Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[Smoove_B]

That CDC posting might also be related to what's happening in Kentucky. Read the labels. Always - or don't and own the libs. Your choice.

The comments come at a time when calls to state poison control centers including Kentucky's have spiked over accidental poisoning or injuries from household cleaners and disinfectants during the coronavirus pandemic.

...

Meanwhile, calls are flooding poison control centers about accidental ingestion or exposure to disinfectants since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, with Kentucky's rate above the national average.

[Isgrimnur]

[LordMortis]

I read the comments Ray...

I have long since culled my FB feed of people who go off. I let myself get pulled in to the mind of a friend of a friend claiming you had to hear the whole thing and not take it out of fake news comments before going off and showing your lack of intelligence and resorting to name calling. She also said something about voting for Trump as many times as she could.

It was everything I could do to not introduce myself where I didn't belong.

My poor country. We're never going to get to where we need to be are we?

Edit:

I'm telling you for Smoove it's gotta be the Dead Milkmen.

[Kraken]

Trump announced that a death toll under 100k would be a huge success. It looks like we're going to plateau around 60k. There's lots of slack left in the budget!

There is a 0.0% chance that we plateau around 60k. One, we might already be past that number once we get all the at-home deaths counted. Two, we are still losing more than 2300 people per day, and we’re already past 50K. Three, a number of states are going to start growing their numbers again because economy.

Then we'll just redefine success as <250k. Problem solved.

[wonderpug]

Trump announced that a death toll under 100k would be a huge success. It looks like we're going to plateau around 60k. There's lots of slack left in the budget!

There is a 0.0% chance that we plateau around 60k. One, we might already be past that number once we get all the at-home deaths counted. Two, we are still losing more than 2300 people per day, and we’re already past 50K. Three, a number of states are going to start growing their numbers again because economy.

Then we'll just redefine success as <250k. Problem solved.

You mean redefine what the original definition was. The 60k figure was sarcastic / taken out of context / her emails / not what he originally said / crossed out with a giant magic marker.

[Smoove_B]

II'm telling you for Smoove it's gotta be the Dead Milkmen.

One of my favorites!

I honestly don't know how people do the social media thing. I've been lurking on FB for about a year now under a pseudonym and I've had to stop myself repeated over the last month from getting into it with yahoos in my area that are MAGA this and Trump Lives Matter that lately.

[Daehawk]

The south shall rise again! And fall dead from some disease we refused to vaccinate for or ignore or claimed was all fake news.

"Billy Joe are you ok? Billy Joe?...OMG! Joe Bob! Joe Bob! Billy Joe has fallen dead! Joe Bob.....? Damn now I gotta find Betty Sue"

[Alefroth]

Biden is staking out a bold stance on this issue.

https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1253751812194070529

And there's his slogan.

[Daehawk]

Shhh be quiet Joe....let it play out.

[Smoove_B]

As a follow up to the Stanford antibody study and how selection bias was introduced:

https://twitter.com/stephaniemlee/statu ... 1292316672

SCOOP: Here's something new about that Stanford COVID-19 antibody study.

In an email I obtained, the wife of the professor leading it recruited people by saying an “FDA approved” test (it's not) would show if they could “return to work without fear.” The preprint only says the study recruited via Facebook. It doesn't mention this email went to a school in a wealthy part of Silicon Valley. It was sent "without my permission or my knowledge or the permission of the research team," the professor says.

As a reminder (and in the article):

Weeks later, early results from Bhattacharya’s team would conclude that, based on the tests, the area had 50 to 85 times more infections than reported cases. That finding, along with their claim that the coronavirus would therefore have a lower fatality rate than previously thought, made national headlines. But almost as immediately, the study came under fire from scientists, who said it was based on a heavily flawed data analysis that ignored questions about the antibody test’s false positive rate — as well as a problematic Facebook recruitment strategy.

Reinforces how important data collection and study design is.

[pr0ner]

Oddly enough, the actual White House transcript doesn't have a question mark after "almost a cleaning". It's a period.

I'll be amazed if that transcript still exists by Monday. I think the official guess is that because the FDA officially came out against Trump's "miracle drug" today, he needed to try to come up with a new magic bullet solution. Disinfecting lungs and UV light inserted into your body it is!

I guess next month he'll be appointing anti-vaccination experts and the new coronavirus miracle cure will be ozone therapy and chelation.

I'm sure Gwyneth Paltrow will have a UV light emitting dildo for sale soon enough.

[LawBeefaroni]

As a follow up to the Stanford antibody study and how selection bias was introduced:

https://twitter.com/stephaniemlee/statu ... 1292316672

SCOOP: Here's something new about that Stanford COVID-19 antibody study.

In an email I obtained, the wife of the professor leading it recruited people by saying an “FDA approved” test (it's not) would show if they could “return to work without fear.” The preprint only says the study recruited via Facebook. It doesn't mention this email went to a school in a wealthy part of Silicon Valley. It was sent "without my permission or my knowledge or the permission of the research team," the professor says.

As a reminder (and in the article):

Weeks later, early results from Bhattacharya’s team would conclude that, based on the tests, the area had 50 to 85 times more infections than reported cases. That finding, along with their claim that the coronavirus would therefore have a lower fatality rate than previously thought, made national headlines. But almost as immediately, the study came under fire from scientists, who said it was based on a heavily flawed data analysis that ignored questions about the antibody test’s false positive rate — as well as a problematic Facebook recruitment strategy.

Reinforces how important data collection and study design is.

Fake it 'til you make it, bruh.


Is there any industry left in this country that isn't compromised by the New American Work Ethic?

[hentzau]

Here's an idea: Instead of the signs that say "Thank you to the health care professionals and 1st responders", how about we replace it with a sign that says "Thank you to everyone who is stepping up in their jobs, regardless of what you do" during this crisis?

Especially IT professionals like me. We are the ones making work from home possible. We are the ones who are enabling the educational system to continue while schools are closed. We are the ones allowing commerce to continue while store fronts are shuddered. Without us your direct deposit would not be possible to be posted to your account.

Speaking as someone also in IT, who has also helped step things up to make my org's work-from-home smooth and efficient: fuck that guy.

Ditto.

[Holman]

https://twitter.com/matthewamiller/stat ... 30082?s=20

[Max Peck]

So... Birx's defence of Trump is that he is ignorant, unprepared and meanders on about any insipid thought that pops into his head?

[noxiousdog]

So... Birx's defence of Trump is that he is ignorant, unprepared and meanders on about any insipid thought that pops into his head?

That is pretty descriptive

[malchior]

Faced with a fight Trump wimped out and rushed out of the briefing. He is such a coward. There is also word that Trump is going to cut back on these rallies...people must have got through to him that they weren't helping him. Without an outlet though...he will meltdown so either he goes on a roadshow or we'll see Twitter outbursts aplenty. Let's see...

[Smoove_B]

Something, something, F your feelings.

[Kraken]

So... Birx's defence of Trump is that he is ignorant, unprepared and meanders on about any insipid thought that pops into his head?

That is pretty descriptive

I prefer "Chaotic Stupid."

[malchior]

Fuck this guy. Another adherent to the school of neo-sociopath economics.

https://twitter.com/nytopinion/status/1 ... 4676141057

Americans are being told they must play by New York rules — with all the hardships they entail — despite having neither New York’s living conditions nor New York’s health outcomes, Bret Stephens writes.

[gbasden]

On groceries, in our experience in Boston so far it's possible to get grocery deliveries, but with a 2 week lag, and it's not at all rare to have grocery store delivery periods fully booked up. We got one delivery near the beginning of this process (about a month ago), and I think we got on the schedule for a delivery two weeks from now. But otherwise we're mostly venturing out to the grocery store once every 1.5 to 2 weeks.

Though my wife (who has been doing the shopping) tells me that the local grocery stores seem to be holding up ok - well stocked, people keeping their distance for the most part.

I'm surprised. Slots in Sacramento appear to be widely available. I ordered from Safeway last week with a two day wait, and when I put my Costco order in today there were slots ranging from now out through four days from now open.

[Blackhawk]

Looks like we just logged the most new cases in one day to date. Plateau, yeah, OK.

[Zaxxon]

Looks like we just logged the most new cases in one day to date. Plateau, yeah, OK.

We'll hit a million cases on Monday. Around 760,000 still open. Even assuming only a 1% fatality rate, that puts us past 60k eventual deaths already.

[hepcat]

Comedy gold

https://twitter.com/Amy_Siskind/status/ ... 2020-04-24

[malchior]

On groceries, in our experience in Boston so far it's possible to get grocery deliveries, but with a 2 week lag, and it's not at all rare to have grocery store delivery periods fully booked up. We got one delivery near the beginning of this process (about a month ago), and I think we got on the schedule for a delivery two weeks from now. But otherwise we're mostly venturing out to the grocery store once every 1.5 to 2 weeks.

Though my wife (who has been doing the shopping) tells me that the local grocery stores seem to be holding up ok - well stocked, people keeping their distance for the most part.

I'm surprised. Slots in Sacramento appear to be widely available. I ordered from Safeway last week with a two day wait, and when I put my Costco order in today there were slots ranging from now out through four days from now open.

I've talked about how hard it is here. The Shoprites in my area have shrunk the windows to the next 6 days. I think the idea is that it keeps people from booking repeat windows periodically. Still this is what I see everywhere. Peapod. Acme. Instacart. Everything here. It's pure lottery.

[Unagi]

My vernacular for something hitting a plateau means we've normalized at a peak, so to me "plateauing around 60,000 deaths" means we stabilize a rate or start to see a decline in rate. If that is the context then we simply mean the curve is just beginning to flatten at 60,000 deaths and we can start to plan on moving to phase 2 of "opening up" on a small basis and then doing all the additional tracing and testing and stuff left for people smarter than me.

Maybe I misunderstood Kraken? To me it seemed like indicating that we would level off at 60k deaths, which we most certainly won't.

I dunno that you misunderstood anything. I just know when using plateau in that context it is weird to me.

Yeah, We aren't plateauing at 60k in any sense.

[Alefroth]

Looks like we just logged the most new cases in one day to date. Plateau, yeah, OK.

They may have been slow to get started, but rural areas are really starting to roll.

[Isgrimnur]

And we're headed to reopen everything. Whee!

[Max Peck]

Comedy gold

https://twitter.com/Amy_Siskind/status/ ... 5800899584

When I first saw this video, I thought that perhaps Birx was horrified by what Trump was saying. Now we know that she was just scrambling to think of a way to spin it as being just fine.

[malchior]

Looks like we just logged the most new cases in one day to date. Plateau, yeah, OK.

Yep by my count we just hit the new max for confirmed cases. Almost 37K new cases yesterday. On the personal front, a teammate of my wife got it. Probably while working at a nursing home. She is in her early 20s so hopefully that'll be fine.

And we're headed to reopen everything. Whee!

The increase has been relatively linear so controls are keeping it 'manageable'. We'll see if it goes exponential again if these southern states give it up. Yikes. If it does, the "red" Governors will own it because Trump's own guidelines say don't 'open it up'. Trump has a perfect set up to shift the blame to the governors even if he is the one goading them on. Perhaps that is why his advisors are trying to keep him under wraps. They know it'll be bad but at least there won't be tape of him saying 'open it up' like a carnival barker.

[Max Peck]

Nate Silver's take on how things are progressing.

Coronavirus Cases Are Still Growing In Many U.S. States

Last week, I wrote about how New York has successfully bent the coronavirus curve after an extended period of social distancing. The evidence this week is even stronger. As of Wednesday, just 27.6 percent of newly reported COVID-19 tests in New York City were positive, still a fairly high rate — but substantially down from a peak of 59.4 percent on March 29. Other states are also seeing a decline in new cases — Louisiana, in particular, has seen a highly encouraging turnaround.

Unfortunately, though, New York and Louisiana aren’t the norm. In fact, there isn’t really any norm. While the situation in many states is improving, in nearly half of all states in the U.S., there are as many COVID-19 cases as ever, and in some cases, even more.



As I’ve written before, the number of new confirmed cases can be a deceptive indicator of how much the coronavirus is spreading unless you also account for how many tests are conducted. But the stubborn persistence of the novel coronavirus in many parts of the country isn’t just an artifact of rising testing volume.

In fact, the number of tests has been at a plateau for several weeks in the U.S. But that isn’t necessarily the case in individual states. So in this article, I’ll go through some additional calculations to estimate how the share of positive tests has changed in each state over the past several weeks. Before I go into more detail, though, you should know that the conclusions would largely be the same with whatever metric I chose. Newly diagnosed cases, the positive test rate and the number of deaths are all showing progress in some states — but getting worse in plenty of others. In other words, the United States has not yet turned the corner nationwide.

[malchior]

Nate Silver's take on how things are progressing.

Coronavirus Cases Are Still Growing In Many U.S. States

Last week, I wrote about how New York has successfully bent the coronavirus curve after an extended period of social distancing. The evidence this week is even stronger. As of Wednesday, just 27.6 percent of newly reported COVID-19 tests in New York City were positive, still a fairly high rate — but substantially down from a peak of 59.4 percent on March 29. Other states are also seeing a decline in new cases — Louisiana, in particular, has seen a highly encouraging turnaround.

Good piece. This reinforces how uncoordinated this is. Our nation is beyond dysfunctional. We knew it coming into this but the GOP has crippled our nation. And they deserve a reckoning. Let's hope the Democrats figure out a way to tell the story. As things stand if the current trend line survives through end of next month we're looking at ~125K dead. If it gets better we're nearer to 100K and if it gets worse it could be 175K. We have a decent chance of blowing through the top of their 220K estimate early to mid July if the trend continues. It's hard to gauge how unlikely that is now.

Also, the origin of the disinfectant claim has been documented.

https://twitter.com/DanWilbur/status/12 ... 4780893184

This photo is incredible. You can see the idea percolating in his mind. “Why has no one thought of this. The answer is right in front of us. I will say it. I’ll be the hero we need.”

[Smoove_B]

As I mentioned yesterday, we're still learning about all this and sometimes what we're learning isn't good:

Catching COVID-19 once may not protect you from getting it again, according to the World Health Organization, a finding that could jeopardize efforts to allow people to return to work after recovering from the virus.

“There is currently no evidence that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection,” the United Nations agency said in an April 24 statement.

The WHO guidance came after some governments suggested that people who have antibodies to the coronavirus could be issued an “immunity passport” or “risk-free certificate” that would allow them to travel or return to work, based on the assumption that they were safe from re-infection, according to the statement. People issued such a certificate could ignore public-health guidance, increasing the risk of the disease spreading further.

As a reminder:

While there’s a consensus that the key to ending the coronavirus pandemic is establishing co-called herd immunity, there are many unknowns. One is whether researchers can develop a safe and effective vaccine. Another is how long people who’ve recovered have immunity; reinfection after months or years is common with other human coronaviruses. Finally, it’s not clear what percentage of people must be immune to protect the “herd.” That depends on the contagiousness of the virus.

[Max Peck]

I read the WHO statement earlier today. My take-away was that they were cautioning against assuming that antibodies confer immunity, given that there have not yet been any studies to confirm that this is the case.

As of 24 April 2020, no study has evaluated whether the presence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 confers immunity to subsequent infection by this virus in humans.

I didn't take this as bad news per se (bad news would be if there were studies and they found that immunity was not conferred), but simply that it would be premature to use "immunity passports" as part of a plan to re-open the economy prior to such studies being conducted and confirming that the antibodies confer immunity.

[Smoove_B]

The "bad news" is that it throws a giant wet blanket on the idea that having the disease confers future protections - because there's no proof of that (yet). Communities making plans based on the idea that people who've had the disease are now able to circulate back into "normal" society might end up causing another outbreak. It will be worse news when the studies come out saying there's no long-term immunity (which is kind of what we'd expect knowing what we know about other coronaviruses). Maybe this will be different...but I continue to fall back on the fact that we've yet to develop any vaccine for a single coronavirus.

[malchior]

Maybe this will be different...but I continue to fall back on the fact that we've yet to develop any vaccine for a single coronavirus.

Necessity is the mother of invention. And we really need this one.

Ignore the twitter user. He is one of the most intellectually inconsistent monsters on the right but he is a useful canary.

https://twitter.com/Cernovich/status/12 ... 6382509057

[Unagi]

So what’s the prognosis?

Eventually we all get it, and get it again, until the time we get it and die? The longer we do social distancing, the longer we give ourselves?

[Max Peck]

Fair enough. I just didn't see a statement that we don't yet know whether exposure and recovery grants immunity as learning something not-good. We already knew that we didn't know one way or the other until studies are conducted to confirm it.

Nonetheless, I can see being told to hold up and not make assumptions vis-à-vis immunity would be bad news to plan-makers who had been making that assumption. Sadly, the ones rushing to reopen everything are already predisposed to ignore the WHO, so they'll likely file it under fake news rather than bad news.

[Smoove_B]

Necessity is the mother of invention. And we really need this one.

I hope so. For decades it was the same with Ebola - no treatments, no vaccinations. Then once it appeared in the United States magically they figured something out. SARS and MERS aren't problems here and no one is dying from the coronavirus contributions to the common cold. I try not to be cynical but it's pretty hard. My understanding with the coronaviruses and a lack of vaccination was a technical one - how they infect cells and our inability to (scientifically) address that. Similar to how we magically learned more about Ebola over ~2 years than the prior 30, perhaps the same will happen here. If you want to read more about the miracle Ebola vaccination, you can here. I know it won't come as a surprise, but it involves making money. This is why if we actually get to the point where a vaccine can be released for COVID-19, depending on the group/county that figures it out is going to start asking about recovering costs. Lord help us if it's an American company and Trump is still in office.

[Smoove_B]

So what’s the prognosis?

Eventually we all get it, and get it again, until the time we get it and die? The longer we do social distancing, the longer we give ourselves?

Maybe. As I said, we're still learning about all this. When this all started months ago I said normally I find this part of public health really exciting - learning about new diseases. Now? Not so much. It's a little terrifying to be at the mercy of a string of infectious proteins.

For something like MERS (the prior most famous coronavirus), I believe immunity post-exposure was provided for something like 24 months (based on testing / monitoring antibodies). If that happens here, that would be terrific and would be helpful in opening things back up. However, if immunity only persists 24-36 months, then we're going to have COVID outbreaks every few years as it re-circulates and reinfects people. Will prior exposure afford any protection? Maybe. If immunity only lasts 3-6 months, it's a very different picture - particularly with the half-assed nature of how it's being handled here in the US with some states fully locked down and others at various levels of operation. We're going to find out soon enough, unfortunately. Assuming this really was widespread in China by December, that's where I'd be looking right now to get data. Let's see how those people that were infected are doing ~6 months later with their antibody counts. Of course that requires cooperation and we have a moron for a President.