Octopus Overlords

And the least productive.

mori wrote:In a country of 330 million, sure.

Do you have elderly parents? Grandparents?
My personal tendency is to take a deep breath and say 2% is a lot of people, but philosophically its acceptable losses.

Except thats not it. It's saying TEN percent is acceptable.

We all go back to business, and that trucker who lives in BFE does his run in houston and brings it back to church with him. And it spreads in Shiner, Texas. And they have 4 ICU beds. But 14 days later, 300 people who know someone from that Church now have it, 60 of them are in the hospital which fills it to capacity, 20 of them need ICU and vents, and 4 get it.
My dad doesn't get Corona, just regular pneumonia, can't get a vent, dies.
All 6 normal covid deaths happen.
50 percent of the other people who needed vents die, meh. Only five more.... The first week.

Three weeks after patient one, Mori's killed 11 people in BFE, multiplied out to every other small town across the county, that could have been avoided.


Plus.

My wife, who is essential, and has desperately worked to avoid it, gets even more exposed by the flood of new business. Or me, stuck in a fucking box filled with 3600 children who also have families and grandparents, gets one wrong puff aerosole viral load. We never even feel it. And watch both our live in, maximally at risk, parents die. Unnecessarily.

Because fuck. 2% It's bearable. And fuck those poor city dwellers, and black people, and blue collar, and service industry, and their families their live in parents, their child with asthma, the perfectly healthy brother who just lost the lottery. Death is just part of life.



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https://www.taosnews.com/stories/pueblo ... reak,63237

In my neck of the woods, our super dense urban skyscraper pueblos (San Felipe, population 2,790 and 54 cases; and Zia Pueblo, population 646 and 31 cases) have had their COVID counts jump up this week. Those cases are as of Tuesday, so it's presumably worse now. I wouldn't count on being rural to mean your community doesn't have to worry about this.

Quebec has banned all sports and public festivals through August 31.

If there are sports in 2020 beyond golf and the NFL (and maybe not even those), it's increasingly likely it'll be at neutral sites and/or behind closed doors.

One member of my group of four closest friends confirmed positive today. They sent him home to self quarantine (with his non-syptomatic wife and daughter). I guess he's a non-productive urbanite (well, gainfully employed suburbanite), though, so no big deal.

I thought the whole point was it's so viral that eventually almost everybody will get it, we're just trying to ensure it won't all happen at once. ...and the unfortunate aspect of that is it will go on for longer before almost everybody has had it. ...and prolonging it gives us time to work on solutions. So it's not anywhere near over, and eventually you'll get it. ...and when you do hopefully you're one of the lucky ones and those around you are too.

My comment was just about how it's not as bad as I thought it was going to be. I wasn't implying that the death it's caused was inconsequential. As far as getting things back to normal, I don't think we're anywhere close to that. I understood the purpose of social distancing and lockdowns to be to flatten the curve, that is to slow down the infection rate so as not to overwhelm the hospitals. "Slow down" the infection rate, not stop it. Once it's slowed if we reopen everything up we'll just start cranking up the speed of infections again. There has been no indication, to the best of my knowledge, that the virus is going away. It's like if you find ants in your house and you manage to kill them all. Your job isn't over, there are more ants outside and they have a way in and there is something in your home attracting them. If you don't deal with all that then you'll just have more ants in your home.

Zaxxon wrote: Fri Apr 10, 2020 7:18 pm

YellowKing wrote:A group of friends and I just had a virtual happy hour over Zoom where everybody brought a beer. It was a ton of fun just getting to hang out and chat for a couple of hours. We're really fortunate we have the technology to still be able to socialize in an environment where we shouldn't be able to socialize.

It really does help. My extended family and my workplace are both also using Zoom for happy hours.

For sure. I was thinking about how awful this would have been when I was a child, with very primitive computers, no internet and no game console in my house. I would have been bouncing off the walls.

gbasden wrote: Sun Apr 12, 2020 4:29 am

Zaxxon wrote: Fri Apr 10, 2020 7:18 pm

YellowKing wrote:A group of friends and I just had a virtual happy hour over Zoom where everybody brought a beer. It was a ton of fun just getting to hang out and chat for a couple of hours. We're really fortunate we have the technology to still be able to socialize in an environment where we shouldn't be able to socialize.

It really does help. My extended family and my workplace are both also using Zoom for happy hours.

For sure. I was thinking about how awful this would have been when I was a child, with very primitive computers, no internet and no game console in my house. I would have been bouncing off the walls.

My daughter cried when my home lost internet connection for 2 hours and she is only 5. It is almost a month now since she stopped going to school.

mori wrote: Sat Apr 11, 2020 9:40 pm In a country of 330 million, sure.

I believe one of wonderpug's points is that the curve hasn't even reached it's maxima so on what scientific basis do you say "we can relax"?

em2nought wrote: Sun Apr 12, 2020 1:13 am I thought the whole point was it's so viral that eventually almost everybody will get it, we're just trying to ensure it won't all happen at once. ...and the unfortunate aspect of that is it will go on for longer before almost everybody has had it. ...and prolonging it gives us time to work on solutions. So it's not anywhere near over, and eventually you'll get it. ...and when you do hopefully you're one of the lucky ones and those around you are too.

OR, we could be like all the other INTELLIGENT countries who have a handle on the virus: identify as many infected individuals as possible, do massive contact tracing on them, put all THOSE people in quarantine and repeat as needed until the virus disappears.

JESUS FUCKING CHRIST ON A STICK DO YOU THINK SOUTH KOREA AND GERMANY HAS SO FEW CASES BECAUSE THEY ALL WERE EXPOSED?

gameoverman wrote: Sat Apr 11, 2020 6:24 pm Los Angeles county is at 8400/244. I have to admit the numbers both in this county and in the country as a whole are far lower than I thought they'd be at this point in time. We're almost at mid April and when I look around at people I don't get the feeling that the situation is that much worse, if worse at all, than what the numbers suggest. I haven't heard from any family or friends about them getting sick OR them even hearing about someone they know getting sick. That doesn't prove anything, I know that, but honestly by now I thought things would be bad enough that I'd feel personally threatened by this virus and I don't. I feel kind of optimistic, like if I keep my distance I might actually be able to skate by without getting sick.

Sorry to burst your bubble but we as a country need to be on the same page with respect to this virus. This time (starting the week of Easter) is a temporary reprieve at best. Since we don't have a virus all of us are still at risk of getting it so at this point we only have two options:

1. Join the GOP and em2nought death-cult and open the country, consequences be damned and Russian roulette who lives and who dies. The "fuck 'em if they die, they probably weren't productive anyway" method.

2. Implement massive testing and contact tracing program the likes of which has never been done in this country. Find out who is sick, trace their contacts, put them all in quarantine, rinse and repeat. The "we'll make the virus go away by not letting it reproduce here" method.

Personally I advocate for #2.

I think there are three strategy for COVID-19:

1. Do a lot of test, do massive contact tracing, quarantine them.

2. Just quarantine everyone (force everyone to stay at home, etc.) maybe do this for a month or more for a whole country or a whole world. Then hopefully everyone that got it die or recover. So no more COVID-19.

3. Social distancing to flatten the curve but not trying to stop COVID-19. Eventually everyone get it and maybe 2-10% die.

The problem is that number 1 and 2 are probably not possible for most countries in the world.

Victoria Raverna wrote: Sun Apr 12, 2020 9:08 am I think there are three strategy for COVID-19:

1. Do a lot of test, do massive contact tracing, quarantine them.

2. Just quarantine everyone (force everyone to stay at home, etc.) maybe do this for a month or more for a whole country or a whole world. Then hopefully everyone that got it die or recover. So no more COVID-19.

3. Social distancing to flatten the curve but not trying to stop COVID-19. Eventually everyone get it and maybe 2-10% die.

The problem is that number 1 and 2 are probably not possible for most countries in the world.

You haven't said whether #1 was possible for the US but I would argue going to the moon was a lot harder. We have shown we can do great things if led properly.

raydude wrote: Sun Apr 12, 2020 8:47 am JESUS FUCKING CHRIST ON A STICK DO YOU THINK SOUTH KOREA AND GERMANY HAS SO FEW CASES BECAUSE THEY ALL WERE EXPOSED?

Well from watching Shogun I thought the South Koreans were probably like the Japanese and therefore much more clean and less like to transmit the virus than those of us of European decent. The Germans, I obviously thought it was their superior Aryan blood that's keeping them healthy. LOL I'm not sure where you read anything political in my post, or anything at all about going back to work.

How do you know whether you have Covid 19 or Covid 18? I Mean there have to be at least 18 more Civid virus' out there.

raydude wrote: Sun Apr 12, 2020 8:47 am JESUS FUCKING CHRIST ON A STICK DO YOU THINK SOUTH KOREA AND GERMANY HAS SO FEW CASES BECAUSE THEY ALL WERE EXPOSED?

The devil's in the details, because it may depend on how each country chooses to report their data on COVID-19 case fatality rates.

Germany's coronavirus death rate could be MUCH HIGHER than the official statistics

express.co.uk wrote:The coronavirus mortality rate in Germany might be much higher than is being officially recorded.

The latest figures from the Robert Koch Institute show that Germany has a case fatality rate (CFR) of 0.3 percent, while the World Health Organisation (WHO) figures from Italy seem to show a CFR of nine percent. The case fatality rate from coronavirus in Germany records the underlying health conditions as the cause of death, instead of reporting the death as the result of the pathogen. Doctor John Lee, a recently retired professor of pathology and a former NHS consultant pathologist, said: "The data on COVID-19 differs wildly from country to country.

"Italy has 69,176 recorded cases and 6,820 deaths, a rate of 9.9 percent.

"Germany has 32,986 cases and 157 deaths, a rate of 0.5 percent.

"We ought to suspect a systematic error, that the COVID-19 data we are seeing from different countries is not directly comparable."

The former pathologist argues the death rate is not being calculated uniformly across the world, he said: "Recording cases where there was a positive test for the virus is a very different thing to recording the virus as the main cause of death."

Unlike in Italy, there is currently no widespread postmortem testing for the novel coronavirus in Germany.

The Robert Koch Institute said those who were not tested for COVID-19 in their lifetime but are suspected to have been infected with the virus “can” be tested after death, but in Germany’s decentralised health system this is not yet a routine practice.

As a result, it is theoretically possible there could be people who may have died in their homes before being tested and who do not show up in the statistics.

We’ve seen the same thing in NYC, where they aren’t tracking home deaths, which have spiked substantially. Everyone’s numbers are basically undercounting everything (total cases, total deaths).

It’s a shit show all the way down.

I had to become an amateur epidemiologist to debate some antivaxxers online. From what I understand, you deal with epidemics two ways:

1) Containment -- limit infection vectors, block infected people from getting in and/or quarantine them. Then do massive tracing efforts to identify sources, as well as step up surveillance to detect other possible incoming vectors. This is called "early detection" (duh).

US was way too late in doing this, mainly due to Trump's refusal to lock down the borders which could have been done as early as January, and lack of testing (CDC can't get the right kits out on time, and refusal to license existing kits from Asia)

Taiwan, on the other hand, escaped relatively unscathed despite proximity to China. You can do your own research on why. There's a paper about it.

2) Once containment failed, the only thing to do is known as "control and mitigation", Social Distancing is basically a control-and-mitigation tactic, trying to slow the spread. Medical system brace for the worst by calling up reserve personnel and stage equipment (such as all the rush for ventilators and masks). Public fear and emergency measures such as "shelter in place" will be implemented to "carrot and stick' the public into compliance.

Hopefully, after a while, we can conclude that the disease is eliminated (which just means "it's no longer a major public health issue").

NOTE: This is different from "eradicated". Despite hundreds of years of medical science, we've only managed to eradicate smallpox. EVERYTHING ELSE is still with us.

I think the fundamental attitude of the US population is simply not ready for COVID-19, and the Trump Whitehouse attitude simply made things worse. US is NOT ready for a massive "tracking" effort of COVID-19 cases in January, all the blab about "privacy" notwithstanding. But Trump tweeting /talking that it's nothing to worry about in January? Criminal. We had MONTHS of advance warning. A good chunk of this shelter-in-place may have been avoided had we done something earlier.

I've completed both undergraduate and graduate level courses in epidemiology. I helped write and teach an epidemiology refresher course for people working in public health in NJ. I have worked on actual disease outbreaks, following CDC protocol for investigation to try and figure out what happened. I would rather slam my testicles in a drawer repeatedly than debate, discuss or try to communicate anything public health related to the anti-vaccination community.

Thankfully you don't have to. You have Kasey.

Victoria Raverna wrote: Sun Apr 12, 2020 8:17 am

gbasden wrote: Sun Apr 12, 2020 4:29 am

Zaxxon wrote: Fri Apr 10, 2020 7:18 pm

YellowKing wrote:A group of friends and I just had a virtual happy hour over Zoom where everybody brought a beer. It was a ton of fun just getting to hang out and chat for a couple of hours. We're really fortunate we have the technology to still be able to socialize in an environment where we shouldn't be able to socialize.

It really does help. My extended family and my workplace are both also using Zoom for happy hours.

For sure. I was thinking about how awful this would have been when I was a child, with very primitive computers, no internet and no game console in my house. I would have been bouncing off the walls.

My daughter cried when my home lost internet connection for 2 hours and she is only 5. It is almost a month now since she stopped going to school.

The last time Ethan was in school was Jan 30th. He is in a year round school. He missed the last day of school for being sick. 3 weeks later was admitted to the hospital for almost 3 weeks. The friday before he was discharged schools were cancelled, and next monday he starts distance learning for a month. He hasn't seen his friends since January...

Smoove_B wrote: Sun Apr 12, 2020 5:23 pm I've completed both undergraduate and graduate level courses in epidemiology. I helped write and teach an epidemiology refresher course for people working in public health in NJ. I have worked on actual disease outbreaks, following CDC protocol for investigation to try and figure out what happened. I would rather slam my testicles in a drawer repeatedly than debate, discuss or try to communicate anything public health related to the anti-vaccination community.

"Epidemiologist declares smashing testicles 'key breakthrough' in fight against COVID-19"

Kasey Chang wrote: Sun Apr 12, 2020 4:52 pm I had to become an amateur epidemiologist to debate some antivaxxers online. From what I understand, you deal with epidemics two ways:

1) Containment -- limit infection vectors, block infected people from getting in and/or quarantine them. Then do massive tracing efforts to identify sources, as well as step up surveillance to detect other possible incoming vectors. This is called "early detection" (duh).

US was way too late in doing this, mainly due to Trump's refusal to lock down the borders which could have been done as early as January, and lack of testing (CDC can't get the right kits out on time, and refusal to license existing kits from Asia)

Taiwan, on the other hand, escaped relatively unscathed despite proximity to China. You can do your own research on why. There's a paper about it.

2) Once containment failed, the only thing to do is known as "control and mitigation", Social Distancing is basically a control-and-mitigation tactic, trying to slow the spread. Medical system brace for the worst by calling up reserve personnel and stage equipment (such as all the rush for ventilators and masks). Public fear and emergency measures such as "shelter in place" will be implemented to "carrot and stick' the public into compliance.

Hopefully, after a while, we can conclude that the disease is eliminated (which just means "it's no longer a major public health issue").

NOTE: This is different from "eradicated". Despite hundreds of years of medical science, we've only managed to eradicate smallpox. EVERYTHING ELSE is still with us.

I think the fundamental attitude of the US population is simply not ready for COVID-19, and the Trump Whitehouse attitude simply made things worse. US is NOT ready for a massive "tracking" effort of COVID-19 cases in January, all the blab about "privacy" notwithstanding. But Trump tweeting /talking that it's nothing to worry about in January? Criminal. We had MONTHS of advance warning. A good chunk of this shelter-in-place may have been avoided had we done something earlier.

So what's this long-term plan then? Is it just false hope?

from the article wrote:Instead, a collection of governors, former government officials, disease specialists and nonprofits are pursuing a strategy that relies on the three pillars of disease control: Ramp up testing to identify people who are infected. Find everyone they interact with by deploying contact tracing on a scale America has never attempted before. And focus restrictions more narrowly on the infected and their contacts so the rest of society doesn’t have to stay in permanent lockdown.

wonderpug wrote: Sun Apr 12, 2020 8:18 pm "Epidemiologist declares smashing testicles 'key breakthrough' in fight against COVID-19"

Wonder how many times we have to repeat this line for the bots to pick it up and suddenly people will see it and it will eventually be a "news" article someplace?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ation.html

A 42-year-old man tested positive for the coronavirus - after going to hospital with testicular pain, doctors have revealed.

I think the 'test and isolate' method requires resources I didn't realize we had. You need to be able to test millions of people and it needs to be done fast enough so that the test results aren't outdated by the time they are processed. You need places to quarantine the sick, with food/water/toilets OR the ability to force them to stay in their homes. You need people who are willing to go into areas to do testing when the people in those areas might be sick, angry, broke, desperate, and unfriendly to authority figures. Some of the population is armed, just thought I'd mention that.

gbasden wrote: Sun Apr 12, 2020 4:29 am For sure. I was thinking about how awful this would have been when I was a child, with very primitive computers, no internet and no game console in my house. I would have been bouncing off the walls.

I didn't have expectations of those things when I was a child. There was a period in upper elementary school where it would have been tough but after about age 12 it would have been fine as I would have just read anything I could get my hands on (and my parents were readers so we had books), played games, or invented worlds for D&D (I doubt that my brother and I would have played much with just the two of us but we would have talked about it forever).

Apparently the powers that be decided that I qualify for a one-time $100 GST rebate under the Canadian federal COVID-19 economic stimulus package. It was automagically deposited in my bank account on Thursday.

Madmarcus wrote: Sun Apr 12, 2020 11:26 pm

gbasden wrote: Sun Apr 12, 2020 4:29 am For sure. I was thinking about how awful this would have been when I was a child, with very primitive computers, no internet and no game console in my house. I would have been bouncing off the walls.

I didn't have expectations of those things when I was a child. There was a period in upper elementary school where it would have been tough but after about age 12 it would have been fine as I would have just read anything I could get my hands on (and my parents were readers so we had books), played games, or invented worlds for D&D (I doubt that my brother and I would have played much with just the two of us but we would have talked about it forever).

When I was a kid there was no cable tv, there was pay tv(ON and Select). The Atari and Intellivision consoles were what we had. One landline, three different phones throughout the house but all hooked to the same line. Even so I think the stress would have come from my dad. Assuming his work was shut down, having him around all day probably would not have made my mom happy. He also liked to spend time with his friends, which would have been impossible for him since his favorite places would be shut down. He liked to drink with his friends, I have no idea if he would have drank by himself at home but if he tried it I think things would have boiled over since I don't think my mom would have gone for that. He would have stressed out by the first weekend.

The fun would have come from our next door neighbor. He was self appointed neighborhood watch, before that was a thing. He was the equivalent of today's sovereign citizen/militia/conspiracy theorist type. He would have had A LOT to say about this virus. My parents wouldn't have allowed him to step into our yard but he would have stood out in his front yard all day yelling to people his thoughts on the virus, since that's what he did back then on other topics. The longer this virus lockdown would have gone on, the nuttier he would have got. Who knows when he would just totally lose it? I'd had given him a month, tops.

I'd have been fine. I spent most of my time in the house or our immediate yard growing up anyway. Socializing for me was so rare that I didn't depend on it for distraction, so I was very adept at finding my own fun. Reading, imagination, painting, building models, playing by myself, watching TV, and more reading. That was my childhood, and none of it required going anywhere or being with anyone. My teen years varied that a bit - more hobbies, more reading, less play and TV, plus some cross-country hiking and exploring. The only thing that would have really impacted me would have been the inability to pick things up to support my hobbies (craft materials, model kits, etc.)

That remains true today. Were it not for shopping, I could easily go years without leaving the house and not bat an eyelash. Not that I don't enjoy getting out, but it isn't something I require to be content.

Madmarcus wrote: Sun Apr 12, 2020 11:26 pm

gbasden wrote: Sun Apr 12, 2020 4:29 am For sure. I was thinking about how awful this would have been when I was a child, with very primitive computers, no internet and no game console in my house. I would have been bouncing off the walls.

I didn't have expectations of those things when I was a child. There was a period in upper elementary school where it would have been tough but after about age 12 it would have been fine as I would have just read anything I could get my hands on (and my parents were readers so we had books), played games, or invented worlds for D&D (I doubt that my brother and I would have played much with just the two of us but we would have talked about it forever).

I didn't have those expectations either, but I was almost always over at a friends house, had a friend over, or was out having dirtclod wars in the desert. I love reading, but it would have been that and TV, and we only had 3 channels. And my sister was four years younger and we had nothing in common.

Up here in backwoods Maine, I feel like we're in an insulated bubble. I see the rest of the world, read the reports of our government fighting states for supplies (and winning), hear the horror of places like New York, and the idiocy of the south's response... and I feel relieved to be where I am... for the first time in a long time, it feels like an advantage. It's hard to process what's happening in the rest of the world.

Maine has one of the lower infection rates (detected) in the country. We're still under 650 confirmed cases, 19 deaths, and 6,700 people tested. Our concentrations of spread are in the most populated areas. The real rural places, like where I live, have single digit confirmed cases - and have for two weeks. The county I live in has 34,000 people - and 9 confirmed cases. A week ago that number was 8.

Despite our relatively low infection numbers, people are taking this seriously. The few times I've had to go out, maybe 40% of people are wearing masks or gloves. Everyone is keeping their distance. Stores are wiping down terminals between customers. Lanes in grocery stores are set up for one-way traffic through the whole store.

I worry for my mother, who lives in Portland and is still working. All of her siblings (except one) in the state are in high-risk categories with serious pre-existing conditions. I worry for the folks here who post stories and concerns about themselves and their loved ones.

Personally, the virus has had little direct impact on our life so far. My wife and I never really had a social circle to lose. We're socially distant by default. She already worked from home 4 out of every 5 days and her employer just made it 5 out of 5 days weeks ago. The kids were pulled out of school a month ago as well and we've adjusted to home schooling. I was laid off two weeks ago, but got a call from my boss last night saying they had gotten the SBA PPP loan and they wanted me to come back on payroll, at least for a few weeks, while things continue to play out. So I'm back at my desk in my little isolated corner office.

Last week we lost power for 50+ hours thanks to a wet, heavy spring snow. I was thankful for the generator and double-thankful for the Switch Lites we had that only take 20V of juice to keep 4 people entertained while the lights were out. It was a surreal thing. Stuck at home because of a pandemic, unemployed, and without electricity - binge playing Animal Crossing with my wife.

My boss is saying things like "re-open by the end of April" but I know it can't be accurate. Without either herd immunity from massive exposure and recovery OR widespread vaccination, I think any attempt to return to normal just re-creates pandemic flow as people who are sick mingle with the healthy again and start the spread all over again. Because of the piecemeal, half-assed response in the US we won't be able to get this under control until we can vaccinate against it... so I'm not hopeful for a return to normal operations in 2 weeks, but I'll take the paychecks and stay off unemployment for as long as I can.

I hope you're all doing okay, and those you care about are healthy. I'm trying to catch up on 2 weeks of posts, but may miss something.

I'm the opposite in the thick of it in New Jersey. Yesterday we found out about another person who died (a former co-worker of my wife). He was a sweet older man (late 80s) who was a chemical engineer who essentially refused to retire. Apparently he wasn't taking it seriously and he, his wife and his son tested positive. The survivors are all in the ICU. Very sad. We have heard a lot about others and I've personally known 2 who were on ventilators at some time. I still feel that *way* *way* too many people don't take this seriously enough.

This weekend left me feeling like this is going to definitely be a long affair. I won't get into it but I saw a lot of foolishness. The weather was just too nice on Friday/Saturday/Sunday and as it gets better I think the situation will potentially get worse and regress. On the positive side, we've done a few video meet ups with our usual team mates/friends and played party games remotely. That was good for everyone since we had Easter traditions we couldn't keep. I'm in the last few weeks of my master's class so I am living at a keyboard programming/writing. Beyond a weekly or longer grocery store run I haven't felt the need to do anything yet.

Paingod wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 8:27 am
My boss is saying things like "re-open by the end of April" but I know it can't be accurate. Without either herd immunity from massive exposure and recovery OR widespread vaccination, I think any attempt to return to normal just re-creates pandemic flow as people who are sick mingle with the healthy again and start the spread all over again. Because of the piecemeal, half-assed response in the US we won't be able to get this under control until we can vaccinate against it... so I'm not hopeful for a return to normal operations in 2 weeks, but I'll take the paychecks and stay off unemployment for as long as I can.

There is a third possibility that could get us moving again sooner: A safe, effective treatment. There are currently 95 drugs in phase 1 clinical trials. The first results will start coming in by the end of April. Most of those candidates will get knocked out. Some will go on to bigger trials. There's a slim chance that one or more will emerge as clear winners. It's not something you want to bet the economy on, but it could happen.

While my life hasn't changed all that much -- I've been working at home for years, and I'm still getting assignments -- greater Boston has been severely disrupted, as I'm sure you've read. It's hard to imagine getting back to anything resembling normalcy before fall, at best.

raydude wrote: Sun Apr 12, 2020 9:26 pm

So what's this long-term plan then? Is it just false hope?

from the article wrote:Instead, a collection of governors, former government officials, disease specialists and nonprofits are pursuing a strategy that relies on the three pillars of disease control: Ramp up testing to identify people who are infected. Find everyone they interact with by deploying contact tracing on a scale America has never attempted before. And focus restrictions more narrowly on the infected and their contacts so the rest of society doesn’t have to stay in permanent lockdown.

The first thing to do is to get everybody who *can* be tested, well, tested. And track down the infected, so we can have the surveillance network working. We need to identify and shrink the population of "spreaders" who may be spreading COVID-19 unwittingly because they are asymptomatic. As we've learned, you can be asymptomatic for 2 weeks, and during which, you ARE basically Typhoid Mary. And the only way to find these spreaders is to test... or isolate everyone else and hope they basically identify THEMSELVES by falling sick.

But obviously, the problem is there are always a few rule-breakers. South Korea had a super-spreader who decided self-quarantine is for sissies and created like half-dozen infection clusters all by herself. Not sure if she'll be charged with a crime or something. And in the US, all the blah about rights and stuff means someone may just decide their right to have a good time trumps common sense.

Well this would be bad.

WHO officials say it’s unclear whether recovered coronavirus patients are immune to second infection

World Health Organization officials said not all people who recover from the coronavirus have the antibodies to fight a second infection. This raises concerns that patients don’t develop immunity after surviving Covid-19.

“With regards to recovery and then re-infection, I believe we do not have the answers to that. That is an unknown,” Dr. Mike Ryan, executive director of WHO’s emergencies program, said at a press conference at the organization’s Geneva headquarters on Monday.

A preliminary study of patients in Shanghai found that some patients had “no detectable antibody response” while others had a very high response, said Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO’s lead scientist on Covid-19. Whether the patients who had a strong antibody response were immune to a second infection is “a separate question,” she added.

Puts a vaccine in the spotlight, if 'herd immunity' is not likely to happen quicker.

Kraken wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 10:15 am

Paingod wrote: Mon Apr 13, 2020 8:27 am
My boss is saying things like "re-open by the end of April" but I know it can't be accurate. Without either herd immunity from massive exposure and recovery OR widespread vaccination, I think any attempt to return to normal just re-creates pandemic flow as people who are sick mingle with the healthy again and start the spread all over again. Because of the piecemeal, half-assed response in the US we won't be able to get this under control until we can vaccinate against it... so I'm not hopeful for a return to normal operations in 2 weeks, but I'll take the paychecks and stay off unemployment for as long as I can.

There is a third possibility that could get us moving again sooner: A safe, effective treatment.

One thing I think might allow us to re-open for business, and I think is also something reasonably possible, is that the capacity of hospitals to handle a larger patient load is increased enough to make everyone confident that surges in cases aren't a deal breaker. A place like NYC is probably too populated for that to work, but what about other areas of the country? I can foresee a time when state governors announce that their state is prepared to handle X thousands of cases and let's get started on rebuilding the economy. I think that's likelier to happen sooner than developing a vaccine or herd immunity.

Encouraging people to go back to work where death is on the spectrum of outcomes - even with a fully functioning hospital system - is ethically questionable.