The Kamala Harris presidential candidacy

[Unagi]

This was about people who, 1 month ago were voting for Trump, but now are fed up with his BS?

I said she's pulling in former Trump voters. I don't know where the stipulation came from that they had to be people who were planning on voting for Trump a month ago. Maybe I missed something.

I thought we were discussing how Kamala got her numbers, versus the numbers we all saw for Biden a month ago.

So, I don't know (we all don't) where Kamala's new numbers are coming from.... What was behind the big change?

--> And you made it sound as if Kamala entering the race made a bunch of Trump voters switch to her.

[hepcat]

Between that and watching Trump lose steam and get crazier, I do think there’s a legit chance that this gets really bad for Trump.

He does appear to be getting unhinged. One of his former press secretaries posits that it's because he's not the celebrity level candidate now, Kamala is. And it's driving him nuts.

[coopasonic]

Between that and watching Trump lose steam and get crazier, I do think there’s a legit chance that this gets really bad for Trump.

He does appear to be getting unhinged. One of his former press secretaries posits that it's because he's not the celebrity level candidate now, Kamala is. And it's driving him nuts.

Kamala may be brat, but Trump is an actual brat.

I say this having the tiniest inkling of what the Kamala is brat thing is about, so please be gentle! Yes I'm an old, but I'm an old that is 7 years younger than she is!

[hepcat]

I honestly have no clue what the brat thing is either. I read it has something to do with music, but I honestly don’t care enough to look into it. Now you kids get off my lawn.

[LordMortis]

Charli XCX, which I have never listened to, because I am also old

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brat_(album)

[YellowKing]

And you made it sound as if Kamala entering the race made a bunch of Trump voters switch to her.

I think there are some. How many? Who knows. But I believe there were voters out there who were going to vote for Trump, even if they didn't really like it, because they felt Biden was on his last legs and Trump at least had some spark of vitality.

When you're seeing large increases among independents, women, Latinos, etc. those votes have to be coming from *somewhere.*

There are a LOT of people out there who don't follow politics. Like, at all. Once every four years, for two months, they pay attention, cast their vote, and then don't think about it for another 4 years. Like my mom. Voted for Clinton, voted for Bush, voted for Obama, voted for Trump. It seems crazy to us who follow it on a daily basis that anyone could be so disassociated that their party vote changes on a dime, but they are out there. So yes, I think it's perfectly plausible that there are people out there who were voting for Trump because "Biden's old" and then Harris came along and they said, "Ooh, she's young I'll vote for her."

[GreenGoo]

Biden also didn't really inspire people. He was calm and dry, not exciting.

Perhaps, but then the nearly silent out of sight Biden VP is somehow a thrilling change that pumps up the base? Even if you consider comparatively, it doesn't make a lot of sense.

Listen, I'm not arguing against Harris, as Frey said, I'm enjoying her popularity and rising poll numbers. And I admitted I was wrong about dropping Biden being a mistake. That said, I don't understand the change in the voting public's outlook. Oh well.

[YellowKing]

it's not the boring VP that's exciting them. I really think it's the youth, ethnicity, and gender which fly in the face of everything MAGA stands for. People are excited they don't have to vote for another old white guy whose policy mindset is from the 1960s.

First female president is a really big deal, just as it was a really big deal to have the first African-American president when Obama ran. People are excited to be a part of breaking down those barriers.

[LordMortis]

Whether I believe it or not, I love your optimism. It really helps when I'm not feeling it. So thank you, even as I'm still at the Harris Walz euphoria phase, I know it will fade as I think more and more about election tampering intentionally put in place out in the open and openly talking about it.

[Unagi]

And you made it sound as if Kamala entering the race made a bunch of Trump voters switch to her.

I think there are some. How many? Who knows. But I believe there were voters out there who were going to vote for Trump, even if they didn't really like it, because they felt Biden was on his last legs and Trump at least had some spark of vitality.

When you're seeing large increases among independents, women, Latinos, etc. those votes have to be coming from *somewhere.*

There are a LOT of people out there who don't follow politics. Like, at all. Once every four years, for two months, they pay attention, cast their vote, and then don't think about it for another 4 years. Like my mom. Voted for Clinton, voted for Bush, voted for Obama, voted for Trump. It seems crazy to us who follow it on a daily basis that anyone could be so disassociated that their party vote changes on a dime, but they are out there. So yes, I think it's perfectly plausible that there are people out there who were voting for Trump because "Biden's old" and then Harris came along and they said, "Ooh, she's young I'll vote for her."

You are probably right.

[Unagi]

it's not the boring VP that's exciting them. I really think it's the youth, ethnicity, and gender which fly in the face of everything MAGA stands for. People are excited they don't have to vote for another old white guy whose policy mindset is from the 1960s.

I think you are right,here.

[YellowKing]

Whether I believe it or not, I love your optimism.

As much as I'm being labeled the half glass full guy, my outlook is always tempered by the facts on the ground. I was not optimistic about Biden's chances and was steeling myself for four more years of Trump.

But my pessimism has to be supported by the facts, too. I don't get upset by things that "might happen" because they're *possible*. My pessimism for things that might happen comes in when they're *probable."

[waitingtoconnect]

Whether I believe it or not, I love your optimism.

As much as I'm being labeled the half glass full guy, my outlook is always tempered by the facts on the ground. I was not optimistic about Biden's chances and was steeling myself for four more years of Trump.

But my pessimism has to be supported by the facts, too. I don't get upset by things that "might happen" because they're *possible*. My pessimism for things that might happen comes in when they're *probable."

As a Rino or third party devotee like Jesse Ventura I can tell you that saving John McCain coming back from the dead in a 35 year old body a viable proposition like Harris/walz is more than enough to vote for them. And the more maga nutters go down ticket well… they aren’t getting a vote either.

I honestly have no clue what the brat thing is either. I read it has something to do with music, but I honestly don’t care enough to look into it. Now you kids get off my lawn.

Thank god for open carry states. Park in front of property, lose your ball or try and deliver my Uber eats and I’m going all in as if it’s a communist invasion.

[Grifman]

The numbers keep shifting;

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1822274233688359318

More info here:

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/10/upsh ... tates.html

Unless Harris totally screws up, I think the upcoming debate is only going to make things worse for Trump. Seeing a younger, energetic competent woman, vs. a raging, nutjob is not going to help him. I suspect also that if Trump reverts to insults, the contrast will be even greater. He'll always keep MAGA, of course, but the undecideds and independents will move to Harris as they already appear to be doing.

[waitingtoconnect]

Didn’t Teflon on Teflon don get damaged by that bullet?

[GreenGoo]

how is that lost on people?

It's not lost on people, it's that under 25 are the smallest voting demographic by age. Hey, I'm glad they are excited and seem to be planning to vote. Hopefully it makes a difference.

[GreenGoo]

People are excited they don't have to vote for another old white guy whose policy mindset is from the 1960s.

That may very well be true but it hardly seems based in reality, which has always been my point. Biden fought for and won education debt forgiveness for god's sake. That is literally real world positive impact on young people. When people ask what has your president done for you personally, this exists.

But hey, Harris is a spry 6 decades old. Go relatable young people candidate!

And again, I'm super excited to see a woman of colour win the presidency. For real. Obama was the best president of the USA in my lifetime, imo. I expect great things from Harris. But first she needs to win. Good luck!

From my perspective it's like watching Foundation's Psychohistory playing out in real time.

[Unagi]

how is that lost on people?

It's not lost on people, it's that under 25 are the smallest voting demographic by age. Hey, I'm glad they are excited and seem to be planning to vote. Hopefully it makes a difference.

Yeah, I think even younger people, who can't yet vote - are able to encourage deflated and unengaged parents to vote, as well.

That's absolutely a thing.

[raydude]

how is that lost on people?

It's not lost on people, it's that under 25 are the smallest voting demographic by age. Hey, I'm glad they are excited and seem to be planning to vote. Hopefully it makes a difference.

Yeah, I think even younger people, who can't yet vote - are able to encourage deflated and unengaged parents to vote, as well.

That's absolutely a thing.

That's definitely a thing. As a 53 yr old Democrat it was disheartening to me when, prior to Biden dropping out, my 15 yr old daughter was feeling down about both Biden and Trump. Even though intellectually she can see that Biden is definitely the better choice, emotionally she was not excited about having an "old" president for 4 more years. Even less so after she saw the Biden/Trump debate.

Now that Kamala is the candidate she is more positive and excited about the election. I can totally see how, even if she can't vote, she would have encouraged me to vote Kamala if I was on the fence.

[raydude]

Maybe it's premature, but I'm hoping Kamala recognizes that Pete Buttigieg is a master at dismantaling Republican attacks on Transportation

[Kraken]

Unless Harris totally screws up, I think the upcoming debate is only going to make things worse for Trump. Seeing a younger, energetic competent woman, vs. a raging, nutjob is not going to help him. I suspect also that if Trump reverts to insults, the contrast will be even greater. He'll always keep MAGA, of course, but the undecideds and independents will move to Harris as they already appear to be doing.

A line of attack that I see repeatedly is Harris's "word salad" -- selective clips of her mangling sentences. Of course she doesn't do it as often as trump does, she usually quickly corrects herself, and her meaning is clear in any case. But it's a tactic that worked against Biden and they're carrying it forward. So yes, a good debate performance might kick the legs out from under that well-worn stool, especially if trump just sputters through the same old lies and grievances that have been in his playbook since 2020 or earlier. MAGAts enjoy his Greatest Hits performances but they're just summer reruns to everyone else.

[$iljanus]

Unless Harris totally screws up, I think the upcoming debate is only going to make things worse for Trump. Seeing a younger, energetic competent woman, vs. a raging, nutjob is not going to help him. I suspect also that if Trump reverts to insults, the contrast will be even greater. He'll always keep MAGA, of course, but the undecideds and independents will move to Harris as they already appear to be doing.

A line of attack that I see repeatedly is Harris's "word salad" -- selective clips of her mangling sentences. Of course she doesn't do it as often as trump does, she usually quickly corrects herself, and her meaning is clear in any case. But it's a tactic that worked against Biden and they're carrying it forward. So yes, a good debate performance might kick the legs out from under that well-worn stool, especially if trump just sputters through the same old lies and grievances that have been in his playbook since 2020 or earlier. MAGAts enjoy his Greatest Hits performances but they're just summer reruns to everyone else.

Have there been many cases of “word salad” recently? If it’s just clips from her first presidential run and early in the Biden administration then other than the diehard Trump supporters I don’t think anyone else gives as much of a shit if she’s coming across as coherent vs some rambling delusional megalomaniac.

[Kraken]

Unless Harris totally screws up, I think the upcoming debate is only going to make things worse for Trump. Seeing a younger, energetic competent woman, vs. a raging, nutjob is not going to help him. I suspect also that if Trump reverts to insults, the contrast will be even greater. He'll always keep MAGA, of course, but the undecideds and independents will move to Harris as they already appear to be doing.

A line of attack that I see repeatedly is Harris's "word salad" -- selective clips of her mangling sentences. Of course she doesn't do it as often as trump does, she usually quickly corrects herself, and her meaning is clear in any case. But it's a tactic that worked against Biden and they're carrying it forward. So yes, a good debate performance might kick the legs out from under that well-worn stool, especially if trump just sputters through the same old lies and grievances that have been in his playbook since 2020 or earlier. MAGAts enjoy his Greatest Hits performances but they're just summer reruns to everyone else.

Have there been many cases of “word salad” recently? If it’s just clips from her first presidential run and early in the Biden administration then other than the diehard Trump supporters I don’t think anyone else gives as much of a shit if she’s coming across as coherent vs some rambling delusional megalomaniac.

IDK, there's never any context and I don't play the sound anyway. The one I saw last night was distinguished by a dancing clown in the corner. Tells you who their audience is.

[$iljanus]

Unless Harris totally screws up, I think the upcoming debate is only going to make things worse for Trump. Seeing a younger, energetic competent woman, vs. a raging, nutjob is not going to help him. I suspect also that if Trump reverts to insults, the contrast will be even greater. He'll always keep MAGA, of course, but the undecideds and independents will move to Harris as they already appear to be doing.

A line of attack that I see repeatedly is Harris's "word salad" -- selective clips of her mangling sentences. Of course she doesn't do it as often as trump does, she usually quickly corrects herself, and her meaning is clear in any case. But it's a tactic that worked against Biden and they're carrying it forward. So yes, a good debate performance might kick the legs out from under that well-worn stool, especially if trump just sputters through the same old lies and grievances that have been in his playbook since 2020 or earlier. MAGAts enjoy his Greatest Hits performances but they're just summer reruns to everyone else.

Have there been many cases of “word salad” recently? If it’s just clips from her first presidential run and early in the Biden administration then other than the diehard Trump supporters I don’t think anyone else gives as much of a shit if she’s coming across as coherent vs some rambling delusional megalomaniac.

IDK, there's never any context and I don't play the sound anyway. The one I saw last night was distinguished by a dancing clown in the corner. Tells you who their audience is.

LOL let it be said that Trump attracts only the most quality entertainment!

[Unagi]

Unless Harris totally screws up, I think the upcoming debate is only going to make things worse for Trump. Seeing a younger, energetic competent woman, vs. a raging, nutjob is not going to help him. I suspect also that if Trump reverts to insults, the contrast will be even greater. He'll always keep MAGA, of course, but the undecideds and independents will move to Harris as they already appear to be doing.

A line of attack that I see repeatedly is Harris's "word salad" -- selective clips of her mangling sentences. Of course she doesn't do it as often as trump does, she usually quickly corrects herself, and her meaning is clear in any case. But it's a tactic that worked against Biden and they're carrying it forward. So yes, a good debate performance might kick the legs out from under that well-worn stool, especially if trump just sputters through the same old lies and grievances that have been in his playbook since 2020 or earlier. MAGAts enjoy his Greatest Hits performances but they're just summer reruns to everyone else.

Have there been many cases of “word salad” recently? If it’s just clips from her first presidential run and early in the Biden administration then other than the diehard Trump supporters I don’t think anyone else gives as much of a shit if she’s coming across as coherent vs some rambling delusional megalomaniac.

IDK, there's never any context and I don't play the sound anyway. The one I saw last night was distinguished by a dancing clown in the corner. Tells you who their audience is.

I did a mid-level dive into the examples that searches returned, and every one of the examples was pretty 'lame'. We talked about it earlier.

They seem to come in 3 types:
-skipped a word
-referencing something the critic doesn't seem to follow
-take a tangent only to return to the real subject but twist the original point you were making into a different one

The third one, flustered politicians do all the time.
The second one is not word-salad at all - but comprehension fail
The first one is (as we discussed) not uncommon for otherwise 'healthy thinkers'

[YellowKing]

But hey, Harris is a spry 6 decades old. Go relatable young people candidate!

CNN had a good article today about how Harris has been building a social media engine for attracting young voters for years. We are now seeing the fruits of that labor.

While she may be 60, she doesn't *read* 60, and perception is everything. She gives cool mom vibes and kids love that.

[Grifman]

What could go wrong:

https://twitter.com/UticaEric/status/18 ... 4778899496

[Carpet_pissr]

Biden also didn't really inspire people. He was calm and dry, not exciting.

Perhaps, but then the nearly silent out of sight Biden VP is somehow a thrilling change that pumps up the base?

No, I think ANYone other than Biden would have had the same result. She's not THAT charismatic, from what I have seen of her, but again, she's not Biden. MANY people did not want Biden, even if they probably would have voted for him considering the alternative.

[Blackhawk]

And don't underestimate the effect that a win after a losing streak can have on people. The campaign up to this point - peaking with the first debate - has felt like a losing streak. Biden stepping out felt like a fresh start, justified or not. That gets people moving again - it gives them hope, and that gives things momentum.

[Victoria Raverna]

Hope and joy is always better than gloom and despair.

[hepcat]

They go hand in hand, if you ask me. Politics are all about making people think the other side will bring the doom and gloom, while you bring the hope and joy.

[Victoria Raverna]

While that is right, before Biden withdrew there were almost no hope. Only despair. We can see it in OO, too. People have been preparing themselves for a second Trump presidency. Some may wish that there'll be miracle and Biden somehow won against Trump but mentally they're preparing for the doom.

Now with Kamala, people that don't want Trump have hope again. They can feel joy again instead of despair. This doesn't mean Kamala is sure to win but now they have hope that Kamala is able to win against Trump.

[milo]

Unless Harris totally screws up, I think the upcoming debate is only going to make things worse for Trump. Seeing a younger, energetic competent woman, vs. a raging, nutjob is not going to help him. I suspect also that if Trump reverts to insults, the contrast will be even greater. He'll always keep MAGA, of course, but the undecideds and independents will move to Harris as they already appear to be doing.

A line of attack that I see repeatedly is Harris's "word salad" --

Have there been many cases of “word salad” recently?

IDK, there's never any context and I don't play the sound anyway. The one I saw last night was distinguished by a dancing clown in the corner. Tells you who their audience is.

I did a mid-level dive into the examples that searches returned, and every one of the examples was pretty 'lame'. We talked about it earlier.

They seem to come in 3 types:
-skipped a word
-referencing something the critic doesn't seem to follow
-take a tangent only to return to the real subject but twist the original point you were making into a different one

I think there's a fourth as well: overexposing.

Sometimes she tries too hard to make sure the audience is following her arguments. But she ends up sounding like a third grade teacher, oversimplifying real issues in an enthusiastic and revelatory manner.

Nothing really wrong with that, but it sounds dumb in a sound bite.

[Jaymann]

Unless Harris totally screws up, I think the upcoming debate is only going to make things worse for Trump. Seeing a younger, energetic competent woman, vs. a raging, nutjob is not going to help him. I suspect also that if Trump reverts to insults, the contrast will be even greater. He'll always keep MAGA, of course, but the undecideds and independents will move to Harris as they already appear to be doing.

A line of attack that I see repeatedly is Harris's "word salad" --

Have there been many cases of “word salad” recently?

IDK, there's never any context and I don't play the sound anyway. The one I saw last night was distinguished by a dancing clown in the corner. Tells you who their audience is.

I did a mid-level dive into the examples that searches returned, and every one of the examples was pretty 'lame'. We talked about it earlier.

They seem to come in 3 types:
-skipped a word
-referencing something the critic doesn't seem to follow
-take a tangent only to return to the real subject but twist the original point you were making into a different one

I think there's a fourth as well: overexposing.

Sometimes she tries too hard to make sure the audience is following her arguments. But she ends up sounding like a third grade teacher, oversimplifying real issues in an enthusiastic and revelatory manner.

Nothing really wrong with that, but it sounds dumb in a sound bite.

That might be the prosecutor in her used to speaking to slow jurors.

[Grifman]

https://twitter.com/brianklaas/status/1 ... hs7MLdGrhw

[Kraken]

He only won NC by 90k votes last time...not a big stretch to think it's in play.

[YellowKing]

It struck me today when thinking about Harris' surprising surge that she really is opening people's eyes to the idea that MAGA is not an inevitability, something I don't think we understood under Biden. At best, Biden felt like a weak bulwark against an inevitable tidal wave of gloom that was going to hit us sooner or later.

If you think about it, MAGA has essentially held this country hostage for 8 years. Even when Trump was booted, they only doubled down and got more extreme. It felt like Americans only had two choices - Democrats, or this weird Christo-fascism that nobody but extreme right-wing nutjobs actually wanted to live under.

The Harris campaign is throwing a lifeline that says, "Hey, we recognize this shit is getting REALLY weird, but you don't have to accept it, you don't have to be afraid of it, and you don't have to be sad about it. You're not at war with your neighbors, and your peers are not your enemies." I think that resonates not only with Democrats, but MANY Republicans who felt trapped in the cult.

I think perhaps the most striking thing about the campaign thus far is that Harris has been almost completely immune from being blamed for the economy. The Trump campaign has done an absolutely disastrous job tying her to Biden's record. With a President that faced low approval ratings when he stepped down, it should have been a slam dunk to label her "more of the same" and yet they have completely failed to do so.

The number of undecided voters is shrinking rapidly, and we haven't even had the convention yet. Based on Trump's recent appearances, which have all ended in disaster, I think we can expect that the debates are going to only give her more of a bounce. There's no way he's going to be able to maintain even a hint of decorum while he knows he's losing.

America is rejecting these freaks, and it is a glorious thing to behold. The fight's not finished, of course - this race is still far closer than it has any right to be. But we're on the right track.

[Jaymann]

And Fox is doubling down on attacking Taylor Swift. It's almost like they want DonOld to lose. And she hasn't even announced her endorsement yet (though there was a not too subtle picture of her with a silhouette of Harris). Maybe she is waiting for the convention to put it over the top.

[YellowKing]

I would be very surprised if Taylor officially endorsed Harris. She's really only gotten directly involved in politics one time, and that was at the state level. Her national level politics have been constrained to dropping little hints and general "get out the vote" campaigns. I think she has both safety concerns and PR concerns at coming down so decisively on one side or the other, so I'd wager the most we'll get is "hey kids, go vote" and use of her songs at Harris rallies.

[gilraen]

Taylor Swift officially endorsed Biden in 2020. She didn't do it until about a month before the election, though. So she will likely endorse Harris in the coming weeks.