Octopus Overlords

malchior wrote: Fri May 29, 2020 3:10 pm Based on events this week up to today what the heck is the Trump election strategy? He seems to have completely lost it. He won't talked about 100K dead from coronavirus. He won't talk about the George Floyd killing. He won't talk about the economy. He is sort of doing the rile up the base thing but it seems so half-hearted. This is sort of like seeing him in his Hitler in the bunker phase during impeachment except he is completely free to maneuver. It's bizarre.

He never talked about concrete policy proposals (except the Wall) during the 2016 race. It was all just Blood 'n Soil MAGA lizardbrain stuff.

It worked the first time, and it's all he knows, so he's going with it again.

Possibly a good sign on turnout:

Dem-heavy Philadelphia is having its primary today(!) despite the events of the weekend and last night.

The virus has caused consolidation (and thus unfamiliarity) of voting locations, longer lines, and mandatory distancing, but reports are that turnout is *not* down from 2016. Add to this a very successful campaign to get people to vote by mail, and I think we can expect strong numbers.

https://twitter.com/LOUISAGUIRRE/status ... 16930?s=20

HA! FUCK YOU STEVE KING!

Holman wrote:https://twitter.com/LOUISAGUIRRE/status ... 16930?s=20

HA! FUCK YOU STEVE KING!

Adios, Steve! Welcome, Steve, Jr!

Yep. But Steve King is a vile asshole who objectively deserves to lose his position of public trust, dead stop.

Holman wrote:Yep. But Steve King is a vile asshole who objectively deserves to lose his position of public trust, dead stop.

Absolutely. I'm just having trouble working up the happiness mojo given this guy is apparently just another King, just better at not saying the quiet part out loud. Now if the GOP loses the seat, then I'm in.

Zaxxon wrote: Tue Jun 02, 2020 11:27 pm Now if the GOP loses the seat, then I'm in.

Unfortunately, it appears to be the exact opposite now - this moves the district from likely R to solid R.

gilraen wrote: Wed Jun 03, 2020 8:08 pm

Zaxxon wrote: Tue Jun 02, 2020 11:27 pm Now if the GOP loses the seat, then I'm in.

Unfortunately, it appears to be the exact opposite now - this moves the district from likely R to solid R.

If he proves to be a Trump antagonist, I'm okay with it. Elephants that suck the teat of Trump or Moscow Mitch need to be destroyed, those who can sanely act in the pubic interest are not our enemy.

He isn't a Trump antagonist. Trump campaigned for him and he isn't so hot himself. When you rate people on a better than Steve King scale you'll find it has a wide range. In this case he is essentially seen by some as a loyal Trumpist.

Can someone remind me why Corey Booker didn't get more traction in the primaries? I watched his interview last night on Colbert and was pretty impressed with his poise and comments.

stessier wrote: Fri Jun 05, 2020 4:26 am Can someone remind me why Corey Booker didn't get more traction in the primaries?

There just wasn't room - He was lost in the crowd, with two major well known candidates preventing anyone from getting a lot of traction, and other candidates overlapping his potential constituency (Harris, Warren, Buttigieg) getting what he would have needed in order to break out. Also, there were some on the left attacked him for "wall street"/"pro-pharma" perceptions.

Defiant wrote: Fri Jun 05, 2020 6:27 am

stessier wrote: Fri Jun 05, 2020 4:26 am Can someone remind me why Corey Booker didn't get more traction in the primaries?

There just wasn't room - He was lost in the crowd, with two major well known candidates preventing anyone from getting a lot of traction, and other candidates overlapping his potential constituency (Harris, Warren, Buttigieg) getting what he would have needed in order to break out. Also, there were some on the left attacked him for "wall street"/"pro-pharma" perceptions.

Yeah, I really like Booker as well, and he was one of my top choices. I think part of the dynamic is that Biden dominated the moderate lane in the primary from the beginning, and Booker was then fighting among maybe a dozen candidates for the progressive lane in the primary. I guess with hindsight one might question whether Booker should've parked himself firmly in the moderate lane from the beginning and tried to knock Biden off from that angle, but I am inclined to doubt that that would've worked either.

Booker also attempted to make himself the candidate of bright positivity when the entire field was racing to exhibit their righteous anger at Trump and the GOP. Voters just weren't interested in what he was offering.

I converted a Trump voter today. I'm only telling this because I think it gives an interesting perspective, and backs up something that was mentioned earleir. The woman is elderly, good-natured, and of average intelligence. She's not dumb, but not bright, either. She grew up in an era when things were generally taken at face value and most people never learned to dig deeper. She doesn't watch Fox, she doesn't pay attention to Facebook news posts. She gets her news from BBC, but otherwise doesn't trust any of them. Admittedly, she isn't starting out a MAGA, but the polls don't distinguish between the misinformed and the fanatical.

She voted for Trump over Hillary for two reasons: She hated Hillary, and she was sick of politics-as-usual, which Trump ('businessman') provided an alternative to.

She said that she'd probably vote for Trump again, mostly because Joe Biden is more politics-as-usual, even though she doesn't really like Trump.

So we discussed recent events, and one thing became clear: She doesn't have the background to understand what's happening. She reads the news, but doesn't fully grasp some of the implications of what she's reading. We discussed those events more. The removal of anyone who disagrees with Trump from his circle, the active interference with oversight, neutralizing checks-and-balances. The attempts to classify a world view as a terrorist organization. The sabotage of the free press. The attempt to order American troops to act as police on American soil. The careful weakening of votes from non-supportive areas. The 'cult of personality'.

Her response was, "Trump does that? It sounds like a dictatorship!" She was pretty shocked when she realized the implications of his actions, and it was clear that she was no longer willing to support him. Like I said, she's not dumb.

The thing I take away from that is that we here are a different type of echo chamber. We're a well-educated, fairly smart, well informed group. We dig deeper, and we strive to understand. People like that tend to also surround themselves with friends that are like that. It leads us to a view of people that is probably distorted. I think that a lot of people who check the 'Trump' box in the polls do so, not because they're supportive of his actions, but because they genuinely don't understand what his actions really represent. They're not terrible people, they're just poorly informed, as much of the information goes over their head and/or beyond their experience, or they don't actually follow events to begin with and aren't aware of some of the things that are happening. They're people who are not used to thinking in terms of the 'larger picture' of politics, so they just don't understand that there is a danger.

Not all. There are true MAGAs out there, and they completely drown out the uninvolved Trump voters (they don't think about politics, so they don't talk about politics.) After a while, after only hearing the loud, angry voices, we start to think that they're the only voices.

In the end, the idea of Trump supporters changing their vote isn't completely hopeless. It's not a lost cause, as not everybody 'over there' is a mouth-frothing Trump supporter. Some are just genuinely uninformed.

Skinypupy wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 10:59 am Provide one - just one - piece of evidence that there has been widespread voter fraud in any state that has done mail-in ballots. Just one. Ever.
Yeah, didn't think so.

Maybe not widespread, but certainly an interesting intersection of current topics in R&P:

https://twitter.com/charles_gaba/status ... 2546315266

So in one day, we've learned that Trump, Trump's press secretary, and the cop who murdered George Floyd all commited voter fraud. Huh.

stessier wrote: Fri Jun 05, 2020 4:26 am Can someone remind me why Corey Booker didn't get more traction in the primaries? I watched his interview last night on Colbert and was pretty impressed with his poise and comments.

My order went Merkley (never ran) > Beto (Dropped early) > Booker (and when he dropped everything else was settle for nor part of the GOP)... None of them made it to me.

NYT: George W, Bush, Mitt Romney, Cindy McCain refusing to vote for Trump.

But, far sooner than they expected, growing numbers of prominent Republicans are debating how far to go in revealing that they won’t back his re-election — or might even vote for Joseph R. Biden Jr., the presumptive Democratic nominee. They’re feeling a fresh urgency because of Mr. Trump’s incendiary response to the protests of police brutality, atop his mishandling of the coronavirus pandemic, according to people who spoke on the condition of anonymity to disclose private discussions.

Former President George W. Bush won’t support the re-election of Mr. Trump, and Jeb Bush isn’t sure how he’ll vote, say people familiar with their thinking. Senator Mitt Romney of Utah won’t back Mr. Trump and is deliberating whether to again write in his wife, Ann, or cast another ballot this November. And Cindy McCain, the widow of Senator John McCain, is almost certain to support Mr. Biden but is unsure how public to be about it because one of her sons is eying a run for office.

Others, like Paul Ryan and John Boehner, have declined to say that they'll vote for Trump.

This feels different from NeverTrump punditry. A former president and other former top politicians is a serious shift, especially if some of them take the full step to endorsing Biden.

This is probably also a place where Biden's long history in Washington will help him. He has made enough of an effort at bipartisanship along the way that it will be more palatable for some Republicans to return the favor: "I know Joe Biden, I respect Joe Biden, I have worked with Joe Biden for years," etc.

Call me when these folks publicly endorse Biden. Or at least go on the record as definitely not voting for Trump.

In the meantime, no credit. My family doesn't get credit for being outraged but not voting for the solution--neither do politicians. You're either actively voting Trump and his enablers out, or you're part of the problem.

Zaxxon wrote: Sun Jun 07, 2020 9:17 am Call me when these folks publicly endorse Biden. Or at least go on the record as definitely not voting for Trump.

In the meantime, no credit. My family doesn't get credit for being outraged but not voting for the solution--neither do politicians. You're either actively voting Trump and his enablers out, or you're part of the problem.

While I understand the sentiment, remember that a large part of the reason Trump won in the first place was because people (rightly or wrongly) were so disenchanted with Hillary that they simply stayed home instead.

My sense is that there could potentially be lots of folks who are in the same boat this time around. Disgusted with Trump but can't bring themselves to vote for a Democrat, so they just don't show up.

I hear you. It's just so clear a moral choice that I have trouble cheerleading people who are getting credit for almost having a sliver of a moral compass, but not quite getting to a full sliver.

No argument here, but if they're not pulling the lever for Trump, I'll take that victory...however minor.

Unless they're going to vote 3rd party instead, yes. It might be too much to ask that some (assuming life-long Republicans) switch from guaranteed voting for Trump to actually voting for (presumably) Joe Biden.

EDIT: Here you go:

https://twitter.com/funder/status/1269620377761783809

BREAKING: General Colin Powell says he will be voting for Joe Biden

Clinton lost last time at least partially because of the number of people who didn't vote rather than voting for her. If enough Trump voters choose to not vote rather than voting for him, that's a net gain. Not as big of a gain as them switching, but still a gain.

There are two ways to win: Score a lot of points, or score a few points and prevent your opponent from scoring.

Just possibly all these low-risk but high-profile Republicans breaking ranks will be enough of a screen that maybe, just maybe, a few others will start to break ranks. We've been talking for three and a half years about how a few could start an avalanche, but how none were willing to be first.

And that applies to the Republicans on the street, too. It's easier for them to vote for their 'opponent' or to become demoralized and not vote at all (still a gain) when they can see that someone they respect, some who is, gooble-gobble, "one of us" has also done so.


(Yeah, I know. Just a pipe dream. But a little hope goes a long way right now.)

I think enough of the Republican party really saw how close we came to the brink this week. I think it is hard to see how this plays out yet though I'm surprised Esper is still in the job. Maybe Trump is slipping or more likely he does not realize how amazingly weak he looks. Especially now with primary season mostly over he now has less power to threaten pols in the party.

Good piece in The Atlantic about how the Trump regime may be starting to collapse. It talks about much that has already been mentioned - key Republicans breaking makes it easier for more Republicans to break, snowball effect, etc. etc.

He's totally flipping out about the poll numbers today. Apparently it's all made up and he's killing Biden.

Octavious wrote: Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:33 pm He's totally flipping out about the poll numbers today. Apparently it's all made up and he's killing Biden.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/statu ... 0496154625

Octavious wrote: Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:33 pm He's totally flipping out about the poll numbers today. Apparently it's all made up and he's killing Biden.

He's hired John McLaughlin and his polling firm to analyze that CNN poll. The same John McLaughlin who missed Eric Cantor's primary loss in 2014 by 44 points.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/sta ... 4628726784

I know that pollster certainly comes across as unbiased!

It seems like with most of what Trump does it only has a short shelf life and the explodes behind him. I'm just amazed how many people keep falling for it. Sure it's possible he will make a dramatic comeback in five months but I really don't get the feeling that's going to happen this time.

RunningMn9 wrote: Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:57 pm I know that pollster certainly comes across as unbiased!

They only have to convince one person.

Octavious wrote:Sure it's possible he will make a dramatic comeback in five months but I really don't get the feeling that's going to happen this time.

One certainty with Trump is that he is consistently bad, even when he's at his best. So even a miracle run of good luck from here to November would likely only result in him capping out at his standard 42-43% approval.

Another certainty with Trump is that he is a master of the self-sabotage. It's unlikely he can go another five months without committing another (and more likely several) faux pas that would doom any normal President. And he's terrible under pressure. As election uncertainty mounts, the more he'll melt down and the deeper he'll dig his own grave.

I feel like the protests were a huge indicator that Trump & the GOP's messaging has outright failed. They have been completely unable to counter the dicontent, and the weak shifts of blame to Antifa and the radical left have fallen on deaf ears. The protests may have started out of police brutality and racism, but I think the ire of these protests has an undercurrent of backlash against not only racial disparity, but economic disparity, lack of accountability, and lack of leadership. This is a rage not against one issue, but against the entire direction this country is moving in.

Hmm...

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/stat ... 54977?s=19

If the Turtle can get voted out (and not because he's not extreme enough) then there's hope for us at the federal level. I don't have faith in this.

LordMortis wrote: Tue Jun 09, 2020 9:27 am If the Turtle can get voted out (and not because he's not extreme enough) then there's hope for us at the federal level. I don't have faith in this.

Beyond the general "don't read too much into one poll" general rule, I'm also a bit wary of this one in particular because it's driven by an issue-focused group (though that headline poll is not tied directly to the issue).

Anyway, McGrath has a shot but it's a pretty long one. Odds are if McConnell goes down then it's going to be a hell of an election (e.g., Republicans losing everywhere).

El Guapo wrote: Tue Jun 09, 2020 9:30 am

LordMortis wrote: Tue Jun 09, 2020 9:27 am If the Turtle can get voted out (and not because he's not extreme enough) then there's hope for us at the federal level. I don't have faith in this.

Beyond the general "don't read too much into one poll" general rule, I'm also a bit wary of this one in particular because it's driven by an issue-focused group (though that headline poll is not tied directly to the issue).

Anyway, McGrath has a shot but it's a pretty long one. Odds are if McConnell goes down then it's going to be a hell of an election (e.g., Republicans losing everywhere).

Agreed. I'm not getting excited. This is the first I've seen with Mitch behind, though, so I had to share it.

A preview of the general election? Widespread problems at the polls in GA today. Problems were reported as soon as polls opened with polling places with machines not working and very long lines. If only there was a solution!?!

Live in a rural area or a middle class to affluent white conservative neighborhood whose district was picked for you by your state representative?