Octopus Overlords

Sweden's gambling that those who recover will enjoy long-term immunity. Last I heard, that is still unknown.

Kraken wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 3:48 pm Sweden's gambling that those who recover will enjoy long-term immunity. Last I heard, that is still unknown.

It's either that or gamble that harsh, economy-crippling measures will cause less deaths than keeping society running. No one is not taking a gamble with Corona. Some countries are suffering (ironically) from "herd mentality" in deciding their measures. Sweden has dared to based their measures on science rather than hysteria.

But I'm not actually trying to defend the Swedish strategy. I don't know what road is best to take. No one does. Some parts of the Swedish effort has been poorly implemented, and the nursing home situation is just terrible. They should have done more early measures to help the elder care through this.

Kraken wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 3:48 pm Sweden's gambling that those who recover will enjoy long-term immunity. Last I heard, that is still unknown.

I read today they (we? Humanity? Some company?) are in the last phases of a "better" antibody test, that while still not a perfect predictor is supposed to give a better handle on fighting off future infection. To the Internet!!!!

From yesterday, first thing I found

https://www.startribune.com/mayo-unveil ... 571190162/

A test that could help determine whether people gain immunity after a COVID-19 infection was announced Thursday by Mayo Clinic and its corporate partners.

The test is the first in the world that will be broadly commercially available to identify neutralizing antibodies — the proteins produced after COVID-19 that will fight off the coronavirus if it comes back. Existing tests developed amid the pandemic show whether people have produced any antibodies in response to the illness, but not these key proteins.

“This is more reassuring than just ... a positive [antibody test] to show you have been previously exposed to the virus,” said Dr. Stephen Russell, chief executive of Vyriad, the Rochester, Minn., company that created the test and provided it to Mayo via a licensing partnership with a second company, Regeneron. “This test is showing what level of protection you actually have.”

Vyriad and Mayo leaders cautioned that the test can’t yet give “immunity passports,” or suggest that people are no longer at risk after recovering from the illness.

Nobody knows the amount of neutralizing antibodies needed to fight off reinfection, so a test that merely finds them is insufficient to prove immunity, said Elitza Theel, director of Mayo’s infectious diseases serology laboratory.

LordMortis wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 3:57 pm

I read today they (we? Humanity? Some company?) are in the last phases of a "better" antibody test, that while still not a perfect predictor is supposed to give a better handle on fighting off future infection. To the Internet!!!!

As seen here.

Lagom Lite wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 3:56 pm

Kraken wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 3:48 pm Sweden's gambling that those who recover will enjoy long-term immunity. Last I heard, that is still unknown.

It's either that or gamble that harsh, economy-crippling measures will cause less deaths than keeping society running. No one is not taking a gamble with Corona. Some countries are suffering (ironically) from "herd mentality" in deciding their measures. Sweden has dared to based their measures on science rather than hysteria.

I strongly disagree with your premise that others are acting out of hysteria and not science.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 4:01 pm

LordMortis wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 3:57 pm

I read today they (we? Humanity? Some company?) are in the last phases of a "better" antibody test, that while still not a perfect predictor is supposed to give a better handle on fighting off future infection. To the Internet!!!!

As seen here.

apparently I read that here.

LordMortis wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 4:28 pm apparently I read that here.

Happens to us all...

Lagom Lite wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 3:56 pm

Kraken wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 3:48 pm Sweden's gambling that those who recover will enjoy long-term immunity. Last I heard, that is still unknown.

It's either that or gamble that harsh, economy-crippling measures will cause less deaths than keeping society running. No one is not taking a gamble with Corona. Some countries are suffering (ironically) from "herd mentality" in deciding their measures. Sweden has dared to based their measures on science rather than hysteria.

But I'm not actually trying to defend the Swedish strategy. I don't know what road is best to take. No one does. Some parts of the Swedish effort has been poorly implemented, and the nursing home situation is just terrible. They should have done more early measures to help the elder care through this.

Totally agree - no one really knows. Only in retrospect will we know what the best course might have been. It doesn't look like the Swedish economy suffered as badly as some others but it still looks like it will end up being recorded as a recession as the year progresses. However that is all relative now anyway. That said, I posted the tweet above because Sweden is often used here in the US as an example about how we overreacted. And even though we 'overreacted' we have horrible numbers *despite a lockdown*. As you've probably seen the situation here is getting worse. We are saying 'fuck it' and sending death threats to our public health officials. I thought it was relevant information when the inevitable *but Sweden* argument comes around. Anyway, I want to also say sorry to hear about the situation back home and hope everyone recovers well!

malchior wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 4:50 pm

Lagom Lite wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 3:56 pm

Kraken wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 3:48 pm Sweden's gambling that those who recover will enjoy long-term immunity. Last I heard, that is still unknown.

It's either that or gamble that harsh, economy-crippling measures will cause less deaths than keeping society running. No one is not taking a gamble with Corona. Some countries are suffering (ironically) from "herd mentality" in deciding their measures. Sweden has dared to based their measures on science rather than hysteria.

But I'm not actually trying to defend the Swedish strategy. I don't know what road is best to take. No one does. Some parts of the Swedish effort has been poorly implemented, and the nursing home situation is just terrible. They should have done more early measures to help the elder care through this.

Totally agree - no one really knows. Only in retrospect will we know what the best course might have been. It doesn't look like the Swedish economy suffered as badly as some others but it still looks like it will end up being recorded as a recession as the year progresses. However that is all relative now anyway. That said, I posted the tweet above because Sweden is often used here in the US as an example about how we overreacted. And even though we 'overreacted' we have horrible numbers *despite a lockdown*. As you've probably seen the situation here is getting worse. We are saying 'fuck it' and sending death threats to our public health officials. I thought it was relevant information when the inevitable *but Sweden* argument comes around. Anyway, I want to also say sorry to hear about the situation back home and hope everyone recovers well!

I do think that part of Lagom's point is that the differences between Sweden and other countries in practical terms are probably smaller than people appreciate, because Swedes haven't been saying "fuck it, spring break wooooo!!!" (or "knulla det, vår lov wooooo!!!"). They've been social distancing, reducing gatherings, etc., it's just that a lot of it has been voluntary. And for that matter, people have underestimated the voluntary / non-compulsory part of distancing stuff here too, because governments ability to enforce this stuff beyond large gatherings is inherently limited).

Obviously, that is different from the more compulsory routes pursued by other countries, but it's possible to overstate those differences.

As you've probably seen the situation here is getting worse.

As of right now that is relative to where you are. Treating stay at home, social distancing, and mask wearing as prophylactic appears to be getting universally worse but it's not true to say that right now the US as a whole is getting worse. As a whole, in the US daily cases are dropping and Active cases have stabilized (though will see how long that lasts as the Southwest picks up pace every day), and daily deaths are dropping.

Now, depending on where you live things are getting a whole hell of lot worse because the disease is spreading and doesn't give a damned if you we were wearing a mask April and May when the 'Rona wasn't in your town.

State by state, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Texas, California, Alabama, Georgia, Illinois, Maryland, and Tennessee? Definitely getting worse.

Ten states account for well above 50% of all new cases yesterday. Not on that list, New York, New Jersey, Michigan, Washington, DC, Connecticut, Rhode Island, all of which have been hit hard in April and May. New York alone, having 1 in 5 cases in the whole US to date only reported 688 new cases yesterday.

El Guapo wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 5:05 pm I do think that part of Lagom's point is that the differences between Sweden and other countries in practical terms are probably smaller than people appreciate, because Swedes haven't been saying "fuck it, spring break wooooo!!!" (or "knulla det, vår lov wooooo!!!"). They've been social distancing, reducing gatherings, etc., it's just that a lot of it has been voluntary. And for that matter, people have underestimated the voluntary / non-compulsory part of distancing stuff here too, because governments ability to enforce this stuff beyond large gatherings is inherently limited).

Obviously, that is different from the more compulsory routes pursued by other countries, but it's possible to overstate those differences.

I'd push back pretty hard on the idea that the differences are small. We definitely have completely different cultural issues here. I'm not saying that they are perfect but the Swedes overall are taking it much more seriously albeit with some honest mistakes. Here we have a President who largely downplayed the whole thing to the level of malevolence and helped convinced a segment of the population that isn't insignificant to think it is a fake overblown crisis designed to take him down. Or that the liberals are trying to take away our freedom. Sure the government can't realistically keep up from visiting each other but we can keep restaurants and indoor venues closed. We have the tools but not the will to use them. In the end, I'd say our approache along with Brazil's are particularly bat shit and massively off kilter compared to Sweden's.

malchior wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 5:14 pm

El Guapo wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 5:05 pm I do think that part of Lagom's point is that the differences between Sweden and other countries in practical terms are probably smaller than people appreciate, because Swedes haven't been saying "fuck it, spring break wooooo!!!" (or "knulla det, vår lov wooooo!!!"). They've been social distancing, reducing gatherings, etc., it's just that a lot of it has been voluntary. And for that matter, people have underestimated the voluntary / non-compulsory part of distancing stuff here too, because governments ability to enforce this stuff beyond large gatherings is inherently limited).

Obviously, that is different from the more compulsory routes pursued by other countries, but it's possible to overstate those differences.

I'd push back pretty hard on the idea that the differences are small. We definitely have completely different cultural issues here. I'm not saying that they are perfect but the Swedes overall are taking it much more seriously albeit with some honest mistakes. Here we have a President who largely downplayed the whole thing to the level of malevolence and helped convinced a segment of the population that isn't insignificant to think it is a fake overblown crisis designed to take him down. Or that the liberals are trying to take away our freedom. Sure the government can't realistically keep up from visiting each other but we can keep restaurants and indoor venues closed. We have the tools but not the will to use them. In the end, I'd say our approache along with Brazil's are particularly bat shit and massively off kilter compared to Sweden's.

I didn't say that the differences are small, I just said that I think as a practical matter they're smaller than many people appreciate (especially since you've got one country with no real government mandates but where people seemingly are taking guidance seriously, and one country where you have real government mandates but a lot of people are not taking them seriously). Sweden is sometimes presented as a model where everyone just said "fuck it, let's go about our lives as normal", and part of Lagom's point is that that's not really the case.

LordMortis wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 5:14 pm

As you've probably seen the situation here is getting worse.

As of right now that is relative to where you are. Treating stay at home, social distancing, and mask wearing as prophylactic appears to be getting universally worse but it's not true to say that right now the US as a whole is getting worse. As a whole, in the US daily cases are dropping and Active cases have stabilized (though will see how long that lasts as the Southwest picks up pace every day), and daily deaths are dropping.

State by state, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Texas, California, Alabama, Georgia, Illinois, Maryland, and Tennessee? Definitely getting worse.

Those are allmostly high population areas. That it is spreading there and we are *removing controls* make it almost certainly a worse outlook than it was a month ago. Sure it could magically vanish but doubtful. And death per day are definitely not dropping. It has been bouncing around 1000/day for about a month. There is no reason to think with cases staying steady and starting to trend up that it'll drop. In fact, the basic math indicates that deaths per day is poised to grow as a lagging factor. This is unfortunately pretty predictable. At this point this isn't even epidemiology, it is just stats.

Ten states account for well above 50% of all new cases yesterday. Not on that list, New York, New Jersey, Michigan, Washington, DC, Connecticut, Rhode Island, all of which have been hit hard in April and May. New York alone, having 1 in 5 cases in the whole US to date only reported 688 new cases yesterday.

As we should expect, the pandemic is expanding in different clusters with less controls. New York and NJ still have many of the controls in place. I think I'm pretty safe on getting worse.

El Guapo wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 5:17 pm

malchior wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 5:14 pm

El Guapo wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 5:05 pm I do think that part of Lagom's point is that the differences between Sweden and other countries in practical terms are probably smaller than people appreciate, because Swedes haven't been saying "fuck it, spring break wooooo!!!" (or "knulla det, vår lov wooooo!!!"). They've been social distancing, reducing gatherings, etc., it's just that a lot of it has been voluntary. And for that matter, people have underestimated the voluntary / non-compulsory part of distancing stuff here too, because governments ability to enforce this stuff beyond large gatherings is inherently limited).

Obviously, that is different from the more compulsory routes pursued by other countries, but it's possible to overstate those differences.

I'd push back pretty hard on the idea that the differences are small. We definitely have completely different cultural issues here. I'm not saying that they are perfect but the Swedes overall are taking it much more seriously albeit with some honest mistakes. Here we have a President who largely downplayed the whole thing to the level of malevolence and helped convinced a segment of the population that isn't insignificant to think it is a fake overblown crisis designed to take him down. Or that the liberals are trying to take away our freedom. Sure the government can't realistically keep up from visiting each other but we can keep restaurants and indoor venues closed. We have the tools but not the will to use them. In the end, I'd say our approache along with Brazil's are particularly bat shit and massively off kilter compared to Sweden's.

I didn't say that the differences are small, I just said that I think as a practical matter they're smaller than many people appreciate (especially since you've got one country with no real government mandates but where people seemingly are taking guidance seriously, and one country where you have real government mandates but a lot of people are not taking them seriously). Sweden is sometimes presented as a model where everyone just said "fuck it, let's go about our lives as normal", and part of Lagom's point is that that's not really the case.

Ah gotcha. The end there is what I'm getting at. That's what people say it is to support our 'fuck it' attitude. And you'll see some people in the middle even say it's working depending on what source they read/watch. CNBC in particular has some serious blinders about Sweden. The reality is that with less controls but a compliant culture they still had missteps. We can't replicate it and we shouldn't even try.

I don't know what you've been watching but I've been watching.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Go to the US and look at 7 day moving averages. New cases. Down trending since April 27th. Active cases. Stabilized more less since May 21. 7 Day moving average on deaths. Downward trend since April 21st. That is not "the situation is getting worse"

We can talk about fucked regions all day long and how they are likely to change trajectories, but the US as a whole is not getting worse. (at this time) Now, should LA go full blown New York City (and it looks like it will) then things will be getting worse for the US as a whole.

None of this means hey "Things are getting better throw caution to the wind", it means (to me) take the lessons learned from New York, New Jersey, Michigan, Washington, DC, Connecticut, and Rhode Island and stay serious. Spread out the infection rate so you don't have our death tolls.

I go back to

Mortality rate for the US will be a strange thing to process, simply because we are a stew of cultures, lifestyles, climates, population densities, and healthcare availability.

malchior wrote:. And death per day are definitely not dropping. It has been bouncing around 1000/day for about a month.

I agree with your larger point that deaths are a lagging indicator and they're likely to head upward soon, but your quoted statement is incorrect. The 7-day moving average of US deaths on May 12 was 1,638. Yesterday it was 803. It's been trending steadily downward since the end of April.

Dammit, LM. Slow down! You jinxed me...

Zaxxon wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 5:36 pm I agree with your larger point that deaths are a lagging indicator and they're likely to head upward soon,

I hope you are wrong. I hope that we have better prepared responses, more resources to work with, and a wider spread of the disease that allows for a better dedication of people power and hospital beds. I don't want to tell red states and rural areas and places without a mixing pot of travelers "We warned you, looks like your fucked."

I fear population centers in California and the aging populations of Arizona and Florida will lay my hopes in ruins.

LordMortis wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 5:32 pm Go to the US and look at 7 day moving averages. New cases. Down trending since April 27th. Active cases. Stabilized more less since May 21. 7 Day moving average on deaths. Downward trend since April 21st. That is not "the situation is getting worse"

The number to watch isn't the total number of cases. It's pretty clear that's being both intentionally and artificially manipulated. Intentional (hopefully) is obvious but unintentional is that we're doing more testing nationwide than we were on April 27th - positive results are either going to continue to plateau or increase but are ultimately still limited to a specific number per day (in each state) based on how many tests they can offer and process.

The number to watch is hospital admissions and/or ICU capacity. That's going to be the leading indicator now. Hospital systems all across the US know what to normally expect based on monthly or seasonal trends. Admissions will likely be easier to use as an "alarm bell" than positive cases or deaths. Watch for and listen to hospital folks. When they're saying there's a problem, it's because they're seeing it firsthand.

LordMortis wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 5:32 pm I don't know what you've been watching but I've been watching.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Go to the US and look at 7 day moving averages. New cases. Down trending since April 27th. Active cases. Stabilized more less since May 21. 7 Day moving average on deaths. Downward trend since April 21st. That is not "the situation is getting worse"

This is the situation where different methods and sources of data tracking this lead to different perspective results. I don't know why they even have a 3-day because that is far too sensitive. I personally think a 7-day is a bad idea. It doesn't fit the curve very well just by eyeballing it. It literally skims the top of the graph the entire time. That is pretty suspect. It is even more absurd in the New Cases graph where it absolutely refuses to sink to the current level. Anyway, I'm not going to waste time trying to prove it. I prefer another method (below if you care to see the rationale) and agree to disagree if you don't buy that.

As an aside I experimented with moving averages in my data analytics class where we had a side project to track the covid stats and we abandoned it because they weren't reliable. The underlying data is all jacked. For example, Florida hiding thousands of covid-19 deaths as 'pneumonia'. You can only get so much out of this stuff. Even then moving average isn't the best way to evaluate this. The best sources are the ones tracking deaths from all causes.

If you graph the deaths the line for the last month has a slope near to 800/day that hasn't varied significantly. You can see it here - visually by clicking on deaths.

Covidtracking numbers also show a fairly steady death rate and the average for the last month is ~800 / day but today they reported 1000 deaths. That is cherry picking but just giving a sense that what we are seeing is a minor variation around a steady amount of cases/deaths that has been going on for some time. Maybe saying a month is wrong but the current rates of new cases/deaths has been very steady for 3 weeks. The only thing that says different is that moving average. Straight averaging, eyeballing the curves, graphing an intercept all are pretty much linear.

Smoove_B wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 5:52 pm The number to watch is hospital admissions and/or ICU capacity. That's going to be the leading indicator now. Hospital systems all across the US know what to normally expect based on monthly or seasonal trends. Admissions will likely be easier to use as an "alarm bell" than positive cases or deaths. Watch for and listen to hospital folks. When they're saying there's a problem, it's because they're seeing it firsthand.

I've looked and failed. Where are you watching? Someone posted bed occupancy tracking as it relates to states getting better or worse on a trajectory in one of these threads maybe a month ago. I didn't book mark it and when I went to go look for it again and like with google, I gave up maybe five pages into my search. (actually that's more patient than I am with google. I rarely go to page 4 on a google search)

Covidtracking.com has them but they aren't being graphed. The Hill has a piece talking about the surge of hospitalizations and ICU numbers in several states over the last week though.

Edit:

Hospitals are expressing concern. Texas Medical Center in Houston warned last week that the “upswing in the current COVID-19 caseload growth trajectory suggests base ICU [intensive care unit] capacity could be exceeded in 2 weeks.”

They say *base ICU capacity* so I hope that implies they will be able to ramp up capacity if needed to some level and it isn't like 2 weeks they are in deep, deep shit.

malchior wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 6:12 pm I don't know why they even have a 3-day because that is far too sensitive. I personally think a 7-day is a bad idea. It doesn't fit the curve very well just by eyeballing it.

I've graphed outbreaks down to 30 minute onset intervals! The reason they do 3 day is because if there's a jump, it suggests something is happening. The rub is figuring out if the jump is meaningful or if it's an artifact caused by something else. The difficulty here is that we're always Daehawking time traveling. A three day jump *today* represents an event that likely occurred 7+ days ago. That really is one of the biggest problems we have with this - the lag time between exposure and visible illness with the likely kicker of infectivity ~48 hours before visible signs and symptoms appear (if I'm to believe the latest info).

EDIT: Yeah, I haven't seen hospitalization/ICU data being broadly reported. I've been following it for NJ (it's reported daily), but other than news articles mentioning it for various states, I haven't seen it collectively being reported anywhere for other states/regions.

Smoove_B wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 6:36 pmEDIT: Yeah, I haven't seen hospitalization/ICU data being broadly reported. I've been following it for NJ (it's reported daily), but other than news articles mentioning it for various states, I haven't seen it collectively being reported anywhere for other states/regions.

Covidtracking has it but you need to pull it out via spreadsheet or API. It isn't all nice and trued up. They are scraping from the individual state public health releases. One notable. AL wasn't reporting hospitalizations/ICU until....about 3 days ago. Or potentially covidtracking wasn't picking them up. I'd got with not reporting as an assumption.

Florida being Florida:

Florida is sitting on more than 980,000 unused doses of hydroxychloroquine, a drug President Donald Trump touted as a “game changer” in the fight against the coronavirus, after only a handful of hospitals in the state asked for access to the medicine.

Gov. Ron DeSantis said in April that the state was getting 1 million doses of the drug. The announcement was made during a press conference that came across as a commercial for hydroxychloroquine. Held in the Florida Cabinet room, the event featured the video testimonial of a patient who had taken the drug, a question-and-answer session with a doctor who endorsed the treatment, and DeSantis touting the drug by name, even as he referenced other experimental treatments for Covid-19 only vaguely.

malchior wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 6:31 pm Covidtracking.com has them but they aren't being graphed. The Hill has a piece talking about the surge of hospitalizations and ICU numbers in several states over the last week though.

Edit:

Hospitals are expressing concern. Texas Medical Center in Houston warned last week that the “upswing in the current COVID-19 caseload growth trajectory suggests base ICU [intensive care unit] capacity could be exceeded in 2 weeks.”

They say *base ICU capacity* so I hope that implies they will be able to ramp up capacity if needed to some level and it isn't like 2 weeks they are in deep, deep shit.

I predict that some of the red states that poo pooed the virus and opened things up early are going to have to make some very politically tough choices over the summer. Red state governors are going to face NYC type situations (ICU overrun and hospitals out of capacity) and will be told by their public health officials that they need a shut down. Then it will get interesting.

In the end, I would not be surprised if many/all states have to go through a stop/start/stop/start cycle. The virus isn't going anywhere until there is a vaccine.

Grifman wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 8:02 pm

malchior wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 6:31 pm Covidtracking.com has them but they aren't being graphed. The Hill has a piece talking about the surge of hospitalizations and ICU numbers in several states over the last week though.

Edit:

Hospitals are expressing concern. Texas Medical Center in Houston warned last week that the “upswing in the current COVID-19 caseload growth trajectory suggests base ICU [intensive care unit] capacity could be exceeded in 2 weeks.”

They say *base ICU capacity* so I hope that implies they will be able to ramp up capacity if needed to some level and it isn't like 2 weeks they are in deep, deep shit.

I predict that some of the red states that poo pooed the virus and opened things up early are going to have to make some very politically tough choices over the summer. Red state governors are going to face NYC type situations (ICU overrun and hospitals out of capacity) and will be told by their public health officials that they need a shut down. Then it will get interesting.

In the end, I would not be surprised if many/all states have to go through a stop/start/stop/start cycle. The virus isn't going anywhere until there is a vaccine.

Today in SC we hit 770 new cases...10%+ higher than yesterday and almost 4x higher than the peak in April. In response, the governor reopened the bowling alleys.

Edit: I forgot the best part. Occupancy of all stores was limited to 25% of the rated amount. He removed that limit today. All our stores are allowed their rated occupancy.

Grifman wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 8:02 pm In the end, I would not be surprised if many/all states have to go through a stop/start/stop/start cycle. The virus isn't going anywhere until there is a vaccine.

The states that have already been through the wringer aren't going to risk going through that again. Some that didn't seem determined to learn that the hard way.

stessier wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 8:09 pmToday in SC we hit 770 new cases...10%+ higher than yesterday and almost 4x higher than the peak in April. In response, the governor reopened the bowling alleys.

Edit: I forgot the best part. Occupancy of all stores was limited to 25% of the rated amount. He removed that limit today. All our stores are allowed their rated occupancy.

Holy crap - that's all crazy. I just saw South Carolina was at ~71% hospital capacity (state average). I mean...that's not good given what you're saying here.

Lagom Lite wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 3:56 pm

Kraken wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 3:48 pm Sweden's gambling that those who recover will enjoy long-term immunity. Last I heard, that is still unknown.

It's either that or gamble that harsh, economy-crippling measures will cause less deaths than keeping society running. No one is not taking a gamble with Corona. Some countries are suffering (ironically) from "herd mentality" in deciding their measures. Sweden has dared to based their measures on science rather than hysteria.

But I'm not actually trying to defend the Swedish strategy. I don't know what road is best to take. No one does. Some parts of the Swedish effort has been poorly implemented, and the nursing home situation is just terrible. They should have done more early measures to help the elder care through this.

I'm glad Sweden (or someone, anyway) took a contrarian approach. It's generating good data for the eventual AAR, as well as for the inevitable next pandemic.

One thing historians will agree upon: The US suffered disproportionate casualties due to our bumbling federal non-response. It's incredible that we're still sitting here comparing state strategies due to the ongoing abdication of central leadership.

stessier wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 4:11 pm

Lagom Lite wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 3:56 pm

Kraken wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 3:48 pm Sweden's gambling that those who recover will enjoy long-term immunity. Last I heard, that is still unknown.

It's either that or gamble that harsh, economy-crippling measures will cause less deaths than keeping society running. No one is not taking a gamble with Corona. Some countries are suffering (ironically) from "herd mentality" in deciding their measures. Sweden has dared to based their measures on science rather than hysteria.

I strongly disagree with your premise that others are acting out of hysteria and not science.

Yeah! Some of us are acting out of politics and incompetence!

Dallas

Dallas County is setting records for the wrong reasons. For the third straight day this week, Dallas County has recorded as record-high number of people who have tested positive for COVID-19.

Dallas County reported 328 positive cases and also three deaths on Friday. The county says one likely explanation for the gradual trend in these numbers may be due to the increase in testing.

But there's another trend that has county and local medical experts concerned: the number of hospitalizations caused by COVID-19.

Stephen Love of the D-FW Hospital Council represents more than 90 area hospitals. He says over the last month, the number of hospitalizations has peaked four times, but every time it has subsequently come down.
...
Statistics for COVID-19 show hospital admissions, lab confirmed hospitalizations and emergency visits all trended up in Dallas County. ICU hospital admissions for COVID-19 remained steady and the number of available ICU beds went down.

"We are in a timing-wise, two weeks away from when Memorial Day weekend occurred, when several things opened up, and so the timing for the impact of some of these numbers might fit with that," said Dr. Philip Huang, with the Dallas County Health and Human Services.

These trends are happening all while Governor Abbott follows through on Phase 3 of the "Open Texas" order that lets restaurants open up to 75% capacity.

"The politicians have made it really clear, President Trump has made it clear it's full steam ahead regardless of what they see," said Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins.

Smoove_B wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 9:53 pm

stessier wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 8:09 pmToday in SC we hit 770 new cases...10%+ higher than yesterday and almost 4x higher than the peak in April. In response, the governor reopened the bowling alleys.

Edit: I forgot the best part. Occupancy of all stores was limited to 25% of the rated amount. He removed that limit today. All our stores are allowed their rated occupancy.

Holy crap - that's all crazy. I just saw South Carolina was at ~71% hospital capacity (state average). I mean...that's not good given what you're saying here.

Hospital Bed Occupancy
As of Friday morning, 2,839 inpatient hospital beds are available and 7,614 are in use, which is a 72.84% statewide hospital bed utilization rate. Of the 7,614 inpatient beds currently used, 512 are occupied by patients who have either tested positive or are under investigation for COVID-19.

It was about 490 with Covid patients in Thursday's report.

Testing in South Carolina
As of Thursday, a total of 272,128 tests, have been conducted in the state. See a detailed breakdown of tests in South Carolina on the Data and Projections webpage. DHEC’s Public Health Laboratory is operating extended hours and is testing specimens seven days a week. The Public Health Laboratory’s current timeframe for providing results to health care providers is 24-48 hours.

The number of cases compared to the number of tests done is trending up. DHEC says a decrease in this figure with the expansion of testing is ideal. This figure was as low as 5% last week but has been above 14% for three of the last four days.

Note: On the day it wasn't 14%+ in that stretch, it was about 12.7%.

Over the last week, we've been averaging around 5100 tests per day. SC's population is about 5.1 million for a test rate of 0.1% of the population tested per day and 3% per month. This seems lower than what we should be shooting for to me.

They are only talking about bed occupancy - what about staff capacity? I saw numbers from Arizona, where their Banner Health system still has a decent number of ICU beds and ventilators left, plus "surge bed capacity", but they are at max staff capacity. So if they had to fill all those extra beds, there wouldn't be enough medical staff to care for them.

malchior wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 5:14 pm Here we have a President who largely downplayed the whole thing to the level of malevolence and helped convinced a segment of the population that isn't insignificant to think it is a fake overblown crisis designed to take him down. Or that the liberals are trying to take away our freedom.

We don't think it's fake, we think your leadership conspired with China to release the virus in order to take Trump down. Or the other option is that Democratic leadership paid someone in China to release the virus. If I was China I'd be telling everybody it was the latter no matter which it was. If they start to think Trump is likely going to win, I'd bet that's exactly what they do.

em2nought wrote: Sat Jun 13, 2020 1:30 pm We don't think it's fake, we think your leadership conspired with China to release the virus in order to take Trump down.

To expose Trump's inability to do anything even remotely helpful in trying to stop it? Wouldn't this have been a slam dunk for him to address and then really stick it to the libs by proactively responding back in January when he seemingly learned about it? I am genuinely not following the logic here. The virus didn't make Trump look bad - he managed to do that all by himself.

Plus, China would love to see trump elected. He's doing wonders to expand Chinese influence worldwide.

em2nought wrote: Sat Jun 13, 2020 1:30 pm

malchior wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 5:14 pm Here we have a President who largely downplayed the whole thing to the level of malevolence and helped convinced a segment of the population that isn't insignificant to think it is a fake overblown crisis designed to take him down. Or that the liberals are trying to take away our freedom.

We don't think it's fake, we think your leadership conspired with China to release the virus in order to take Trump down. Or the other option is that Democratic leadership paid someone in China to release the virus. If I was China I'd be telling everybody it was the latter no matter which it was. If they start to think Trump is likely going to win, I'd bet that's exactly what they do.

I hope you're just trolling as that is a seriously effed up world view that the Dems would sacrifice 200k+ American lives to make Trump look bad.

Indiana says that COVID-19 patients are only taking up 12.9% of the total ICU beds, with another 48.3% with non-COVID issues, but for some strange reason I just don't believe the numbers coming out of the ISDH anymore.

Jaymann wrote: Sat Jun 13, 2020 2:13 pm

em2nought wrote: Sat Jun 13, 2020 1:30 pm

malchior wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 5:14 pm Here we have a President who largely downplayed the whole thing to the level of malevolence and helped convinced a segment of the population that isn't insignificant to think it is a fake overblown crisis designed to take him down. Or that the liberals are trying to take away our freedom.

We don't think it's fake, we think your leadership conspired with China to release the virus in order to take Trump down. Or the other option is that Democratic leadership paid someone in China to release the virus. If I was China I'd be telling everybody it was the latter no matter which it was. If they start to think Trump is likely going to win, I'd bet that's exactly what they do.

I hope you're just trolling as that is a seriously effed up world view that the Dems would sacrifice 200k+ American lives to make Trump look bad.

It's part of the ideological package that will make it possible for him to excuse open election-tampering and then the end of the Republic.

"The Dems LITERALLY unleashed a plague on America! They had to be stopped by any means available!!"

em2nought wrote: Sat Jun 13, 2020 1:30 pm

malchior wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 5:14 pm Here we have a President who largely downplayed the whole thing to the level of malevolence and helped convinced a segment of the population that isn't insignificant to think it is a fake overblown crisis designed to take him down. Or that the liberals are trying to take away our freedom.

We don't think it's fake, we think your leadership conspired with China to release the virus in order to take Trump down. Or the other option is that Democratic leadership paid someone in China to release the virus. If I was China I'd be telling everybody it was the latter no matter which it was. If they start to think Trump is likely going to win, I'd bet that's exactly what they do.

Thanks for clarifying that you're even more batshit than previously thought.