Octopus Overlords

LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Jan 18, 2022 11:33 am

Smoove_B wrote: Tue Jan 18, 2022 11:32 am Absolutely shameful.

The United States has a lower vaccination rate than any other country tracked besides Russia.

Agreed, we cannot continue to lose to Russia.

Nice to know there are assholes in the workplace everywhere.

https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1483434822580244481

Nina Totenberg reports that (1) the Chief Justice asked his colleagues to mask up out of respect for Sotomayor’s health concerns, (2) only Gorsuch refused, and (3) his refusal forced Sotomayor to participate in arguments and conference remotely.

If they want to take risks with Sotomayor out of the room, I'm comfortable with the odds.

I'm kind of fascinated by how despite Kavanaugh getting the greater ire of the Trump justices (not totally unreasonably, given the rapey business), somehow Gorsuch seems to be the worst person out of them.

El Guapo wrote: Tue Jan 18, 2022 12:17 pm I'm kind of fascinated by how despite Kavanaugh getting the greater ire of the Trump justices (not totally unreasonably, given the rapey business), somehow Gorsuch seems to be the worst person out of them.

He is certainly playing an asshole on radio right now. I don't know if this puts him in the 'worst category' but having read his questions and opinions often - the man is a bit loony on top. He finds hints of anti-religious conspiracy in so many cases.

malchior wrote: Tue Jan 18, 2022 1:45 pm

El Guapo wrote: Tue Jan 18, 2022 12:17 pm I'm kind of fascinated by how despite Kavanaugh getting the greater ire of the Trump justices (not totally unreasonably, given the rapey business), somehow Gorsuch seems to be the worst person out of them.

He is certainly playing an asshole on radio right now. I don't know if this puts him in the 'worst category' but having read his questions and opinions often - the man is a bit loony on top. He finds hints of anti-religious conspiracy in so many cases.

Right now Gorsuch seems like much more of a danger to the republic than Kavanaugh, in that the former seems like much more of a fanatical conservative unmoored to the relevant facts and law.

On N95s vs KN95s, since it was brought up earlier upthread:

Coverage of mask stories often includes mention of both N95 and KN95 masks. Warren says the two should not be confused with one another.

“When I make N95s in the U.S., the manufacturing is overseen by the federal government. They audit us, they visit us, They make sure that we make them properly. KN95 is a Chinese standard, but nobody oversees the manufacture of KN95s. I could make KN95s in my basement and nobody would knock on my door as I sold them,” Warren said in a Tuesday interview on his production floor in the city’s Tech Center area.

We wanted to see how they compare with other types of masks, so we went to a testing area where the room was filled with airborne sodium chloride.

10 On Your Side’s Chris Horne tested a cloth mask he’s been using, washing and re-using for months. It failed miserably, scoring just 2 on a scale of a perfect 200 for fit and filtration.

A KN95 did better, letting in only half as many particles as the cloth mask, but also failing the test.

Then came an N95, which was about 50 times more effective than the cloth mask Horne had been using. Each box of 50 has its own QR code where you can see the test results from that particular lot. Warren says the ivWatch masks, sold under the brand name blox, provide “well over 99% filtration.”

https://www.wavy.com/news/health/corona ... -same/amp/

If they performed that poorly, I have to believe that they were counterfeit KN95s rather than the real thing.

In a peak pandemic and peak age of misinformation/disinformation/bad reporting/noise, Gorsuch and Sotomayor issued a combined statement saying that Sotomayor never asked Gorsuch to wear a mask (yet they all pretty much did) and Sotomayor took the call from her chambers. The combined statement said they had a warm relationship. Weird stuff. The Twitter chorus of course yelled it was Roberts who asked people to wear a mask!

https://twitter.com/DJNYC1/status/1483847056955514880

And just recently Roberts just issued a statement saying he did no such thing.

https://twitter.com/scotusreporter/stat ... 6607984650

Lots of wiggle room in everything said and obviously the original reporting is now in question. Good stuff America.

If the reality of it was that Roberts asked justices to wear masks and only Gorsuch refused, why would Sotomayor join a statement saying that she never asked Gorsuch to wear a mask and how they're close friends? Yeah the two aren't technically in conflict, but Sotomayor would know perfectly well that the statement would be misleading in that context. So why would she be inclined to help Gorsuch by signing the misleading statement?

Maintain the sanctity and legacy of the Court. PR/damage control.

OTOH I could certainly see the original report being incorrect or based on misinterpretation.

This is the original report and you'd think NPR would have updated by now. Not a good look for them.

https://www.npr.org/2022/01/18/10734283 ... ers-either

LordMortis wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 5:13 pm This is the original report and you'd think NPR would have updated by now. Not a good look for them.

https://www.npr.org/2022/01/18/10734283 ... ers-either

I assume they're checking. Nina is a solid reporter.

https://mobile.twitter.com/srl/status/1 ... 3335512068


Also,.the venerable SCOTUS, the last bastion of integrity in the federal government, is now officially part of clowntown.

Yeah I could see Roberts suggesting wearing a mask which Gorsuch ignored and saying he never asked. It's a bunch of lawyers. I'm sure they know how to nuance. Sotomayor joining a conciliatory statement makes total sense when you have a lifetime job where no one is held accountable for any of their bad behavior...and they don't want to encourage more stories like this.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 5:19 pmAlso,.the venerable SCOTUS, the last bastion of integrity in the federal government, is now officially part of clowntown.

It is also my assessment that they are on the road to clowntown. This is what "we" mean when we talk about when there are worries about their legitimacy. Not that people stop listening to them or following their orders. Though that might become the case over time. Instead immediately it is the corrosive effect of their jurisprudence and related nonsense like this on stability. Crap like this wouldn't stick as much if the court was held in high esteem.

In other news, what I'm reading on the omicron surge seems encouraging: Omicron Is In Retreat.

The next stage
The Covid situation in the U.S. remains fairly grim, with overwhelmed hospitals and nearly 2,000 deaths a day. It’s likely to remain grim into early February. Caseloads are still high in many communities, and death trends typically lag case trends by three weeks.

But the full picture is less grim than the current moment.

Omicron appears to be in retreat, even if the official national data doesn’t yet reflect that reality. Omicron also appears to be mild in a vast majority of cases, especially for the vaccinated. This combination means that the U.S. may be only a few weeks away from the most encouraging Covid situation since early last summer, before the Delta variant emerged.

If that happens — and there is no guarantee it will, as Katherine Wu of The Atlantic explains — it will be time to ask how society can move back toward normalcy and reduce the harsh toll that pandemic isolation has inflicted, particularly on children and disproportionately on low-income children.

When should schools resume all activities? When should offices reopen? When should masks come off? When should asymptomatic people stop interrupting their lives because of a Covid exposure? Above all, when does Covid prevention do more harm — to physical and mental health — than good?

These are tricky questions, and they could often sound inappropriate during the Omicron surge. Now, though, the surge is receding.

As mentioned upstream, it's certainly retreating in parts of America, but it's also rising in others. And by way of "retreat" I'll note that we had 9K new cases in NJ reported today. Which is absolutely better than the 33K cases we hit the first week of January. But its still a far cry from the ~2500 daily cases we were averaging Sep-November. The idea that 9K cases is somehow "exciting" as the push to go back to normal is coming harder and harder is problematic.

Regardless, as our cases go down, other parts of America will surge. Such is the story of this pandemic. If the pattern holds, the NE will see the next surge sometime in early March, and then we'll be reading about "Pi in retreat" sometime in early May. Because we can't fucking learn a goddamn thing.

Smoove_B wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 9:58 pm As mentioned upstream, it's certainly retreating in parts of America, but it's also rising in others. And by way of "retreat" I'll note that we had 9K new cases in NJ reported today. Which is absolutely better than the 33K cases we hit the first week of January. But its still a far cry from the ~2500 daily cases we were averaging Sep-November. The idea that 9K cases is somehow "exciting" as the push to go back to normal is coming harder and harder is problematic.

Regardless, as our cases go down, other parts of America will surge. Such is the story of this pandemic. If the pattern holds, the NE will see the next surge sometime in early March, and then we'll be reading about "Pi in retreat" sometime in early May. Because we can't fucking learn a goddamn thing.

If it's Pi rising on March 14, we'll know this thing is engineered.

Smoove_B wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 9:58 pm As mentioned upstream, it's certainly retreating in parts of America, but it's also rising in others. And by way of "retreat" I'll note that we had 9K new cases in NJ reported today. Which is absolutely better than the 33K cases we hit the first week of January. But its still a far cry from the ~2500 daily cases we were averaging Sep-November. The idea that 9K cases is somehow "exciting" as the push to go back to normal is coming harder and harder is problematic.

Regardless, as our cases go down, other parts of America will surge. Such is the story of this pandemic. If the pattern holds, the NE will see the next surge sometime in early March, and then we'll be reading about "Pi in retreat" sometime in early May. Because we can't fucking learn a goddamn thing.

This is what is depressing me. I'm convinced what we are seeing as a groundhog's day of false hope over and over being peddled lives in the same space as the denial that our democracy is collapsing. People - especially Americans - want to live in a fantasy world. Facts, trends, and consequences? They don't matter. Even when they come for them they even die disbelieving what is happening to them.

It is. It's like our short attention span is somehow mixing with all this. That we literally just forgot the Delta surge that happened in late July-September for most of America as we barreled head-first into Omicron in December as if Delta never happened. Or that we were just reading articles about how "Delta is in retreat" and everything is great (gotta get those kids back in school)!

So now the survivors (I mean that literally - people that didn't die from Omicron) are all standing around and reading about how things are getting better now and when we see signs the next wave is coming, we'll all stare at each other and wonder what could we possibly do to stop it from hitting us so hard again? Isn't there anything we could try to do differently this time? Nah, we'll just let the next group of poor slobs die and pick up the discussion again in May.

I really don't know how we break out of this. The Overton window has shifted and we're apparently just going to accept an insane number of daily/monthly/annual deaths from COVID as normal now.

Again, I'd love to be wrong. I'd love to see COVID just magically disappear like the 1918 pandemic. But it's not happening, despite acting like it. What we are collectively allowing to occur - death and future suffering - is absolutely mind-boggling to me.

Wait, isn't it unequivocally good news that (1) Omicron is demonstrably and significantly milder than past variants; and (2) that our numbers are following a similar pattern to those in other countries where the peak is reached quickly and burns out even quicker?

These were both up for debate just a month ago. There were many people questioning whether we had sufficient data to show that Omicron was much milder than prior strains, and others were suggesting it would be foolish to think the Omicron variant would follow a path typical to what we saw in South Africa. It was right to question those optimistic forecasts, but now that we're see that they seem to be proving up, can't we take a moment to be happy about that?

It is too early to be happy about it. You still have over 700K new daily cases and over 2000 daily death.

Kurth wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 12:52 am Wait, isn't it unequivocally good news that (1) Omicron is demonstrably and significantly milder than past variants; and (2) that our numbers are following a similar pattern to those in other countries where the peak is reached quickly and burns out even quicker?

Not unequivocally. We have far fewer vaccinations than many of our peer nations. The high transmissibility is overcoming the mildness. Not real numbers but if it is half as deadly but 4 times as many people get infected then you have problems. This appears to be the case here in some ratio that appears to be leading to similar or worse total counts (but lower on average) than delta at the moment.

It also is a bit of a mirage and the media has done a pretty poor job contextualizing this. It appears to be peaking relatively quickly in major cities where we have higher vaccinations. Even then it still stressed already hard hit healthcare systems. In effect, we're systematically degrading our healthcare system wave after wave without a definitive end in sight yet. We bet a lot on this being the end of things without any real reason to believe that'll be true.

Another factor to think about is despite early pronouncements that the wave is receding, this wave like *every one* before this one will likely hit other parts of the nation very hard in different time frames. There are several competing models but the consensus model is we might not see the wave end until early to mid-march with deaths of an additional 50-300K people. And on top we have no reason to think this variant does not cause long COVID. If it happens to be the same rate as other variants well guess what? We will now have a ton of people with long COVID now. Swell. Though we don't know if this will be the case or not. It is just a thought experiment about an unknown risk we face.

These were both up for debate just a month ago. There were many people questioning whether we had sufficient data to show that Omicron was much milder than prior strains, and others were suggesting it would be foolish to think the Omicron variant would follow a path typical to what we saw in South Africa. It was right to question those optimistic forecasts, but now that we're see that they seem to be proving up, can't we take a moment to be happy about that?

I mean in an absolute vacuum on an individual level it is indeed better even though getting this disease still risks those potential long-term debilitating long COVID symptoms. In any case, we're seeing between 2500-3000 people dying a day right now. This situation is still dire. This 'it's mild' narrative has been incredibly dangerous. And everyone seems to be betting a lot that this will be the end of the pandemic because it supposedly is burning through the population...with no real certainty about whether we're going to be seeing a wave again in 3-6 months.

Kurth wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 12:52 am Wait, isn't it unequivocally good news that (1) Omicron is demonstrably and significantly milder than past variants;

It's inherently milder than Delta. It's not clear that it's inherently milder than earlier variants (Delta was something like 2x more severe than earlier variants - at least, when making comparisons of how each dealt with the unvaccinated). And it's far too early to know much with regards to long covid and Omicron.

Thankfully, we've got vaccines that make Omicron milder (for those that were able to and did get vaccinated).

Coda on the Djokovic affair. What it looks like to have adults who face reality and take public health seriously.

Three judges who unanimously rejected Novak Djokovic's bid to stay in Australia to contest the Australian Open have revealed their reasons for the ruling.

In a written statement, the judges said it was not irrational for Immigration Minister Alex Hawke to eject the Djokovic due to concerns the unvaccinated Serbian star could pose a risk to public health and order.

The ruling said it was open to the minister to infer Djokovic's presence could encourage anti-vax protests, which could aid the spread of Covid-19.

And they noted the minister's decision also included the star's possible influence on people who were unsure about whether to take the vaccine.

"The possible influence on the second group comes from common sense and human experience: An iconic world tennis star may influence people of all ages, young or old, but perhaps especially the young and the impressionable, to emulate him. This is not fanciful; it does not need evidence," the ruling said.

Kurth wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 12:52 am It was right to question those optimistic forecasts, but now that we're see that they seem to be proving up, can't we take a moment to be happy about that?

I am having a hard time being happy about doing the absolute bare minimum (if that) in most places and seeing another wave of a vaccine-preventable disease wash over communities with little or no effort to stop it. And once again, how many thousands of preventable deaths and millions of people exposed and now potentially at risk for long COVID (which we still don't understand).

My point is I don't want to in any way suggest I condone what we just did by saying "Well, I'm certainly happy that's over" - as if how we handled what just happened was super terrific. Instead, once again we let this affect marginalized populations and told them "it's mild, you'll be fine" as we forced them back into work. As we forced kids back into schools. As we tell hospitals to just deal with it. All we've done is normalize what just happened and guaranteed that we're going to do even less during the next wave because Omicron wasn't so bad, right?

All that remains now is how masks are hurting kids and we need to make sure no one is wearing masks anymore - the pandemic is over, haven't you heard?

Smoove_B wrote: Wed Jan 19, 2022 11:35 pm It is. It's like our short attention span is somehow mixing with all this. That we literally just forgot the Delta surge that happened in late July-September for most of America as we barreled head-first into Omicron in December as if Delta never happened. Or that we were just reading articles about how "Delta is in retreat" and everything is great (gotta get those kids back in school)!

So now the survivors (I mean that literally - people that didn't die from Omicron) are all standing around and reading about how things are getting better now and when we see signs the next wave is coming, we'll all stare at each other and wonder what could we possibly do to stop it from hitting us so hard again? Isn't there anything we could try to do differently this time? Nah, we'll just let the next group of poor slobs die and pick up the discussion again in May.

I really don't know how we break out of this. The Overton window has shifted and we're apparently just going to accept an insane number of daily/monthly/annual deaths from COVID as normal now.

Again, I'd love to be wrong. I'd love to see COVID just magically disappear like the 1918 pandemic. But it's not happening, despite acting like it. What we are collectively allowing to occur - death and future suffering - is absolutely mind-boggling to me.

This is normalcy bias.

It is extremely powerful, omnipresent, and works just fine until you die. At which point you can no longer be wrong.

About 70% of people reportedly display normalcy bias during a disaster.

I suppose that's fair. But it's still frustrating.

Yup and that is why I was likening it to the broader picture - Americans indulge in high levels of fantasy thinking in a good year (e.g., most people are going to be rich if only they pray or work hard enough). Hat tip to Fantasyland for explaining why Americans are extremely prone to it. Still in a bad run like we are in it is deadly. And nature doesn't care about our social constructs. It is very frustrating to constantly watch people think they are going to pretend their way out of a disaster.

Smoove_B wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 10:35 am I suppose that's fair. But it's still frustrating.

As a follow-up to Smoove's concerns, the thing that worries me is all of the other surgeries, check-ups, therapies, and lab work that is not being done for people that aren't directly affected by Covid. It's not like cancer, tumors, appendicitis, and kidney stones are taking the day off and letting Covid have the spotlight. People are still growing cancer cells, tumors, kidney stones, whatever. The difference I suspect is that now doctors aren't able to do as good a job checking for and catching those things early because they have to deal with Covid.

Courtesy of Popehat, this amused me.

https://twitter.com/Popehat/status/1483973538826514433

raydude wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 10:48 am

Smoove_B wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 10:35 am I suppose that's fair. But it's still frustrating.

As a follow-up to Smoove's concerns, the thing that worries me is all of the other surgeries, check-ups, therapies, and lab work that is not being done for people that aren't directly affected by Covid. It's not like cancer, tumors, appendicitis, and kidney stones are taking the day off and letting Covid have the spotlight. People are still growing cancer cells, tumors, kidney stones, whatever. The difference I suspect is that now doctors aren't able to do as good a job checking for and catching those things early because they have to deal with Covid.

Absolutely a problem. It was a problem the last time we had to shut down for elective procedures.

FWIW, we are planning to open back up for electives on 1/25. This go-around we continue to do some non-emergent but still urgent procedures and screenings. Essentially we had more leeway in this area but undoubtedly there is still a lot of delayed care.

I was scheduled for a routine colonoscopy next week and decided to cancel it. We haven't had a limit on elective procedures at all since 2020 and I just didn't feel good about going into that environment right now.

I have several things I really want to talk to my doctor about, things that in any other time I'd have made an appointment for. I have wrist and hand pain I can't identify. I've got whatever's going on that caused me to pass out a week or so ago. I have a medication I need to see about adjusting. But now? I'm just doing research and using home remedies (evidence based, but still stemming from best guesses as to diagnosis.)

Blackhawk wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 1:24 pm I've got whatever's going on that caused me to pass out a week or so ago.

If I had no idea what did that, I'd be seeing a doctor.

I've been my PCP twice now, once every six months. I've seen my GI doc by telehealth once, for a huge bill, harumph. I went to the optometrist once. I've had a few blood draws. And I've been to the dentist too many time. The dentist, maskless, with people in my mouth and breathing through their masks into my face, has been difficult for me to do.

I stay generally isolated but as I get on in years and take a daily pill factory, there is no escaping going to the doctor. They keep trying to talk me in to more but I pretty much keep at the minimum to keep my meds prescribed.

LordMortis wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 1:33 pm

Blackhawk wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 1:24 pm I've got whatever's going on that caused me to pass out a week or so ago.

If I had no idea what did that, I'd be seeing a doctor.

I have ideas as to what's doing it, and it isn't anything new (since I was a kid - we had a discussion in another thread) - it just unexpectedly increased in frequency and severity for a day or two.

Just a casual threat of some 'mild' domestic terrorism

https://twitter.com/shannonrwatts/statu ... 0252379137

Uh did they arrest her? What in the holy hell is wrong with people? I'll never understand why people are so worked up about a mask that they think it's life or death. Oh wait it is..

Octavious wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 11:34 am Uh did they arrest her? What in the holy hell is wrong with people? I'll never understand why people are so worked up about a mask that they think it's life or death. Oh wait it is..

No idea. It isn't like it appears that any police were present. I'm hoping someone is investigating this but ... it's sad that we have to question whether she'll be held accountable.

The mask is just a stand-in for "government overreach." These folks now have a concrete example of "government overreach" that they can not only take a freedom stand against, they have a platform at every city council and school board meeting. It's a perfect recipe for these whack jobs to crawl out of the woodwork.