Octopus Overlords

Zaxxon wrote: Tue May 05, 2020 11:54 am

Blackhawk wrote: Tue May 05, 2020 11:51 am INAS (I'm not a Smoove), but the scary thing to me about the idea of reinfection is all the reports that COVID-19 can cause lasting organ damage. That brings up the possibility that a second infection could be far worse for some people, as it would be attacking already weakened organs.

Uhhuh. That, and the strokes.

Unagi wrote: Tue May 05, 2020 10:26 am So what happened to yesterday’s news (here) that it is not mutating as far as we know?

I mean , this sounds like it’s plain as day.

Daehawk wrote: Tue May 05, 2020 12:08 pm
Also with stuff opening up they say people are 'encouraged' to wear masks. What good does that do? Why isn't mask wearing enforced and required for at least another month after opening? This baby patting stuff isn't going to help anything.

Ralph-Wiggum wrote: Tue May 05, 2020 12:07 pmAs for BioRx, certainly any not-yet peer reviewed study needs to be taken with a grain of salt. That said, I would personally be more inclined to trust early research based on genetic sequence data as that stuff can be harder to mess up or misinterpret, assuming they are following the general protocols for analyzing gene sequences.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue May 05, 2020 12:13 pm

Daehawk wrote: Tue May 05, 2020 12:08 pm
Also with stuff opening up they say people are 'encouraged' to wear masks. What good does that do? Why isn't mask wearing enforced and required for at least another month after opening? This baby patting stuff isn't going to help anything.

Because there is no federal leadership so States, counties, towns, municipalities, and individual businesses all have their own rules based on whatever they feel like.

Unagi wrote: Tue May 05, 2020 10:59 am And if they don’t, then I personally am not as worried about it being a ‘new strain’

This LATimes article is INFURIATING. So much misinformation based on just that preprint. They took quotes from the author's PERSONAL FACEBOOK PAGE. An anonymous quote that this is 'classic Darwinian evolution.' Commentary on viral load and pathogenesis from a toxicologist.

This preprint has been getting attention. It claims that the SARS-CoV-2 virus is mutating into a more transmissible form as the pandemic wears on. I think those claims are suspect, to say the least

Smoove_B wrote: Tue May 05, 2020 12:25 pm More perspective from Harvard Public Health Professor:

https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1 ... 6436613126

This preprint has been getting attention. It claims that the SARS-CoV-2 virus is mutating into a more transmissible form as the pandemic wears on. I think those claims are suspect, to say the least

When we embarked on our SARS-CoV-2 analysis pipeline, our motivation was to identify mutations that might be of potential concern in the SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein as an early warning system for consideration as vaccine studies progress; we did not anticipate such dramatic results so early in the pandemic. In a setting of very low genetic diversity, traditional means of identification of positive selection have limited statistical power, but the incredibly rich GISAID data set provides an opportunity to look more deeply into the evolutionary relationships among the SARS-CoV-2 sequences in the context of time and geography. This approach revealed that viruses bearing the mutation Spike D614G are replacing the original Wuhan form of the virus rapidly and repeatedly across the globe (Fig. 2-3). We do not know what is driving this selective sweep, nor for that matter if it is indeed due the modified Spike and not one of the other two accompanying mutations that share the GISAID “G-clade” haplotype. The Spike D614G change, however, is consistent with several hypotheses regarding a fitness advantage that can be explored experimentally. D614 is embedded in an immunodominant antibody epitope, recognized by antibodies isolated from recovered individuals who were infected with the original SARS-CoV; this epitope is also targeted by vaccination in primate models (Wang et al., 2016). Thus, this mutation might be conferring resistance to protective D614-directed antibody responses in infected people, making them more susceptible to reinfection with the newer G614 form of the virus. Alternatively, the advantage might be related to the fact that D614 is embedded in an immunodominant ADE epitope of SARS-CoV (Wang et al., 2016), and perhaps the G614 form can facilitate ADE. Finally, the D614G mutation is predicted to destabilize inter-protomer S1-S2 subunit interactions in the trimer, and this may have direct consequences for the infectivity of the virus (Fig. 4). Increased infectivity would be consistent with rapid spread, and also the association of higher viral load with G614 that we observed in the clinical data from Sheffield, England (Fig. 5).

Each of the ways we anticipated we might find evidence of positive selection in Spike are being manifested among subset of the sites that are accruing mutations. While the D616G mutation is the only one that is dramatically increasing in frequency globally (Fig. 2-3), the L8V mutation may be on the rise in the local epidemic in Hong Kong (Fig. S7). To date, mutations are extremely rare in the Spike RBD, but the mutation G476S is directly in an ACE2 contact residue. The mutation L5F occurs in many geographic regions in many distinct clades, suggesting it repeatedly arose independently, and was selected to the extent that was frequent enough to be resampled. Finally, the mutation S943P seems to have been transferred by recombination into diverse viral backbones that are co-circulating in Belgium (Fig. 6); we also found strong evidence of recombination in other regional sample sets (Fig. S8). Recombination among pandemic SARS-CoV-2 strains is not surprising, given that it is also found among more distant coronaviruses with higher diversity levels (Graham and Baric, 2010; Li et al., 2020; Rehman et al., 2020). Still, it has important implications. First, recombination cannot be detected without simultaneous coinfection of distinct viruses in one host. It is not clear if such co-infections might be happening prior to the adaptive immune response, or in series with reinfection occurring after the initial infection stimulated a response. Recombination may be more common in communities with less rigorous shelter-in-place and social distancing practices, in hospital wards with less stringent patient isolation because all patients are assumed to already be infected or in geographic, or in regions where antigenic drift has already begun to enable serial infection with more resistant forms of the viruses. Also, recombination provides an opportunity for the virus to bring together, into a single recombinant virus, multiple mutations that independently confer distinct fitness advantages but that were carried separately in the two parental strains.

Tracking mutations in Spike has been our primary focus to date because of the urgency with which vaccine and antibody therapy strategies are being developed; the interventions under development now cannot afford to miss their contemporary targets when they are eventually deployed. To this end, we built a data-analysis pipeline to explore the potential impact of mutations on SARS-CoV-2 sequences. The analysis is performed as the data becomes available through GISAID. Experimentalists can make use of the most current data available to best inform vaccine constructs, reagent tests, and experimental design. While the GISAID data used for the figures in this paper was frozen at April 13, 2020, many of the key figures included here are rebuilt each day based on the newly available GISAID data. While our initial focus is on Spike, the tools we have developed can be extended to other proteins and mutations in subsequent versions of the pipeline. Meanwhile understanding both how the D614G mutation is overtaking the pandemic and how recombination is impacting the evolution of the virus will be important for informing choices about how best to respond in order to control epidemic spread and resurgence.

Isgrimnur wrote: Tue May 05, 2020 12:23 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue May 05, 2020 12:13 pm

Daehawk wrote: Tue May 05, 2020 12:08 pm
Also with stuff opening up they say people are 'encouraged' to wear masks. What good does that do? Why isn't mask wearing enforced and required for at least another month after opening? This baby patting stuff isn't going to help anything.

Because there is no federal leadership so States, counties, towns, municipalities, and individual businesses all have their own rules based on whatever they feel like.

And actual force of law leads to protests and people getting shot for trying to enforce it.

Isgrimnur wrote: Tue May 05, 2020 12:23 pm And actual force of law leads to protests and people getting shot for trying to enforce it.

LordMortis wrote: Tue May 05, 2020 1:28 pm

Isgrimnur wrote: Tue May 05, 2020 12:23 pm And actual force of law leads to protests and people getting shot for trying to enforce it.

Very good people murdering security guards in an act of terror simply for enforcing store safety policy.

The coronavirus response being spearheaded by President Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, has relied in part on volunteers from consulting and private equity firms with little expertise in the tasks to which they were assigned, exacerbating chronic problems in obtaining supplies for hospitals and other needs, according to numerous government officials and a volunteer involved in the effort.

About two dozen employees from Boston Consulting Group, Insight, McKinsey and other firms have volunteered their time — some on paid vacation leave from their jobs and others without pay — to aid the Trump administration’s response to the coronavirus pandemic, according to administration officials and others familiar with the arrangement.

Although some of the volunteers have relevant backgrounds and experience, many others were poorly matched with the jobs they were assigned, including those given the task of securing personal protective equipment, or PPE, for hospitals nationwide, according to a complaint filed last month with the House Oversight Committee.

The complaint, obtained by The Washington Post, was submitted by a volunteer who has since left the group and who spoke on the condition of anonymity for fear of retribution from the administration. Key elements of the complaint were confirmed by six administration officials and one outside adviser to the effort, many of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.

A spokeswoman for the oversight panel declined to comment.

The document alleges that the team responsible for PPE had little success in helping the government secure such equipment, in part because none of the team’s members had significant experience in health care, procurement or supply-chain operations. In addition, none of the volunteers had existing relationships with manufacturers or a clear understanding of customs requirements or Food and Drug Administration rules, according to the complaint and two senior administration officials.

Smoove_B wrote: Tue May 05, 2020 4:24 pm My new theory is that Trump believes if he can get the economy running on all cylinders, everyone is going to magically forget about all the people dying and he'll be re-elected in a landslide.

Holman wrote: Tue May 05, 2020 5:14 pm Gonna be hard to run an economy on all cylinders when workers called back to the floor are the ones dying.

Smoove_B wrote: Tue May 05, 2020 4:24 pm My new theory is that Trump believes if he can get the economy running on all cylinders, everyone is going to magically forget about all the people dying and he'll be re-elected in a landslide.

gameoverman wrote: Tue May 05, 2020 5:42 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Tue May 05, 2020 4:24 pm My new theory is that Trump believes if he can get the economy running on all cylinders, everyone is going to magically forget about all the people dying and he'll be re-elected in a landslide.

The scary thing, to me, is I don't think he needs the economy running on all cylinders and if it does start running then he might win re-election. I'd say he needs 3 or 4 out of the 8 cylinders firing, then during the last part of the campaign he promotes the idea that the engine is firing up and we can't stop now. "Stop" meaning change Presidents which would mean policy changes.

People, having lived through the shutdown, might be scared enough of losing what ground has been gained that they'll vote for him.

malchior wrote: Tue May 05, 2020 3:19 pm Washington Post

The coronavirus response being spearheaded by President Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, has relied in part on volunteers from consulting and private equity firms with little expertise in the tasks to which they were assigned, exacerbating chronic problems in obtaining supplies for hospitals and other needs, according to numerous government officials and a volunteer involved in the effort.

About two dozen employees from Boston Consulting Group, Insight, McKinsey and other firms have volunteered their time — some on paid vacation leave from their jobs and others without pay — to aid the Trump administration’s response to the coronavirus pandemic, according to administration officials and others familiar with the arrangement.

Although some of the volunteers have relevant backgrounds and experience, many others were poorly matched with the jobs they were assigned, including those given the task of securing personal protective equipment, or PPE, for hospitals nationwide, according to a complaint filed last month with the House Oversight Committee.

The complaint, obtained by The Washington Post, was submitted by a volunteer who has since left the group and who spoke on the condition of anonymity for fear of retribution from the administration. Key elements of the complaint were confirmed by six administration officials and one outside adviser to the effort, many of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.

A spokeswoman for the oversight panel declined to comment.

The document alleges that the team responsible for PPE had little success in helping the government secure such equipment, in part because none of the team’s members had significant experience in health care, procurement or supply-chain operations. In addition, none of the volunteers had existing relationships with manufacturers or a clear understanding of customs requirements or Food and Drug Administration rules, according to the complaint and two senior administration officials.

gameoverman wrote: Tue May 05, 2020 5:42 pm There won't be enough time to restart everything before November so the economy will be dead in the water as people vote.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue May 05, 2020 5:50 pm

gameoverman wrote: Tue May 05, 2020 5:42 pm There won't be enough time to restart everything before November so the economy will be dead in the water as people vote.

That's optimistic.

My guess is that if the economy is dead in the water come November there won't be much voting.

Holman wrote: Tue May 05, 2020 5:56 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue May 05, 2020 5:50 pm

gameoverman wrote: Tue May 05, 2020 5:42 pm There won't be enough time to restart everything before November so the economy will be dead in the water as people vote.

That's optimistic.

My guess is that if the economy is dead in the water come November there won't be much voting.

People voted in 1932. FDR won 42 of 48 states.

There will be shenanigans, sure, but I still think we can pull this off, and anger motivates people way more than contentment does.

Octavious wrote: Tue May 05, 2020 4:45 pm It's really his only shot right now and he certainly doesn't care if people die.

gameoverman wrote: Tue May 05, 2020 5:42 pm What could ruin it for him is if May/June sees states opening up, and by August the virus is raging through the country again so much that states have to start shutting down again. There won't be enough time to restart everything before November so the economy will be dead in the water as people vote.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue May 05, 2020 6:04 pm Trump could win with 40%.


The Trump Administration is not the Hoover administration. I'm not talking about lack of motivation. I'm taking about polls being shut down, executive orders, etc. Maybe even a December or January election. Who knows.

You can see this coming into focus. The WH is betting that more rural redder states won't ever get hit like the northeast. Shutdown the taskforce and deny ownership of the epidemic. Demand ransom of federal dollars and ICE compliance as the price of aid to devastated states.

2/ Trump's terms are pretty clear. Blue states must comply with ICE demands; Social Security and Medicare must be defunded and no more taxes on investment income in return for allowing COVID hit states to keep functioning.

3/ That's the logical conclusion of the GOP running the country with a minority of voters disproportionally in rural states who are able to control the country because of the electoral college and geography. Run the country while being funded by blue state taxes.

4/ We always need to remember that there are tons of blue voters in Kentucky. Tons of red voters in California. But basically what this amounts to is monopolize national political power with smaller red states, subsidize those states with surpluses generated in blue metroplexes.

Good luck. You're on your own.

Smoove_B wrote: Tue May 05, 2020 7:35 pm https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1257749698603102208

You can see this coming into focus. The WH is betting that more rural redder states won't ever get hit like the northeast. Shutdown the taskforce and deny ownership of the epidemic. Demand ransom of federal dollars and ICE compliance as the price of aid to devastated states.

2/ Trump's terms are pretty clear. Blue states must comply with ICE demands; Social Security and Medicare must be defunded and no more taxes on investment income in return for allowing COVID hit states to keep functioning.

3/ That's the logical conclusion of the GOP running the country with a minority of voters disproportionally in rural states who are able to control the country because of the electoral college and geography. Run the country while being funded by blue state taxes.

4/ We always need to remember that there are tons of blue voters in Kentucky. Tons of red voters in California. But basically what this amounts to is monopolize national political power with smaller red states, subsidize those states with surpluses generated in blue metroplexes.

They blasted “Live and Let Die” while Trump walked around a Honeywell plant today in Arizona without a mask. It’s hard to believe this clip is real.

Smoove_B wrote: Tue May 05, 2020 7:35 pm https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1257749698603102208

You can see this coming into focus. The WH is betting that more rural redder states won't ever get hit like the northeast. Shutdown the taskforce and deny ownership of the epidemic. Demand ransom of federal dollars and ICE compliance as the price of aid to devastated states.

2/ Trump's terms are pretty clear. Blue states must comply with ICE demands; Social Security and Medicare must be defunded and no more taxes on investment income in return for allowing COVID hit states to keep functioning.

3/ That's the logical conclusion of the GOP running the country with a minority of voters disproportionally in rural states who are able to control the country because of the electoral college and geography. Run the country while being funded by blue state taxes.

4/ We always need to remember that there are tons of blue voters in Kentucky. Tons of red voters in California. But basically what this amounts to is monopolize national political power with smaller red states, subsidize those states with surpluses generated in blue metroplexes.

Holman wrote: Tue May 05, 2020 5:14 pm Gonna be hard to run an economy on all cylinders when workers called back to the floor are the ones dying.

Skinypupy wrote: Tue May 05, 2020 8:57 pm
And unless there is a massive death toll across rural areas (which I’m guessing we see in hot spots, but not widespread), this strategy will most likely work.