Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint
Posted: Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:02 am
I've lost track... Why do we fear Bill Gates these days?
That is not dead which can eternal lie, and with strange aeons bring us some web forums whereupon we can gather
http://garbi.online/forum/
He once said that limiting population growth would be important to the future health of the planet and society, therefore any vaccine project he funds is actually an attempt to wipe out much of the human race, leaving Bill Gates and his friends as overlords.
The scary part is that these QAnon fucktards are slowly starting to infiltrate government by running for office and winning elections.Grifman wrote:There is a more extended version of the first woman circulating on Twitter - what you see here is just part of her rant. She goes on to talk about Bill Gates, 5G and 6 foot social distancing:
Ah, makes sense. Thanks.Holman wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:06 amHe once said that limiting population growth would be important to the future health of the planet and society, therefore any vaccine project he funds is actually an attempt to wipe out much of the human race, leaving Bill Gates and his friends as overlords.
Also, Bill Gates has something to do with computers, so any vaccine project he funds will also include the insertion of a microchip for, I dunno, mind-control or some shit.
Mortoned
I've been reading that QAnon has really taken off among "influencers" on TikTok, which means its getting millions of views from kids and young adults.YellowKing wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:09 am
The scary part is that these QAnon fucktards are slowly starting to infiltrate government by running for office and winning elections.
Isn't one of the central tenents of QAnon that one day Trump will expose the deep state and prosecute them all? I don't know that if/when Trump loses the election saying "WHERE IS YOUR GOD NOW?" will dissipate QAnon or only make it stronger. Is there evidence for this in doomsday cults when the doomsday date has come and gone?Holman wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:27 amI've been reading that QAnon has really taken off among "influencers" on TikTok, which means its getting millions of views from kids and young adults.YellowKing wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:09 am
The scary part is that these QAnon fucktards are slowly starting to infiltrate government by running for office and winning elections.
We need to treat it like a cult.
They'll claim that the election was rigged and call Trump a political martyr. Then Trump will be John the Baptist to their next political savior.raydude wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:48 amIsn't one of the central tenents of QAnon that one day Trump will expose the deep state and prosecute them all? I don't know that if/when Trump loses the election saying "WHERE IS YOUR GOD NOW?" will dissipate QAnon or only make it stronger. Is there evidence for this in doomsday cults when the doomsday date has come and gone?Holman wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:27 amI've been reading that QAnon has really taken off among "influencers" on TikTok, which means its getting millions of views from kids and young adults.YellowKing wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:09 am
The scary part is that these QAnon fucktards are slowly starting to infiltrate government by running for office and winning elections.
We need to treat it like a cult.
I listen to a LOT of podcasts about cults, read books about cults, and watch cult documentaries. I love cult stuff.raydude wrote:Is there evidence for this in doomsday cults when the doomsday date has come and gone?
Cheers!Enough wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 2:39 amActually already do that one, heh.geezer wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:48 pmYou mean the equipment itself? Check out a section 179 deduction.Enough wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 6:00 pmWow, I wonder if I could deduct photography trip expenses like new gear?LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 4:58 pm Don't think it will pass but if it does, I'll be driving to Wisconsin or Indiana to get new fishing gear to offset taxes. America!![]()
It's the old Bilderberg conspiracy thing. That the rich want to reduce the population by up to 2/3s to have their own private Playground Earth. Before Gates it was Buffett, the Queen of England/reptilians, W Bush, you name it.stessier wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:13 amAh, makes sense. Thanks.Holman wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:06 amHe once said that limiting population growth would be important to the future health of the planet and society, therefore any vaccine project he funds is actually an attempt to wipe out much of the human race, leaving Bill Gates and his friends as overlords.
Also, Bill Gates has something to do with computers, so any vaccine project he funds will also include the insertion of a microchip for, I dunno, mind-control or some shit.
LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 11:35 amIt's the old Bilderberg conspiracy thing. That the rich want to reduce the population by up to 2/3s to have their own private Playground Earth. Before Gates it was Buffett, the Queen of England/reptilians, W Bush, you name it.stessier wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:13 amAh, makes sense. Thanks.Holman wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:06 amHe once said that limiting population growth would be important to the future health of the planet and society, therefore any vaccine project he funds is actually an attempt to wipe out much of the human race, leaving Bill Gates and his friends as overlords.
Also, Bill Gates has something to do with computers, so any vaccine project he funds will also include the insertion of a microchip for, I dunno, mind-control or some shit.
stessier wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:13 amAh, makes sense. Thanks.Holman wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:06 amHe once said that limiting population growth would be important to the future health of the planet and society, therefore any vaccine project he funds is actually an attempt to wipe out much of the human race, leaving Bill Gates and his friends as overlords.
Also, Bill Gates has something to do with computers, so any vaccine project he funds will also include the insertion of a microchip for, I dunno, mind-control or some shit.
This contact tracing thing sounds important.For the clusters that have popped up, Lautenbach says the state has been using contact tracing to learn more about how they're contributing to the spread of the virus. For instance, it found that 14 cases were associated with a party of 100 to 150 people in early June. Subsequently, 15 more cases were associated with the original 14.
"So that one event spread to 29 people and 31 related employers," Lautenbach says. "Our challenge is to continue to trace as it moves through families, as it moves through workplaces and as it moves through social events as well."
But protests just aren't spreading the disease in the same way, Lautenbach says.
"We're finding that the social events and gatherings, these parties where people aren't wearing masks, are our primary source of infection," Lautenbach says. "And then the secondary source of infection is workplace settings. There were 31 related employers just associated with that one party because of the number of people that brought that to their workplace. So for us, for a community our size, that's a pretty massive spread."
After 15 years of pulling my hair out trying to find a way to escape this tiny redneck town (population under 4k, with the next largest town - at 5k - 20 miles away), for once I'm happy to just stay put. This is the place to be.
Yeah, but also it seems like the risk increase is exponential between those. Like, it's not like there's a 10% risk for outdoors with mask then 30% for outdoors no mask then 50% for indoor mask and then 70% for indoors no mask. Rather, it's more like 10% --> 20% --> 40% --> 90%.Smoove_B wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 2:15 pm Correct. The recommendations now are based on the observational studies that have been conducted. Outdoors, wearing a mask - lower risk. Outdoors, no masks, slightly higher risk. Indoors, wearing a mask - higher risk. Indoors no masks - highest risk.
Again, in all cases better to be outside than in. This is why activities that revolve around being inside (movie theater, classroom, office work, indoor dining, etc...) are problematic.
Do you know of any models that have been created to estimate it?Smoove_B wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 2:34 pm Yes, unofficially. We don't know the exact numbers (and what could be impacting them - humidity, circulated air, volume of talking, etc...) but by all accounts the risk dramatically increases for people being inside and not wearing a mask.
However even this is still heavily qualified:Transmission of viruses was lower with physical distancing of 1 m or more, compared with a distance of less than 1 m (n=10 736, pooled adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0·18, 95% CI 0·09 to 0·38; risk difference [RD] −10·2%, 95% CI −11·5 to −7·5; moderate certainty); protection was increased as distance was lengthened (change in relative risk [RR] 2·02 per m; pinteraction=0·041; moderate certainty). Face mask use could result in a large reduction in risk of infection (n=2647; aOR 0·15, 95% CI 0·07 to 0·34, RD −14·3%, −15·9 to −10·7; low certainty), with stronger associations with N95 or similar respirators compared with disposable surgical masks or similar (eg, reusable 12–16-layer cotton masks; pinteraction=0·090; posterior probability >95%, low certainty). Eye protection also was associated with less infection (n=3713; aOR 0·22, 95% CI 0·12 to 0·39, RD −10·6%, 95% CI −12·5 to −7·7; low certainty). Unadjusted studies and subgroup and sensitivity analyses showed similar findings.
I'm not aware yet of any studies (it feels too early) that have simply crafted experimental conditions to definitively model risk. Everything is being done retroactively through observational studies.The primary limitation of our study is that all studies were non-randomised, not always fully adjusted, and might suffer from recall and measurement bias (eg, direct contact in some studies might not be measuring near distance). However, unadjusted, adjusted, frequentist, and Bayesian meta-analyses all supported the main findings, and large or very large effects were recorded. Nevertheless, we are cautious not to be overly certain in the precise quantitative estimates of effects, although the qualitative effect and direction is probably of high certainty. Many studies did not provide information on precise distances, and direct contact was equated to 0 m distance; none of the eligible studies quantitatively evaluated whether distances of more than 2 m were more effective, although our meta-regression provides potential predictions for estimates of risk. Few studies assessed the effect of interventions in non-health-care settings, and they primarily evaluated mask use in households or contacts of cases, although beneficial associations were seen across settings. Furthermore, most evidence was from studies that reported on SARS and MERS (n=6674 patients with COVID-19, of 25 697 total), but data from these previous epidemics provide the most direct information for COVID-19 currently. We did not specifically assess the effect of duration of exposure on risk for transmission, although whether or not this variable was judged a risk factor considerably varied across studies, from any duration to a minimum of 1 h. Because of inconsistent reporting, information is limited about whether aerosol-generating procedures were in place in studies using respirators, and whether masks worn by infected patients might alter the effectiveness of each intervention, although the stronger association with N95 or similar respirators over other masks persisted when adjusting for studies reporting aerosol-generating medical procedures. These factors might account for some of the residual statistical heterogeneity seen for some outcomes, albeit I2 is commonly inflated in meta-analyses of observational data,21, 22 and nevertheless the effects seen were large and probably clinically important in all adjusted studies.
During contact tracing interviews, Cabo San Lucas travelers reported sharing housing in both Mexico and upon return to Austin. The proximity created by this shared housing likely contributed to transmission through ongoing exposure and reexposure to SARS-CoV-2. This pattern of social interaction, in which residents gather frequently to socialize and share facilities, is common among many college-aged persons and might lead to propagated spread, similar to the continued person-to-person transmission observed in long-term care facilities (5). The prevalence of shared housing and prolonged exposure experienced by the college-aged Cabo San Lucas travelers highlights the importance of universities and schools considering how to align students’ living arrangements with CDC recommendations for living in shared housing†† as they plan to reopen.
Family gatherings and celebrations among friends are causing infection rates to climb quicker than expected, giving the disease fertile territory to spread exponentially in homes and workplaces.
...
The scenario is playing out across the state. In Santa Cruz County, 50 new cases stemmed from one infected individual who attended a Mother’s Day gathering. In Imperial County, officials fear the toll of last weekend’s Father’s Day after seeing increases tied to Easter, Memorial Day and graduation get-togethers.
...
Counties across the state are toppling records and, overall, California recorded a single-day high of 7,149 new COVID cases Tuesday. Statewide, cases are also climbing over time, with a 40% jump in the average number of daily cases over the past 14 days compared with the two previous weeks. Hospitalizations were up 29%, and the number of people requiring intensive care grew 18%.
State and county stay-at-home orders bought California valuable time to slow the spread of the novel coronavirus and prepare its health care system to handle a surge in sick patients. But Gov. Gavin Newsom, who issued the country’s first statewide stay-at-home order, has allowed counties to reopen at a much faster pace than originally planned.
Since Newsom unveiled his fast-tracked reopening plan May 8, the death toll has soared by nearly 3,000, bringing total deaths to 5,632 as of Tuesday.
Of California’s 58 counties, 54 have largely reopened. State public health authorities are monitoring nearly a dozen of them even as people throng to bars and restaurants. Crowds are flocking to shopping malls, movie theaters are open, and hair salons and tattoo shops are booking appointments again. Families are gathering for holiday celebrations and friends are reconnecting after months apart.
https://twitter.com/KHCourage/status/12 ... 0231836672
Just got some sage and succinct advice from a clinical epidemiologist for a coronavirus story I'm reporting:
"Bars – don’t go into them"
That's my county, and where my GOP state rep is trying to undermine Inslee's contact tracing proposal and his masks required order. Our number of cases has been pretty low, we aren't getting hammered like Yakima on the other side of the Cascades, which is bascially the cultural divide in the state.Smoove_B wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 1:53 pm Parties, not protests are causing spread:
This contact tracing thing sounds important.For the clusters that have popped up, Lautenbach says the state has been using contact tracing to learn more about how they're contributing to the spread of the virus. For instance, it found that 14 cases were associated with a party of 100 to 150 people in early June. Subsequently, 15 more cases were associated with the original 14.
"So that one event spread to 29 people and 31 related employers," Lautenbach says. "Our challenge is to continue to trace as it moves through families, as it moves through workplaces and as it moves through social events as well."
But protests just aren't spreading the disease in the same way, Lautenbach says.
"We're finding that the social events and gatherings, these parties where people aren't wearing masks, are our primary source of infection," Lautenbach says. "And then the secondary source of infection is workplace settings. There were 31 related employers just associated with that one party because of the number of people that brought that to their workplace. So for us, for a community our size, that's a pretty massive spread."
I was at a (virtual) Continuing Legal Education seminar this afternoon covering representation issues with elder LGBTQ+ individuals (so not exactly a haven for the MAGA crowd). During one of the breakout sessions, two of the people talked about how they were looking forward to dining out this weekend. On the one hand I understand the desire to get out there, and I understand that these restaurants and their employees need the money. On the other hand, I'll be making dinner at home this weekend.LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 4:20 pm Hearing of increased infections (of staff) at area hospitals. It's been down since the peak times but the last few days picking up in bunches. Units are having 2-3 infected and it may cause some capacity issues. Contact tracing has been rapid and intense so there's that.
Was on a call with someone who lives in the suburbs. She said that everyone out there made reservations Monday or Tuesday this week to get to into restaurants this weekend. Everything is booked by now.
Going to be yet another interesting weekend.
Unfortunately they aren't full of New Yorkers.
Ok, well I guess as long as it's below the 1:1 level we can continue to just march forward with all our gatherings and openings.The coronavirus transmission rate has increased in 16 of New Jersey’s 21 counties over the past week - with six counties rising at least 50% - as the state moves forward with Stage 2 of the reopening plan, but the overall rate remains below the key 1-to-1 mark used to track the spread of the outbreak, officials said Thursday.
Gov. Phil Murphy said the latest transmission rate - meaning the number of new cases from each infection - has increased to .88, up from .70 earlier this month.
Everything is fine. Consume.The rate of transmission was .81 on Tuesday and .86 Wednesday. Both of those are still far lower than the rate of 5.31 in New Jersey in March when Murphy issued a stay-at-home order and sweeping closures to slow the spread of the virus.
Public health is best communicated through stories. These are exactly the kinds of stories we need to keep track of and share because this could be anyone's family.That crisis, all began on May 30 when just a single relative, unknowingly infected with COVID-19, interacted with seven family members at a surprise birthday party who later tested positive.
Now, Ron Barbosa is keeping track of 18 people in his family who have tested positive for COVID-19.
Per Barbosa, those seven family members contracted and spread the virus to 10 other relatives either at the party or through other family interactions.
...
Even though everyone did their best to stay socially distant, Barbosa said it likely wasn't enough as he suspects the party may have been a catalyst for the spread though there's no way to truly know.
"It wasn't that long. It was only a couple of hours," Barbosa, a volunteer EMT said. "But during that brief time, somehow the other 18 family members are now infected with COVID."
Barbosa, who is also married to a doctor, said he and his wife refused to go to the party due to safety reasons.
However, it was a party that by current state health standards appeared harmless considering it was just family. A total of 25 people attended, Barbosa said, and not all of them arrived at the same time or stayed for the same duration.
Wow.Zaxxon wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 11:52 pm Tangentially related...
https://twitter.com/wendellpotter/statu ... 01216?s=19