Octopus Overlords

Defiant wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:30 pm I dunno. A libertarian candidate can pull support from the left and right, and could pull support from Never Trumper Republicans who might otherwise hold their noses and pull the lever for the Democratic candidate. Or it could be that he'll pull support from Never Trumpers who would otherwise not bother voting, or maybe even convince some Republicans who support Trump but have their doubts that he's a better choice.

El Guapo wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:21 am 99%+ chance he has no effect. Maybe slightly higher chance given that he's from Michigan, so if Michigan is close again, outside chance that he swings a few thousand votes and the election again (another damn reason the electoral college is so f'ing stupid).

If he does have an effect, probably slightly more likely that he helps Biden, but not totally clear (question is how many anti-Trump conservatives vote for him instead of Biden).

Defiant wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:30 pm I dunno. A libertarian candidate can pull support from the left and right, and could pull support from Never Trumper Republicans who might otherwise hold their noses and pull the lever for the Democratic candidate. Or it could be that he'll pull support from Never Trumpers who would otherwise not bother voting, or maybe even convince some Republicans who support Trump but have their doubts that he's a better choice.

But honestly, I don't think a third party candidate will get much traction, given the polarized views on this administration, plus the current environment where even the Democratic candidate doesn't get all that much coverage.

malchior wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 3:48 am

If he does have an effect, probably slightly more likely that he helps Biden, but not totally clear (question is how many anti-Trump conservatives vote for him instead of Biden).

I think he hurts Biden more but negligible amounts. I find it extremely unlikely that anyone defects from Trump to Amash at this point. In any case, a true spoiler will come from the 'progressive' side of the political world rather than from the right IMO.

“In 2019, a Detroit News poll found Biden leading Trump in Michigan, a state that has grown rockier for the president, by 12 points. With Amash added as an option, Biden’s lead shrunk to six points, with some independents and Republicans moving away from the Democrat.”

El Guapo wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:30 pm It'd be nice if we had more recent polling on that than May 2019.

malchior wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:52 pm

El Guapo wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:30 pm It'd be nice if we had more recent polling on that than May 2019.

Yeah. The whole thing feels not smart. Amash has no chance of winning even his home state but instead could tip it to Trump. He almost certainly doesn't hurt Trump. I don't get the math here.

malchior wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:20 pm I got the direction right but the magnitude wrong. The good thing is this was awhile ago and before Trump killed probably a 100K people while praising himself nightly. Still why take the risk?

https://twitter.com/RadioFreeTom/status ... 0898779136

“In 2019, a Detroit News poll found Biden leading Trump in Michigan, a state that has grown rockier for the president, by 12 points. With Amash added as an option, Biden’s lead shrunk to six points, with some independents and Republicans moving away from the Democrat.”

Defiant wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 1:40 pm I wonder if it's possible that Amash's plan is to drop out before the election and endorse Biden after focusing on attacking Trump during his campaign. That would probably be a safe way to hurt Trump (though, again, it probably wouldn't make a significant difference).

El Guapo wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 1:59 pm

Defiant wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 1:40 pm I wonder if it's possible that Amash's plan is to drop out before the election and endorse Biden after focusing on attacking Trump during his campaign. That would probably be a safe way to hurt Trump (though, again, it probably wouldn't make a significant difference).

My guess is that what's driving this is that Amash can't get reelected in the House (doomed among the GOP because he's anti-Trump, doomed among Democrats because he's conservative), but he wants to do something instead of just giving up. This is something, so he's doing that.

“I don’t believe the polls,” Trump said. “I believe the people of this country are smart. And I don’t think that they will put a man in who’s incompetent.”

El Guapo wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:59 pm

malchior wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:52 pm

El Guapo wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:30 pm It'd be nice if we had more recent polling on that than May 2019.

Yeah. The whole thing feels not smart. Amash has no chance of winning even his home state but instead could tip it to Trump. He almost certainly doesn't hurt Trump. I don't get the math here.

I'm curious what Amash's thinking / goals are with this run, given that I assume that he realizes that he can't win.

But I'm less convinced that this will help Trump. I don't think many left-wing people will vote for him. In my mind the pools of Amash voters is mostly right-leaning low-information voters who are unhappy or uncomfortable with Trump. Some percentage of them will ultimately talk themselves into voting for Trump, and some percentage will ultimately vote for Biden. Some percentage of each would likely ultimately switch to Amash. Unclear to me whether he'd divert more Biden or Trump people. This poll helps, but it's one poll and it's fairly old.

malchior wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 7:11 am I found this piece by a former prosecutor well constructed (unsurprising considering his background).

Why I'm skeptical about Reade's sexual assault claim against Biden: Ex-prosecutor

"I just wonder if it's real," Trump said of the videos. "That's a hell of a video."

"I did have one very brief meeting on it," he said in the interview. "But people are saying they're seeing UFOs. Do I believe it? Not particularly."

Zarathud wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 10:44 am

"I did have one very brief meeting on it," he said in the interview. "But people are saying they're seeing UFOs. Do I believe it? Not particularly."

There are, as with Ms. Broaddrick, reasons to doubt her story; there aren’t good reasons not to hear her out. As The Times’s executive editor, Dean Baquet, told me in an interview two week ago, Ms. Reade has “standing.”

And yet, Ms. Reade told me Wednesday that the only offers she’s had to appear on television have come from Fox News, including a call from the prime time host Sean Hannity. She has so far turned them down.

“I’ve been trying to just kind of wait to get someone in the middle,” she said in a phone interview. “I don’t want to be pigeonholed as a progressive, I don’t want to be pigeonholed as a Trump supporter.”

CNN and MSNBC, whose DNA — even in a pandemic — is politics, have covered her on their websites but haven’t put her on camera.

“They’re not offering to put me on TV — they’re just doing stories,” Ms. Reade told me. “No anchors, no nothing like that.” She’d most like to tell her story to a network television anchor she admires — CBS’s Gayle King is one, she said — but they haven’t called.

So she’s planning to accept Fox News’s offer for an interview to air this weekend, she said, with “someone a little more up the middle.” She declined to say who, but a person who has spoken to her said Ms. Reade is in talks with Chris Wallace.

The booking would be a coup for the conservative network, and give its on-air hosts a club with which to beat a mainstream media that can’t quite explain why it won’t book Ms. Reade, while Julie Swetnick, a woman with a shaky claim against a Supreme Court nominee, got airtime during a prime time evening broadcast.

Trump wrote:Do I believe it? Not particularly.

YellowKing wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 1:34 pm

Trump wrote:Do I believe it? Not particularly.

Dammit, I actually agree with Trump on something.

YellowKing wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 1:34 pm

Trump wrote:Do I believe it? Not particularly.

Dammit, I actually agree with Trump on something.

Why a Liberal Democrat Supports Vladimir Putin By: Alexandra Tara Reade

...

Through my lens, President Putin brought a chaotic and failed nation to become a vibrant, creative, economic force within a decade. I don’t care what your politics; just admit that his sheer, calculated vision and willful energy brought Russia back to be a world power. Now, I said this to a friend recently, she waved her glass of Merlot at me and began the “anti-Russia” lecture we all have come in America to memorize, a tale of spies, oligarchs, rigged elections and murders. I start to drift. I listen to the Sade song playing in the background “The Sweetest Taboo” as she speaks. When she finishes, I say, “Well, he is very good to women, holds them in high regard.” She starts to protest then stops and says, “yes, yes, but…” She trails off no doubt thinking of the American President’s obvious disdain and objectification of all women. I shrug. Maybe, America is on some wrong side of very big issues and we need to look at our own actions.

Smoove_B wrote: Fri May 01, 2020 11:36 am Has anyone seen this circulating yet?

Why a Liberal Democrat Supports Vladimir Putin By: Alexandra Tara Reade

...

Through my lens, President Putin brought a chaotic and failed nation to become a vibrant, creative, economic force within a decade. I don’t care what your politics; just admit that his sheer, calculated vision and willful energy brought Russia back to be a world power. Now, I said this to a friend recently, she waved her glass of Merlot at me and began the “anti-Russia” lecture we all have come in America to memorize, a tale of spies, oligarchs, rigged elections and murders. I start to drift. I listen to the Sade song playing in the background “The Sweetest Taboo” as she speaks. When she finishes, I say, “Well, he is very good to women, holds them in high regard.” She starts to protest then stops and says, “yes, yes, but…” She trails off no doubt thinking of the American President’s obvious disdain and objectification of all women. I shrug. Maybe, America is on some wrong side of very big issues and we need to look at our own actions.

Smoove_B wrote: Fri May 01, 2020 11:50 am Ah, ok. I hadn't see it mentioned until today. There's someone (multiple people?) going through her Twitter account and finding all kinds of weird Tweets that have odd syntax/phrasing. I find it difficult to discern anything from reading a Tweet as I always feel like I'm chopping up how I'd speak or write normally to fit within character limits. Either way, it continues to interject chaos, which I think is the goal.

Blackhawk wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:27 pm
And when it comes right down to it, I wouldn't be surprised to see a record number of faithless electors from red states that shift blue, leading to Congress determining who sits behind the desk.

And a Biden/Pence White House.

Defiant wrote:

Blackhawk wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:27 pm
And when it comes right down to it, I wouldn't be surprised to see a record number of faithless electors from red states that shift blue, leading to Congress determining who sits behind the desk.

And a Biden/Pence White House.

FYI, if the election goes to congress because neither got over 269 EV, Republicans get to decide both the President and the VP. The House determines the presidency, but each state gets one vote, and while the Democrats hold a majority of seats, they don't hold the majorities of a majority of the states.