Octopus Overlords

Took an afternoon peek. The market appears to be on steroids right now. Had to buy back and push out a bunch of calls on my covered positions. Made a few short term $100s. Not sure if that will be an opportunity cost long run but I think a bunch of my positions have inflated values, and I don't want to jump off the ride, so we'll see what happens.

I haven't been watching/hearing the news. Is something special causing the euphoria of the last 48 hours? Are tapering plans really making that many people happy? Are this week's earnings so much different than last week's earnings? Did the supply chain suddenly start flowing? Is there a secret sauce about to be released in the Infrastructure bill I missed?

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Nov 03, 2021 1:03 pm Played CWH earnings. $38.5 to $42. I had a position already and kept it but sold what I added yesterday.

KOPN having a good couple of days.



ATVI getting destroyed but not buying yet.

I didn't bite on your KOPN tip (but to be fair, I ran out of clock, and wasn't able to buy anything)!

Hanesbrands Inc. (HBI) reported third-quarter net income of $151.8 million, or 43 cents per share, up from $103.3 million, or 29 cents per share, last year. Adjusted EPS of 53 cents beat the FactSet consensus for 47 cents. Sales of $1.790 billion were up from $1.692 billion last year and below the FactSet consensus for $1.801 billion. Sales of innerwear, which includes items like socks, fell 11% due to overlap with sales of personal protective equipment (PPE) last year. Hanesbrands expects the sale of its European innerwear business to an affiliate of Regent L.P. to be complete by the first quarter of 2022. The company maintained its fourth-quarter sales guidance for $1.71 billion to $1.78 billion, EPS in the range of 24 cents to 29 cents and adjusted EPS in the range of 40 cents to 45 cents. The FactSet consensus is for sales of $1.745 billion and EPS of 42 cents. For the year, Hanesbrands is guiding for sales of $6.76 billion to $6.83 billion, EPS in the range of $1.53 to $1.58 and adjusted EPS in the range of $1.79 to $1.84. The FactSet consensus is for EPS of $6.808 billion and EPS of $1.75. Hanesbrands stock edged down 0.2% in Thursday premarket trading, and has gained 25.4% for the year to date. The S&P 500 index is up 24% for 2021 so far.

-Tonya Garcia

HBI back down to $18.10. Kinda what I thought would happen. And why I'd have to always check myself. I still think it was good at $17.50 with a $.50 option for Friday. It can take a bit of hit from this and still have been a good buy. Getting more yesterday would have been a sucker's bet I would have been tempted to make because I'm stupid.

Seeing the rising tide, it's getting hard to stick to me build cash guns.

LordMortis wrote: Thu Nov 04, 2021 9:16 amSeeing the rising tide, it's getting hard to stick to me build cash guns.

Speaking of...

Tesla stock just made the biggest 12-day gain in the history of capital markets

In a week plus two business days, Tesla's market value mushroomed from $818 billion to $1.21 trillion, for an increase of roughly $392 billion.

The four previous members of the trillion-dollar club that Tesla just joined have also enjoyed huge, sudden spurts in market cap in raging bull market for tech and social media over the past year. Although Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet all started at valuations of over $1 trillion 12 months ago, well above Tesla's level when it began the almost $400 billion rampage, none of their spikes matched Tesla's stupendous surge.

I know most others here long ago exited this train, so, you know, carry on and stuff. I certainly understand the skepticism, but can't say the way this has played out has been at all surprising to me. In any event, selling options has been fun and eventful these past months.

Zaxxon wrote: Thu Nov 04, 2021 9:28 am

LordMortis wrote: Thu Nov 04, 2021 9:16 amSeeing the rising tide, it's getting hard to stick to me build cash guns.

Speaking of...

Tesla stock just made the biggest 12-day gain in the history of capital markets

In a week plus two business days, Tesla's market value mushroomed from $818 billion to $1.21 trillion, for an increase of roughly $392 billion.

The four previous members of the trillion-dollar club that Tesla just joined have also enjoyed huge, sudden spurts in market cap in raging bull market for tech and social media over the past year. Although Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet all started at valuations of over $1 trillion 12 months ago, well above Tesla's level when it began the almost $400 billion rampage, none of their spikes matched Tesla's stupendous surge.

I know most others here long ago exited this train, so, you know, carry on and stuff. I certainly understand the skepticism, but can't say the way this has played out has been at all surprising to me. In any event, selling options has been fun and eventful these past months.

Yeah, I forget how many thousands you needed to retire, but you really should have hit it by now. It's well about $5000 pre-split. I don't get it. I literally wouldn't bet against it but hey more power to you. The company doesn't need my blessing to be valued at well into the trillion mark and still doing cash raises when everyone else is doing buy backs.

Heck, I want an it to RIVIAN but not at 54 billion.

Zaxxon wrote: Thu Nov 04, 2021 9:28 am

LordMortis wrote: Thu Nov 04, 2021 9:16 amSeeing the rising tide, it's getting hard to stick to me build cash guns.

Speaking of...

Tesla stock just made the biggest 12-day gain in the history of capital markets

In a week plus two business days, Tesla's market value mushroomed from $818 billion to $1.21 trillion, for an increase of roughly $392 billion.

The four previous members of the trillion-dollar club that Tesla just joined have also enjoyed huge, sudden spurts in market cap in raging bull market for tech and social media over the past year. Although Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet all started at valuations of over $1 trillion 12 months ago, well above Tesla's level when it began the almost $400 billion rampage, none of their spikes matched Tesla's stupendous surge.

I know most others here long ago exited this train, so, you know, carry on and stuff. I certainly understand the skepticism, but can't say the way this has played out has been at all surprising to me. In any event, selling options has been fun and eventful these past months.

It's impressive to be sure but market cap doesn't really impact the average investor. A 48% gain in a week is also incredible but dwarfed by the meme shit going on where stocks move 1000% in a day or two. TSLA is becoming a relatively "safe" stock now IMO with everyone pouring into the endless garbage.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Nov 04, 2021 9:46 am It's impressive to be sure but market cap doesn't really impact the average investor.

Average trader, no. Average investor, it absolutely does.

VSTO reported a 65% increase in ammo sales in the midst of a huge shortage.

Vista Outdoor (VSTO) came out with quarterly earnings of $2.41 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.77 per share. This compares to earnings of $1.10 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.

Zaxxon wrote: Thu Nov 04, 2021 9:49 am

LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Nov 04, 2021 9:46 am It's impressive to be sure but market cap doesn't really impact the average investor.

Average trader, no. Average investor, it absolutely does.

"Single largest market cap gain" is just a factor of the size of the market cap. Overcoming the law of big numbers is important, of course, but for most investors market cap is just a category. Mega cap, large cap, etc. Yeah, it also effects borrowing and raising capital but share price drives market cap, not the other way around.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Nov 04, 2021 10:00 am

Zaxxon wrote: Thu Nov 04, 2021 9:49 am

LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Nov 04, 2021 9:46 am It's impressive to be sure but market cap doesn't really impact the average investor.

Average trader, no. Average investor, it absolutely does.

"Single largest market cap gain" is just a factor of the size of the market cap. Overcoming the law of big numbers is important, of course, but for most investors market cap is just a category. Mega cap, large cap, etc. Yeah, it also effects borrowing and raising capital but share price drives market cap, not the other way around.

My point is we're not actually talking about ~800B to 1.2T for 'investors.' We're talking ~40B (or 200B, etc) to 1.2T, or whatever.

Zaxxon wrote: Thu Nov 04, 2021 10:31 am

LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Nov 04, 2021 10:00 am

Zaxxon wrote: Thu Nov 04, 2021 9:49 am

LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Nov 04, 2021 9:46 am It's impressive to be sure but market cap doesn't really impact the average investor.

Average trader, no. Average investor, it absolutely does.

"Single largest market cap gain" is just a factor of the size of the market cap. Overcoming the law of big numbers is important, of course, but for most investors market cap is just a category. Mega cap, large cap, etc. Yeah, it also effects borrowing and raising capital but share price drives market cap, not the other way around.

My point is we're not actually talking about ~800B to 1.2T for 'investors.' We're talking ~40B (or 200B, etc) to 1.2T, or whatever.

Which only matters to them since it reflects the share price from whatever $40 split adjusted (or whatever) to $1220.


I mean it's kind of chicken/egg but no one logs in to check market cap.

A few months ago (?) I sold all but 2 of my AMZN shares, after many many years of holding.

Two shares is basically nothing but a token (this is in my retirement account FWIW), but I'm more interested in the investing idea and thought process than the financial result here.

My hypothesis: It's a bad idea to hold a company like AMZN in an inflationary environment.

Discuss.

I should probably edit that to just say "AMZN" because I can't think of another company LIKE Amazon. My meaning is "growth/aggressive growth" stock...although hell, that could be argued about AMZN these days, given their size and market dominance.

Carpet_pissr wrote: Thu Nov 04, 2021 3:02 pm A few months ago (?) I sold all but 2 of my AMZN shares, after many many years of holding.

Two shares is basically nothing but a token (this is in my retirement account FWIW), but I'm more interested in the investing idea and thought process than the financial result here.

My hypothesis: It's a bad idea to hold a company like AMZN in an inflationary environment.

Discuss.

I should probably edit that to just say "AMZN" because I can't think of another company LIKE Amazon. My meaning is "growth/aggressive growth" stock...although hell, that could be argued about AMZN these days, given their size and market dominance.

AMZN is a great company to hold in an inflationary environment. They have ultimate pricing power in both retail and AWS.

The companies that suffer in inflationary environments are those with high revolving debt (short term maturities as their newly issued debt will be more expensive) and those that don't have pricing power.. ie, luxury goods.... stuff that people don't need.

AMZN is so heavily represented in all my ETFs that there is no point in owning them separately. By Value of positions held, SPY is my largest position and AMZN is is 3.76% of my SPY. Next is VTI. AMZN is 3.19% of VTI. Next is VT. AMZN is 1.9% of VT. Between those three position, that's nearly 50% of all my equities. Making AMZN 2.5%+ of everything I own, putting them on par with my top 9 holdings SPY, VTI, and VT inclusive.

... Of course if you put it all together that's the value of maybe 3 shares of AMZN, so "basically nothing but a token" is a matter of perspective.

Yeah, sorry, hope that didn’t come across wrong. ‘Token’ compared to how much I had before. Before I sold, Amazon grew to be something absurd like 20 -25% of my entire retirement savings if not more.

Not at all. I'm happy to be part of the game.

Huh. Here's a new to me thing:

Apparently one of my holdings just vanished overnight (rather, two weeks ago). No news. No nothing. Fidelity, TD Ameritrade, you name a broker or bank, they pretend as if it doesn't exist, and never did. WTF. Not even a message, or whatever in my trading account about it!

GSHHY - Guangshen Railway (ADR) It last traded at $9.20 about 2 weeks ago, then POOF. Dead after that.

Bought on the strong recommendation by Morningstar years ago, and just have been holding hoping it will come back enough for me to sell some (thank GOD I did sell about half around 6 months ago. Still, I assume I am just holding the bag here, no way to sell since it's been delisted (and not relisted apparently).

TD guy said it COULD have something to do with the Trump stuff against China a couple years ago. Many companies (Chinese) are delisting in response to that according to him.

Anyway, I was already very suspicious of Morningstar stock recommendations over the past few years. It's like their analysis and resulting accuracy just dropped off a cliff. They used to be very good, very thorough (if a bit conservative for my tastes), DCF analysis. Then something changed. I do wonder if they were bought out, because all of a sudden they got a ton of new analysts, and all the oldies whose work I knew, were gone. And sure enough, their recommendations followed as well. So bad that I completely stopped looking at them when I was considering investing in something. They may still be good at what they made their name for (fund analysis), but I doubt that as well.

Edit/update: To be fair, M* probably could not have seen this coming, since apparently it was JP Morgan, who holds the ADR on the US side, that pulled the stock off the exchange. Spoke with someone in 'Corporate Actions' at Ameritrade who said it's in 'purgatory', and that JP Morgan MAY (he said that word MAY is weird, since the notes normally say WILL in these kinds of cases) pay out in 6 months or so. SOMEthing. Wow, talk about ambiguous! I may or may not be paid something for my shares in a couple of weeks, 6 months, or never.

Guy said he could give me the number to his counterpart at JPM, but said they probably wouldn't tell me anything specific, so I declined.

I'm chafed, but not raging bc it represents about .01% of my retirement portfolio, and I had basically written it off long ago, mentally. Only wish I had just sold all as opposed to half or most of it those several months ago. More than anything, I hate loose threads or inaccuracies in my investment accounts like this. It's complicated enough, I don't need this extra bullshit mucking up the muckiness.

M* was touting as recently as June.

Ticker
GSHHY

Current yield:
4.27%

Forward P/E:
185.19

Price
$9.92


Fair value:
$23.50

Value
58% discount

Moat
None

Moat Trend
Stable

Star rating
*****

Data as of June 28, 2021

Probably a good reason it was at a 58% discount. Not that such bargains don't exist but they're usually hidden a bit better.

I've never followed M* for anything other than funds.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Fri Nov 05, 2021 12:57 pm Probably a good reason it was at a 58% discount. Not that such bargains don't exist but they're usually hidden a bit better.

I've never followed M* for anything other than funds.

I've only ever used Morningstar for mutual fund advice, too.

I'm questioning that (fund advice) now, considering the above. It looks like all the analysts that were so strong (admitedly this was like...15 years ago or so) are gone now.

Yeah, honestly since I moved the bulk of my 401K to brokerage, I don't really look at funds anymore. My current employer is a different 401K with funds but I just put those in sectors and indexes, don't care about the find ratings. I also have another smaller orphan 401k that I put entirely in bonds funds. Just because.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Fri Nov 05, 2021 2:49 pm Yeah, honestly since I moved the bulk of my 401K to brokerage, I don't really look at funds anymore. My current employer is a different 401K with funds but I just put those in sectors and indexes, don't care about the find ratings. I also have another smaller orphan 401k that I put entirely in bonds funds. Just because.

Yeah, same. The last time I actually looked for research on a fund was so long ago I don't remember. Once I have a handful set, I don't really go back and revisit (probably should, every once in a while, to make sure it's still no load, low fees, whatnot, etc). It's not like I'm in and out of different funds constantly, where ready access to research would be useful.

I also don't generally put money in quirky, unknown funds. Almost all of mine are Vanguard, or Fidelity (with maybe a couple of Dodge and Cox thrown in for good measure).

Sometimes the simplicity of the TSP is a wonderful thing.

One thing M* did well though, for a while, was their interactive tool set. They had fantastic filters, pre-defined or customized (I remember one filter called “Ben Graham stocks” for example). They also had fantastic portfolio tools, rebalances, checkers, etc. Most if not all those features are now included with accounts at Fidelity, TD Ameritrade, and I assume others.

AFAIK they were the first and best at that kind of thing (stock comparisons, stock pickers, etc). I had a premium subscription for many years (decade+) before finding out that my local library had a sub that I could access.

LordMortis wrote: Thu Nov 04, 2021 9:41 am Heck, I want an it to RIVIAN but not at 54 billion.

How about $65b then? LOL

(Reuters) -Rivian Automotive, backed by Amazon.com Inc, on Friday significantly raised the expected offer price of its shares, with the electric vehicle manufacturer aiming for a valuation of as much as $65 billion in its initial public offering.

noxiousdog wrote:

Carpet_pissr wrote: Thu Nov 04, 2021 3:02 pm A few months ago (?) I sold all but 2 of my AMZN shares, after many many years of holding.

Two shares is basically nothing but a token (this is in my retirement account FWIW), but I'm more interested in the investing idea and thought process than the financial result here.

My hypothesis: It's a bad idea to hold a company like AMZN in an inflationary environment.

Discuss.

I should probably edit that to just say "AMZN" because I can't think of another company LIKE Amazon. My meaning is "growth/aggressive growth" stock...although hell, that could be argued about AMZN these days, given their size and market dominance.

AMZN is a great company to hold in an inflationary environment. They have ultimate pricing power in both retail and AWS.

The companies that suffer in inflationary environments are those with high revolving debt (short term maturities as their newly issued debt will be more expensive) and those that don't have pricing power.. ie, luxury goods.... stuff that people don't need.

AMZN still gets most of its profit from AWS, not retail, AFAIK.

Carpet_pissr wrote:

LordMortis wrote: Thu Nov 04, 2021 9:41 am Heck, I want an it to RIVIAN but not at 54 billion.

How about $65b then? LOL

(Reuters) -Rivian Automotive, backed by Amazon.com Inc, on Friday significantly raised the expected offer price of its shares, with the electric vehicle manufacturer aiming for a valuation of as much as $65 billion in its initial public offering.

They look good, but I have issues like spare parts, and ramp up. What's their supply chain look like?

Tesla is diversified and more of an energy company than a car company. Is Rivian?

Pyperkub wrote: Sat Nov 06, 2021 1:42 pm They look good, but I have issues like spare parts, and ramp up. What's their supply chain look like?

Comparatively strong.

Pyperkub wrote: Sat Nov 06, 2021 1:40 pmAMZN still gets most of its profit from AWS, not retail, AFAIK.

Yeah. It's not even that close.

F broke $20.

Other notables working for me today: CRON, AMD, LCID

"Cannabis stocks rose Monday for the second straight day after a report by Marijuana Moment that Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) is circulating the States Reform Act as a measure to legalize cannabis on a federal level. Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Pablo Zuanic said late Friday the measure "significantly increases the probability of federal level marijuana reform" during the current term. Shares of the Cannabis ETF THCX, +6.98% rose 5%, Curaleaf CURLF, +7.36% jumped 10%, Trulieve TCNNF, 6.21% advanced by 5.7%. Green Thumb Industries GTBIF, 10.49% rallied 11% and Cresco Labs CRLBF, +5.99% rose 7.4%."

Woot!

Almost break even on Curaleaf, still down on Trulieve. I was JUST about to pull the trigger on some GRWG on Friday, and forgot to put an order in! (up 15% today). I still think there's plenty of room to grow for that one, no pun intended.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Mon Nov 08, 2021 12:34 pm F broke $20.

Other notables working for me today: CRON, AMD, LCID

Kinda wish I had bought more shares of F than I did at the time.

Kinda wish I bought more 2023 AMD $75 Leaps at the time -- my cheapest were $14

Is there such a thing as FOMOETID? (Fear Of Missing Out Even Though I Didn't?)

noxiousdog wrote: Mon Nov 08, 2021 11:27 am

Pyperkub wrote: Sat Nov 06, 2021 1:40 pmAMZN still gets most of its profit from AWS, not retail, AFAIK.

Yeah. It's not even that close.

Thanks, hadn't checked lately, but it has been that way for a LONG time.

Carpet_pissr wrote: Mon Nov 08, 2021 12:52 pm "Cannabis stocks rose Monday for the second straight day after a report by Marijuana Moment that Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) is circulating the States Reform Act as a measure to legalize cannabis on a federal level. Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Pablo Zuanic said late Friday the measure "significantly increases the probability of federal level marijuana reform" during the current term. Shares of the Cannabis ETF THCX, +6.98% rose 5%, Curaleaf CURLF, +7.36% jumped 10%, Trulieve TCNNF, 6.21% advanced by 5.7%. Green Thumb Industries GTBIF, 10.49% rallied 11% and Cresco Labs CRLBF, +5.99% rose 7.4%."

Woot!

Almost break even on Curaleaf, still down on Trulieve. I was JUST about to pull the trigger on some GRWG on Friday, and forgot to put an order in! (up 15% today). I still think there's plenty of room to grow for that one, no pun intended.

Giving it all back today. I probably should have sold off CRON yesterday. 12b-25 dropped, not good.

Like psychedelics, it’s a volatile sector (not nearly as volatile, but still) Also a long term play imo.

Patience.

RBLX is going nuts on earnings.

Isn't RBLX what FB is trying to become?

CNN

General Electric, the industrial conglomerate founded by Thomas Edison in 1892, is breaking up. GE announced plans Tuesday to split into three separate companies.

GE will become separate, publicly traded companies for its aviation, healthcare and energy businesses. The company said it hopes to spin off the healthcare business to shareholders in early 2023 and that the separation of its renewable energy and power business will occur in early 2024.

Shares of GE (GE) surged as much as 17% in premarket trading on the news before retreating to about a 6% gain in early trading after the open. The stock was already up more than 25% in 2021 before the spin-off announcement.