Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[YellowKing]

I just don't get the rationale. This rises above the level of incompetence. It's malicious intent to kill as many Americans as possible.

[$iljanus]

It's like they're trying to sabotage this at every possible junction:

Syringes are key to coronavirus vaccine delivery. Trump is relying on two untested suppliers

...

After the nationwide scramble for ventilators and personal protective equipment earlier this year, healthcare professionals, supply chain experts and government officials warned that the next critical shortage could be syringes, needles and other equipment needed to administer a COVID-19 vaccine to about 320 million Americans.

Vaccinating that many people could mean the U.S. would need up to 850 million syringes in 2021 to cover an expected COVID-19 vaccine — which could require two doses — plus the usual annual demand for syringes used for flu shots, insulin and other treatments. Under pre-pandemic capacity, that could take two years to produce.

Isn’t Boy Wonder Kushner supposed to be on top of these sorts of supply problems?

[LordMortis]

What kind of health department is that?

It's a fine line. If it were me I'd be issuing a press release as the health director indicating that if you attended [X] or were at [Location] on a specific day between [Time], it's recommended that you get a test.

I don't really think there's any danger in naming the event or location for this outbreak - as opposed to naming a restaurant where people ate and might continue to eat. I'm guessing there's absurd pressure on this individual right now to not potentially enrage or taunt anyone.

But in terms of being able to definitively link attendance to a exposure and disease status? There's value in shouting that from the mountaintops.

I guess I live in socialist nightmare. We name exact places and times. "The BK lounge at 9 and Schafer has been traced as the source of X. If you've been there, around that time frame, get tested." With COVID, they've taken it to registered phones. Radio ads "apologize" and strongly recommend you answer unknown numbers because it might a hospital or the health department letting you know what's up. And we're still not afraid to name an known hotspot.

[LordMortis]

It's like they're trying to sabotage this at every possible junction:

Syringes are key to coronavirus vaccine delivery. Trump is relying on two untested suppliers

...

After the nationwide scramble for ventilators and personal protective equipment earlier this year, healthcare professionals, supply chain experts and government officials warned that the next critical shortage could be syringes, needles and other equipment needed to administer a COVID-19 vaccine to about 320 million Americans.

Vaccinating that many people could mean the U.S. would need up to 850 million syringes in 2021 to cover an expected COVID-19 vaccine — which could require two doses — plus the usual annual demand for syringes used for flu shots, insulin and other treatments. Under pre-pandemic capacity, that could take two years to produce.

He'll wait for some other industry to announce they are re-tooling and then demand they re-tool.

[Stefan Stirzaker]

So international Australia situation.

We have just started a hard lockdown on victoria (a state) borders due to 400 cases in the last week. We were down to single digits in most states and most cases were international returnees who MUST go into 14 days airport quarantine.

The vic outbreak looks like ut started when a security guard at the hotel enforcing quarantine was banging some of the returnees

Within that state there is stay at home orders for Melbourne and anither area (about 3 mill ppl) till august 17. Neighbouring state NSW has stated they will also look at returnubg to lockdown if they get 100 local transmission in 14 day period.

Australia names all locations where infected people have been when they conduct contact tracing including time range infected ppl were there. Information is key!!!

[El Guapo]

I just don't get the rationale. This rises above the level of incompetence. It's malicious intent to kill as many Americans as possible.

I tend to assume some mix of incompetence and corruption.

[Enough]

Sigh...

A Louisiana state lawmaker likened mask mandates to the persecution of Jews in Nazi Germany, and filmed himself destroying blue surgical masks with a blowtorch and a chainsaw.

[malchior]

So international Australia situation.

We have just started a hard lockdown on victoria (a state) borders due to 400 cases in the last week. We were down to single digits in most states and most cases were international returnees who MUST go into 14 days airport quarantine.

The vic outbreak looks like ut started when a security guard at the hotel enforcing quarantine was banging some of the returnees

Within that state there is stay at home orders for Melbourne and anither area (about 3 mill ppl) till august 17. Neighbouring state NSW has stated they will also look at returnubg to lockdown if they get 100 local transmission in 14 day period.

Australia names all locations where infected people have been when they conduct contact tracing including time range infected ppl were there. Information is key!!!

Glad to see you guys have a strategy to contain outbreaks! That you'll do hard lock downs for a level we'd consider low is impressive.

[LordMortis]

Information is key!!!

:envy:


Also walked into a restaurant for carryout for the first time yesterday and filled my gas tank this morning the second time since the before times. Zero people were wearing masks entering or exiting either building and while the restaurant had indoor patrons, zero people wore mask prior to ordering or while not eating. I dunno what the rules are but I'm back to my cocoon.

[LawBeefaroni]

At work, several doors are marked as non-entry and everyone is supposed to go through one of three checkpoints for temp/mask checks and entry. I was exiting through one of the non-entry doors and a delivery guy ran over and grabbed it as it was closing. Now this door is right by the loading dock so he could have just waited for he dock guys. Even in normal times it's an employee-only door so technically he can't enter anyway.

I told him there was no entry through the door. He acted like he couldn't comprehend the idea. There was back and forth and eventually I convinced him to put a mask on (he had it in his hand the whole time he was trying to go in). Best I could do, I'm not charged with getting into a physical altercation with a delivery guy.

The whole time he was like, "Who are you? Who the fuck are you?" And he kept getting more agitated and clenched (pre attack indicators).

All I could think of was all the stupid shit people are getting into over mask/no mask and was just glad to get out of there.

[Smoove_B]

Information is key!!!

:envy:

It is, but I'll add *quick* information is key. The damage has already been done by those that attended the rally (both to them and to the people they spread it to). At some point the web becomes so large that making an announcement and trying to trace it becomes impossible.

That's why the 6+ day lag between testing and reporting is a huge problem.

[LordMortis]

At work, several doors are marked as non-entry and everyone is supposed to go through one of three checkpoints for temp/mask checks and entry. I was exiting through one of the non-entry doors and a delivery guy ran over and grabbed it as it was closing. Now this door is right by the loading dock so he could have just waited for he dock guys. Even in normal times it's an employee-only door so technically he can't enter anyway.

I told him there was no entry through the door. He acted like he couldn't comprehend the idea. There was back and forth and eventually I convinced him to put a mask on (he had it in his hand the whole time he was trying to go in). Best I could do, I'm not charged with getting into a physical altercation with a delivery guy.

The whole time he was like, "Who are you? Who the fuck are you?" And he kept getting more agitated and clenched (pre attack indicators).

All I could think of was all the stupid shit people are getting into over mask/no mask and was just glad to get out of there.

If I exit through a door I am accountable for not letting someone in and there are big signs posting both me and the person trying to enter that this is the case. If I was being threatened I would acquiesce and then promptly report to my manager and the building manager and they would promptly report to the delivery company. We risk losing our international privileges and customer business for allowing those sorts of breaches.

[LawBeefaroni]

At work, several doors are marked as non-entry and everyone is supposed to go through one of three checkpoints for temp/mask checks and entry. I was exiting through one of the non-entry doors and a delivery guy ran over and grabbed it as it was closing. Now this door is right by the loading dock so he could have just waited for he dock guys. Even in normal times it's an employee-only door so technically he can't enter anyway.

I told him there was no entry through the door. He acted like he couldn't comprehend the idea. There was back and forth and eventually I convinced him to put a mask on (he had it in his hand the whole time he was trying to go in). Best I could do, I'm not charged with getting into a physical altercation with a delivery guy.

The whole time he was like, "Who are you? Who the fuck are you?" And he kept getting more agitated and clenched (pre attack indicators).

All I could think of was all the stupid shit people are getting into over mask/no mask and was just glad to get out of there.

If I exit through a door I am accountable for not letting someone in and there are big signs posting both me and the person trying to enter that this is the case. If I was being threatened I would acquiesce and then promptly report to my manager and the building manager and they would promptly report to the delivery company. We risk losing our international privileges and customer business for allowing those sorts of breaches.

It's a public area, though not a public entrance. I don't have any standing or authority to stop people other than as an employee. I said what I could, convinced him to put his mask on, and let security know.

Keep in mind that our Security, who happens to be based about 50 feet away from where this happened, have to deal with violent mental health patients, gang bangers trying to get in the ER to see/attack shot gangbangers, and all manner of other violent individuals. They wear bulletproof vests and carry tasers. They weren't exactly leaping up to track down a guy dropping off surgical equipment. There's paper and there's practice.


My main point was that this mask "contraversy" is so fucking stupid and exhausting.

[Smoove_B]

Apparently the GOP is really doubling down on this position and the memo is out:

State Rep. Nino Vitale, a Republican who represents the 85th district in west-central Ohio, says in a post on Facebook says testing is “giving the government an excuse to claim something is happening that is not happening at the magnitude they say it is happening.”

“Are you tired of living in a dictatorship yet?” Vitale writes in the post. “This is what happens when people go crazy and get tested. STOP GETTING TESTED!”

I'm legit speechless.

[Enough]

Apparently the GOP is really doubling down on this position and the memo is out:

State Rep. Nino Vitale, a Republican who represents the 85th district in west-central Ohio, says in a post on Facebook says testing is “giving the government an excuse to claim something is happening that is not happening at the magnitude they say it is happening.”

“Are you tired of living in a dictatorship yet?” Vitale writes in the post. “This is what happens when people go crazy and get tested. STOP GETTING TESTED!”

I'm legit speechless.

How long before republicans start burning testing kits?

[LawBeefaroni]

Apparently the GOP is really doubling down on this position and the memo is out:

State Rep. Nino Vitale, a Republican who represents the 85th district in west-central Ohio, says in a post on Facebook says testing is “giving the government an excuse to claim something is happening that is not happening at the magnitude they say it is happening.”

“Are you tired of living in a dictatorship yet?” Vitale writes in the post. “This is what happens when people go crazy and get tested. STOP GETTING TESTED!”

I'm legit speechless.

First dictatorship I've heard of that is run by the party NOT in power.

[Unagi]

Knowledge is their real enemy.

They know it.

[$iljanus]

Apparently the GOP is really doubling down on this position and the memo is out:

State Rep. Nino Vitale, a Republican who represents the 85th district in west-central Ohio, says in a post on Facebook says testing is “giving the government an excuse to claim something is happening that is not happening at the magnitude they say it is happening.”

“Are you tired of living in a dictatorship yet?” Vitale writes in the post. “This is what happens when people go crazy and get tested. STOP GETTING TESTED!”

I'm legit speechless.

How long before republicans start burning testing kits?

Burning masks and testing kits. The 21st century’s take on Nazi book burning.

[Smoove_B]

How long before republicans start burning testing kits?

I'm kinda surprised they're not telling everyone to just go and get tested to clog up the system and delay reporting even longer - maybe collapse the entire testing network because it's overwhelmed. Force people to stand in long lines or wait hours in close proximity (don't you dare wear a mask!) to show them how stupid they all are!

[Unagi]

Apparently the GOP is really doubling down on this position and the memo is out:

State Rep. Nino Vitale, a Republican who represents the 85th district in west-central Ohio, says in a post on Facebook says testing is “giving the government an excuse to claim something is happening that is not happening at the magnitude they say it is happening.”

“Are you tired of living in a dictatorship yet?” Vitale writes in the post. “This is what happens when people go crazy and get tested. STOP GETTING TESTED!”

I'm legit speechless.

First dictatorship I've heard of that is run by the party NOT in power.

Yeah, I keep wanting to point this out too. I mean this party in power is really having trouble not having the deep state actually running everything?

This morning Trump couldn't shut up about how corrupt the Previous Administration was... and how he's had to put up with so much - but they get away with everything... but, that ignores that his own DOJ doesn't feel there is really any more shit to look into.

[Paingod]

Apparently the GOP is really doubling down on this position and the memo is out:

State Rep. Nino Vitale, a Republican who represents the 85th district in west-central Ohio, says in a post on Facebook says testing is “giving the government an excuse to claim something is happening that is not happening at the magnitude they say it is happening.”

“Are you tired of living in a dictatorship yet?” Vitale writes in the post. “This is what happens when people go crazy and get tested. STOP GETTING TESTED!”

I'm legit speechless.

If they could just get all those tests to come back negative, they'd be advocating for it. It's not the tests they hate, it's the reality behind it.

Sadly, this whole mentality is something I've noticed growing in the GOP for years and I caught sight of it with climate change. Deny it exists, fight against it, pretend reality isn't going to slap you in the face, and push through to the next election cycle. Hopefully you'll have harvested as much money and influence you need to ride out whatever apocalypse you helped bring about.

It's not just the GOP, though. I think it exists in most people to some varying degree. I know I have blind spots where an inconvenient reality is ignored - like the fact that the clothes I wear may have been made by children or that my car is still a source of pollution. Some people just have larger spots or holes you could drive a bus through - to the point where they'll fight to protect their ignorance.

[El Guapo]

Apparently the GOP is really doubling down on this position and the memo is out:

State Rep. Nino Vitale, a Republican who represents the 85th district in west-central Ohio, says in a post on Facebook says testing is “giving the government an excuse to claim something is happening that is not happening at the magnitude they say it is happening.”

“Are you tired of living in a dictatorship yet?” Vitale writes in the post. “This is what happens when people go crazy and get tested. STOP GETTING TESTED!”

I'm legit speechless.

First dictatorship I've heard of that is run by the party NOT in power.

Yeah, I keep wanting to point this out too. I mean this party in power is really having trouble not having the deep state actually running everything?

This morning Trump couldn't shut up about how corrupt the Previous Administration was... and how he's had to put up with so much - but they get away with everything... but, that ignores that his own DOJ doesn't feel there is really any more shit to look into.

This isn't new. For Stalin, Trotsky and his faction (once Trotsky was purged) were simultaneously weak and foolish people ignored by the people, and also all powerful saboteurs responsible for everything wrong with the Soviet Union.

[Paingod]

This morning Trump couldn't shut up about how corrupt the Previous Administration was... and how he's had to put up with so much - but they get away with everything... but, that ignores that his own DOJ doesn't feel there is really any more shit to look into.

He's not talking to you, the Senate, or the DOJ when he does that.

He's talking to his cultists. Those that love him and absorb his wisdom. When everyone else turns on him because he's outlived his usefulness as a distraction, he'll still have millions of loyal true believers that will rally to his side and fawn over him. Their worship is his jet fuel.

[malchior]

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1281297572821372933

[Little Raven]

I see we've reached this stage.

[LawBeefaroni]

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1281297572821372933

Is she saying that 10-40% of the patients at hospitals at capacity are COVID? She was kind of mumbling and unclear but that's that I got from it. It's true that elective procedures have increased significantly, since they were essentially zero in late March through mid June. But any hospital that is approaching capacity would be cutting elective surgeries to deal with COVID and maintian a safety cushion. If they aren't, there's a different problem.

[stessier]

SC breaks out the number of beds taken by COVID vs. all other patients so it's easy to see the changes. Do other states not do this?

[Zaxxon]

We had an overview of our (elementary) school's reopening plan this week:

-Families are to self-screen and keep anyone home with any symptoms of any sort. In-school screening for anyone developing symptoms at the school.
-Staggered entry/exit to/from the building. A few at a time through each door.
-Masks to be worn by all kids and staff in shared areas, but not at desks.
-Loads of sanitizer and extra masks available at the school.
-Classrooms rejiggered to have desks 6+ feet apart. Looking at plexiglass shields where possible, but not on all desks.
-HVAC adjustments to improve airflow.
-Lunch will be consumed in the classroom.
-Playground equipment will be taped off. Recess will consist of individual play near each other, but not with each other or using shared stuff.
-Art/Tech/Music/PE, which ordinarily take place in their own rooms, will instead see the teacher visiting the classroom for these sessions.
-No field trips.
-School buses capped at ~30% normal capacity, alternating seating, requiring masks.
-No parent volunteers in the building. Any volunteering by parents will be outside and distanced, eg recess helpers.
-Remote option available for families not comfortable returning.

Seems like about as reasonable a plan as is feasible for an elementary school (eg taking into account the fact that expecting first-graders to wear masks for a full school day in an effective manner is a non-starter). But I'm still not sure what to think. Do I want my kids back in school this fall? Absolutely. Will they be going? TBD.

Definitely interested in thoughts of OOers on this plan, how it relates to your local school's plans, etc.

[Little Raven]

-Playground equipment will be taped off. Recess will consist of individual play near each other, but not with each other or using shared stuff.

Jesus Christ. How is this supposed to work? Make a grid out of the playground, then put each child in a square and then tell them to stay in the middle and play by themselves? While surrounded by other kids?

That sounds like some kind of exercise in psychological torture to me.

[coopasonic]

-Classrooms rejiggered to have desks 6+ feet apart.

So, like 6 kids per class?

We don't have details yet, but we were asked for our intentions and my wife said we want the kids to go to school. We'll have 5th and 9th graders and that 5th grader basically drove her insane from March through May. The 9th grader just does what he needs to do with minimal pressure or guidance. If she has to support the 5th grader again she might lose it completely. She works three days a week and I am not known for my soft touch with the kids, making her the default substitute teacher.

[Zaxxon]

-Playground equipment will be taped off. Recess will consist of individual play near each other, but not with each other or using shared stuff.

Jesus Christ. How is this supposed to work? Make a grid out of the playground, then put each child in a square and then tell them to stay in the middle and play by themselves? While surrounded by other kids?

That sounds like some kind of exercise in psychological torture to me.

It'll be interesting, for sure. This is at least a fairly small school (~300 total students) with multiple separate playgrounds/fields and only two grades out at a time.

[El Guapo]

I suspect that there are ways to make this work, but that (1) it would require a significant amount of government funding to make it work; and (2) probably there isn't enough time left at this point to make it work anyway.

I also suspect that there are going to be a lot of schools open for 1-4 weeks in September, before getting shuttered in response to community infections.

[Zaxxon]

-Classrooms rejiggered to have desks 6+ feet apart.

So, like 6 kids per class?

Currently 10+teacher (utilizing assistants as additional teachers, and banking on some significant percentage of families opting for remote). They are hoping for a variance to allow 15+teacher. I'm guessing that the shared spaces within the classrooms from The Before Times™ will be removed so as to allow the desks to be far enough apart.

I also suspect that there are going to be a lot of schools open for 1-4 weeks in September, before getting shuttered in response to community infections.

I am unhappy to say that I agree with your assessment.

[Little Raven]

I also suspect that there are going to be a lot of schools open for 1-4 weeks in September, before getting shuttered in response to community infections.

As far as I know, my local ISD is still being cagey about what it wants to do.

Parents want the schools open. Teachers want to do everything online. Nobody has any clue how to actually make anything practical.

[Blackhawk]

-School buses capped at ~30% normal capacity, alternating seating, requiring masks.

This seems like the one that would be hardest to manage unless it includes a budget to triple the fleet. Around here, at least, the buses are packed.

[Enough]

PSD schools are keying in on opening but limiting students per day so it works out that you have two days in school and three for home instruction. This is in part how they are pulling off the busing issues. Still lots of consternation and scared parents/teachers.

[Zaxxon]

-School buses capped at ~30% normal capacity, alternating seating, requiring masks.

This seems like the one that would be hardest to manage unless it includes a budget to triple the fleet. Around here, at least, the buses are packed.

Our school is directly in the neighborhood, so the vast majority of the kids either walk to school or get a 2-minute ride from a parent.

[stessier]

Our county hasn't released the full plan yet - they don't have to legally until 20 days before the start of school. Signups for full online school ends July 27th and the 20 days is July 30th, so the belief is they will wait to see how many sign up for virtual before making final plans.

That being said, they have laid out some things. There is a nice graphic here on the in-person options available. The students will be separated into 4 cohorts based on last names (thus keeping siblings together).

• Option 1 - full online
• Option 2 - one cohort present per day (each cohort in school 1 day/week)
• Option 3 - two cohorts present per day (each cohort in school 2 days/week)
• Option 4 - full in person learning

For options 2 & 3, Friday is online learning for everyone. They will switch between options on a weekly basis as determined by the Department of Health's (DHEC) rating for the county.

DHEC will use three categories to rate each county.

• Two week cumulative incidence rate per 100k people
  • Low: 0 - 50
  • Medium: 51-200
  • High: 201+
• Trend in incidence rate
  • Low: Decreasing
  • Medium: Stable
  • High: Increasing
• Two week percent positive rate
  • Low: <= 5.0%
  • Medium: 5.1% - 9.9%
  • High: >= 10.0%

So Low/Low/Low leads to Option 4 while High/High/High leads to Option 1. It isn't clear, yet, what leads to Options 2 & 3.

As of 6/21 (the last data they have in their sheet), my county was High/High/High. It would be interesting to see where we are now. My own tracking has our incidence rate as stable, but at 20%. I think the cumulative rate is still well into the high category.

Given that, choosing the virtual option seems wise simply to avoid the mess that is constantly changing the method of learning. I think a stable plan will be easier on the kids and the teachers.

[Zaxxon]

Given that, choosing the virtual option seems wise simply to avoid the mess that is constantly changing the method of learning. I think a stable plan will be easier on the kids and the teachers.

I'm with you on stability being easier on the kids from a learning standpoint. My fear is the effect that being all-online will have on social development. These kids have already lost virtually all socialization for 4 months (>5% of my youngest's entire life, which sounds crazy when I think of it that way). Making that 14 months (17% of her life!) is just terrifying to me. Yes, we've got Zoom and the like to get some minor component of socialization going in the interim, but it's not at all comparable.

Maybe everyone springs back into normal development just fine. Maybe they don't.

[YellowKing]

If we do go to online learning, I hope to God they've taken the summer to figure out how to better implement it. Because what we went through in April/May is completely unsustainable.

Virtual learning then was one or two Zoom meetings a week, and the rest was basically self-paced homework. My wife and I work full time, in jobs with multiple meetings a day. I had no way in hell to help my kids to the extent they needed help with their self-guided assignments. We pretty much spent hours of family time trying to catch up on assignments the kids fell behind on during the week.

Put a teacher in Zoom, have the kids in a virtual classroom for a full day, I'm good with it. But this self-paced "here's your assignments for the week, kids, see ya!" bullshit is not going to fly.