The Art of the Donald Trumpocalypse

[GreenGoo]

Don't you live off of the Federal Government teat?

What a stupid thing to say. If Rmn9 lives off the fed's teat, then most of the military industrial complex does too.

That's the (half) joke.

https://www.google.com/?gws_rd=ssl#q=ho ... n+military

Ah. I didn't think Rmn9 worked for a military contractor. My bad.

[Holman]

Trump just thanked South Dakota for giving him 67% of the vote.

---

In other tweets...

[gbasden]

Mostly it's about the Supreme Court and the clear and immediate danger she poses to the 2nd Amendment and States rights issues. She's said she intends to use the court and her appointees to go after the 2nd Amendment.

I'm honestly, genuinely curious about this, so please don't take this as an attack. I'm really interested in what you think she wants to do. There have been arguments as long as I've been paying attention to politics that the democrats are going to swoop in and take your guns. Is this about he (agreed that it's stupid) assault weapons ban? I know it's good for gun manufacturers, but there's continued talk about Obama taking guns and it just seems delusional. What am I missing?

[Kraken]

Might our slow rate of growth actually be sustainable past the usual drop-dead date? Only time will tell. I don't hear the pop-the-bubble drumbeat that I heard in 1999 and 2007.

It's already long in the tooth...nobody's predicting a recession tomorrow, but within the next four years? Very likely. The business cycle turns largely on expectations.

[RunningMn9]

Ah. I didn't think Rmn9 worked for a military contractor. My bad.

My association is a bit tighter than that. I don't work for a company like General Dynamics. I work for a contracting company that directly contracts my skills to the US Army (thus I work on an Army base amongst DoD civilians).

Kraken, I don't know that I expect anything different. My point was simply in relation to the Sen's tweet that four more years would be intolerable.

[Isgrimnur]

Might our slow rate of growth actually be sustainable past the usual drop-dead date? Only time will tell. I don't hear the pop-the-bubble drumbeat that I heard in 1999 and 2007.

It's already long in the tooth...nobody's predicting a recession tomorrow, but within the next four years? Very likely. The business cycle turns largely on expectations.

One of the funniest things that I've ever read was Chapter 1 of my economics textbook in college: "Economics is a science." I laughed for a good five minutes straight.

[Scraper]

Mostly it's about the Supreme Court and the clear and immediate danger she poses to the 2nd Amendment and States rights issues. She's said she intends to use the court and her appointees to go after the 2nd Amendment.

I'm honestly, genuinely curious about this, so please don't take this as an attack. I'm really interested in what you think she wants to do. There have been arguments as long as I've been paying attention to politics that the democrats are going to swoop in and take your guns. Is this about he (agreed that it's stupid) assault weapons ban? I know it's good for gun manufacturers, but there's continued talk about Obama taking guns and it just seems delusional. What am I missing?

My guess is you won't get a good answer, outside of some random sound bites that don't really cover her articlulated answers on the issues. Here's what Politifact has to say on the issue . http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter ... on-wants-/

Basically she would continue Obama's approach.

[malchior]

Might our slow rate of growth actually be sustainable past the usual drop-dead date? Only time will tell. I don't hear the pop-the-bubble drumbeat that I heard in 1999 and 2007.

It's already long in the tooth...nobody's predicting a recession tomorrow, but within the next four years? Very likely. The business cycle turns largely on expectations.

One of the funniest things that I've ever read was Chapter 1 of my economics textbook in college: "Economics is a science." I laughed for a good five minutes straight.

it is called the dismal science for a reason.

That said i strongly disagree with the premise that recessions are about expectations. Almost every recession involves some sort of underlying monetary or fundamental (mis)allocation of capital issue that becomes pretty apparent looking in hindsight.

[PLW]

Me too... I think turns in expectations affect the timing, but the underlying pressure comes from real problems.

[Isgrimnur]

That may be, but it's all tied to the eventual realization or actualization that the current method is unsustainable. When values are primarily controlled by fiat, it's when the market is finally convinced that things aren't worth the current value that things begin to slide. IT industry prices and wages in '99, and real estate and their derivatives in 2007.

[Zaxxon]

This thought experiment shows how outrageous Donald Trump's bigotry really is.

[Carpet_pissr]

Point about pending recession is a good one...we are overdue for sure, so whoever occupies the White House will get the blame (unfairly, but that's the way the optics work).

IMO, the whole reason both Sanders and Trump are doing so well is because of the disenfranchised, under-educated, under-skilled mid to low income class who got left behind when the economy transformed.

Heard a very good caller on NPR this morning, I think from Kentucky. Very thick, Southern accent, said he originally backed (and voted for) Bernie, but switching to Trump now that Clinton has clenched the nomination. I fear this guy is not alone. Strangely enough, IMO Sanders and Trump speak to the same, core issue that troubles so many Americans - loss of job stability, no visible way "up the ladder", no hope for home ownership anytime soon.

PART of that of course can be attributed to globalization - good manufacturing jobs move offshore, and the laid off workers are not able to pivot. On top of that, our government has done nothing to address their needs for re-training, re-SKILLING, etc. It's not like they can go from working on a line in the Carrier plant, to being a knowledge worker, so they are in a lot of ways, screwed. Maybe their kids will have a better future, but there are a LOT of people left behind out there, and they are angry.

[Zarathud]

Expectations affect allocations and valuations with liquid markets, so in many respects it's inevitably interconnected.

[malchior]

I agree with all that and there are what i call 'millenial economics' issues as well. You have kids who were told...go to college..you need to be a knowledge worker or else you will be left behind. Consequently they wracked up ridiculous sums of debt and then got low paying jobs. Which was a devils bargain. No college and a life of starbucks. Or college and a chance at more while still having that Starbucks job to make ends meet.

I used to work at a College and have kept in touch with many of my former student workers. Almost all of them are struggling to some degree. Anecdotally i can say that many of them got degrees and their first job salary was almost always less now in nominal dollars than what i made as a college dropout in 1996. It is absurd. So they are living 3 or 4 to an apartment, struggle to save with their crazy loan payments, and have a far more dismal path. They are pretty angry too but i see them sticking to Hillary though.

[Kraken]

Expectations affect allocations and valuations with liquid markets, so in many respects it's inevitably interconnected.

Sure, and managers forgo hiring, investment, or inventory building if they expect sales to cool during the next quarter. Those expectations can be driven by financial realities, or by aggregate expectations (herd mentality) within their industry. Electing Donald Trump in November would affect people's economic expectations dramatically, and not for the better. Markets and managers hate that kind of uncertainty.

[Zarathud]

We are seeing commoditization and devaluation of "know-how" jobs requiring light to moderate skills and a less than college education. We're also seeing fewer college level job openings. It's a terrible squeeze from globalization, technology and management views.

The first two are easy, but the "management" view is that the "brand" drives value without thought to quality, service or convenience. I'm even seeing this level of misguidedness in law firms where the only thing is to compete on price, and nothing else matters. That's a losing proposition for the US economy.

While Trump businesses try to sell luxury, it's often an illusion created by the Donald and backed up by his litigious nature and willingness to screw over his business partners.

[naednek]

I'm about 2 pages behind, I can only take so much Trump discussion. I force myself to read one page in this thread and then move on till the next day.

But I had to post my observation from last night's Trump Speech after winning yesterday's primaries. I don't know if this is new, but it was new to me. During his speech last night he kept talking about American First and how American jobs will be first rather than shipping them off over seas. I kept thinking of House of Cards and Frank Underwood's pet project America Works. Both guys seem to be similiar in that they are conniving weasels who will do and say anything to have power

[malchior]

We are seeing commoditization and devaluation of "know-how" jobs requiring light to moderate skills and a less than college education. We're also seeing fewer college level job openings. It's a terrible squeeze from globalization, technology and management views.

Even worse there is a trend towards outsourcing certain types of knowledge work. J and J has for instance increasingly outsourced R&D work overseas. There really is a race to the bottom.

The first two are easy, but the "management" view is that the "brand" drives value without thought to quality, service or convenience. I'm even seeing this level of misguidedness in law firms where the only thing is to compete on price, and nothing else matters. That's a losing proposition for the US economy.

I also see this in areas which literally make no sense. For instance IT security engineering being outsourced routinely to India. I can't wrap my head around that. How about we manage IT risk by doing incredibly risky things?

[stessier]

Point about pending recession is a good one...we are overdue for sure, so whoever occupies the White House will get the blame (unfairly, but that's the way the optics work).

IMO, the whole reason both Sanders and Trump are doing so well is because of the disenfranchised, under-educated, under-skilled mid to low income class who got left behind when the economy transformed.

It's been shown repeatedly that Trumps supporters are well educated (finished college) and make more than $75k/year.

[malchior]

It's been shown repeatedly that Trumps supporters are well educated (finished college) and make more than $75k/year.

That was believed early on. Aggregate exit poll data showed he did best with older white, males without any college education and incomes under 50k. I am on my phone and cant link it but it was an Atlantic article sometime in early May if you are curious.

The conclusion if i remember it right was blue collar rallied around Trump and the White collar guys all had different 'guys' which spelled their doom. And that makes sense. Trump early on kept running a thin plurality.

[Skinypupy]

It's been shown repeatedly that Trumps supporters are well educated (finished college) and make more than $75k/year.

That was believed early on. Aggregate exit poll data showed he did best with older white, males without any college education and incomes under 50k. I am on my phone and cant link it but it was an Atlantic article sometime in early May if you are curious.

The conclusion if i remember it right was blue collar rallied around Trump and the White collar guys all had different 'guys' which spelled their doom. And that makes sense. Trump early on kept running a thin plurality.

This is from December

Looking at the demographic makeup of Trump supporters, a more precise picture takes shape.

According to the Stanford University Hoover Institution study from September, Trump supporters are for the most part older and under-educated. Only 2% of supporters are under 30 and around 33% are over 65. Only 19% have a college degree and about 50% have a high-school diploma.

A Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) survey from mid-November showed a majority, 55%, of Trump supporters to be white and working class. Among that group, the most likely voters were men between the ages of 50-64 with a high-school education.

[Isgrimnur]

Over 65. Born 1951 or before. What happened to the Silent Generation and the early Boomers?

[Max Peck]

I have no idea who "Arbiter News" is (or what their bias, if any, might be), but at least they cite sources for their numbers (not that I'm conscientious enough to vet the citations).

Gender

• 42% of Trump supporters are female (MSNBC poll)
• 58% male (MSNBC poll)

Age

• 2% are under 30 (Real Clear Politics, YouGov)
• 14% are between the ages of 30 and 44 (Real Clear Politics, YouGov)
• About 50% are between the ages of 45 and 64 (Real Clear Politics, YouGov)
• 34% are 65 and over (Real Clear Politics, YouGov)

Race

• 91% White (MSNBC poll)

Income

• 33% earn under $50K (MSNBC poll)
• 72% earn under $100K (MSNBC poll)
• 28% earn over $100K (MSNBC poll) / 11% earn over $100K (Real Clear Politics, YouGov)

Education

• 43% have a high school degree or less (MSNBC poll)
• 19% have a college or postgraduate degree (Real Clear Politics, YouGov)

Ideology

• 65% describe themselves as “conservative” (Real Clear Politics, YouGov)
• 20% describe themselves as “liberal” or “moderate” (Real Clear Politics, YouGov)
• 13% describe themselves as “very conservative” (Real Clear Politics, YouGov)
• 32% involved with the Tea Party movement (Public Policy Polling)
• 82% support Trump’s proposed ban on Muslims entering the U.S., compared to 54% of Republicans (Public Policy Polling)
• 64% believe that U.S. Muslims should be subject to more scrutiny (Pew Research Center)
• 66% believe President Obama is a Muslim (Public Policy Polling)
• 61% think President Obama was not born in the US (Public Policy Polling)
• 41% are in favor of bombing Agrabah, the fictional country from Aladdin (Public Policy Polling)
• 69% believe that immigrants are a burden on our country (Pew Research Center)
• 53% say abortion should be illegal in all or most cases (Pew Research Center)
• 75% believe that, compared to 50 years ago, life for people like them is worse (Pew Research Center)
• 48% rate their current economic condition as “poor”, compared to 33% or less of supporters of any other candidate (Pew Research Center)
• 50% are angry with the government, compared to 35% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters (Pew Research Center)
• 73% believe that Social Security benefits should not be reduced, compared to 71% of all voters (Pew Research Center)
• 14% believe that it is the government’s responsibility to ensure everyone has healthcare (Pew Research Center)
• 27% believe that free trade is good for the U.S. (Pew Research Center)

[Defiant]

IMO, the whole reason both Sanders and Trump are doing so well is because of the disenfranchised, under-educated, under-skilled mid to low income class who got left behind when the economy transformed.

That's true of Trump. It's less true of Sanders (though there are certainly some that fall into that camp):
1. A lot of exit polls (eg, OH, Il, MI, NY, PA, southern states, etc) show Clinton winning the income of the lowest income (and doing better among them then other income levels). That's not consistent, though, and she also does well among the rich.
2. Sanders tends to do well with those with some college education or a college degree, while Clinton tends to do well with those with less education, as well as postgrads, though again, it's inconsistent.
3. A lot of Sanders voters are younger voters who weren't around back then to get left behind.

[Carpet_pissr]

3. A lot of Sanders voters are younger voters who weren't around back then to get left behind.

True, but see Malchior's post above. The young millenials attracted to Bernie are not angry because they lost their mfg jobs, they are disillusioned because they are still living in their parents house, trying to pay off their college loan, which did not land them a job that could support "the American Dream".

Both groups are different, but in a way, they are very similar because they lack hope for the future. They feel like they were betrayed somehow, like they are not getting the life they they expected for an educated/skilled worker in post-modern America. Our middle class is becoming thinner and thinner, and more are slipping down, than climbing up.

[Captain Caveman]

3. A lot of Sanders voters are younger voters who weren't around back then to get left behind.

True, but see Malchior's post above. The young millenials attracted to Bernie are not angry because they lost their mfg jobs, they are disillusioned because they are still living in their parents house, trying to pay off their college loan, which did not land them a job that could support "the American Dream".

The age thing is something to keep in mind when comparing the income levels of different candidate supporters. One reason Trump supporters may have a surprisingly high average income is that they skew old (and white), which are correlated with higher incomes.

[tgb]

Mr. Fed made Rolling Stone.

Unfortunately not the cover.

[GreenGoo]

Mr. Fed made Rolling Stone.

Unfortunately not the cover.

Mortoned. I suspect Fed would agree.

[ericb]

3. A lot of Sanders voters are younger voters who weren't around back then to get left behind.

True, but see Malchior's post above. The young millenials attracted to Bernie are not angry because they lost their mfg jobs, they are disillusioned because they are still living in their parents house, trying to pay off their college loan, which did not land them a job that could support "the American Dream".

Both groups are different, but in a way, they are very similar because they lack hope for the future. They feel like they were betrayed somehow, like they are not getting the life they they expected for an educated/skilled worker in post-modern America. Our middle class is becoming thinner and thinner, and more are slipping down, than climbing up.

How many are skilled/educated workers though? I can understand the engineers, construction and computer scientists but how many have a four year in Women's Studies, Sociology or Philosophy? I'm really sorry your Sociology degree cost 200,000 but you're still, at best, going to get a job in a run down part of town starting about 30,000 a year. Same with things like Event Planning, Communications and Theology...except you'll prob work in a better part of town and start closer to 40,000 a year. Too many people, even now, still think the American Dream meant American Guarantee but aren't willing to work below their "standard" or move to somewhere with more jobs. This wouldn't change with Bernie for one simple reason...not a one of them can't say where the money would actually come from.

[Brian]

Mr. Fed made Rolling Stone.

Unfortunately not the cover.

Wanna buy five copies for my Mother.

[Carpet_pissr]

I have no idea what college kids these days are being told, but I very specifically remember being advised to major (I hit college as an undeclared freshman) in something I loved, and the rest would take care of itself (and that idea was mirrored in high school, iirc).

I certainly understand the reasoning behind that, but I'm not so sure modern kids have that luxury anymore. Definitely not the "rest will take care of itself" part.

[Isgrimnur]

As always, the winning answer is petroleum engineer.

[Carpet_pissr]

Except that 50% of them got laid off when oil caked its pants a few years ago.

But hey, they can pivot and go work for solar companies at about 50% of that salary!

[Isgrimnur]

But the government is bullish:

Employment of petroleum engineers is projected to grow 10 percent from 2014 to 2024, faster than the average for all occupations. Job prospects should be favorable because many engineers are expected to retire.

Oil prices will be a major determinant of employment growth. Because many petroleum engineers work in oil and gas extraction, any changes in oil prices will likely affect employment levels. Higher prices can cause oil and gas companies to drill in deeper waters and in less hospitable places and return to existing wells to try new extraction methods. This means that oil drilling operations will likely become more complex and will require more engineers to work on each drilling operation.

Demand for petroleum engineers in support activities for mining should also be strong, as oil and gas companies find it convenient and cost-effective to seek their services on an as-needed basis.

Of course, that 10% growth equates to 3,400 jobs.

CNBC, Dec 2015

This year, 21 U.S. colleges and universities are expected to graduate a record-setting 11,389 petroleum engineering majors, research by Texas Tech professor of petroleum engineering Lloyd Heinze and the U.S. Association of Petroleum Department Heads shows. That's the highest level since 1983, three years before the 1986 oil crash.
...
But as oil prices look poised to remain lower for longer, all signs point to declining enrollment.

During Texas Tech's summer registration in 2014, roughly 570 students indicated they were interested in petroleum engineering as a Bachelor's degree, Heinze told CNBC. During the summer of 2015, that number fell to about 260.

That's no surprise in light of dwindling job prospects. In 2014, 95 percent of graduates with a bachelor's degree in petroleum engineering found work in the oil and gas industry, according to the Society of Petroleum Engineers. This year, 64 percent found work.

[Isgrimnur]

Politico

Donald Trump was caught off guard by Republican leaders' criticism of his accusations of bias against a Hispanic federal judge, the presumptive Republican nominee said Wednesday.

Trump told Time magazine that he was “surprised and disappointed” by the reaction to his attacks against U.S. District Judge Gonzalo Curiel from prominent Republicans. House Speaker Paul Ryan, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and a slew of others all condemned Trump’s repeated statements that Curiel’s Mexican heritage made it impossible for him to be impartial in presiding over a civil fraud case against Trump University, the billionaire’s real estate seminar program.

Especially puzzling, Trump said, was the timing of the criticism, just as he was about to officially secure enough delegates to clinch the GOP nomination.

“I had just won more votes than anyone in the history of the party, so I was a little bit surprised when they said that,” Trump said. “I didn’t think it was necessary. But you know, they have to say what they have to say. I’m a big boy. They have to say what they have to say.”

[tgb]

Politico

Donald Trump was caught off guard by Republican leaders' criticism of his accusations of bias against a Hispanic federal judge, the presumptive Republican nominee said Wednesday.

Trump told Time magazine that he was “surprised and disappointed” by the reaction to his attacks against U.S. District Judge Gonzalo Curiel from prominent Republicans. House Speaker Paul Ryan, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and a slew of others all condemned Trump’s repeated statements that Curiel’s Mexican heritage made it impossible for him to be impartial in presiding over a civil fraud case against Trump University, the billionaire’s real estate seminar program.

Especially puzzling, Trump said, was the timing of the criticism, just as he was about to officially secure enough delegates to clinch the GOP nomination.

“I had just won more votes than anyone in the history of the party, so I was a little bit surprised when they said that,” Trump said. “I didn’t think it was necessary. But you know, they have to say what they have to say. I’m a big boy. They have to say what they have to say.”

I guess he couldn't get away with calling all of them "losers".

Not to make light of job prospects out of college vs. expectations, but that's nothing new. When a friend of mine graduated with a degree in Philosophy, a bunch of us chipped in to get him this shingle for his door:

Samuel Silverman - Philosopher
Also Dog Walking
and House Cleaning

[PLW]

Philosophers do alright. The average person with a philosophy degree makes more than the average person with an accounting degree.

[LordMortis]

Not to make light of job prospects out of college vs. expectations, but that's nothing new. When a friend of mine graduated with a degree in Philosophy, a bunch of us chipped in to get him this shingle for his door:

Samuel Silverman - Philosopher
Also Dog Walking
and House Cleaning

I didn't even get a rock when I got my degree in philosophy.

[malchior]

How many are skilled/educated workers though? I can understand the engineers, construction and computer scientists but how many have a four year in Women's Studies, Sociology or Philosophy?

Funny - one of the kids was a CS grad. Took him 9 months to get a job - and his salary was no shit - $31k. He is doing much better now but it feels like employers somehow expect these kids to spring fully formed with years of experience from their ribs or something. I directly work with a Columbia grad now (she is 23) who makes about $15 an hour or so doing PM consulting. I don't think people really understand how shitty it has been for these kids.

Too many people, even now, still think the American Dream meant American Guarantee but aren't willing to work below their "standard" or move to somewhere with more jobs. This wouldn't change with Bernie for one simple reason...not a one of them can't say where the money would actually come from.

This isn't what I have seen. My wife is 10 years my junior and has a Chemistry degree and makes approximately the same salary in 2016 that I made in 1999 without a degree. There are different circumstances but usually the people are pretty aware of their choices. For example, I do know of one woman who specifically became a social worker and had awareness that it wasn't going to pay well; she was fine with that. But there were plenty of others who got business degrees, marketing, etc. and have drastically different lives than people even 10 years older have at the same point in their life. It's really bad.

[El Guapo]

Just a reminder that Donald Trump does not have a campaign.