Octopus Overlords

Carpet_pissr wrote:Aaaaaand, there goes the market due to what appears to be an inevitable plunge over the fiscal cliff on Friday. Noice.

Our so called leaders (BOTH side of the aisle, people) are awesome.

FUCK. I knew better than to be fully invested right now, and I got greedy, not believing they would let this happen. Since I am not a trader, I am not overly concerned that things will come back at some point, BUT it sure would have been nice to be sitting on a big wad of cash when this thing goes down...and then just buy like a fiend when the shit hits the fan.

/Farley: STOOPID, STOOPID, STOOPID!!

The broad market is off 1.5%. Relax. I pay 6 times that in sales tax.

Carpet_pissr wrote:Aaaaaand, there goes the market due to what appears to be an inevitable plunge over the fiscal cliff on Friday. Noice.

Our so called leaders (BOTH side of the aisle, people) are awesome.

FUCK. I knew better than to be fully invested right now, and I got greedy, not believing they would let this happen. Since I am not a trader, I am not overly concerned that things will come back at some point, BUT it sure would have been nice to be sitting on a big wad of cash when this thing goes down...and then just buy like a fiend when the shit hits the fan.

/Farley: STOOPID, STOOPID, STOOPID!!

It's not just the "cliff". It's never a good sign when all the retail and fund-buying folks want back in-- everything was looking pretty fat. We had one of our informal stocks-over-beers meetings this weekend and everyone was planning on buying SPY/DIA/QQQ puts at the open today. I thought about looking at some of the leveraged short ETFs but got busy with the real job. Probably should have just done the puts.

But what is today, a 1-2% haircut maybe? Not the end of the world and it's never too late for anything. Remember those up and down 500 days? For weeks?

I understand the drop this afternoon is not significant in and of itself. I am just "calling it" as it were, thinking that this is probably the beginning of the slide (i.e. more, and bigger drops to come as we approach Friday).

Carpet_pissr wrote:I understand the drop this afternoon is not significant in and of itself. I am just "calling it" as it were, thinking that this is probably the beginning of the slide (i.e. more, and bigger drops to come as we approach Friday).

I guarantee it will go up and down in the future.

What are you calling a slide? 5%? 10%? 20%?

Carpet_pissr wrote:I understand the drop this afternoon is not significant in and of itself. I am just "calling it" as it were, thinking that this is probably the beginning of the slide (i.e. more, and bigger drops to come as we approach Friday).

Then you just got verification of your sell signal, not a missed opportunity to sell:

BUT it sure would have been nice to be sitting on a big wad of cash when this thing goes down...and then just buy like a fiend when the shit hits the fan.

If you think it's going to happen that way, getting out 2% below the top (2% depending on the open tomorrow I guess) isn't going to make a difference.

OTOH, if you're not yet fully convinced that the market is going to tank, you're just playing the omnipotent maybe/maybe card.

Good points


Not a TapAtalk Sig

Carpet_pissr wrote:I understand the drop this afternoon is not significant in and of itself. I am just "calling it" as it were, thinking that this is probably the beginning of the slide (i.e. more, and bigger drops to come as we approach Friday).

Well, Tuesday and Wednesday are out. Maybe tomorrow.

Fridays typically take a dip anyway as people go into the weekend. Or so my memory is telling me.

GreenGoo wrote:Fridays typically take a dip anyway as people go into the weekend. Or so my memory is telling me.

I would guess that Fridays are just like any other day. Otherwise, people would trade on the knowledge and there would be no advantage to be gained.

noxiousdog wrote:

GreenGoo wrote:Fridays typically take a dip anyway as people go into the weekend. Or so my memory is telling me.

I would guess that Fridays are just like any other day. Otherwise, people would trade on the knowledge and there would be no advantage to be gained.

Lots of traders like to close out positions on Fridays because those 2 whole days with no trading can be risky. Obviously all Fridays are different but all other things being equal you'll find traders closing out more on Fridays than other days. The reason it's not traded on enough to nullify the effeect, IMO, is 1) because the effect is relatively small compared to all other market factors and 2) because those that would trade on it are the same ones that don't want to hold over the weekend so the miniscule advantage they get isn't worth the perceived risk. As dominant as black boxes and HFT algos may be, there is still that bit of old Wall Street influencing the market.

I look at it this way. Bad stuff is more likely to happen over the weekend than good stuff. Conflicts, natural disasters, political scandals, arrests, etc don't generally care what day it is. OTOH, business announcements, sales numbers, statements, market sentiment, etc, all happen during the week. The former group usually only has a bad immediate impact on the overall market. The latter group can go either way. So over two days where you can't trade and mostly only bad things can happen, traders would rather not risk holding [certain] positions.


Again, it's not enough of an effect to really make money on and it may even be just a big myth, but lots of people begrudgingly accept it and by accepting it it kind of makes it real.

Using data from Yahoo, of 990 weeks where there was a Friday trading day after a Thursday, there have been 522 up days and 459 down days (9 unchanged).

Myth busted.

noxiousdog wrote:Using data from Yahoo, of 990 weeks where there was a Friday trading day after a Thursday, there have been 522 up days and 459 down days (9 unchanged).

Myth busted.

Nice numbers but that doen't really bust it. Like I said, the effect, if it exists, is smaller than just about all other market forces. So it won't necessarily manifest in lower closing prices on an index.

I wasn't saying that Fridays are down days, I was saying that many traders like to exit positions on Friday because of the weekend.

LawBeefaroni wrote:

noxiousdog wrote:Using data from Yahoo, of 990 weeks where there was a Friday trading day after a Thursday, there have been 522 up days and 459 down days (9 unchanged).

Myth busted.

Nice numbers but that doen't really bust it. Like I said, the effect, if it exists, is smaller than just about all other market forces. So it won't necessarily manifest in lower closing prices on an index.

I wasn't saying that Fridays are down days, I was saying that many traders like to exit positions on Friday because of the weekend.

The premise was "Fridays typically take a dip anyway as people go into the weekend. Or so my memory is telling me."

"Myth: busted" was just cleverness and it made my wife laugh. Success!

Good to know.

Carpet_pissr wrote:I understand the drop this afternoon is not significant in and of itself. I am just "calling it" as it were, thinking that this is probably the beginning of the slide (i.e. more, and bigger drops to come as we approach Friday).

NAILED IT!

DOW MARCHES TOWARD RECORD HIGH
http://money.cnn.com/2013/02/28/investi ... ?iid=HP_LN" target="_blank

Granted, the day is not over, but still...the smart, and/or big money is either 1)not worried abotu sequestration, or 2) has already priced temporary budget cuts in

Also, "they" could be so short term looking that we only get a big drop tomorrow, or even Monday, when stuff actually starts to get cut.

For those of you interested in starting to invest, this is a great lesson on why you never "call" anything with financial markets (*cough* buy an index fund *COUGH*), and also when you feel most confident about something that is going to happen, market-wise, or even specific stock-wise, THAT is precisely when you get schooled.

Fortunately, in my case, I didn't take any actions (move into cash), just annoying bloviating.

Carpet_pissr wrote:
Granted, the day is not over, but still...the smart, and/or big money is either 1)not worried abotu sequestration, or 2) has already priced temporary budget cuts in

Also, "they" could be so short term looking that we only get a big drop tomorrow, or even Monday, when stuff actually starts to get cut.

2 year VIX:

I assume you posted that to agree with the "it's already baked in" theory, but that's no indicator that things can't get MUCH worse (and not necessarily some big, dramatic drop on Monday morning, but a long, protracted selling as long as this complete clusterf^%#$ from our leaders continues).

Will be interesting to watch.

Also a third, what I would consider outlier possibility, is that big/smart money (let's call them BSM for brevity) thinks the sequestration was the only way to get our shit under control, even if violently and/or done in a manner that short term hurts us, but maybe long term is necessary.

Carpet_pissr wrote:I assume you posted that to agree with the "it's already baked in" theory, but that's no indicator that things can't get MUCH worse (and not necessarily some big, dramatic drop on Monday morning, but a long, protracted selling as long as this complete clusterf^%#$ from our leaders continues).

Will be interesting to watch.

Also a third, what I would consider outlier possibility, is that big/smart money (let's call them BSM for brevity) thinks the sequestration was the only way to get our shit under control, even if violently and/or done in a manner that short term hurts us, but maybe long term is necessary.

More that there was a 40% or so jump on this week's sequestration worries but things have calmed down. But I don't look at the VIX so much as a fear index than as an uncertainty index. BSM is fairly confident they know what's going to happen. How they've made their bets, we can't be too sure of just by the market hitting highs. I think much of the current rally are the latecomers getting their retail money into the market. If there is going to be a collapse, the more it runs up before it happens, the more money BSM is going to make.

Feb 21 wrote:Price of ROICW is .82, price of ROIC is 12.78.

Today ROIC announced 57% of their warrants have been retired.
ROIC is now trading at 13.59 and the warrants at 1.58.

I love seeing a good value and preying on uncertainty.

ROIC: 14.99
ROICW: 2.99

My guess is that sometime next year (March ish), based on valuation over the last 18 months and growth rates, ROIC should be in the vicinity of 17, which would give the warrants a 40% upside from here. That's not enough for me to be super greedy, so I'm reducing exposure.

Good run though! I'll pat myself on the back for this one.

Well, I ignored my own advice and got greedy. Had June ORCL $32 calls at $1.47/contract. Held all the way up to $3.50 or so earlier this week, figured I could ride them a few more weeks. Now they're worth $1.91 as ORCL has cratered. Live and [continue] to learn.

Sell off this week on ROIC, and it's back in purchase territory.

ROIC : 14.05
ROICW : 2.05

LawBeefaroni wrote:Well, I ignored my own advice and got greedy. Had June ORCL $32 calls at $1.47/contract. Held all the way up to $3.50 or so earlier this week, figured I could ride them a few more weeks. Now they're worth $1.91 as ORCL has cratered. Live and [continue] to learn.

Learned and got right back on that damned horse:

06/26/2013 Bought ORCL Aug 17 2013 32.0 Call @ 0.24
07/08/2013 Sold ORCL Aug 17 2013 32.0 Call @ 0.52



While I'm at it, some disclosure:
07/18/2013 Bought TSM Jan 18 2014 15.0 Call @ 2.5 (current bid $2.05)
07/19/2013 Bought HAL Aug 17 2013 45.0 Call @ 1.5 (current bid $2)

Have to love the shape of the DJIA today. Guess when the Fed said it was going to continue with the easing?

stessier wrote:Have to love the shape of the DJIA today. Guess when the Fed said it was going to continue with the easing?

The recovery is going so poorly we'll continue to fund bankers = market rally!

Oh, and I don't remember what got gobbled in the OOtage but I guess I should keep the disclosure going:

09/18/2013 Bought ORCL Oct 19 2013 35.0 Call @ 0.34

Great, now I am sitting on 30% cash and based on the way things were presented, and based on the stats used to make the decision, we might not start the taper until 2014!

Blargh...now what to do?!

Quick, someone feed me their top short term investment ideas! Preferably in the 4-6 month range, mkthanks.

Carpet_pissr wrote:Great, now I am sitting on 30% cash and based on the way things were presented, and based on the stats used to make the decision, we might not start the taper until 2014!

Blargh...now what to do?!

Quick, someone feed me their top short term investment ideas! Preferably in the 4-6 month range, mkthanks.

Buy ORCL calls about 5 hours ago? EDIT: or not, it's now getting pounded, guessing a really bad conference call.

Seriously, I don't think Bernanke changed things too much. If I had a 4-6 month time frame I'd look at some growth stocks in tech, retail, shipping/oil/gas. Be careful around earnings. Take short term gains.

I generally stay within my known universe of stocks so I don't have much suggest that I haven't already but just look for opportunities on fear and greed.

I took some risk capital and sold a covered Nov 16 call @ 32 for MSFT this morning. I'm pretty new to options so I've been relatively conservative. Only stocks that I have a good sense of and don't mind owning or having called away. That and keeping terms on the shorter end (which I realize may have risks of its own). I'm guessing MSFT will have so-so earnings, but that special dividend that they've announced plus the stock buy back will support their price level

xwraith wrote:I took some risk capital and sold a covered Nov 16 call @ 32 for MSFT this morning. I'm pretty new to options so I've been relatively conservative. Only stocks that I have a good sense of and don't mind owning or having called away. That and keeping terms on the shorter end (which I realize may . I'm guessing MSFT will have so-so earnings, but that special dividend that they've announced plus the stock buy back will support their price level

Interesting. IMO it will get exercised, but $32 is a good price. If not, win (around $2.10 right?).

LawBeefaroni wrote:Seriously, I don't think Bernanke changed things too much. If I had a 4-6 month time frame I'd look at some growth stocks in tech, retail, shipping/oil/gas. Be careful around earnings. Take short term gains.

I have a retail ETF right now that I am looking to sell as soon as the dividend cashes out. I bought when no one else wanted retail, and now that it's done better than expected, and given me a slight 7% gain, I will sell as I was just trying to be opportunistic, and didn't plan to hold long term. 7% is not great (held about 3-4 months), but the dividend is 1.06, so that will help.

The only thing Bernanke changed was the assumption by almost EVERYone that the tapering start would be announced yesterday, thus the runup.

Bottom line for me, in trying to determine when it will start, is to look at the numbers, as he himself very clearly stated yesterday...they will base the tapering "start" on empirical data ONLY, not other BS. Are the key indicators on the economy moving in the right direction? If it's not hitting several key milestones, then no taper.

That's my very simplified take on it at least. My completely useless, and probably harmful gut feeling is the Fed will be propping up the economy for a long while, yet. Maybe even into Q2 2014 or beyond. Crazy! At what point do we start worrying about inflation?

Carpet_pissr wrote:

LawBeefaroni wrote:Seriously, I don't think Bernanke changed things too much. If I had a 4-6 month time frame I'd look at some growth stocks in tech, retail, shipping/oil/gas. Be careful around earnings. Take short term gains.

I have a retail ETF right now that I am looking to sell as soon as the dividend cashes out. I bought when no one else wanted retail, and now that it's done better than expected, and given me a slight 7% gain, I will sell as I was just trying to be opportunistic, and didn't plan to hold long term. 7% is not great (held about 3-4 months), but the dividend is 1.06, so that will help.

If you sell on ex date you're giving the divy back anyway. Don't let that guide you.

But yeah, 7% in 4 months is 21% annualized. Nothing to sneeze at. (I sneezed at 58% in one day yesterday on those ORCL calls at the close and now they're down 60% so I guess who am I to talk? )

LawBeefaroni wrote:

xwraith wrote:I took some risk capital and sold a covered Nov 16 call @ 32 for MSFT this morning. I'm pretty new to options so I've been relatively conservative. Only stocks that I have a good sense of and don't mind owning or having called away. That and keeping terms on the shorter end (which I realize may . I'm guessing MSFT will have so-so earnings, but that special dividend that they've announced plus the stock buy back will support their price level

Interesting. IMO it will get exercised, but $32 is a good price. If not, win (around $2.10 right?).

I did a buy-write order which is a little more efficient for me in terms of fees (especially in my small volumes). The actual price I got per share was $1.84 for the call and the stock was at exactly $33. The way I look at it is kinda abstract, which is why I was willing to sell something in the money. Basically my thinking was this:
* I could earn $84 on $3300, holding it for roughly two months and getting a 2.5% ROI during that time (ex fees) and have the stock called away.
* The option isn't exercised, but I break-even (ex fees) at $31.16 so if the stock drops below 33 I'm still good for a bit (about 5% downside price protection)
* The option isn't exercised and I loose money because the stock dropped below break-even point. Well I got a discount on the stock I'm willing to hold in the medium to long term on the day I bought it

Of course that's because I've figured that MSFT should be pretty stable over the next couple of months. I'm sure there were stocks where you could get a higher return, but I wanted to remain on the conservative side.

LawBeefaroni wrote:Buy ORCL calls about 5 hours ago? EDIT: or not, it's now getting pounded, guessing a really bad conference call.

Seriously, I don't think Bernanke changed things too much. If I had a 4-6 month time frame I'd look at some growth stocks in tech, retail, shipping/oil/gas. Be careful around earnings. Take short term gains.

I generally stay within my known universe of stocks so I don't have much suggest that I haven't already but just look for opportunities on fear and greed.

How about something in your known universe, like WLP for instance? I have held it before, for years in fact, but don't have any now. Looking good again from what I can tell.

I had something pop up on an option screen I ran:

SSYS is the underlying stock (3d printer manufacturer) and its been floating in the $99-101 range for the past couple of days. The $100 call for December is paying a premium a little over $10. I was a little surprised that it would be that high, is it just a function of time and volatility along with a tight open interest? Looking at their balance sheet it looks like revenue is growing, but they are just barely loosing money. Perhaps they are growing rapidly so everybody is predicting a price target of $110+? Weird.

xwraith wrote:I had something pop up on an option screen I ran:

SSYS is the underlying stock (3d printer manufacturer) and its been floating in the $99-101 range for the past couple of days. The $100 call for December is paying a premium a little over $10. I was a little surprised that it would be that high, is it just a function of time and volatility along with a tight open interest? Looking at their balance sheet it looks like revenue is growing, but they are just barely loosing money. Perhaps they are growing rapidly so everybody is predicting a price target of $110+? Weird.

Well, $100 puts are around $9.50 so it would seem that not everybody is predicting $110. Granted the open interest on the puts is less but still, looks like volatility bets to me. With 8% short interest, might also be some hedges.

Also, a $10 call on a $100 stock isn't necessarily a bet that the price will be $110 by expiration in 87 days. It could be a bet that it will be $105 (or something like that) in 24 days (after their earnings release). Never forget time decay.

Also, why do the $100 calls mean more than other options? The December $90s are around $16. Would seem a "prediction" of $106, no?

Yeah I wasn't thinking about time decay and I was really underestimating the impact volatility. My initial reaction was "Wow, somebody would pay me $10 for a call!" and then I thought "Crap, somebody would pay me $10 for a call!" I found it hard to judge if, at first look, if this was a good deal or a bad deal. I've kept an eye on it and have seen lots of price swings and the impact on the option price so I'd say it was justified as I think the volatility jumped from something like the high thirties to a peak of almost sixty. I really wish that I had more capabilities to graph data and look back 30 days or so in the options market. I'd love to plot for calls Stock Price - Option Bid alongside Stock Price - Option Ask over time and see if there is some sort of meaningful trend there. Another interesting plot would be if you could calculate just what the premium (excluding intrinsic value) was and run that over time with IV.

noxiousdog wrote:I don't see this ending well.

Yeah, it's a really bad time to be borrowing to "invest." We're at record highs. Another culling of wealth is taking place.

If you want to be dumb, you can do it without going into debt. There are leveraged ETFs and options.

noxiousdog wrote:I don't see this ending well.

This sounds disastrous and I'm already pretty nervous with the markets at record highs. At some point there is going to be a correction, and a lot of margin will just accelerate the decline.