Octopus Overlords

El Guapo wrote: Fri May 15, 2020 12:37 pm Experts’ 7 best ideas on how to beat Covid-19 and save the economy.

Seems generally sensible.

I think you mean "Expert's 7 best ideas that will get ignored for the most part because nobody knows what the hell they're doing."

I do agree that "let people go outside" is pretty much a requirement at this point. Although, really, who *hasn't* been going outside?

NickAragua wrote: Fri May 15, 2020 1:09 pm

El Guapo wrote: Fri May 15, 2020 12:37 pm Experts’ 7 best ideas on how to beat Covid-19 and save the economy.

Seems generally sensible.

I think you mean "Expert's 7 best ideas that will get ignored for the most part because nobody knows what the hell they're doing."

I do agree that "let people go outside" is pretty much a requirement at this point. Although, really, who *hasn't* been going outside?

It's like when I close my eyes and imagine President Clinton responding to this.

El Guapo wrote: Fri May 15, 2020 1:29 pm

NickAragua wrote: Fri May 15, 2020 1:09 pm

El Guapo wrote: Fri May 15, 2020 12:37 pm Experts’ 7 best ideas on how to beat Covid-19 and save the economy.

Seems generally sensible.

I think you mean "Expert's 7 best ideas that will get ignored for the most part because nobody knows what the hell they're doing."

I do agree that "let people go outside" is pretty much a requirement at this point. Although, really, who *hasn't* been going outside?

It's like when I close my eyes and imagine President Clinton responding to this.

"My fellow Americans... ah apologize."

You know what, still better than what we've got now.

NickAragua wrote: Fri May 15, 2020 1:09 pmI do agree that "let people go outside" is pretty much a requirement at this point. Although, really, who *hasn't* been going outside?

This is what NJ is trying to grapple with right now - and people are broadly not understanding what the issues are. A person going outside is terrific. Thousands of people descending into a county park or a beach is a problem - particularly when you now consider they need bathroom access. Outdoor activities are ideal, but they invariably create scenarios where people are coming into close contact with one another and increasing risk.

Smoove_B wrote: Fri May 15, 2020 1:35 pm

NickAragua wrote: Fri May 15, 2020 1:09 pmI do agree that "let people go outside" is pretty much a requirement at this point. Although, really, who *hasn't* been going outside?

This is what NJ is trying to grapple with right now - and people are broadly not understanding what the issues are. A person going outside is terrific. Thousands of people descending into a county park or a beach is a problem - particularly when you now consider they need bathroom access. Outdoor activities are ideal, but they invariably create scenarios where people are coming into close contact with one another and increasing risk.

At the same time...like, how hard is this? If you're at a wide open beach with like 6 or 7 other people scattered across it, you're good. If it's Spring Break with thousands packed into a square mile of beach...don't go.

It's not difficult in theory. In practice, human behavior dictates outcomes. For example, kindly review what was happening at NJ parks over the last few weeks. So now we open bathrooms and we have to actively monitor them.

El Guapo wrote: Fri May 15, 2020 1:39 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Fri May 15, 2020 1:35 pm

NickAragua wrote: Fri May 15, 2020 1:09 pmI do agree that "let people go outside" is pretty much a requirement at this point. Although, really, who *hasn't* been going outside?

This is what NJ is trying to grapple with right now - and people are broadly not understanding what the issues are. A person going outside is terrific. Thousands of people descending into a county park or a beach is a problem - particularly when you now consider they need bathroom access. Outdoor activities are ideal, but they invariably create scenarios where people are coming into close contact with one another and increasing risk.

At the same time...like, how hard is this? If you're at a wide open beach with like 6 or 7 other people scattered across it, you're good. If it's Spring Break with thousands packed into a square mile of beach...don't go.

This sums up my thoughts on the matter:


Like, you and I know not to wade into a crowd of people when there's a respiratory illness going around. But most people don't.

I dont get why people cant enjoy their own yard but have to go to a park for the same thing. If you have a yard that is.

Daehawk wrote: Fri May 15, 2020 1:49 pm I dont get why people cant enjoy their own yard but have to go to a park for the same thing. If you have a yard that is.

I can kind of understand the problem in some place like LA or NYC or whatever, where people are basically packed in like sardines. And let's say they don't have a car to go out to a park beyond city limits. And when they do, most people aren't like me - I actively seek out parks and places to go hiking where there are *less* people, and that was before this whole thing started.

But it seems like having a central authority announce that 'hey, you can go here, here and here, and not just here' would be helpful to the "common clay" crowd.

Smoove_B wrote: Fri May 15, 2020 1:48 pm It's not difficult in theory. In practice, human behavior dictates outcomes. For example, kindly review what was happening at NJ parks over the last few weeks. So now we open bathrooms and we have to actively monitor them.

I mean, I know. It's just that this *shouldn't* be so hard, at least in this respect.

El Guapo wrote: Fri May 15, 2020 2:16 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Fri May 15, 2020 1:48 pm It's not difficult in theory. In practice, human behavior dictates outcomes. For example, kindly review what was happening at NJ parks over the last few weeks. So now we open bathrooms and we have to actively monitor them.

I mean, I know. It's just that this *shouldn't* be so hard, at least in this respect.

One of many 'easy' things that humans are terrible at en masse.

So I guess the Abbott Lab's rapid COVID-19 test got an FDA warning about accuracy. This is the test that Trump pimped. It is also the one believed to be used in the White House.

When asked if he was concerned, he said something like "Not concerned. You can double check results. You get a positive or negative result, you can double check it..."

What is the point of taking the test in the first place if you have to double check both positive and negative results? I really hope this is the test they use.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Fri May 15, 2020 2:56 pmWhat is the point of taking the test in the first place if you have to double check both positive and negative results?

Especially when you can't get the disease if you don't test for it.

https://twitter.com/sarahcpr/status/126 ... 04224?s=20

Smoove_B wrote: Fri May 15, 2020 1:48 pm It's not difficult in theory. In practice, human behavior dictates outcomes. For example, kindly review what was happening at NJ parks over the last few weeks. So now we open bathrooms and we have to actively monitor them.

I went to the Rutgers Farm Market today. They've actually got a really nice set up. They have a solar canopy with a green roof and the vendors are set up under it. 2 rows back to back. They have a wait line sprayed on the ground about 15 feet back parallel to each of the rows of tables. That gives people one at a time access to the vendor, a one-way path that circles the entire thing with volunteers directing traffic, and queues straight back to allow spacing. Everybody is masked and the vendors are changing gloves. It is really well done. However, I watched and you can see the pareto principle in action. About 80% of the people are following the rules. About 20% are wandering aimlessly through the crowds of people attempting to keep their distance. Or they are walking opposite the one-way. I saw one woman turned around by a volunteer 3 times in about a minute. "I HAVE TO GO ALLLLLL THE WAY AROUND?!?" Trot.Trot.Trot.Turn around try to go back. Volunteer turns her around. Rinse. Repeat x2. By that time we were leaving the event but holy hell. Just follow the VERY BASIC RULES.

El Guapo wrote: Fri May 15, 2020 3:17 pm https://twitter.com/JLCauvin/status/1261038004996538368

See, I thought this guy was lip-syncing, but no - he's just talking shit. ok.

Yeah, I thought the same thing, but when I looked him up I found out that he's a stand-up comedian who's gone viral for being a spot-on Trump mimic. He's lampooning Trump, not doing a lip-sync to an actual Trump speech.

I guess it's a sign of the times that it isn't immediately obvious that it's satire. I mean, it sounded like the sort of stuff that Trump would actually say.

I cannot face palm hard enough:

The United States’ ability to test for the novel coronavirus finally seems to be improving. As recently as late April, the country rarely reported more than 150,000 new test results each day. The U.S. now routinely claims to conduct more than 300,000 tests a day, according to state-level data compiled by the COVID Tracking Project at The Atlantic.

But these rosy numbers may conceal a problem: A lack of federal guidelines has created huge variation in how states are reporting their COVID-19 data and in what kind of data they provide to the public.

These gaps can be used for political advantage. In at least one state, Virginia, senior officials are blending the results of two different types of coronavirus test in order to report a more favorable result to the public. This harms the integrity of the data they use to make decisions, reassure residents, and justify reopening their economy.

When people ask what's the big deal if the federal government isn't driving the process? Who cares if the states do what they want - isn't that how things are supposed to work? This will be exhibit (A) as to why there needs to be a unified response during a pandemic.

I can't play (some) videos embedded in the twitster, even with my ad blocker off. When I click Play the video disappears and I get a plain white box. I can click through and see them on twister. Anybody else?

Kraken wrote: Fri May 15, 2020 9:27 pm I can't play (some) videos embedded in the twitster, even with my ad blocker off. When I click Play the video disappears and I get a plain white box. I can click through and see them on twister. Anybody else?

Yes, happens to me sometimes. Hear it happens to most guys.

Kraken wrote: Fri May 15, 2020 9:27 pm I can't play (some) videos embedded in the twitster, even with my ad blocker off. When I click Play the video disappears and I get a plain white box. I can click through and see them on twister. Anybody else?

Same problem. I just clicked his name to go to his page and see it.

Kraken wrote: Fri May 15, 2020 9:27 pm I can't play (some) videos embedded in the twitster, even with my ad blocker off. When I click Play the video disappears and I get a plain white box. I can click through and see them on twister. Anybody else?

That's me and firefox for a lot of stuff. I'm OK with it. I kinda wish browsers were more draconian in their attempt to protect me from myself. But then I'm always helping family and performing helpdesk functions to keep help people who need protection from themselves.

LawBeefaroni wrote:

Z-Corn wrote: Wed May 13, 2020 1:44 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed May 13, 2020 12:56 pm Probably once every few weeks I consider how to move back. Already shopping for land up North. Wife and kids won't have it though so it will probably be vacation property rather than residential. 200 or so acres with a berm and a river. Not asking for much.

Grass is always greener...

How far North you thinkin'?

North of Muskegon in the west, maybe Bay City in the east. No real set boundry, just where isolation tends to increase and prices start to drop. UP isn't out of the question but the further north, the more likely I'll have to buy a truck and I don't want to buy a truck.

I like the Manistee Forest area.

It’s beautiful up there. The Scout camp we go to every year is near Muskegon in the Manistee forest. I wouldn’t mind having a little place up there if I could get decent internet coverage so I could spend a week at a time and work from there.

Zaxxon wrote: Fri May 15, 2020 2:52 pm

El Guapo wrote: Fri May 15, 2020 2:16 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Fri May 15, 2020 1:48 pm It's not difficult in theory. In practice, human behavior dictates outcomes. For example, kindly review what was happening at NJ parks over the last few weeks. So now we open bathrooms and we have to actively monitor them.

I mean, I know. It's just that this *shouldn't* be so hard, at least in this respect.

One of many 'easy' things that humans are terrible at en masse.

I think part of what causes that is we all tend to think we're special. Example, if I go to the market to look for a specific food product and they don't have it, but they have lots of that product made by other companies, I might think "Why is everyone buying Brand X?". Haha, but I myself was specifically looking to buy Brand X, right? Did I think I was the only one with that idea? No, I'm just one probably hundreds of people who had the same idea.

So if a governor says it's okay to go to a beach if blah blah blah, that one person who thinks "I think it's safe now to take the family to the beach and maybe I'll invite my brother and his family...oh yeah, maybe my buddy will want to bring his family too and we'll all party there to celebrate reopening" and it sounds okay because it's just this small group of people. But think of the hundreds if not thousands of people out there who have the exact same idea, and each one thinks they're the only one who thought of it. That's how you get a crowded beach with all the rules being broken.

So, how's that vaccine at Oxford going?

https://twitter.com/dougmmilford/status ... 8630464516

"All of the vaccinated monkeys treated with the Oxford vaccine became infected when challenged, as judged by recovery of virus genomic RNA from nasal secretions."

Wasn't that many days ago I mentioned the 80,000 deaths. Then it was over 83,000. Can add 5000 more US deaths as its over 88,000. Another 5,000 deaths. Thats nuts. But it seems the majority of the US with all the GOP are taking it simply as a number and moving on.

In a normal time if the news came on and said "5,000 people died today" it would be mind blowing. Thats more than the entire 9/11 or OK City.

Smoove_B wrote: Sat May 16, 2020 5:13 pm So, how's that vaccine at Oxford going?

https://twitter.com/dougmmilford/status ... 8630464516

"All of the vaccinated monkeys treated with the Oxford vaccine became infected when challenged, as judged by recovery of virus genomic RNA from nasal secretions."

no, wait, it's 'encouraging':

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/oxford-uni ... g-results/

Daehawk wrote: Sat May 16, 2020 6:12 pm Wasn't that many days ago I mentioned the 80,000 deaths. Then it was over 83,000. Can add 5000 more US deaths as its over 88,000. Another 5,000 deaths. Thats nuts. But it seems the majority of the US with all the GOP are taking it simply as a number and moving on.

In a normal time if the news came on and said "5,000 people died today" it would be mind blowing. Thats more than the entire 9/11 or OK City.

Remarkable that even this seems optimistic in 2020.

Daehawk wrote: Sat May 16, 2020 6:12 pm Wasn't that many days ago I mentioned the 80,000 deaths. Then it was over 83,000. Can add 5000 more US deaths as its over 88,000. Another 5,000 deaths. Thats nuts. But it seems the majority of the US with all the GOP are taking it simply as a number and moving on.

In a normal time if the news came on and said "5,000 people died today" it would be mind blowing. Thats more than the entire 9/11 or OK City.

It's nuttier than that. Not only are they shrugging and moving on, they'd like to start taking steps that they know will increase that number so they can get on with their lives. In other words, not only would they shrug off me getting sick and dying of this virus, they'd consider it a worthwhile trade! I guess if you aren't the one getting sick, and you're a sociopath, it is a worthwhile trade.

gameoverman wrote: Sat May 16, 2020 8:54 pm I guess if you aren't the one getting sick, and you're a sociopath, it is a worthwhile trade.

Of course it is.

If you're a bank and you make $2B laundering drug money and get a $200M fine, it's worthwhile.

If you make $7M on insider trading and the SEC takes your $1M home, it's worthwhile.

If you get caught doing PEDs after you've had several $20M deals and lived the life, it's worthwhile.

What are some sick nobodies against the GDP?

This is fucking America! You don't need honor or sacrifice when you're #winning.

gameoverman wrote: Sat May 16, 2020 8:54 pm

Daehawk wrote: Sat May 16, 2020 6:12 pm Wasn't that many days ago I mentioned the 80,000 deaths. Then it was over 83,000. Can add 5000 more US deaths as its over 88,000. Another 5,000 deaths. Thats nuts. But it seems the majority of the US with all the GOP are taking it simply as a number and moving on.

In a normal time if the news came on and said "5,000 people died today" it would be mind blowing. Thats more than the entire 9/11 or OK City.

It's nuttier than that. Not only are they shrugging and moving on, they'd like to start taking steps that they know will increase that number so they can get on with their lives. In other words, not only would they shrug off me getting sick and dying of this virus, they'd consider it a worthwhile trade! I guess if you aren't the one getting sick, and you're a sociopath, it is a worthwhile trade.

I keep seeing people fretting about a potential second wave. The first wave never ended. We are still losing 1,500-2,000 Americans a day, every day, and that's expected to rise to 3,000 by the end of this month.

Well, they can reopen businesses and force the poor to work in them, but they can't make us patronize them. Charlie Baker is going to unveil the first step in reopening MA on Tuesday; I am going to keep right on isolating.

gameoverman wrote: Sat May 16, 2020 8:54 pm It's nuttier than that. Not only are they shrugging and moving on, they'd like to start taking steps that they know will increase that number so they can get on with their lives. In other words, not only would they shrug off me getting sick and dying of this virus, they'd consider it a worthwhile trade! I guess if you aren't the one getting sick, and you're a sociopath, it is a worthwhile trade.

That's just it, these are all just numbers to them. Many people - especially in rural communities - don't actually know anyone who has gotten sick or died from this. It's all just faceless numbers in New York or California or some other "liberal" place they have been programmed to dislike anyways. There's literally nothing that connects 80,000...85,000...90,000 to them or makes them feel the impact of that loss in any way.

If/when it does hit their community, then they might start to care. But probably not even then, unless it happens to impact someone in their immediate family. Then, if that person suffers sufficiently or dies, they might give a shit and change their behavior. But until then, the only thing that matters is "MUH FREEDOMS!!"

So, in the USA we are at 1,507,773 cases.

429,345 cases have had an outcome:

339,232 (79%) Recovered/Discharged
90,113 (21%) Deaths

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

So, if that trend continues and we add No More new cases, one would think the (roughly) remaining 1 million cases would result in an additional 200,000 dead. Now we should 'get better at this', so the trend may not continue - but then of course, we are certainly not even remotely going to be seeing No More new cases... so I'm sure +300k dead is entirely already baked into the books right now.

No?

Unagi wrote: Sat May 16, 2020 10:57 pm So, in the USA we are at 1,507,773 cases.

429,345 cases have had an outcome:

339,232 (79%) Recovered/Discharged
90,113 (21%) Deaths

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

So, if that trend continues and we add No More new cases, one would think the (roughly) remaining 1 million cases would result in an additional 200,000 dead. Now we should 'get better at this', so the trend may not continue - but then of course, we are certainly not even remotely going to be seeing No More new cases... so I'm sure +300k dead is entirely already baked into the books right now.

No?

Probably not but unknown. The death/recovery rate lags quite a bit. It depends on many factors (e.g. demographics/co-morbidities/quality of care available). Based on what I've seen a reasonable estimate is probably between 3-10%. It could trend down a lot though as testing ramps up. The numbers have been high because they've been testing the very sick to preserve tests. In any event, 20% is probably not the case.

COVID testing per 1 million people

Glad to see the US so far ahead of everyone in ...wait...somethings wrong with the graph.

I was just thinking, I know people who won't do the little things to make life more pleasant because it doesn't directly benefit them. Such as, you drink the last full glass of juice in the container, so now there is only maybe an ounce or two left. Then you put the container back in the fridge and say nothing to anyone about it. Why? Because you have a full glass and that's all you want for now. If/when you want more juice you'll go buy some more, until then it's not your problem.

This virus response by some is just like that except in a life or death context. Some people really do feel that "I'm not sick, no one I know is sick, therefore it's not my problem. Reopen all the things now!".

There are some uniquely American (and some just plain old human behavior) factors at play that are exacerbating the issue.

The idea that "nothing bad ever happens to us" mentality. We're usually removed from wars, riots, terrorist attacks, etc. It's difficult for people to comprehend that the virus would hit us as hard as those "other countries."

Then there's the "instant gratification" attitude that has come about from technology. If we want to see a movie we can rent it online and be watching it in seconds, so how the hell does it take 18 months to make a vaccine? That vaccine that nobody has ever made before will be ready by fall, just you wait!

The "I'm a goddamn 'Murrican!" attitude where even the slightest bit of inconvenience someone asks you to perform is met with righteous indignation.

The "I got mine" mentality, which is just a complete lack of compassion. This one seems rampant these days.

And of course, the most recent addition, the Adam Savage/Dungeonmaster "I reject your reality and substitute my own" attitude that if you run across something you don't like, you can just pretend it isn't real. Or if the universe hands you a random bad thing, you can pretend it was forced upon you by an enemy. This, to me, is the scariest one, and the one I can't actually believe 40+% of the population is apparently OK with.

Unagi wrote:So, in the USA we are at 1,507,773 cases.

429,345 cases have had an outcome:

339,232 (79%) Recovered/Discharged
90,113 (21%) Deaths

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

So, if that trend continues and we add No More new cases, one would think the (roughly) remaining 1 million cases would result in an additional 200,000 dead. Now we should 'get better at this', so the trend may not continue - but then of course, we are certainly not even remotely going to be seeing No More new cases... so I'm sure +300k dead is entirely already baked into the books right now.

No?

No. The virus isn’t killing 21% of positive test cases.

Unagi wrote: Sat May 16, 2020 10:57 pm So, in the USA we are at 1,507,773 cases.

429,345 cases have had an outcome:

339,232 (79%) Recovered/Discharged
90,113 (21%) Deaths

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

So, if that trend continues and we add No More new cases, one would think the (roughly) remaining 1 million cases would result in an additional 200,000 dead. Now we should 'get better at this', so the trend may not continue - but then of course, we are certainly not even remotely going to be seeing No More new cases... so I'm sure +300k dead is entirely already baked into the books right now.

No?

Deaths usually happen relatively early on, whereas people who recover could take six weeks to do so. So if suddenly no one else got infected, there would be a sharp (but not complete) drop in deaths within a couple of weeks. And I don't think we would see 200K deaths in that time.

Also, I'm not convinced we know how many people have recovered, given testing issues (not enough testing, false negatives) + differences in reporting in different locations, etc.

RunningMn9 wrote: Sun May 17, 2020 9:10 am

Unagi wrote:So, in the USA we are at 1,507,773 cases.

429,345 cases have had an outcome:

339,232 (79%) Recovered/Discharged
90,113 (21%) Deaths

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

So, if that trend continues and we add No More new cases, one would think the (roughly) remaining 1 million cases would result in an additional 200,000 dead. Now we should 'get better at this', so the trend may not continue - but then of course, we are certainly not even remotely going to be seeing No More new cases... so I'm sure +300k dead is entirely already baked into the books right now.

No?

No. The virus isn’t killing 21% of positive test cases.

No, clearly not. That’s not what I said.

Out of the positive cases that have reached an outcome or conclusion, that outcome has been death 21% of the time.


Plenty of pending cases still left (more than resolved).
And if the majority of testing is currently on the sickest, then that’s inflating the numbers.

That said, since we are not even close to this being over; I’m sure 300k is a very real possibility (and technically one can’t show with data that it will be less, only by coloring and weighing the data with things like ‘but mostly the super sick were tested’, which doesn’t really turn into a mathematically easy ‘fix’ to the true statistics )