Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[LordMortis]

If only he was howling about China. Let's not ignore this one:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/sta ... 3673102337

Breaking: Michigan sends absentee ballots to 7.7 million people ahead of Primaries and the General Election. This was done illegally and without authorization by a rogue Secretary of State. I will ask to hold up funding to Michigan if they want to go down this Voter Fraud path!..

The President of the United States of America is threatening to cut aid to a state in crisis if they allow vote by mail.

I'd say I don't blame him for saying MI is mailing 7.7 million ballots. Others have reported it that way but he's the Goddamned president. His passing along of ignorance as fact should be criminal. When to do we get to ask to hold federal taxes if the fucking president can't get his piece of shit self together?

[Paingod]

My county just declared that since they can't be certain who is fully recovered, they can't be certain how many active cases there are, and that as a result, the will no longer be reporting active cases.

That's the official "throwing the stack of papers into the air and saying Fukit" as you walk off stage, right?

[Blackhawk]

It's like tests: if we don't report cases, fewer cases get reported!

[Smoove_B]

Once again, Ed Yong and the Atlantic are KILLING IT with Patchwork pandemic:

There was supposed to be a peak. But the stark turning point, when the number of daily COVID-19 cases in the U.S. finally crested and began descending sharply, never happened. Instead, America spent much of April on a disquieting plateau, with every day bringing about 30,000 new cases and about 2,000 new deaths. The graphs were more mesa than Matterhorn—flat-topped, not sharp-peaked. Only this month has the slope started gently heading downward.

This pattern exists because different states have experienced the coronavirus pandemic in very different ways. In the most severely pummeled places, like New York and New Jersey, COVID-19 is waning. In Texas and North Carolina, it is still taking off. In Oregon and South Carolina, it is holding steady. These trends average into a national plateau, but each state’s pattern is distinct. Currently, Hawaii’s looks like a child’s drawing of a mountain. Minnesota’s looks like the tip of a hockey stick. Maine’s looks like a (two-humped) camel. The U.S. is dealing with a patchwork pandemic.

Another perfect analogy:

Stay-at-home orders were necessary but ruinous, economically and emotionally. Their purpose was to buy time for the country to catch its breath, steel its hospitals, and roll out a public-health plan capable of quashing the virus. Many such plans exist. Umpteen think tanks and academics have produced their own road maps for dialing society back up. These vary in their details, but are united in at least having some. By contrast, the Trump administration’s guidelines for “opening up America again” are so bereft of operational specifics that they’re like a cake recipe that simply reads, “Make cake.”

[Smoove_B]

And I'm just seeing this - let's see if America learns any lessons:

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1 ... 0006210560

Welp again. Just one week after a third of French schoolchildren went back to school in an easing of #COVID19 lockdown, there’s a new flareup of about 70 cases linked to schools. Affected schools in Paris closed down again. So hard to stop this.

[Isgrimnur]

[malchior]

I don't how to handicap it but at least one of these red states is likely to have a really bad time of it this summer. I can't really see what happens then. They'll do their best to minimize their actions or the danger but I can't see restrictions happening. It is political poison at this point.

[LordMortis]

Whoops there goes gravity

https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/ ... 228283002/

Did I mention Whoops there goes gravity.

https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/loc ... ford-says/

What you are hearing is the sound of the stock market...

[Smoove_B]

I know Nate Silver has lost his luster in the last few years, but I'm puzzled as to why he's being given a platform to discuss infectious disease modeling. Like, I get he's good with numbers but being able interpret and model polling data doesn't confer knowledge of public health policy. There are genuine actual experts in this area.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/statu ... 1772812289

In general, critiques of governmental responses to coronavirus don't do enough to account for the fact that there are a lot of unknowns surrounding the virus, and optimal policy is likely to be different when there are a lot of unknowns.

[El Guapo]

I know Nate Silver has lost his luster in the last few years, but I'm puzzled as to why he's being given a platform to discuss infectious disease modeling. Like, I get he's good with numbers but being able interpret and model polling data doesn't confer knowledge of public health policy. There are genuine actual experts in this area.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/statu ... 1772812289

In general, critiques of governmental responses to coronavirus don't do enough to account for the fact that there are a lot of unknowns surrounding the virus, and optimal policy is likely to be different when there are a lot of unknowns.

I'm confused about why you say he's lost his luster? He's doing the same thing he always does - analyzing politics / policy issues with a focus on data. He's not doing infectious disease modeling exactly, he's just talking about public policy.

Anyway, this just seems like a fairly banal point that policymaking in the face of unknowns is complicated and difficult.

[Isgrimnur]

[Holman]

I'm confused about why you say he's lost his luster?

Nate became a star when he appeared to prognosticate 2012 more perfectly than anyone else, but then 2016 happened and all pollsters (including Silver) were tarnished by Trump's win.

As it happens, though, Silver's numbers in 2016 were very accurate. It's just that people mistook probabilities for predictions, something statisticians try hard to avoid.

Of course he has also IIRC stepped into Twitter mudtraps a time or two, but I think the question of his reputation is about the above. Before Trump, we comfortably mistook statisticians for soothsayers.

[Smoove_B]

Anyway, this just seems like a fairly banal point that policymaking in the face of unknowns is complicated and difficult.

As the additional Tweet from Isg shows, he's swerving into an area I'm pretty confident in saying he knows nothing about - how public health practitioners develop policy and respond to unknowns. He's feeding into the "we don't know exactly what to do, so we shouldn't do anything" mentality that I see growing. We need to transition out of a binary response to this and figure out appropriate tiers of response as a way to address what's happening based on what we do know - using risk and models for similar diseases.

[El Guapo]

Anyway, this just seems like a fairly banal point that policymaking in the face of unknowns is complicated and difficult.

As the additional Tweet from Isg shows, he's swerving into an area I'm pretty confident in saying he knows nothing about - how public health practitioners develop policy and respond to unknowns. He's feeding into the "we don't know exactly what to do, so we shouldn't do anything" mentality that I see growing. We need to transition out of a binary response to this and figure out appropriate tiers of response as a way to address what's happening based on what we do know - using risk and models for similar diseases.

I don't think he's saying that we shouldn't do anything. Nor is it inconsistent with developing risk and models and using that to inform policies. I take these points as just "policy is hard in the face of unknowns, so we should consider that when second-guessing policy decisions" and (on Isgrimnur's tweet) that you want to collect data on what's working and not working and adapt your policies in response.

I think it's fair to say that those are not exactly super piercing insights, but neither is "we don't know anything so should do nothing".

[Smoove_B]

You're right - he's not saying we shouldn't do anything. He's saying criticizing government for doing nothing isn't fair because those in government don't have data to make good decisions. What he fails to realize is that public health - emergency public health response - is absolutely able to make good decisions with very little initial data using acceptable best practices for infectious disease control. The federal government (and likely many state and local agencies) should be crucified for not using decades of data to guide practice *right now* until academics and researchers can give us additional data to tweak practice.

Emergency response to disease outbreak is a thing. There are experts - and they make sound scientific decisions before knowing specifics. COVID-19 is new. Disease outbreaks are not. He's out of his depth.

[malchior]

I think it's fair to say that those are not exactly super piercing insights, but neither is "we don't know anything so should do nothing".

BTW this is why he is losing his luster if he is. I talked about this a while before but he drops a lot of empty calorie tweets that are read sideways by folks. Especially when he is out of his depth - which he has been in this crisis. Sometimes they are at Cillizza level analysis. Which is super off brand. This one is a bit of a head scratcher because its possibly banal but it also could be taken the way Smoove_B is taking it.

[LordMortis]

I suspect my neighboring county, where I spend the majority of my formative years time just made the list .

https://www.mlive.com/news/ann-arbor/20 ... visit.html

“I respect the Office of the President and generally welcome the opportunity for you to learn about the needs of our community; however, I firmly believe that your recent inaccurate statements and actions cause greater uncertainty, division and harm to our residents,”

“The absence of any official communication leads me to the conclusion that this must be a campaign stop,” the letter, signed individually by Morgan, states. “I am deeply troubled by the President of the United States visiting our community to campaign during a public health crisis.”

[LawBeefaroni]

I suspect my neighboring county, where I spend the majority of my formative years time just made the list .

https://www.mlive.com/news/ann-arbor/20 ... visit.html

“I respect the Office of the President and generally welcome the opportunity for you to learn about the needs of our community; however, I firmly believe that your recent inaccurate statements and actions cause greater uncertainty, division and harm to our residents,”

“The absence of any official communication leads me to the conclusion that this must be a campaign stop,” the letter, signed individually by Morgan, states. “I am deeply troubled by the President of the United States visiting our community to campaign during a public health crisis.”

My home county.

[Holman]

My home county.

Washtenaw forever!

I was there for ten great years.

[El Guapo]

You're right - he's not saying we shouldn't do anything. He's saying criticizing government for doing nothing isn't fair because those in government don't have data to make good decisions. What he fails to realize is that public health - emergency public health response - is absolutely able to make good decisions with very little initial data using acceptable best practices for infectious disease control. The federal government (and likely many state and local agencies) should be crucified for not using decades of data to guide practice *right now* until academics and researchers can give us additional data to tweak practice.

Emergency response to disease outbreak is a thing. There are experts - and they make sound scientific decisions before knowing specifics. COVID-19 is new. Disease outbreaks are not. He's out of his depth.

Where does he say that criticizing government for doing nothing isn't fair? Governments are making a lot of decisions these days on coronavirus. I think it's fair to say that some governments are doing reasonably good jobs (given the limitations that they have to work with) and some are making poor decisions.

[Smoove_B]

In general, critiques of governmental responses to coronavirus don't do enough to account for the fact that there are a lot of unknowns surrounding the virus

As I read it, he's saying that anyone being critical of the government's response right now isn't acknowledging that there is currently unknown information ("data" in his world) about the virus. I'm then extrapolating that he's implying then that criticism isn't fair - because governments cannot make good decisions in the absence of data.

Broadly I suppose that's true - data driven decisions are a cornerstone element of public health. However, as I said earlier, he's feeding into this growing idea suggesting no one saw this coming, no one could have responded adequately to this, nothing could have been done, etc... and that is absolutely untrue. He feels (as stated above) critics aren't acknowledging (in his mind) unknown data points as part of their evaluation. I'm telling you even in the absence of data there are 40+ years of infectious disease control models that the federal government/states/locals could have jumped on while more data was collected. The biggest outbreak I ever worked on (admitted small) we had no idea what the agent was. We had some guesses, but we didn't have confirmatory testing available to us when we arrived on scene. It would have been inappropriate (see: against state statute) for us to say, "Well, we're just going to stand around for 72 hours and wait for data from the lab to tell us what to do." Instead, we came up with a mitigation plan that broadly addressed our suspicions and fit with our hypothesis as to what was happening. All we knew was that people were experiencing a defined set of symptoms. We had to act with significant unknowns, but guided by basic infectious disease control practice.

We should absolutely be critical of the response knowing that making decisions in an unknown environment is part of the job. I get the sense he's wired for data and is uncomfortable when he doesn't have enough of it. That's fine - but as a foot solider, I never had the luxury of standing around and waiting for more data to come in. I had to (and was obligated to) act on what I knew.

[El Guapo]

However, as I said earlier, he's feeding into this growing idea suggesting no one saw this coming, no one could have responded adequately to this, nothing could have been done, etc... and that is absolutely untrue.

This is the part that you are reading into what he is saying that I just don't think is there.

Right now lots of state, local, and foreign governments are making decisions about what to open when, how fast, and how to respond to any resulting increases in cases. Those are I think not necessarily easy decisions (do you let outdoor restaurants open? Under what conditions?), and they have to be made under still imperfect knowledge of how the virus is transmitted. Given that those are the main decisions right now, it seems like that's probably the decisions that he's referring to. I don't see much reason to infer that he's suggesting that "no one saw this coming" and no response could have been adequate.

[malchior]

https://mobile.twitter.com/K_G_Andersen ... 9054641152

[LordMortis]

Round 2! Fight!

https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-coron ... s-and-maps

By my math we're 13 days out from a rise in death toll again. Though I'm not sure how to respond. This was actually kinda the goal. Flatten the curve for the medical establishment and then control an opening. I'm hoping in my not so educated way that school being done for the year is going to help ease things into August.

I just wish the testing infrastructure were better before the controlled opening, not just the curve flattening.

My county stands at 1,567 reported cases per 100,000. My municipality is something like 900 or more.

[malchior]

These guys are such morons. If their "lawyers" can't lookup the citation provided on the notice...meanwhile Murphy is saying he is unconcerned that people will continue to act out because we are opening back up anyway. This is the dumbest timeline. What happens when cases increase again since we have no testing/tracing in place?

https://mobile.twitter.com/KeeleyFox29/ ... 3982604289

[Smoove_B]

I don't see much reason to infer that he's suggesting that "no one saw this coming" and no response could have been adequate.

Maybe -- I know I'm clearly biased. And I don't actually like reading a pollsters opinion of public health response.

[Smoove_B]

Wow, that gym thing is...an interesting choice. They're quoting the State's Communicable Disease code and using a sticker that is associated with the retail food code to close a gym. For reference, the "embargo" sticker is applied to a food product (crates of food, boxes of meat, etc...) when the local health authority suspects that food item isn't safe for human consumption but cannot prove it on-site. Instead, that sticker is applied and the food in question cannot be used until the food vendor can demonstrate (with the help of lab) that the food isn't contaminated and is therefore safe to use. It's old school and something I've done, but never to a gym. I don't even know what to say here.

EDIT: A local news article has some more details:

The sewer system serving the gym backed up Wednesday, “right after [Gov. Murphy’s daily] briefing where they said the Board of Health would be involved,” Trumbetti told FOX 29, forcing members to evacuate. A sewage remediation team was onsite Thursday, according to FOX 29.

I legitimately don't understand why this wasn't done in conjunction with the state police as a violation of the emergency order. Once again, a perfect example of the lack of coordination here in NJ and how every town is running like it's own state. Watch and see what happens when another facility tries the same thing. I guarantee it will be a completely different response.

[malchior]

It's gotten more absurd because the guy is turning this into a conspiracy theory. Apparently he made a claim during one of his interviews (looking for it now) where he said the sewers mysteriously backed up and he now needs a cleaning crew inside. He's blaming it on 'Murphy's dirty tricks'. Which is hilarious because as mentioned everything in NJ is local. The state has about as much control over the sewer system as Trump does. The local guys own that system lock, stock, and barrel. He is vowing to be open tomorrow after they deal with that 'embargo' situation. Lol.

[LawBeefaroni]

I legitimately don't understand why this wasn't done in conjunction with the state police as a violation of the emergency order.

I know in Illinois the "lockdown" orders lacked the force of law. The Illinois State Police have said they will not arrest anyone for violation and will only issue citations to businesses, not forcibly shut them down. Local police act on their mayor/county orders but have to be wary of the fact that there is no actual law. The FOP has issued warnings about this.


https://twitter.com/ILStatePolice/statu ... 32/photo/1

[Smoove_B]

Yeah, that might be part of it in NJ. We have state police, local police and county sheriff's officers. I think at least one county in NJ has their own police force too. Depending on what kingdom you're in, they're going to claim jurisdiction and/or point the finger at which agency should be enforcing it.

I look forward to telling you all about the continuing education training I'll need to sit through in response to this, that's for sure.

[LawBeefaroni]

I get that on paper, it's what should happen. But the expenditure of resources -- time, people, equipment and money -- would make it cost-prohibitive to do unless you're really concerned, or just have an infinite supply of resources to burn. Or do you think China just approaches cost-benefit analysis differently than we do when it comes to infection control?

All unknown.

Like I mentioned, don't underestimate Hong Kong. They had thousands protesting in the street a few days ago and from what I understand there are very few out today. There were lots of New Year protests planned. I'm sure that wasn't overlooked when doing the cost-benefit-risk analysis.

It worked.

China is using covid-19 to throttle Hong Kong’s pro-democracy movement


Non-paywalled source:

Beijing fired its opening salvo on April 17, when its liaison office in Hong Kong effectively dismantled over two decades of legal precedence by declaring that it has full authority to interfere in Hong Kong’s affairs, leaving legal scholars and experts on the city’s mini constitution appalled. The next day, 15 veteran leaders of the city’s democracy movement were arrested over their roles in last year’s protests. A few days later, the central government’s Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office issued a string of statements, voicing support for the liaison office while condemning opposition figures and politicians. In the span of five days, the rules of engagement between Beijing and Hong Kong—ostensibly a city with a high degree of autonomy over its own affairs—were completely rewritten.

Meanwhile, as Hong Kong appears to have contained local transmission of Covid-19 cases, protesters are again itching to vent their long list of grievances. Across the city, small crowds gathered at shopping malls to sing and chant slogans—though police have been quick to break them up with pepper-spray and batons, charging protesters with breaking social distancing rules even while bar-goers and pro-government demonstrators were largely left to their own devices. To many, the double standards were stark: the police were using public health rules to clamp down on anti-government protesters.

Now notice all the anti-Chinese rhetoric from the current administration. Couple that with their almost uncanny use of projection, I'd say they're looking at how to use this blueprint here. Like maybe say in November?

[LordMortis]

[Smoove_B]

The NJ gym owner opening his facility during the pandemic legitimately might be my favorite local news story of 2020. Today's update includes him needing to apologize for using a megaphone with white supremacist flair on it:

“It was not his megaphone,” Smith’s lawyer James Mermigis told NJ Advance Media. “Not that it makes it right that someone in the crowd had it."

“We had nothing to do with them ... they showed up, uninvited,” he said.

Just going to throw this out there - when white supremacists show up to support your cause, maybe it's time to take a step back and re-evaluate your position.

[LordMortis]

"We will convene at Brixton Bus station. We'll be moving along at about 12 o'clock down Stockwell Road

(Also reading the article I can appreciate that he flat out condemns racist support for his plight. I wonder if some could learn from that...)

[malchior]

The NJ gym owner opening his facility during the pandemic legitimately might be my favorite local news story of 2020. Today's update includes him needing to apologize for using a megaphone with white supremacist flair on it:

“It was not his megaphone,” Smith’s lawyer James Mermigis told NJ Advance Media. “Not that it makes it right that someone in the crowd had it."

“We had nothing to do with them ... they showed up, uninvited,” he said.

Just going to throw this out there - when white supremacists show up to support your cause, maybe it's time to take a step back and re-evaluate your position.

Fun personal element to it now. I was watching a video and am 95% sure I know one of the folks. Not megaphone racist but likely a hanger on to him. When I knew this guy (if it indeed is him) it was probably 1996 and I used to go hang out with friends and an ex-girlfriend at a Dunkin in Ledgewood. For the benefit of those not NJ aware this is the gateway to very red-then and now-Sussex county where Routes 10 and 46 converge before going up further into the hills of NW NJ towards the Delaware Water gap. There I used to cross paths with what can only be called a gang of skinheads. We got along fine enough since I was a white guy but they'd get cross about my long hair. That said, I would clearly say I never went to their parties though they invited us. I can't remember their names (pretty sure their 'leader' was named Sean FWIW) but there was always one guy that was more quiet but clearly more into the race stuff than his friends. That was the guy I'm pretty sure I recognized. Hate has deep, deep roots.

[Smoove_B]

I didn't realize Fox news was also going after NY politicians - I guess I've just been so focused on the locals screaming over the NJ governor:

https://twitter.com/revrrlewis/status/1 ... 9459119108

Fox & Friends hopes that businesses all over New York City will defy the mayor and governor and re-open this weekend, and that the NYPD will "cheer them on."

I'm confused as to why no one is pointing out that they're all calling for this from the safety of their living rooms. "Pawns go first", indeed.

[Smoove_B]

Stuff

Tell the truth - you were hitting DD after visiting Smiles, making your way around what was the Ledgewood circle.

[LordMortis]

I'm confused as to why no one is pointing out that they're all calling for this from the safety of their living rooms. "Pawns go first", indeed.

This. If you are using your platform to champion civil disobedience, why aren't you leading?

Edit:

"Walls and fences don't work. We all know that."

Priceless.

[malchior]

Stuff

Tell the truth - you were hitting DD after visiting Smiles, making your way around what was the Ledgewood circle.

Oh good lord no. Smiles!? Ugh. I actually preferred that circle to what it is now.

[Octavious]

Stuff

Tell the truth - you were hitting DD after visiting Smiles, making your way around what was the Ledgewood circle.

Oh good lord no. Smiles!? Ugh. I actually preferred that circle to what it is now.

Eh the circle wasn't the most fun thing to navigate. Smiles got shutdown years ago for credit card fraud. Who would think that people running strip clubs would be unethical? And I know those DD people too. Need to go check the video.