Octopus Overlords

I’ve stopped engaging in Twitter stories in the news (other than headlines), but are we sure his goal *isn’t* to just shut down Twitter-as-is and instead incorporate its tech into whatever his “X” everything app is? Makes sense to me to really turn the screws on the current burn rate while biding his time for that other project.

It would seem reasonable, only if he screws his creditors, then he'll become full on Trump; the last differential between the two being removed. Maybe it's a calculation on his part, but I'd hope that game is too dangerous and that he'd lose. But then maybe that'll be the foundation for selling Cybertruck. A US full of heavily financed Cybertrucks with black and white flag and gun decals all over them with Trump 2024 flags flying off them.

I've been thinking about this as well. I think Twitter may very well survive all this change and advertisers might slowly re-enter after the disruption risk settles down. Especially if the audience doesn't fragment. It'll be a slog considering how badly levered the deal was but it could happen. Musk might add in payment functionality or whatever and change the story.

However, no matter what it would need a heck of a memory hole to avoid being recorded as one of the biggest business blunders in modern times. He didn't need to spend $44B by setting the price to a weed meme. Any new functionality he sought possibly could have been developed and sold to Twitter or a competing social network independently for a fraction of the cost. And he didn't need to publicly shame people like a thin-skinned dictator in the process.

LordMortis wrote: Tue Nov 15, 2022 9:27 am It would seem reasonable, only if he screws his creditors, then he'll become full on Trump; the last differential between the two being removed. Maybe it's a calculation on his part, but I'd hope that game is too dangerous and that he'd lose. But then maybe that'll be the foundation for selling Cybertruck. A US full of heavily financed Cybertrucks with black and white flag and gun decals all over them with Trump 2024 flags flying off them.

This is another consideration. The grift-y nature of this. Dumping in big ad buys by other companies under his control? While other companies are staying away due to the brand risk? That's pretty 'sus' as the kids say.

The thing that strikes me is that in a normal situation, a new buyer would either put someone new in charge or just let the current workforce manage it for them, but in this case, he seems to want to be hands-on and is being very public about it in just about the worst way. If this guy ends up having a meltown, he'll end up taking out the twitterverse.

Could Twitter one day be worth $100B+? Sure. Was it worth $44B when he bought it? No.

The question is was it worth it to get wherever he thinks he's taking it. He's starting out pretty deep in a hole. And he insists on digging.

When he took it private, the market cap was $41B.

Isgrimnur wrote: Tue Nov 15, 2022 3:49 pm When he took it private, the market cap was $41B.

And it was only there because of his $54.20 nonsense.

LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Nov 15, 2022 3:51 pm

Isgrimnur wrote: Tue Nov 15, 2022 3:49 pm When he took it private, the market cap was $41B.

And it was only there because of his $54.20 nonsense.

Yep. I definitely regret not buying some shares in the runup for a quick profit on the company going private at that price.

pr0ner wrote: Wed Nov 16, 2022 8:55 am https://twitter.com/donie/status/159285 ... qxdNQ&s=19

Is he giving out 2.0 extreme hardcore compensation? Even then, if it were me, and I weren't a wuss, and I had an option, then I'd be making exit plans (If I hadn't already been making those plans after the mass firings and the public airing of grievances).

The beatings will continue until...

LordMortis wrote: Wed Nov 16, 2022 9:50 amIs he giving out 2.0 extreme hardcore compensation?

And he is extremely handcuffed on this. The usual incentive is options/RSUs. He can still do that with the promise of some long-term plan to return as a public company but that isn't going to be on any short time horizon most likely. So essentially it'd have to be cash. Maybe Twitter will generate enough cash to make 'extremely hardcore' work palatable but that seems far-fetched right now.

Translated:

"I vastly overpaid to take over this company for the sole purpose of being the Supreme Edgelord. As a result, I will slash any and all resources that I personally determine (based on my extremely limited knowledge and typically on the random whim of whomever tweeted at me last) are unnecessary, regardless of the impact that will have on the platform. I am the smartest guy in every room (according to me), and will refuse to listen to any input that contradicts whatever idea happens to live in my head at the moment. Any one who dares to push back on those ideas will be fired.

Because we will be so vastly understaffed and underresourced, those staying will be expected to work themselves to the bone to cater to my whims. They will be subject to random and arbitrary inspections of their work and if I feel - for any reason whatsoever - that their work fails to meet my constantly shifting expectations - they will be fired. They will also be fired if they dare speak bad of me, their kind and benevolent overlord.

You can either agree to all of this, or leave."

Such truly inspiring leadership!

LordMortis wrote: Wed Nov 16, 2022 9:50 am Even then, if it were me, and I weren't a wuss, and I had an option, then I'd be making exit plans

I guarantee that every person there (outside of the hardest of the hardcore sycophants) is currently making exit plans. If they're not, they're insane.

That the way in which our implementation of capitalism encourages big business to be lead by sociopaths isn't more widely disdained astounds me. I mean I know that's precisely what we're seeing in action, but it only seems like commentary because we know that boulder can't actually be shoved back uphill without cataclysmic revolution. Political revolution, not like... applying revolution to the boulder. (But one of you in the field of engineering/physics may be able to explain how physical revolution actually could propel the rock back up the hill.) We continue to ignore the cost of human unhappiness.

Skinypupy wrote: Wed Nov 16, 2022 9:55 amI guarantee that every person there (outside of the hardest of the hardcore sycophants) is currently making exit plans. If they're not, they're insane.

What's sort of nuts is Musk is making an offer to the people who remain (supposedly the best) to get 3 months of pay for jumping ship. The best who don't want to put up with his nonsense are going to do it. He is INVITING BRAIN DRAIN. It's supposed to be disruptive but it still feels like 'Elon's Billions' to me at this point.

I can only imagine the books that are going to come out and Elon's attempts to suppress them.

Sudy wrote: Wed Nov 16, 2022 10:02 am I can only imagine the books that are going to come out and Elon's attempts to suppress them.

He'll just write his own. It'll be by an 'extremely hardcore' ghost writer.

Also of note - it isn't clear what audience received the note from Musk. Employment lawyers from overseas are saying it's not legal in the UK or most of the EU to demand this. The 3-months term seems aimed at US law though so maybe he bounded it to the CONUS?

It's hard to imagine anybody *wanting* to work there, although in the face of widespread tech layoffs they might feel compelled.

I had one of those "hardcore" jobs with endless hours during the brutal crunch times, but we earned royalties on our games and enjoyed considerable downtime between projects.

Kraken wrote: Wed Nov 16, 2022 10:13 am I had one of those "hardcore" jobs with endless hours during the brutal crunch times, but we earned royalties on our games and enjoyed considerable downtime between projects.

That's the thing. If you don't own the capital, what is the upside to be hardcore all the time? Hardcore for others needs to come with hardcore compensation or desperation.

Twitter provides a service paid by ad revenue. Tech is the means by which the service is provided. Elon is terrible with customer relations and marketing. That miscalculation is destroying Twitter, and will become an epic case study of hardcore failure in business schools.

No matter how good a server tech they use and no matter how hard they work, Elon is going to screw it up.

The message between the lines, "We, the company who has been discarding people left and right as if they were worthless, hereby inform you that if you aren't an engineer, you hold no value to us. Click below to opt in."

As I said before, Jenga. Every move he makes further destabilizes Twitter. I don't envy working there at the moment. It sounds like a very toxic workplace, not to mention the uncertainty of job security with his pulse on button.

pr0ner wrote: Wed Nov 16, 2022 8:55 am https://twitter.com/donie/status/159285 ... qxdNQ&s=19

Is that in any way binding?

Then there's this.

I suppose he skirts that by giving the 3 months severance.

Psshh... only one X?

Musk seems to misunderstand the whole thing.

"At its heart, Twitter is a software and servers company" is just wrong. The software and servers seem to have been worked out pretty well long before Musk came on the scene.

Instead, Twitter is a communication and information service, and the problems it faces mostly have to do with misinformation, propaganda, validity, and reliability.

Saying "Twitter is a software and servers company" is like saying journalism is mostly about paper supply and ink quality.

Bang on. And because he misunderstands it, the decisions he makes have him fumbling terribly. It's like being a king who doesn't understand his own country and has no idea of its geography.

It makes you wonder how he has been this successful.

Alefroth wrote: Thu Nov 17, 2022 2:31 am It makes you wonder how he has been this successful.

"First, get a million dollars..."

Well, one could say owning and running a car company is very different to that of a social media company. It's likely he knows what he's doing with Tesla, but he seems to be using a cowboy managerial style for Twitter.

Rumpy wrote: Thu Nov 17, 2022 2:05 pm Well, one could say owning and running a car company is very different to that of a social media company. It's likely he knows what he's doing with Tesla, but he seems to be using a cowboy managerial style for Twitter.

He was a cowboy with Tesla too.

Yeah, I'm sure. I'm just saying his style towards Twitter feels more visible, perhaps because of the social context. Ironically enough, because of this, he doesn't seem to be very good with people.

Ironically we are still looking for Twitter news on Twitter...although #RIPTwitter is now trending.

https://twitter.com/alexeheath/status/1 ... 27808?s=20

https://twitter.com/ZoeSchiffer/status/ ... 4785504257
https://twitter.com/ZoeSchiffer/status/ ... 4301054976
https://twitter.com/ZoeSchiffer/status/ ... 4038899717

7-10 days, tops. That's my guess.

Musk: No more working from home!

Employees: So we should come back to the offices?

Musk: No!

Employees: Ummmm

Smoove_B wrote: Thu Nov 17, 2022 9:52 pm 7-10 days, tops. That's my guess.

Is this how long Twitter lasts or how long Musk lasts without impregnating a subordinate at Twitter. I mean they locked everyone out for their own protection.

I'm sure that Elmo and his crack team of Tesla volunteers will have this all sorted out in no time with all the deadwood cleared out.