Fellowship of the Ring (WW) - Conclusion

[Chaosraven]

We have a possible 8 weeds to keep out specials hidden.

What?

5 hobbits
3 unpowered Free People.

8 POSSIBLE weeds

I don't know what Semaj was and I'm not the analyze what he could be to the nth degree types.

Semaj had to have been Free Folk, and 50% chance he was one of the Warriors.
33% chance he was either Gandalf or Aragorn.

[theohall]

We have a possible 8 weeds to keep out specials hidden.

What?

5 hobbits
3 unpowered Free People.

8 POSSIBLE weeds

I don't know what Semaj was and I'm not the analyze what he could be to the nth degree types.

Semaj had to have been Free Folk, and 50% chance he was one of the Warriors.
33% chance he was either Gandalf or Aragorn.

Or Boromir, unless you know something we don't.

[Remus West]

you know what, I'm not going to bother arguing this you, if you really can't understand the simple premise of "IF THEY DO TARGET A FREE FOLK"

I understand the premise. I also understand that it is worthless since they do not get to pick "target Hobbit" or "target Free People". The Witchking chooses his target from the full group which means talking about what happens if they pick from only a single subgroup is meaningless.

[Remus West]

We have a possible 8 weeds to keep out specials hidden.

What?

5 hobbits
3 unpowered Free People.

8 POSSIBLE weeds

I don't know what Semaj was and I'm not the analyze what he could be to the nth degree types.

Semaj had to have been Free Folk, and 50% chance he was one of the Warriors.
33% chance he was either Gandalf or Aragorn.

Or Boromir, unless you know something we don't.

I believe that covers the missing 17% from what Chaosraven posted. He did not overlook Boromir but merely focused on the ones we care about losing. Boromir is already lost for our win conditions. Hell, it would be best for us if Semaj was Boromir or if Boromir were corrupted last night since that would either remove him or show him as the servant he is to Gandalf's scan rather than leaving the old boy guessing if he scans a Free People.

[Unagi]

If they manage to hit a free folk who's also a wizard, the chances of them hitting Gandalf go up dramatically.

[Unagi]

Boromir is already lost for our win conditions. Hell, it would be best for us if Semaj was Boromir or if Boromir were corrupted last night since that would either remove him or show him as the servant he is to Gandalf's scan rather than leaving the old boy guessing if he scans a Free People.

I thought he counted toward our population count - but just won, when the Servants won.

Right?

[theohall]

Boromir is already lost for our win conditions. Hell, it would be best for us if Semaj was Boromir or if Boromir were corrupted last night since that would either remove him or show him as the servant he is to Gandalf's scan rather than leaving the old boy guessing if he scans a Free People.

I thought he counted toward our population count - but just won, when the Servants won.

Right?

Boromir counts as a Free Person in terms of needing Free People to hunt some orc. Once corrupted, though, he doesn't count for this purpose. Other than that, Boromir only wins with the Servants.

[Arcanis]

We have a possible 8 weeds to keep out specials hidden.

What?

5 hobbits
3 unpowered Free People.

8 POSSIBLE weeds

I don't know what Semaj was and I'm not the analyze what he could be to the nth degree types.

Semaj had to have been Free Folk, and 50% chance he was one of the Warriors.
33% chance he was either Gandalf or Aragorn.

Or Boromir, unless you know something we don't.

I believe that covers the missing 17% from what Chaosraven posted. He did not overlook Boromir but merely focused on the ones we care about losing. Boromir is already lost for our win conditions. Hell, it would be best for us if Semaj was Boromir or if Boromir were corrupted last night since that would either remove him or show him as the servant he is to Gandalf's scan rather than leaving the old boy guessing if he scans a Free People.

the 50 and 33 are separate %.

I think the best choice right now is to take a change and guess at who the WK is and try to eliminate him. The worst case is that we out a special but the odds of that happening are still relatively small compared to intentionally thinning out the pool by free people getting scouted.

[theohall]

We have a possible 8 weeds to keep out specials hidden.

What?

5 hobbits
3 unpowered Free People.

8 POSSIBLE weeds

I don't know what Semaj was and I'm not the analyze what he could be to the nth degree types.

Semaj had to have been Free Folk, and 50% chance he was one of the Warriors.
33% chance he was either Gandalf or Aragorn.

Or Boromir, unless you know something we don't.

I believe that covers the missing 17% from what Chaosraven posted. He did not overlook Boromir but merely focused on the ones we care about losing. Boromir is already lost for our win conditions. Hell, it would be best for us if Semaj was Boromir or if Boromir were corrupted last night since that would either remove him or show him as the servant he is to Gandalf's scan rather than leaving the old boy guessing if he scans a Free People.

the 50 and 33 are separate %.

I think the best choice right now is to take a change and guess at who the WK is and try to eliminate him. The worst case is that we out a special but the odds of that happening are still relatively small compared to intentionally thinning out the pool by free people getting scouted.

++

[Grundbegriff]

If they manage to hit a free folk who's also a wizard, the chances of them hitting Gandalf go up dramatically.

Brilliant!

[Unagi]

Boromir is already lost for our win conditions. Hell, it would be best for us if Semaj was Boromir or if Boromir were corrupted last night since that would either remove him or show him as the servant he is to Gandalf's scan rather than leaving the old boy guessing if he scans a Free People.

I thought he counted toward our population count - but just won, when the Servants won.
Right?

Boromir counts as a Free Person in terms of needing Free People to hunt some orc. Once corrupted, though, he doesn't count for this purpose. Other than that, Boromir only wins with the Servants.

Actually, yeah - I keep thinking this game can end when our numbers are down. Hard to shake that instinct. But, yes - Boromir will likely vote in a manner to help the servants if the chance presents itself, and as such - is no help to our cause ever really, except in the hunt-orc way (and the "here, kill this Free Person" way too)
Anyhow, he's entirely not like a sorcerer, who may even get himself killed in order to hurt "the numbers". So, yeah - nevermind my whole 'But he "counts" as one of us' thing

[redrun]

See, much like Austins game with the hidden Masons, this game has the 3 Warriors... LEGOLAS who can shoot somebody, EOWYN who scans for the Witchking and kills him if found, and uh... Uh...

It would be pretty funny if tomorrow, Semaj came back in the game as Gandalf the White or something...

-- I like this idea... What skill should Gandalf the White have?

[Unagi]

See, much like Austins game with the hidden Masons, this game has the 3 Warriors... LEGOLAS who can shoot somebody, EOWYN who scans for the Witchking and kills him if found, and uh... Uh...

It would be pretty funny if tomorrow, Semaj came back in the game as Gandalf the White or something...

-- I like this idea... What skill should Gandalf the White have?

The way I was thinking was that Gandalf the White is only made if Gandalf the Grey is actually 'killed' over the Journey phase.

Gandalf the White could be killed again (for keeps). He would be immune to WK corruption, but could not be passed the ring.

something like that.

[Remus West]

So it seems that we will be taking a shot at finding one of the Servants since none of the FP have stepped forward. To that end,
 tru1cy 
 

I have no idea what he is now and will likely have no better idea what he is or what his thinking is 5 game days from now so if we are taking a shot in the dark I prefer to eliminate the one who is most likely to remain in the dark.

[tru1cy]

I hate to be voted out, but I'm one of the free people with no special role , so if it's the will of the Fellowship I will gladly scout.

 tru1cy 
 


You will all miss my snazzy dwarf beard

[stessier]

I wish you hadn't said that tru1cy. It completely changes what we can learn from this vote.

[Arcanis]

I hate to be voted out, but I'm one of the free people with no special role , so if it's the will of the Fellowship I will gladly scout.

 tru1cy 
 


You will all miss my snazzy dwarf beard

Noble self sacrifice or ploy hoping to get off the hook???

I'm leaning toward self sacrifice right now but would like to hear some others weigh in before i cast such a vote.

[stessier]

Noble self sacrifice or ploy hoping to get off the hook???

How would it get him off the hook?

[theohall]

Noble self sacrifice or ploy hoping to get off the hook???

How would it get him off the hook?

By folks withdrawing their vote.

[Arcanis]

Noble self sacrifice or ploy hoping to get off the hook???

How would it get him off the hook?

People take him serious and go elsewhere to find a Servant. Not likely but i try to think of every possibility if i can. I know i tend to think in an unorthodox style and that is the kind of move i would pull.

[stessier]

Noble self sacrifice or ploy hoping to get off the hook???

How would it get him off the hook?

By folks withdrawing their vote.

Why would folks withdraw a vote on someone susceptible to conversion when they state they have no powers?

[Grundbegriff]

I hate to be voted out, but I'm one of the free people with no special role

Since you put it that way (with outage and all), I think this is probably the wise path today, even if we decide to target evil tomorrow.

Besides, it has been a while-- a very long while-- since we've voted you out early. So I'm confident you won't take it the wrong way.

 tru1cy 
 

[Scoop20906]

I'm against the Self-Sacrifice plan.

 Remus West 
 

[Grundbegriff]

Exactly. By default or intent, tru1cy has kicked off today's plan of action. He has prompted us to follow Path Two.

[Unagi]

I wish you hadn't said that tru1cy. It completely changes what we can learn from this vote.

In my notes, I have it that he basically already said it, and Grund (I little strange, if you ask me) seemed to not want to do it - but then made a plan to ask people to do what tru1cy, in effect, had already done.


Here - look.


Also, does anyone else feel that Chaos' tendency to keep dividing the Hobbits and the Freepeople is a signal to a partner of some sorts? Just a thought - wonder if others had thought it.

[Scoop20906]

Also, does anyone else feel that Chaos' tendency to keep dividing the Hobbits and the Freepeople is a signal to a partner of some sorts? Just a thought - wonder if others had thought it.

No.

[Grundbegriff]

I'm against the Self-Sacrifice plan.

 Remus West 
 

Maybe Remus is evil. But do you have some reason to think so? If not, then offing the volunteer is clearly the best path for protecting those we wish to protect.

(Anything else looks as if you're poking around for more outage. I trust you're not.)

Remember: the name of this game isn't "eliminate every evildoer"; the name of this game is "maintain enough of an advantage that so that a pure ringbearer can catch the ball at the final Hail Meriadoc pass.

[stessier]

I wish you hadn't said that tru1cy. It completely changes what we can learn from this vote.

In my notes, I have it that he basically already said it, and Grund (I little strange, if you ask me) seemed to not want to do it - but then made a plan to ask people to do what tru1cy, in effect, had already done.


Here - look.

I think that first "send me to scout" could have meant anything. A Hobbit, for instance, could have said it thinking his revealing big, hairy feet would save him.

You're really hung up on Chaos, aren't you?

[stessier]

I'm against the Self-Sacrifice plan.

 Remus West 
 

Why?

[Remus West]

I'm against the Self-Sacrifice plan.

 Remus West 
 

So why vote for me? Simply because you don't like the fact that tru1cy self outed? Or did you feel that my placing the first vote on him with no way to know his upcoming claim was my attempt to forward the plan when in fact I voted for tru1cy based off the very idea that we were going to be trying to find one of the servants.

[stessier]

So why vote for me?

Wrong question. Killing you, without question, is always fun.

Now why is he against the self sacrifice plan if far more interesting.

[redrun]

The chance of the Witchking hitting Aragorn or Gandalf remains the same regardless of who we send on the scouting mission. 1/6. There will be twelve players tonight regardless of who we send scouting. So while the pool of free people is reduced if we send one of them, the actual pool for the WK to rummage through is not. Overall the WK's odds go down by sending a free person scouting as the number of "success" players for him is reduced. Right now there are 5 Free People. We send a Hobbit scouting then there will be a 5/12 chance of his corrupting one of them. We send one of them scouting and there is only a 1/3 chance. That is a reduction of his managing ANY corruption of approximately 9%.

-- Thinking out loud:

Gollum. Searches for ringbearer - doesn't matter who goes on the lynch, the only info that helps Gollum is hobbit/non-hobbit for the living.

Scout: Who do we protect via self_choosen scouts? Gandolf/Aragorn/Frodo. We also keep folks from having to announce hobbit/free people. We lower the risk of corruption. I worry about losing all the free people. I want to buy Gandolf some time to scan. I'm not comfortable with the idea of giving up three free people over the next three turns. Buy us a turn now, yes, see what tomorrow brings - that I could see doing. See what we learned next turn and go from there.

I understand the 'use them before we lose them or they get corrupted' idea behind sending out the free people - but in doing so we're ensure that there is chance for corruption/kill via not hunting evil. Three days in a row seems too much. Given that I don't have anyone to send forward as a scout today I agree that a self_choosen scout might be our best option for this day. I think this method becomes less useful as the days pass, and that hobbits will need to help carry the load.

[Grundbegriff]

I'm not comfortable with the idea of giving up three free people over the next three turns. Buy us a turn now, yes, see what tomorrow brings - that I could see doing. See what we learned next turn and go from there.

I understand the 'use them before we lose them or they get corrupted' idea behind sending out the free people - but in doing so we're ensure that there is chance for corruption/kill via not hunting evil. Three days in a row seems too much. Given that I don't have anyone to send forward as a scout today I agree that a self_choosen scout might be our best option for this day. I think this method becomes less useful as the days pass, and that hobbits will need to help carry the load.

Agreed on all points. So tru1cy's your man, given that he has already stepped forward to put his axe on the line.

[Remus West]

I understand the 'use them before we lose them or they get corrupted' idea behind sending out the free people - but in doing so we're ensure that there is chance for corruption/kill via not hunting evil. Three days in a row seems too much. Given that I don't have anyone to send forward as a scout today I agree that a self_choosen scout might be our best option for this day. I think this method becomes less useful as the days pass, and that hobbits will need to help carry the load.

I am in no way, nor have I been, in favor of preplanning for three days. Information changes day to day and we need to change with it. I have been discussing only what we might do today. Perhaps tomorrow Gandalf can tell us something or we need to free a hobbit (and thus will have a known) or someone pokes an innocent......tons of possible reasons why we would not again look for a sacrificial free person.

[theohall]

We need free people to hunt orc, so we can't just send free people as scouts. At least 2 hobbits will need to scout at some point. I am ok with

 tru1cy 
 

[Lagom Lite]

VOTE COUNT

Against Newcastle (2): Unagi, Brendan
Against Remus West (1): Scoop20906
Against Scoop20906 (2): stessier, Arcanis
Against Unagi (1): Newcastle
Against tru1cy (4): Remus West, tru1cy, Grundbegriff, theohall

No vote registered: Isgrimnur, Chaosraven, redrun

Majority is 7.



Let me know if I've missed something.

[Newcastle]

I hate to be voted out, but I'm one of the free people with no special role

Since you put it that way (with outage and all), I think this is probably the wise path today, even if we decide to target evil tomorrow.

Besides, it has been a while-- a very long while-- since we've voted you out early. So I'm confident you won't take it the wrong way.

 tru1cy 
 

agreed, though its a shame that he volunteered early and such simply because the prospects for data gathering. And I would also like to see the day play out some more.

[Unagi]

I think that first "send me to scout" could have meant anything. A Hobbit, for instance, could have said it thinking his revealing big, hairy feet would save him.

hmm. really.

[Newcastle]

 withdraw unagis 
 


probably will hop on the truicy train (unless a poke the innoncent moment comes up), i just want to give the day some more time to play out and see what develops. Nothing like information procurment.

[Unagi]

I've brought up a point that no one seems interested in. Stessier totally brushes it off.

I guess I should be happy that I didn't make Remus 'sad' again.

I think tru1cy will be today's scout - I'll wait a while (for all those reasons) before putting that vote down though.


So, stessier - why do you feel that tru1cy's earlier statement was totally unactionable, but now he went out and made it a fa de compli.

Is it totally meaningless that Grund replied to tru1cy's original 'I can be our scout' - with a brush off, but then built a plan about people stepping up.
For instance, would the servants want to know, in advance of engaging in "Plan 2", - someone (else, in addition to Tru1cy) that was a Warrior? Do they know who they killed ? (Lagom, do the servants get told the exact role of their Kill?) Was their hope that someone aside from tru1cy stepped up and said: "Well, I am a warrior - I suppose we can scout with me".