Political Randomness

[GreenGoo]

So it looks like a plurality of Republicans prefer Trump over Ryan.

When asked in the latest Bloomberg Politics poll who should be the face of the party nationally in the event of a Hillary Clinton victory, likely voters who are or lean Republican splintered down a list of five options.

A plurality, 27 percent, picked vice presidential nominee Mike Pence. Trump got 24 percent, ahead of Texas Senator Ted Cruz at 19 percent, House Speaker Paul Ryan at 15 percent, and Ohio Governor John Kasich at 10 percent.

When asked which leader better represents their view what the Republican Party should stand for, 51 percent of likely voters who are or lean Republican picked Trump, while 33 percent picked Ryan and 15 percent said they weren’t sure.

So it's not the party that is insane, it's a significant portion of Americans.

[malchior]

That article misrepresents the major thrust of the Tribune's editorial, which is that this is not something that should be in the state constitution. I haven't read up fully on this to determine my vote (I've still got, like, 2 1/2 weeks left!), but as a general principle, I do have to wonder whether the state constitution is an appropriate place for budgeting issues.

It is hard to not notice that NJ and IL have similar problems. And having been in both places for a long-time they have similarish cultures (at least Chicago). I was thinking about moving there until I realized it wast just a substitute for NJs political issues. Both are racing for a collapse. It is just a matter of how bad the budgetary meteor hits and where it falls.

[LordMortis]

So it looks like a plurality of Republicans prefer Trump over Ryan.

When asked in the latest Bloomberg Politics poll who should be the face of the party nationally in the event of a Hillary Clinton victory, likely voters who are or lean Republican splintered down a list of five options.

A plurality, 27 percent, picked vice presidential nominee Mike Pence. Trump got 24 percent, ahead of Texas Senator Ted Cruz at 19 percent, House Speaker Paul Ryan at 15 percent, and Ohio Governor John Kasich at 10 percent.

When asked which leader better represents their view what the Republican Party should stand for, 51 percent of likely voters who are or lean Republican picked Trump, while 33 percent picked Ryan and 15 percent said they weren’t sure.

The aggregate support for Trump, Pence, Cruz, and Ryan as the representative figurehead is truly frightening.

[Isgrimnur]

Ohio

Ohio voters who were improperly removed from the rolls after not casting a ballot for several years will be allowed to vote in the November general election.

A federal appellate court ruled last month that Ohio's practice of occasionally canceling voter registrations after six years of inactivity was illegal. A U.S. District Court decision issued Wednesday night mandates that voters purged since Jan. 1, 2011 be allowed to cast provisional ballots.
...
At least 846,391 Ohio voter registrations were canceled between 2010 and 2014, according to the U.S. Election Assistance Commission. But it's possible the number is much greater because Ohio's 88 counties did not uniformly remove voters or report that action.
...
The federal "Motor Voter" law prohibits states from removing voters for failing to vote. But it also allows states to establish a supplemental process for removing voters who have moved without updating their addresses.

In Ohio, the secretary of state's office sent a notice to registered voters who hadn't vote in elections for a period of time, generally two years, or changed their address through the U.S. Postal Service asking them to confirm their registration.

If the voter did not respond to the notice or update voter registration information or did not vote or sign a petition within four years, the registration can be canceled.
...
Under Wednesday's resolution, purged voters will not be able to vote absentee by mail and will be informed they may cast a provisional ballot in-person during early voting or on Election Day. The resolution also calls for extra provisional ballots at polling places on hand on Election Day.

Wednesday's ruling settled the last of four lawsuits challenging Ohio's election procedures ahead of the November election. The ruling only applies to November's election.

[Isgrimnur]

Virginia

Voter registration in Virginia will resume immediately and continue until midnight Friday, a federal judge ordered Thursday.

Judge Claude M. Hilton of U.S. District Court in Alexandria decided to extend registration after the state elections website crashed on Monday, the last day for Virginians to get on the rolls.

A civil rights group sued on behalf of Kathy and Michael Kern, a Charlottesville couple who tried and failed multiple times Sunday and Monday to register. Two nonprofit groups involved in voter-registration drives — New Virginia Majority Education Fund and Virginia Civic Engagement Table — also were plaintiffs.
...
The plaintiffs and the state government agreed that voting should be allowed until 11:59 p.m. Monday to account for both the two days of outages and any similar problems in the next few days, as well as the time it will take to notify voters of the extension.

But Hilton deemed that extension would be too lengthy.

“I think you’re entitled to some relief,” Hilton said, but added, “I believe that you’re asking for too much time.” An extension through Friday night, he said, “more than makes up for” the two days of major technical failures.

[Isgrimnur]

And Duterte is at it again.

"I've realigned myself in your ideological flow and maybe I will also go to Russia to talk to (President Vladimir) Putin and tell him that there are three of us against the world - China, Philippines and Russia. It's the only way," he added.

CNN

"We have not received any requests from officials to change our alliance," Deputy White House Press Secretary Eric Schultz told reports aboard Air Force One Thursday.
...
Chinese President Xi Jingping welcomed Duterte with full military honors at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing Thursday.

He called the two countries "neighbors across the sea" and said they'd agreed to achieve "full improvement" in bilateral ties, state media reported.

The two leaders signed some 13 bilateral deals including pacts on trade, investment, tourism, crime and drug prohibition, according to China's state news agency Xinhua.

However, there was no specific agreement about the South China Sea, where the two have overlapping maritime claims. They agreed to address the matter through talks, according to Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Liu Zhenmin.

Jeff may want to update his retirement plans.

[Zarathud]

So did you New Jersey residents know Chris Christie raised the gas tax by 23 cents per gallon last week but eliminated the New Jersey estate tax (but maybe not the state inheritance tax) in 2018?

[malchior]

So did you New Jersey residents know Chris Christie raised the gas tax by 23 cents per gallon last week but eliminated the New Jersey estate tax (but maybe not the state inheritance tax) in 2018?

Painfully aware. There are several posts above about how that gas tax also cuts the sales tax and made a bad fiscal situation worse. All the credit rating agencies are poised to downgrade the State *again*.

[Isgrimnur]

Duterte flip flops:

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte said Friday he did not mean he would cut off ties with the United States when he said in China that he was separating from the U.S., adding it’s in his country’s best interest to stay with America.

Despite the clarification, the tough-talking president kept up on his tirades against the U.S., saying in a late-night speech in his southern hometown of Davao city that he would never travel to America “in this lifetime.”
...
Duterte, however, said in an arrival speech in Davao that he was not severing ties with his country’s treaty ally that is home to a large number of Filipino expatriates.

“When you say severance of ties, you cut the diplomatic relations. I cannot do that. Why? It’s to the best interest of my country that we maintain that relationship,” Duterte said, adding that Filipinos were not ready to embrace such an option.

What he meant by his remarks in China, Duterte said, was ending a Philippine foreign policy that closely leaned toward the U.S.
...
Former Philippine Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario, who brought the triumphant arbitration case against China over the disputes, said Duterte’s shift from Washington to Beijing should be regarded “a national tragedy.”

[Enough]

Pardon me, have you by chance seen our nation's constitution?

Politicians in Kyrgyzstan have lost the country’s constitution.

It emerged during a debate over planned changes to the law that nobody in the central Asian country knew where the original document was.

The most recent version of the constitution was approved by referendum in June 2010, when changes were made to give more authority to parliament and diminish the power of the president.

On 19 October members of the Kyrgyz parliament queried the exact location of the original copy of the document during a debate on whether to allow another referendum to take place in December, which could result in the consistution being amended again.

A good reminder things could always be worse.

[Max Peck]

Does Senator (Governor?) Tim Tebow strike your fancy? Tebow 2024, maybe?

[LordMortis]

/wonders if he can stay up late enough to find Tru TV so he can watch the Adam Ruins Everything Election Special tonight.

It looks really good.

[gilraen]

Does Senator (Governor?) Tim Tebow strike your fancy? Tebow 2024, maybe?

Yes, because we need more ultra-religious wingnuts in politics.

[El Guapo]

Hey, all he does is win.

[Isgrimnur]

Saw a sign just up the road from my neighborhood advocating voting a straight ticket. Republican, of course.

[Rip]

Saw a sign just up the road from my neighborhood advocating voting a straight ticket. Republican, of course.

In Texas? From what I'm hearing doing so may not register a vote for Trump. Any who do should be sure to check that doing so results in voting for all the people you want.

[Max Peck]

Today I learned that during the 1992 presidential campaign, Bush's deputy campaign manager (Mary Matalin) was dating Clinton's chief strategist (James Carville). The times, they've been a-changing -- I can't imagine how that sort of cross-campaign relationship could fly today.

[Holman]

Today I learned that during the 1992 presidential campaign, Bush's deputy campaign manager (Mary Matalin) was dating Clinton's chief strategist (James Carville). The times, they've been a-changing -- I can't imagine how that sort of cross-campaign relationship could fly today.

I remember. At the time it was considered crazy and improbable, and the joke was about "sleeping with the enemy." Things were pretty dramatically partisan, although GHWB vs Clinton wasn't quite yet a blood sport.

Wikipedia tells me that Matalin is now a Libertarian rather than a Republican.

[PLW]

Wikipedia tells me that Matalin is now a Libertarian rather than a Republican.

Aren't we all?

[El Guapo]

Today I learned that during the 1992 presidential campaign, Bush's deputy campaign manager (Mary Matalin) was dating Clinton's chief strategist (James Carville). The times, they've been a-changing -- I can't imagine how that sort of cross-campaign relationship could fly today.

Yes, and they subsequently (and are still) married.

[Grifman]

Saw a sign just up the road from my neighborhood advocating voting a straight ticket. Republican, of course.

In Texas? From what I'm hearing doing so may not register a vote for Trump. Any who do should be sure to check that doing so results in voting for all the people you want.

Bogus, the Texas Sec of State, a Republican, has denied the claim, saying they all seem to be due to user error. He also said that they get claims like this every election, but social media is "trumping" (my words) this up. You really need stop reading those "idiot right" websites that are notorious for this kind of crap.

[El Guapo]

Saw a sign just up the road from my neighborhood advocating voting a straight ticket. Republican, of course.

In Texas? From what I'm hearing doing so may not register a vote for Trump. Any who do should be sure to check that doing so results in voting for all the people you want.

Bogus, the Texas Sec of State, a Republican, has denied the claim, saying they all seem to be due to user error. He also said that they get claims like this every election, but social media is "trumping" (my words) this up. You really need stop reading those "idiot right" websites that are notorious for this kind of crap.

To be fair that does appear to have been the case with straight ticket voting in North Carolina, at least (that checking "straight ticket" would cast your vote for that party for every race *except* President / VP), before it was abolished before this election. So while that's not the case with Texas, it's possible that there's some genuine confusion about this.

Also the Texas Secretary of State is really named "Bogus"? That's...unfortunate.

[Defiant]

Also the Texas Secretary of State is really named "Bogus"? That's...unfortunate.

That name is indeed Bogus, Costello.

[El Guapo]

Also the Texas Secretary of State is really named "Bogus"? That's...unfortunate.

That name is indeed Bogus, Costello.

[Grifman]

Also the Texas Secretary of State is really named "Bogus"? That's...unfortunate.

That name is indeed Bogus, Costello.

'

The claim is bogus, not the Sec of State

[Isgrimnur]

His full name is Carlos Gullible Bogus.

[hepcat]

Sure beats Carlos Danger.

[gilraen]

Today I learned that during the 1992 presidential campaign, Bush's deputy campaign manager (Mary Matalin) was dating Clinton's chief strategist (James Carville). The times, they've been a-changing -- I can't imagine how that sort of cross-campaign relationship could fly today.

Yeah, there was one Real Time with Bill Maher episode where they actually appeared together. From their dynamic, I'm not sure how they can coexist without trying to strangle each other on a daily basis, but perhaps they have some very strict rules as to what conversations are allowed at home
When asked in a recent interview about Matalin's views on Trump, Carville was very quick to point out that "he doesn't speak for Mary Matalin". But he did confirm that she changed her voter registration to Libertarian.

[dbt1949]

I wish someone would hack and expose Trumph's tax returns.

[Holman]

I wish someone would hack and expose Trumph's tax returns.

It's very interesting that, even after he has openly admitted to the earlier expose (that he lived like a billionaire but paid no taxes for decades), he still hasn't released the returns.

This pretty much has to mean that the revelations still inside would wreck him completely.

[milo]

This pretty much has to mean that the revelations still inside would wreck him completely.

It just means that he sees no advantage to himself to releasing them. The tax returns kerfuffle hasn't hurt him with his supporters anyhow.

[Papa Smurph]

Voted yesterday afternoon, in Atlanta suburb. Line was about 30 minutes long. Poll worker said voting there was maybe 3 times as brisk as last presidential election. If that is correct, it is bad news for Trump. More voters generally means bad things for divisive candidates.

Voters in line also seemed diverse. Not all older white men. Several first time voters as well.

I wonder if Georgia will swing Democrat? That would sure shake things up around here.

[El Guapo]

Voted yesterday afternoon, in Atlanta suburb. Line was about 30 minutes long. Poll worker said voting there was maybe 3 times as brisk as last presidential election. If that is correct, it is bad news for Trump. More voters generally means bad things for divisive candidates.

Voters in line also seemed diverse. Not all older white men. Several first time voters as well.

I wonder if Georgia will swing Democrat? That would sure shake things up around here.

Clinton's down by ~ 3 - 4 points on average in Georgia polls, I think. She's within striking distance (538 gives her ~ 30% chance there, last time I checked), but will still probably lose.

I also think IIRC that democrats tend to use early voting more, though I'm not 100% sure of that.

[Defiant]

I also think IIRC that democrats tend to use early voting more, though I'm not 100% sure of that.

Democrats tend to do more in-person early voting, while Republicans tend to do more mail-in balloting (probably because of their support among voters serving in the military)

[Grifman]

Does Senator (Governor?) Tim Tebow strike your fancy? Tebow 2024, maybe?

Yes, because we need more ultra-religious wingnuts in politics.

He was invited to speak at this summer’s Republican National Convention, but passed on the opportunity. He told me that he doesn’t like the tenor of this year’s Presidential campaign. “It’s just disappointing that so much has to be about the negativity—but I’m not in that world yet,” he said.

“I’d do it if I could share a message of faith, hope, and love, share a message of ‘We are all created equal’—literally, everyone is created equal. God created us equal, but in our own unique way, in love, by love, and for love, to do amazing things,” he said. “When you understand that basic concept and principle, it totally transforms how you think of people and treat people. Every single person, no matter where they are from, what their ethnicity, what their socioeconomic status is, God created them for a purpose.”

These are, not surprisingly, themes that Tebow also touches on in his new book, which is largely about being humbled. “I wrote this book to try to be an encouragement,” he told me. “Yeah, life is hard, but it’s worth it.” In a passage about getting cut by the New England Patriots, Tebow writes, “I felt cornered by regret and its companion, shame. In the spirit of transparency, I’ll say I was embarrassed. I struggled to humble myself and not wallow in the cesspool of conflicting and raw emotions.”

Doesn't sound like an ultra-religious wingnut to me, maybe you're just an ultra secular wingnut instead

[GreenGoo]

The only thing I know about Tebow is that God comes out of his mouth every second word, and he didn't cut it in the NFL.

Assuming he's not going to govern based on his failed NFL experience, I'm guessing God is going to show him the way. Whether that's God's love or God's anger, hopefully we never get a chance to find out. I mean, what possible qualifications could he have for the job? He's famous and says God a lot so Godly people like him?

[stessier]

I mean, what possible qualifications could he have for the job?

He's charismatic, views life from a positive outlook, and has empathy. You're right - too qualified by far.

(This is not an endorsement of Tebow, but suggesting a religious bent or lack of political experience automatically rules someone out is ridiculous.)

[Grifman]

The only thing I know about Tebow is that God comes out of his mouth every second word, and he didn't cut it in the NFL.

Assuming he's not going to govern based on his failed NFL experience, I'm guessing God is going to show him the way. Whether that's God's love or God's anger, hopefully we never get a chance to find out. I mean, what possible qualifications could he have for the job? He's famous and says God a lot so Godly people like him?

I'm not saying he's qualified for a higher office, but you have to start somewhere. I wouldn't support him if I could vote in Florida if he ran for governor, but if he started out in the state house, that's certainly reasonable. If he were to study a position, start out as in a lower office, you learn along the way. This is not an endorsement by any means as I don't know any of his positions. I just think dismissing him as an ultra-religious fanatic in unfair. I see his unwillingness to be drafted in the Republican presidential campaign as a positive though.

[GreenGoo]

I mean, what possible qualifications could he have for the job?

He's charismatic, views life from a positive outlook, and has empathy. You're right - too qualified by far.

(This is not an endorsement of Tebow, but suggesting a religious bent or lack of political experience automatically rules someone out is ridiculous.)

No offense, but that's what I look for in friends, not someone doing the thankless job of governance.

While getting elected is a popularity contest, and keeping the job is too, almost zero of it matters in terms of doing the job. This is probably why I differ slightly in my opinion of Clinton than others. She has an enormous amount of political experience. Moreso for having been put through the ringer so many times by partisan hacks.

The idea that being popular (either for a positive or negative outlook) is a qualification for governance is more ridiculous than the idea that having relevant work experience is.

Otherwise the Drumpf thread wouldn't be 200+ pages long. Sure, Reagan might not have had any experience when he became governor, but at least he wasn't a child in his twenties who thinks God will provide the answers, because he sure as hell isn't old enough or have enough experience otherwise.

In any case, I want people in jobs they can do, not jobs they think they can do based on nothing but a positive outlook.

[Holman]

Otherwise the Drumpf thread wouldn't be 200+ pages long. Sure, Reagan might not have had any experience when he became governor, but at least he wasn't a child in his twenties who thinks God will provide the answers, because he sure as hell isn't old enough or have enough experience otherwise.

Even Reagan had political experience, and he definitely had a political identity.

He was VP and then President of the Screen Actors Guild during the late 1940's and all of the 1950's, a period of Hollywood labor disputes and the close involvement of the SAG with political issues in Washington (including especially the Red Scare and McCarthy's blacklist, which Reagan abetted). He also involved himself in most of other political controversies that rocked the 1950's. By the time he ran for Governor, he was probably the most visible conservative activist on the American scene.