Octopus Overlords

Carpet_pissr wrote: Wed Jul 12, 2023 3:24 pm Rivian up 90% over the last month - anybody still holding? I know several of you bought the IPO or soon after?

I’ve been holding all the way down. I figured it was a multi year play anyway, so the massive drop down to the $12 mark didn’t phase me too badly.

STILL down about 50% from where I bought even with recent gains.

Amazon has a plan to deploy 100,000 electric vans to its delivery fleet by 2030. At the rate it's going, that might happen a little sooner. On Thursday, it announced that it now has 10,000 Rivian electric delivery vans in service—up from 5,000 earlier this July.

Rivian's big order from Amazon was placed in 2019 as part of the online retailer and web service provider's plan to become carbon-neutral by 2040. Earlier that year, Amazon was an investor in a $700 million financing round for the EV startup, which makes electric SUVs and pickup trucks in addition to the Amazon electric delivery vans.

At the time, Jeff Bezos wanted all 100,000 Rivian vans on the road by 2024, but even before the coronavirus pandemic landed in March 2020, that had been revised to 2030. The first Rivian EDVs went into service in 2021.

LordMortis wrote: Mon Nov 06, 2023 7:43 am Just migrated to Schwab from TD and I hate the UI. When TD bought Scottrade it took some getting used to, but Schwabs web interface isn't intuitive. So far it's not customizable and organizable like TD was. So far, I'm not happy at all.

Carpet_pissr wrote: Tue Nov 07, 2023 12:12 am I also liked TDA’s platform, both web and app. Had many accounts there, as well as managing a couple of my Mom’s which were there.

Schwab’s not bad IMO, but I moved almost all accounts to Fidelity right after they announced the merger. I left one of my kids’ old Coverdell accounts there so I could use Schwab’s research tools since they’re a bit different than Fidelity’s.

I think a lot of it is simply familiarity. I liked TDA so much bc I knew exactly where everything was, every possible option, etc.

LordMortis wrote: Tue Nov 07, 2023 7:52 am

Carpet_pissr wrote: Tue Nov 07, 2023 12:12 am I also liked TDA’s platform, both web and app. Had many accounts there, as well as managing a couple of my Mom’s which were there.

Schwab’s not bad IMO, but I moved almost all accounts to Fidelity right after they announced the merger. I left one of my kids’ old Coverdell accounts there so I could use Schwab’s research tools since they’re a bit different than Fidelity’s.

I think a lot of it is simply familiarity. I liked TDA so much bc I knew exactly where everything was, every possible option, etc.

After playing with it yesterday, I managed to get most of the stuff done I wanted to. It's not friendly at all and most of the stuff I did with one click or could see all at a glance is simply not in TD in Scwab. It's four clicks deep on separate screens with accounts combined and options having to be set as again and again as I go back and forth. My TD web UI was also customizable, so it was already fairly easy and friendly and then I made it perfect in one screen. One account at a time, one screen for portfolio with all info I wanted to see on or hovering over it, one click off shoots to review options, trades, history, CDs, and Gains exactly how I wanted to review each. I will adapt... or move... I even tried Think or Swim but it's just too busy and again I have to try and find what I'm looking for. Also my gains and trade history either hasn't carried over (yet?) or is buried somewhere other than the Schwab gains or history.

I'm guessing most people use Think or Swim and it appears to be the same. But I didn't...

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Nov 08, 2023 11:11 am They still haven't moved me yet. I have 4 accounts on TD so I'm bit sure how they decide. 1 IRA, 2 cash, 1 Roth.

I have a Fidelity account and it's fine but TDA has been better. Think or Swim is great.

LordMortis wrote: Wed Nov 08, 2023 11:23 am

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Nov 08, 2023 11:11 am They still haven't moved me yet. I have 4 accounts on TD so I'm bit sure how they decide. 1 IRA, 2 cash, 1 Roth.

I have a Fidelity account and it's fine but TDA has been better. Think or Swim is great.

As far as I can tell, if Think or Swim is what you use, you'll be happy. I use the web UI. It's horrid. Just horrid. Functionally, I can do everything but look at what TD kept records of. Ease of use, everything was everything at a glance with a single click. Now it's navigating menus back and forth with limited sorting and no customization.

Example, In TD, my holdings page had all my options that I could easily sort by expiration date, that had high and low bids, what I paid, how much the actual stock is going for, ITM or OTM, projected gain and loss all on one page, easy to read. I could single click to work with those options which gave me a full read of the entire option chain and then decide if I want to make changes while surveying my entire portfolio in a digestible fashion. I could single click to get a to detailed page with another click to find out any minutia of the holding. Now I have to figure out how to navigate to four different pages and my sort is limited.

Carpet_pissr wrote: Wed Nov 08, 2023 11:32 am OK, this explains our different opinions of Schwab. I don't actively trade very much, or use options, etc. like you do. My comments were made based on usage for a buy/hold portfolio of funds and (long) stocks.

Warner Bros. Discovery China is launching reality TV show “Glow Up China” in mainland China later this month.

Delving into the universe and talents of Chinese make-up artists, the series will launch on leading streaming platform Tencent Video in December at a yet-to-be-specified date.

The 6×60 minute show is a Warner Bros. International Television Production (WBITVP) format based on a Wall to Wall production for the BBC.

This is the seventh international adaptation of the format and is structured as a partnership between Warner Bros. Discovery, Tencent Video and cosmetics brand Perfect Diary. Warner Bros. Discovery will distribute the show internationally.

“We’re at a very hard time that requires hard decisions, and many of them are unpopular,” Warner Bros Discovery CEO David Zaslav said in reviewing the trajectory of a company that has slashed staff and shelved content in an landscape that’s completely transformed from when the Discovery-Warner Media merger was announced in 2021.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Mon Dec 04, 2023 7:39 pm A few months ago my dad wanted to buy gold and silver. I asked why and he said he thought they would be a decent investment over the next few years. He had a lot in CDs and wanted something else. I told him to avoid physical due to premiums but otherwise, sounded like a solid plan. Ended up in GLD and SIVR but I also said to put a third in GBTC. Boom.

Carpet_pissr wrote: Tue Dec 05, 2023 12:18 pm LEGO

15-18% annual return if you just buy at retail and hold IIRC. If you even moderately try to buy stuff on sale...boom.
Has outperformed gold for many years now.

Of course the inventory and sales process is a much bigger pain than gold.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Dec 05, 2023 1:54 pm As of today, GLD and SIVR are up about 5% from purchase a month ago. Which is great since the alternative was a 12 month 5% CD.

GBTC is up 32%.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Dec 05, 2023 1:51 pm Yeah, storage and transacting eat up a lot of that.

I do have a friend who is single with no kids and a lot of room who buys at least one of every major release and shelves it.


I have a Harry Potter set I bought at CompUSA 20 years ago or so for $2. It was a high as $150 at one point. I had several at one point but gave them out as gifts. And the kids opened a few. The best part is it's a small set (4701) so almost no storage space.

Carpet_pissr wrote: Tue Dec 05, 2023 8:48 pm
Paid $100 for a SW set, and it's selling now on eBay for $200...but...after selling costs (no idea how much eBay or a Lego site charges these days), I MIGHT get $80-$85? It kind of put things in perspective about the whole "Collect and sell LEGO sets for passive income!!" idea.

You would have to move a SIGNIFICANT volume to make a decent amount of money. Even if you get lucky, and even if you only buy at steep discounts (which limits how much you can buy). Then you have to consider you're going to buy some sets that just don't age well, investing-wise. After doing some light research, it just didn't seem to make a lot of sense, as an investment.

Carpet_pissr wrote: Wed Dec 06, 2023 1:28 pm Someone tell me what to do about my little Rivian investing problem.

Only 200 shares or so, but down 68% from where I bought (irrelevant, but I still can't ignore that to my detriment). Up 9% today on comments by the CEO that they are greatly simplifying and reducing costs of their battery system, which will result in lower vehicle price tags. Also that they will be margin positive by 2024 (we'll see about that!).

This seems to be a much longer play than I was originally anticipating, which is fine, but I don't get a lot of warm fuzzies at their mid to longer term potential. Sure, they're building a new plant in Georgia, sure they will be launching a brand new product, but timelines have already been extended, deadlines missed, etc. Cash burn is starting to concern me (without doing a raise), and even consumer sentiment. I don't hear rave reviews about people who own or have owned Rivians (same for Ford Lightnings to be fair...quite the opposite).

And almost equally concerning, if not moreso, is the Amazon delivery truck deal, which is probably the biggest reason I bought in in the first place: that is gone after Rivian fulfilled I think only half the contract. Why? Did Amazon not like what they saw? Demand dropped? Vehicles sucked? No idea...but it concerns me.

Lots of holes that make me uneasy, and make me think "sell" but this is in an IRA, so I don't have tax consequences to consider on this.

Any thoughts appreciated. Lots of HOLD ratings on this from operations that have historically been pretty accurate on RIVN (Ford Equity Research, ironically, is one of the better ones here! )

Carpet_pissr wrote: Wed Dec 06, 2023 1:28 pm
And almost equally concerning, if not moreso, is the Amazon delivery truck deal, which is probably the biggest reason I bought in in the first place: that is gone after Rivian fulfilled I think only half the contract. Why? Did Amazon not like what they saw? Demand dropped? Vehicles sucked? No idea...but it concerns me.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2023 7:42 am

Carpet_pissr wrote: Wed Dec 06, 2023 1:28 pm
And almost equally concerning, if not moreso, is the Amazon delivery truck deal, which is probably the biggest reason I bought in in the first place: that is gone after Rivian fulfilled I think only half the contract. Why? Did Amazon not like what they saw? Demand dropped? Vehicles sucked? No idea...but it concerns me.

What happened here? Last I heard, they just ended the exclusivity agreement and RIVN can now sell fleet to other customers. I see a lot of the Amazon EV delivery trucks on the road here.

RIVN definitely has a long time horizon at this point. The odds are decent that you can find a better investment for the short to mid term. But then you have to go find it.

LordMortis wrote: Fri Dec 15, 2023 3:10 pm Good thing I'm not a betting man on the stock market (any more). I would have bet this triple witching was going to see a lot of short squeezing with the way the market has been up, with most tax lost harvesting complete, with the dove stance from Powell, and with "the Santa Claus" rally on the horizon. I would have been waaaay wrong.

LordMortis wrote: Fri Dec 15, 2023 3:10 pm Good thing I'm not a betting man on the stock market (any more). I would have bet this triple witching was going to see a lot of short squeezing with the way the market has been up, with most tax lost harvesting complete, with the dove stance from Powell, and with "the Santa Claus" rally on the horizon. I would have been waaaay wrong.

mori wrote: Fri Dec 15, 2023 10:41 pm Put 1K in Vinovest and let their algorithm choose the wine. So far I have a case of 2017 something . Another case of invest only what you can afford to lose. Will be interesting if this outperforms the stock market such as claimed. This should also be considered a long term investment at 10+ years before it is sold.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Sat Dec 16, 2023 11:39 am Liquidity seems to be an issue.

Isgrimnur wrote: Sat Dec 16, 2023 12:30 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: Sat Dec 16, 2023 11:39 am Liquidity seems to be an issue.