Political Randomness

PLW · Post by **PLW** » Mon Jun 19, 2017 11:42 am

Seriously.. that's got to be pretty much every American voter.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Mon Jun 19, 2017 11:43 am

(10/19/2016) The 2016 campaign may have reached dispiriting new lows, but voter registration in America has soared to new heights as 200 million people are now registered to vote for the first time in U.S. history.
...
There is no current national database of voter registration because each state independently runs its own election. But TargetSmart, a Democratic political data firm, told POLITICO that the country passed the 200 million threshold in recent days as North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada and New York reported new voter numbers.

Paingod · Post by **Paingod** » Mon Jun 19, 2017 1:19 pm

Isgrimnur wrote:
Defiant wrote:GOP Data Firm Accidentally Leaks Personal Details of Nearly 200 Million American Voters
They don't get much bigger.

Article wrote:Political data gathered on more than 198 million US citizens was exposed this month after a marketing firm contracted by the Republican National Committee stored internal documents on a publicly accessible Amazon server.

The data leak contains a wealth of personal information on roughly 61 percent of the US population. Along with home addresses, birthdates, and phone numbers, the records include advanced sentiment analyses used by political groups to predict where individual voters fall on hot-button issues such as gun ownership, stem cell research, and the right to abortion, as well as suspected religious affiliation and ethnicity. The data was amassed from a variety of sources—from the banned subreddit r/fatpeoplehate to American Crossroads, the super PAC co-founded by former White House strategist Karl Rove.

Everything about you except your SSN - including details you might consider more personal than your SSN.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Mon Jun 19, 2017 1:41 pm

Pride Parade organizers ask law enforcement not to march in uniform

The Multnomah County Sheriff’s Office will not be marching as an organization during this weekend’s Portland Pride Parade, following a request from organizers that they not march in uniform.

The request from Pride Northwest came in a letter from Executive Director Debra Porta. Porta said while the nonprofit recognizes the progress made for LGTBQ people to serve in law enforcement, there are people within the LGBTQ community who don’t’ feel comfortable with a law enforcement presence.

Can't say I agree with this decision. Pride is about being true to who you are, and representing the entire LGBT community, including those in the LGBT community that are part of law enforcement. They shouldn't be ashamed of that.

tjg_marantz · Post by **tjg_marantz** » Mon Jun 19, 2017 3:10 pm

It's ok to say they're a bunch of idiots.

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Mon Jun 19, 2017 3:16 pm

Defiant wrote:Pride Parade organizers ask law enforcement not to march in uniform

The Multnomah County Sheriff’s Office will not be marching as an organization during this weekend’s Portland Pride Parade, following a request from organizers that they not march in uniform.

The request from Pride Northwest came in a letter from Executive Director Debra Porta. Porta said while the nonprofit recognizes the progress made for LGTBQ people to serve in law enforcement, there are people within the LGBTQ community who don’t’ feel comfortable with a law enforcement presence.
Can't say I agree with this decision. Pride is about being true to who you are, and representing the entire LGBT community, including those in the LGBT community that are part of law enforcement. They shouldn't be ashamed of that.

That is strange to me. I won't go so far as to point and scream hypocrisy but it does raise an eyebrow and possibly even warrant a barely perceptible headshake of confused disapproval.

Kurth · Post by **Kurth** » Mon Jun 19, 2017 5:02 pm

Defiant wrote:Pride Parade organizers ask law enforcement not to march in uniform

The Multnomah County Sheriff’s Office will not be marching as an organization during this weekend’s Portland Pride Parade, following a request from organizers that they not march in uniform.

The request from Pride Northwest came in a letter from Executive Director Debra Porta. Porta said while the nonprofit recognizes the progress made for LGTBQ people to serve in law enforcement, there are people within the LGBTQ community who don’t’ feel comfortable with a law enforcement presence.
Can't say I agree with this decision. Pride is about being true to who you are, and representing the entire LGBT community, including those in the LGBT community that are part of law enforcement. They shouldn't be ashamed of that.

There's only one group here that should be ashamed, and it's not the members of law enforcement who were asked not to march in uniform.

The longer I live out here (going on 2 years now), the more I'm disheartened by the level of idiocy within the groups whose interests I have long been aligned with.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:12 pm

Meanwhile.... Redesigned pride flag recognizes LGBT people of color

Now Hikes, a black queer woman, is excited about a new gay-rights symbol: a pride flag with additional black and brown stripes above the rest of the rainbow. The stripes represent LGBT individuals of color, a group that can often be overlooked within the overall LGBT umbrella.

The flag was unveiled at a recent Pride Month kick-off event in Philadelphia as part of a new campaign, More Color More Pride, which aims to recognize nonwhite LGBT communities as part of the broader pride movement, starting with the most visible and widely-recognized symbol of the LGBT community.

Now, I wouldn't care so much if this were some individuals using this as a variation of the flag in order to draw attention to a problem (although if they're going to suddenly use the colors to represent skin colors, can we remove orange, please?), although I'd rather a flag focused on that issue. But someone that's just jumped into the job, redesigning a symbol that's been around for decades without any input from the community? Really?

Oh, and then suggesting that anyone that opposes it is racist.

But with the nationwide support came pushback and criticism. Hikes said that the "vast majority" of critics are gay white men, a sector of the LGBT community that doesn't necessarily understand the issues that LGBT people of color might face.
"White people do not know what racism looks like, because that's the definition of racism," Hikes said.

*facepalm*

Blackhawk · Post by **Blackhawk** » Mon Jun 19, 2017 9:00 pm

At least they're still being inclusive of blue people.

Freyland · Post by **Freyland** » Mon Jun 19, 2017 9:13 pm

Really quite a landmark occasion! It shows that the LGBT community has become mainstream enough to have to deal with mainstream stupidity.

Or, for a shorter quotable, "Mainstream stupidity has finally come out of the closet!"

msteelers · Post by **msteelers** » Tue Jun 20, 2017 5:21 am

Paingod wrote:
Isgrimnur wrote:
Defiant wrote:GOP Data Firm Accidentally Leaks Personal Details of Nearly 200 Million American Voters
They don't get much bigger.

Article wrote:Political data gathered on more than 198 million US citizens was exposed this month after a marketing firm contracted by the Republican National Committee stored internal documents on a publicly accessible Amazon server.

The data leak contains a wealth of personal information on roughly 61 percent of the US population. Along with home addresses, birthdates, and phone numbers, the records include advanced sentiment analyses used by political groups to predict where individual voters fall on hot-button issues such as gun ownership, stem cell research, and the right to abortion, as well as suspected religious affiliation and ethnicity. The data was amassed from a variety of sources—from the banned subreddit r/fatpeoplehate to American Crossroads, the super PAC co-founded by former White House strategist Karl Rove.
Everything about you except your SSN - including details you might consider more personal than your SSN.

Anyone else curious to see what their file says about them?

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Tue Jun 20, 2017 7:41 am

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Tue Jun 20, 2017 7:44 am

The technical details here.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:33 am

msteelers wrote:Anyone else curious to see what their file says about them?

That was my first thought too.

msteelers · Post by **msteelers** » Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:36 am

Isgrimnur wrote:The technical details here.

That's really cool/scary.

This reporter was able, after determining his RNC ID, to view his modeled policy preferences and political actions as calculated by TargetPoint. It is a testament both to their talents, and to the real danger of this exposure, that the results were astoundingly accurate.

Paingod · Post by **Paingod** » Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:39 am

Would it be terrible if they simply said that a "district" could not have more than 10 sides on a map? Would it put an end to Gerrymandering? Would it at least slow it down?

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Tue Jun 20, 2017 10:07 am

That's a nice segue to

Eric McGhee, a research fellow at the Public Policy Institute of California, has figured out a new way to think about gerrymandering: in terms of efficiency. With packing and cracking, the goal is to ensure your opponents’ votes are wasted, so they do not contribute to victory. A packed district has—artificially—too many votes for one side. A cracked district, too few. McGhee figured out how to calculate the “efficiency gap” of an election. Go district by district, counting how many votes the winner got above 50 percent—anything higher was a waste. Then count the loser’s votes, because all those went down the tubes. Add up all the waste by party statewide, then take the difference between the two numbers as a percentage of votes cast—that’s the efficiency gap. Yes, other factors could be at work—population change, let’s say. But in general, the bigger the gap, the more gerrymandered the state.

GERRYMANDERING HAS A SOLUTION AFTER ALL. IT'S CALLED MATH

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Jun 20, 2017 10:11 am

I would think there would have to be a math-based way to determine districts. Something like - determine how many people per district. Start at an arbitrary point and add surrounding blocks until you hit that number. Then start a new district, etc.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Tue Jun 20, 2017 10:11 am

Defiant wrote:That's a nice segue to

Eric McGhee, a research fellow at the Public Policy Institute of California, has figured out a new way to think about gerrymandering: in terms of efficiency. With packing and cracking, the goal is to ensure your opponents’ votes are wasted, so they do not contribute to victory. A packed district has—artificially—too many votes for one side. A cracked district, too few. McGhee figured out how to calculate the “efficiency gap” of an election. Go district by district, counting how many votes the winner got above 50 percent—anything higher was a waste. Then count the loser’s votes, because all those went down the tubes. Add up all the waste by party statewide, then take the difference between the two numbers as a percentage of votes cast—that’s the efficiency gap. Yes, other factors could be at work—population change, let’s say. But in general, the bigger the gap, the more gerrymandered the state.
GERRYMANDERING HAS A SOLUTION AFTER ALL. IT'S CALLED MATH

I really really really like this. I should say I really really really like the implied solution of demanding geographies approach equalibrium.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Jun 20, 2017 3:17 pm

Apparently terrible weather is causing big traffic jams today in GA-6.

Ralph-Wiggum · Post by **Ralph-Wiggum** » Tue Jun 20, 2017 3:28 pm

El Guapo wrote:Apparently terrible weather is causing big traffic jams today in GA-6.

The Republicans really know how to pull out all the stops, don't they?

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Jun 20, 2017 3:32 pm

Ralph-Wiggum wrote:
El Guapo wrote:Apparently terrible weather is causing big traffic jams today in GA-6.
The Republicans really know how to pull out all the stops, don't they?

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Tue Jun 20, 2017 4:05 pm

The AHCA will pass irrespective of GA-6 no matter what. It might affect the degree of terribleness. Maybe.

Pyperkub · Post by **Pyperkub** » Tue Jun 20, 2017 4:07 pm

LordMortis wrote:
Defiant wrote:That's a nice segue to

Eric McGhee, a research fellow at the Public Policy Institute of California, has figured out a new way to think about gerrymandering: in terms of efficiency. With packing and cracking, the goal is to ensure your opponents’ votes are wasted, so they do not contribute to victory. A packed district has—artificially—too many votes for one side. A cracked district, too few. McGhee figured out how to calculate the “efficiency gap” of an election. Go district by district, counting how many votes the winner got above 50 percent—anything higher was a waste. Then count the loser’s votes, because all those went down the tubes. Add up all the waste by party statewide, then take the difference between the two numbers as a percentage of votes cast—that’s the efficiency gap. Yes, other factors could be at work—population change, let’s say. But in general, the bigger the gap, the more gerrymandered the state.
GERRYMANDERING HAS A SOLUTION AFTER ALL. IT'S CALLED MATH
I really really really like this. I should say I really really really like the implied solution of demanding geographies approach equalibrium.

So where's the data? Couldn't find a link in the article...

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Jun 20, 2017 4:18 pm

Ralph-Wiggum wrote:
El Guapo wrote:Apparently terrible weather is causing big traffic jams today in GA-6.
The Republicans really know how to pull out all the stops, don't they?

Apparently it's only raining in the heavily democratic part of the district (the northern suburbs of Atlanta) and not in the rest of the district.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Tue Jun 20, 2017 4:35 pm

I'm from Atlanta. If Handel wins, I'm 100% certain people there will say God sent that rain to make it happen.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Jun 20, 2017 4:58 pm

Now Nate Cohn is tweeting that turnout through 3 pm in DeKalb county (heavily democratic) is up from last election, even as early voting is also higher.

I'm just going to see Wonder Woman this evening so I don't wind up reading tea leaves all evening.

AWS260 · Post by **AWS260** » Tue Jun 20, 2017 6:02 pm

Pyperkub wrote:So where's the data? Couldn't find a link in the article...

Here's the study.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Tue Jun 20, 2017 7:01 pm

538's live blog of the special elections in GA and SC

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Tue Jun 20, 2017 7:10 pm

You might remember I wrote to my reps way back urging an independent prosecutor.

The response from Senator Graham:

Thank you for contacting me regarding alleged contacts between Russian intelligence officers and associates of President Trump. On May 17, 2017, former FBI Director Robert Mueller was appointed as special counsel to oversee the Justice Department's investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 election.

I look forward to working with Special Counsel Mueller to determine how Congress can continue its examination of Russia's actions during the election without compromising the Justice Department's ongoing criminal investigation. The Russians have been trying to break the backbone of democracies all over the world, and although they did not change the outcome, in my view, they clearly interfered in the 2016 election. As the Senate considers this issue, I will keep you comments in mind.

As your United States Senator, my primary job is to understand and represent the interests of all South Carolinians. The opportunity to hear from you about the issues confronting our nation is not only essential to representative democracy, but allows me to better serve the people of South Carolina. We will not see eye-to-eye on every issue; however, I promise to always give your concerns the consideration they deserve.
I encourage you to visit my website — — as it will have information on the most recent activities before the U.S. Senate. You can also sign up for our e-mail newsletter, Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube pages which will provide the latest information and updates on the major issues facing our state and our nation.
Thank you again for contacting me. I truly appreciate the opportunity to hear from you and am honored to have the opportunity to represent your interests in the U.S. Senate.
Sincerely,

Lindsey O. Graham
United States Senator

I got ones from my other reps, but can't find them at the moment. I will post them if I find them. I remember not being impressed with the responses at the time.

Edit: Found the one from Tim Scott

Thank you for contacting me to share your thoughts on former FBI Director James Comey’s dismissal by President Trump. I value your opinion on this important issue and firmly believe that I cannot perform my responsibilities efficiently without having the benefit of the views of my constituents. I thank you for the opportunity to respond.

As head of the executive branch, it is entirely constitutional for President Trump to exercise his discretion regarding who leads executive branch departments. It must be remembered that every employee of the executive branch works for the president. As with previous administrations, there will continue to be no tolerance for excessive over-reach by the executive branch. I will continue to push for accountability and transparency at all levels of government.

I thank former Director Comey for his work and service to our nation. Leading the bureau responsible for upholding our nation’s laws and integrity is no simple task. As per the powers vested in the Senate by Article Two, Section Two of the constitution, my role in the Senate will be that of appropriate consideration and review of the new FBI Director nominee. As such, I look forward to focusing on reviewing President Trump’s pick for FBI Director.

I do not believe that the Director’s dismissal will affect how the FBI carries out its investigations, and I have full confidence in the brave men and women serving our nation every day at the FBI. Multiple federal entities are currently and independently conducting Russia investigations, including the Senate Intelligence Committee. Chairman Burr and Ranking Member Warner have repeatedly demonstrated they are working together to uncover all of the facts, and I have no reason to believe they will not.

I look forward to the Senate Intelligence Committee’s report, and to reviewing that and any findings made by the FBI at the conclusion of their investigations.

Again, thank you for sharing your perspective with me; I hope that you will continue to do so in the future. If I can ever be of assistance, please do not hesitate to contact me or a member of my staff.
For more information, please visit my website at and subscribe to my monthly e-newsletter. I also encourage you to follow me on Facebook: and Twitter: for daily updates.
Sincerely,

Tim Scott
United States Senator

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:42 pm

The results so far in SC5 are a lot closer than expected. With 44% of the precincts reporting, the Democrat is actually maintaining the slimmest of leads. Polls showed him behind by, I think, 13%? And turnout is way down. And, of course, who knows what the remaining 56% will bring in, but while I think he will lose, it will be a lot closer than anyone expected.

Rip · Post by **Rip** » Tue Jun 20, 2017 9:15 pm

Norman wins by 2.5 points or so.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Tue Jun 20, 2017 9:15 pm

Rip · Post by **Rip** » Tue Jun 20, 2017 9:18 pm

SC looks to be a lot closer than GA.

Handel is beginning to walk away with it.

hepcat · Post by **hepcat** » Tue Jun 20, 2017 9:24 pm

You should probably stop using the term "walking away with it". You obviously don't know what it means.

Rip · Post by **Rip** » Tue Jun 20, 2017 9:27 pm

hepcat wrote:You should probably stop using the term "walking away with it". You obviously don't know what it means.

As close as it was billed to be I would say walking away. With 50% in Handel has a 5 point lead. They should call it any moment.

hepcat · Post by **hepcat** » Tue Jun 20, 2017 9:33 pm

48.4 to 51.6 so far in a GOP stronghold is still a bad sign for Republicans. But don't worry, Trump will back you up that it was a yuuuge victory in a tweet later on tonight. Then he'll say something to further weaken NATO so his boss will give him a Trumpy Snack.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Tue Jun 20, 2017 9:48 pm

I suppose, in the long run, we'll be able to thank Karen Handel for giving us single-payer healthcare.

hepcat · Post by **hepcat** » Tue Jun 20, 2017 11:04 pm

and yup, the idiot in the WH is tweeting about Handel's "huge" win.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Jun 20, 2017 11:25 pm

stessier wrote:You might remember I wrote to my reps way back urging an independent prosecutor.

Thanks for doing that, by the way. If you can find the time, you should call and/or write Graham (and I guess Scott too, though he's probably a lost cause) about opposing the AHCA.