[Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

[Blackhawk]

A lesson taught in the harshest manner. She was young. She wanted attention. She got it.

[Kraken]

The failure to get tests out and back in to be processed is the fundamental failing in our response right now.

As it has been all along. Any jurisdiction that reopens its schools and/or businesses before widespread testing is in place is playing with fire.

[Blackhawk]

Anybody trying to open schools with only a few weeks left in the semester to achieve... something? when plans for elearning are already in place is going to be in for a nasty surprise.

[Paingod]

widespread testing

This means more than testing people once. This means being able to test as many people as needed repeatedly, at no cost, regardless of the reason.

Anybody trying to open schools with only a few weeks left in the semester to achieve... something? when plans for elearning are already in place is going to be in for a nasty surprise.

Maine's already called the school year done for in-class work. It's all homeschooling and eLearning. Our youngest is struggling more than the oldest. He's got a paper lesson plan and a couple random logins from teachers doing their own thing for the elementary level. We're doing 95% of his teaching based on those plans with almost no further direction from teachers. The older kid, just 3 grades ahead, has a full class schedule through eLearning with involved teachers upping the plan weekly and checking his work, communicating with us.

Needless to say, I expect the younger child to go back and have a very uneven experience in class as teachers try and assess where everyone is and (very likely) teach to the lowest percentiles with everyone else drumming their fingers and waiting for them to catch up.

[Blackhawk]

I figure a lot of schools are going to go into next year on the assumption that they have to teach an abbreviated version of the last half-semester first. I wouldn't be surprised to see standardized test requirements loosened next year as schools play catch-up, and if so it'll just be a slightly condensed year to get everyone back where they should be by the end.

[noxiousdog]

Gird your loins if you work for state, county, or city government...

Far worse to come: COVID-19 collapse of state and local governments

This is one of the dumbest articles I have ever read. It's like we've never had an economic crisis before.

Budgets aren't binary and they aren't restricted to time. There will be lots of borrowing; there will be lots of cancelled projects, there will be bankruptcies. But major governments aren't collapsing over this.

The concept is ludicrous.

[Anonymous Bosch]

Gird your loins if you work for state, county, or city government...

Far worse to come: COVID-19 collapse of state and local governments

This is one of the dumbest articles I have ever read. It's like we've never had an economic crisis before.

Budgets aren't binary and they aren't restricted to time. There will be lots of borrowing; there will be lots of cancelled projects, there will be bankruptcies. But major governments aren't collapsing over this.

The concept is ludicrous.

Well, as the OECD Sec-General put it:

Coronavirus crisis will burden economy for 'years to come,' OECD chief says

The coronavirus pandemic has triggered a "major economic crisis that will burden our societies for years to come," the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development's Secretary-General Angel Gurria warned.

In an op-ed published over the weekend calling for joint action "to win the war" against the pandemic, Gurria called the COVID-19 health crisis the "greatest economic, financial and social shock of the 21st Century."

His new statement reverses course from a handful of previous outlooks, which forecasted that the outbreak would cause only a temporary blow to the economy.

As the crisis wages on, Gurria added that the economy will likely not rebound as easily as previously thought.

"This shock brings a double whammy: a halt in production in affected countries, hitting supply chains across the world, and a steep drop in consumption together with a collapse in confidence," Gurria wrote. "Stringent measures being applied, albeit essential to contain the virus, are thrusting our economies into an unprecedented 'deep freeze' state, from which emergence will not be straightforward or automatic."

But FWIW, I certainly hope you're correct.

[LawBeefaroni]

"This shock brings a double whammy: a halt in production in affected countries, hitting supply chains across the world, and a steep drop in consumption together with a collapse in confidence," Gurria wrote.

I mean, isn't that a balanced shock? If consumption crashed but production soldiered on, or if consumption stayed the same but production cratered, there would be different but equally daunting issues.

[stessier]

Comic-Con was cancelled. Had to happen - and I've never been - but still sad.

[Zaxxon]

I am majorly bummed that I likely won't be able to road-trip to the first US launch of astronauts in many moons when it happens late next month.

[gameoverman]

Gird your loins if you work for state, county, or city government...

Far worse to come: COVID-19 collapse of state and local governments

This is one of the dumbest articles I have ever read. It's like we've never had an economic crisis before.

Budgets aren't binary and they aren't restricted to time. There will be lots of borrowing; there will be lots of cancelled projects, there will be bankruptcies. But major governments aren't collapsing over this.

The concept is ludicrous.

I don't see how the concept is ludicrous. Doesn't it make sense that at a time of sky high unemployment tax revenues will drop like a rock? These are the same tax revenues that these levels of government depend on. At a time when the people need the most aid from government, government has the least ability to provide that aid, and it's only going to get worse.

What I disagree with is his idea that slash and burn is the only solution. That's not a solution. That approach only benefits the ones at the top, it does nothing to 'save' the company. In the movie Margin Call there's a scene where Jeremy Irons' character proposes doing something unethical "so that WE may survive". That's what this guy's idea is about, sacrifice everyone else to save the ones in charge.

[noxiousdog]

Gird your loins if you work for state, county, or city government...

Far worse to come: COVID-19 collapse of state and local governments

This is one of the dumbest articles I have ever read. It's like we've never had an economic crisis before.

Budgets aren't binary and they aren't restricted to time. There will be lots of borrowing; there will be lots of cancelled projects, there will be bankruptcies. But major governments aren't collapsing over this.

The concept is ludicrous.

I don't see how the concept is ludicrous. Doesn't it make sense that at a time of sky high unemployment tax revenues will drop like a rock? These are the same tax revenues that these levels of government depend on. At a time when the people need the most aid from government, government has the least ability to provide that aid, and it's only going to get worse.

What I disagree with is his idea that slash and burn is the only solution. That's not a solution. That approach only benefits the ones at the top, it does nothing to 'save' the company. In the movie Margin Call there's a scene where Jeremy Irons' character proposes doing something unethical "so that WE may survive". That's what this guy's idea is about, sacrifice everyone else to save the ones in charge.

Yes, but it's temporary. We are in an era of historically low interest rates with nation states being able to leverage decades if not centuries into the future.

There's a far cry from, "Coronavirus crisis will burden economy for 'years to come,'" which is reasonable to "Many states, cities and counties are about to, suddenly, run out of money. Wages won’t be paid. Services won’t be delivered. Institutions will shut down abruptly. Many state colleges may fold. And yet most state and local political and administrative leaders just sit and watch."

If ONE state college failed, I'd be shocked; let alone many.

[dbt1949]

Our governor says the target date for opening the state up is May 5th. We never did have a lock down and the numbers are fairly low too.
We shall see.

[Jeff V]

Our governor says the target date for opening the state up is May 5th. We never did have a lock down and the numbers are fairly low too.
We shall see.

Cases in Arkansas up 74% in the past week. Yep, fine time for your governor to take the shackles off. He sure has it under control.

[dbt1949]

The article says 60% but we're still lower than most states of our population.


https://www.5newsonline.com/article/new ... 305302dd82

[The Meal]

Our governor says the target date for opening the state up is May 5th. We never did have a lock down and the numbers are fairly low too.
We shall see.

Tomorrow, tomorrow, I love ya tomorrow, you're always two weeks away...

[gameoverman]

The article says 60% but we're still lower than most states of our population.


https://www.5newsonline.com/article/new ... 305302dd82

The thing that would make me nervous about reopening the state, if I was in a state with fewer cases, is that you are in a prime position to prevent any larger surge in cases. You can stop it before it gets started. Reopening is almost like tempting fate, it's like saying "Infect us, I dare you!" to nature. That's a bold move to make when being wrong means people needlessly die.

[Kraken]

The article says 60% but we're still lower than most states of our population.


https://www.5newsonline.com/article/new ... 305302dd82

The thing that would make me nervous about reopening the state, if I was in a state with fewer cases, is that you are in a prime position to prevent any larger surge in cases. You can stop it before it gets started. Reopening is almost like tempting fate, it's like saying "Infect us, I dare you!" to nature. That's a bold move to make when being wrong means people needlessly die.

The guidelines (such as they are) say that you can't relax distancing until the rate of growth in new cases declines for at least two weeks, indicating that you're over the hump. AFAIK, that doesn't describe anyplace in the US...and without widespread testing, you can't be sure anyway. Maybe some jurisdictions will get lucky. More likely, they won't.

[Smoove_B]

The guidelines (such as they are) say that you can't relax distancing until the rate of growth in new cases declines for at least two weeks, indicating that you're over the hump. AFAIK, that doesn't describe anyplace in the US...and without widespread testing, you can't be sure anyway. Maybe some jurisdictions will get lucky. More likely, they won't.

To put this another way, we're still only doing private health, reactive testing. Tests that are being used to confirm what doctors suspect (a person has COVID-19). We haven't even started doing proactive public health testing - which is what needs to happen before a state can be open for business. "Widespread testing" isn't just about confirming what we already know. We need to get more proactive and engage in classic public health prevention. I do think that's being lost in the overall message.

[LawBeefaroni]

The article says 60% but we're still lower than most states of our population.


https://www.5newsonline.com/article/new ... 305302dd82

The thing that would make me nervous about reopening the state, if I was in a state with fewer cases, is that you are in a prime position to prevent any larger surge in cases. You can stop it before it gets started. Reopening is almost like tempting fate, it's like saying "Infect us, I dare you!" to nature. That's a bold move to make when being wrong means people needlessly die.

Whatcha gonna do? You gotta break a few eggs to make an omelette. The tree of prosperity must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of the poor and working class. Now get back out there and do economy!

[Kraken]

The guidelines (such as they are) say that you can't relax distancing until the rate of growth in new cases declines for at least two weeks, indicating that you're over the hump. AFAIK, that doesn't describe anyplace in the US...and without widespread testing, you can't be sure anyway. Maybe some jurisdictions will get lucky. More likely, they won't.

To put this another way, we're still only doing private health, reactive testing. Tests that are being used to confirm what doctors suspect (a person has COVID-19). We haven't even started doing proactive public health testing - which is what needs to happen before a state can be open for business. "Widespread testing" isn't just about confirming what we already know. We need to get more proactive and engage in classic public health prevention. I do think that's being lost in the overall message.

That, and the federal government threw up its hands and said testing is up to the states, so reports are going to be all over the map due to differing standards and methods. Since there's no central government, one hopes that the regional compacts will coordinate with one another so that half the country is following the same protocols.

[dbt1949]

I keep waiting to see how bad these third world countries are going to be hit when the virus hits them hard.
They'll lie like everybody else about deaths and cases I'm sure.

[gameoverman]

There seems to be a couple of prime reasons to lie about a disaster hitting your country. Number one would embarrassment, you don't want the world to know you just got hit hard enough to hurt you. Two would be you don't want your own people to blame you for the disaster.

In a third world country, meaning a poorer country, I don't think either of those necessarily apply. You're a third world country, what status do you have internationally even in the best of times? Plus, you can ask for help, it's kind of expected of you. This will allow you to point out to your people that you're trying to get help. That helps reduce the criticism coming your way. I think it's only the flaky third world leaders who'll try to be coy about it. They must know that the international community will be able to see what's going in their country no matter how hard they try to hide it.

[Kraken]

There's also the difficulty of counting accurately. In parts of the world, people are born, live their lives, and die without ever being documented or even having an address, much less health care. India estimates that 1/6 of its people live in slums. Do an image search on "slums in india" if that's news to you.

[dbt1949]

It's interesting to see how fast mother nature recuperates while humans suffer from the pandemic.

[em2nought]

I keep waiting to see how bad these third world countries are going to be hit when the virus hits them hard.
They'll lie like everybody else about deaths and cases I'm sure.

Hopefully the widespread use of antimalarial drugs will inoculate them to an extent.

[RunningMn9]

Hopefully the widespread use of antimalarial drugs will inoculate them to an extent.

Yeah, antimalarial drugs don't inoculate you against COVID-19, so hopefully they've got a better plan. (NOTE: to the extent that they actually help at all, it is as a treatment, not a preventative)

[LordMortis]

Hopefully the widespread use of antimalarial drugs will inoculate them to an extent.

Yeah, antimalarial drugs don't inoculate you against COVID-19, so hopefully they've got a better plan. (NOTE: to the extent that they actually help at all, it is as a treatment, not a preventative)

For all of the talk here and on social media I was surprised to find out the jury is actually out on this. Someone pointed me to why people are using Chloroquine, which sent me down the rabbit hole where I eventually discovered INSERM is investigating its effectiveness on COVID-19

The launching point which then has 83 related articles from 19/20, wherein you discover things like Chloroquine the likelihood of inducing heart problems

(It mentions both as treatment and as a prophylactic for past COVID virii)

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1232869/

But you eventually end up here

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04315948

For my health, if heart problems a major concern for me if I contract COVID19, taking a drug in trial that is known to cause heart failure as realistic caution is not something I want to be testing out.

Anyhoo, there's a whole lot of opinions out there way more qualified than mine but only one attempt at really understanding and their lips are sealed as to the progress beyond

Corona Virus Infection Drug: Remdesivir Drug: Lopinavir/ritonavir Drug: Interferon Beta-1A Drug: Hydroxychloroquine Other: Standard of care Phase 3

Study Type : Interventional (Clinical Trial)
Estimated Enrollment : 3100 participants
Allocation: Randomized
Intervention Model: Parallel Assignment
Intervention Model Description: The study will randomize participants 1:1:1:1:1 to standard of care alone (control) or with investigational product added. If additional arms are added to or dropped from the trial, randomization will proceed with an equal probability of assignment to each of the remaining arms.
Masking: None (Open Label)
Primary Purpose: Treatment
Official Title: Multi-centre, Adaptive, Randomized Trial of the Safety and Efficacy of Treatments of COVID-19 in Hospitalized Adults
Actual Study Start Date : March 22, 2020
Estimated Primary Completion Date : March 2023
Estimated Study Completion Date : March 2023

[LordMortis]

https://www.mlive.com/news/ann-arbor/20 ... vivor.html

ANN ARBOR, MI – St. Joseph Mercy Hospital in Ann Arbor treated its first hospitalized COVID-19 patient Sunday, April 19, with plasma donated by a recovered patient as part of a nationwide experimental program working to cure the disease.

The patient is one of 11 in the in the St. Joseph Mercy Health System participating in the Mayo Clinic’s Coordinated Expanded Access to Convalescent Plasma Program, according to a St. Joseph Mercy Health System statement.

[gameoverman]

I hope they are using plasma from more than one recovered patient. It's possible that certain recovered patients have super plasma that will help treat people, while some recovered patients have standard issue plasma that isn't worth crap.

[Paingod]

I mused about a possible faint silver lining to this on the way home Friday... with schools closed for months, is this the end of head lice?

My wife reminded me of the outbreak we had in our school a couple years ago and how the kids kept getting them again and again because of that one kid who's parents either couldn't afford to treat it or just didn't give a damn. It took the school nurse telling his parents that he could not come back until they resolved it. We had to go through the head lice disinfection at home three times before it was over because of one kid's parents.

... so probably not.

[dbt1949]

My youngest stepson was that guy. His daughter was constantly fighting those little buggers.

[Isgrimnur]

I hope they are using plasma from more than one recovered patient. It's possible that certain recovered patients have super plasma that will help treat people, while some recovered patients have standard issue plasma that isn't worth crap.

Damned preorder bonuses.

[LawBeefaroni]

I hope they are using plasma from more than one recovered patient. It's possible that certain recovered patients have super plasma that will help treat people, while some recovered patients have standard issue plasma that isn't worth crap.

Damned preorder bonuses.

COVID-19 Plasma POTY Edition.

[Jeff V]

COVID-19 Plasma POTY Edition.

I hate it when the media declares something to be Pandemic of the Year when there's still more than 7 months of year to go. It's like they're asking for something worse to come.

[Isgrimnur]

I look forward to them comparing K/D ratios.

[Paingod]

COVID-19 Plasma POTY Edition.

I hate it when the media declares something to be Pandemic of the Year when there's still more than 7 months of year to go. It's like they're asking for something worse to come.

We've still got a good hurricane season to go, some earthquakes, another set of wildfires, and maybe - if we're lucky - some sort of catastrophic nuclear plant meltdown. Possibly all before July. Who knows, right? Let's not poke Lachesis too hard right now.

[msduncan]

Just read a letter from a graduating senior on the interwebs and she made me realize something:

This graduating class was born in the shadow of 9/11 and graduated HS amidst a global pandemic. (paraphrased)

[msduncan]

PS - with the current lack of any kind of sports, I bet the NFL draft this week gets MASSIVE ratings. I know I'll probably watch it and I don't normally pay attention.

[Jaymann]

PS - with the current lack of any kind of sports, I bet the NFL draft this week gets MASSIVE ratings. I know I'll probably watch it and I don't normally pay attention.

I'm sure you will be thrilled when Tua goes to the Chargers.