Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Carpet_pissr »

noxiousdog wrote:
Carpet_pissr wrote: ND: curious to know what % you have in gold at this time? Are you worried about continued USD devaluation?
I'm not worried about anything specifically so much as just pursuing diversification.
I hate to keep harping on the same thing, but I think it's important.

Are you diversified across currencies? Meaning, if the dollar becomes the "new peso", how hard hit would your portfolio be?

This is kind of what prompted my initial posts...IF one believes that the large, fiat currencies of the Euro and the Dollar are going to continue to get nailed, what can the individual investor do to protect himself?

Of course, you may believe that we can somehow turn this around, and keep spending without ever having to pay the piper as it were. Or you may have faith that Washington not only sees the impending train wreck, but is actively able AND willing to do something to avert it?

If you are primarily diversified in the US market, unless by diversified, you also mean short, I wonder how "safe" that will be in 2 years? 5 years?

I don't know, and I hope my tone doesn't color what I fully intend to be neutral questions here. I HAVE NO CLUE. But based on my rudimentary understanding of global finance, we seem to be heading for something that I want to be protected against as much as possible.

My answer as posted, would be to try and find non-US large caps (value), with some serious dividend power (Nestle, perhaps! :) Preferably non EU as well, but that really really narrows it down. Some of the larger Brazilian commodities companies look good to me, for instance, or even some Chinese telecom companies maybe.

Edit: @Lawbeef: no worries re: PEG comment, I use it much like one would use MSRP...with a BIG grain of salt...still, it can be one of many useful indicators.
Last edited by Carpet_pissr on Thu May 13, 2010 3:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

LordMortis wrote:
noxiousdog wrote:
If people around you are buying dollars for $1.50, and then it spikes downward to $1.25 would you buy?
If people around me are buying dollars for $1.50 that spiked down to $1.25, I might buy. It would depend on whether I thought people were going to pay more than $1.25 for that dollar later and if I had a good faith that someone was going to me an acceptable token amount of money for possessing that dollar on a regular basis.
To put the downward spike into perspective, NSRGY's 52 week range is $35.27 - $51.63 and it's up 35% in the past 12 months.

Since January it's done worse than the DJIA and the S&P but it's traded fairly closely with them.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by noxiousdog »

LordMortis wrote: If people around me are buying dollars for $1.50 that spiked down to $1.25, I might buy. It would depend on whether I thought people were going to pay more than $1.25 for that dollar later and if I had a good faith that someone was going to me an acceptable token amount of money for possessing that dollar on a regular basis.
I would suggest that buying dollars for $1.25 is always wrong regardless of what anyone else is paying. It's just not necessary to take on that kind of risk.
Black Lives Matter

"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Carpet_pissr wrote: If you are primarily diversified in the US market, unless by diversified, you also mean short, I wonder how "safe" that will be in 2 years? 5 years?

My answer as posted, would be to try and find non-US large caps, with some serious dividend power (Nestle, perhaps! :) Preferably non EU as well, but that really really narrows it down. Some of the larger Brazilian commodities companies look good to me, for instance, or even some Chinese telecom companies maybe.
A US company that does a large or majority of business overseas is a bit of protection against a falling dollar. They will see more foreign business as their prices get cheaper. I guess if a lot of that business is in Europe and the Eurozone implodes too, then you want a company with exposure to Asia. But you don't have to go BRIC or whatever, you can stay in the US markets.
Carpet_pissr wrote: Edit: @Lawbeef: no worries re: PEG comment, I use it much like one would use MSRP...with a BIG grain of salt...still, it can be one of many useful indicators.
I agree, I was just thinking about a particular cable financial "news" host who has a magical ratio (thinking about it, maybe it's actually P/E to revenue growth) that makes something an instant buy or sell.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by noxiousdog »

Carpet_pissr wrote: I hate to keep harping on the same thing, but I think it's important.

Are you diversified across currencies? Meaning, if the dollar becomes the "new peso", how hard hit would your portfolio be?
It wouldn't because I generally choose investments that have significant hard assets that will have pricing power in an inflationary environment.
This is kind of what prompted my initial posts...IF one believes that the large, fiat currencies of the Euro and the Dollar are going to continue to get nailed, what can the individual investor do to protect himself?

Of course, you may believe that we can somehow turn this around, and keep spending without ever having to pay the piper as it were. Or you may have faith that Washington not only sees the impending train wreck, but is actively able AND willing to do something to avert it?
I just don't see it as that big of a risk. Sure, if I was going to retire, turn all my assets into dollars and move overseas, it would be a concern. But that's not happening.
If you are primarily diversified in the US market, unless by diversified, you also mean short, I wonder how "safe" that will be in 2 years? 5 years?
If you owned the Dow 30, I think at last count 33% of their business was outside the US. Even owning DIA gives you significant international exposure.
I don't know, and I hope my tone doesn't color what I fully intend to be neutral questions here. I HAVE NO CLUE. But based on my rudimentary understanding of global finance, we seem to be heading for something that I want to be protected against as much as possible.

My answer as posted, would be to try and find non-US large caps (value), with some serious dividend power (Nestle, perhaps! :) Preferably non EU as well, but that really really narrows it down. Some of the larger Brazilian commodities companies look good to me, for instance, or even some Chinese telecom companies maybe.
I think you overestimate currency risk. They are always going to float against each other, but overall it's fairly irrelevant if you have assets that produce. They are always going to have pricing power.

Are there trading opportunities? Of course there are. But that's not my goal. I want to increase my ownership of strong profit producing companies, though I'm willing to sell them and buy others if people are going to offer me $1.25 for $1. ;)
Black Lives Matter

"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Carpet_pissr »

Yowza, Lawbeef...just looked at your CAPS profile...ranked by stock gain. I hope you put real money into APPL and CBI when you "bought" on CAPS! :D

Let's see...that's about 4 years exactly, with a 475% and 391% gain, respectively. Not sure what that would be annualized, but nice, whatever it is!

Interesting about APPL right now...you see more than a few smart people saying now would be a good time to short it, while others say there is still plenty of room for growth.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Pyperkub »

noxiousdog wrote:If you don't put 10-15 hours per week into this stuff, you're better off with indexes. Find a low cost index mutual fund and just put a fixed amount every month into it.


If you do enjoy putting time into it, there's lots of boards on the motley fool where you can learn. I hit the Berkshire board and the REIT board daily. Benjamin Graham's book The Intelligent Investor is supposed to be required reading, though I read Securities Analysis instead.

Also, keep meticulous records. Learning what you know and what you don't know by keeping score is the best move I ever made.
Are you still working with REIT's, and are there any other good resources you keep an eye on? I'm too cheap to spring for the Fool membership...
Black Lives definitely Matter Lorini!

Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Gavin »

SpaceLord wrote:For tax purposes, Greenblatt suggests buying 5-7 stocks every few months for 1 year, and then selling each stock group 1 year later. For tax purposes, he advocates selling winners a few days before 1 year, and net losses a few days after 1 calendar year.
I thought stocks were taxed differently depending on how long you've held them. I thought 1-year old stocks were taxed at 15% whereas stocks held for shorter amounts of time are taxed higher. I doubt a book devoted to that subject would have missed it so I'd assume I'm wrong here.

I invest heavily in a number of different ways. From 401k and Roth IRA's to mutual funds I find attractive and the occasional specific stocks. I paid for my wedding off of the first direct investment I made (put some money into a penny stock that I read was getting picked up by a major retailer, bam, 400% in two weeks and I was out).

I tie my specific stock investments to a few things. News, size of the company (primarily stock prices), and what business they're in are big in this area. Big news for a small company that sells tangible goods can mean significant margins in the short term (I had to sell my stocks after they reached a certain goal or the bubble from the news would have caught me upon bursting). Long term stock usually just depends on historical performance and current trends. I've done well but I'm still quite young in the investment world so things haven't gained enough momentum yet.

I've been doing around 14% or more annually on my non-specific stocks so I have trouble motivating myself to self-invest. I've hit a few bad years but all in the positive (my best year was 26% average on all investements).

EDIT: Geeze, I thought the thread was 2 pages long when I responded to the OP. My bad.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Carpet_pissr wrote:Yowza, Lawbeef...just looked at your CAPS profile...ranked by stock gain. I hope you put real money into APPL and CBI when you "bought" on CAPS! :D

Let's see...that's about 4 years exactly, with a 475% and 391% gain, respectively. Not sure what that would be annualized, but nice, whatever it is!

Interesting about APPL right now...you see more than a few smart people saying now would be a good time to short it, while others say there is still plenty of room for growth.
Wow, I haven't checked that in a while.

CBI yes. APPL, no :doh: . DIS, yes. Also SIRI, UTX, and GOOG. I think SIRI wasn't eligible for CAPS because of its sub-dollar price. If I could have put it in there at $0.14, man.

Novemer 2008 was historical in terms of good stock buying. Of course I had a lot less money to play with too, and I already had skin in DIS and GOOG.

EDIT: Also CVLT. IIRC dedewhale brought that company to my attention a long time ago. It's gone from a quick trade to an accumulate for me. Latest run has been from $19 to $60s.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by GreenGoo »

I may be looking for some investment advice in the near future, so I thought I'd put this place holder here until I get organized. Also it might stir some new discussion.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis »

GreenGoo wrote:I may be looking for some investment advice in the near future, so I thought I'd put this place holder here until I get organized. Also it might stir some new discussion.
34 more months! (Plus the amount of time it will take to rebuild my savings after I prematurely pay off the last of my debts)
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by noxiousdog »

Pyperkub wrote: Are you still working with REIT's, and are there any other good resources you keep an eye on? I'm too cheap to spring for the Fool membership...
Sorry. Missed this when you posted it.

Fool message boards are free. I don't do any of their paid stuff, and I suspect they game their returns heavily. No proof of that, but it's one of those things that if you have a true system, you can't let out the info.

Only REIT I'd currently recommend is ROIC. Respected management team. Still small making very targeted purchases.
Black Lives Matter

"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by noxiousdog »

Sold half of my Google position today. It's probably fairly valued (and growing 20%), but I figure it's much more likely to see a P/E contraction than a P/E expansion at this point.
Black Lives Matter

"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by nasai »

Well, this may sound "poachy," but I do strictly off market real estate investments in the Seattle area. If anyone is interested in learning more about the market here, or would like some general advice for future endeavors, I'm always available via PM.

My 2 cents today, and probably forever. I hate asking. :doh:
Today I will gladly share my experience and advice, for there are no sweeter words than "I told you so."
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by noxiousdog »

nasai wrote:Well, this may sound "poachy," but I do strictly off market real estate investments in the Seattle area. If anyone is interested in learning more about the market here, or would like some general advice for future endeavors, I'm always available via PM.

My 2 cents today, and probably forever. I hate asking. :doh:
If I were near Seattle I'd be very interested :)
Black Lives Matter

"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by GreenGoo »

I've finally accepted that I won't be touching real estate outside of a fund. I just don't have the wherewithal and committment needed to actually deal in land and/or income properties. Came close to pulling the trigger a few times when I was younger but I've given up the dream.

Still trying to get my head together to figure out what I have available and what I want to do with it before I go asking for advice. I am *completely* disconnected from the market and don't know what's going on outside of major news headlines, which aren't exactly useful for investing.

What sectors should I be spending my time looking into? We can start with that.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by noxiousdog »

GreenGoo wrote:I've finally accepted that I won't be touching real estate outside of a fund. I just don't have the wherewithal and committment needed to actually deal in land and/or income properties. Came close to pulling the trigger a few times when I was younger but I've given up the dream.

Still trying to get my head together to figure out what I have available and what I want to do with it before I go asking for advice. I am *completely* disconnected from the market and don't know what's going on outside of major news headlines, which aren't exactly useful for investing.

What sectors should I be spending my time looking into? We can start with that.
Then you shouldn't worry about it. Buy a broad based index fund and be done with it.

All handwringing and complaining aside, the markets are all basically back to their highs. Consistent contributions to them will grow your wealth. Maybe not as fast as other methods. Certainly not always in the same direction. But they will go up. As long as people are productive and capital begets more capital.

If you're -really- interested in it, decide what kind of investor you want to be. A marketer (buy low sell high), a speculator (this is out of favor today, but will be worth more tomorrow), or a business owner (I can buy this and use the profits.)

Then concentrate on understanding how to do it and identifying opportunities that match your outlook. I'm primarily a business owner with a marketer outlook.
Black Lives Matter

"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by GreenGoo »

Yeah, I need to give you guys some background that I haven't gotten around to, but the short version is that I have multiple "safe" approaches in place so now I've got a little excess that I can play with if I want.

Seriously, all bases are covered, as far as I can tell. RRSP (401k type dealie for Canadians), RESP (education fund for kids), overpayment on mortgage shaving years off it, cash reserves for emergencies, zero consumer debt so no need to figure out which debt is costing me the most, pension is pensioning...might be forgetting something. Oh, we have something called a tax free savings account now, which is another way to grow money tax free (contributions are capped) that I need to set up, but I have money set aside for that, so it's really just pulling the trigger that needs to be done. Car is owned in full. Mortgage renegotiated down to some crazy low rate, meanwhile the Bank of Canada is keeping interest rates bottomed out. Money set aside for some home improvement projects this summer. So I have multiple auto-contributions each month to various savings and retirement vehicles, plus other stuff.

After all that I have some cash that I can play with.

As far as what kind of investor I want to be, that's part of this process. It's play money, so highly aggressive growth could be fun. Or I could just drop it into a dividend paying blue chip and leave it there. It's not a crazy amount, only about $10k or so, but it's sitting there earning like 0.00001% in the bank or whatever they're paying.

I don't know how I want to approach it yet.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by noxiousdog »

GreenGoo wrote: As far as what kind of investor I want to be, that's part of this process. It's play money, so highly aggressive growth could be fun. Or I could just drop it into a dividend paying blue chip and leave it there. It's not a crazy amount, only about $10k or so, but it's sitting there earning like 0.00001% in the bank or whatever they're paying.

I don't know how I want to approach it yet.
Neither of those are a type of investor. You can do both of them inside a larger strategy.
Black Lives Matter

"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by GreenGoo »

noxiousdog wrote:
GreenGoo wrote: As far as what kind of investor I want to be, that's part of this process. It's play money, so highly aggressive growth could be fun. Or I could just drop it into a dividend paying blue chip and leave it there. It's not a crazy amount, only about $10k or so, but it's sitting there earning like 0.00001% in the bank or whatever they're paying.

I don't know how I want to approach it yet.
Neither of those are a type of investor. You can do both of them inside a larger strategy.
K. I assumed you were talking about risk/risk aversion. If you're talking about specific types of investments, the answer is still I don't know. If you are talking about something else again, please explain because I clearly don't know what you're talking about.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by noxiousdog »

GreenGoo wrote: K. I assumed you were talking about risk/risk aversion. If you're talking about specific types of investments, the answer is still I don't know. If you are talking about something else again, please explain because I clearly don't know what you're talking about.
Noxiousdog wrote:If you're -really- interested in it, decide what kind of investor you want to be. A marketer (buy low sell high), a speculator (this is out of favor today, but will be worth more tomorrow), or a business owner (I can buy this and use the profits.)
A marketer is like a real estate flipper. They have no intention of the cash flows of an investment. All they care about is that the items value is likely to be higher at a different time for whatever reason. It may be due to distress. It may be due to improvements.

A speculator is betting the environment will change and are willing to front the cash for a payoff later. These are your venture capitalists and momentum traders.

Business owners are interested in owning property or businesses in return for the cash flow that it generates. It can intrinsic (like Berkshire Hathaway) or realized (high dividend payer).


None of these are hard and fast. There's always some crossover. None are intrinsically better as long as you have more information than the next guy. But you need to have some mental makeup for the process, and interest in being better than the guy you're buying from or selling to.
Black Lives Matter

"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Well, your government gutted the old energy trusts (the ones that weren't sold to China anyway). They were a nice source of income and appreciation. :lol: Not sure what the new rules are, I haven't looked back but I do hear they are having a bit of a resurrection.



If I had to keep it short, I think I can distill it down to three things. The first two are pretty common bits of advice:

1. Invest in what you know.
I don't mean only invest in tech if you're a tech guy. I mean if you invest in pharmaceuticals, you should have a general idea about the pharma sector. What the FDA hurdles are, how drug trials work, etc. You don't have to be an expert but you should know enough to feel comfortable reading through an SEC filing or a prospectus. Anything you don't understand, research. FWIW, I have a pretty good handle on a lot of that, work in health care, and I still don't feel comfortable with pharma stocks.

This also goes for the basics. For example, if you don't know the difference between a stock and a bond or a 8K and a 10Q, you shouldn't be investing in companies just yet. Once you know how publically traded companies are...publically traded, then you can go on to the task of picking a particular investment or fund.

Now mind you, you don't have to be an expert, just well informed. I don't know how the Terga chip works but I know enough about chips to understand what nVidia is talking about on an earnings call. Likewise, I know enough to know that I don't know enough about the LCD/TFT business so that when someone tells me I have to buy NTE on a 5% pullback, I stick it in the "to be researched" pile. Don't go in unprepared. It's better to let 'er go than to stumble in after it.

Which kind of leads into #2, pretty much stolen straight from Warren Buffett.

2. There are no called strikes.
Everyone has the one that got away. I think I had 3 last week alone. But here's the thing about the market, there's a new opportunity every day. You lose nothing by passing on an investment. If you're not sure, don't jump in blind. You can sit there all day with the bat on your shoulder waiting for the perfect pitch. You still might swing and miss but at least you stacked the odds more in your favor.

A trap a lot of people get into is being guided that burning sensation in the pit of their stomach caused by thinking about the 82% gain they just missed out on either by not buying or selling early. That's not missed opportunity, that's data. Learn from it. At the very least, tally it because once you've seen it 20 times it doesn't seem like such a life changing event.

The third is pretty much my own, though I'm sure it's not all that original:

3. You are a small mongrel grabbing scraps from the table of gods.
Don't forget that. The game is set up for them to win, no matter what. Take what you can get. Don't try to beat the elite sitting at the table. Try to beat other investors. Or better yet, just try to get a little nibble here and there and let someone else get bloodied fighting for the scraps. And realize that, no matter what, the whole time you are also tithing to the gods of the table. You cannot avoid this. Consider yourself fortunate that you aren't outside in the cold. Don't get me wrong, I don't worship them but it is foolish to think that the retail investor isn't at a huge disadvantage. If you accept this it will avoid the futile act of trying beat the ones who make the rules.

Imagine a competitive FPS shooter. Imagine that one group of players sits at home and uses the internet to connect to servers to duke it out. That's us.

The other group of players sits in the server room, playing directly on the servers. They also write the code, design the levels, have admin powers, and get special unlocks. And a lot of times they even decide to run trainers. That's the investement banks and professional traders.

You can't expect to be in the same league as them, but you can still have a good K:D ratio if you pick your battles. The old cliche still works, "Bulls make money, bears make money, hogs get slaughtered."





Try reading this. A report like that is recommended reading for any stock you invest in. If you manage to read it to the end (or if you don't want to wast time on ATVI, pick the most recent annual report for a company you're interested in) with a fairly high rate of comprehension, have the basics.

Finally, since you're in Canada, you may be better off in Canadian markets. Not sure with your tax rate up there. If so, the specifics might be different but the same general principles apply.
Last edited by LawBeefaroni on Tue Feb 19, 2013 10:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by nasai »

LawBeefaroni wrote:You lose nothing by passing on an investment.
So true. If only I could slow some of my less seasoned clients down. This is the best prescription anyone can hear. That said, vet out the scenario and move forward or don't. Those that do the whole analysis/paralysis thing drive me nuts.
Today I will gladly share my experience and advice, for there are no sweeter words than "I told you so."
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

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noxiousdog wrote:
GreenGoo wrote: K. I assumed you were talking about risk/risk aversion. If you're talking about specific types of investments, the answer is still I don't know. If you are talking about something else again, please explain because I clearly don't know what you're talking about.
Noxiousdog wrote:If you're -really- interested in it, decide what kind of investor you want to be. A marketer (buy low sell high), a speculator (this is out of favor today, but will be worth more tomorrow), or a business owner (I can buy this and use the profits.)
A marketer is like a real estate flipper. They have no intention of the cash flows of an investment. All they care about is that the items value is likely to be higher at a different time for whatever reason. It may be due to distress. It may be due to improvements.

A speculator is betting the environment will change and are willing to front the cash for a payoff later. These are your venture capitalists and momentum traders.

Business owners are interested in owning property or businesses in return for the cash flow that it generates. It can intrinsic (like Berkshire Hathaway) or realized (high dividend payer).


None of these are hard and fast. There's always some crossover. None are intrinsically better as long as you have more information than the next guy. But you need to have some mental makeup for the process, and interest in being better than the guy you're buying from or selling to.
Sorry ND, I owe you an apology. I didn't really have time to post what I wanted to but wanted to get some discussion going so I just posted a little as time allowed. As such I must have only skimmed your post and missed what you wrote.

I will review and read LB's post and get back to you guys.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by noxiousdog »

noxiousdog wrote: Only REIT I'd currently recommend is ROIC. Respected management team. Still small making very targeted purchases.
4th quarter earnings are in, and in-line with what I expected. Dividend was raised again (to .15/quarter from .14/quarter). It's now yielding 4.69%.

REITs are a little different than most stocks in that earnings are fairly irrelevant. Because property is expensed (as depreciation) on an earnings sheet it looks like REITs don't make any money. However, in reality, the land typically becomes more valuable, not less. As such the metrics one should look at are FFO (funds from operations; ie rents/leases), AFFO (adjusted ffo; ie rents/leases minus maintenance), and NAV (net asset value; how much the property worth on the open market). The latter of those is typically only available through an agency, though Greenstreet advisors has a lot of public data.

Anyway, point being, ROIC grew FFO at about 17% last year, and expects to do another 10% next year. There's a lot of wonderment on the REIT board on The Motley Fool about why people aren't paying more attention to this stock. Ralph Block was a professional investor for a number of years before he retired and wrote a book, Investing in REITS, and had a large amount of his personal money in it. I've been following his advice (though, not always) for a number of years (longer than 5) and managed a 15% annualized return in the sector. He's very active on the Motley Fool message boards.

For those who want something more exciting, one of the issues behind ROIC's issues is they wrote a large number of warrants about a year ago to raise some capital. Those expire in October of 2014. They are trading for hardly any time premium at the moment. 1 share of ROICW can be converted into 1 share of ROIC at any time before Oct 2014. Price of ROICW is .82, price of ROIC is 12.78. On the downside, you aren't collecting that 4.69% dividend. Ralph, despite being a VERY conservative investor, has bought both the warrants and the common stock.

The last three times I was this excited about a stock, it was WFC at 8.5, Berkshire B's at 71, and Google at 590.

Just sayin'
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

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Been a bit of a week and some workplace stress, so my head is not in the right place. I'll return when I have some time to think about it.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

noxiousdog wrote:
noxiousdog wrote: Only REIT I'd currently recommend is ROIC. Respected management team. Still small making very targeted purchases.
4th quarter earnings are in, and in-line with what I expected. Dividend was raised again (to .15/quarter from .14/quarter). It's now yielding 4.69%.

REITs are a little different than most stocks in that earnings are fairly irrelevant. Because property is expensed (as depreciation) on an earnings sheet it looks like REITs don't make any money. However, in reality, the land typically becomes more valuable, not less. As such the metrics one should look at are FFO (funds from operations; ie rents/leases), AFFO (adjusted ffo; ie rents/leases minus maintenance), and NAV (net asset value; how much the property worth on the open market). The latter of those is typically only available through an agency, though Greenstreet advisors has a lot of public data.

Anyway, point being, ROIC grew FFO at about 17% last year, and expects to do another 10% next year. There's a lot of wonderment on the REIT board on The Motley Fool about why people aren't paying more attention to this stock. Ralph Block was a professional investor for a number of years before he retired and wrote a book, Investing in REITS, and had a large amount of his personal money in it. I've been following his advice (though, not always) for a number of years (longer than 5) and managed a 15% annualized return in the sector. He's very active on the Motley Fool message boards.

For those who want something more exciting, one of the issues behind ROIC's issues is they wrote a large number of warrants about a year ago to raise some capital. Those expire in October of 2014. They are trading for hardly any time premium at the moment. 1 share of ROICW can be converted into 1 share of ROIC at any time before Oct 2014. Price of ROICW is .82, price of ROIC is 12.78. On the downside, you aren't collecting that 4.69% dividend. Ralph, despite being a VERY conservative investor, has bought both the warrants and the common stock.

The last three times I was this excited about a stock, it was WFC at 8.5, Berkshire B's at 71, and Google at 590.

Just sayin'
From a quick glance:
FFOs are typically paid as dividends and it looks like ROIC is paying all FFO as dividend 4Q FFO of $0.15/share, dividend of $0.15/share. So FFOs only add to share price in that they are the dividend making shares more attractive to income investors.

The warrants look straight forward (1:1) and have a $12 strike. They're quite a drag on the PPS IMO with the potential dillutive effect. The $0.82 price ($0.07 time value to expiration, though I'm not sure how to factor in the FFO/divs) doesn't telegraph a whole ton of positive sentiment.

WRF, BRK-B and GOOG are huge blue chippers. ROIC might be good but I wouldn't put it in the same class as those big boys. Like I said, though, that was a quick glance. I'll spend some more time on it at lunch.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by noxiousdog »

LawBeefaroni wrote: From a quick glance:
FFOs are typically paid as dividends and it looks like ROIC is paying all FFO as dividend 4Q FFO of $0.15/share, dividend of $0.15/share. So FFOs only add to share price in that they are the dividend making shares more attractive to income investors.
FFO adds to share price as earnings add to share price. They are fairly equivalent. Dividends are correlated, but it's just coincidence that they are matched, and a positive sign actually. Management is clearly indicating quickly rising FFO and normally dividends are smaller than FFO.

examples
KIM: $1.26 of FFO, $0.96 of dividends.
SPG: $2.29 of FFO, $4.20 of dividends. (one of the reasons I got out of SPG. looks unsustainable to me)
The warrants look straight forward (1:1) and have a $12 strike. They're quite a drag on the PPS IMO with the potential dillutive effect. The $0.82 price ($0.07 time value to expiration, though I'm not sure how to factor in the FFO/divs) doesn't telegraph a whole ton of positive sentiment.
Yeah, it really doesn't. But that could change quickly. I'm glad there's 6 more quarters before they expire ;)

The downside on them is really limited though.
WRF, BRK-B and GOOG are huge blue chippers. ROIC might be good but I wouldn't put it in the same class as those big boys. Like I said, though, that was a quick glance. I'll spend some more time on it at lunch.
Of course not. Not implying they are at all.

More in depth article at seeking alpha.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Did a bit of reading on ROIC. Personally I'm passing on this one. The high institutional ownership is nice but those same institutions also own a bunch of the warrants (around 40M public warrants I think?). They could play both sides, optimizing their own gain at the expense of any retail holders of the shares. Short interest seems high. With the PIPE and warrants I don't like how much influence they have on this one.

The recent exercise by NRDC Capital Management, on Feb 1, added 8M 688K shares (8M private placement warrants retired by NRDC, 688,500 shares issued to NRDC by ROIC to cover the $1.13 PPS difference). It's good to have those $12 warrants gone but there are still 40M or so out there.
[EDIT: re-reading this, it may not be all that clear to someone following along. NRDC retired their 8M warrants fro the 688,500 shares. Their 8M $12 warrants with a current share price of $13.13 were worth 8Mx$1.13 = $9,040,000. So to retire the warrants, ROIC issued 688,500 shares and gave them to NRDC. ROIC retired 8M warrants, NRDC got their $9M that the warrants were worth if exercised at current value (without having to spend $96M to exercise them), and the shareholders got 688K shares more added to the float. The same thing can't happen with the public warrants, just these private placement warrants./EDIT]

The fundamentals of ROIC look really good, the div is nice, but the stock/warrant structure and ongoing financing put me off.

This doesn't mean I think it's necessarily a bad investment, it's just not for me. What I do understand of the warrant situation I don't like. If I'm missing something, even more reason for me to stay out. And I'm only saying this to give some insight into my decision making as per the thread, not to dissaude ND.
Last edited by LawBeefaroni on Thu Feb 21, 2013 4:49 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by noxiousdog »

LawBeefaroni wrote: The fundamentals of ROIC look really good, the div is nice, but the stock/warrant structure and ongoing financing put me off.

This doesn't mean I think it's necessarily a bad investment, it's just not for me. What I do understand of the warrant situation I don't like. If I'm missing something, even more reason for me to stay out. And I'm only saying this to give some insight into my decision making as per the thread, not to dissaude ND.
Right. And as mentioned earlier, you and I have a different investment strategy.

To me, the fundamentals, dividend and their cost is what's important. I couldn't care less if it takes 2 years or 10 years for it to be fairly valued. (warrants excluded. that's obviously a gamble). Your timeframe is shorter.

Also, any warrant exercise will add $12/share the cash coffers, so it's not as dilutive as it first looks.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

noxiousdog wrote:
LawBeefaroni wrote: The fundamentals of ROIC look really good, the div is nice, but the stock/warrant structure and ongoing financing put me off.

This doesn't mean I think it's necessarily a bad investment, it's just not for me. What I do understand of the warrant situation I don't like. If I'm missing something, even more reason for me to stay out. And I'm only saying this to give some insight into my decision making as per the thread, not to dissaude ND.
Right. And as mentioned earlier, you and I have a different investment strategy.

To me, the fundamentals, dividend and their cost is what's important. I couldn't care less if it takes 2 years or 10 years for it to be fairly valued. (warrants excluded. that's obviously a gamble). Your timeframe is shorter.

Also, any warrant exercise will add $12/share the cash coffers, so it's not as dilutive as it first looks.
Even though I tend to have a shorter timeframe in general I still wouldn't buy as a long term investment until after the 2014 public warrant expiration date. Too much uncertainty IMO. That undermines any of the fundamentals and income. If I were creative enough and if there were any options volume I think there may be some kind of buy put/buy warrant strategy but eh.

I guess we'll see in a few years. If one of us has to be wrong, I hope it's me since I'm on the sidelines here. :wink:
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

noxiousdog wrote:
Also, any warrant exercise will add $12/share the cash coffers, so it's not as dilutive as it first looks.
Oh, and on this, the higher the stock is on exercise, the more dillutive it will be. If it's $12, it will be a wash (of course no one would exercise either). If it's $16, you'd have $160,000,000 of "dillution" ($16x40M shares issued for $12x40M in proceeds). I think they auto-exercise at $18 something to there's an upper limit but that's why they're still an overhang.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by noxiousdog »

LawBeefaroni wrote:
noxiousdog wrote:
Also, any warrant exercise will add $12/share the cash coffers, so it's not as dilutive as it first looks.
Oh, and on this, the higher the stock is on exercise, the more dillutive it will be. If it's $12, it will be a wash (of course no one would exercise either). If it's $16, you'd have $160,000,000 of "dillution" ($16x40M shares issued for $12x40M in proceeds). I think they auto-exercise at $18 something to there's an upper limit but that's why they're still an overhang.
This is really interesting and I have given it a lot of thought. I'm doing this exercise for my benefit more than any convincing.

I guess it really comes down to how to value REITs, because there are so many ways.
1) NAV. This is probably the best, but it's also the most inaccurate.
2) Price/AFFO. Easier, but harder to account for growth.
3) Yield. Worst of the three for precision, but does offer real return regardless of market opinion.

NAV
ROIC has invested $580M in 3.7M sq feet of property. Leases and rent provided $51M minus interest expense of 6M for a rough cap rate of 7.7% which is slightly lower than most commercial real estate, though maybe Nasai could give us the amounts he works with ;) Listening to the conference call, they made note of several properties they bought at 6% cap rates and were able to improve the properties and leases so now they are in the 8-11% return range. Also, keep in mind that 40% of their acquisitions took place in 2012, so they did not receive the full operating benefit of those properties. That will push their cap rate significantly higher. So with NAV at least $580M (probably higher) and a market cap of 680M, it's trading at no worse than a nav premium of 17%. A 20% NAV premium is in line with a quality REIT such as Kimco or Simon. Those do have longer track records, but Stuart Tanz has a previous tenure to justify it, imo. The conservative NAV/share is currently 10.96. The warrants would be accreditive to NAV in this scenario.

2) Price/AFFO
This is more complicated and requires comparison to other REITs.

3) Yield
I follow the following REITs. Most of them have been chosen by the collective wisdom of the REIT board of The Motley Fool.
REIT - Yield
AVB - 3.02%
KIM - 3.91%
SPG - 2.28%
VTR - 3.86%
ROIC - 4.69%
VNO - 3.46%
REG - 3.62%

Not only is ROIC paying a higher dividend than all of them, they are growing FFO at 10% per year, and have raised the dividend 46% annualized since inception. It was raised twice in 2012, and already once more in 2013.
I also follow their historical valuations (10 year history, caveat ROIC only has 3 years.) All of the above are trading lower (more expensive) than their median yields. Not only is ROIC trading cheaper than it's median, it's never been cheaper than it is now on a yield basis. The only reason for this is the warrants. However, we've already demonstrated that the capital from the warrants can be deployed to new properties. Yes, it's likely it will take some time to do so, as they are hoping for $250M of purchases, and the warrants will give them $480M of capital (turned into 1.2B of land purchases due to 40% leverage targets).

If they were to currently go to the equity markets (which they have - $1.5M worth in 2012 at market price, $77.2M in Dec 2011 at 10.85/share), they would be raising equity only 7% higher than what the warrants would raise. That's significantly less than borrowing costs for properties which is part of the standard business plan. Certainly there's a question of how much capital can be deployed at once, but it's unlikely that takes longer than a few years to deploy. Worst case, they can distribute it as a return of capital. Regardless, it still translates into a higher dividend per share even after they are exercised.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

For me the question would be can I do better than 4.69% annualized for the year and a half or so that the warrants will keep ROIC in a fairly narrow range? Because I see it in the $12.50-$13.50 range right around warrant expiration.

If I saw it much higher, I'd buy the warrants.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by pr0ner »

Geez, the REIT I own pays a 12.02% yield.

To each their own, I suppose.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by noxiousdog »

pr0ner wrote:Geez, the REIT I own pays a 12.02% yield.

To each their own, I suppose.
That's like saying the equity you own pays x yield. Any REIT that pays 12% is likely a mortgage reit. Nothing wrong with that, but it's an entirely different animal.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

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I'm reading along.

Also, I have a co-worker who is quite good at his job. Unfortunately he likes to be the smartest guy in the room, and he has no formal education and doesn't believe in it, so there are gaping holes in his knowledge outside of his job. He is constantly touting his lottery win stock, which was basically a lucky pick *and* he doesn't understand how to calculate an accurate return, so the numbers he claims don't add up, but good luck explaining that to the "smartest guy in the room". It makes me laugh and annoys the crap out of me at the same time.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Carpet_pissr »

Be thankful for him. We need people exactly like that to be able to make money in the market. The more the better. :)


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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by GreenGoo »

Carpet_pissr wrote:Be thankful for him. We need people exactly like that to be able to make money in the market. The more the better. :)


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I'd mention that to him, but he's a "break even" investor. Like most gamblers.

He's also a really good guy, he's just got a chip on his shoulder the size of Manhattan, which overcomes my tolerance at times.

For the record, I know almost nothing too.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Carpet_pissr »

Aaaaaand, there goes the market due to what appears to be an inevitable plunge over the fiscal cliff on Friday. Noice.

Our so called leaders (BOTH side of the aisle, people) are awesome.

FUCK. I knew better than to be fully invested right now, and I got greedy, not believing they would let this happen. Since I am not a trader, I am not overly concerned that things will come back at some point, BUT it sure would have been nice to be sitting on a big wad of cash when this thing goes down...and then just buy like a fiend when the shit hits the fan.

/Farley: STOOPID, STOOPID, STOOPID!!
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