Octopus Overlords

This is all totally rational behavior.

https://twitter.com/CNBCnow/status/1485 ... 97315?s=20

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Gotta buy NVDA here, right?!? RIGHT?!

Hell, I think ANY semiconductor company right now is probably a great pick. Currently holding AMAT and LRCX, but feeling tempted to get NVDA as well.

Carpet_pissr wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 12:01 pm Gotta buy NVDA here, right?!? RIGHT?!

Hell, I think ANY semiconductor company right now is probably a great pick. Currently holding AMAT and LRCX, but feeling tempted to get NVDA as well.

I have a lot of TSM so not looking into add much in the way of semis but I'm looking at GFS here. $45-50.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:12 pm

Carpet_pissr wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 12:01 pm Gotta buy NVDA here, right?!? RIGHT?!

Hell, I think ANY semiconductor company right now is probably a great pick. Currently holding AMAT and LRCX, but feeling tempted to get NVDA as well.

I have a lot of TSM so not looking into add much in the way of semis but I'm looking at GFS here. $45-50.

The highly "diversified" play here is KLAC IMO.

If I had money, I'd go against the CNBC talking heads and be putting money in Intel with the idea that it would pay off in 25/26. I think building plants with the ability to expand in Columbus in the heart of supply chain central for US manufacturing in auto and IOT is going to payoff for them huge... in 25 or 26... I don't see any other semi company stepping up the bat this way. CNBC seems to be saying by the time Intel get there it will be too late and the cyclical nature of chips will hurt them. That and they aren't innovators. Tesla is showing you don't need to be an innovator. You just need to be a provider in the chain. I don't think chips are going to cyclical any more. I think IOT has changed the game and COVID only exposed the change, it isn't defining the change.

LordMortis wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:27 pm If I had money, I'd go against the CNBC talking heads and be putting money in Intel with the idea that it would pay off in 25/26. I think building plants with the ability to expand in Columbus in the heart of supply chain central for US manufacturing in auto and IOT is going to payoff for them huge... in 25 or 26... I don't see any other semi company stepping up the bat this way. CNBC seems to be saying by the time Intel get there it will be too late and the cyclical nature of chips will hurt them. That and they aren't innovators. Tesla is showing you don't need to be an innovator. You just need to be a provider in the chain. I don't think chips are going to cyclical any more. I think IOT has changed the game and COVID only exposed the change, it isn't defining the change.

Very much depends on WHICH talkng heads you are referring to. I've finally found a pretty good system that only considers analysts' targets if I can verify:
1. A good track record for ACCURATELY picking stocks...meaning they set a target, and it hit those targets over time, over and over again (a few times you could just get lucky)
2. A good track record for whatever specific stock I am looking at. Some overall great analysts, with amazing records, can also bomb the occasional holding (and do!) I gotta see long term outperformance on their picks for that particular stock

Same goes for institutions. Ford Equity Research, for instance, as a whole, is surprisingly accurate (though they don't set specific target $$, just a scale from 1-5. Zack's is also pretty accurate, as is Credit Suisse, as a firm.

I like Zack's. Not so much for Credit Suisse.

LordMortis wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:58 pm I like Zack's. Not so much for Credit Suisse.

I like The Street.

You just have to remember to adjust:
"Buy" = hold
"Sell" = buy
"Hold" = sell

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:26 pm

LordMortis wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:58 pm I like Zack's. Not so much for Credit Suisse.

I like The Street.

You just have to remember to adjust:
"Buy" = hold
"Sell" = buy
"Hold" = sell

So you "like" them as a contrarian indicator?

Hold = sell is not that unusual methinks, but the other two...

Carpet_pissr wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:06 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:26 pm

LordMortis wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:58 pm I like Zack's. Not so much for Credit Suisse.

I like The Street.

You just have to remember to adjust:
"Buy" = hold
"Sell" = buy
"Hold" = sell

So you "like" them as a contrarian indicator?

Hold = sell is not that unusual methinks, but the other two...

The Street is just a mouthpiece. Look at it this way. If you could guide other buyers to maximize your own profit, what would you do?

Tell them to buy once you have established your position.
Tell them to hold as you exit.
Tell them to sell when you want to buy.


I don't trade on that contrarian thesis of course but I do get ideas from it.

My continuing bet that T is a market leader in value destruction looks like it paid off. I'm pretty sure I'm going to close out my positions on it and call it a windfall. I don't know if I'll get another negative shock like this one for awhile. Might as well bank it.

Interestingly or not, my remaining shares of DISCA are up less than a percent on this news.

I was just waiting for more merger stuff to settle before selling these shares, so not sure how this will affect my exit strategy.

Edit: now up almost 2%

Google is doing a 20-for-1 stock split.

Anyone want to invest in . . . cattle? Guaranteed 15-20% return:

https://www.agridime.com/buy-cattle-here

What I don’t understand is if they can generate such guaranteed returns, why don’t they just borrow the money (especially at today’s rates) and cut out investors and keep all the profit? I just don’t see how anyone can guarantee returns like this, even with their own supply chain, insurance against loss of cattle, etc.

Grifman wrote: Wed Feb 02, 2022 9:32 am Anyone want to invest in . . . cattle? Guaranteed 15-20% return:

https://www.agridime.com/buy-cattle-here

What I don’t understand is if they can generate such guaranteed returns, why don’t they just borrow the money (especially at today’s rates) and cut out investors and keep all the profit? I just don’t see how anyone can guarantee returns like this, even with their own supply chain, insurance against loss of cattle, etc.

Fascinating. Thanks for sending me down the rabbit hole on that!

They just launched in September or October, so I would be wary about that ‘guarantee’ I guess.

Basically a meat broker, but yeah I have the same question about going to a crowd-funding model vs super low interest bank loan. I certainly wouldn’t invest without knowing the answer to that.

Maybe as a BRAND new startup they have zero working capital or liquidity, and banks won’t touch that. Even with the beef market as hot as it is (and I have absolutely no doubts about their profit and margin claims based on current market), traditional banks might not be able to take that into consideration.

Absolutely love seeing fresh new ideas like this from young entrepreneurs.

Carpet_pissr wrote: Wed Feb 02, 2022 9:45 ama crow-funding model

Sign me up.

Zaxxon wrote: Wed Feb 02, 2022 10:17 am

Carpet_pissr wrote: Wed Feb 02, 2022 9:45 ama crow-funding model

Sign me up.

Ha! Fixed

Jed Wood from Agridime.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/jed-wood-25b26719

Best of luck to them but I'll sit it out.

Zaxxon wrote: Wed Feb 02, 2022 10:17 am

Carpet_pissr wrote: Wed Feb 02, 2022 9:45 ama crow-funding model

Sign me up.

He should have said “cow funding” model.

Well we could have invested in this cattle operation:

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/two-indi ... nzi-scheme

And there's always the catrle futures market.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillary ... ontroversy

FB, woof.

Also, will start trading under ticker META in one hour?

What's a good PE for tech group?

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Feb 02, 2022 5:18 pm FB, woof.

Also, will start trading under ticker META in one hour?

That's...a stunning drop after hours.

pr0ner wrote: Wed Feb 02, 2022 5:32 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Feb 02, 2022 5:18 pm FB, woof.

Also, will start trading under ticker META in one hour?

That's...a stunning drop after hours.

Nearly $200B shaved off market cap.

I'm no Apple fanboy (disclaimer: I do have an iPhone, and my wife just bought me an Apple Watch for my birthday), but at least they SEEM to be increasingly on the side of protecting their customers' privacy, compared to other similarly sized companies in the space. LOVE the "Hide my email" feature they built into the recent iOS, for instance...and yes I know you could have previously done that in a variety of ways, the fact that they implemented as they did, and just made it easier, really ups my opinion of them as a company (re: privacy). Sure, it could all be a facade, or merely for show to make people think exactly like me, but at least there APPEARS to be effort, that seems to actually be working, there. It could also very well be 100% "let's try to screw our competitors as much as possible", or even just "as much as we can get away with".

More pressing in the near term is Meta’s ability to continue to navigate Apple’s (AAPL) recent privacy changes that allow iOS users to opt out of letting their apps track them across the web. The feature, called App Tracking Transparency, has been a roadblock for apps like Facebook and Snap (SNAP), which rely on that kind of data to sell ads to advertisers.

And according to Meta CFO David Wehner, the iOS feature will hurt Meta moving forward.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Feb 02, 2022 5:36 pm

pr0ner wrote: Wed Feb 02, 2022 5:32 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Feb 02, 2022 5:18 pm FB, woof.

Also, will start trading under ticker META in one hour?

That's...a stunning drop after hours.

Nearly $200B shaved off market cap.

It's just a flesh wound!

Oh FB - couldn't happen to a nicer bunch. It is amusing to see them saying advertisers are cutting spend due to the business environment when GOOG drops record breaking numbers...and touts strength of advertising business. I'm totally sure it had nothing to do with them being accused of selling teens digital crack.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Feb 02, 2022 5:18 pm

Also, will start trading under ticker META in one hour?

Apparently the Dow Jones news feed was usojg "1H" for "1st half". They'll start trading under META in the first half of 2022. DJN is now saying H1'22 which makes more sense.

In the next few months, I'll actually start selling stock in order to make sure I don't get caught with my pants down with regard to having, you know, cash, when I'm not working. Someone help me work out why I shouldn't budget my sales by selling ITM options on my positions, to collect a little premium on my positions by pricing them ahead of time and taking the risk that the bottom won't fall out, which I could always mitigate with a buy back anyway.

Buying and holding over the last decade was easy enough to do. Trying to figure out a plan for selling? That's going to be tricky.

LordMortis wrote: Thu Feb 03, 2022 5:18 pm Someone help me work out why I shouldn't budget my sales by selling ITM options on my positions, to collect a little premium on my positions by pricing them ahead of time and taking the risk that the bottom won't fall out, which I could always mitigate with a buy back anyway.

If the price falls below the strike, you could end up holding. If it falls significantly below strike you'd be at a loss. It's low risk but it's still a risk.

AMZN

$3,236.63

Change Since Close
459.72 (16.56%)

LordMortis wrote: Thu Feb 03, 2022 6:11 pm AMZN

$3,236.63

Change Since Close
459.72 (16.56%)

Closed down 8% today, but up 14% AH. Interesting.

Carpet_pissr wrote: Thu Feb 03, 2022 6:34 pm

LordMortis wrote: Thu Feb 03, 2022 6:11 pm AMZN

$3,236.63

Change Since Close
459.72 (16.56%)

Closed down 8% today, but up 14% AH. Interesting.

The economy looks like it was softening at the end of Q4 so people were expecting Amazon to be flat. Amazon revenue came in hotter than expected with solid sales that were more than predicted, AWS came in strong, there was more ad revenue than expected, and an upside surprise in its Rivian stake from the IPO.

AMZN has pricing power. I've been comparing current prices vs my previous orders, they have no problem raising.


F got smacked, down 10%. Too much demand, not enough supply. I'll take that "problem".

Mostly flat today thanks to Amazon v. F, bought some F calls for a quick shot at beer money.

Awfully quiet in here! You guys shell shocked?

Carpet_pissr wrote: Tue Feb 15, 2022 10:54 am Awfully quiet in here! You guys shell shocked?

I'm mostly just standing pat. Heavy cash, making tiny moves. Bought some more DUK today. Looking at Softbank.

I'm trying to get heavier in cash but not willing to sell any of my current positions at these sorts of downs and not willing to sell my ETFs at all yet. So mostly, I'm just kicking options down the line and make a few hundred a month for the last couple of months while seeing my equity plunge by 1000s. CDs are maturing and becoming cash. I'm up to about 9 months living expenses in actual cash and down to about another year's living expenses in CDs and bonds. None of my positions are set up for selling yet but I'll start soon enough. I'll want enough to pay for a car and still be able to draw more cash to live on through an economic downturn should I need to once I hit the no longer employed mark.

How long I stayed employed is now fluid. I agreed to stay on two more weeks but we're not even in the zip code of ready to offboard me. It's easier to to force myself to stick around, as much as I just want to go, when I'm watching so much down in the last two months.