Octopus Overlords

Since January, I've striven to provide as complete an accounting of the #COVID19 pandemic as I can. And so I feel it is my job as a scientist to provide my best estimate of the amount of viral transmission the protests are likely to cause. 2/21

Protestors can mitigate against transmission by following guidelines:
* quarantine if showing any symptoms
* wear a mask
* try to stay 6 apart
* use hand sanitizer
* avoid yelling / chanting and instead use drums or other noise makers

5 truisms of public health, racism, COVID-19.

1. Mass gatherings spread virus

2. Being outside helps – we don’t know how much.

3. Wearing mask helps – may be a lot.

4. Racism kills

5. A destroyed economy kills

Thread

A dozen new confirmed cases of the coronavirus in Pennsylvania were traced to recent Jersey Shore “beach house gatherings,” the Bucks County Department of Health announced this weekend.

The county Health Department reported 33 new coronavirus cases Saturday, including 11 that can be traced back to a New Jersey resident “who attended multiple house gatherings at the shore during the past two weeks.” Another Bucks County resident who became infected from the same New Jersey source was announced Friday, according to a news release.

Bucks County is among 10 Pennsylvania counties to recently enter the “yellow phase” of reopening, during which many businesses remain closed and large gatherings are still prohibited.

David Damsker, director of the Bucks County Health Department, said in the release he expects additional new cases as the disease spreads to these individuals’ family members.

Kraken wrote: Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:20 pm 511 epidemiologists share their personal risk tolerance for 20 common activities.

I've been vacillating over whether to get a haircut; now I think I'll wait a few more months (or maybe buy some clippers and do it myself).

Kraken wrote: Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:20 pm 511 epidemiologists share their personal risk tolerance for 20 common activities.

I've been vacillating over whether to get a haircut; now I think I'll wait a few more months (or maybe buy some clippers and do it myself).

El Guapo wrote: Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:35 pm I think we're going to find out soon enough how much of a difference masks + being outside makes in coronavirus transmission, at least. Mitigated by uncertainties of how much of a difference temperature makes.

“From the data we have, it still seems to be rare that an asymptomatic person actually transmits onward to a secondary individual,” Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, head of WHO’s emerging diseases and zoonosis unit, said at a news briefing from the United Nations agency’s Geneva headquarters. “It’s very rare.”

Government responses should focus on detecting and isolating infected people with symptoms, and tracking anyone who might have come into contact with them, Van Kerkhove said. She acknowledged that some studies have indicated asymptomatic or presymptomatic spread in nursing homes and in household settings.

More research and data are needed to “truly answer” the question of whether the coronavirus can spread widely through asymptomatic carriers, Van Kerkhove added.

“We have a number of reports from countries who are doing very detailed contact tracing,” she said. “They’re following asymptomatic cases. They’re following contacts. And they’re not finding secondary transmission onward. It’s very rare.”

Kraken wrote: Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:20 pm 511 epidemiologists share their personal risk tolerance for 20 common activities.

I've been vacillating over whether to get a haircut; now I think I'll wait a few more months (or maybe buy some clippers and do it myself).

stessier wrote: Mon Jun 08, 2020 4:02 pmCould be a big deal if true. Although I'd guess it'll be a while before we are sure.

Arkansas State reported that seven athletes from three sports programs tested positive last Wednesday. They were all asymptomatic and will remain in quarantine for 14 days, the university said.

Three football players from Auburn University in Alabama tested positive, an Auburn athletics spokesperson confirmed to CNN. The three athletes are asymptomatic and have been placed in self-isolation in a dorm away from the rest of the team.

Marshall University and Oklahoma State University announced they've each had several athletes test positive. And Iowa State University reported one new case.

The new cases come after multiple reports surfaced last week that at least five players on the University of Alabama football team tested positive for the virus.

Kevin Klintworth, senior associate athletic director at Oklahoma State University, said Wednesday that three student-athlete tests resulted in "asymptomatic positives." More than 150 student-athletes, staff and administration members were tested during the athletic department's reopening protocol.

Smoove_B wrote: Mon Jun 08, 2020 4:17 pm

stessier wrote: Mon Jun 08, 2020 4:02 pmCould be a big deal if true. Although I'd guess it'll be a while before we are sure.

It could be, yes. Counterpoint:

More universities report coronavirus cases:

Arkansas State reported that seven athletes from three sports programs tested positive last Wednesday. They were all asymptomatic and will remain in quarantine for 14 days, the university said.

Three football players from Auburn University in Alabama tested positive, an Auburn athletics spokesperson confirmed to CNN. The three athletes are asymptomatic and have been placed in self-isolation in a dorm away from the rest of the team.

Marshall University and Oklahoma State University announced they've each had several athletes test positive. And Iowa State University reported one new case.

The new cases come after multiple reports surfaced last week that at least five players on the University of Alabama football team tested positive for the virus.

Kevin Klintworth, senior associate athletic director at Oklahoma State University, said Wednesday that three student-athlete tests resulted in "asymptomatic positives." More than 150 student-athletes, staff and administration members were tested during the athletic department's reopening protocol.

Always rolling the dice...

stessier wrote: Mon Jun 08, 2020 4:24 pmThat says they are positive and asymptomatic - not where they got it. It would be great to have robust contact tracing.

Kraken wrote: Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:20 pm I've been vacillating over whether to get a haircut; now I think I'll wait a few more months (or maybe buy some clippers and do it myself).

Kraken wrote: Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:20 pm I've been vacillating over whether to get a haircut; now I think I'll wait a few more months (or maybe buy some clippers and do it myself).

Holman wrote: Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:41 pm

Kraken wrote: Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:20 pm I've been vacillating over whether to get a haircut; now I think I'll wait a few more months (or maybe buy some clippers and do it myself).

My wife has cut mine twice, mostly using my beard trimmer, and the results have been pretty good.

I like it short on the back and sides and longer on top, so she just runs the trimmer (with adjustable length-plastic-thing) up from the bottom and tries to avoid an obvious weightline, leaving the top alone.

I basically have a rough version of the floppy haircut I had in the late 1980s.

I suspect longer men's hair is about to come back into fashion.

hitbyambulance wrote: Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:02 pm i'm wondering what the solid waste/landfill impact is going to be from all the disposable PPE

Kraken wrote: Mon Jun 08, 2020 6:17 pm I still might buy me some clippers. I'm mostly bald on top anyway, so I can't mess it up too badly. One can get a serviceable clipper for the price of 3 haircuts.

Norwegian scientist says COVID-19 was manufactured, claim backed by ex-British intel head

A new study about the possible origin of the coronavirus has found that Covid-19 is not natural in origin.

The study, led by Norwegian virologist Birger Sorensen, has found that the coronavirus’s spike protein contains sequences that appear to be artificially inserted.

“The inserted sequences should never have been published. Had it been today, it would never have happened. It was a big mistake the Chinese made. The inserted sequences have a functionality that we describe. We explain why they are essential. But the Chinese pointed to them first”, Sorensen said.

The researchers found that the virus had been doctored to bind to humans. They pointed out that it has hardly mutated since it began to infect humans, suggesting that it was already fully adapted to humans.

Z-Corn wrote: Mon Jun 08, 2020 7:19 pm

Kraken wrote: Mon Jun 08, 2020 6:17 pm I still might buy me some clippers. I'm mostly bald on top anyway, so I can't mess it up too badly. One can get a serviceable clipper for the price of 3 haircuts.

Salvation Army and Goodwill stores are opening again soon. Could probably find clippers for a haircut-and-a-half price.

I'm HALFWAY to just letting my hair go and embracing the J Mascis look but without a beard. Because I'm not a savage.

Skinypupy wrote: Mon Jun 08, 2020 8:04 pm Seeing this story making the rounds quite a bit this afternoon. Mostly through right wing sites (hence my high degree of skepticism), but may be worth keeping an eye on.

Norwegian scientist says COVID-19 was manufactured, claim backed by ex-British intel head

A new study about the possible origin of the coronavirus has found that Covid-19 is not natural in origin.

The study, led by Norwegian virologist Birger Sorensen, has found that the coronavirus’s spike protein contains sequences that appear to be artificially inserted.

“The inserted sequences should never have been published. Had it been today, it would never have happened. It was a big mistake the Chinese made. The inserted sequences have a functionality that we describe. We explain why they are essential. But the Chinese pointed to them first”, Sorensen said.

The researchers found that the virus had been doctored to bind to humans. They pointed out that it has hardly mutated since it began to infect humans, suggesting that it was already fully adapted to humans.

LordMortis wrote: Mon Jun 08, 2020 9:52 pm

Skinypupy wrote: Mon Jun 08, 2020 8:04 pm Seeing this story making the rounds quite a bit this afternoon. Mostly through right wing sites (hence my high degree of skepticism), but may be worth keeping an eye on.

Norwegian scientist says COVID-19 was manufactured, claim backed by ex-British intel head

A new study about the possible origin of the coronavirus has found that Covid-19 is not natural in origin.

The study, led by Norwegian virologist Birger Sorensen, has found that the coronavirus’s spike protein contains sequences that appear to be artificially inserted.

“The inserted sequences should never have been published. Had it been today, it would never have happened. It was a big mistake the Chinese made. The inserted sequences have a functionality that we describe. We explain why they are essential. But the Chinese pointed to them first”, Sorensen said.

The researchers found that the virus had been doctored to bind to humans. They pointed out that it has hardly mutated since it began to infect humans, suggesting that it was already fully adapted to humans.

I looked up the author and the first hit I got was Frobes... and the pulled story... I'll wait for more the learned weigh in.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidnikel ... 54349b121d

Smoove_B wrote: Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:01 pm

stessier wrote: Mon Jun 08, 2020 4:24 pmThat says they are positive and asymptomatic - not where they got it. It would be great to have robust contact tracing.

If only. I wonder what that would be like...

My unofficial take was that they were showing up to training camp, being immediately tested (as part of whatever their "sorting hat" process is) and it was determined they were asymptomatic.

How they keep all the players, coaches, training staff, etc... effectively isolated from outside contact from now until November? December? That's anyone's guess.

Kraken wrote: Tue Jun 09, 2020 10:18 am People generally don't understand that science is a process that works by constant challenge and revision, and it's rare that each baby step in scientific progress is on public display. We want answers, and we want them now.

Kraken wrote: Tue Jun 09, 2020 10:18 am People generally don't understand that science is a process that works by constant challenge and revision, and it's rare that each baby step in scientific progress is on public display. We want answers, and we want them now.

Jaymon wrote: Tue Jun 09, 2020 12:49 pm hey everybody. I can personally attest. The corona virus test is a horrible experience. I am relabeling all q-tips as torture devices.

El Guapo wrote: Tue Jun 09, 2020 10:47 am

Kraken wrote: Tue Jun 09, 2020 10:18 am People generally don't understand that science is a process that works by constant challenge and revision, and it's rare that each baby step in scientific progress is on public display. We want answers, and we want them now.

Also I think this may have been extremely poor communication by the WHO, if I am understanding what they are saying correctly.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Jun 09, 2020 9:25 am It's what the war on science has wrought. People see updating conclusions through rigorous use of the scientific method as a weakness rather than the strength that it is.

You admit you weren't 100% correct? You are 100% wrong!

You see it in the intransigence of so many, even in the face of overwhelming data and facts. Admission of any change in outlook or postion if failure and weakness.

At the very least, you should continue to follow your state and local guidance, like limits on the number of people who can gather in one spot. Beyond that, the decision about how you move forward in our new normal is really going to be a personal one, Amesh Adalja, M.D., a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security, tells SELF. “The virus hasn’t changed biologically. Social distancing has eased because hospital capacity is no longer an issue in most parts of the country,” he explains. “It doesn’t mean that you’re not at risk for contracting it.”

disarm wrote: Tue Jun 09, 2020 5:22 pm I had a swab today as part of a required work screening (no suspicion of infection) and it wasn't bad...about 10 seconds of mild discomfort on each side as she twirled the swab and it was done. It burned a little as she was doing it and felt a little like I needed to sneeze, but all that went away immediately after it was done. Not the most fun I've had recently, but could have been worse.

Paingod wrote: Tue Jun 09, 2020 12:58 pm

Jaymon wrote: Tue Jun 09, 2020 12:49 pm hey everybody. I can personally attest. The corona virus test is a horrible experience. I am relabeling all q-tips as torture devices.

I've heard that the testers routinely etch their initials on the back of your sinuses. Is this true?