Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[Kraken]

Republicans have tacitly decided that an ever-increasing death count is worthwhile for Trump's reelection. Some of the states that opened prematurely will try to suppress or obfuscate the numbers so that they don't have to clamp back down. Good luck with that, I guess.

Sitting here in MA, where the curve has still not turned downward, I suspect that we'll be able to start easing restrictions just about the time the red states have to slam them back down (that is, 2-4 weeks from now).

[Skinypupy]

Pres Bush put out a surprisingly touching call for unity yesterday.




Predictably, Trump attacked him for it this morning.

https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTr ... passion%2F

@PeteHegseth “Oh bye the way, I appreciate the message from former President Bush, but where was he during Impeachment calling for putting partisanship aside.” @foxandfriends He was nowhere to be found in speaking up against the greatest Hoax in American history

[Alefroth]

AND A DRAFT BEER!!! Jeez, man, focus on what matters. I can haz cheezburgers at home.

If I can make a kegerator, then anyone can.

[Skinypupy]

Posted tonight by now only the second person I've ever felt the need to cut entirely from my social media life. Sadly, a good friend and college teammate.

We are not all in this together.....most of you posting on social media are sick and immunocompromised...my friends and I are healthy and ready to get back to work and life!!!!!!! Stop asking me to stay at home because a very very small fraction of you may get sick and die!!!!!!!

These people are fucking insane.

A quick interesting postscript to this.

While we were no longer connected on FB, out of sheer curiosity I decided to do a quick search for him to see if he has been doubling down on the derp since we went our separate social media ways. His FB page is completely gone. As is his Twitter account. As is his IG page. Sometime in the last week, he has completely nuked his entire social media presence.

Makes me wonder if he caught some significant blowback for being such an asshole.

[malchior]

This totally says 'Open it up!'

Edit: LOL - Trump is putting a coronavirus briefing like meltdown. He claimed that Joe Biden wrote Trump a letter apologizing for calling Trump xenophobic. The Fox drones just let that one fly by.

https://twitter.com/mattdizwhitlock/sta ... 29/photo/1

[Holman]

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1257 ... 31200?s=20

As with fact-checker Daniel Dale, journalist Aaron Ruper is a must-follow for all Trump appearances.

They are to the Trump administration what the best on-the-ground journalists were to the Vietnam War.

[malchior]

Yup both are great. Tom Nichols provides great blow by blow criticism from a non-journalist #nevertrump POV. As to the goalpost moving on the dead? He's pretty much admitting no matter how many died he did a good job. He is an absolute monster.

Edit: I only wish we treated him worse than Lincoln.

https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status ... 1179166721

[LawBeefaroni]

"JB" is the Illinois governor.
https://twitter.com/Dennis_Kosuth/statu ... 3455003648


Meanwhile, Michigan Cosplayers Militia repping that Southern pride.

[Paingod]

If you think Trump's doing a good job, you've never watched one of his press briefings. I don't see how anyone who can actually dress themselves in the morning could look at that bumbling idiot and go, "You know, I'm glad he's in charge."

Literally every day reinforces that abandoning this party was the right thing to do.

I remain concerned that people think his idiocy is overblown by the media and fake news. All you need to literally do is open your eyes and watch the man. That's it.

If he was just a guy on the street, I wouldn't trust him with more than a ham sandwich. I wouldn't want him driving a car, selling food, handling cash, or working other menial jobs. I'd expect him to screw them all up.

[malchior]

Have there been any other modern (post-WW2) Western leaders where the mental illness was such a prominent feature?

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/sta ... 5375040512

[Daehawk]

We lead the world in infections, death, and lowest IQ in a sitting President. So ya congratulations.

[LawBeefaroni]

Have there been any other modern (post-WW2) Western leaders where the mental illness was such a prominent feature?

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/sta ... 5375040512

Field hospitals and beds? Wasn't that a month ago?

[malchior]

I think we know what the big "problem" is. This is borderline incomprehensible. What is he referencing that makes this classic? Racist says what?

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/sta ... 7843110914

[Defiant]

A number of reported cases of coronavirus patients relapsing after overcoming the disease were actually due to testing failures, South Korean scientists say.

Researchers at the South Korean centre for disease control and prevention (CDC) now say it is impossible for the COVID-19 virus to reactivate in human bodies.

This prompted concerns that the virus could be mutating so quickly that people were not necessarily immune to catching it again.

However, genetic analyses of the virus have not found any substantial changes which would effectively disguise it from the immune system.

The CDC added that unlike other viruses, such as HIV and chickenpox - which can break into the nucleus of human cells and stay latent for years before reactivating - the coronavirus stays outside of the host cell's nucleus.

"This means it does not cause chronic infection or recurrence," explained Dr Oh Myoung-don, the head of the CDC committee, meaning it is unlikely for patients to relapse in this fashion.

In the future it could be possible that the coronavirus mutates and infects people who have previously overcome it, similarly to the flu.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/sc ... r-BB13tm64

The headline of the article seems to overstate the finding (it implies that immunity is lifelong, but the content of the article doesn't state that the immunity is lifelong), but I think we can all give a collective sigh of relief.

[Smoove_B]

We have no idea if immunity is lifelong at this point - it's only been widely circulating for ~6 months. All we can do is monitor people that have recovered and see how their titers look.

Meanwhile in Arizona:

Two county sheriffs in Arizona say they will not be enforcing Gov. Doug Ducey's (R-Ariz.) stay-at-home order amid the novel coronavirus pandemic.

According to the Arizona Republic, Mohave County Sheriff Doug Schuster and Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb have both said they will not arrest or hand out fines to those violating a stay-at-home order issued by Ducey that seeks to limit the spread of the novel coronavirus, which data shows has infected thousands in the state and killed hundreds in recent months.

“My conscience will not allow me to arrest someone who is trying to make a living,” Schuster told the paper. “I don’t believe it is a crime to try and make a living.”

“I don’t think, for the most part, people want to be defying [the order],” Schuster added. “They’re trying to do what’s best for their families.”

More to the point:

“I felt [Ducey] pushed me into a position where I needed to make our stance clear,” he told the paper.

“The numbers don’t justify the actions anymore. Three hundred deaths is not a significant enough number to continue to ruin the economy,” he added.

[El Guapo]

It's mostly a function of viral mutation, right? Like in theory, if the virus never mutated, then everyone *should* get lifelong immunity, right? And if the virus mutated every day, then there would be essentially no immunity?

My sense is that the general view is that this virus doesn't heavily mutate, but that it's still early in terms of figuring that out - is that roughly correct?

[Defiant]

It's mostly a function of viral mutation, right? Like in theory, if the virus never mutated, then everyone *should* get lifelong immunity, right? And if the virus mutated every day, then there would be essentially no immunity?

I'm not a doctor (nor do I play one on TV), but I think it's possible that the effectiveness of immunity can decline over time (that's why booster shots are a thing).

My sense is that the general view is that this virus doesn't heavily mutate, but that it's still early in terms of figuring that out - is that roughly correct?

That's what I've read.

Based on current data, it seems as though SARS-CoV-2 mutates much more slowly than the seasonal flu. Specifically, SARS-CoV-2 seems to have a mutation rate of less than 25 mutations per year, whereas the seasonal flu has a mutation rate of almost 50 mutations per year.

Given that the SARS-CoV-2 genome is almost twice as large as the seasonal flu genome, it seems as though the seasonal flu mutates roughly four times as fast as SARS-CoV-2. The fact that the seasonal flu mutates so quickly is precisely why it is able to evade our vaccines, so the significantly slower mutation rate of SARS-CoV-2 gives us hope for the potential development of effective long-lasting vaccines against the virus.

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus ... -rate.html

[Smoove_B]

It's mostly a function of viral mutation, right? Like in theory, if the virus never mutated, then everyone *should* get lifelong immunity, right? And if the virus mutated every day, then there would be essentially no immunity?

Everyone seems really fixated on the mutation element of this virus, but I personally don't think that should be something we're concerned with right now. Complicating it is this idea that the virus is currently "mutating" (it's not) or that it's going to mutate (we have no idea). I think people are confusing the genetic clade tracing element (how we know where the viruses came from by looking at the RNA) with this idea that all of this various strains are "mutated" from the original.

Regardless, immunity from exposure and/or vaccination can go in any number of directions. Chicken pox? Seemingly life long immunity from both exposure and vaccination. Tetanus? Whooping Cough? 8 to 10 years from vaccine, maybe 15+ years from natural exposure (do not do this).

We're moving outside my area of knowledge, but fundamentally it comes down to the properties of the human immune system and how the agent (virus, bacteria) bypasses the body's protections. Think of it like a lock and key. Yes, mutations can change how the agent presents itself to the body, but sometimes the agent's presentation is such that it makes it difficult for the body to retain long term knowledge of prior exposure.

There was a really good article in Scientific American a few weeks ago, though I'm not sure if it's too much science stuff for those disinclined. A good takeaway and probably the most concise explanation I've seen regarding the difficulty of developing vaccines for coronaviruses (including MERS and SARS):

“If humans naturally make neutralizing antibodies [against SARS-CoV-2], then all we have to do is figure out what [sites they are] binding on the virus and really target that one little piece of protein, and that’s our magic bullet,” Bowdish says. For SARS-CoV-2, that target site is most likely on the so-called receptor-binding domain of its spike glycoprotein—a protein attached to a sugar that the virus uses to enter cells. But, Bowdish says, this spot may present a challenge because human immune systems are not very good at making antibodies against sugar-coated substances.

Sugar. It's always the sugar.

[LawBeefaroni]

I think we know what the big "problem" is. This is borderline incomprehensible. What is he referencing that makes this classic? Racist says what?

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/sta ... 7843110914

I think the "classic" part is that California now wants closed borders. No idea if they really do or not, but that's probably what he's trying to up say.

[LordMortis]

Today's word that made me laugh more than it should have.

Freedumb

[Max Peck]

Ken Turnage of Antioch, California may have lost his cushy city job, but I'm certain that he can land an even better position at the White House.

Calif. Official Ousted After Saying Herd Immunity Killing Elderly and Homeless Would Fix ‘Burden on Society’

A northern California city official took to Facebook to extol what he sees as the virtues of herd immunity to solve the coronavirus pandemic. But not too long after he hit “post,” he was ousted for his cold-hearted words.

Ken Turnage, the now-former chairman of a planning commission in the northern California city of Antioch, was removed from his position in a unanimous vote following a special meeting called by the city’s mayor on Friday.

Turnage’s ouster followed an uproar caused by a personal Facebook post where he expressed his endorsement of “culling the herd” during the COVID-19 crisis.

“The World has been introduced to a new phrase Herd Immunity which is a good one. In my opinion, we need to adapt [sic] a Herd Mentality. A herd gathers, it ranks, it allows the sick, the old, the injured to meet its natural course in nature,” Turnage wrote in the now-deleted post.

Turnage continued his heartless post, writing, “Then we have our other sectors such as our homeless and other people who just defile themselves by either choice or mental issues. This would run rampant through them and yes I am sorry but this would fix what is a significant burden on our Society and resources that can be used.”

According to NBC Bay Area, Turnage refused to resign, saying he was “baffled” by the criticism.

[Zaxxon]

monitor... and see how their titers look.

Dude, that's creepy.

[Isgrimnur]

monitor... and see how their titers look.

Dude, that's creepy.

It's always consensual. And sometimes they pay for it.

[Smoove_B]

Immunology humor...always appreciated.

[LordMortis]

Po tite ohs. Boil em mash em stick em in a stew.

[Paingod]

The CDC is predicting (currently) that by June in the US we'll be looking at 200,000 new cases and 3,000 deaths daily. That's 90,000 dead in one month according to their predictions. It's a numbing feeling I have when I think of it.

[LordMortis]

So I'm reading POtuS called the armed protestors inside my state capitol screaming racial slurs at the police keeping the peace "very good people" and I'm done with reading for the day.

[Skinypupy]

Oof.

https://twitter.com/cwarzel/status/1257 ... wsrc%5Etfw

the u.s. virus response feels so much like our response to gun violence. seems easy to prevent! others have! but it's not 'who we are.' a certain idea of freedom makes it impossible. so we move on and just learn to accept a level of human loss that other countries won't tolerate.

i imagine that we'll just (the WH leak just now seems to suggest this too) get used to a certain number of deaths happening as we do w/ gun violence/school shootings. & we'll hang our heads when it happens and do thoughts & prayers for families and hope it doesn't come OUR way

[El Guapo]

https://twitter.com/NickRiccardi/status ... 3633814532

From discussion I'm seeing online, there's a lot of weird stuff that's hard to explain about the leaked numbers (including the above). Which raises the question of how it was made, who leaked it, and why. Could be: (1) Trump administration leaking awful numbers to make terrible numbers look less bad; or (2) people within the administration leaking bad numbers to scare Trump away from going too hard on reopening.

[Holman]

The CDC is predicting (currently) that by June in the US we'll be looking at 200,000 new cases and 3,000 deaths daily. That's 90,000 dead in one month according to their predictions. It's a numbing feeling I have when I think of it.

Wait for the tweet bragging that GWB only managed one 9/11 while Trump gives you one *every day*.

[LawBeefaroni]

So I'm reading POtuS called the armed protestors inside my state capitol screaming racial slurs at the police keeping the peace "very good people" and I'm done with reading for the day.

It's the corollary to "bad people on both sides."

Michigan is definitely a big astroturfing target for the white nationalists and the gun cosplayers are desperate for attention.

[malchior]

This is pretty much a repeat of March and April. Trump downplays the current state for selfish reasons. Reality sets in, Trump goes through his stages of coping: denial and isolation, anger, self-pity, back to anger, and then eventually the gaslighting. That forces someone in the White House to leak information to keep him from completely melting down and going off the rails. Unfortunately, he also stoked the fires of rage out in the white terrorist faction and it might get out of control...

[Paingod]

Any day now he's going to propose nuclear strikes against COVID-19 in the US.

[malchior]

In the midst of a pandemic the US considering plans to roll back infection control protocols in nursing homes. No really.

[Holman]

[...] Unfortunately, he also stoked the fires of rage out in the white terrorist faction and it might get out of control...

A propos of that...

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1257344749784137732?s=20

[gameoverman]

Ken Turnage of Antioch, California may have lost his cushy city job, but I'm certain that he can land an even better position at the White House.

Calif. Official Ousted After Saying Herd Immunity Killing Elderly and Homeless Would Fix ‘Burden on Society’

I remember people like this saying the same kinds of things about AIDS back when that first appeared. The more things change, the more they stay the same. As long as the catastrophe hits people you don't like, it's not a catastrophe. In fact, they seem to be glad it's happening.

This is also consistent with what we see in these protests to reopen now. It's mostly all white people, and there have been plenty of stories about how hard this virus hits minorities in particular. I imagine it's a lot easier to like the idea of reopening soon when you know who it'll kill more and it's 'those people'. When the President ordered the meat plants to keep operating he knew who works there.

[Holman]

I had a close run-in with a virus denier today.

I had to run an errand and was masked and keeping distance, as was the clerk at the register. The unmasked guy between us decided to be audibly truculent about our masks, declaring that the virus was just the flu and that wearing a mask actually (somehow) "limits your immunity" and guarantees that the NEXT virus will kill you.

He stomped off and told us to enjoy our "face panties," a pejorative that neatly combines science-denial with misogyny.

Expect to hear more of this kind of thing. This guy didn't seem terribly creative, so I'm sure he was picking up his terms from elsewhere.

[Daehawk]

Maybe him and those like him will get ate by the virus. I wore my bandana over my face and sunglasses for my eyes today when I had to be out. I hate going out and prefer to stay safe at home. I saw people ignoring one way aisles, not wearing masks(many of them older people), and not distancing themselves. If someone stands near me for more than 2 seconds I move or tell them to.

[El Guapo]

I had a close run-in with a virus denier today.

I had to run an errand and was masked and keeping distance, as was the clerk at the register. The unmasked guy between us decided to be audibly truculent about our masks, declaring that the virus was just the flu and that wearing a mask actually (somehow) "limits your immunity" and guarantees that the NEXT virus will kill you.

He stomped off and told us to enjoy our "face panties," a pejorative that neatly combines science-denial with misogyny.

Expect to hear more of this kind of thing. This guy didn't seem terribly creative, so I'm sure he was picking up his terms from elsewhere.

I wonder where he got his PhD.

[LawBeefaroni]

From an evolutionary perspective, maybe it's most efficient to let everyone stand (or die) on their own. But then we should also eliminate all vaccines, farming, medicine, electricity, mass production, currency, trade; pretty much every advantage society bestows upon us.

Or rather, the proponents of laissez-faire individualism can eliminate it for themselves and everyone else can live in their weakened state. We can make a contest out of it.