Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Punisher · Post by **Punisher** » Mon Mar 09, 2020 11:26 am

TheMix wrote: Sun Mar 08, 2020 4:24 pm
Holman wrote: Sun Mar 08, 2020 4:21 pm Trump is a known germophobe with a real hang-up about contagion.

This is going to end with him holed-up Howard-Hughes style in the Residence with duct tape over the windows.
The question is whether his NEED for for adulation will overcome that. It's going to be really tough for him to give up his rallies.

He can always use the clear sheets of plastic for the windows.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Mon Mar 09, 2020 11:31 am

https://twitter.com/i/status/1235974551487623168

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Mon Mar 09, 2020 11:41 am

Punisher wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 11:24 am
LawBeefaroni wrote: Sat Mar 07, 2020 6:34 am
The expanding coronavirus outbreak isn’t only inspiring Americans to buy out hand sanitizer, groceries, flu medication and toilet paper -- it’s also leading to increased ammunition sales, one company said.

...

Ammo.com said that four states saw an increase in sales greater than 100 percent. At the top of the list was North Carolina, which saw an increase of 179 percent, followed by Georgia with an increase of 169 percent.

Pennsylvania and Texas followed in third and fourth places, with increases of 140 percent and 128 percent respectively.

Other states also saw increases, including Florida (76 percent), Illinois (67 percent), New York (48 percent) and Ohio (40 percent), according to Ammo.com.
Folks, water. You're going to want water.
but if you have enough ammo, you can always get more water!

Going out and getting water by force is risky no matter how much ammo you have. Water is heavy and awkward to carry. You're better off with a lot of water/water source and a little bit of ammo vs. lot of ammo and little water.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Mon Mar 09, 2020 11:49 am

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1237031047533117442

Here’s HHS Secretary Azar claiming on Fox News that “nobody is trying to minimize” the public health threat posed by coronavirus six minutes before President Trump posted a tweet doing just that

$iljanus · Post by **$iljanus** » Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:35 pm

Punisher wrote:
LordMortis wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 4:06 pm
YellowKing wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 2:44 pm I once read a novel in which all the adults got a disease that made them go crazy and only the kids were left untouched. This led to a Lord of the Flies type society where kids had to band together to survive the adult zombies.

So I'm just going with that.

Was that the Star Tek TOS episode?
If not, I seem to recall one with the same thing. (I "think" it was TOS..)

"TELL EM JIM! TELL EM JIM!... BONK BONK ON THE HEAD!"

Daehawk · Post by **Daehawk** » Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:42 pm

Miri

I was out amongst the old folks this morning at Goodwill building up my immunity.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:57 pm

I love how Trump’s response is

a) this virus is no big deal, not as bad as the flu,

and also

b) THANK ME AGAIN FOR CLOSING THE BORDERS!!!

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:11 pm

Holman wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:57 pm I love how Trump’s response is

a) this virus is no big deal, not as bad as the flu,

and also

b) THANK ME AGAIN FOR CLOSING THE BORDERS!!!

In many ways for Trump putting out totally contradictory messages is a feature, not a bug. It gets to be a "choose your own adventure" for Trump defenders in the media - you can pick quotes from Column A for the "Democrats are trying to play this up for political advantage" arguments, and quotes from Column B for the "actually Trump has been very vigorous and responsible in his handling of coronavirus."

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:14 pm

https://twitter.com/jameshamblin/status ... 0981989376

Italy has banned weddings and funerals for 16 million people. Japan has closed schools for a month. France and Iraq have banned public gatherings. The U.N. has canceled all physical meetings to address climate change. Americans are uncertain what to do about Coachella.

em2nought · Post by **em2nought** » Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:18 pm

It feels like God has finally answered the prayers of democrats, maybe he really is on your side.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:19 pm

https://twitter.com/nyinla2121/status/1 ... 48005?s=21

Daehawk · Post by **Daehawk** » Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:22 pm

I burst out laughing. Thanks.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:46 pm

Yeah, that's a good one.

Jaymon · Post by **Jaymon** » Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:48 pm

Although I am not on campus, the Seattle area campus for my company is nearly deserted. Everybody working from home. Global efforts in progress to get everybody everywhere working from home, even in places not yet "hard hit" because we are assuming that everyplace is going to become hit hard eventually.

If you haven't seen the article it looks like the big guys are banding together to make sure the hourly contract folks are still going to get paid, even if they can't come to work, or don't need to come to work. I know it doesn't solve the problem for everybody on hourly everywhere, but its nice to know that some companies are using their superpowers for good.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:19 pm

It occurs to me that, if the Institute closes or goes online-only, the flow of campus news will dry up, and with it my income. Dangit! I've grown fond of having money.

Daehawk · Post by **Daehawk** » Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:52 pm

Maybe this will finally push the work at home thing into mainstream once the crisis is over.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:04 pm

Jaymon wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:48 pm Although I am not on campus, the Seattle area campus for my company is nearly deserted. Everybody working from home. Global efforts in progress to get everybody everywhere working from home, even in places not yet "hard hit" because we are assuming that everyplace is going to become hit hard eventually.

If you haven't seen the article it looks like the big guys are banding together to make sure the hourly contract folks are still going to get paid, even if they can't come to work, or don't need to come to work. I know it doesn't solve the problem for everybody on hourly everywhere, but its nice to know that some companies are using their superpowers for good.

This is a theme I'm noticing. The big business community is stepping into the leadership void. My company and my client's company all have comprehensive COVID-19 plans that go well above and beyond the guidance they are getting from governments. Especially this evil, incompetent administration. I'm pretty hot at the moment because anecdotally I heard several co-workers talking about how their older parents are buying into Trump's its only flu story line. Not to say a lot of dopes don't take flu seriously enough to begin with.

noxiousdog · Post by **noxiousdog** » Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:07 pm

Paingod wrote:CDC Statistics on influenza:
2016-2017, 29,000,000 estimated infections, 14,000,000 estimated doctors visits, 500,000 estimated hospitalizations, 38,000 estimated fatalities.
Approximate fatality rate: 0.13%

Trump's proud Coronavirus numbers:
546 confirmed cases, 22 deaths.
Fatality rate: 4.03%

The US is going to have some serious issues with this man advising everyone to go out and lick doorknobs.

If these numbers are accurate, we are panicking.

South Korea has done the most testing (by far) and is finding a 0.7% mortality rate which would be consistent with a very bad flu season.

I get being proactive, but I'm not sure shutting the world down is the right answer.

Is there good data that would indicate their data is incorrect?

Edit: current fatality rate per WHO is 0.7% for South Korea.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:14 pm

noxiousdog wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:07 pm
Paingod wrote:CDC Statistics on influenza:
2016-2017, 29,000,000 estimated infections, 14,000,000 estimated doctors visits, 500,000 estimated hospitalizations, 38,000 estimated fatalities.
Approximate fatality rate: 0.13%

Trump's proud Coronavirus numbers:
546 confirmed cases, 22 deaths.
Fatality rate: 4.03%

The US is going to have some serious issues with this man advising everyone to go out and lick doorknobs.
If these numbers are accurate, we are panicking.

South Korea has done the most testing (by far) and is finding a 0.6% mortality rate which would be consistent with a very bad flu season.

I get being proactive, but I'm not sure shutting the world down is the right answer.

Is there good data that would indicate their data is incorrect?

Italy has very different results. ~10% are serious or critical which may require hospitalization. Perhaps it is due to lack of testing but there are theories that there are two strains out there. One more mild and one that is more aggressive. However, it isn't just the mortality rate. It is the hospitalization rate also that is concerning. Some models have the hospital systems getting overwhelmed sometime in late April to early May.

Cylus Maxii · Post by **Cylus Maxii** » Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:31 pm

Trumps numbers are stupid. The most pragmatic way to calculate fatality rates is with a much larger sample and then to use died/(died+recovered)=fatality rate. Using numbers for active cases, where we don't yet know if they will live or die, when something is spreading exponentially is just bad statistical analysis.

The 5% number quoted does match the current numbers for recovered and dead in China using the more pragmatic analysis.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:38 pm

As noted, it is definitely a moving target. Assuming that the initial reports are accurate and age of the patient matters incredibly is prudent until proven otherwise. In that course, protecting elders looks like the right move now and might bring down the fatality rate significantly. This appears to be much more contagious than flu/coupled with the hospitalization rate so we have to take that risk very seriously. Anything to bend the curve to flatten the peak is potentially critical right now.

noxiousdog · Post by **noxiousdog** » Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:39 pm

Italy has very different results. ~10% are serious or critical which may require hospitalization. Perhaps it is due to lack of testing but there are theories that there are two strains out there. One more mild and one that is more aggressive. However, it isn't just the mortality rate. It is the hospitalization rate also that is concerning. Some models have the hospital systems getting overwhelmed sometime in late April to early May.

Italy has only performed 23k tests compared to South Korea's 110k (and that's of March 2).

I'd be shocked if infection rates don't come down significantly with wider testing. This has been consistent in each country as testing was wider distributed.

I do understand what you're saying, and there's good decision making to be made. It just seems like there's a lot of doom talk setting in that isn't warranted.

noxiousdog · Post by **noxiousdog** » Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:41 pm

Cylus Maxii wrote:Trumps numbers are stupid. The most pragmatic way to calculate fatality rates is with a much larger sample and then to use died/(died+recovered)=fatality rate. Using numbers for active cases, where we don't yet know if they will live or die, when something is spreading exponentially is just bad statistical analysis.

The 5% number quoted does match the current numbers for recovered and dead in China using the more pragmatic analysis.

That assumes you can trust any of China's numbers. And to be fair, I don't trust the US's either.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:44 pm

noxiousdog wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:39 pm
Italy has very different results. ~10% are serious or critical which may require hospitalization. Perhaps it is due to lack of testing but there are theories that there are two strains out there. One more mild and one that is more aggressive. However, it isn't just the mortality rate. It is the hospitalization rate also that is concerning. Some models have the hospital systems getting overwhelmed sometime in late April to early May.
Italy has only performed 23k tests compared to South Korea's 110k (and that's of March 2).

I'd be shocked if infection rates don't come down significantly with wider testing. This has been consistent in each country as testing was wider distributed.

I do understand what you're saying, and there's good decision making to be made. It just seems like there's a lot of doom talk setting in that isn't warranted.

Agreed it is not doomsday. Still Italy then has a more massive outbreak...that is still likely overwhelming their system. They actually have more beds per capita than the US by 40-50%. And you then have to figure some rural areas in the US are going to be very underserved by the medical system. As I was telling a friend this weekend...we'll be fine but don't get hit by a car in late April to early June.

Cylus Maxii · Post by **Cylus Maxii** » Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:44 pm

Agreed. I don't trust anybody's numbers yet. We'll have to see.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:49 pm

Here is a good example of the point I'm making. It might be 0.5% as they estimate and you still might see 500K dead in the US and a hospital system in critical condition overall.

https://twitter.com/CarolForden/status/ ... 4805650432

noxiousdog · Post by **noxiousdog** » Mon Mar 09, 2020 4:14 pm

malchior wrote:Here is a good example of the point I'm making. It might be 0.5% as they estimate and you still might see 500K dead in the US and a hospital system in critical condition overall.

https://twitter.com/CarolForden/status/ ... 4805650432

Even assuming those numbers are accurate, and I'm guessing it's well on the high side, those still going to be staggered with a buildup and fall off.

But if we get to those numbers, then clearly I should have been more worried.

It just seems to me that every time they do major testing, the cruise ships for example, it's way more widespread and not as dangerous.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Mon Mar 09, 2020 4:14 pm

Congressman Matt Gaetz (R-DUI), who wore a gas mask on the House floor last week to help Trump make light of the virus, just announced that he came into contact with a Coronavirus carrier at CPAC and is being tested.

Darwinian irony is the best irony.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Mon Mar 09, 2020 4:18 pm

Everyone, Trump is on this now. He has called a meeting for top Wall Street advisors to discuss Coronavirus strategies. Because they make the best ID doctors and epidemiologists, surely.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Mon Mar 09, 2020 4:22 pm

CNBC.

The White House is inviting Wall Street executives to discuss the response to the new coronavirus outbreak, an administration official told CNBC.

President Donald Trump is expected to attend the meeting, which is scheduled to be held Wednesday. Invitations were being sent out as of Monday afternoon, the official told CNBC.

No doubt Larry Kudlow was put on the job and called his buddies at the network to push this puff half an hour before the market closed.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Mon Mar 09, 2020 4:34 pm

noxiousdog wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 4:14 pm
malchior wrote:Here is a good example of the point I'm making. It might be 0.5% as they estimate and you still might see 500K dead in the US and a hospital system in critical condition overall.

https://twitter.com/CarolForden/status/ ... 4805650432
Even assuming those numbers are accurate, and I'm guessing it's well on the high side, those still going to be staggered with a buildup and fall off.

Right and the peak right now by best estimates is more cases than the system can support through an entire month (somewhere around May). So deaths from the disease might be 0.5% but other people will not be able to receive critical care potentially. It is a systemic stress. In fact, one reason the numbers in Italy might be high because many of the people with COVID-19 ended up getting pneumonia on top due to the systemic stress overwhelming the system. They couldn't contain fatal outbreaks of other diseases within the outbreak. Additionally, even if you have enough beds they predict shortfalls in supplies and critical ventilation equipment.

But if we get to those numbers, then clearly I should have been more worried.

It just seems to me that every time they do major testing, the cruise ships for example, it's way more widespread and not as dangerous.

Yeah I think the risk here is not clear for sure but many experts are sounding the same alarm. We have to take it seriously.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Mon Mar 09, 2020 4:35 pm

Holman wrote: Sun Mar 08, 2020 4:21 pm Trump is a known germophobe with a real hang-up about contagion.

This is going to end with him holed-up Howard-Hughes style in the Residence with duct tape over the windows.

https://twitter.com/Yamiche/status/1237 ... 18848?s=20

Pres Trump told aides he’s afraid journalists will try to purposefully contract coronavirus to give it to him on Air Force One and has asked the Secret Service to bar anyone who has a cough from the White House grounds, per Vanity Fair.

Daehawk · Post by **Daehawk** » Mon Mar 09, 2020 4:37 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 4:22 pm CNBC.

The White House is inviting Wall Street executives to discuss the response to the new coronavirus outbreak, an administration official told CNBC.

President Donald Trump is expected to attend the meeting, which is scheduled to be held Wednesday. Invitations were being sent out as of Monday afternoon, the official told CNBC.
No doubt Larry Kudlow was put on the job and called his buddies at the network to push this puff half an hour before the market closed.

Maybe Trump will nuke it. A beautiful perfect nuke.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Mon Mar 09, 2020 5:27 pm

https://twitter.com/Yair_Rosenberg/stat ... 2302236672

naednek · Post by **naednek** » Mon Mar 09, 2020 5:38 pm

El Guapo wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 10:35 am
Octavious wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 10:19 am My daughter has a DC school trip next month that she's been waiting for all year. I don't want to say anything, but I think there's a solid chance they cancel it.
I don't totally understand the logic of stuff like that. Unless and until we're at the stage of basically not going out in public unless there's an emergency, what's the difference between being out in DC vs. being out in NY?

have you seen DC and the people in it?

naednek · Post by **naednek** » Mon Mar 09, 2020 5:40 pm

ImLawBoy wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:07 am
GungHo wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 6:46 pm Well along with continuing to make us work on Christmas and Thanksgiving, the children's hospital I work for us continuing to make us take care of patients.

We did get some extra wipes to clean stuff though so that's...exciting?

I'll probably get this thing and it probably won't make me very sick. Probably.
What you gonna do?
This is a super fun time to have a kid currently in the midst of an extended stay in the hospital (on day 9, expected to go into next week). I visit daily, but I'm gearing up for my full time shift over the weekend. On the plus side, he's in isolation so everyone gowns up when they come in - maybe that will protect us?

Looks like we're in the same boat.. Day 18 here. And we had a patient who died of the Corona Virus in the hospital last week.

hepcat · Post by **hepcat** » Mon Mar 09, 2020 7:17 pm

My thoughts and well wishes are with both of you!

Grifman · Post by **Grifman** » Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:23 pm

malchior wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:49 pm Here is a good example of the point I'm making. It might be 0.5% as they estimate and you still might see 500K dead in the US and a hospital system in critical condition overall.

https://twitter.com/CarolForden/status/ ... 4805650432

I posted this previously

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:51 pm

And I posted what is likely the single best overview of what's about to happen yesterday and it was lost in the shuffle. Try to keep up.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:13 pm

I remember hearing that China built two new hospitals in two weeks in response to the crisis. Wonder what the possibility that we could do the same (we can just use gold to speed them up and have them completed next turn, right?)- and if there's any moves to do that.