Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Sat Apr 25, 2020 2:22 pm

Max Peck wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2020 2:00 pmNonetheless, I can see being told to hold up and not make assumptions vis-à-vis immunity would be bad news to plan-makers who had been making that assumption. Sadly, the ones rushing to reopen everything are already predisposed to ignore the WHO, so they'll likely file it under fake news rather than bad news.

That's really the core issue here -we're trying to make plans and come up with a strategy for mid to long term operation and we still have no idea how this virus really works because collectively we're in the early stages of exposure to a new agent. Without an ability to make policy decisions based on scientific inquiry (cornerstone public health), we can only advocate for prolonged shutdown and maintaining minimal social contact.It's the bluntest of instruments, but by all accounts it seems to be working in NY and NJ (broadly). There are absolutely costs (figuratively and literally) but I am having trouble seeing another way out in the short term, given what I know and what I see being reported. There was an article in NJ media today about towns trying to figure out how to open public beaches and maybe boardwalks for Memorial Day. Meanwhile Governor Kemp in Georgia opened up businesses so the state didn't have to pay out unemployment benefits or give business owners the ability to file insurance claims for business interruption. I mean, that's what I think he did, I don't know that he'd admit it. It's beyond deplorable.

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:32 pm

Thread.

https://twitter.com/cfishman/status/125 ... 53184?s=19

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Sat Apr 25, 2020 6:35 pm

Zaxxon wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:32 pm Thread.

https://twitter.com/cfishman/status/125 ... 53184?s=19

I have no idea where he is getting numbers but they are well wrong on the low side. Like not even close. In the thread he points at Washington Post which reported almost 2K deaths yesterday which messes up his first post.

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Sat Apr 25, 2020 6:42 pm

He links to WaPo in the thread, but I agree his numbers don't match that source across the board. Interesting.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Sat Apr 25, 2020 6:46 pm

Zaxxon wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2020 6:42 pm He links to WaPo in the thread, but I agree his numbers don't match that source across the board. Interesting.

I stopped reading almost immediately because he is making basic mistakes. Anyone tracking these numbers for any time would have picked it up in 5 seconds. He is off by like 75K positive cases. It's bizarre.

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Sat Apr 25, 2020 6:51 pm

malchior wrote:
Zaxxon wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2020 6:42 pm He links to WaPo in the thread, but I agree his numbers don't match that source across the board. Interesting.
I stopped reading almost immediately because he is making basic mistakes. Anyone tracking these numbers for any time would have picked it up in 5 seconds. He is off by like 75K positive cases. It's bizarre.

He's not off by 75k cases. He's talking about yesterday and lists total as 898k. Worldometers had it at 925k, and WaPo actually had it at 898k (933k now, 35k of which are today). So that's his source, apparently, even if he may be making mistakes down the line.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Sat Apr 25, 2020 6:54 pm

Your right I'm looking at today versus his from yesterday. More like 20-40K depending on your source but still the death count is wacky at best. He seems to be referencing data from multiple sources. It's pretty hard to track. Like I said I didn't really dig in because it is a mess.

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Sat Apr 25, 2020 6:57 pm

malchior wrote:Your right I'm looking at today versus his from yesterday. More like 40K depending on your source but still the death count is wacky at best. He seems to be referencing data from multiple sources. It's pretty hard to track. Like I said I didn't really dig in because it is a mess.

Well, zero k per the WaPo. I've largely been watching Worldometers but I don't know that it's fair to assume the WaPo is a bad source. Unless you have a cite that it is.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:11 pm

Zaxxon wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2020 6:57 pm
malchior wrote:Your right I'm looking at today versus his from yesterday. More like 40K depending on your source but still the death count is wacky at best. He seems to be referencing data from multiple sources. It's pretty hard to track. Like I said I didn't really dig in because it is a mess.
Well, zero k per the WaPo. I've largely been watching Worldometers but I don't know that it's fair to assume the WaPo is a bad source. Unless you have a cite that it is.

Fair enough on WaPo. Still which numbers is he using? That is such a confusing thread.

Grifman · Post by **Grifman** » Sat Apr 25, 2020 8:39 pm

malchior wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2020 10:21 am Our nation is beyond dysfunctional. We knew it coming into this but the GOP has crippled our nation. And they deserve a reckoning. Let's hope the Democrats figure out a way to tell the story.

It literally doesn't matter. A substantial part of the population, between 35% and 45% is committed to Trump no matter what. We're well past the point where he could stand on the street and shoot someone and people would say nothing. Now we have 50,000+ dead and they still support him. It's a giant cult - he can say no wrong, do no wrong, it's all the fault of the media and liberals and Democrats and socialists. I would never have believed that I would ever see such a cult of personality in this country but here we are. The only thing that might change things is if this sweeps into the red states and rural areas of blue states with the same virulence as NY, NJ. Even then that might not be enough.

gbasden · Post by **gbasden** » Sat Apr 25, 2020 8:48 pm

I know it is a bad thing, and I know this is showing a dangerous lack of empathy, but at this point I'm ready to have red states throw everything open and see how it goes. If everything is somehow fine, then that's a good data point. If the blood of Jesus somehow *doesn't* protect them, maybe they will start thinking rationally instead of blindly believing cultists and charlatans.

Max Peck · Post by **Max Peck** » Sat Apr 25, 2020 9:09 pm

AP FACT CHECK: Veterans Affairs chief plugs unproven drug

Veterans Affairs Secretary Robert Wilkie is taking advocacy of an unproven drug for the coronavirus even farther than President Donald Trump, claiming without evidence that it’s safe and that it has been effective for young and middle-aged veterans in particular.

On Friday, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration issued an alert warning doctors against prescribing the drug for COVID-19 outside of hospitals and research settings because of the risks of serious side effects and death.

WILKIE, on a nationwide study finding that a malaria drug had no benefit for treating COVID-19 among veterans: “That’s an observational study. It’s not a clinical study. It was done on a small number of veterans. Sadly, those of whom were in the last stages of life. And the drug was given to them. And I have to also say that the drug — we know the drug has been working on middle-age and younger veterans ... working in stopping the progression of the disease.” — interview Wednesday on MSNBC.

THE FACTS: He mischaracterized the study’s findings as he delved into an area of speculation by amateurs that his own agency has called “inaccurate and irresponsible.”

Wilkie rejected a study that relies on his department’s own hospital data and finds no benefit from hydroxychloroquine. His claim that it helps younger or middle-aged veterans with COVID-19 is also unsubstantiated.

It’s true that the study, done by independent researchers at two universities with VA approval, was not a rigorous experiment. Yet with 368 patients, it’s the largest look so far at hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19, based on VA hospital data.

Researchers analyzed medical records of male veterans hospitalized with confirmed coronavirus infection at Veterans Health Administration medical centers who died or were discharged by April 11.

About 28% who were given hydroxychloroquine plus usual care died, versus 11% of those getting routine care alone.

Even though people given the drug tended to be sicker than the comparison group, researchers statistically adjusted for that and still saw no benefit from the drug.

There is no other published evidence that the drug is safe or effective for younger veterans with COVID-19.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Sat Apr 25, 2020 9:17 pm

gbasden wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2020 8:48 pm I know it is a bad thing, and I know this is showing a dangerous lack of empathy, but at this point I'm ready to have red states throw everything open and see how it goes. If everything is somehow fine, then that's a good data point. If the blood of Jesus somehow *doesn't* protect them, maybe they will start thinking rationally instead of blindly believing cultists and charlatans.

A whole lot of Blue people live in Red states, though. In all of their cities, especially.

Max Peck · Post by **Max Peck** » Sat Apr 25, 2020 9:54 pm

Plans to restart Canadian economy do not hinge on coronavirus 'immunity' levels: PM

Plans underway to restart the economies of Canadian provinces do not depend on presuming people who become infected with coronavirus develop immunity to it, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Saturday.

The World Health Organization said earlier that there was “no evidence” that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection.

“I don’t believe there are any plans that hinge on certain people being immune to COVID-19,” Trudeau said in his daily briefing in Ottawa, adding that provincial plans focus on preventing the spread through social distancing and protective equipment in workplaces.

“(Immunity) is something we need to get clearer answers to and until we have those clear answers, we need to err on the side of more caution.”

Some 80% of Canada’s cases are in Quebec and Ontario, where there are numerous outbreaks in nursing homes.

Even so, a small protest outside the Ontario legislature on Saturday demanded the easing of public health measures.

“It’s irresponsible, reckless and it’s selfish,” Premier Doug Ford said of the call to loosen restrictions, speaking at a briefing. “It burns me up.”

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Sat Apr 25, 2020 9:57 pm

https://twitter.com/walidgellad/status/ ... 8146579462

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Sat Apr 25, 2020 10:01 pm

gbasden wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2020 8:48 pm I know it is a bad thing, and I know this is showing a dangerous lack of empathy, but at this point I'm ready to have red states throw everything open and see how it goes. If everything is somehow fine, then that's a good data point. If the blood of Jesus somehow *doesn't* protect them, maybe they will start thinking rationally instead of blindly believing cultists and charlatans.

I'm actually grateful to GA for being the guinea pig. We'll be able to put some approximate numbers on how many extra deaths it caused vs. how much economic activity it generated. The Georgians that I know are staying at home until they're convinced that it's safe to go out. Granted, that's only two people.

But I would expect that their economy will bump along near bottom while the death toll rises just enough to force them to pump the brakes again. That's my hunch, anyway.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Sat Apr 25, 2020 10:13 pm

https://twitter.com/thetweetofgod/statu ... 1660595200

There haven't been any studies yet, but I still think we should try this. What have we got to lose?

gbasden · Post by **gbasden** » Sat Apr 25, 2020 10:23 pm

Holman wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2020 9:17 pm
gbasden wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2020 8:48 pm I know it is a bad thing, and I know this is showing a dangerous lack of empathy, but at this point I'm ready to have red states throw everything open and see how it goes. If everything is somehow fine, then that's a good data point. If the blood of Jesus somehow *doesn't* protect them, maybe they will start thinking rationally instead of blindly believing cultists and charlatans.
A whole lot of Blue people live in Red states, though. In all of their cities, especially.

I know. I have friends in a lot of them. They are smart enough to keep social distancing, though. I'm just so very tired of these alternate reality motherfuckers screwing everything up for everybody else.

Blackhawk · Post by **Blackhawk** » Sat Apr 25, 2020 10:28 pm

/edit - that's apparently 'talk to the hand', but I meant it to be 'raising hand'.

Moat_Man · Post by **Moat_Man** » Sat Apr 25, 2020 11:16 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2020 2:01 pm Lord help us if it's an American company and Trump is still in office.

Maybe it will be a Canadian and they'll give it away for free...

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Sun Apr 26, 2020 2:30 am

WaPo

The Church of God in Christ, the country’s biggest African American Pentecostal denomination, has taken a deep and painful leadership hit with reports of at least a dozen to up to 30 bishops and prominent clergy dying of covid-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus.

Officials from the denomination did not return requests for comment, but media reports and interviews with experts who study the denomination show the deaths of leaders in states including Michigan, New York and Mississippi. Those are regions where the Church of God in Christ is prominent and the coronavirus has hit hard.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Sun Apr 26, 2020 8:40 am

The new tactic that the neosociopaths rolled out to be picked up by their vile and witless minions - comparison of violating public health orders to Rosa Parks.

https://twitter.com/jen_rice_/status/12 ... 3868958720

https://twitter.com/PittsburghPG/status ... 8052639744

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1251747611649945600

Daehawk · Post by **Daehawk** » Sun Apr 26, 2020 12:30 pm

He did say he wanted Brad to play him

......

Skinypupy · Post by **Skinypupy** » Sun Apr 26, 2020 9:38 pm

Posted tonight by now only the second person I've ever felt the need to cut entirely from my social media life. Sadly, a good friend and college teammate.

We are not all in this together.....most of you posting on social media are sick and immunocompromised...my friends and I are healthy and ready to get back to work and life!!!!!!! Stop asking me to stay at home because a very very small fraction of you may get sick and die!!!!!!!

These people are fucking insane.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Mon Apr 27, 2020 12:18 am

A disturbing article on how much we don't know about COVID-19: We Still Don’t Know How the Coronavirus Is Killing Us

gameoverman · Post by **gameoverman** » Mon Apr 27, 2020 12:31 am

Skinypupy wrote: Sun Apr 26, 2020 9:38 pm Posted tonight by now only the second person I've ever felt the need to cut entirely from my social media life. Sadly, a good friend and college teammate.

We are not all in this together.....most of you posting on social media are sick and immunocompromised...my friends and I are healthy and ready to get back to work and life!!!!!!! Stop asking me to stay at home because a very very small fraction of you may get sick and die!!!!!!!
These people are fucking insane.

Wow, that's a nasty way to go through life. EVERYONE is ready to get back to their life, do these idiots really think they are special in that regard? It reminds me of a relative who is constantly whining about how he's going crazy from this lockdown as if the person he's talking to is having the time of their life with things being the way they are. And the worst part is he's not going crazy. He's still getting paid to work from home, and he still goes out to the market/for takeout, or to drive around to where ever some place is open. How can you complain about being locked in when you aren't locked in?

I hope the 'my friends and I are healthy' person stays healthy. I'm sure it won't feel pleasant if the day comes that they wake up to discover they are no longer one of the healthy people but instead are one of the vulnerable ones that their friends no longer care about.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Apr 27, 2020 12:34 am

gameoverman wrote: Mon Apr 27, 2020 12:31 am
Skinypupy wrote: Sun Apr 26, 2020 9:38 pm Posted tonight by now only the second person I've ever felt the need to cut entirely from my social media life. Sadly, a good friend and college teammate.

We are not all in this together.....most of you posting on social media are sick and immunocompromised...my friends and I are healthy and ready to get back to work and life!!!!!!! Stop asking me to stay at home because a very very small fraction of you may get sick and die!!!!!!!
These people are fucking insane.
Wow, that's a nasty way to go through life. EVERYONE is ready to get back to their life, do these idiots really think they are special in that regard? It reminds me of a relative who is constantly whining about how he's going crazy from this lockdown as if the person he's talking to is having the time of their life with things being the way they are. And the worst part is he's not going crazy. He's still getting paid to work from home, and he still goes out to the market/for takeout, or to drive around to where ever some place is open. How can you complain about being locked in when you aren't locked in?

I hope the 'my friends and I are healthy' person stays healthy. I'm sure it won't feel pleasant if the day comes that they wake up to discover they are no longer one of the healthy people but instead are one of the vulnerable ones that their friends no longer care about.

That's one direction that this stuff is going in Trumpworld. Cornyn the other day posted about all the co-morbidities of people who died from coronavirus - 55% were obese, 37% had diabetes (not sure the %s, something like that). The point is that they're trying to say that the people dying from coronavirus are mostly dying because of bad life choices they made. So why should we all be held up to save the weak and stupid?

Skinypupy · Post by **Skinypupy** » Mon Apr 27, 2020 12:37 am

El Guapo wrote: Mon Apr 27, 2020 12:34 am
gameoverman wrote: Mon Apr 27, 2020 12:31 am
Skinypupy wrote: Sun Apr 26, 2020 9:38 pm Posted tonight by now only the second person I've ever felt the need to cut entirely from my social media life. Sadly, a good friend and college teammate.

We are not all in this together.....most of you posting on social media are sick and immunocompromised...my friends and I are healthy and ready to get back to work and life!!!!!!! Stop asking me to stay at home because a very very small fraction of you may get sick and die!!!!!!!
These people are fucking insane.
Wow, that's a nasty way to go through life. EVERYONE is ready to get back to their life, do these idiots really think they are special in that regard? It reminds me of a relative who is constantly whining about how he's going crazy from this lockdown as if the person he's talking to is having the time of their life with things being the way they are. And the worst part is he's not going crazy. He's still getting paid to work from home, and he still goes out to the market/for takeout, or to drive around to where ever some place is open. How can you complain about being locked in when you aren't locked in?

I hope the 'my friends and I are healthy' person stays healthy. I'm sure it won't feel pleasant if the day comes that they wake up to discover they are no longer one of the healthy people but instead are one of the vulnerable ones that their friends no longer care about.
That's one direction that this stuff is going in Trumpworld. Cornyn the other day posted about all the co-morbidities of people who died from coronavirus - 55% were obese, 37% had diabetes (not sure the %s, something like that). The point is that they're trying to say that the people dying from coronavirus are mostly dying because of bad life choices they made. So why should we all be held up to save the weak and stupid?

And I would guess the percentages he used mirror the general US populace fairly closely.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Mon Apr 27, 2020 12:45 am

If it's any comfort, at least more Americans are listening to the experts

Around 80% of Americans agree that the strict measures protect people from the virus and help limit its spread, according to the latest Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Poll.

YellowKing · Post by **YellowKing** » Mon Apr 27, 2020 8:34 am

Getting some good news out of NC, at least locally. Our regional COVID cases have been declining since early April, to the point now that they're going to start opening back up limited diagnostics and elective surgeries that had previously been put on hold. This is great news, as our hospital has already lost millions and the quicker we can get some income coming in the better.

I've been very happy with Governor Cooper's response to this. His early shutdown aggressively flattened the curve, but he's taken a very cautious and methodical approach to the re-opening plan.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:16 am

Meat supply chain breaking according to Tyson. FWIW, the troubles seen at meat packing plants have been widespread in the chemical contract manufacturing industry in NJ. My wife's factory (manufacturer of soaps/shampoos/deodorants) is hard hit and many of their peers have been sharing information about how to deal with labor shortages. Right now they are in a 2nd wave of workers who are largely displaced landscape workers but as the weather warms it is expected they'll want to return to those jobs as they are seen as safer. My wife's team is down to 1 person from 5. 1 was stolen to shore up a production critical team but they're running QC on a skeleton crew. This is essentially what is happening outside regulated products in the industry. Expect a lot of crappy/inconsistent product for awhile from a lot of places.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:19 am

malchior wrote: Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:16 am Meat supply chain breaking according to Tyson. FWIW, the troubles seen at meat packing plants have been widespread in the chemical contract manufacturing industry in NJ. My wife's factory (manufacturer of soaps/shampoos/deodorants) is hard hit and many of their peers have been sharing information about how to deal with labor shortages. Right now they are in a 2nd wave of workers who are largely displaced landscape workers but as the weather warms it is expected they'll want to return to those jobs as they are seen as safer.

It's fine, we closed the borders so Americans can take back these coveted jobs.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:27 am

LawBeefaroni wrote: Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:19 am
malchior wrote: Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:16 am Meat supply chain breaking according to Tyson. FWIW, the troubles seen at meat packing plants have been widespread in the chemical contract manufacturing industry in NJ. My wife's factory (manufacturer of soaps/shampoos/deodorants) is hard hit and many of their peers have been sharing information about how to deal with labor shortages. Right now they are in a 2nd wave of workers who are largely displaced landscape workers but as the weather warms it is expected they'll want to return to those jobs as they are seen as safer.
It's fine, we closed the borders so Americans can take back these coveted jobs.

Sure they will. In my wife's case, the firm was in the middle of planning a move to a (perceived) cheaper labor location out in PA. I thought the plan was bonkers because the amount of labor required is high and the place they are going is not populated with the type of people willing to take these jobs. They thought these people would move with them to be paid less. Ok. Put that aside since whatever. Anyway, now that this has happened they've been in non-stop negotiations with an industrial engineering company to attempt to automate 90% of the production. They brought in a new investor who sets up companies to do this from the start so it appears they are serious. So the 150+ $15/hr. jobs that Americans wouldn't do are going to be max 25 jobs that maybe some Americans will do. Progress! Maybe as soon as January. I don't know if we'll see the same drive across the industry, this is perhaps an edge case, but they adapted quick to the opportunity.

Paingod · Post by **Paingod** » Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:27 am

malchior wrote: Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:16 am Meat supply chain breaking according to Tyson.

As a vegetarian it doesn't bother me too much if the "meat economy" collapses, but it leaves me concerned for the other more efficient and eco-friendly food makers and how they're holding up.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:29 am

Paingod wrote: Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:27 am
malchior wrote: Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:16 am Meat supply chain breaking according to Tyson.
As a vegetarian it doesn't bother me too much if the "meat economy" collapses, but it leaves me concerned for the other more efficient and eco-friendly food makers and how they're holding up.

The food supply is a series of interconnected just-in-time manufacturing links. What happens if many en masse switch to a different food source? We've seen it here in parts of NJ. It's pretty awful. I finally found butter this morning. Only took 5 days and 6 store trips. But to put it in context, the store was more stocked than last week even so it is improving. We locally had a nadir that saw at least one woman weeping about not being able to get products the other day and public groups coordinating buying here. Most people didn't see the bad side of some of this stuff.

Skinypupy · Post by **Skinypupy** » Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:30 am

"We're Fucked": Exhibit 207

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Mon Apr 27, 2020 10:12 am

Wow...that video is awesome and that reporter deserves an award for being there to document it.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Mon Apr 27, 2020 10:31 am

Smoove_B wrote: Mon Apr 27, 2020 10:12 am Wow...that video is awesome and that reporter deserves an award for being there to document it.

It featured one of my favorite derp activities. They ask questions and then get mad when someone doesn't know random facts about their conspiracy theories. It is the calling card of the conspiracy moron.

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Mon Apr 27, 2020 10:34 am

YellowKing wrote: Mon Apr 27, 2020 8:34 am Getting some good news out of NC, at least locally. Our regional COVID cases have been declining since early April, to the point now that they're going to start opening back up limited diagnostics and elective surgeries that had previously been put on hold. This is great news, as our hospital has already lost millions and the quicker we can get some income coming in the better.

I've been very happy with Governor Cooper's response to this. His early shutdown aggressively flattened the curve, but he's taken a very cautious and methodical approach to the re-opening plan.

Reopening based on data ? Or just pressure? (I’m not speaking about the hospitals changes )

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Mon Apr 27, 2020 10:39 am

Trump tweet storm incoming.

Coronavirus Pandemic Pushes Cuomo to Record High Ratings; Voters Trust Cuomo over Trump on NY Reopening 78-16%.