[WW] Crimson Moon III - Game ends in a Draw?

Silky · Post by **Silky** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 1:47 pm

Mr Bubbles wrote:Lynch Austin Just seems like a lot of the tricks I used to use as a wolf. I feel pretty confident that he's a wolf and that we'll be one step closer to winning.

triggercut · Post by **triggercut** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 1:50 pm

Austin wrote:
triggercut wrote:
Mr Bubbles wrote:Lynch Austin Just seems like a lot of the tricks I used to use as a wolf. I feel pretty confident that he's a wolf and that we'll be one step closer to winning.
Adios, wolfboy.

EDIT: see page 10.
Okay, I had thought so. Carry on and have fun with the mess to come tomorrow when I prove out. Of course then you will know who all three wolves are. USP.

If you really think so why so forlorn? It means the village will win!

Remus:

I'm willing to entertain the thought that you were misguided and whatnot. I'm less than totally sold on you as a wolf.

There's a very small chance that I'm being played by the three wolves. I'm willing to listen to reason.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 1:53 pm

triggercut wrote: I'm willing to listen to reason.

A little late.

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 2:00 pm

triggercut wrote:
Austin wrote:
triggercut wrote:
Mr Bubbles wrote:Lynch Austin Just seems like a lot of the tricks I used to use as a wolf. I feel pretty confident that he's a wolf and that we'll be one step closer to winning.
Adios, wolfboy.

EDIT: see page 10.
Okay, I had thought so. Carry on and have fun with the mess to come tomorrow when I prove out. Of course then you will know who all three wolves are. USP.
If you really think so why so forlorn? It means the village will win!

Remus:

I'm willing to entertain the thought that you were misguided and whatnot. I'm less than totally sold on you as a wolf.

There's a very small chance that I'm being played by the three wolves. I'm willing to listen to reason.

Trig, you're only being played if you believe Austin to be seer and Remus to be his champion protector.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 2:08 pm

Possibly against Unagi

Remus West wrote:It is interesting to note though that a wolf could pretend to be the Priest by giving the "roles" of his partners.

9:58 am

Unagi wrote:I'm the Priest. I've been trying to get this Austin lynch to happen naturally without coming out, but WE can not afford to keep missing on Austin and I know without a doubt that he is faking seer.

How? Well, as the Priest I have gotten a confession from pr0ner (Night 1).
You see, pr0ner has been putting his thumb on the scale at his BUTCHER shop... the few extra coppers have been weighing heavy on his heart, more than their weight in his purse.

Ahh, yes - but clearly I am in league with pr0ner from the beginning, right?

Could you imagine if my second confession was also from pr0ner. That would have sucked. I can see now that it would have also sucked if my second confession came from triggercut. That's is why I am happy to announce that my second confession was actually from Silky (Night 2).
Ahhh Silky. Silky has been using inferior materials on the roof repairs as the Village THATCHER and wonders how long he will get away with it.

10:36 am

Remus West wrote:I do not get the Unagi/pr0ner connection Austin implies.

Looking at the Lassr vote (and he must have been innocent if Unagi is lying), pr0ner and Unagi were voting for Austin who was at 4. Adding Silky's vote would not kill him. Silky put Lassr at 5 then Unagi put him over the edge, killing him. Where they could not railroad one innocent they chose the other.

Possibly for Unagi

Day 1:

Unagi wrote:Leaning Innocent:
Grundbegriff - despite Remus' concerns...
Unagi - (You can replace my name with your name here, should you like)
pr0ner - not affraid to stick with his gut on this, and I think his gut was right.

Remus West wrote:I do not get the Unagi/pr0ner connection Austin implies.

Thats basically it. Problem is I see no reason why a wolf would not put another wolf in his "leaning innocent" pile. He put Silky down so they were still spread apart.

To me the votes on Lassr are the most telling part. I think you have been had triggercut and Bubbles. I will be interested to see what Bubbles makes of all this when he comes back.

Silky · Post by **Silky** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 2:13 pm

I am not going to argue with you Remus only make a small correction. I hope you, Trig, and the rest of the village have a chat so that everyone feels comfortable with the situation and figures out where they stand.

As I noted earlier I was not the 5th vote on Lassr but the 3rd.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 2:16 pm

Silky wrote:I am not going to argue with you Remus only make a small correction. I hope you, Trig, and the rest of the village have a chat so that everyone feels comfortable with the situation and figures out where they stand.

As I noted earlier I was not the 5th vote on Lassr but the 3rd.

I will go recheck that again then. That could be very important.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 2:35 pm

Lassr vote:
1: Austin 7:05 am Mon p.5
2: Remus West 5:46 pm Mon p.6
3: Silky 4:12 pm Tue p.7
4: Newcastle 10:55 pm Tue p.7
5: Mr Bubbles 1:11 pm Wed p.8
6: Unagi 2:14 pm Wed p.8

Not sure where I got that Silky was 5.

It is interesting to me though how quickly the sixth vote fell after we waited so long on the others. Unagi posted #6 in his first post after Bubbles made his vote.

BTW - Coroner - If you know the ID of Lassr and Lassr was a wolf (which I doubt now either way this falls) it means that Unagi can NOT be lying and you can be part of that block with full faith. Same can be said if Austin turns up as wolf.

Recap so it doesn't get lost though Silky was vote 3 not vote 5 on Lassr

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 2:38 pm

Silky wrote:I am not going to argue with you Remus only make a small correction. I hope you, Trig, and the rest of the village have a chat so that everyone feels comfortable with the situation and figures out where they stand.

Thats my biggest issue. I so strongly disagree with the manner in which triggercut came to his conclusions that I am having a hard time setting it aside. Trouble is there is absolutely NO way that he is part of a collusion with the three of you. And NO way he guns for Austin that hard if Austin is a wolf. So as far as I am concerned, if Unagi is telling the truth the voting block is at 4 already since anyone would have to be anti-village to even think of voting triggercut right again.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 2:42 pm

I have right now to my mind:

Definately Innocent:
triggercut
Remus West

People Causing me head ache:
Unagi
pr0ner
Silky
Austin
Grundbegriff - I swear he is behind this somehow.

others:
Newcastle
Mr Bubbles
Zurai

If Austin is a wolf then it becomes much cleaner.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 2:44 pm

Remus West wrote:
If Austin is a wolf then it becomes much cleaner.

Sorry to disappoint.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 2:46 pm

Austin wrote:
Remus West wrote:
If Austin is a wolf then it becomes much cleaner.
Sorry to disappoint.

Actually, if you are not a wolf then it becomes crystal clear so that works too. Its finding out if you are a wolf or not that is the problem.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 2:47 pm

BTW, all specials need to come forward TOMORROW. That will let us know who has possibly died so we know what type of information we can hope to get in the future.

Silky · Post by **Silky** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 2:51 pm

It is fairly obvious what the implications are if Austin is a non-wolf. I don't mean a wolf coroner's assessment but an actual down to earth real coroner. I am trying to wrap my head around that leg of the plan. I am curious about this though Remus. You said that if Austin is a wolf it gets much clearer. Who would be your other two best candidates for wolves?

Unagi is the priest. This much I am certain and by proxy pr0ner is an innocent villager as well. BUT... Unagi screwed up in one regard. I urge each member of the village to check their roofs for the quality workmanship, love, and care that went into all that thatching. I know I haven't heard anyone complaining about rain on their heads or the like. I do think pr0ner has shorted me a few times at the butchers stand however... hmmmm

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 2:56 pm

Silky wrote:It is fairly obvious what the implications are if Austin is a non-wolf. I don't mean a wolf coroner's assessment but an actual down to earth real coroner. I am trying to wrap my head around that leg of the plan. I am curious about this though Remus. You said that if Austin is a wolf it gets much clearer. Who would be your other two best candidates for wolves?

Doesn't matter who the other two are. If Austin is a wolf then we have

Innocents:
Silky
pr0ner
Unagi
triggercut
Remus West

Unknowns:
Newcastle
Mr Bubbles
Zurai

They kill 1 we are at 4-3 knowns-unknowns. We can not lose. Of course, that is my perspective and nobody else is going to share it. I would say the two most likely though are Bubbles and Zurai as a more direct answer to your question.

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 3:04 pm

Remus West wrote:
Silky wrote:It is fairly obvious what the implications are if Austin is a non-wolf. I don't mean a wolf coroner's assessment but an actual down to earth real coroner. I am trying to wrap my head around that leg of the plan. I am curious about this though Remus. You said that if Austin is a wolf it gets much clearer. Who would be your other two best candidates for wolves?
Doesn't matter who the other two are. If Austin is a wolf then we have

Innocents:
Silky
pr0ner
Unagi
triggercut
Remus West

Unknowns:
Newcastle
Mr Bubbles
Zurai

They kill 1 we are at 4-3 knowns-unknowns. We can not lose. Of course, that is my perspective and nobody else is going to share it. I would say the two most likely though are Bubbles and Zurai as a more direct answer to your question.

Hillarious. Nice try.

triggercut · Post by **triggercut** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 3:18 pm

Yeah, we'll hang Austin, and then we need to give Remus a fair shake, but he's almost definitely #2. (Dude, you should've cut and run on Austin a while back.) At that point, we need to assess Zurai vs. Newcastle.

Village wins.

Silky · Post by **Silky** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 3:32 pm

Austin wrote:Carry on and have fun with the mess to come tomorrow when I prove out. Of course then you will know who all three wolves are. USP.

Sorry that I missed this earlier. So the skin team's plan is to definitely field the fake coroner tomorrow. Otherwise how could Austin be so sure that the coroner is even still alive? I am not certain that the coroner is dead but tomorrow could be interesting indeed.

The wolves of course may know the status of the coroner and could be their final gambit. The funny thing is that if they know the coroner is dead the wolf coroner may claim Austin to be a wolf and thus get in good graces. Hell they might even do that if the coroner is still alive.

If the coroner is dead it gives better odds to Unagi to find another villager. It also means the wolves will almost certainly hit someone other than the priest and his flock.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 3:34 pm

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 3:39 pm

triggercut wrote:Yeah, we'll hang Austin, and then we need to give Remus a fair shake, but he's almost definitely #2. (Dude, you should've cut and run on Austin a while back.) At that point, we need to assess Zurai vs. Newcastle.

Village wins.

Where's Bubbles in your thinking? What happened to giving it a fair shot. I have been completely honest with the village this entire game. I have told you what I have seen. If you go back and llok at the arguments you will see that ONLY pr0ner and Unagi could possibly be sure of Austin . I still stand by the fact that triggercut had all kinds of holes in his argument. The Coroner could have some leanings but not FACTS about Austin. I argued to view the situation from the view point of a villager.

Look at the start of votes against Austin.

Day 1 the best given reasons were he has a bad sense of humor and he posts a lot. Sorry not convincing to me.

Day 2 the reasons given amount to what previous to the Priest vs. Seer debate? After he claimed Seer-hood it would have been foolish to lynch him without other knowledge.

Not once have I said Austin was certain to be innocent. I have only pointed out the flaws in arguments. I notice that nobody thought to point out the flaws in my decision to lynch Lassr yesterday.

If Unagi comes back tomorrow with a confession from Newcastle, Mr Bubbles, or Zurai then I am fine with being the first one you guys lynch from the unknowns since the game will be a lock for the village regardless. Other than that I will argue my case because I know I am not a wolf and the village is still in danger.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 3:40 pm

Silky wrote:
Austin wrote:Carry on and have fun with the mess to come tomorrow when I prove out. Of course then you will know who all three wolves are. USP.
Sorry that I missed this earlier. So the skin team's plan is to definitely field the fake coroner tomorrow. Otherwise how could Austin be so sure that the coroner is even still alive? I am not certain that the coroner is dead but tomorrow could be interesting indeed.

The wolves of course may know the status of the coroner and could be their final gambit. The funny thing is that if they know the coroner is dead the wolf coroner may claim Austin to be a wolf and thus get in good graces. Hell they might even do that if the coroner is still alive.

If the coroner is dead it gives better odds to Unagi to find another villager. It also means the wolves will almost certainly hit someone other than the priest and his flock.

Actually I meant when I died tonight as I forgot my head was in the noose.

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 3:41 pm

Yes, I am pretty sure the coroner can be faked by a wolf totally flawlessly.

That being said - in this particular game, he will have little value (perhaps I haven't thought it through). I'm just thinking either 'side' can make an argument for his information to be faked really. (or for us to be lured by a coroner that gives us information that seems to support us).

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 3:50 pm

By the way, Chaosraven, where are you?

Strolling through the forum earlier and not advancing the game = poor form.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 3:58 pm

pr0ner wrote:By the way, Chaosraven, where are you?

Strolling through the forum earlier and not advancing the game = poor form.

He's resetting the vote so the village can try again. He doesn't want a worst village evah to be in one of his games.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 3:58 pm

Silky wrote:The wolves of course may know the status of the coroner and could be their final gambit. The funny thing is that if they know the coroner is dead the wolf coroner may claim Austin to be a wolf and thus get in good graces. Hell they might even do that if the coroner is still alive.

If the coroner is dead it gives better odds to Unagi to find another villager. It also means the wolves will almost certainly hit someone other than the priest and his flock.

See this is what makes it very hard for me to believe in you. There is no way a sensible wolf does anything other than kill Unagi. For Austin to fake the Seer we know the Seer would have to be dead. If the wolves can assure themselves of both dead specials that can narrow the field for us they will. The Coroner only give information after the fact. Everytime you guys bring up the idea of Unagi living through the night it smells of trying to set up the third miss. You will notice that even when I was backing Austin's claim full heartedly I said that if he lived through the night and failed to be able to PM someone we would lynch him. He either offers the proof or dies.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 4:03 pm

Austin wrote:
pr0ner wrote:By the way, Chaosraven, where are you?

Strolling through the forum earlier and not advancing the game = poor form.
He's resetting the vote so the village can try again. He doesn't want a worst village evah to be in one of his games.

Actually he would love that since it would make his blundering attempt to find Ralph-Wiggum less of an abject embarassment.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 4:08 pm

Remus West wrote:
triggercut wrote:You're welcome to PM me. Or to PM Silky. Or to PM Unagi. Or even pr0ner.

Thing is, whomever you choose will end up Wolf Chow. Then Austin stays alive and says "I picked <wolfchow> to PM, but he got eaten. Sorry, but all that nonsense the day before cost us my Seer scan overnight."
If his PM target gets eaten then we lynch him. Pure and simple. His life hangs in the balance of his success in connecting a PM tomorrow.

Just in case anyone wanted to see the post where I told you Austin dies if he did not give us proof.

triggercut · Post by **triggercut** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 4:28 pm

Remus West wrote:
Remus West wrote:
triggercut wrote:You're welcome to PM me. Or to PM Silky. Or to PM Unagi. Or even pr0ner.

Thing is, whomever you choose will end up Wolf Chow. Then Austin stays alive and says "I picked <wolfchow> to PM, but he got eaten. Sorry, but all that nonsense the day before cost us my Seer scan overnight."
If his PM target gets eaten then we lynch him. Pure and simple. His life hangs in the balance of his success in connecting a PM tomorrow.
Just in case anyone wanted to see the post where I told you Austin dies if he did not give us proof.

Which was a fake ploy anyway....

Silky · Post by **Silky** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 4:34 pm

Remus West wrote:
Silky wrote:The wolves of course may know the status of the coroner and could be their final gambit. The funny thing is that if they know the coroner is dead the wolf coroner may claim Austin to be a wolf and thus get in good graces. Hell they might even do that if the coroner is still alive.

If the coroner is dead it gives better odds to Unagi to find another villager. It also means the wolves will almost certainly hit someone other than the priest and his flock.
See this is what makes it very hard for me to believe in you. There is no way a sensible wolf does anything other than kill Unagi. For Austin to fake the Seer we know the Seer would have to be dead. If the wolves can assure themselves of both dead specials that can narrow the field for us they will. The Coroner only give information after the fact. Everytime you guys bring up the idea of Unagi living through the night it smells of trying to set up the third miss. You will notice that even when I was backing Austin's claim full heartedly I said that if he lived through the night and failed to be able to PM someone we would lynch him. He either offers the proof or dies.

You are free to believe what you chose or rationalize. If you are a villager then you might be giving a confession to Unagi tomorrow. I also find it hard to believe that as a rational innocent villager you fail to see the value of the wolves not killing Unagi. Killing him credits his story while leaving him alive discredits it. The odds are middle to strongly against Unagi getting an active unidentified villager. As I said before only the wolves know the odds. I would not be

if he was killed but I would be

triggercut · Post by **triggercut** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 4:41 pm

The wolves cannot kill Unagi tonight.

1. If Unagi is a wolf, he can't be self-killed.

2. Because Unagi is the priest (and come on now; he is...) the wolves have one hail-mary left: they let Unagi stay alive and go for someone else to try to get a special, or....more likely they kill me (that's why Remus has been posting that he believes my innocence of late. I'm wolfmeat tonight.) Then they hope Unagi either hears the confession of a deader or gets a repeat.

Silky · Post by **Silky** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 4:41 pm

triggercut wrote:
Remus West wrote:
Remus West wrote:
triggercut wrote:You're welcome to PM me. Or to PM Silky. Or to PM Unagi. Or even pr0ner.

Thing is, whomever you choose will end up Wolf Chow. Then Austin stays alive and says "I picked <wolfchow> to PM, but he got eaten. Sorry, but all that nonsense the day before cost us my Seer scan overnight."
If his PM target gets eaten then we lynch him. Pure and simple. His life hangs in the balance of his success in connecting a PM tomorrow.
Just in case anyone wanted to see the post where I told you Austin dies if he did not give us proof.
Which was a fake ploy anyway....

No... wolf or not that threat was real. The trick, if there was one, was to eat up a miss by getting the village to lynch an innocent instead of Austin.

Edited to add three dots

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 4:52 pm

Silky, I see the value in leaving Unagi alive for the wolves. I just feel that it is by far out weighed by the risk. They risk the entire game when they could simply kill him and have a chance. Keep in mind too, I am not saying that it is only leaving Unagi alive that is an issue. ANY one of the three of you dying makes the lie impossible true. Leaving ALL of you alive means they risk a full block against them instead of the block of 2 they would face with Unagi dead. Which would you choose to face? A sure block of three that might be 4 or a block of 2? Now then, you want to reexamine the odds of Unagi living tonight?

And yes, Triggercut, I figure you are wolfmeat tonight. Regardless of what I say or do, you are the only questionable player who has put himself in a position to earn the village's trust. I have tried to but obviously I have failed in that regard.

I would bet that if Unagi lives tonight he comes back with a dead players confession or a repeat "by sad coincidence".

triggercut · Post by **triggercut** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 4:54 pm

Whichever. If Unagi dies tonight, we know Austin was a wolf, and by connection Remus West as well.

Of course, if Unagi lives....Austin is still a wolf and Remus West is probably still his compatriot.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 4:55 pm

triggercut wrote:Whichever. If Unagi dies tonight, we know Austin was a wolf, and by connection Remus West as well.

Of course, if Unagi lives....Austin is still a wolf and Remus West is probably still his compatriot.

You. Are. An. Idiot.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 5:27 pm

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 5:27 pm

Remus West wrote:
triggercut wrote:Whichever. If Unagi dies tonight, we know Austin was a wolf, and by connection Remus West as well.

Of course, if Unagi lives....Austin is still a wolf and Remus West is probably still his compatriot.
You. Are. An. Idiot.

How, exactly?

Austin is a wolf.

You are his staunchest defender.

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 5:28 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:

How's that popcorn?

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 5:37 pm

Remus, if one just goes back 4 or 5 pages and follows your posts, you really come across as totally believing Austin and totally mistrusting me. All the while insisting that you are just playing the middle of the road here. You are not, and your posts are obvious.
I love the part where you blame us all for the Lassr lynch... That was priceless... Or the part after that where you blame all of us for not keeping you from voting for Lassr. You and Austin basically lead that lynching, but it's our fault. The rest of your posts are all over the place. One minute you are all over triggercut, next hes on your list of innocents, next he's you prime target, next you explain how the wolves will probably kill him. You've got it all covered.

Also, Silky brought up a great point. If we were all wolves we would have simply lynched him, why in gods name would I have come forward as a fake Priest at that point? We could have strung him up without a word.

Mr Bubbles · Post by **Mr Bubbles** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 6:35 pm

Remus is playing middle of the road? Ha.. thats grand. I'm feeling confident that we are on the right path.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Fri Sep 28, 2007 6:49 pm

Unagi wrote:I love the part where you blame us all for the Lassr lynch.

Gonna need you to quote where I blame you all for lynching Lassr. I certainly helped that. I provided reasoning regarding my choice to vote there and stood by my vote there. I still feel good about how I approached day 1.

Go back and read. All of you. And that means you Mr Bubbles, Newcastle, Zurai.

What I have done is point out that there are two possiblities. One where Austin was lying. One where Unagi, Silky, and pr0ner are lying. I evenb said that if Unagi lives through the night and can add another villager to the fold then you can feel free to lynch me first as one of the unknowns. I still feel good about how I have approached day 2.

What did Unagi gain by coming forward? He gained pr0ner's life for the day. What I have stood by is the conviction that he prove his claim. THE EXACT SAME WAY I WAS DOING WITH AUSTIN'S CLAIM.

If Austin was the Seer then he could have proved hmself by PMing tomorrow. Unagi can prove himself by giving another villager tomorrow. Even if he does not do that I have said we should not lynch him but lynch pr0ner so that Unagi has ANOTHER shot at getting another villager.

To condemn me because I refuse to throw away the possibility that Unagi is lying is asinine. A careful villager will ALWAYS consider the possibilities. You guys can believe what you want though because you stopped actually listening quite a while ago it seems.

And yes, I have argued vehemently regarding the position of Austin telling the truth, because I was the only one even trying to see that the possibility exists.