Octopus Overlords

The comments come at a time when calls to state poison control centers including Kentucky's have spiked over accidental poisoning or injuries from household cleaners and disinfectants during the coronavirus pandemic.

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Meanwhile, calls are flooding poison control centers about accidental ingestion or exposure to disinfectants since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, with Kentucky's rate above the national average.

RunningMn9 wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:19 pm

Kraken wrote:Trump announced that a death toll under 100k would be a huge success. It looks like we're going to plateau around 60k. There's lots of slack left in the budget!

There is a 0.0% chance that we plateau around 60k. One, we might already be past that number once we get all the at-home deaths counted. Two, we are still losing more than 2300 people per day, and we’re already past 50K. Three, a number of states are going to start growing their numbers again because economy.

Kraken wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 3:50 pm

RunningMn9 wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:19 pm

Kraken wrote:Trump announced that a death toll under 100k would be a huge success. It looks like we're going to plateau around 60k. There's lots of slack left in the budget!

There is a 0.0% chance that we plateau around 60k. One, we might already be past that number once we get all the at-home deaths counted. Two, we are still losing more than 2300 people per day, and we’re already past 50K. Three, a number of states are going to start growing their numbers again because economy.

Then we'll just redefine success as <250k. Problem solved.

LordMortis wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 3:48 pm II'm telling you for Smoove it's gotta be the Dead Milkmen.

El Guapo wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 3:06 pm Biden is staking out a bold stance on this issue.

https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1253751812194070529

In an email I obtained, the wife of the professor leading it recruited people by saying an “FDA approved” test (it's not) would show if they could “return to work without fear.” The preprint only says the study recruited via Facebook. It doesn't mention this email went to a school in a wealthy part of Silicon Valley. It was sent "without my permission or my knowledge or the permission of the research team," the professor says.

Weeks later, early results from Bhattacharya’s team would conclude that, based on the tests, the area had 50 to 85 times more infections than reported cases. That finding, along with their claim that the coronavirus would therefore have a lower fatality rate than previously thought, made national headlines. But almost as immediately, the study came under fire from scientists, who said it was based on a heavily flawed data analysis that ignored questions about the antibody test’s false positive rate — as well as a problematic Facebook recruitment strategy.

Smoove_B wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 3:17 pm

pr0ner wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:58 pmOddly enough, the actual White House transcript doesn't have a question mark after "almost a cleaning". It's a period.

I'll be amazed if that transcript still exists by Monday. I think the official guess is that because the FDA officially came out against Trump's "miracle drug" today, he needed to try to come up with a new magic bullet solution. Disinfecting lungs and UV light inserted into your body it is!

I guess next month he'll be appointing anti-vaccination experts and the new coronavirus miracle cure will be ozone therapy and chelation.

Smoove_B wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 4:17 pm As a follow up to the Stanford antibody study and how selection bias was introduced:

https://twitter.com/stephaniemlee/statu ... 1292316672

SCOOP: Here's something new about that Stanford COVID-19 antibody study.

In an email I obtained, the wife of the professor leading it recruited people by saying an “FDA approved” test (it's not) would show if they could “return to work without fear.” The preprint only says the study recruited via Facebook. It doesn't mention this email went to a school in a wealthy part of Silicon Valley. It was sent "without my permission or my knowledge or the permission of the research team," the professor says.

As a reminder (and in the article):

Weeks later, early results from Bhattacharya’s team would conclude that, based on the tests, the area had 50 to 85 times more infections than reported cases. That finding, along with their claim that the coronavirus would therefore have a lower fatality rate than previously thought, made national headlines. But almost as immediately, the study came under fire from scientists, who said it was based on a heavily flawed data analysis that ignored questions about the antibody test’s false positive rate — as well as a problematic Facebook recruitment strategy.

Reinforces how important data collection and study design is.

Zaxxon wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:52 pm

malchior wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:31 pmHere's an idea: Instead of the signs that say "Thank you to the health care professionals and 1st responders", how about we replace it with a sign that says "Thank you to everyone who is stepping up in their jobs, regardless of what you do" during this crisis?

Especially IT professionals like me. We are the ones making work from home possible. We are the ones who are enabling the educational system to continue while schools are closed. We are the ones allowing commerce to continue while store fronts are shuddered. Without us your direct deposit would not be possible to be posted to your account.

Speaking as someone also in IT, who has also helped step things up to make my org's work-from-home smooth and efficient: fuck that guy.

Max Peck wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 6:11 pm So... Birx's defence of Trump is that he is ignorant, unprepared and meanders on about any insipid thought that pops into his head?

noxiousdog wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 6:15 pm

Max Peck wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 6:11 pm So... Birx's defence of Trump is that he is ignorant, unprepared and meanders on about any insipid thought that pops into his head?

That is pretty descriptive

Americans are being told they must play by New York rules — with all the hardships they entail — despite having neither New York’s living conditions nor New York’s health outcomes, Bret Stephens writes.

El Guapo wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:44 pm On groceries, in our experience in Boston so far it's possible to get grocery deliveries, but with a 2 week lag, and it's not at all rare to have grocery store delivery periods fully booked up. We got one delivery near the beginning of this process (about a month ago), and I think we got on the schedule for a delivery two weeks from now. But otherwise we're mostly venturing out to the grocery store once every 1.5 to 2 weeks.

Though my wife (who has been doing the shopping) tells me that the local grocery stores seem to be holding up ok - well stocked, people keeping their distance for the most part.

Blackhawk wrote:Looks like we just logged the most new cases in one day to date. Plateau, yeah, OK.

gbasden wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 10:54 pm

El Guapo wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:44 pm On groceries, in our experience in Boston so far it's possible to get grocery deliveries, but with a 2 week lag, and it's not at all rare to have grocery store delivery periods fully booked up. We got one delivery near the beginning of this process (about a month ago), and I think we got on the schedule for a delivery two weeks from now. But otherwise we're mostly venturing out to the grocery store once every 1.5 to 2 weeks.

Though my wife (who has been doing the shopping) tells me that the local grocery stores seem to be holding up ok - well stocked, people keeping their distance for the most part.

I'm surprised. Slots in Sacramento appear to be widely available. I ordered from Safeway last week with a two day wait, and when I put my Costco order in today there were slots ranging from now out through four days from now open.

LordMortis wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:27 pm

RunningMn9 wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:24 pm

LordMortis wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:27 pmMy vernacular for something hitting a plateau means we've normalized at a peak, so to me "plateauing around 60,000 deaths" means we stabilize a rate or start to see a decline in rate. If that is the context then we simply mean the curve is just beginning to flatten at 60,000 deaths and we can start to plan on moving to phase 2 of "opening up" on a small basis and then doing all the additional tracing and testing and stuff left for people smarter than me.

Maybe I misunderstood Kraken? To me it seemed like indicating that we would level off at 60k deaths, which we most certainly won't.

I dunno that you misunderstood anything. I just know when using plateau in that context it is weird to me.

Blackhawk wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 11:00 pm Looks like we just logged the most new cases in one day to date. Plateau, yeah, OK.

hepcat wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 11:07 pm Comedy gold

https://twitter.com/Amy_Siskind/status/ ... 5800899584

Blackhawk wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 11:00 pm Looks like we just logged the most new cases in one day to date. Plateau, yeah, OK.

Isgrimnur wrote: Fri Apr 24, 2020 11:26 pm And we're headed to reopen everything. Whee!

Last week, I wrote about how New York has successfully bent the coronavirus curve after an extended period of social distancing. The evidence this week is even stronger. As of Wednesday, just 27.6 percent of newly reported COVID-19 tests in New York City were positive, still a fairly high rate — but substantially down from a peak of 59.4 percent on March 29. Other states are also seeing a decline in new cases — Louisiana, in particular, has seen a highly encouraging turnaround.

Unfortunately, though, New York and Louisiana aren’t the norm. In fact, there isn’t really any norm. While the situation in many states is improving, in nearly half of all states in the U.S., there are as many COVID-19 cases as ever, and in some cases, even more.



As I’ve written before, the number of new confirmed cases can be a deceptive indicator of how much the coronavirus is spreading unless you also account for how many tests are conducted. But the stubborn persistence of the novel coronavirus in many parts of the country isn’t just an artifact of rising testing volume.

In fact, the number of tests has been at a plateau for several weeks in the U.S. But that isn’t necessarily the case in individual states. So in this article, I’ll go through some additional calculations to estimate how the share of positive tests has changed in each state over the past several weeks. Before I go into more detail, though, you should know that the conclusions would largely be the same with whatever metric I chose. Newly diagnosed cases, the positive test rate and the number of deaths are all showing progress in some states — but getting worse in plenty of others. In other words, the United States has not yet turned the corner nationwide.

Max Peck wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2020 8:22 am Nate Silver's take on how things are progressing.

Coronavirus Cases Are Still Growing In Many U.S. States

Last week, I wrote about how New York has successfully bent the coronavirus curve after an extended period of social distancing. The evidence this week is even stronger. As of Wednesday, just 27.6 percent of newly reported COVID-19 tests in New York City were positive, still a fairly high rate — but substantially down from a peak of 59.4 percent on March 29. Other states are also seeing a decline in new cases — Louisiana, in particular, has seen a highly encouraging turnaround.

This photo is incredible. You can see the idea percolating in his mind. “Why has no one thought of this. The answer is right in front of us. I will say it. I’ll be the hero we need.”

Catching COVID-19 once may not protect you from getting it again, according to the World Health Organization, a finding that could jeopardize efforts to allow people to return to work after recovering from the virus.

“There is currently no evidence that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection,” the United Nations agency said in an April 24 statement.

The WHO guidance came after some governments suggested that people who have antibodies to the coronavirus could be issued an “immunity passport” or “risk-free certificate” that would allow them to travel or return to work, based on the assumption that they were safe from re-infection, according to the statement. People issued such a certificate could ignore public-health guidance, increasing the risk of the disease spreading further.

While there’s a consensus that the key to ending the coronavirus pandemic is establishing co-called herd immunity, there are many unknowns. One is whether researchers can develop a safe and effective vaccine. Another is how long people who’ve recovered have immunity; reinfection after months or years is common with other human coronaviruses. Finally, it’s not clear what percentage of people must be immune to protect the “herd.” That depends on the contagiousness of the virus.

As of 24 April 2020, no study has evaluated whether the presence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 confers immunity to subsequent infection by this virus in humans.

Smoove_B wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2020 1:36 pmMaybe this will be different...but I continue to fall back on the fact that we've yet to develop any vaccine for a single coronavirus.

Necessity is the mother of invention. And we really need this one.

Unagi wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2020 1:53 pm So what’s the prognosis?

Eventually we all get it, and get it again, until the time we get it and die? The longer we do social distancing, the longer we give ourselves?