Political Randomness

[Enough]

It's not likely this election, but demographics are catching up with TX. I expect the state to start to move more into the purple shade of things over the next decade.

[Isgrimnur]

Looking at the historical maps, you have to go back forty years to the bicentennial to see a state fall out of that line. With a Nebrasterisk in 2008.

[Skinypupy]

Wasn't sure where to it this, so I'll throw it in here.

Fivethirtyeight had a very interesting chat today entitled "Is This what it looks like when a party falls apart".. Talked a lot about the historical precedent (or lack thereof) for what's happening right now.

[malchior]

Fivethirtyeight had a very interesting chat today entitled "Is This what it looks like when a party falls apart".. Talked a lot about the historical precedent (or lack thereof) for what's happening right now.

harry: These are all theoretical questions. But they point to the problem Republicans have. If they denounce Drumpf too much, they risk lower turnout from the base. If they don’t denounce him enough, they risk turning off swing voters.

This makes sense and talk about a fine line to walk.

[Defiant]

I really wish that this election would break the flyover firewall that runs from Texas to the Dakotas. Nate Silver has South Dakota as the likeliest at 17.7% at the moment, with Texas at 13.6%.

Clinton currently has about a 40-50% shot of grabbing NE-2 like Obama did.

[Isgrimnur]

Texas

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who is under indictment on felony charges of duping investors in a tech startup, accepted $100,000 for his criminal defense from the head of a medical imaging provider while his office investigated the company for Medicaid fraud.

Headed to trial

The Texas Court of Criminal Appeals on Wednesday refused to take up Ken Paxton's last effort to have his felony indictments thrown out, which means the first-term Republican attorney general will likely face trial as early as next spring.
...
The Republican-dominated criminal court gave no explanation Wednesday for its decision not to take up Paxton's case. A lower appeals court in Dallas, as well as the Tarrant County judge hearing the case, had already refused to throw out his indictments.

But Paxton's attorneys said they likely will ask the high court to reconsider its decision in light of the fact that a federal judge recently threw out separate civil charges their client faces based on the same allegations.
...
Paxton was indicted in July 2015 on two first-degree felony charges of allegedly duping friends and clients into investing in a North Texas technology firm without telling them he was being compensated by the company. He is also accused of failing to register with the state as an "investment adviser representative," a third-degree felony.
...
Civil fraud charges lobbed at Paxton by the federal government have fared far less well, however.

Last week, U.S. District Judge Amos Mazzant III threw out the charges, which are based on the same allegations as the indictments, saying the federal government had failed to show Paxton broke any disclosure laws when he encouraged people to invest in the tech firm.
...
Paxton's attorneys say the high court must reconsider the decision made Wednesday, taking into account Mazzant's ruling. Wice has denied that the apparent failure of the federal case has any bearing on the state case he is prosecuting.

[Isgrimnur]

Hurricane?! Why should that matter?

Florida Gov. Rick Scott said that he will not extend the deadline for voter registration in the state despite the potential impact from Hurricane Matthew.

Federal judge extends deadline

A federal judge ordered Florida election officials to extend the state's voter registration deadline to October 18, in response to damage and disruption caused by Hurricane Matthew.

The state's original deadline was October 11.

Florida Democrats and the state's League of Women Voters asked the judge for the extension.

[malchior]

Almost posted this in the LePage thread but thought it was more of a random thought. Anyway the LePage rant about authoritarianism got me thinking - has there been a time when there were as many crappy Governors as there are now? Either unpopular or just flat out nuts. Think - McCrory, Christie, LePage, Brownback, Snyder, Malloy, and Rauner to name a few. Is this just national politics finally crashing down on the States? I'm sitting front row on Christie and it definitely was national politics there. He spent 6 years of his governorship getting ready for running for President (and screwing the state up royally in the process). Most of these guys are Republican so I don't know how that factors but it seems like everything is going to hell in hand basket across the country all at once.

[Isgrimnur]

Stay classy, Alex Jones

Multiple hecklers shouting "Bill Clinton is a rapist" interrupted President Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton at separate rallies after a pro-Donald Trump radio host offered a cash reward to anyone carrying out such a stunt.

Three separate protesters disrupted Hillary Clinton's election campaign rally with Al Gore in Miami, while three others — including two wearing "Bill Clinton rapist" T-shirts — cut into Obama as he addressed a crowd in North Carolina.

The Clinton campaign linked the incidents to Alex Jones, the conspiracy theorist and right-wing radio host who founded the Infowars website.

Jones, who has prayed for Donald Trump on his show, on Friday offered $1,000 to supporters pictured on television for at least five seconds wearing a "Bill Clinton rape" T-shirt and $5,000 to anyone who can be heard shouting "Bill Clinton is a rapist" while wearing such a garment.

Jones, who believes the Sandy Hook shootings were a hoax, also says Obama and Hillary Clinton are demons who smell like sulfur.

[Kraken]

Florida Democrats and the state's League of Women Voters asked the judge for the extension.

Thereby ensuring that Republicans will challenge it, quite possibly throwing FL's outcome (especially if it's a squeaker) into a divided Supreme Court. One hopes that the Electoral College outcome won't hinge on FL this time.

[Blackhawk]

Wouldn't it be something if we couldn't elect a President without a decision from the Supreme Court, and couldn't get a decision from the Supreme Court until we elected a President?

[Defiant]

Wouldn't it be something if we couldn't elect a President without a decision from the Supreme Court, and couldn't get a decision from the Supreme Court until we elected a President?

Oh, great, a government stuck on a deadlock. Would we have to roll back to the start of the election and try again?

[Max Peck]

Well, whoever has been trying to get the USA directly involved in Yemen for the last few days just got their wish.

U.S.-launched Tomahawk cruise missiles destroyed three coastal radar sites in Houthi-controlled territory on Yemen's Red Sea Coast early Thursday, officials said, a retaliatory action that followed two incidents this week in which missiles were fired at U.S. Navy ships.

The strikes marked the first shots fired by the U.S. in anger against the Houthis in Yemen's long-running civil war. The U.S. previously only provided logistical support and refueling to the Saudi-led coalition battling Yemen's Shiite rebels known as Houthis and their allies, including supporters of Yemen's former president, Ali Abdullah Saleh.

While the U.S. military has been focused on al-Qaida in Yemen, the Houthis had not been a primary target of American forces until the missile launches from Houthi-controlled territory this week.

No information on casualties from the U.S. missiles was provided by American officials. The three radar sites were in remote areas, where there was little risk of civilian casualties or collateral damage, said a military official who was not authorized to be named and spoke on condition of anonymity.

The destroyer USS Nitze launched the cruise missiles, the official said.

President Barack Obama authorized the strikes at the recommendation of Defense Secretary Ash Carter and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Joseph Dunford, Pentagon press secretary Peter Cook said in a statement. U.S. officials had said earlier that the U.S. was weighing what military response to take.

"These limited self-defense strikes were conducted to protect our personnel, our ships and our freedom of navigation in this important maritime passageway," Cook said following the U.S. action. "The United States will respond to any further threat to our ships and commercial traffic, as appropriate, and will continue to maintain our freedom of navigation in the Red Sea, the Bab al-Mandeb and elsewhere around the world."

[Isgrimnur]

Randy Milholland of Something Positive really put it succinctly today in his strip.

"Between two evils, I chose the competent one."

[Smoove_B]

In a move that will not surprise any NJ resident, a phone tax that has been collected for the last decade hasn't actually been used to create the 911 system it was designed to fund:

...for more than a decade, every person in New Jersey with a phone has paid a tax on their monthly bill to make it happen, handing over a whopping $1.37 billion to Trenton.

Rather than using the money for 911, lawmakers and governors have instead raided it time and again to balance the budget, leaving critical upgrades to the state's most important public safety system on hold.

An NJ Advance Media analysis found that of the $1.37 billion the state has collected in 911 fees since 2004, only 15 percent, about $211 million, has been used to help pay for the 911 system.

Investment in the upgrade, known as NextGen 911, has trickled to a halt.

From 2005 to 2008, records show the state spent about $42 million on it. Since then, it has spent $71,652. In 2014, the most recent year available, it put just $9,141 of the $121 million it collected toward the upgrade.

[malchior]

Not a shock at all. Things like this are why I am on a 5 year exit plan from NJ. The last straw was the gas tax deal for me. I had no problem with them raising it (initially). I was not happy that they were forced to tie it to budget busting proposals such as cutting the sales tax or tax cuts that favored the extremely wealthy. It essentially was another tax bill designed to wring money out of the middle class. I was annoyed enough by the "deal" to go and read the tax bill. That is when I found out that the NJ TTF is up to its ears in bond debt. The TTF owes something like $32 billion in bond+interest payments through 2041. And the last tax bill basically increased the credit card authorization another $12 billion with $16 billion to be potentially spent (because there was some spending capacity still left on the old card). The tax increase provides a bit of buffer but is essentially designed to cover the payments+interest only. Fan-fucking-tastic. So in 8 years they'll be back at the trough again. And the papers didn't even mention the word bond in any position article they wrote supporting this bill. Or any article period. At least I couldn't find one. Disgusting. No one is watching the thieves reaching into the tax payers pockets at every opportunity in this crap state.

I expect another wave of credit downgrades which will make these bonds more expensive and further limit the state's ability to manage its debt. And with the pension issues and the looming budget issues from tax cuts they will be coming after all our wallets again soon. We had big fiscal problems 10 years ago but 7 years of Christie playing shell games with the budget leave us with a house of cards of debt that could collapse spectacularly. Especially if a recession puts pressure on the budget. I expect there is a significant chance the sales tax cut will reversed by Murphy soon after his coronation. Especially since his plan is for "growth" to fix the budget issues. Good luck with that.

[Isgrimnur]

The flyover states would more than welcome you.

[malchior]

The flyover states would more than welcome you.

Funny this is the biggest struggle - I've been many places - and I culturally am a "tri-state" type person and so is my wife. Finding a suitable place that will work culturally is the biggest issue. It might even be a short-trip over the blue line on the left side of the map. Still I'm almost at the point where I'll take any place that doesn't have $13000 property tax payments - 7% sales tax (soon to be temporarily 6.725%) and 7% income taxes. Sky high car insurance rates to boot. And to know they are flushing it all down the drain via corruption and incompetence. Enough.

[Isgrimnur]

NJ.com

New Jerseyans most often move to Pennsylvania, New York, Florida, California and North Carolina, though Pennsylvania is traditionally the most popular destination.

States with no state individual income tax are in red; states taxing only dividend and interest income are in yellow.

And there are plenty of cost of living calculators out there.

[Isgrimnur]

And for reference, my house is a 3/2/2 at 2,271 sq ft. My purchase price was $200k, and my taxes for the year are ~$4,400.

[malchior]

Yeah PA is like 3.5% flat if I remember. I mean I'm not opposed to a progressive tax system or even a high income tax. It is the total tax burden that kills us here. And then the high cost of living. People are literally draining out of the state and I can't see that stopping. Especially if you pay attention to the apocalypse approaching. There is no state bankruptcy code. And the State is teetering on the edge for real now. Who knows what happens.

[ImLawBoy]

I can't vouch for the site, but a quick search on "Tax Burden by State" gives me this.

FWIW, NJ is 7th (NY is 1st, IL is 10th, PA is 25th, and, unsurprisingly, AK is 50th).

[malchior]

The pattern I usually see is NY as number 1. Especially NYC residents. Then NJ/CT/RI/HI in various orders. But NY doesn't have the structural problems we do. Nor does CT. PA is in good shape. NJ and IL are both poised to implode fiscally - I wonder if either would survive 2008 in their current states. The pension fund is insanely mismanaged and underfunded. The Pension managed to lose money over the last year. How the fuck do you manage that! I forgot to mention that one. I was just like. Fuck it. They aren't even trying. The market returns 9% over the last year and they lose 1. You can't make up that level of incompetence. And they got wiped out in 2008 and never recovered as well.

Edit to add NJ fun fact: Total assets under management in FY 2001. $72 Billion. Total assets under management in FY 2016. $72 Billion. Pension payments paid in FY 2001 - $3 Billion. Pension payments paid in FY 2015. $9.6Billion. IMPLOSION! I never read these before. If these were my finances I'd lose my mind. Oh wait - they sort of are.

[Smoove_B]

Edit to add NJ fun fact: Total assets under management in FY 2001. $72 Billion. Total assets under management in FY 2016. $72 Billion. Pension payments paid in FY 2001 - $3 Billion. Pension payments paid in FY 2015. $9.6Billion. IMPLOSION! I never read these before. If these were my finances I'd lose my mind. Oh wait - they sort of are.

As someone with three NJ pensions, I'm very concerned.

[malchior]

It depends which pension fund. If they are related to local government or FPRS pensions you are in better position. They are about 80% funded. State jobs, colleges, and universities are worse off. I was ABP and I think that means I'm ok since they were 403b. The match was paid at the time I made my contribution. But I'm not 100% sure. The plan won't let me roll until 55 and I don't know if that is because it is pension tied or not.

[RunningMn9]

Yeah PA is like 3.5% flat if I remember.

I work with a ton of PA folks. PA is a flat 3.5%. That's just the state income tax. PA also features local income tax (NJ typically does not), and rapidly escalating property taxes (at least in the areas that are within proximity of jobs in NJ).

[malchior]

I heard about the property tax thing. Apparently there is an effect where NJ people move to towns en masse and eventually transform the community to resemble the voracious tax beasts here. The enemy is definitely ourselves here. Getting out of the blast radius for the general and pension issues is honestly my primary concern.

[Enough]

[Enough]

Also, finally starting to get some post-grab her... polls in and Trump is actually up in OH still but HRC is now leading again in NC.

[Enough]

Paul Penzone (D): 51

Joe Arpaio (R): 41

OMG, could this really finally happen?

[hepcat]

Rep. Mike Kelley weaves one hell of a "what if" story.

Four years ago, I watched our country miss a tremendous opportunity to vastly improve our national well-being when we re-elected President Barack Obama and shunned Mitt Romney.

To this day, I believe the United States suffered on every measurable level -- economically, societally and internationally -- because of that decision, and I suspect many of my fellow Americans retrospectively agree.
Why? Because of what "might have been."

Compared to the undeniable chaos of the last four years, a Republican presidency would have delivered a dramatically better reality for our citizens and for the world.

Domestically, dozens of serious jobs bills would likely have been signed into law; the Environmental Protection Agency's war on American energy, especially coal, would likely have ended; the Keystone XL pipeline would surely have begun construction; comprehensive tax reform could have lowered rates for everyone and made our tax code fairer; corruption at the IRS would more likely have been properly condemned and punished; the Little Sisters of the Poor would no doubt have been left alone to keep caring for the elderly instead of being forced into court for their survival; and so much more.

Abroad, the war on terrorism could have been waged with resolve, not reluctance; the Islamic State would have been taken seriously at its infancy and exterminated without restraint; the Iran nuclear deal would never have happened; Vladimir Putin's resurgent Russia would have been seen as the geopolitical threat it is, and likely would have been deterred before victimizing our ally Ukraine; even the situation in Syria may well have looked more positive than its current state of agony.

And humanity would have developed telepathy, the flying car and a miniature golf course with a windmill obstacle that never broke down.

[Unagi]

So if we had voted his man in, he thinks more of the things he wanted to happen would have happened.


Most frightening part of the what if, would be the state of the Supreme Court

[Holman]

Of course President Romney's focus on the Middle East seemed retrograde when we were all living in space colonies by the end of the Gore years.

[RunningMn9]

I heard about the property tax thing. Apparently there is an effect where NJ people move to towns en masse and eventually transform the community to resemble the voracious tax beasts here. The enemy is definitely ourselves here. Getting out of the blast radius for the general and pension issues is honestly my primary concern.

It's less sinister. You don't realize what you miss from NJ when you go to a lawless land like PA. Well, almost lawless it's against the law to buy beer unless it's a case - or to buy fireworks from all the fireworks stores. It's maddening.

In any case, NJ pays for a lot of shit. It's not all just grift.

A lot of NJ people move to PA thinking they are going to get that shit and not have to pay for it. Surprise! You just get to live in a lawless land where you can't buy beer and whiskey together, but you can buy guns and deli meats from the same counter.

It's gotten to the point now where I'm starting to hear talk of moving back from some people.

Oh and before I forget, remember during your exit plan that if you sell your house and move out of NJ, they hit you with an exit tax. It's the most absurd thing I've ever heard of. If you don't live in NJ at the end of the year, but you sold a house in NJ there is an out-of-state tax on that transaction. A friend moved to NC a couple of years ago and got stuck with it. It would have been cheaper for him to rent an apartment to maintain residency until the end of the year.

[LordMortis]

The hell?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/rus ... 198a6076d?

“If there is consent on both or all three or all four, however many are involved in the sex act, it’s perfectly fine, whatever it is. But if the left ever senses and smells that there’s no consent in part of the equation then here come the rape police. But consent is the magic key to the left.”

This is meant to be a criticism? A serious criticism of "the left"?

[Rip]

I heard about the property tax thing. Apparently there is an effect where NJ people move to towns en masse and eventually transform the community to resemble the voracious tax beasts here. The enemy is definitely ourselves here. Getting out of the blast radius for the general and pension issues is honestly my primary concern.

It's less sinister. You don't realize what you miss from NJ when you go to a lawless land like PA. Well, almost lawless it's against the law to buy beer unless it's a case - or to buy fireworks from all the fireworks stores. It's maddening.

In any case, NJ pays for a lot of shit. It's not all just grift.

A lot of NJ people move to PA thinking they are going to get that shit and not have to pay for it. Surprise! You just get to live in a lawless land where you can't buy beer and whiskey together, but you can buy guns and deli meats from the same counter.

It's gotten to the point now where I'm starting to hear talk of moving back from some people.

Oh and before I forget, remember during your exit plan that if you sell your house and move out of NJ, they hit you with an exit tax. It's the most absurd thing I've ever heard of. If you don't live in NJ at the end of the year, but you sold a house in NJ there is an out-of-state tax on that transaction. A friend moved to NC a couple of years ago and got stuck with it. It would have been cheaper for him to rent an apartment to maintain residency until the end of the year.

Sounds like a reason to sell your house and then move into a dump for a year (or as the politicians do just buy a dump and say you live there even though you don't) and then move and pay the higher tax on the dump.

[hepcat]

The hell?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/rus ... 198a6076d?

“If there is consent on both or all three or all four, however many are involved in the sex act, it’s perfectly fine, whatever it is. But if the left ever senses and smells that there’s no consent in part of the equation then here come the rape police. But consent is the magic key to the left.”

This is meant to be a criticism? A serious criticism of "the left"?

Sounds like Rush got hold of another bad batch of Viagra in the Dominican Republic.

[RunningMn9]

The hell?

I was about to congratulate Rush for being so progressive, and then he was Rush instead.

[Holman]

Rush is slipping. A couple of decades ago he would have said "the FEMINAZI Rape Police" without missing a beat.

Doesn't he remember that the Clintons are the whole reason he hit the big time?

[Isgrimnur]

Mike Pence answers 11-year-old girl's body image question with pivot to terrorism

WBNS anchor Scott Light asked Pence Thursday how he would respond to the girl, a Girl Scout who had recently visited the radio station, who told a staff member that Donald Trump's words and campaign commercials made her feel bad about looking at herself in the mirror.

"I would say to any one of my kids Donald Trump and I are committed to a safer and more prosperous future for their family," Pence responded. "The weak and feckless foreign policy that Hillary Clinton promises to continue has literally caused areas of the world to spin apart. The rise of terrorist threats that have inspired violence here at home. We've seen an erosion of law and order in our streets and we've seen opportunities and jobs evaporate and even leave Ohio and even leave this country. I would tell every kid that if Donald Trump and I have the chance to serve in the White House that we are going to work every day for a stronger, safer and more prosperous American."