Octopus Overlords

Posted: **Fri Aug 09, 2024 3:46 pm**

El Guapo wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 3:29 pm Honestly I suspect that a big part of it is that the last 8 years have just been completely exhausting, and people are dying for something new. And while Harris is the sitting VP, her profile the past few years has been pretty low, and she's the closest thing to a fresh face.

Sounds right to me. Nikki Haley said that the first party that replaces its 80-year-old candidate will win the election. Looks like she was right (fingers crossed). A lot of voters resented having to choose between insane and senile.

Posted: **Fri Aug 09, 2024 3:49 pm**

It also didn't help that the media was just pounding Biden's age and capacity completely out of proportion to both his ability and coverage of similar issues with Trump. People who don't think they are affected by such coverage often times really are, even if they can't pinpoint directly to that issue. It gets into the general atmosphere.

Posted: **Fri Aug 09, 2024 4:33 pm**

El Guapo wrote:Honestly I suspect that a big part of it is that the last 8 years have just been completely exhausting, and people are dying for something new. And while Harris is the sitting VP, her profile the past few years has been pretty low, and she's the closest thing to a fresh face.

This. And we haven't seen her gender or race be the issue many people said would be a dealbreaker. That's because most people aren't bigoted assholes. She also represents youth (relatively), which we haven't seen in the White House in over a decade.

Posted: **Fri Aug 09, 2024 4:44 pm**

_never_ underestimate the population's capacity for novelty-seeking

Posted: **Fri Aug 09, 2024 5:11 pm**

YellowKing wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 4:33 pm
El Guapo wrote:Honestly I suspect that a big part of it is that the last 8 years have just been completely exhausting, and people are dying for something new. And while Harris is the sitting VP, her profile the past few years has been pretty low, and she's the closest thing to a fresh face.
This. And we haven't seen her gender or race be the issue many people said would be a dealbreaker. That's because most people aren't bigoted assholes. She also represents youth (relatively), which we haven't seen in the White House in over a decade.

I get it, for the most part. But it's just frustratingly illogical also.

Posted: **Fri Aug 09, 2024 5:33 pm**

El Guapo wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 3:28 pm But apparently there were a lot of people sitting around like, "ehhhh, Biden's pretty old, so I better vote for the crazy fascist instead."

I don't think the people that have been energized by the new ticket were going to vote for Trump, at all. I just think with "new" and "not the same old white guys" situation, it's something people can actually get inspired by and a little excited even. I'm personally not inspired or excited, but I AM in a much better mental space about our changes to defeat Trump, and THAT excites the hell out of me, as I think it does a shit ton of people out there.

Posted: **Fri Aug 09, 2024 5:37 pm**

El Guapo wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 3:28 pm Like I'm not shocked that Harris is doing better. But *this* much better? But apparently there were a lot of people sitting around like, "ehhhh, Biden's pretty old, so I better vote for the crazy fascist instead."

I'm guessing that Harris's gains are coming from people who otherwise wouldn't be voting at all, not from people abandoning Trump.

The great benefit of a positive, energized campaign is that it makes people believe that politics might be something they want to participate in after all. This is especially true of younger voters, many of whom don't vote at all until they're pushing 30.

It's novelty, yes, but it's also breaking through many people's assumption that "politics is too complicated or specialized or boring for me to care about."

Posted: **Fri Aug 09, 2024 5:43 pm**

I hope Republicans who become disenchanted with Trump but won’t vote Harris will stay home in disgust to show their displeasure…

Posted: **Fri Aug 09, 2024 5:46 pm**

I think there is now enthusiasm from more young people. My daughter (28) was dreading about voting for Biden. He did not connect with him at all. She was going to vote for him to vote against Trump but her heart wasn’t in it. She is excited by Harris and Walz and it’s exciting for me to see her excited.

I know there are many young people like her that have not been excited about politics before. Hopefully enough of them actually vote.

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Posted: **Fri Aug 09, 2024 5:46 pm**

Not voting at all is pretty much a vote for Trump, isn't it? Especially if they were never going to vote for Trump.

Posted: **Fri Aug 09, 2024 5:49 pm**

With regard to that, I finally broke a wall down on my father. He was started on praising Vance and I was like "oh so you're a fan of Peter Thiel and "the founders" who tanked the regional banks and cost you 10s of thousands of dollars while they took all their money and yours too. That very real demonstration of loss and not just rhetoric and rambling with a vague "better economy" was the first political lightbulb to go off in that head in I don't know how long.

Posted: **Fri Aug 09, 2024 7:18 pm**

Alefroth wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 5:46 pm Not voting at all is pretty much a vote for Trump, isn't it? Especially if they were never going to vote for Trump.

I'm talking about Republicans who voted for Trump in previous elections deciding that Trump isn't the solution but won't vote Democratic either.

Posted: **Fri Aug 09, 2024 7:57 pm**

There are former Trump voters flipping for Harris, no doubt about it. It's not just fence sitters and no-voters.

From a psychology standpoint, I think there are two other things that could be in play. One, people like to back a winner, and Harris has all the momentum right now. Two, I think people want to be part of something historic. Even if they're not consciously thinking about it, some of the enthusiasm could be from the fact that they are helping make history by electing the first female US President.

Posted: **Fri Aug 09, 2024 7:59 pm**

YellowKing wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 7:57 pm There are former Trump voters flipping for Harris, no doubt about it. It's not just fence sitters and no-voters.

From a psychology standpoint, I think there are two other things that could be in play. One, people like to back a winner, and Harris has all the momentum right now. Two, I think people want to be part of something historic. Even if they're not consciously thinking about it, some of the enthusiasm could be from the fact that they are helping make history by electing the first female US President.

Obviously not representative in the slightest, but my brother's in-laws are a fairly conservative bunch. The other day one of them posted an image of Kamala Harris made up like the Statue of Liberty (followed by a bunch of family members posting disgusted / baffled comments). I don't know whether the poster in question will ultimately vote for Harris, but I still found it quite striking.

Posted: **Fri Aug 09, 2024 8:13 pm**

It doesn't hurt that Trump seems to be imploding right now. I'd always hoped that the stress of campaigning would cause him to teeter over the edge. When he had the momentum early on, he was fine (well, he was his usual self.) Now that he's not in as certain of a place, he seems to be making a lot more blunders.

Posted: **Fri Aug 09, 2024 8:38 pm**

El Guapo wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 7:59 pm
YellowKing wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 7:57 pm There are former Trump voters flipping for Harris, no doubt about it. It's not just fence sitters and no-voters.

From a psychology standpoint, I think there are two other things that could be in play. One, people like to back a winner, and Harris has all the momentum right now. Two, I think people want to be part of something historic. Even if they're not consciously thinking about it, some of the enthusiasm could be from the fact that they are helping make history by electing the first female US President.
Obviously not representative in the slightest, but my brother's in-laws are a fairly conservative bunch. The other day one of them posted an image of Kamala Harris made up like the Statue of Liberty (followed by a bunch of family members posting disgusted / baffled comments). I don't know whether the poster in question will ultimately vote for Harris, but I still found it quite striking.

My asshole coworker is covering his Facebook page with lewd images of Harris. He’s got nothing except misogynistic retorts to attack her. His wife is a friggin’ moron who should be up in arms at his antics, but she’s too goddamn stupid to understand this.

Posted: **Fri Aug 09, 2024 8:39 pm**

Dramatist wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 5:46 pm I think there is now enthusiasm from more young people. My daughter (28) was dreading about voting for Biden. He did not connect with him at all. She was going to vote for him to vote against Trump but her heart wasn’t in it. She is excited by Harris and Walz and it’s exciting for me to see her excited.

I know there are many young people like her that have not been excited about politics before. Hopefully enough of them actually vote.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I can certainly understand how first-time voters wouldn't feel very inspired by the prospect of voting for one of two ancient geezers who are older than their grandparents. Trump is older than Bill Clinton, and their parents were probably in high school or college during his administration.

Posted: **Fri Aug 09, 2024 9:06 pm**

Holman wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 5:37 pm
El Guapo wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 3:28 pm Like I'm not shocked that Harris is doing better. But *this* much better? But apparently there were a lot of people sitting around like, "ehhhh, Biden's pretty old, so I better vote for the crazy fascist instead."
I'm guessing that Harris's gains are coming from people who otherwise wouldn't be voting at all, not from people abandoning Trump.

Entirely this - Every single word out of every single person under 25 says as much.

how is that lost on people?

Posted: **Fri Aug 09, 2024 9:17 pm**

Alefroth wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 5:46 pm Not voting at all is pretty much a vote for Trump, isn't it? Especially if they were never going to vote for Trump.

(not speaking directly to you, but about myself and all of us)

I think people underestimate just how much the younger generation has lost almost all faith in our system. The idea of Harris as President seems to have given them a pinch back.

Posted: **Fri Aug 09, 2024 9:18 pm**

Amazing crowd in AZ:

https://twitter.com/MrJonCryer/status/1 ... 6658365826

Posted: **Fri Aug 09, 2024 9:19 pm**

Dramatist wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 5:46 pm I think there is now enthusiasm from more young people. My daughter (28) was dreading about voting for Biden. He did not connect with him at all. She was going to vote for him to vote against Trump but her heart wasn’t in it. She is excited by Harris and Walz and it’s exciting for me to see her excited.

I know there are many young people like her that have not been excited about politics before. Hopefully enough of them actually vote.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Where I live the young as so crushed by college debt or cost of living they have to work while the polls are open.

In the rest of the country we have areas where people are having their registrations challenged by nutters. They talk about securing voting booths and protecting them using our open carry laws. The implication is anyone on their list who tries to vote they’ll try to intimidate.

These nutters say if Trump loses its civil war. They say they won’t tolerate another Catholic Soros backed Irishman or immigrant to be president again. (These people literally believe it was good JfK was assassinated because he was catholic.)

A lot of people don’t care who is president or what our political system is as long as they can still work to make money for their next rent payment. They won’t protest if trump tries to seize power - which is just the way trump wants it.

Posted: **Fri Aug 09, 2024 9:29 pm**

YellowKing wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 7:57 pm There are former Trump voters flipping for Harris, no doubt about it. It's not just fence sitters and no-voters.

No.
Well, I mean - maybe some odd number exists - but this is not a real thing.

First - to be clear - you are talking about a "Trump voter" who was about to be voting for Trump in this election. Someone who, after Jan 6th - and everything that has happened since then - would have polled as someone would was going to, again, put their vote down for Trump in 2024.

You are trying to tell me that this person has now seen Kamala Harris, and has suddenly freed their mind of the insanity that had compelled their position just one month ago?

I mean, wtf - how would anyone even take any faith in that person's stability to show up on election day?

I will give you that perhaps they are so empty and shallow as to only act on the desire to 'going with the enthusiasm/winner' - but what about everyone around them - how do they defend their rapid swing in positions since they are clearly not people with any actual convictions. Again - how do we put any faith in that type of person (if they exist), if that's what is (even partly) behind this swing in polls?

/shrug - perhaps a massive amount of Trump voters happened to be childless cat ladies, and they are now lost.

Posted: **Fri Aug 09, 2024 9:34 pm**

waitingtoconnect wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 9:19 pm A lot of people don’t care who is president or what our political system is as long as they can still work to make money for their next rent payment. They won’t protest if trump tries to seize power - which is just the way trump wants it.

A lot of people like women to have freedom with their bodies, and beyond that - don't care who is president, etc, etc.

Posted: **Fri Aug 09, 2024 9:37 pm**

The majority care obviously but when say a lot I mean 20-30% of people and that reflects in voter turnout.

But yes of those who care a lot are one issue voters.

One of the talk show Jimmie’s did a bit asking passers by on the street in California if it was time for a female vice president and if it should be a woman of color getting the job…. A lot of people said yes it absolutely was time to elect one…

Posted: **Fri Aug 09, 2024 9:44 pm**

waitingtoconnect wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 9:37 pm The majority care obviously but when say a lot I mean 20-30% of people and that reflects in voter turnout.

I can't follow what group of people you are saying will or won't show up. People who don't care, don't vote, and don't count. I'm saying that some of the people that maybe never voted cause they don't care about any of the bigger and smaller details may still actually want to - since some big single issue stuff has happened.

waitingtoconnect wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 9:37 pm One of the talk show Jimmie’s did a bit asking passers by on the street in California if it was time for a female vice president and if it should be a woman of color getting the job…. A lot of people said yes it absolutely was time to elect one…

Now I know I'm missing your point - cause this isn't a thing I thought you were talking about was leading to.

Posted: **Fri Aug 09, 2024 10:02 pm**

Unagi wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 9:29 pm
YellowKing wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 7:57 pm There are former Trump voters flipping for Harris, no doubt about it. It's not just fence sitters and no-voters.

No.
Well, I mean - maybe some odd number exists - but this is not a real thing.

Three. Three is an odd number.

Posted: **Fri Aug 09, 2024 10:33 pm**

Unagi wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 9:29 pm
YellowKing wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 7:57 pm There are former Trump voters flipping for Harris, no doubt about it. It's not just fence sitters and no-voters.

No.
Well, I mean - maybe some odd number exists - but this is not a real thing.

First - to be clear - you are talking about a "Trump voter" who was about to be voting for Trump in this election. Someone who, after Jan 6th - and everything that has happened since then - would have polled as someone would was going to, again, put their vote down for Trump in 2024.

You are trying to tell me that this person has now seen Kamala Harris, and has suddenly freed their mind of the insanity that had compelled their position just one month ago?

I mean, wtf - how would anyone even take any faith in that person's stability to show up on election day?

I will give you that perhaps they are so empty and shallow as to only act on the desire to 'going with the enthusiasm/winner' - but what about everyone around them - how do they defend their rapid swing in positions since they are clearly not people with any actual convictions. Again - how do we put any faith in that type of person (if they exist), if that's what is (even partly) behind this swing in polls?

/shrug - perhaps a massive amount of Trump voters happened to be childless cat ladies, and they are now lost.

Have you met people? It doesn't really need to make sense. Like I said, it doesn't really make logical sense for Harris to be doing *this* much better than Biden right away, and yet here we are.

Posted: **Fri Aug 09, 2024 10:39 pm**

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/statu ... 5031120187

Good news - Harris is moving ahead (slightly) in the electoral college odds.

Posted: **Fri Aug 09, 2024 11:04 pm**

Unagi wrote:Well, I mean - maybe some odd number exists - but this is not a real thing.

It's absolutely a real thing. I said "former Trump voters" not "die-hard MAGA cultists." People who voted for Trump in 2020 or maybe even in 2016 and 2020 who are fed up with his BS and are switching sides. There are testimonials all over the place.

It's important to note that not all Republicans are MAGA. I'm sure many of them held their nose and voted for Trump in 2020 because they felt it was their only real option. But now that they see the damage the MAGA movement is doing to the party, they are voting for normalcy over chaos even if it doesn't completely align with their political views on the issues. Just last week Harris picked up over two dozen endorsements from Republican politicians and officials.

Posted: **Fri Aug 09, 2024 11:07 pm**

A lot of people like it when you offer them something other than choosing between two old senile men.

Posted: **Fri Aug 09, 2024 11:09 pm**

Biden isn’t senile.

Posted: **Fri Aug 09, 2024 11:13 pm**

hepcat wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 11:09 pm Biden isn’t senile.

I guess that depend on which definition of senile that you use.

Both BIden and Trump had signs of decline due to old age.

Posted: **Fri Aug 09, 2024 11:16 pm**

If I thought you meant it as something other than an insult, i wouldn’t have replied. Although senile is generally seen as an insulting word to use to describe someone.

Posted: **Fri Aug 09, 2024 11:35 pm**

YellowKing wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 11:04 pm People who voted for Trump in 2020 or maybe even in 2016 and 2020 who are fed up with his BS and are switching sides.

This was about people who, 1 month ago were voting for Trump, but now are fed up with his BS?

Posted: **Fri Aug 09, 2024 11:38 pm**

Scraper wrote:I really don't believe that Palin was the reason McCain lost. I have no idea what the poling was when he added her. BUT I do remember people being entirely sick of the GOP in 2007. At the time Bush Jr had gone from an extremely popular war time president to an extremely unpopular known liar and manufacturer of war. Also the economy was a mess and the housing market an even bigger mess thanks to Republican deregulation of the mortgage system. 2008 was a true blue wave and I don't think McCain's VP pick had a whole lot to do with it.

I can’t speak for anyone else, but the selection of Palin as his VP is very specifically why I did not end up voting for him. As much as I liked Obama, in the end my lifelong Republicanness would have won out.

But given his age, it was shocking to me that he could be so irresponsible, putting that goddamn dunce that close to the Presidency.

Posted: **Fri Aug 09, 2024 11:39 pm**

Unagi wrote:This was about people who, 1 month ago were voting for Trump, but now are fed up with his BS?

I said she's pulling in former Trump voters. I don't know where the stipulation came from that they had to be people who were planning on voting for Trump a month ago. Maybe I missed something.

Posted: **Fri Aug 09, 2024 11:51 pm**

I was very pessimistic about this race, and have been shocked at the explosion of enthusiasm for Kamala.

Between that and watching Trump lose steam and get crazier, I do think there’s a legit chance that this gets really bad for Trump.

The hardcore MAGATs aren’t going anywhere, but Independents have a viable candidate that is pitching hope. While an angry and tired old man tries to sell grievance. Hope wins that every time.

That’s what Harris offers that Biden did not. And it appears to be making a substantial difference.

Posted: **Fri Aug 09, 2024 11:52 pm**

Just a side note, I also think that Trump is probably dealing with PTSD, which is keeping his public schedule restricted.

Posted: **Sat Aug 10, 2024 2:31 am**

$iljanus wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 5:43 pm I hope Republicans who become disenchanted with Trump but won’t vote Harris will stay home in disgust to show their displeasure…

We need more people like this guy — Republican Mayor of Mesa Arizona (a very conservative suburb of Phoenix and the 3rd largest city in Arizona, 36th largest in the USA). Speaking at the Arizona Harris/Walz rally where he endorsed Harris.

I do not recognize my party. I have something to say to those of us who are in the middle: You don’t owe a damn thing to that party. You don’t owe anything to a party that is out of touch and hell-bent on taking us backward. And by all means, you owe no loyalty to a candidate who is morally and ethically bankrupt. In the spirit of the great Senator John McCain, please join me in putting country over party and stopping Donald Trump.

Video here:
https://www.threads.net/@acynig/post/C- ... ODJOekAGWg

He’s also got an Op-Ed up on the Arizona Central newspaper here:

https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion ... 583703007/

Posted: **Sat Aug 10, 2024 7:36 am**

Unagi wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 9:29 pm You are trying to tell me that this person has now seen Kamala Harris, and has suddenly freed their mind of the insanity that had compelled their position just one month ago?

Her timing isn't too far off Vance's declaration. He is a crack in MAGA veneered teeth. I am surprised at how reachable some can be when Jan 6th wasn't literally the flag for their opinions.

Now that could change again and I'm not holding out hope, but discussion is suddenly there when it wasn't for the last 7 years.

YellowKing wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 11:04 pm It's important to note that not all Republicans are MAGA. I'm sure many of them held their nose and voted for Trump in 2020 because they felt it was their only real option. But now that they see the damage the MAGA movement is doing to the party, they are voting for normalcy over chaos even if it doesn't completely align with their political views on the issues. Just last week Harris picked up over two dozen endorsements from Republican politicians and officials.

I should maybe amend my thunk from the MAGA veneers to the Trump rose colored spectacled republicans.

Victoria Raverna wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 11:13 pm I guess that depend on which definition of senile that you use.

Both BIden and Trump had signs of decline due to old age.

Losing touch with reality due to old again and decline due to old age are different. I would argue maybe TFG is but Biden is not. It's hard to tell if TFG was always that way. Decline form old age, both of them, definitely but senile has a connotation that doesn't apply to Biden.

Octopus Overlords

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