[WW] Crimson Moon III - Game ends in a Draw?

[Austin]

I don't think the third scenario there comes into play. If Unagi was a wolf, surely he'd have two teammates *begging* him not to be the one who cast the deciding vote on Lassr, especially when Lassr was sitting there at 5 votes.

Which is what makes it a good safe play. Seriously, you played a great bad guy and won us the game in the game we played evil together. You are putting way too much emphasis on votes and may be allowing yourself to be toyed with. I'm leaning toward you toying though. Day 1 got started on wrong propositions and we're seeing ripples from that now on day 2. If we don't straighten out the course we're going to be up against the wall.

[triggercut]

You underestimate the willingness of bad guys to sacrifice each other I think.

On day one? You're suggesting that the wolves would find it to be good strategy to sacrifce one of their team?

Are you nuts?

No, the wolves might throw some half-hearted accusations at one another. See, for instance, Austin "poking the quiet one" at Zurai, and acccusing him....then Zurai showing up close on the heels of that and Austin pulling his vote down before any sort of bandwagon could build up.

That's the sort of voting against each other gamesmanship that teammate badguys play on the first day. They don't send one of their own to the noose though. No way in hell.

[Remus West]

That's the sort of voting against each other gamesmanship that teammate badguys play on the first day. They don't send one of their own to the noose though. No way in hell.

It has happened before. More than once.

[pr0ner]

I know I'm innocent.

Trig, saying that I have to be a wolf if Lassr is a wolf is, therefore, absurd and incorrect.

Though I don't quite get Remus being SO sure that Lassr was a wolf.

And I'm still suspicious of Austin. Just because.

[triggercut]

I know I'm innocent.

Trig, saying that I have to be a wolf if Lassr is a wolf is, therefore, absurd and incorrect.

Though I don't quite get Remus being SO sure that Lassr was a wolf.

And I'm still suspicious of Austin. Just because.

If you're innocent, then Austin's 99% wolf and Lassr was innocent. That's the corollary to "If Lassr was a wolf, pr0ner must be a wolf".

I don't buy the corollary.

I have to go to work. I hope we have at least 2 specials standing. If the entire village comes out and tells me I'm full of it, then I'll believe that one of our specials knows that Austin is clean.

If anyone doesn't, I'm sticking to my guns.

For now, I'll put my money where my mouth is. Lynch Austin.

If that gets the wolf wagons rolling toward me for the noose, all I ask is that the deciding vote be held until I get a chance to defend myself one last time. Thanks.

[Austin]

Back at ya'. Triggercut

[pr0ner]

Well, it's good to see someone else still buys Austin as wolf.

Lynch Austin

[Austin]

Well, it's good to see someone else still buys Austin as wolf.

Lynch Austin

Forgive him, he knows not what he does.

[Remus West]

Though I don't quite get Remus being SO sure that Lassr was a wolf.

I'm not SO sure. I just think it silly to completely disregard the possibility of his having been one. That just makes no sense at all to me.

[Austin]

withdraw Triggercut

I don't know that he's a wolf or misguided. I'm tired of fighting it out though. I'm not a wolf, and I will not suicide so don't expect a self-vote. I'll mirror Triggercut's request that I not be put over until I have a chance to speak though.

[Remus West]

withdraw Triggercut

I don't know that he's a wolf or misguided. I'm tired of fighting it out though. I'm not a wolf, and I will not suicide so don't expect a self-vote. I'll mirror Triggercut's request that I not be put over until I have a chance to speak though.

Melodramatic much Mr at 2 votes?

[Mr Bubbles]

Lynch Austin Just seems like a lot of the tricks I used to use as a wolf. I feel pretty confident that he's a wolf and that we'll be one step closer to winning.

[Remus West]

Not that I have anything to say he isn't a wolf, but 3 votes on Austin none on anyone else? Something to keep in mind for those who know more than I right now.

[Unagi]

Wow. What a difference a day makes.
I appreciate triggercut and Newcastle's posts. I think it's most helpful to see how everyone is thinking right now.

Maybe this is a good place for me to start my analysis against Austin.
To begin with, I'm still exceptionally suspicious of Austin. To wake up this morning to his optimistic view of things was jarring. I thought to myself, "My god, what have we done."

I think we're in good shape.

Actually I am most certainly worried we (I) may have missed on the Lassr thing. And frankly, I think that is a very natural villager concern. At least 3 Villagers voted for Lassr, if not more. I ask those of us that did to ask themselves this: Are you as sure as Austin is, that "we" got one?

Austin is a wolf, and I am nearly* sure of it for what amounts to all of the reasoning triggercut has spelled out. Of course only I am certain that I am not a wolf (scans and/or confessions aside). Additionally, I'm also putting a good bit of trust in pr0ner that may not be warranted, and that does haunt me a little.
Ultimately, I feel like the only way Austin is innocent is if pr0ner is a wolf, there is a chance of that.

Austin's excuses of how he can guarantee he wouldn't have voted one way or another if he was a wolf is totally meaningless. Period.
Making that argument is a very classic wolf ploy, but since he knows that - he couldn't possibility be a wolf, right? (/sarcasm).
Also, Remus's insistance that wolves are OK with sacrificing themselves, while it may be true, it is also meaningless, because it's also a fact that they would rather not if they didn't need to, and triggercut was right to show how they didn't need to. They really didn't need to.

I'd also like to take this moment to answer Newcastle's request of everyone to describe their votes and why they made them.
My initial vote for Austin was based off his Early Day 1 posts, followed up by my suspicion regarding his reaction to my initial analysis / vote.
Not soon after, Lassr (also on my short list at the time) - responded with such force to my initial analysis / vote that I privately moved him up to "just as likely as Austin". I'll also be honest, I was getting a little impatient. The fact that Lassr was 5/6 was really all I needed to say - "OK, Lassr then." The absolute only thing that upset me about that vote was that Austin and Remus were both voting that way... and clearly I was suspicious of them both. (The only honest thing I think Austin has said was that he didn't expect me to shift my vote to Lassr.) So, anyhow - that was my reasoning.

When tru1cy ended up being dead, I thought that I for sure made the wrong vote.

It would also be handy to have a special around who can first be confirmed, and then confirm the seer via PM's if required.

Let me get this straight. You think that the Priest or Corroner should establish themselves and then wait 1 night and confirm the Seer via PM? Uhh, wait - is that as totally stupid as it sounds to me? So lets say the priest comes out, then Oppps - the next day he's dead and can't confirm the Seer via PM. You can't have meant that Austin.

Lynch Austin
I'm not budging this time.

[Remus West]

It would also be handy to have a special around who can first be confirmed, and then confirm the seer via PM's if required.

Let me get this straight. You think that the Priest or Corroner should establish themselves and then wait 1 night and confirm the Seer via PM? Uhh, wait - is that as totally stupid as it sounds to me?

Yes, it is. Keep in mind though, who is most hyper aware that there is/is not a protector in this game and how that effects that statement.

[Unagi]

triggercut: Zurai (w), Austin
Austin: triggercut (w)
pr0ner: Austin
Mr Bubbles: Austin
Unagi: Austin

No Votes:
Silky
Newcastle
Zurai
Remus West
Austin

Vote Totals
Austin: 4

(pretty sure that's correct)

[Unagi]

It would also be handy to have a special around who can first be confirmed, and then confirm the seer via PM's if required.

Let me get this straight. You think that the Priest or Corroner should establish themselves and then wait 1 night and confirm the Seer via PM? Uhh, wait - is that as totally stupid as it sounds to me?

Yes, it is. Keep in mind though, who is most hyper aware that there is/is not a protector in this game and how that effects that statement.

Could you spell that one out for me, cause I don't know what you are driving at really.

[Remus West]

It would also be handy to have a special around who can first be confirmed, and then confirm the seer via PM's if required.

Let me get this straight. You think that the Priest or Corroner should establish themselves and then wait 1 night and confirm the Seer via PM? Uhh, wait - is that as totally stupid as it sounds to me?

Yes, it is. Keep in mind though, who is most hyper aware that there is/is not a protector in this game and how that effects that statement.

Could you spell that one out for me, cause I don't know what you are driving at really.

The statement implies the use of the protector role. I.E. a special comes forward and lives through the night to then be used as the PM recipient. If you are not paying attention to the fact that there is no protector you might slip and use this as it has been tried before in other games, keep the special alive one night longer type thing. A vanilla villager is the only role I would expect to be in the position to make the slip.

I'm not saying that is what was going on. I'm not saying it was unintentional if it is what was going on. Austin is slick enough to pull something like that as a wolf. I am saying that Austin is at 4 votes and no one has really examined anything else.

If you were a wolf, who would you try to railroad today? Austin would seem like a prime target to me. He was close yesterday so why shouldn't he be pushed over the edge today? And so quickly. Do we really have that much more information that we can dive headlong into it? Most of us do not.

Triggercut mentions how the wolves would have flirted with voting each other. He even mentions Austin's Zurai vote. He completely ignores the triggercut/Silky voting tiff. Why? It is the exact same behavior yet it is enough to condemn Austin and we should over-look it in him? I do not bring this up to condemn triggercut or Silky. I bring it up to point out how things are being glossed over that may be important.

Austin may be a wolf and maybe we do end up lynching him today. I do not know. I do know that this bandwagon is filling damned fast and I do not like that. The only times I have seen a group of villagers rally quickly behind something is when they were being duped. Other than that we tend to drag our feet and mull it over. Take off the blinders folks. See more than Austin. Examine the whole picture. Then, if you want to vote Austin, feel free.

[pr0ner]

Withdraw Austin

I don't feel comfortable with him being so close to the edge until he gets a chance to speak, as he's requested.

[Unagi]

Remus, you are really Austin's champion throughout this entire game. I can see all of the points you are bringing to our attention, but it seems like you are constantly coming in with the calm and sober idea that we all relax and consider someone besides Austin. You always say you don't know if Austin is a wolf or not, but your heart hasn't been behind any of the 'Maybe he is' arguments... you mearly state that it's indeed true that he might be a wolf, but that you don't see it (which is fair enough I suppose.)

[Unagi]

Also, I don't think for a split second that Austin might have thought this game had a protector. Maybe if he didn't just come off 2 games in a row that didn't have a protector - I could believe it.

I actually thought that I must not have been reading it right, it sounded so obviously ill-fated.

[Austin]

Withdraw Austin

I don't feel comfortable with him being so close to the edge until he gets a chance to speak, as he's requested.

Thank you. I'll get some responses in now.

[Austin]

Regarding the confusion of what I meant about having a special to prove the seer, I didn't mean lets have all the specials run forward just for that. I'm looking at it as if the seer isn't trusted, he'll need a reliable source for proving himself. Only another special is capable of performing that function. this typically isn't needed as wolves cannot afford to allow the seer to live but might if they think he's PM'ing. (they'd kill the PM target)

Give me another 30 minutes or so please and thank you. We had Luke's belt test for Karate and such, got the kids down and are going to eat something. I'll jump back on shortly. I actually wasn't expecting to be up to 4 when I got home.

[Austin]

Let me ask you a question. If you're me and you're the seer how do you stay alive long enough to get scans? You start out at 3 vote off the bat. you can't be obvious with hints as the wolves will get you at night. This was my dilemma - again.

I was fairly serious about being tired of fighting this game. I don't think Lassr was a wolf but I knew he wasn't special. (99% sure) I figured surviving one more night and getting one more scan would be worth Lassr though. So here we are. I'll die tonight (or maybe today at this rate) but I have info and it will help.

Last night I scanned Remus and he's a non-wolf.
Night 1 I scanned Pr0ner and he is a wolf.

Reasoning will have to wait until after The Office. I expect pr0ner to throw an immediate vote on and if there is another wolf or two out there I might be dead quickly so tread carefully.

[pr0ner]

HOLY SHIT.

Austin is a wolf.

He's lying, 100%.

I am totally, completely innocent.

[pr0ner]

BTW, when tru1cy posted his note that he felt that the lack of a railroad on Austin proved Austin's wolfiness, Austin's response and sole defense was to quote tru1cy and then add:

"/boggle"

Ho-kay.

First point of business as to why Austin is wolf: Austin's "boggle" response to tru1cy's reasoning as to why Austin is wolf.

Second point of business as to why Austin is wolf: his continued claims, over and over on day 1, that he thought I'm innocent. If you "knew" I was a wolf (which is totally wrong, by the way), why wasn't there at least a token vote thrown my way?

Third point of business as to why Austin is wolf: the attacks leveled at anyone accusing him of being wolf. Lassr is dead. tru1cy is dead. I'm the next target. See a pattern here?

FYI, while I'm at it, I'd like to point out that Unagi withdrew his vote on Austin to cast the kill vote on Lassr. Out of everyone to vote for Austin on day 1, he is the only withdraw.

[pr0ner]

However, I've just noticed that Unagi has a vote on Austin today, and won't budge, so I have a strong feeling he's innocent.

I also feel Triggercut is innocent, though I'm not sure why Austin didn't make a false seer claim on Triggercut, since Triggercut is more of an analysis threat than I am.

Remus, you've just shot to the top of the suspicion heap once we're done with Austin. You can thank Austin for that.

[Remus West]

Remus, you've just shot to the top of the suspicion heap once we're done with Austin. You can thank Austin for that.

Fine with me. Only fair since I lean more towards believing Austin than believing you.

As for being Austin's champion this whole game, I do not think thats true. I have been trying to keep folks from gang-piling on weak information. I have not agreed with ANY of the reasons for going after Austin. I have addressed those reasons. I continue to say I do not know if he is a wolf because I have no way to be certain right now. Simple as that. The fact is though that he has not acted in a way I think consistant with wolvish behavior.

I will go back though to check what he did on the first day regarding pr0ner. As for stateing that he thought pr0ner might be innocent though, that strikes me as a good way to stay alive at night. You will recall when I said it looked like Silky was the Seer and had scanned triggercut I did it because I thought he was basically calling to be eaten in the night if he were.

I'm also not willing to throw out the idea that both pr0ner and Austin are wolves. Although I think that a far reaching idea since if we lynch pr0ner and Austin survives they risk us turning lynching him the next day.

So, pr0ner and Austin, share with us your theories on why tru1cy was killed if you would be so kind.

[Remus West]

By the way, regardless of how you feel about it I suggest that folks pull their votes until we have a chance to talk about this new development.

Assuming Austin is true then we have a block of 2 right now. If the Priest can add a block of three others (himself + two) then we have a block of 5. Controlling votes. The Coroner stays quiet and lets us know the result of the pr0ner lynch, should we choose to go that way, and we know completely where we stand come tomorrow.

[pr0ner]

Damn Remus.

Austin is a wolf. There is no ifs, ands, or buts about it.

The fake seer role is being played, again, and he's playing you like a fiddle. You're assuming he's telling the truth. Can't you even consider the possibility that he's not?

[pr0ner]

Besides, Remus, why should you waste an innocent life (mine) and put the wolves that much closer to victory (most likely 4-3 tomorrow) when I know, without question, that Austin is a wolf?

[Remus West]

Besides, Remus, why should you waste an innocent life (mine) and put the wolves that much closer to victory (most likely 4-3 tomorrow) when I know, without question, that Austin is a wolf?

Because I do not know you are innocent? Because there should be someone to come forward to contradict Austin (save for the Grund/tru1cy as Seer possibility)

Anyway, on to some quoteing:

Day 1 stuff:

And I was reading through Pr0ner in the other thread, looking for clues, and came across it. Pr0ner, what do you think I have found?

From the get -go I figured I was going to be pushed toward the noose today. I'm at 4 now so be careful as they can put me over at any point. I bet there is already 1 wolf voting for me at this very moment, strange, but anyway they might have two more votes ready to go. I'd hate to go to the noose and waste my life with info ungathered and some leads being unfruitful. If I'm to be lynched, that's okay, but give me a little more time to finish up some thoughts and deliver some parting words. He who has ears, let him hear.

I think we just need to nuke the town from orbit. It's the only way to be sure.

Yes, last game we should have used fire, the noose is too damn unpredictable it seems.

Does a seer come out on day 1 if he caught a wolf? Does a priest come out when he finds a dead wolf?

On to day 2:

At this point I think the seer comes out with 1 wolf.

Damn it I lost the post where he did say he leaned towards thinking pr0ner was innocent. I'll go back and get that in a minute.

What I noticed most though was the two references to last game. First about going back and reading pr0ner - who was a wolf. Then the comment about the noose being to unpredictable. Interesting comments. Planted or hinting?

Off to get that other damned quote.

[triggercut]

We should start a game sometime where Austin actually is a seer. He seems to really want to be one.

I kind of think our seer is dead. I think it was Grund. Just a hunch, no analysis beyond that.

As for Austin....dear lord.

I'm not sure I read the rules of the game correctly, but I think if you scan someone as innocent, it's probably not the best play for the seer to steer that person toward the gallows. Especially when the vote balance in teams is 8-3. That's a perilously thin margin for the village.

Austin's a wolf, bank it.

Funny thing is, I was 33% sure that Remus was innocent until today. Now I'm leaning on him as a suspect. I dunno.

[Remus West]

I still think Lassr will turn up wolfy. I am sure he is not powered; no way he would have left for the day without coming out or leaving a strong BACK OFF hint. As a wolf he very well could have decided to wait and see while he was gone. We had been stuck at 4:4 for a long time and there weren't any signs of that changing in the afternoon. But it did, and I think we got one. I wouldn't be surprised if one of the last 2 votes came from a wolf also. "I'm going down, get on the vote for me!" Were I a wolf I'll tell you exactly how I would have played it. I would have cast the 5th vote on myself - especially this game with 2 other wolves playing.

The tru1cy thing I'm not so sure on. He didn't strike me as special. He kind of struck me as, well tru1cy. His and pr0ner's votes for me I just expect. It would be an incredibly stupid play by the wolves to waste a vote trying to frame someone rather than trying to kill the seer/coroner/priest though so I've got nothing.

I have pages of Triggalysis to wade through. I still lean toward pr0ner being innocent and I'm not ready to jump all over Remus yet. I think it's very likely, assuming Lassr innocent, that there was 1 wolf on Lassr, 1 on me and one on neither. It's a good safe play. If Lassr was a wolf, I'd say 1 on Lassr (one of the last 2) and 1 on me, which would have been Lassr and 1 on neither. That said, people make moves I don't understand all the time - explains different play styles to Unagi.

I think we're in good shape. At this point I think the seer comes out with 1 wolf. It would also be handy to have a special around who can first be confirmed, and then confirm the seer via PM's if required.

Coloring added by me. Interesting to me that he mentions the two of us. Coincidence?

[Austin]

We should start a game sometime where Austin actually is a seer.

Last game. Same as last game. I don't have a lot of time tonight as it turns out. The wife beckons and I have a couple other games to attend to before bed. Sorry to disappoint but I have left a trail and did plan on a Day 3 reveal but my hand got forced, go figure.

[Remus West]

triggercut, since you are here, know that it speaks very badly of you that you do not remove your vote. Regardless of the veracity of Austin's claim we need to give the village time to digest it before stringing anyone up.

[Silky]

I am leaning twords Austin being a wolf but will not vote until others check in. There might be some conflicting information. Who knows. Like others I do not trust the seer claim.

What is the first thing a wolf would do if he is about to be lynched? Why claim to be a special. That way he might either avert his own lynching for a night or draw out the real seer. This is certainly something that has weighed heavily on my mind especially with a "best case scenario" night one wolf lynching.

He was dropping hints that he was a special but my assumption was a priest. That I would of had a little easier time believing. Sometimes I like to look at the odds on these things. Now keep in mind some very unlikely things have happened in the number of games I played. But from a straight numbers chance Austin has a 1 in 12 chance of being the seer but a 3 in 12 chance of being a wolf.

[Remus West]

oh, and where do you get your percentages?

[triggercut]

I still think Lassr will turn up wolfy.

Even though you just said you're actually 99% sure he isn't?

Huh.

[Austin]

I still think Lassr will turn up wolfy.

Even though you just said you're actually 99% sure he isn't?

Huh.

I was still trying to see if I could get to day 3. Anyway, I'm off to bed. (the wife beckons yet again)