Max Peck wrote: Fri Nov 08, 2024 12:07 pm
I vote "Yes" for Trumponomics over Trumponics. And call dibs on Trumpariffs™ if/when the new tariffs happen (even if he uses them to slap at Canada and Mexico instead of China).
Trumponomics relates to his economics
Trumponics relates to his hydroponics
Zarathud wrote: Fri Nov 08, 2024 2:11 am
You are so cute thinking Trump will be restrained. That’s wishful thinking. He’ll cut deals based on his narcissistic ego. Anyone he deals with can be backstabbed at any time for perceived gain. Ask Mike Pence.
Dunno if you were speaking to me, but I never stated otherwise. Just laying out some observations. We're all in the same handbasket.
I mean, I agree - it's not going to be as bad as the worst-case scenarios that people are floating. He's not going to be able to pull off all 93 of his promises. But that doesn't mean it's not going to be horrible, especially for the groups that are under his crosshairs (which is technically anyone not a straight white Christian male, although some are further down the list than others.)
People who aren't in one of those affected groups shouldn't be telling people what to worry about.
Victoria Raverna wrote: Fri Nov 08, 2024 8:33 pm
Don't worry too much. The world survived 4 years of Trump before. It'll survive another 4 years.
It is not going to be as bad as what people feared.
Survival is a low bar.
What a weird thing for you to say. Like so weird.
That message could be applied to every single thing you have posted in the last year.
"Don't worry too much, VR. The world will survive this attack on Gaza."
I won't be. It's fair to do so, but I think it's counterproductive. If people are constantly rubbing their noses in it (deservedly!), it will become a point of pride to deny it and lash out. If people are going to wake up, they need to realize the impact on their own, without already being conditioned to deny it.
How many chances to they get to wake up on their own? At some point you have to force them out of bed or just leave them.
God knows I'm not going to want to bail out someone who voted their own job away or shelter someone who voted for their own deportation. My resources are best used on someone who didn't' choose to let the world burn.
I'm not talking about bailing them out. In a year when prices are so high that they can't buy food, they'll look for answers. If we've already taken the real answer and turned it into something that they see as a point of pride to deny, they'll find a different answer, and never see the real one.
As long as both sides keep hanging onto spite and revenge as a way to 'get back at' the people who screwed them over, this will never end. We've got that cycle now - we win and treat them like shit, then they win and treat us like shit, then we win... It's getting us nowhere.
I have much less faith in people than you.
I think that the people who wanted king Trump will never see the real answer. Sure they might look for different answers but not the real one.
Especially when the real answer IS "hey. You did this and got what you wanted". As you say, their pride won't let them take blame.
No matter what Trump does, he wouldn't have been able to do anything if the majority of the people didn't want it in the first place.
Trump has no restraints. He purged everyone who could oppose him.
He’s the Krampus of Christmas future. The U.S. consumer is going to freak out over the price increases.
"A lie can run round the world before the truth has got its boots on." -Terry Pratchett, The Truth "The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to those who think they've found it." -Terry Pratchett, Monstrous Regiment
Alternatively, they're going to be grateful to pay higher prices because jackbooted thugs didn't kick down their door and drag them (or their family members) off to a camp in Texas.
Zarathud wrote: Mon Nov 25, 2024 9:46 pm
Trump has no restraints. He purged everyone who could oppose him.
He’s the Krampus of Christmas future. The U.S. consumer is going to freak out over the price increases.
No restraints, but easily bribed.
He likes the idea of tariffs because they feel like a cool gimmick that will allow him to cut taxes, which he hates because he's a dumb rich guy.
When the actually smart rich guys show him that he has much more to (personally) gain from not wrecking the economy with tariffs, tariffs won't seem so cool to him.
Remember that the whole of Trumpian governing philosophy is that he is very stupid and very easily flattered.
Blackhawk wrote: Mon Nov 25, 2024 9:24 pm
Like they did with the tariffs on China last time?
The dirty secret is that trump's tariffs on China were beneficial overall, despite being clumsily implemented. Remember that Biden quietly kept most of them in place and improved their focus. Meanwhile, China has reduced its share of exports to the US from around 40% to less than 20%, so they're well positioned for the next round.
A 25% tariff on Canada is very bad news for both countries. And a massive breach of a predicting trade agreement trump himself signed!
It’s worse news for Canada because they aren’t popular with India and China as well.
To pretend there is an immigration and drug issue is just insanity. More refugees use the US as a transit point to get to Canada than use Canada to get into the US.
For starters Canada has a deficit with the US in terms of trade, but taxing its $300 billion in exports to the Us at 25% would cripple them and badly damage us.
I think this is more to do with the Maga dream of leveraging the north west passage out of Canadian hands while simultaneously shaking Denmark down for Greenland.
Yeah, it's a black eye. Canada exports many resources to the U.S. Oil, Lumber, Metals, even electricity. This will end up costing the U.S in the end and will make prices higher in both countries. Thanks Trump.
It's a hardball tactic called escalating to de-escalate. You can do that with impunity when you have the upper hand and you aren't constrained by friendship (or the best interests of your own peasants). Canada and Mexico will both kiss the ring to avoid this, and they'll kiss more than that to reverse it. Europe will come around, too. Exactly what he's going to extort from each partner, IDK. I'm just not diabolical enough to know what I could gain by beating up Canada.
Rumpy wrote: Tue Nov 26, 2024 2:28 am
Yeah, it's a black eye. Canada exports many resources to the U.S. Oil, Lumber, Metals, even electricity. This will end up costing the U.S in the end and will make prices higher in both countries. Thanks Trump.
Maga wants the north west passage.
Control over this and Greenland would mean US dominance in the region and the ability to tax non US cargo. While lumbering the Canadians with the search and rescue costs for their section which they’ll be forced to call international waters despite it being clearly theirs.
waitingtoconnect wrote: Tue Nov 26, 2024 1:38 am
A 25% tariff on Canada is very bad news for both countries. And a massive breach of a predicting trade agreement trump himself signed!
This. Only the market is up pretty substantially pre-market. Nuts. N-V-T-S. Nuts.
Kraken wrote: Tue Nov 26, 2024 2:33 am
It's a hardball tactic called escalating to de-escalate. You can do that with impunity when you have the upper hand and you aren't constrained by friendship (or the best interests of your own peasants). Canada and Mexico will both kiss the ring to avoid this, and they'll kiss more than that to reverse it. Europe will come around, too. Exactly what he's going to extort from each partner, IDK. I'm just not diabolical enough to know what I could gain by beating up Canada.
But for how long? And the moment you are forced to kiss the ring and aren't doing because that is your affinity for the wearer is the moment you start looking for knives or an escape route. It's like we watched Game of Thrones and wanted to be Tywinn, right down to the (lack of) control of money to keep his power. Only he laughs at "always pays their debts."
I hope his access to information we don't get is what motivates this and he's right. And if so, he ought to publish it. If he's got something going on and Canada and Mexico are the security threats he claims, then show don't tell and we'll talk about accepting the pain that goes along with it.
Kraken wrote: Tue Nov 26, 2024 2:33 am
It's a hardball tactic called escalating to de-escalate. You can do that with impunity when you have the upper hand and you aren't constrained by friendship (or the best interests of your own peasants). Canada and Mexico will both kiss the ring to avoid this, and they'll kiss more than that to reverse it. Europe will come around, too. Exactly what he's going to extort from each partner, IDK. I'm just not diabolical enough to know what I could gain by beating up Canada.
This will only work in the short term, and will cause Canada and Mexico to distance themselves from the US economy (as much as is possible anyway) in the same way that European politics has started to remove reliance on the US on world subjects.
Yes it will hurt like hell, and will have no benefit long term for the US, but at least everyone will not lean so heavily on the US, which is no longer a trustworthy trade or political partner.
Shrug. I'll be dead long before the ramifications fully play out, but at least I'll get to experience all the pain. Good luck everyone.
Rumpy wrote: Tue Nov 26, 2024 2:28 am
Yeah, it's a black eye. Canada exports many resources to the U.S. Oil, Lumber, Metals, even electricity. This will end up costing the U.S in the end and will make prices higher in both countries. Thanks Trump.
Maga wants the north west passage.
They can use it, they just can't have it. You don't want to piss off your friendly neighbours.
GreenGoo wrote: Tue Nov 26, 2024 12:55 pm
This will only work in the short term, and will cause Canada and Mexico to distance themselves from the US economy (as much as is possible anyway) in the same way that European politics has started to remove reliance on the US on world subjects.
Yes, exactly. Short term gain, but by putting the squeeze on Canadians, Americans will find themselves paying way more for our products. EVs will get way more expensive, as we mine the metals needed for those batteries. And that's just one example. That's the thing about world economics. You change something, it might end up hurting you way more in the end when it comes back to you. Americans won't be getting a free pass like some might be thinking.
I suspect that in the future we might make a trade deal with Australia and New Zealand. There's been talk of an ANZAC trade deal for years.
My concern is that we have no politicians alive who have ever had to deal with a hostile or even aggressive US. The liberals won't know how to play hardball and the current conservatives want to suck his drumpfiness.
We are really going to struggle for years to deal with this. That doesn't mean it's a net benefit for the US however. That's something drumpf is incapable of understanding. Zero sum is not how the world works.
Yeah, exactly. It's like tunnel vision. I think he's only seeing directly what's in front of him without caring for the wider-scale implications of his gameplan.
Blackhawk wrote: Tue Nov 26, 2024 4:14 pm
Trump doesn't have friendly neighbors. He has subservient neighbors, or he has adversaries.
I meant friendly neighbors as in Canada. Canada generally isn't aggressive and in fact I feel like we generally don't like confrontation. But we've had your backs in war plenty of times.
Or growing things without soil