[WW] Crimson Moon III - Game ends in a Draw?

Austin · Post by **Austin** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 10:47 am

Well I have little doubt that silky will confirm things. Meaning we have the three wolves. Problem is that they only need silky's vote on me so I'm likely toast. If the Coroner is out there you must scan me tomorrow. If the Coroner is dead... not good. Sorry friends, I fear I'm a much better bad guy than a seer.

triggercut · Post by **triggercut** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 10:47 am

See, the three wolves can pick one of their own to counterclaim to be the Priest, but he'll only be able to say "I got the confession of <wolf teammate> and he's an innocent <profession>, and <oh boy, we're screwed> and he's <would you believe....lion tamer?>"

Silky · Post by **Silky** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 10:49 am

I am the thatcher.

Austin

I wish you wouldn't have needed to come out Unagi. I would have voted for Austin anyway and just wanted to make sure everyone would have checked in first.

triggercut · Post by **triggercut** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 10:50 am

Austin wrote:Well I have little doubt that silky will confirm things. Meaning we have the three wolves. Problem is that they only need silky's vote on me so I'm likely toast. If the Coroner is out there you must scan me tomorrow. If the Coroner is dead... not good. Sorry friends, I fear I'm a much better bad guy than a seer.

In the face of overwhelming evidence, you've done a masterful job of almost convincing the village of your innocence, while drawing out one of our specials. Coroner, stay hidden. Seer, stay hidden.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 10:51 am

triggercut wrote:
Austin wrote:Well I have little doubt that silky will confirm things. Meaning we have the three wolves. Problem is that they only need silky's vote on me so I'm likely toast. If the Coroner is out there you must scan me tomorrow. If the Coroner is dead... not good. Sorry friends, I fear I'm a much better bad guy than a seer.
In the face of overwhelming evidence, you've done a masterful job of almost convincing the village of your innocence, while drawing out one of our specials. Coroner, stay hidden. Seer, stay hidden.

Trig you are indeed an excellent bad guy.

Good luck village.

triggercut · Post by **triggercut** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 10:52 am

Austin wrote:Well I have little doubt that silky will confirm things. Meaning we have the three wolves. Problem is that they only need silky's vote on me so I'm likely toast. If the Coroner is out there you must scan me tomorrow. If the Coroner is dead... not good. Sorry friends, I fear I'm a much better bad guy than a seer.

No need for the coroner to scan you, actually.

Silky's verification means that you Identifying pr0ner as a wolf was utter horsepucky, and out and out lie.

It also means that Remus, you're next.

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 10:56 am

Yes, I think they are coordinating as we speak. I think one of their problems is that they now have 4 wolves they need to argue for.
pr0ner must be a wolf, Austin hinges on that.
I must be a wolf, or else I'm th preist calling out the fake seer.
You must be in with us this whole time of course.
And soon we'll be bringing Silky in, who will confirm he's the THATCHER and, he must be wolf #4 !!

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 10:57 am

Man, I take way to long to compose my replies....

triggercut · Post by **triggercut** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 10:59 am

Austin wrote:
triggercut wrote:
Austin wrote:Well I have little doubt that silky will confirm things. Meaning we have the three wolves. Problem is that they only need silky's vote on me so I'm likely toast. If the Coroner is out there you must scan me tomorrow. If the Coroner is dead... not good. Sorry friends, I fear I'm a much better bad guy than a seer.
In the face of overwhelming evidence, you've done a masterful job of almost convincing the village of your innocence, while drawing out one of our specials. Coroner, stay hidden. Seer, stay hidden.
Trig you are indeed an excellent bad guy. Good luck village.

I'm also a pretty decent villager!

Honestly, the wolfplay would've worked very well if not for the bizarre circumstances of Lassr being gone all day and then getting lynched. That, and tru1cy really saved the day for the village. I think he may have been the Seer after all, and scanned you and had his vote on you for what he stated as inocuous reasons that were actually based on real knowledge.

Silky · Post by **Silky** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 11:00 am

Austin wrote:Well I have little doubt that silky will confirm things. Meaning we have the three wolves. Problem is that they only need silky's vote on me so I'm likely toast. If the Coroner is out there you must scan me tomorrow. If the Coroner is dead... not good. Sorry friends, I fear I'm a much better bad guy than a seer.

How can we have three wolves between pr0ner, triggercut, unagi, and myself?

triggercut · Post by **triggercut** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 11:00 am

EDIT: bah, lunch begins. I'm out for a while, maybe checking in this afternoon sometime. Dunno.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 11:00 am

triggercut wrote:
Austin wrote:Well I have little doubt that silky will confirm things. Meaning we have the three wolves. Problem is that they only need silky's vote on me so I'm likely toast. If the Coroner is out there you must scan me tomorrow. If the Coroner is dead... not good. Sorry friends, I fear I'm a much better bad guy than a seer.
In the face of overwhelming evidence, you've done a masterful job of almost convincing the village of your innocence, while drawing out one of our specials. Coroner, stay hidden. Seer, stay hidden.

Sadly, the "evidence" you continued to present was lacking in fact and life. Now then, either all three pr0ner, Silky, and Unagi are wolves or Austin is. The safe bet for now is to lynch Austin due to the conflicting nature of the information.

Keep in mind for tomorrow though. IF Unagi lives through the night then we must lynch the other three unless he can give us a fourth innocent. A fourth innocent seals the game for the village so the wolves can not risk allowing Unagi to have that chance.

withdraw pr0ner

Silky · Post by **Silky** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 11:08 am

Unagi will live I am guessing. They will bank on him getting a dead or repeat villager. They will instead kill a villager to make the odds better in their favor. They will probably choose between Newcastle, Mr. Bubbles, or Zurai. Then the wolves will try some gamesmanship to get the village to lynch an innocent confirmed by the priest or the priest himself.

I wish I knew the roles of the lynched. That would make the prediction pretty easy. I suspect the seer is down but it might unluckily be the seer and coroner. I wouldn't be surprised if Remus comes out being a special tomorrow based upon who they nab at night.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 11:09 am

Remus West wrote:Keep in mind for tomorrow though. IF Unagi lives through the night then we must lynch the other three unless he can give us a fourth innocent. A fourth innocent seals the game for the village so the wolves can not risk allowing Unagi to have that chance.

I want to repeat this so that it is very clear. If Austin lied about being the Seer then Grund or tru1cy were indeed the Seer. That means the wolves know they have one other special that can cause them issues. The Priest. If Unagi makes it through the night then he must have lied. We also get proof if the Coroner scans Austin and finds him to be human. The fact is though that the Coroner need not scan Austin since Unagi's living through the night and being unable to give us a fourth innocent would give him away anyway.

Suppose tomorrow Unagi lives and does not give us another LIVE person's "role". Then we lynch either pr0ner or Silky. That way if we are wrong we give Unagi another chance to prove himself.

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 11:09 am

The true wolf #3 will be pulling some desprate stuff here, so be on guard.
I think after Remus it's Zurai. If the game doesn't end then, the village would have 1 more chance.

Silky · Post by **Silky** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 11:10 am

A minute too late Remus. I already shredded your plan.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 11:17 am

Silky wrote:Unagi will live I am guessing. They will bank on him getting a dead or repeat villager. They will instead kill a villager to make the odds better in their favor. They will probably choose between Newcastle, Mr. Bubbles, or Zurai. Then the wolves will try some gamesmanship to get the village to lynch an innocent confirmed by the priest or the priest himself.

I wish I knew the roles of the lynched. That would make the prediction pretty easy. I suspect the seer is down but it might unluckily be the seer and coroner. I wouldn't be surprised if Remus comes out being a special tomorrow based upon who they nab at night.

#1. It would be stupid wolves to risk their entire game on the chance of a repeat "scan" by the Priest. If Unagi should be able to produce another villager tomorrow then there would be a block of 4 voters. They would control the game from there and it would not matter what else happened.

And just so you know, I am not a special. Of any sort. So no worries on that. Neither am I a wolf though.

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 11:21 am

Remus West wrote:If Unagi makes it through the night then he must have lied.

You didn't apply the same hard fast rule to Austin though.

Remus West wrote:We also get proof if the Coroner scans Austin and finds him to be human. The fact is though that the Coroner need not scan Austin since Unagi's living through the night and being unable to give us a fourth innocent would give him away anyway.

No No No. If the Coroner is alive and he is either Newcastle, Mr.Bubbles, or Zurai - he should scan Austin for sure, if Austin scans as 'Wolf', that would be a 5th person in the circle (the convinced Coroner). I suppose if the Coronner is already in the circle, do what ya need to.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 11:25 am

Silky wrote:A minute too late Remus. I already shredded your plan.

You may have shredded things but it is certainly not my plan.

Let's look at the game from a numbers perspective.

We are at 9.
lynch Austin - 8
kill - 7

If Unagi is alive here and produces a new Villagers role then the wolves have lost, it will be 4 knowns to 3 unknowns. If any one of the 3 "knowns" dies in the night then they can all be trusted though.

Now, if Unagi is alive and can not give us another villager's role

We are at 9
lynch Austin - 8
kill - 7
lynch pr0ner - 6
kill - 5

Now Unagi has had another shot at producing a name. And the village has still not lost the game since Austin or pr0ner must be a hit on the wolf front.

We have no need to lynch our Priest. The wolves know that. If Unagi lives through the night then he is not the Priest.

triggercut I implore you to look at the outline above. If it happens that Unagi lives you need not be the deciding vote on a wolf-pile upon me. That goes for everyone else too but triggercut seems to be the most passionate about casting his vote my way.

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 11:28 am

Unagi wrote:
Remus West wrote:If Unagi makes it through the night then he must have lied.
You didn't apply the same hard fast rule to Austin though.
Remus West wrote:We also get proof if the Coroner scans Austin and finds him to be human. The fact is though that the Coroner need not scan Austin since Unagi's living through the night and being unable to give us a fourth innocent would give him away anyway.
No No No. If the Coroner is alive and he is either Newcastle, Mr.Bubbles, or Zurai - he should scan Austin for sure, if Austin scans as 'Wolf', that would be a 5th person in the circle (the convinced Coroner). I suppose if the Coronner is already in the circle, do what ya need to.

Wait.
Sorry man, no offense. But I would really only allow Newcastle and Mr.Bubbles into the fold under this circumstance, not Zurai. Hmm, maybe it's not wise to let anyone in as the coroner now that I think about it. Can't a wolf fake coroner flawlessly?

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 11:29 am

Unagi wrote:
Remus West wrote:If Unagi makes it through the night then he must have lied.
You didn't apply the same hard fast rule to Austin though.

Austin was NOT capable of proving himself AND giving us a large enough block to seal a village win. The Priest is.

Silky · Post by **Silky** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 11:29 am

The wolves must chose the lesser of two evils. Only they know which one is the best. Do you kill Unagi off and confirm two innocents (three if you count Triggercut) or do you hope that he gets someone he can't use.

Grund: innocent (wolves know role)
Lassr: innocent (wolves don't know role)
Tru1cy: innocent (wolves know role)

Unagi is the priest so now we add (wolves know role)
Silky: innocent (wolves know role) 1of 6
Pr0ner: innocent (wolves know role) 1 of 6

With another villager being slain tonight the odds are as bad as 3 out of six for the wolves and are as good as 6 out of 6. It will probably be more along the lines of 4 or 5 out of six with one or two specials down.

Yes I think the wolves will risk it. Doing anything else polarizes the innocent villagers to the two remaining known.

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 11:35 am

*does happy dance*

Bye Austin.

Thanks, Unagi, for proving that I was right. I am, indeed, the Butcher.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 11:37 am

pr0ner wrote:*does happy dance*

Bye Austin.

Thanks, Unagi, for proving that I was right. I am, indeed, the Butcher.

[Sarcasm]

I wouldn't have guessed that your packmate could have guessed your role.

[/sarcasm]

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 11:49 am

Austin wrote:
pr0ner wrote:*does happy dance*

Bye Austin.

Thanks, Unagi, for proving that I was right. I am, indeed, the Butcher.
[Sarcasm] I wouldn't have guessed that your packmate could have guessed your role. [/sarcasm]

It's too late. Your ruse was busted the moment you tried it.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 12:08 pm

Silky wrote:The wolves must chose the lesser of two evils. Only they know which one is the best. Do you kill Unagi off and confirm two innocents (three if you count Triggercut) or do you hope that he gets someone he can't use.

Grund: innocent (wolves know role)
Lassr: innocent (wolves don't know role)
Tru1cy: innocent (wolves know role)

Unagi is the priest so now we add (wolves know role)
Silky: innocent (wolves know role) 1of 6
Pr0ner: innocent (wolves know role) 1 of 6

With another villager being slain tonight the odds are as bad as 3 out of six for the wolves and are as good as 6 out of 6. It will probably be more along the lines of 4 or 5 out of six with one or two specials down.

Yes I think the wolves will risk it. Doing anything else polarizes the innocent villagers to the two remaining known.

So you are saying that there is another Seer out there. So why not come forward now. That way our block is already 4. AND the Seer need only provide ONE other scan of an innocent to lock the game down. Otherwise we know the Seer to be dead or Austin.

Assuming that Unagi is telling the truth a Seer with a SINGLE scan gives us a big enough block to have the village win no matter what the wolves do. If the Seer does not come forward we have to assume that he is dead or Austin.

We are at 9 players

IF Unagi is telling the truth we know 3 of the 9. If a non-Austin Seer comes forward with 1 scan then we are at 5 of 9. The wolves eat one of those known and we lynch Austin. We still have 4 knowns and only 3 unknown players. Rinse and repeat. The wolves can not take the known block down faster than the village removes the unknown block.

All this says is that if Unagi is telling the truth then the Seer is dead.

Which means that there are at best 2 villagers dead meaning that Unagi has a 33% chance of getting a new live villager for a certain lock on the game. Would you take those odds if you were a wolf?

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 12:10 pm

Let's make that clear folks. THE SEER MUST BE DEAD OR AUSTIN.

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 12:31 pm

Ahhhh see, now I am starting to see why the wolves would risk letting me live.
(for this argument, I am going to asume Zurai is in league)

Lets say tonight the wolves eat Mr Bubbles (or Newcastle).

That leaves Newcastle (or Mr Bubbles) for me to get a confession from. Not both. Everyone else is either dead or already in our block.

I would only have a 1/6 chance to hit the remaining villager, and a 5/6 chance of getting something unhelpful.

Considering the position I put the wolves in, I am sure that looks like great odds, hell - it is great odds.

Silky · Post by **Silky** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 12:43 pm

I would not at do not assume Zurai. I am sure you did that to illustrate a point and not to throw guilt around. Only time and one more lynching will tell which is the most likely of the three. And of course if you do get a good confession its lights out.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 12:46 pm

Silky wrote:And of course if you do get a good confession its lights out.

Yet you argue that the Wolves can afford to let him live. I feel sure that tru1cy or Grund was the Priest now. Lassr was a miss. Austin is a miss. You three are trying to set me up as the final miss.

Since all four of us will be alive tomorrow I'll talk to you then.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 12:55 pm

So like I have 5 votes right? I thought I saw Chaos come through earlier. He must be trying to allow the village to come to their senses. In a way I'm glad I don't have to deal with what's to come.

Silky · Post by **Silky** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 12:58 pm

Yes I can and have argued that Remus. The odds say that the priest will not get a hit but stranger things have happened. I am equally as sure that Grund or Tru1cy was the seer. My guess would be Tru1cy.

I also do not get the point you are arguing if you are in fact arguing anything. You are trying to show the village that Unagi, pr0ner, and myself are wolves. We have established that.

Don't think that is a little bit of a weak sauce argument? None of the three of us were in any danger of being lynched. Why would we plan to come out and lie about it now? I could have just as easily voted Austin lynched without Unagi coming forward if that was the case. In the version of events you are spewing wouldn't that have made the most sense? Why would we risk this gambit if all we had to do was to shut up to win?

I was not certain you are a wolf but these things you keep throwing out make it look like a 100% certainty. Only thing left is to find your remaining partner.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 1:07 pm

Austin wrote:So like I have 5 votes right?

Code: Select all

  triggercut acc Zurai(1)
  triggercut wd Zurai(0)
triggercut acc Austin(1)
  Austin acc triggercut(1)
  pr0ner acc Austin(2)
  Austin wd triggercut(0)
Mr Bubbless acc Austin(3)
Unagi acc Austin(4)
  pr0ner wd Austin(3)
pr0ner acc Austin(4)
  Remus West acc pr0ner(1)
Austin acc pr0ner(2)
Silky acc Austin(5)-, killing him
  Remus West wd pr0ner(1)

Against Austin(5): triggercut, Mr Bubbles, Unagi, pr0ner, Silky
Against pr0ner(1): Austin

No vote registered: Newcastle, Remus West, Zurai
Votes required for majority: 5

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 1:26 pm

Austin wrote:So like I have 5 votes right? I thought I saw Chaos come through earlier. He must be trying to allow the village to come to their senses. In a way I'm glad I don't have to deal with what's to come.

I think you are at 4 Austin.
We are needing Newcastle or Mr Bubbles (or Zurai to turn on a dime) to join us still, I am pretty sure.

triggercut · Post by **triggercut** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 1:31 pm

Unagi wrote:
Austin wrote:So like I have 5 votes right? I thought I saw Chaos come through earlier. He must be trying to allow the village to come to their senses. In a way I'm glad I don't have to deal with what's to come.
I think you are at 4 Austin.
We are needing Newcastle or Mr Bubbles (or Zurai to turn on a dime) to join us still, I am pretty sure.

Bubbles has an active vote out there on Austin I believe.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 1:35 pm

Silky wrote:Yes I can and have argued that Remus. The odds say that the priest will not get a hit but stranger things have happened. I am equally as sure that Grund or Tru1cy was the seer. My guess would be Tru1cy.

I also do not get the point you are arguing if you are in fact arguing anything. You are trying to show the village that Unagi, pr0ner, and myself are wolves. We have established that.

Don't think that is a little bit of a weak sauce argument? None of the three of us were in any danger of being lynched. Why would we plan to come out and lie about it now? I could have just as easily voted Austin lynched without Unagi coming forward if that was the case. In the version of events you are spewing wouldn't that have made the most sense? Why would we risk this gambit if all we had to do was to shut up to win?

I was not certain you are a wolf but these things you keep throwing out make it look like a 100% certainty. Only thing left is to find your remaining partner.

Actually pr0ner most certainly was in danger of being lynched. He had been called a wolf.

For the record, I am not saying that you ARE wolves. I am saying that if Unagi is lying then ALL THREE of you must be. As I said, I am not a special so I have no way to know for sure. I do find it interesting though that Unagi came forward only AFTER I mentioned the manner in which the Wolves could fake being the Priest.

I have also said that if any single ONE of you is killed in the night it verifies all three of you. You must either all be wolves or none.

As for the argument that the wolves would go after someone other than the three of you, when was the last time the wolves allowed a known quantity to live to take a risk on something else? Never happened. Never will. You take the sure bet. Kill what the village knows for certain so that you can try and hide in the remaining pieces.

9 - Lynch Austin as wolf
8 - Night kill -"known"
7- Lynch Remus West
6 - Night kill - "known"
5 - Lynch Player to be named later
4 - Kill last "known" or game already over if 5 and Lassr were misses
3 - Miss here with no knowns and game is over

9 - lynch Austin as wolf
8 - Night kill - non-known
7 - lynch non-known but wolf
6 - night kill - non-known
5 - Oops, 3/2 knowns to unknowns village wins.
Except that if Unagi is lying then it looks more like this

9 - lynch Austin as Seer
8 - Night kill - non-known
7 - lynch non-known = GAME OVER WOLVES WIN

We could do this though

9 - lynch Austin as Seer
8 - Night kill - non-known
7 - lynch pr0ner
6 - Night kill - non-known
5 - lynch player to be named later.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 1:39 pm

triggercut wrote:
Unagi wrote:
Austin wrote:So like I have 5 votes right? I thought I saw Chaos come through earlier. He must be trying to allow the village to come to their senses. In a way I'm glad I don't have to deal with what's to come.
I think you are at 4 Austin.
We are needing Newcastle or Mr Bubbles (or Zurai to turn on a dime) to join us still, I am pretty sure.
Bubbles has an active vote out there on Austin I believe.

Bubbles has not voted to the best of my knowledge. Trig, Unagi, Pr0ner, Silky... Cool. There some people who can put a stop to this madness then.

triggercut · Post by **triggercut** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 1:41 pm

Mr Bubbles wrote:Lynch Austin Just seems like a lot of the tricks I used to use as a wolf. I feel pretty confident that he's a wolf and that we'll be one step closer to winning.

Adios, wolfboy.

EDIT: see page 10.

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 1:45 pm

Remus, your continued championing of Austin as seer keeps putting more nails in your coffin.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 1:45 pm

triggercut wrote:
Mr Bubbles wrote:Lynch Austin Just seems like a lot of the tricks I used to use as a wolf. I feel pretty confident that he's a wolf and that we'll be one step closer to winning.
Adios, wolfboy.

EDIT: see page 10.

Okay, I had thought so. Carry on and have fun with the mess to come tomorrow when I prove out. Of course then you will know who all three wolves are. USP.