Octopus Overlords

What's great about that Ed Yong interview is the pivot it to sociological. We have some of the best, most advanced scientists, richest Corporations, deep pockets of wealth, and still have one of the biggest manufacturing bases in the world. It is the will to govern that for a common good that is completely missing. At least with Biden we know that service is at least a goal of his.

Trump's out of time on a vaccine, and he's out of time on getting the economy back in shape. His fuck-uppery screwed any chances of having the virus under relative control by election time. Which is not surprising, because literally every decision he makes is short-sighted and self-defeating. At this point we're just running out the clock.

YellowKing wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 8:49 am Trump's out of time on a vaccine, and he's out of time on getting the economy back in shape. His fuck-uppery screwed any chances of having the virus under relative control by election time. Which is not surprising, because literally every decision he makes is short-sighted and self-defeating. At this point we're just running out the clock.

Can you imagine a world were, from day 1, Trump relying entirely on the experts and made it clear at every turn he was leaving it to the experts, and he really did leave it to the experts...
In that world, Trump may have actually looked like he helped get this under control, or at the very least did everything in his power to let the experts 'do their thing' - and perhaps we still would fail, but he would actually have the experts to point to and say that he did nothing to stop their plans.

I don't see how any president wouldn't follow that path.

noxiousdog wrote: Tue Jul 14, 2020 3:26 pm

Defiant wrote: Tue Jul 14, 2020 1:40 pm

noxiousdog wrote: Tue Jul 14, 2020 12:18 pm

I have said it before and I will say it again. The Democratic Party would never loose another Senate or presidency election if they'd modify their stances on abortion and guns.

I really *don't* think that's the case. We've seen pro-life/pro-gun rights Democrats lose elections. And you'd also have a large number of blue states/localities/communities where such a stance wouldn't fly at all.

That's why I'm talking about it on the national and state platform level. As long as it's part of the platform, and is a consistent message, it's not going to be believed.

And, at least on the issue of abortion, if you completely flipped it (outlawing all abortion), it would be completely inconsistent with the broader philosophy of the party (I could see a compromise stance possibly being viable, but I don't think it increases the viability of the party - IMO, the best option would be a pro-choice party that has room for some moderate pro-life stances by politicians from redder states)

It also assumes that if you co-opt one or two stances, people will ignore the whole partisan/culture war difference between the pro-American patriotic Republicans and those commie traitor loser Democrats that are coming to tax you to death.

I'm not suggesting flipping it completely. Just moderating the stance based on length of pregnancy with the appropriate exceptions.

Fair enough. It's a bit of hyperbole and I suppose Arkansas and Kentucky will still vote against racial equality. However, Most of the states only need a few percentage points to swing. Beto lost to Cruz by less than 3%. We're not talking about needing to sway a lot of voters.

There used to be a fairly strong pro-life wing of the Democratic Party. I believe at one time there were 40 pro-life Democrats in the House. I doubt if there are more than a handful now, if that many. There used to be room for pro-life people in the Democratic Party, but not anymore. That's why I don't/can't call myself a Democrat despite having much in common and oftentimes voting Democrat. It gets increasingly harder every year as the party abandons any moderation on abortion.

Now to get back on topic, Trump continues to sink in the polls. I've seen 3 polls in the last two days that show Biden with over 50% support and over 10% leads. The Economist now has Biden with over a 90% chance of electoral vote majority:

https://projects.economist.com/us-2020- ... /president

I'll note that many people continue to say that the polls will tighten. But will they? Trump continues to be Trump, laying waste to everything he touches. The pandemic is starting to really hit states where he has/had support, TX, FL, GA, etc. and his support is starting to wane in those states - and they are not a their peak yet with respect to the virus. Could his campaign just collapse?

Grifman wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 9:20 am Could his campaign just collapse?

One can only hope. I think that might be the most beautiful thing ever if it does. I have a little daydream I hold tightly of his losing every single state on election day. I just want him to have to face being hated in every state as punishment for how horrid he has been. I realize that is never going to happen but it is a nice little day dream.

Unagi wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 8:58 am

YellowKing wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 8:49 am Trump's out of time on a vaccine, and he's out of time on getting the economy back in shape. His fuck-uppery screwed any chances of having the virus under relative control by election time. Which is not surprising, because literally every decision he makes is short-sighted and self-defeating. At this point we're just running out the clock.

Can you imagine a world were, from day 1, Trump relying entirely on the experts and made it clear at every turn he was leaving it to the experts, and he really did leave it to the experts...
In that world, Trump may have actually looked like he helped get this under control, or at the very least did everything in his power to let the experts 'do their thing' - and perhaps we still would fail, but he would actually have the experts to point to and say that he did nothing to stop their plans.

I don't see how any president wouldn't follow that path.

I too find myself wistfully thinking about what might have been had Hillary won.

Grifman wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 9:20 amCould his campaign just collapse?

It already has. The last thing Trump had going for him, after he squandered his economy, botched the pandemic response, and generally laid waste to everything he touched, was his Aura of Invincibility with his own base. No matter how badly he screwed up, he managed to hang on to that last 42%. And while 42% isn't enough to reliably win with, it's enough to stay within striking distance. Then came the St. John's Church incident, which proved to be too much, even for his base. And that 42% floor, which had held for so long, finally began to buckle.

The thing about an Aura of Invincibility, while it IS great, is that once a blow actually lands, it evaporates. And he has nothing else to fall back to. The only question now is how much of the Republican Party does he take down with him.

Remus West wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 9:53 am

Grifman wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 9:20 am Could his campaign just collapse?

One can only hope. I think that might be the most beautiful thing ever if it does. I have a little daydream I hold tightly of his losing every single state on election day. I just want him to have to face being hated in every state as punishment for how horrid he has been. I realize that is never going to happen but it is a nice little day dream.

Yeah, that's my ideal dream. I know there was that whole discussion about wishing people dead, but in my ideal world, Trump has a 50 state loss in 2020 and then comes back and runs in 2024 and suffers another 50 state loss. Agreed that is not going to happen, but it does boost my spirits a little to think about it. Of course, if Trump wasn't a raging narcissistic ass, that would hurt him. But he would find someone to blame and so it wouldn't really affect him anyway. Sigh.

Malificent wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 10:09 amYeah, that's my ideal dream. I know there was that whole discussion about wishing people dead, but in my ideal world, Trump has a 50 state loss in 2020 and then comes back and runs in 2024 and suffers another 50 state loss.

Even Mondale didn't quite manage 50 - Trump probably won't either, but unless something truly unimaginable happens (Biden dies while eating a baby, Trump somehow becomes a responsible human being, aliens invade....etc) he is on track for a truly epic self-destruction. I legitimately think he might lose Texas. Texas.

And if he DOES get tromped that badly, then the political landscape will shift. When a party gets whomped THAT badly, the party changes. The Democrats had to change after '84, and the Republicans will have to change if my predictions are anywhere near accurate. I have no idea exactly how they will change, but they will. Which is a good thing - the Republican party as it currently exists is a disaster.

Grifman wrote:I'll note that many people continue to say that the polls will tighten. But will they?

Yeah, I think it's foolish to rely on precedent when you're living in unprecedented times. That said, I'll feel more comfortable if Biden's still up by double digits after the debates.

Little Raven wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 10:08 am The thing about an Aura of Invincibility, while it IS great, is that once a blow actually lands, it evaporates. And he has nothing else to fall back to. The only question now is how much of the Republican Party does he take down with him.

Which segues nicely into last night's research:

Suicidal behavior in individuals with NPD has been explained by the fact that their self-esteem is fragile and suicide attempt may be a response to a perceived narcissistic injury (Perry 1990). It has been suggested that suicidal behavior in individuals with NPD can be a) an attempt to increase self-esteem via a sense of mastery; b) an attempt to defend themselves against expected narcissistic threats; c) a revengeful action against narcissistic damage; d) a false assumption of indestructibility (immortality?); and e) desire to abolish an imperfect self (Ronningstam & Maltsberger 1998). It is important to note that NPD is frequently comorbid with other personality disorders such as borderline personality disorder. Comorbid personality disorders may substantially contribute to suicidality observed in individuals with NPD.

Little Raven wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 10:08 am

Grifman wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 9:20 amCould his campaign just collapse?

It already has. The last thing Trump had going for him, after he squandered his economy, botched the pandemic response, and generally laid waste to everything he touched, was his Aura of Invincibility with his own base. No matter how badly he screwed up, he managed to hang on to that last 42%. And while 42% isn't enough to reliably win with, it's enough to stay within striking distance. Then came the St. John's Church incident, which proved to be too much, even for his base. And that 42% floor, which had held for so long, finally began to buckle.

The thing about an Aura of Invincibility, while it IS great, is that once a blow actually lands, it evaporates. And he has nothing else to fall back to. The only question now is how much of the Republican Party does he take down with him.

That also happened at the same time NYC cops beat down an old man and trump said his camera was a threat and he was overacting his head trauma. I suspect no small fraction of elderly white, try to believe they are independent Trump supporters suddenly lost empathy for Trump's Blue Lives matter send in the troops attitude. I think that may prove to be a pivotal week.

YellowKing wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 10:19 am

Grifman wrote:I'll note that many people continue to say that the polls will tighten. But will they?

Yeah, I think it's foolish to rely on precedent when you're living in unprecedented times. That said, I'll feel more comfortable if Biden's still up by double digits after the debates.

Giving Biden a 90% chance is too strong, I would say (unless they're taking about an "if the election were held today" scenario), mainly because there's too much uncertainty with this still being several months out. Stuff could happen - a genuine Biden scandal, Biden dies / is incapacitated, miracle coronavirus cure / vaccine, etc. Also there's a very long baseline of Biden +6 before everything went to shit, so it wouldn't be super shocking if the race tightened at least somewhat (plus Trump probably still has an electoral college / voting suppression bump, so as in 2016 he only needs to get in the ballpark popular vote wise).

That said, things could easily go the other direction to (towards a Biden blowout). The most plausible scenario for that is that we get to late August / September and Biden's still up double digits (particularly if his lead is growing), then GOP institutions might start more explicitly planning for a post-Trump future. That's going to be limited by the faithful's adherence to Trump, but I think you could easily see more GOP officials and media outlets more explicitly going against him, causing a feedback loop.

Grifman wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 9:20 am Now to get back on topic, Trump continues to sink in the polls. I've seen 3 polls in the last two days that show Biden with over 50% support and over 10% leads. The Economist now has Biden with over a 90% chance of electoral vote majority:

https://projects.economist.com/us-2020- ... /president

I'll note that many people continue to say that the polls will tighten. But will they? Trump continues to be Trump, laying waste to everything he touches. The pandemic is starting to really hit states where he has/had support, TX, FL, GA, etc. and his support is starting to wane in those states - and they are not a their peak yet with respect to the virus. Could his campaign just collapse?

I really don’t want Trump to sink in the polls. I fear a repeat of 2016 left-wing voter complacency. I would like Trump to be ever-so-slightly ahead in the polls, so that “we just might vote him out if everyone gets to the polls.”

wonderpug wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:15 pm
I really don’t want Trump to sink in the polls. I fear a repeat of 2016 left-wing voter complacency. I would like Trump to be ever-so-slightly ahead in the polls, so that “we just might vote him out if everyone gets to the polls.”

Given the amount of outright hate by those who dislike Trump (About 54% *strongly* disapprove of Trump), I'm not that worried about people being complacent. On the other hand, the one area it might be helpful is in getting people to vote Democratic down ballot. I would think conservative anti-Trump people would be more willing to vote Democratic down ballot if they think there's a chance Trump will get reelected. But, frankly, I'd rather not have to deal with the stress of a close election. Plus, a landslide election (especially one we see coming) will make it harder for Trump to claim was fake.

wonderpug wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:15 pmI really don’t want Trump to sink in the polls. I fear a repeat of 2016 left-wing voter complacency.

I don't. Hillary was a deeply disliked candidate across much of the country. Even a lot of Democrats were not pleased with the prospect of voting for her, and Trump was new and shiny. Biden has none of those negatives, and Trump's approval rating is quickly approaching radioactive.

I very much want Trump to continue to sink. I want everyone who enabled Trump to sink with him. I want the political echoes of Trump to be so terrifying that both political parties banish populists from their ranks for the next 50 years. I don't hate conservatives - I've made peace with the idea that most people won't share my political ideas. I can live with a President who has different ideals than I do. But putting a disinterested fool in charge of the most powerful country in the world is a grave sin, and one that the Republicans must be made to pay for.

Little Raven wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:38 pmBut putting a disinterested fool in charge of the most powerful country in the world is a grave sin, and one that the Republicans must be made to pay for.

Look at the bright side: we probably won't be in a position to make the same mistake any time soon.

Fretmute wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:48 pmLook at the bright side: we probably won't be in a position to make the same mistake any time soon.

Nah. It takes more than even Trump to scuttle the hyperpower. Other countries have their problems as well, and while we're weaker than we were and weaker than we should be, we're still the biggest dog on the planet and will be for decades to come. Which just makes electing competent leadership all the more important.

Little Raven wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:38 pm

wonderpug wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:15 pmI really don’t want Trump to sink in the polls. I fear a repeat of 2016 left-wing voter complacency.

I don't. Hillary was a deeply disliked candidate across much of the country. Even a lot of Democrats were not pleased with the prospect of voting for her, and Trump was new and shiny. Biden has none of those negatives, and Trump's approval rating is quickly approaching radioactive.

I very much want Trump to continue to sink. I want everyone who enabled Trump to sink with him. I want the political echoes of Trump to be so terrifying that both political parties banish populists from their ranks for the next 50 years. I don't hate conservatives - I've made peace with the idea that most people won't share my political ideas. I can live with a President who has different ideals than I do. But putting a disinterested fool in charge of the most powerful country in the world is a grave sin, and one that the Republicans must be made to pay for.

Also to the extent that there's the possibility of left-wing complacency, there's a corresponding risk of right-wing despair. E.g., if everyone thinks that Biden has it in the bag, it seems just as likely that Trump voters will stay home because it won't make a difference as there is that Biden voters will. I'm not sure that there's a ton of data supporting either theory, for that matter (in 2016 the popular vote matched the polling averages pretty well), but even if there is an effect it's not clear which way that would cut.

Little Raven wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:56 pm

Fretmute wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:48 pmLook at the bright side: we probably won't be in a position to make the same mistake any time soon.

Nah. It takes more than even Trump to scuttle the hyperpower. Other countries have their problems as well, and while we're weaker than we were and weaker than we should be, we're still the biggest dog on the planet and will be for decades to come. Which just makes electing competent leadership all the more important.

I keep hearing people say this but I don't think enough are listening to the world outside our borders. There is a reasonable chance that we are going to find out this isn't true. It is changing rapidly. We may very well attempt to maintain the same size military for some time but our influence is going to wane quicker than many of us can imagine. The Europeans openly talk about how bad we are and are preparing for a world with America in decline. Trump was doing damage but our response to coronavirus has torn the blinders off. We aren't dependable. What stops another autocrat appearing in 4 years but only worse? Nothing. Unless we make fundamental reforms we are going to continue to be politically unstable and unable to deal with our problems. And they know it. We're bleeding out influence right now and Biden is at best spending 6 months next year dealing with coronavirus.

To give an all too painful reality check - I was on a call today where a colleague of mine in Texas was asked by a German about how bad it was in TX. The Texan responded that the stats were manipulated and it wasn't as bad as it seemed. Another german openly chuckled and then muted himself. We're laughingstocks and pitied. The reality is that the American concept of 'empire' and world leadership died this year. We just haven't seen it yet.

malchior wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:11 pm The Texan responded that the stats were manipulated

He's right.

malchior wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:11 pm and it wasn't as bad as it seemed.

And yet oh so wrong.

malchior wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:11 pm

Little Raven wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:56 pm

Fretmute wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 12:48 pmLook at the bright side: we probably won't be in a position to make the same mistake any time soon.

Nah. It takes more than even Trump to scuttle the hyperpower. Other countries have their problems as well, and while we're weaker than we were and weaker than we should be, we're still the biggest dog on the planet and will be for decades to come. Which just makes electing competent leadership all the more important.

I keep hearing people say this but I don't think enough are listening to the world outside our borders. There is a reasonable chance that we are going to find out this isn't true. It is changing rapidly. We may very well attempt to maintain the same size military for some time but our influence is going to wane quicker than many of us can imagine. The Europeans openly talk about how bad we are and are preparing for a world with America in decline. Trump was doing damage but our response to coronavirus has torn the blinders off. We aren't dependable. What stops another autocrat appearing in 4 years but only worse? Nothing. Unless we make fundamental reforms we are going to continue to be politically unstable and unable to deal with our problems. And they know it. We're bleeding out influence right now and Biden is at best spending 6 months next year dealing with coronavirus.

To give an all too painful reality check - I was on a call today where a colleague of mine in Texas who was asked by a German how bad it was. The Texan responded that the stats were manipulated and it wasn't as bad as it seemed. Another german openly chuckled and then muted himself. We're laughingstocks and pitied. The reality is that the American concept of 'empire' and world leadership died this year. We just haven't seen it yet.

I think there's still a real chance of bouncing back, but it depends first and foremost on Biden winning in the fall, and ideally on winning big. If Biden wins really big (15+ points, 37+ states) then I expect that will be viewed as a repudiation, both here and abroad.

El Guapo wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:14 pm If Biden wins really big (15+ points, 37+ states) then I expect that will be viewed as a repudiation, both here and abroad.

I think so too.

El Guapo wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:14 pmI think there's still a real chance of bouncing back, but it depends first and foremost on Biden winning in the fall, and ideally on winning big. If Biden wins really big (15+ points, 37+ states) then I expect that will be viewed as a repudiation, both here and abroad.

I get the hope but I think we'll find out this is incomplete. Funny enough they have an all too clear idea that this goes well beyond Trump. What I've found and I deal with Australians, Indians, Europeans, British people, etc. every day is that they are well aware about what is going on here. And better than many of us do. The long-term outlook is the problem. Let's say the voters repudiate Trump. Trump is well known as a problem but also an outcome of our dysfunction. Still, we'll very likely see GOP freak outs all over the country. Especially as the new administration tries to conquer the out of control coronavirus problem.

On top, the leadership in foreign nations-even our allies-are semi-openly preparing for America in decline. Some of that is precaution and some of it is prediction. Meanwhile, they'll be managing localized outbreaks of coronavirus and still blocking most travel from here. There is a high chance that the stock for the US in their eyes is going to be severely diminished for the foreseeable future. This is clearly a guess but I think we'll have a good sense by the end of next year how badly the US leadership position has been compromised.

malchior wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:11 pmI keep hearing people say this but I don't think enough are listening to the world outside our borders.

Maybe, but I don't think I'm one of them.

The world is not a zero-sum game, where any amount of power or influence lost by America is simply claimed by someone else. The United States has quite literally shaped the world as it currently exists and as America wanes, so will it. Which isn't to say we're the end of history or anything. A new order can and will arise, but it will take time, and if history is any guide, a LOT of killing.

Take Germany, for instance. Germany currently spends somewhere around 60 billion on defense spending each year....somewhere around 1/10 of what we do, and their force projection capacity reflects this. Now this is fine, because Germany doesn't particularly have to worry about a lot of existential threats, since the hyperpower sitting atop the world keeps things relatively passive. But as we fall, so does that assurance, and Germany suddenly has to start living a lot closer to the edge than it would like, or it has to start beefing up its defense budget in a substantial way, which reduces its ability to spend in other areas. And Germany is staring down the barrel of quite a few other guns. German mothers are not having babies, so they are rapidly aging. Immigration can obviously help with this, but it turns out Europeans are even more susceptible to "white replacement" propaganda than Americans are....domestic populations get very unhappy when large amounts of immigrants arrive. Which is doubly unfortunate for them, because climate change is not letting up, so mass migration from the Middle East and Africa will almost certainly increase in a very substantial way. So far, Germany has mostly tried to deal with this problem by paying Greece, Hungry and Turkey to take care of it for them, but that approach is utterly unsustainable over the long run.

It's easy to think that the US is somehow uniquely troubled in today's world, but that's simply not the case. Take any country, any continent, and the challenges are immense. I have no doubt that Europe is preparing for a world where America is NOT the hyperpower, and they are wise to do so, but that world is decades off yet. Rome didn't fall in a year or a decade, and neither will we.

malchior wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:23 pm

El Guapo wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:14 pmI think there's still a real chance of bouncing back, but it depends first and foremost on Biden winning in the fall, and ideally on winning big. If Biden wins really big (15+ points, 37+ states) then I expect that will be viewed as a repudiation, both here and abroad.

I get the hope but I think we'll find out this is incomplete. Funny enough they have an all too clear idea that this goes well beyond Trump. What I've found and I deal with Australians, Indians, Europeans, British people, etc. every day is that they are well aware about what is going on here. And better than many of us do. The long-term outlook is the problem. Let's say the voters repudiate Trump. Trump is well known as a problem but also an outcome of our dysfunction. Still, we'll very likely see GOP freak outs all over the country. Especially as the new administration tries to conquer the out of control coronavirus problem.

On top, the leadership in foreign nations-even our allies-are semi-openly preparing for America in decline. Some of that is precaution and some of it is prediction. Meanwhile, they'll be managing localized outbreaks of coronavirus and still blocking most travel from here. There is a high chance that the stock for the US in their eyes is going to be severely diminished for the foreseeable future. This is clearly a guess but I think we'll have a good sense by the end of next year how badly the US leadership position has been compromised.

I dunno. Germany is in many ways the de facto leader of the free world in the absence of the U.S. at the moment, and we're not that far out from Germany leading two world wars and intentionally murdering millions. Even just a few years out from Hitler, (West) Germany played a leading role in organizing the European community. Obviously the U.S. can bounce back (though some amount of relative decline is inevitable from the heights of the 20th century) - it's just a matter of how long and how much damage happens in between.

Heh, both Little Raven and I went to (different) Germany references.

Little Raven wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:38 pmIt's easy to think that the US is somehow uniquely troubled in today's world, but that's simply not the case. Take any country, any continent, and the challenges are immense. I have no doubt that Europe is preparing for a world where America is NOT the hyperpower, and they are wise to do so, but that world is decades off yet. Rome didn't fall in a year or a decade, and neither will we.

I don't entirely disagree but I still think the pace is going to shock people. This pandemic has exposed all our many, many problems. And those are nearly all internal. That'll lead to a cascading loss of influence and ability to face all the crises that are going to arise. We face health, financial and environmental catastrophes with little ability or capacity to act on them. Sure they rely on us but when we start failing to deliver it'll be like an earthquake. I think your prediction of decades is just far too long with all the headwinds. American hegemony will be dead by the end of the decade. Pure finger in the air guess but like I said we'll have a solid picture by the end of next year that'll be informed by the response to the pandemic by a Biden presidency. If it's Trump, all bets are off.

Edit: I don't think pointing at Germany is a great example. It took oh....50-60 years, a painful re-integration that still leaves the former East Germany a lingering pain point, and far, far better leadership than we've seen in many a year but for a few exceptions.

El Guapo wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:51 pm Heh, both Little Raven and I went to (different) Germany references.

Makes sense - as you point out, Germany is the natural successor state, at least in the West. (China is obviously stronger...but China is really, REALLY nasty and getting nastier all the time.) It's kind of depressing just how far behind us Germany is, though. If we really do collapse overnight, Germany is not ready to take our place, and the world will become a supremely darker place.

malchior wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:51 pm
Edit: I don't think pointing at Germany is a great example. It took oh....50-60 years, a painful re-integration that still leaves the former East Germany a lingering pain point, and far, far better leadership than we've seen in many a year but for a few exceptions.

But it didn't take 50 - 60 years. Like I said, West Germany was a key leader in the creation and steady integration of the European Community, just a few years post-Hitler. I want to say that the first treaty that laid the groundwork for the eventual European community (and then EU) was signed ~ 1948ish where France and West Germany were the key leaders.

Obviously there are going to be long-term repercussions and harms from Trumpism and Trump's actions. But saying that U.S. leadership is dead no matter what is taking it too far.

Though I feel a bit like I'm arguing with stessier on New England sports pessimism at this point.

malchior wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:51 pmI don't entirely disagree but I still think the pace is going to shock people. This pandemic has exposed all our many, many problems. And those are nearly all internal.

That actually super good news for us - internal problems are much easier to deal with than external ones. Yes, we're the middle of a political and generational transition, and those are always painful. But they are also temporary. We certainly face financial problems, but not particularly worse ones than anywhere else in the world. (heck, when it comes to financial markets, it's increasingly just ONE WORLD, period. Either we all stay up or we all fall down together.) And while the environmental problems are very real, they're also not unique to us - in fact, the United States is probably going to fare better than most countries when and if climate change starts really putting the screws to us. We at least have lots of relatively open land and handy geographic defenses, with the military ability to enforce them.

Edit: I don't think pointing at Germany is a great example. It took oh....50-60 years, a painful re-integration that still leaves the former East Germany a lingering pain point, and far, far better leadership than we've seen in many a year but for a few exceptions.

What other example would you choose? There's a reason both El Guapo and I defaulted to them - they are easily the second-most powerful Western nation in the world, particularly if you treat them as the defacto EU. So it's telling to look at them and realize just how far behind the US they actually are when it comes to projecting global power.

The transition of Germany of world power to Cold War pawn no doubt helped the West's resurgence.

Little Raven wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:58 pm

El Guapo wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:51 pm Heh, both Little Raven and I went to (different) Germany references.

Makes sense - as you point out, Germany is the natural successor state, at least in the West. (China is obviously stronger...but China is really, REALLY nasty and getting nastier all the time.) It's kind of depressing just how far behind us Germany is, though. If we really do collapse overnight, Germany is not ready to take our place, and the world will become a supremely darker place.

Germany's just not as big as the U.S. (to state the obvious), so there are natural limitations to its power. If the U.S. really does enter a sharp malchorian decline, I wonder whether there's renewed effort to really integrate Europe (to turn the European Union in some form into a genuine integrated nation a la the United States instead of the halfway hybrid it is today), as the EU would have enough clout to fill a U.S.-sized role.

El Guapo wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 2:16 pmIf the U.S. really does enter a sharp malchorian decline, I wonder whether there's renewed effort to really integrate Europe (to turn the European Union in some form into a genuine integrated nation a la the United States instead of the halfway hybrid it is today), as the EU would have enough clout to fill a U.S.-sized role.

That effort has been ongoing for 40 years now and has never stopped, but it did hit a MAJOR roadblock with Brexit, and they continue to struggle with how to integrate the relatively powerful northern economies with the relatively weak southern ones. Germans don't want to pay pensions for "lazy" Greeks and Italians, and the Mediterranean nations do not look upon German domination as a thing to be embraced. Given enough time, I suspect these problems can be overcome, but I'm very worried that climate change is going to come sooner rather than later.

Little Raven wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 2:11 pm

malchior wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:51 pmI don't entirely disagree but I still think the pace is going to shock people. This pandemic has exposed all our many, many problems. And those are nearly all internal.

That actually super good news for us - internal problems are much easier to deal with than external ones. Yes, we're the middle of a political and generational transition, and those are always painful. But they are also temporary.

This is where you completely lose me. We have zero line of sight on a governable United States. Biden could win 50 states and it won't change that outlook. I think this is the big disconnect for me. The unwillingness for people to face that the United States is shattered just hasn't hit home despite the last four years. If all this doesn't prove that we are completely ungovernable I don't know what will prove it. The Clinton, Bush, or Obama Presidencies were chock full of increasing dysfunction to boot. We've been trending one way for most of our adult lives. What is going to change that? The boomers finally dying off? We don't have another 5-10 years here to start repairs.

We certainly face financial problems, but not particularly worse ones than anywhere else in the world. (heck, when it comes to financial markets, it's increasingly just ONE WORLD, period. Either we all stay up or we all fall down together.) And while the environmental problems are very real, they're also not unique to us - in fact, the United States is probably going to fare better than most countries when and if climate change starts really putting the screws to us. We at least have lots of relatively open land and handy geographic defenses, with the military ability to enforce them.

I don't know what to say except that I don't understand how any of this is a good thing except being able to defend ourselves.

What other example would you choose? There's a reason both El Guapo and I defaulted to them - they are easily the second-most powerful Western nation in the world, particularly if you treat them as the defacto EU. So it's telling to look at them and realize just how far behind the US they actually are when it comes to projecting global power.

I wouldn't choose another example because nothing has ever been like this. The problems I'm talking about that you say are integrated (I agree btw) are exactly the risks we face. A big crisis amplifies all the risk since we are tied together and we might not have the cache or capacity to face that crisis. The best crisis scenario to consider is climate change. We still have entire influential swaths of our population denying it exists. What happens when it is too late to react? You are banking a lot on too big to fail working out IMO.

Little Raven wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 2:30 pm

El Guapo wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 2:16 pmIf the U.S. really does enter a sharp malchorian decline, I wonder whether there's renewed effort to really integrate Europe (to turn the European Union in some form into a genuine integrated nation a la the United States instead of the halfway hybrid it is today), as the EU would have enough clout to fill a U.S.-sized role.

That effort has been ongoing for 40 years now and has never stopped, but it did hit a MAJOR roadblock with Brexit, and they continue to struggle with how to integrate the relatively powerful northern economies with the relatively weak southern ones. Germans don't want to pay pensions for "lazy" Greeks and Italians, and the Mediterranean nations do not look upon German domination as a thing to be embraced. Given enough time, I suspect these problems can be overcome, but I'm very worried that climate change is going to come sooner rather than later.

Oh, there are major, major problems with EU integration and the EU structure. I'm just saying that notwithstanding Brexit, I wonder whether a sharp U.S. decline would provide a renewed boost towards EU integration (which might or might not involve all of the nations currently part of the EU).

malchior wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 2:31 pmI wouldn't choose another example because nothing has ever been like this. The problems I'm talking about that you say are integrated (I agree btw) are exactly the risks we face. A big crisis amplifies all the risk since we are tied together and we might not have the cache or capacity to face that crisis. The best crisis scenario to consider is climate change. We still have entire influential swaths of our population denying it exists. What happens when it is too late to react? You are banking a lot on too big to fail working out IMO.

I mean, obviously every historical situation is unique in some respects. But don't you think that Germany's....'leadership problems' (to be extremely kind) dwarfed the U.S.'s, at least to this point?

You seem to be saying that no one's ever going to listen to the U.S. again, and that seems to me an obviously untenable position (though how far we wind up between that pole and "everything's immediately fine on January 21st, 2021" is certainly debatable).

El Guapo wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 2:35 pm

Little Raven wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 2:30 pm

El Guapo wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 2:16 pmIf the U.S. really does enter a sharp malchorian decline, I wonder whether there's renewed effort to really integrate Europe (to turn the European Union in some form into a genuine integrated nation a la the United States instead of the halfway hybrid it is today), as the EU would have enough clout to fill a U.S.-sized role.

That effort has been ongoing for 40 years now and has never stopped, but it did hit a MAJOR roadblock with Brexit, and they continue to struggle with how to integrate the relatively powerful northern economies with the relatively weak southern ones. Germans don't want to pay pensions for "lazy" Greeks and Italians, and the Mediterranean nations do not look upon German domination as a thing to be embraced. Given enough time, I suspect these problems can be overcome, but I'm very worried that climate change is going to come sooner rather than later.

Oh, there are major, major problems with EU integration and the EU structure. I'm just saying that notwithstanding Brexit, I wonder whether a sharp U.S. decline would provide a renewed boost towards EU integration (which might or might not involve all of the nations currently part of the EU).

I actually expect that. For example, there is a Brexit-like movement in the Netherlands. It is starting to wither in the face of the British example and American decline.

malchior wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 2:38 pm

El Guapo wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 2:35 pm

Little Raven wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 2:30 pm

El Guapo wrote: Thu Jul 16, 2020 2:16 pmIf the U.S. really does enter a sharp malchorian decline, I wonder whether there's renewed effort to really integrate Europe (to turn the European Union in some form into a genuine integrated nation a la the United States instead of the halfway hybrid it is today), as the EU would have enough clout to fill a U.S.-sized role.

That effort has been ongoing for 40 years now and has never stopped, but it did hit a MAJOR roadblock with Brexit, and they continue to struggle with how to integrate the relatively powerful northern economies with the relatively weak southern ones. Germans don't want to pay pensions for "lazy" Greeks and Italians, and the Mediterranean nations do not look upon German domination as a thing to be embraced. Given enough time, I suspect these problems can be overcome, but I'm very worried that climate change is going to come sooner rather than later.

Oh, there are major, major problems with EU integration and the EU structure. I'm just saying that notwithstanding Brexit, I wonder whether a sharp U.S. decline would provide a renewed boost towards EU integration (which might or might not involve all of the nations currently part of the EU).

I actually expect that. For example, there is a Brexit-like movement in the Netherlands. It is starting to wither in the face of the British example and American decline.

France wasn't far behind the U.K. in terms of an 'exit' movement, but I'm pretty sure that's DOA at this point as well. At least for the foreseeable future.