Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Jaymon · Post by **Jaymon** » Tue Jun 23, 2020 7:23 pm

Florida in August with masks on? thats going to be a very hot and uncomfortable trip. Probably no pool as well.
And with all the other restrictions, you are unlikely to get "the Disney Experience" so its just not worth it IMHO

Personally I think August is too soon, the re-opening shitshow will be still ramping up, and who knows what kind of closures are coming. If everybody who goes to Disney the first few weeks after opening ends up testing postive a month later, no amount of lawyers is going to keep that park open.

If you can reschedule to a later time when its less restrictive, then thats a good choice. Seems the 18 month timeline for vaccine has been massively compressed, amazing what happens when most of the world gets focused on a single goal eh? So next Feb, you might even be able to travel to Disney in relative safety.

Blackhawk · Post by **Blackhawk** » Tue Jun 23, 2020 7:38 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Jun 23, 2020 7:09 pm
Trampolines and pools are even harder to find than Switches!

Fair point. But those were just the easy examples, and without knowing the target audience (EG's family.)

For my family it was a copy of Borderlands 3 for my eldest, a season pass for all three of us, and many, many days of LAN parties. It's turned a canceled summer into a lot of laughs and memories. Granted, our summer plans weren't a trip to a theme park, either.

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Tue Jun 23, 2020 7:45 pm

Blackhawk wrote:Granted, our summer plans weren't a trip to a theme park, either.

One could put forth a pretty solid argument that your plans were better, COVID-19 or not...

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Tue Jun 23, 2020 7:49 pm

Blackhawk wrote: Tue Jun 23, 2020 7:38 pm Fair point. But those were just the easy examples, and without knowing the target audience (EG's family.)

I can give them free access to my introductory public health course for fun. I cover pandemics, down-cycling and antibiotic resistant gonorrhea (just to name a few things). Fun for the whole family!

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Tue Jun 23, 2020 7:52 pm

Any updates based on this pandemic? A collection of the best bloopers? 'Oops NJ killed 12% of nursing home patients. Talk about egg on your face!?!' *Cue price is right tuba*

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Tue Jun 23, 2020 8:02 pm

I am pretty much re-doing the entire course now, yes. Between the COVID material and the official, formal changes national public health agencies have stated related to racism, it's pretty much required.

We will still cover beaver fever, so I'm confident I maintain the laughs and good times.

Alefroth · Post by **Alefroth** » Tue Jun 23, 2020 8:48 pm

Inslee requires masks for anyone outside for WA. Of course my GOP rep is complaining about overstepping his authoity.

https://komonews.com/news/coronavirus/c ... RyGgmjFujs

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Tue Jun 23, 2020 8:59 pm

Kid had karate in the park. I went.

Beer league 16" ball was going on. Little league practice. People all over. Dogs off leashes. No masks anywhere.
People are so done GAF.

And bars open this weekend. Does 50% capacity mean 50% of the fire marshal capacity or 50% of seating? If it's the latter, folding chair sales are about to blow up.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Tue Jun 23, 2020 9:14 pm

I just saw the collected stats about what is happening in AZ, CA, TX, and UT. Jeez this bad. That we are seeing exponential growth (re)starting is horrifying.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Tue Jun 23, 2020 9:29 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Jun 23, 2020 8:59 pm And bars open this weekend. Does 50% capacity mean 50% of the fire marshal capacity or 50% of seating? If it's the latter, folding chair sales are about to blow up.

For reference, there were a few NJ shore bars that were given written warnings and one in a town with a population of about 20K that had it's outdoor bar license revoked based on what was happening this past weekend. Packed, no masks, no social distancing - just open for business like everything is super terrific. Our governor has already started communicating tone suggesting he's ready to slow down ("pause") the slow opening of everything and based on what I'm seeing I am pretty confident that's happening. NJ might be first in the nation to re-apply the screws after slowly opening up - I guess we'll see.

But yes, people are generally done with this. My parents (early 70s) and my aunt (mid 70s) have communicated it to me. They've had enough - they feel "robbed" (their words) of the last 4 months. So I've basically been handling all their food and household needs to keep them lower risk, but they'll likely be first in line when the casinos open up next weekend. My aunt already made her hair appointment for next week - she's said she doesn't care anymore and having her hair cut is all she can think about.

malchior wrote: Tue Jun 23, 2020 9:14 pm I just saw the collected stats about what is happening in AZ, CA, TX, and UT. Jeez this bad. That we are seeing exponential growth (re)starting is horrifying.

Yes. And the problem is what we're seeing now is a result of what they were doing ~2 weeks ago. We're not going to see what's happening right now until early July and there doesn't seem to be any interest in stopping what's going on. I'm still going with Sep/Oct for 200K deaths, but maybe I'm wrong - maybe it'll be sooner.

wonderpug · Post by **wonderpug** » Tue Jun 23, 2020 9:45 pm

It's so weird being in a state (New Mexico) that's doing really well with slowing the spread, and being sandwiched by two states having huge spikes from botching the whole thing. I wish it was possible to close our borders to Texas and Arizona.

Sadly, but smartly, they've just officially cancelled the big international Albuquerque hot air balloon festival. I think it normally gets close to a million attendees, and has an 'estimated economic impact' of $170M for the region.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Tue Jun 23, 2020 9:46 pm

If it follows the same general pattern as early April it could be 200K by mid-August. That's back of envelope math right now. I pick that early April date out because we were seeing the same amount of confirmed cases. It could be a bit flawed for forecasting because testing was worse.

In any case using that as a rough guide we can draw a loose inference. We are at 120K or so dearhs running 750 - 1000 deaths per day. In 2 weeks that may be around 130 - 135K because it seems unlikely it will slow dow. Instead deaths should accelerate and the per day rate may be starting to be double what it is now. Approximately 1500 - 2000 and accelerating. That gets us there 30 or so days after 4th of July. I added a couple of weeks as fudge factor. Thats horrible. We might be having very different discussions in only a few weeks.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Tue Jun 23, 2020 9:46 pm

And lots of debate I'm seeing in my circles about what this means.

The U.S. is seeing a "disturbing surge" of COVID-19 infections, particularly in the Southeast and West, Dr. Anthony Fauci said during a House Energy and Commerce Committee hearing Tuesday.

Playing a large part in this surge, health officials say, are increasing cases in younger people, in their 20s, 30s and 40s — increases that are driven, in part, by increased testing, but even more so by large gatherings.

...

McDeavitt said Houston is seeing "very rapid increases" in new patients sick enough to be hospitalized, although the age range of the patients is unclear. However, most of those patients don't need intensive care or mechanical ventilation, McDeavitt said.

That suggests that current patients aren't quite as sick as those who fell ill in March and April. McDeavitt said that while it's true that doctors now have access to treatments like remdesivir and convalescent plasma, "our leading hypothesis is that we are probably seeing a slightly younger patient population."

I'll leave it up to the epidemiologists to argue over, but it's an interesting change.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Tue Jun 23, 2020 9:49 pm

That is interesting and perhaps it explains why the death rare has fallen some but also a risk if NJ is any guide.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Tue Jun 23, 2020 9:51 pm

The unofficial consensus I'm seeing is that 20-30 somethings are going to keep the virus circulating. They're not going to (broadly) suffer as many negative effects but they'll keep transmission levels high enough that elders and at risk populations are going to be under siege until a vaccine is developed.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Tue Jun 23, 2020 9:59 pm

The plan is for my university to open again with a hybrid plan: distancing, masks, cleaning, half-full classrooms, supplementary remote lessons, the works.

But this still puts all the students together in the dorms, social spaces, and etc, not to mention off-campus housing and parties and all the bars and restaurants.

I’ll be surprised if we actually open on campus and relieved if I have half of my usual teaching load.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Tue Jun 23, 2020 10:08 pm

My employer released an 85 page document last week covering (generally) operation of the campus - full time faculty and staff. Nothing at all about students or teaching - basically a really broad overview as to how the campus will be running as they inch closer to September.

I fully appreciate that there are students that cannot learn or thrive at home and I do think it makes sense to have on-campus housing for those that need to be out of poor learning environments at home.

I cannot imagine a scenario where a university is encouraging 50% or even 30% of their student population back. I'm thinking it will be closer to 20% and space will be reserved for those that need to have hands on or in-person learning (engineers, lab sciences, fine arts). But even for those students, dealing with living arrangements, on campus-transport, dining services...it's going to be nuts.

My department is being beyond good to me - they stepped up to get people like me (adjuncts) hired again for the Fall after the hiring freeze was implemented in April. I normally have one or two lectures on campus each semester but will be fully online for the Fall. I was given the option to have in person lectures (one class is ~40, the other is ~90) but I don't think either is feasible based on current guidance.

It's pretty crazy to me that the semester starts in about 9 weeks and there's still no official plan that's been communicated. I can only imagine what registration levels are like - they have to be historically off.

Zarathud · Post by **Zarathud** » Tue Jun 23, 2020 10:11 pm

Just had my first client meeting where they insisted on taking the masks off. 90 and 70 years old. She called it a “little flu.” Ugh.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Tue Jun 23, 2020 10:39 pm

Smoove_B wrote: Tue Jun 23, 2020 9:51 pm The unofficial consensus I'm seeing is that 20-30 somethings are going to keep the virus circulating. They're not going to (broadly) suffer as many negative effects but they'll keep transmission levels high enough that elders and at risk populations are going to be under siege until a vaccine is developed.

That's my observation in MA. Adherence to best practices rises with age, and 20-somethings just don't care anymore.

Wife and I are trying to nail down a trip to MI that neither of us wants to make, but that feels unavoidable. We're still paying the bills on my late BIL's house in Lansing; Wife needs to go thru his possessions to rescue things of value before we can hire someone to trash it out and put it on the market...he was a hoarder, and this is the house that she grew up in. It will take her at least several days to hunt for treasure. We know that he had a valuable baseball card collection, for example, and suspect that he hid cash around the house too. At the same time, my sister in Muskegon is starting chemo for ovarian cancer, leading up to surgery in (probably) August; I really need to see her for what might be one last time. These are compelling reasons to travel.

Mid-August looks like our best window of opportunity, work-wise. I worry that if we push it much beyond that we'll be courting a major fall surge. We'll probably drive; neither of us wants to fly, and we'll need our car to bring home whatever junk Wife rescues from Lansing, as well as to shuttle around the state. We're too old to make that drive in one day, so we'll need to stay overnight in upstate NY (probably Syracuse) each way. In MI, we'll have to split our time between Lansing and Muskegon, roughly 2 hours apart. I'm thinking of staying in a motel or airBnB in either Lansing or GR (where I still have a couple of friends and which is midway between those places), for probably 3 nights. We have friends in Brighton (who are pretty sure they had the covid in March) who could put us up, but that's an additional 90 minutes in the wrong direction. Wife dismisses staying in the Lansing house that we own. The place is a real pit, it smells bad, and it's filled with too many ghosts. But man, it would make so much logistic sense. Since my sister will be severely immunocompromised, I won't be hanging out with her for any time or proximity, so the Muskegon leg of the trip can be a single daytrip from Lansing. Plus my nephew and niece are buried in babies and toddlers that I am expected to want to meet, and I just don't tolerate toddlers well at all.

Minimum trip duration will be 7 days (2 on the road each way and 3 in state), and we'll have to get all of our meals out. This strikes me as way more dice-rolling than I care to do, and yet I don't feel like we can put it off. Between property taxes and insurance and keeping the water and power on, the Lansing house is costing us around $5,000/yr. It's only worth $70,000, and we have to split that with my surviving BIL. We're basically spending down the asset while we avoid taking action.

On the plus side, both NY and MI are in the Good States category...so far.

This isn't remotely political so maybe I should copy it to the EBG thread, but I'd appreciate everyone's feedback.

Enough · Post by **Enough** » Tue Jun 23, 2020 11:46 pm

Well everything Smoove taught me says that with current data that hospitals are the best leading indicators and deaths are the lagging indicators. Ummm, the biggest hospital in TX (and apparently the word?) will exceed base capacity in four days...

https://twitter.com/MichaelSocolow/stat ... 0657104896

Spoiler:

Paingod · Post by **Paingod** » Wed Jun 24, 2020 7:53 am

Smoove_B wrote: Tue Jun 23, 2020 3:16 pm In unrelated news, holy shit snacks

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/12 ... 0486321154

This isn't looking good, folks

This is the sort of spiking we saw early on before anyone was sent home. It's like people in those states have just completely given up trying to prevent it.

This morning I was still the only one in sight at the gas station with a mask on when I dealt with the cashier, and still had my glove on when handling the pump. The other patrons were all "manly men" - looked like construction workers or general contractors. The cashier had no mask, but probably felt safe behind her 6' x 6' plexiglass shield with an 8" gap at the bottom to pass items back and forth to scan.

I don't plan on relaxing any time soon.

YellowKing · Post by **YellowKing** » Wed Jun 24, 2020 7:54 am

The governor is holding a press conference today to talk about whether or not we will go to Phase 3.

The state's cases are climbing, hospital visits are soaring. I'm not sure why this is even a discussion.

Paingod · Post by **Paingod** » Wed Jun 24, 2020 8:04 am

YellowKing wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 7:54 am The governor is holding a press conference today to talk about whether or not we will go to Phase 3.

The state's cases are climbing, hospital visits are soaring. I'm not sure why this is even a discussion.

The answer is, of course, damn the torpedoes and full speed ahead. These Americans are warriors now. They must sacrifice themselves to beat the faceless enemy of the Economy.

In many states, they've drafted the entire populace without actually telling them as much.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Wed Jun 24, 2020 8:48 am

https://twitter.com/TheOnion/status/1275091049019473923

City Enters Phase 4 Of Pretending Coronavirus Over

That's where we've been in Chicago. I mean still masks in stores and certain businesses are still closed but everything else is "fuck it". Friday is going to be a big, socially close party.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Wed Jun 24, 2020 10:13 am

Enough wrote: Tue Jun 23, 2020 11:46 pm Well everything Smoove taught me says that with current data that hospitals are the best leading indicators and deaths are the lagging indicators. Ummm, the biggest hospital in TX (and apparently the word?) will exceed base capacity in four days...

Wow. I hadn't seen that. I did see someone reporting that a pediatric hospital was now taking adult patients to deal with the surge in hospitalizations.

If only there was some way to have prevented all this. I guess the that the Texas Governor is now sort of Trumping down to the locals. He's refusing to take any state-level action, but he's giving power back to local officials to let them decide if they want to take more aggressive action.

EDIT: Also, apparently yesterday the US reported ~34K new cases. Back when NJ/NY were at their peak and driving the numbers, the US reported ~38K new cases in a single day - the highest it ever went (4/26). So likely by Friday the new peak daily cases will be here.

That's good, but it also assumes all locals are acting in unison. I am beginning to wonder if the nation was watching what unfolded in NJ and NY over the last three months.

Freyland · Post by **Freyland** » Wed Jun 24, 2020 10:26 am

Narrator: "No, they were not."

Octavious · Post by **Octavious** » Wed Jun 24, 2020 10:38 am

Smoove_B wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 10:13 am
Enough wrote: Tue Jun 23, 2020 11:46 pm Well everything Smoove taught me says that with current data that hospitals are the best leading indicators and deaths are the lagging indicators. Ummm, the biggest hospital in TX (and apparently the word?) will exceed base capacity in four days...
Wow. I hadn't seen that. I did see someone reporting that a pediatric hospital was now taking adult patients to deal with the surge in hospitalizations.

If only there was some way to have prevented all this. I guess the that the Texas Governor is now sort of Trumping down to the locals. He's refusing to take any state-level action, but he's giving power back to local officials to let them decide if they want to take more aggressive action.

EDIT: Also, apparently yesterday the US reported ~34K new cases. Back when NJ/NY were at their peak and driving the numbers, the US reported ~38K new cases in a single day - the highest it ever went (4/26). So likely by Friday the new peak daily cases will be here.

That's good, but it also assumes all locals are acting in unison. I am beginning to wonder if the nation was watching what unfolded in NJ and NY over the last three months.

If we weren't testing the numbers wouldn't be so high! We so totally f'd...

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:06 am

https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1275465425657176065

Makes sense - after all, testing causes coronavirus cases.

noxiousdog · Post by **noxiousdog** » Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:13 am

Smoove_B wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 10:13 am If only there was some way to have prevented all this. I guess the that the Texas Governor is now sort of Trumping down to the locals. He's refusing to take any state-level action, but he's giving power back to local officials to let them decide if they want to take more aggressive action.

Yes and no. He's providing a lot of state level support, but is also allowing significant freedom to counties. 10% of Texas counties have 80% of the cases.

He did back up cities that want to do forced mask wearing in that cities can force businesses to wear masks for both employees and clients including financial penalties or closure, but he has said individuals themselves cannot be fined by cities.

There is mixed information on schools.I definitely don't like this ambiguity. He should be taking a harder line approach, imo.

He's really in a dilemma though. Most of the state by area isn't serious. And his real message is don't be an idiot. Wear a mask. Don't go out if you don't have to and listen to your local officials. He wears a mask at his press conferences except when he's speaking. Considering his electorate, I think he's doing a pretty good job.

Jaymann · Post by **Jaymann** » Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:14 am

Cue Downfall bunker scene.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:20 am

Smoove_B wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 10:13 am EDIT: Also, apparently yesterday the US reported ~34K new cases. Back when NJ/NY were at their peak and driving the numbers, the US reported ~38K new cases in a single day - the highest it ever went (4/26). So likely by Friday the new peak daily cases will be here.

worldometer says 36k (What a horrible trend but the death toll is still way better than it was when we in 30ks in April)

+36,015

With the big players being

California +6,503
Texas +5,370
Arizona +3,593
Florida +3,286
Georgia +1,750
Louisiana +1,474

+20226

I'm a bit surprised to see Louisiana. With them being the early hard hit southern state, I'd have though they would have stabilized more even if people turn their backs on safe distance and PPE.

Also, locally, bars being open is looking like it may be a direct catalyst for the small Michigan upswing, just like they were the catalyst for shutting the state down in March. One college bar in East Lansing at reduced capacity and....

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/ ... 246870001/

The Ingham County Health Department said Tuesday at least 22 people who visited an East Lansing bar have tested positive for the coronavirus.

Of the 22 positive cases, at least 14 who tested positive for coronavirus were at Harper's Restaurant and Brew Pub between June 12-20, the department said. The pub is near Michigan State University's campus.

(pics of what reduced capacity and lines and no social distancing or PPE)

This is who will be voting in November and what they think of March, April, May, and June. But then as long as they don't go home and see their parents or talk at risk friends, the only people they expose are service industry people they don't care about.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:26 am

noxiousdog wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:13 amTX stuff

Thanks. I will fully admit ignorance of what's happening outside of NJ - at least, the finer details.

Hey Utah, we need to talk:

https://twitter.com/V2019N/status/1275806542248333312

Gov. Gary Herbert (R): “no plans to shut down Utah’s economy” after the state’s epidemiologist warned that the “only viable option to manage spread and deaths will be a complete shutdown” and urged the governor to reimpose tougher limits on public life. -via @nytimes

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:30 am

noxiousdog wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:13 am He did back up cities that want to do forced mask wearing in that cities can force businesses to wear masks for both employees and clients including financial penalties or closure, but he has said individuals themselves cannot be fined by cities.

That's a POTUS lite copout, IMO. The state should be working with local units to determine where in state different measures are necessary, just as the states should be working with POTUS. Otherwise it's chaos. I totally get that one size does not fit all, and the wider the geography, the less it fits but we have local, county, state, country for a reason. To bind us so we don't have figure a unique arbitration every six miles or less.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:31 am

On the one hand you have "shutdowns caused too much pain."

On the other you have "no shutdowns gonna cause worse pain PLUS will make all the previous shutdowns have been done in vain."

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:35 am

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:31 am On the one hand you have "shutdowns caused too much pain."

On the other you have "no shutdowns gonna cause worse pain PLUS will make all the previous shutdowns have been done in vain."

Also we'll just shutdown the economy in practicality when people realize this shit is real.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:52 am

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:31 am On the other you have "no shutdowns gonna cause worse pain PLUS will make all the previous shutdowns have been done in vain."

I don't believe that is true, previous shut downs slowed the explosion. Gave us time to build a response. Another spiral *shouldn't* reinfect those that weathered the storm and won't affect those that needed to and couldn't. That said, I'm still not comfortable with the risk of the second spiral nor with a government that is. (And that would be even doubly strong if I lived in an area that hasn't seen the worst of it yet, as it is yet to come for them). We just need to be collectively responsible as we move forward and part of that is deferring to responsible informed government oversight and the trusted knowledge communities that inform them.

Enough · Post by **Enough** » Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:52 am

malchior wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:35 am
LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:31 am On the one hand you have "shutdowns caused too much pain."

On the other you have "no shutdowns gonna cause worse pain PLUS will make all the previous shutdowns have been done in vain."
Also we'll just shutdown the economy in practicality when people realize this shit is real.

Open Table data is admittedly not perfect, but I saw graphs that I cannot find now of data for two states that reopened that showed a massive increase immediately after reopen and now a massive decline in business with the news of spiking cases out. A lot of folks will just not go out if they see it out of control.

noxiousdog · Post by **noxiousdog** » Wed Jun 24, 2020 12:02 pm

LordMortis wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:30 am
noxiousdog wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:13 am He did back up cities that want to do forced mask wearing in that cities can force businesses to wear masks for both employees and clients including financial penalties or closure, but he has said individuals themselves cannot be fined by cities.
That's a POTUS lite copout, IMO. The state should be working with local units to determine where in state different measures are necessary, just as the states should be working with POTUS. Otherwise it's chaos. I totally get that one size does not fit all, and the wider the geography, the less it fits but we have local, county, state, country for a reason. To bind us so we don't have figure a unique arbitration every six miles or less.

They are. There's full coordination and reporting. He has been giving regular updates and created state level hospital and testing data in addition to several other task forces.

I don't doubt he could do more, but for a fiercely independent state, and in contrast with his Lt. Governor (which apparently is a pretty important office in Texas), he's exceeding my expectations.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Wed Jun 24, 2020 12:14 pm

NY/NJ/CT all signed onto a practice of quarantining people arriving from states that have spikes of coronavirus - NJ.com

Travelers coming to New Jersey from states where coronavirus cases are spiking must quarantine for 14 days, according to a new travel advisory announced by Gov. Phil Murphy on Wednesday.

The announcement was made along with the governors of New York and Connecticut, which all agreed to the restriction. The travel advisory takes effect at midnight Wednesday.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Wed Jun 24, 2020 12:18 pm

Enough wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:52 am Open Table data is admittedly not perfect, but I saw graphs that I cannot find now of data for two states that reopened that showed a massive increase immediately after reopen and now a massive decline in business with the news of spiking cases out. A lot of folks will just not go out if they see it out of control.

Edit: Embeded in a reply but shows the trend mentioned.

https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/ ... 11521?s=20