Unagi wrote:The rest of your posts are all over the place. One minute you are all over triggercut, next hes on your list of innocents, next he's you prime target, next you explain how the wolves will probably kill him. You've got it all covered.
I was all over triggercut because he wanted to kill someone who claimed to be the Seer without more discussion. Definately a wolfy thing to do. Not sure where the step from there to being my "prime target" is any different. I have only said that we shuld lynch pr0ner today. As for him being wolf food, I also covered that. No way a Wolf triggercut goes that hard after a Wolf Austin. So if Austin is a wolf then triggercut is not. If Austin is not a Wolf then Unagi, pr0ner, and Silky are. Thus triggercut is not a wolf. As the only villager who we can say this about from a dispassionate perspective he becomes the most likely target for the wolves this evening if they choose not to eat Unagi which is where that discussion came from. Seems pretty obvious to me.
Unagi wrote:Also, Silky brought up a great point. If we were all wolves we would have simply lynched him, why in gods name would I have come forward as a fake Priest at that point? We could have strung him up without a word.
Sorry, was that by PM because I went back and looked for it and did not see where he said you could have done that. See, its things like that which keep the idea in my head that you could be lying.
“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.” - H.L. Mencken
Unagi wrote:I love the part where you blame us all for the Lassr lynch.
Gonna need you to quote where I blame you all for lynching Lassr.
No problem.
Remus West wrote:Looking at the Lassr vote (and he must have been innocent if Unagi is lying), pr0ner and Unagi were voting for Austin who was at 4. Adding Silky's vote would not kill him. Silky put Lassr at 5 then Unagi put him over the edge, killing him. Where they could not railroad one innocent they chose the other.
In this post, you just totally ignore the fact that Austin (our "Seer", right?) started the vote, and you his "Champion" backed him up later that day. Silky joined almost 24 hours later. Followed up over the next 24 hours by Newcastle, Mr.Bubbles and myself. That's not a railroad job, and you know it. I also think you backed down on this "lassr" vote when you realized that nearly everyone you need to be on 'your side' of this was also involved in that vote too.
Also, it's obvious pr0ner and I were not running a railroad job on Austin originally either. The 4/6 "pr0ner, tru1cy, Unagi, lassr" vote could have turned into 5/6 if we had Silky place his vote on Austin... This would have forced Zurai to follow through with his promise to come back and change votes if anyone was ever "Really close".
Unagi wrote:I love the part where you blame us all for the Lassr lynch.
Gonna need you to quote where I blame you all for lynching Lassr.
No problem.
Remus West wrote:Looking at the Lassr vote (and he must have been innocent if Unagi is lying), pr0ner and Unagi were voting for Austin who was at 4. Adding Silky's vote would not kill him. Silky put Lassr at 5 then Unagi put him over the edge, killing him. Where they could not railroad one innocent they chose the other.
In this post, you just totally ignore the fact that Austin (our "Seer", right?) started the vote, and you his "Champion" backed him up later that day. Silky joined almost 24 hours later. Followed up over the next 24 hours by Newcastle, Mr.Bubbles and myself. That's not a railroad job, and you know it. I also think you backed down on this "lassr" vote when you realized that nearly everyone you need to be on 'your side' of this was also involved in that vote too.
Also, it's obvious pr0ner and I were not running a railroad job on Austin originally either. The 4/6 "pr0ner, tru1cy, Unagi, lassr" vote could have turned into 5/6 if we had Silky place his vote on Austin... This would have forced Zurai to follow through with his promise to come back and change votes if anyone was ever "Really close".
If you are going to quote it why don't you quote that entire post which also includes the part where you had pr0ner on your likely innocent list. Yes, I express doubts about why you did but again, I have been trying to examine all the possibilities.
“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.” - H.L. Mencken
Unagi wrote:Also, Silky brought up a great point. If we were all wolves we would have simply lynched him, why in gods name would I have come forward as a fake Priest at that point? We could have strung him up without a word.
Sorry, was that by PM because I went back and looked for it and did not see where he said you could have done that. See, its things like that which keep the idea in my head that you could be lying.
Silky wrote:I also do not get the point you are arguing if you are in fact arguing anything. You are trying to show the village that Unagi, pr0ner, and myself are wolves. We have established that.
Don't think that is a little bit of a weak sauce argument? None of the three of us were in any danger of being lynched. Why would we plan to come out and lie about it now? I could have just as easily voted Austin lynched without Unagi coming forward if that was the case. In the version of events you are spewing wouldn't that have made the most sense? Why would we risk this gambit if all we had to do was to shut up to win? I was not certain you are a wolf but these things you keep throwing out make it look like a 100% certainty. Only thing left is to find your remaining partner.
It is interesting to me though how quickly the sixth vote fell after we waited so long on the others. Unagi posted #6 in his first post after Bubbles made his vote.
BTW - Coroner - If you know the ID of Lassr and Lassr was a wolf (which I doubt now either way this falls) it means that Unagi can NOT be lying and you can be part of that block with full faith. Same can be said if Austin turns up as wolf.
Recap so it doesn't get lost though Silky was vote 3 not vote 5 on Lassr
This was posted soon after the post Unagi quoted as trying to shift all blame from me to them on the Lassr lynch. So yeah, I was really trying to make people think I had nothing to do with it obviously.
“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.” - H.L. Mencken
Unagi wrote:Also, Silky brought up a great point. If we were all wolves we would have simply lynched him, why in gods name would I have come forward as a fake Priest at that point? We could have strung him up without a word.
Sorry, was that by PM because I went back and looked for it and did not see where he said you could have done that. See, its things like that which keep the idea in my head that you could be lying.
Silky wrote:I also do not get the point you are arguing if you are in fact arguing anything. You are trying to show the village that Unagi, pr0ner, and myself are wolves. We have established that.
Don't think that is a little bit of a weak sauce argument? None of the three of us were in any danger of being lynched. Why would we plan to come out and lie about it now? I could have just as easily voted Austin lynched without Unagi coming forward if that was the case. In the version of events you are spewing wouldn't that have made the most sense? Why would we risk this gambit if all we had to do was to shut up to win? I was not certain you are a wolf but these things you keep throwing out make it look like a 100% certainty. Only thing left is to find your remaining partner.
Ah, I had focused on the statement he made about pr0ner WHO HAD BEEN DECLARED A WOLF as not being in danger of being lynched. Kind of a silly statement don't you think? Glossed over the rest and did not see it when I went back.
So lets talk about that. We have someone declared as a Wolf by a player claiming to be the Seer. That person and two others pile onto the player claiming to be the Seer getting him lynched in place of the declared wolf. Gee, that doesn't sound like it would set off any alarm bells does it. So, sure, you could have done it quietly. It would have gotten more of you lynched.
This way, if you are lying, you got Austin lynched and you are likely to get me lynched. The final 2 misses you would need.
Once again, if Unagi, pr0ner, and Silky all make it through the night alive and Unagi adds another villager to his fold then feel free to lynch me first. The village will still win. Just do not be surprised when they all live through the night and the game ends after lynching me if he has not added another villager.
blue stuff added with the edit.
“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.” - H.L. Mencken
Yeah, not sure where you got Silky was 5. Perhaps you just fudged that a little to make Silky and I appear to have some connection? Oh no, that wouldn't be it... You must have just mixed Silky up with Mr.Bubbles post that came a whole day later.
The point has nothing to do with you trying to look like you had nothing to do with it, the point was that you tried to a) make the Lassr vote look like something Silky and I pulled off as 'Railroad Job - Plan B'. and that came on the heals of how you tried to b) make the original Austin vote to look like pr0ner and I were railroading there too. It's all so weak, but you protest it's obvious.
On day one, Austin is sitting with 4 votes, a precarious situation. He sits at 4 votes for almost a day and a half.
Those 4 votes:
1. tru1cy
2. pr0ner
3. Unagi
4. Lassr
(Votes are listed in the order they were registered.) For you scoring at home, that's three innocents and one person we don't know about. sitting on Austin.
During this time of Austin hanging precariously by a thin thread of only needing two votes to lynch, triggercut, Remus West, Newcastle, Zurai, Silky, and even Mr. Bubbles visit the thread. IF AUSTIN IS INNOCENT, 2 OF THESE PLAYERS ARE WOLVES. (pr0ner is the only unknown in that group of 4). None of these players votes against Austin. pr0ner also visits the thread and asks Remus about his unexplained vote for Lassr. IF pr0ner IS A WOLF, HE CAN PULL HIS VOTE FROM AUSTIN TO LASSR AT ANY TIME AND PLACE IT ON REMUS. HE LEAVES HIS VOTE INTACT.
Then in succession:
Austin accuses Lassr.
Remus West accuses Lassr with no explanation given.
Newcastle registers vote number 3 on Lassr.
Silky puts up vote 4.
Half a day goes by, interestingly with Remus being the first to talk about the remaining villagers needing to "break the deadlock" between Austin and Lassr.
Mr. Bubbles puts up vote 5.
50 minutes after Mr. Bubbles votes, Zurai, who claims that he'll never change his vote without either game-changing information or a deadlock at 5 votes for a significant time, drops his accusation of Silky for no other stated reason except that it's a "wasted vote". Seems kinda hinky, but I'm coming around to the idea that Zurai may be a patsy in all this.
Unagi switches votes, Lassr is an innocent sent to the gallows.
In other words, the wolf train worked just fine. Lassr went from no votes to 6 votes in about a day, whereas Austin ended up sitting at 4 votes from Sunday evening until Wednesday afternoon. The wolves had ample time to even put ONE SINGLE VOTE on Austin and push him to 5. They didn't do it.
Silky wrote:I wanted to point out that your time line is slightly incorrect Trig. I was the third vote on Lassr not the fourth. When I switched my vote from you to Lassr both of us were sitting at 2.
Silky wrote:I am not going to argue with you Remus only make a small correction. I hope you, Trig, and the rest of the village have a chat so that everyone feels comfortable with the situation and figures out where they stand.
As I noted earlier I was not the 5th vote on Lassr but the 3rd.
My next post said I'd go back and check. The one after that I corrected myself. Twice. Once in color so it wouldn't get lost. Kind of you to lose it.
It is interesting to me though how quickly the sixth vote fell after we waited so long on the others. Unagi posted #6 in his first post after Bubbles made his vote.
BTW - Coroner - If you know the ID of Lassr and Lassr was a wolf (which I doubt now either way this falls) it means that Unagi can NOT be lying and you can be part of that block with full faith. Same can be said if Austin turns up as wolf.
Recap so it doesn't get lost though Silky was vote 3 not vote 5 on Lassr
Triggercut never did go correct his error.
“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.” - H.L. Mencken
BTW, it is still interesting to me that we wait almost 7 hours between each of the votes on Lassr until Unagi decides finds Bubbles has put him at 5/6, then, barely an hour after Bubbles vote, Unagi casts his. What was the hurry?
You see how there are things implying you could be lying. That is why I want proof.
“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.” - H.L. Mencken
Silky wrote:You said that if Austin is a wolf it gets much clearer. Who would be your other two best candidates for wolves?
Doesn't matter who the other two are. If Austin is a wolf then we have
Innocents:
Silky
pr0ner
Unagi
triggercut
Remus West
Unknowns:
Newcastle
Mr Bubbles
Zurai
Only trouble there is that we don't include you on the list. Otherwise, it's a nice list.
Silky wrote:You said that if Austin is a wolf it gets much clearer. Who would be your other two best candidates for wolves?
Doesn't matter who the other two are. If Austin is a wolf then we have
Innocents:
Silky
pr0ner
Unagi
triggercut
Remus West
Unknowns:
Newcastle
Mr Bubbles
Zurai
Only trouble there is that we don't include you on the list. Otherwise, it's a nice list.
Which is why the rest of that post said that it was my point of view and nobody else was likely to agree.
What you have should look like this:
Innocent:
Unagi
pr0ner
Silky
triggercut
Unknown:
Mr Bubbles
Newcastle
Zurai
People we have decided are wolves without proof:
Remus West
“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.” - H.L. Mencken
Proof is a big word in this game. It comes in a lot of forms and I actually think we've got a fair amount against you.
You sit here with 4-5 other people pointing out the errors of your posts, your prejudices, 'their proof'... but you just shrug it all off and start back with the 'you have no proof' thing. No Remus, you are right. We have no Seer (that was confirmed through PMs with a Priest that is being backed up by the Coroner) telling us that you are a wolf. We don't have that. We have no proof.
Silky wrote:I wanted to point out that your time line is slightly incorrect Trig. I was the third vote on Lassr not the fourth. When I switched my vote from you to Lassr both of us were sitting at 2.
That's correct. You and Newcastle were roughly in the same window of time; Bubbles and Unagi also in the same time window.
Remus: there's your correction. Sorry to catch you in another misstatement.
"It's my manner, sir. It looks insubordinate, but it isn't, really."
Unagi wrote:Proof is a big word in this game. It comes in a lot of forms and I actually think we've got a fair amount against you.
You sit here with 4-5 other people pointing out the errors of your posts, your prejudices, 'their proof'... but you just shrug it all off and start back with the 'you have no proof' thing. No Remus, you are right. We have no Seer (that was confirmed through PMs with a Priest that is being backed up by the Coroner) telling us that you are a wolf. We don't have that. We have no proof.
I am over your debates.
How was that confirmed again? Interesting. Since only the Seer can PM and only during a day in which they choose to do so instead of scanning. Oh, and the wolves.
And again, I have not been arguing my innocence or guilt. That is the problem here. I have stated I am innocent. You have pointed to my posts as "proof" that I am a wolf.
Trouble is my post have ALL been about there being more than one possibility here. You claim that there is no alternative to your having told the truth. I have pointed out REPEATEDLY that you very well could be lying. Its a ballsy move if you are but it is possible.
“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.” - H.L. Mencken
Unagi wrote:We have no Seer (that was confirmed through PMs with a Priest that is being backed up by the Coroner) telling us that you are a wolf. We don't have that. We have no proof.
How was that confirmed again? Interesting. Since only the Seer can PM and only during a day in which they choose to do so instead of scanning. Oh, and the wolves.
It doesn't sound like you understood what I was saying there.
It was a sarcastic comment.
You said we had no proof that you were a wolf.
I said that you were right, and then I went on to sarcastically describe the only thing I thought you would accept as proof. A Seer that had somehow confirmed himself with the Priest, who, in turn had been confirmed by the Coroner, and with that "fail safe" trinity of specials, if the Seer came forth and said "Remus is a Wolf".
Remus West wrote:Silky, I see the value in leaving Unagi alive for the wolves. I just feel that it is by far out weighed by the risk. They risk the entire game when they could simply kill him and have a chance. Keep in mind too, I am not saying that it is only leaving Unagi alive that is an issue. ANY one of the three of you dying makes the lie impossible true. Leaving ALL of you alive means they risk a full block against them instead of the block of 2 they would face with Unagi dead. Which would you choose to face? A sure block of three that might be 4 or a block of 2? Now then, you want to reexamine the odds of Unagi living tonight?
And yes, Triggercut, I figure you are wolfmeat tonight. Regardless of what I say or do, you are the only questionable player who has put himself in a position to earn the village's trust. I have tried to but obviously I have failed in that regard.
I would bet that if Unagi lives tonight he comes back with a dead players confession or a repeat "by sad coincidence".
I wanted to talk about this for a minute. This appears to me to be a fairly obvious part of the wolf plan.
Here is the risk of killing Unagi for the wolves. All of unidentified villagers would know Unagi and his flock to be true. This is a much much more significant problem for the wolves then the relatively small chance he will identify another villager. The chance will only get worse for Unagi as another villager is killed overnight. Killing Unagi or any of the three in effect guarantees a block the wolves cannot break through.
With him alive the two remaining wolves can argue, cajole, and doth protest too much with the other two unidentified villagers. A block of 4 potentially against the villager knowns of 3. The last remaining wolf presumable will surface as the fake coroner to try to add some spice to their arguments.
I have tried to spell this out in as much detail as possible previously and I am a little surprised it is still being debated. Remus is no fool who would have and did figure this all out on his own.
Now it is of course possible that they select another plan. As far as I can see that would be for the best. Triggercut and Mr. Bubbles are in real danger of being killed overnight. Both of them show at least some support for the Unagi argument and therefore prime candidates. It is really naive to think that if the priest and flock were really wolves to choose between those two when other better candidates are surely obvious.
Newcastle, as well, is a possible kill tonight. Perhaps most likely even.
The wolves will want to kill the Villiger (out of Newcastle, Mr Bubbles, or triggercut) that they could use to make it look like we're the wolves. Right now that would be Newcastle I would think.
That being said. I actually think Newcastle (should he post and/or live through the night) will side with us, he's just the wolves best target since he didn't drop in.
(If they could kill Remus or Zurai tonight, they would so quickly).
One of those is the Seer, whether or not it is Austin is immaterial for this purpose. One of those for the purpose of this is a wolf. That leaves 2. If neither is the Coroner then Unagi as Priest has identified 2 of the remaining 4 live villagers. He draws his next confession from ANY villager, live/dead/repeat does not matter. If one was the Coroner then he has three live unrepeat possibles.
First way (live Coroner) Unagi has a 1/3 chance of getting a new live villager if they attack the Coroner tonight.
Second way (dead Coroner already) Unagi has the same chance of getting a new live villager since there would be 3 new ones alive and they would kill one of those overnight.
Either way, the wolves would be betting their entire game against that 1/3 chance.
Now, if they kill Unagi, even if we are willing to give triggercut the benefit of the doubt (and I think I have sufficiently outlined why we should) they face a group of three that is going to get smaller each day.
Unagi killed tonight, tomorrow we have:
Trusted:
triggercut
Silky
pr0ner
Untrusted:
Remus West
Newcastle
Mr Bubbles
Zurai
The village will certainly kill me. The wolves will count on that, so the next day we would have (night kill names are interchangable from the trusted list):
Trusted:
triggercut
Silky
Untrusted:
Newcastle
Mr Bubbles
Zurai
2 of the three Untrusted at that point are wolves. They get the same 1/3 chance but this one they get to influence AND if they fail they get the next day which looks like this:
Trusted:
triggercut
Untrusted:
2, one of which is Wolf
Now they have a 50/50 shot of winning the game.
NOW do you see why I say they have to kill Unagi. Their odds of winning are better facing the known block then it is facing an unbreakable Priest block. Proving Unagi means nothing to them at this point. Their odds are better having done so then they will be if they do not.
Lets look at what happens if they let Unagi live and he misses though:
(We are going to assume that triggercut gets eaten in this senario)
Trusted:
Silky
Unagi
pr0ner
Untrusted:
Remus West
Mr Bubbles
Zurai
Newcastle
Again, you lynch me. 2nd miss unless Lassr was a wolf. Now then, do they risk letting you live again. No, impossible as the three of you would then control the game so Unagi dies.
Trusted:
Silky
pr0ner
Untrusted:
Mr Bubbles
Zurai
Newcastle
2 of the untrusted are wolves. So we are back to the 1/3 debate. If they lose that then it comes down to 1 trusted and 2 unknowns and it rests back at 50/50 dependant upon the lone trusted to make up his mind.
So by killing Unagi they get to the EXACT same place they would by letting him live and having him miss. The difference being that they do not have to face any knowns the last day AND they do not have to risk any lock down Priest Block.
So, tell me again, why is it so stupid of me to be saying that Unagi dies tonight?
“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.” - H.L. Mencken
Unagi wrote:(If they could kill Remus or Zurai tonight, they would so quickly).
Dude, I am the safest player in the game tonight other than the wolves themselves. It does not matter what I say or do from here on out. Your group has its mind made up about me. No way the wolves take the lynch away from you. Even this little post is going to be pointed to as "look how he justifies living through the night"
“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.” - H.L. Mencken
The difference is the unknown village quantities will trust the flock if Unagi is killed. The rest of the numbers run is fairly meaningless. Why are we going over this again? It would be insanity to vote against the known villagers in this scenario. The knowns would then have 3 chances to nab 2 wolves.
I guess if the wolves go this route they feel that they are well placed and can potentially survive the 2 out of 3. I will only say that I don't share the same sentiments of guilt or innocence as others have mentioned. I have some well thought out reasons behind those. Either way the wolves gamble. It is up to them to decide statistically or holistically which way is better for them.
Oh, and CR is at work to the best of my knowledge. He may be home soon though unless he is working a double.
“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.” - H.L. Mencken
Unagi wrote:(If they could kill Remus or Zurai tonight, they would so quickly).
Dude, I am the safest player in the game tonight other than the wolves themselves. It does not matter what I say or do from here on out. Your group has its mind made up about me. No way the wolves take the lynch away from you. Even this little post is going to be pointed to as "look how he justifies living through the night"
Actually, you're right. I didn't really think that part through.
Y'know, it's been a long two days here while we've debated all this. This afternoon when Unagi outed himself as Priest, I figured we had it won. Austin was a wolf, Remus was a wolf, and we only had to sort out Zurai/Bubbles/Newcastle for the last one. Yay village!
Since then, RW and Austin have filled the screen with ridiculous scenario after ridiculous scenario, wearing on my resolve. I've considered the highly unlikely (What if Lassr WAS a wolf???) and the absurd (maybe Unagi, pr0ner, and Silky knew this was coming and somehow planned for all of it well in advance, including not getting a wolf train going poor, innocent Austin). I've spent a few hours dwelling on the distinct possibility that my entire premise (Lassr was an innocent) and result (therefore Austin is a wolf) is flawed.
It isn't, of course. If you map it all out with if/then statements and transitive logic, it all comes back to Austin. But seeing it expressed that starkly on paper is one thing....the emotional appeals in the thread cast doubt on even the most obvious of probabilities and causes.
...and then I went back to page 9 and read. And read. And read some more. Pay special attention to Remus West's posts, especially when Austin was posting a lot at the same time. Look the series of Remus's posts right after I accused Austin and kicked this off. Keep reading, but next pay attention to what happens when Austin "outs" himself as our Seer. Keep going as long as you like.
Now. Tell me what's missing.
I'll tell you what I noticed, and let me know if you see it too. Remus *never* directs a post with any question of evidence or identity to Austin. Ever. To any other observer, it appears to be an entirely reasonable proposition that Austin *could have* made up the whole "I'm a Seer" thing to save his neck from the noose. If you're just going on his posts versus mine, even if you're not buying my line of reason, it still would seem to be a natural thing to at least ask Austin for some clarification or interpretation of his earlier posts in the thread, right? At least one post, right?
Doesn't happen. Indulge me a bit, and read those sections again, only this time, imagine in your head two guys in a political party or on a debate team or unveiling a new product. Both Remus and Austin stay on message, don't waver, and never, ever question a thing the other says. Remus barely acknowledges that Austin is posting--he's just there at the podium, spinning and spinning like Baghdad Bob on a Bender.
As it seems likely I'll die tonight, I'd also like to leave the villagers with my thoughts on the Third Wolf.
1. Zurai
Reasons for:
A.) Changed vote from Silky at the last minute before Lassr was lynched. Preperatory to putting the vote on Lassr, but saved from doing it? Possibly.
B.) Austin vs. Zurai very early lasted about 10 minutes and seemed very, very forced.
C.) Utter rejection of any postulation that Austin could be the werewolf. (Possibly more due to me being lousy at spelling it out, or his rejection of that reasoning.)
Reasons against:
A.) Just seems too obvious. He's a contrarian in these games, and that could be fueling my suspicion.
B.) Hasn't posted in nearly two days. Hope he's ok IRL.
Newcastle:
Reasons for:
A.) Never said a discouraging word against Austin
B.) Doing the roleplaying thing seems like a ploy to stay under the radar.
C.) Cast the fourth vote on Lassr, never voted against Austin.
Reasons against:
A.) No immediate rejection of Austin as wolf hypothesis. Ploy? Hard to say.
B.) I dunno. He seems....nice?
Mr. Bubbles:
Reasons for:
A.) Cast the fifth vote for Lassr.
B.) Could be playing a darkhorse game brilliantly, has done so before.
C.) His vote to lynch Austin could be the Wolves REAL "hail mary" play, recognizing that defending Austin might be futile and hiding their third that way. The wolves take me tonight, Unagi tomorrow, Silky or pr0ner the next day, and suddenly it's a nasty, brilliant comeback.
Reasons against:
A.) Cast the 4th vote for Austin (could've been a brilliant, ballsy play if he's a wolf, but I dunno)
B.) If he is a wolf, his wolf teammates couldn't remember that he had an active lynch vote on Austin during the day.
"It's my manner, sir. It looks insubordinate, but it isn't, really."
BTW, I don't want to die with this piece of knowledge, either.
Austin couldn't have been our seer, that I can tell. No way. He made one obvious blunder. Take a look, from page 10, Austin's "outing":
Austin wrote:
Last night I scanned Remus and he's a non-wolf.
Night 1 I scanned Pr0ner and he is a wolf.
Now waitaminit.
Here was Chaosraven's instructions prior to night one:
Chaosraven wrote:The Village of Forsaken had long wondered why they had chosen that name. Perhaps it was to become prophetic...
It Is Night.
Werewolves must choose a Victim.
What's missing there? If you said "Hey, Chaos didn't ask the Seer to choose a scan!", well yeah. That's interesting.
But...what did Chaos say at the end of day one?? See page 8 for citation.
Chaosraven wrote:It Is Night.
Wolves must choose a Victim
Seer must choose Scan/Contact
Coroner may choose a body to ID
Oops. It sure seems like the Seer and Coroner got nothing on the night Grund died. Only active players that night were wolves.
Austin The Seer claimed he got a scan of Remus that night, though.
If that doesn't put paid to those two, I don't know what else will. I feel stupid for having only seen that in the last half hour when re-reading the thread.
"It's my manner, sir. It looks insubordinate, but it isn't, really."
My apologies, I checked the thread but didn't see a handy-dandy vote count before I left for work.
"Where are you off to?"
"I don't know," Snufkin replied.
The door shut again and Snufkin entered his forest, with a hundred miles of silence ahead of him.
The Village took Austin to the Gallows, where he stood with his head in the noose for the rest of the day... the Villagers looked around for a bit, waiting for the executioner to pull the lever. They began to discuss everything from the weather to the price of tea in China. FINALLY the floor fell out from beneath Austins feet and he did the air dance.
And the Village went to bed with questions unanswered.
It Is NIGHT
The Wolves must choose a Victim
The Seer must choose to SCAN/CONTACT
The Coroner may choose a dead player to Identify
"Where are you off to?"
"I don't know," Snufkin replied.
The door shut again and Snufkin entered his forest, with a hundred miles of silence ahead of him.
In case any innocent villager is still trying to piece together if it is likely or even slightly possible that Unagi, Pr0ner, and myself are still wolves; consider this.
I mentioned earlier that pr0ner was in no danger of being lynched if we were wolves. Why should we come out with this bizarre ploy that involves all three of us revealing ourselves? Well if we were wolves it is obvious that some planning and coordination went on. When Austin did the (fake) seer reveal we had to so something right? So we hatched up this far fetched priest plot.
Wouldn't have been much simpler and safer for me to come out as the seer? There was one vote left to cast on Austin to send him to the gallows. That vote was mine. I would have said I know it is not possible for Austin to be the seer because I really am. I know blah blah blah is really innocent villagers which of course they would be.
Austin would have went down and we would have gained a day. The only person with their ass in the breeze then would have been me. I would have PM'ed a dead person or identified a "wolf". All of the things Austin was planning to do if he lived the day. So sit back and think about it. If we were wolves it would have been a really stupid idea for us to out ALL of us like that.
Now it is possible that a coroner will come forward today. Truth be told I don't know if the village can trust that person regardless of what his story is.
"I do not believe a word of what has just happened."
Let my vote stand on unaqi.
/walks off in a huff, disgusted
Okay.... I have to quote this. It is too bizarre to be true. But where to start? Hmmm somehow you know that Unagi is going to live the night. That would either make you a wolf or a coroner. The wolf is part is pretty easy to explain so lets hit the coroner.
Somehow you have received your coroner request before the night slayings took place. I doubt that CR let that happen. I mean what if you are killed overnight by the evil wolves? Presumably that coroner request stated that "ding ding ding" Austin was not a wolf. I must admit that I am shocked by this revelation.
Now lets follow up with the remote possibility that you are a villager and do not trust the priest and flock. There is no uberwulf. In that scenario there are three and we are equal. Why don't you lynch me instead? That way if you are wrong the priest still has the opportunity to do his good work. In fact it would be a kindness to me if all of the villagers and wolfs remember and think about that. If you believe us to be wolves start with me and then go down to pr0ner. Anything else is working for the wolf team and you know it.
You also went up to bat for Austin with a nice well thought out couple of paragraphs. The best you can come up with in this scenario is what I quoted above? If that is the case you are doing a disservice to your team whichever one it will inevitably turn out to be.
I don't know about the others but I will leave open the possibility that you are a villager and made that crazy statement to avoid being slain tonight. That is the only thing that makes the slightest bit of sense to me. Everything else is just folding over on your team.
I didn't take his vote as being a day 3 vote, I thought that was Newcastle posting a vote to get on the record for the previous days vote... But, hmm - yeah, the lynching is long done - I am not sure what Newcastles vote was aimed for. Late Day 2 vote, or Early Day 3 vote.
Either way, doesn't change the shock value to me.
If he meant it to be a Day 3 vote, it is indeed more telling thought...
Silky wrote:There is no uberwulf. In that scenario there are three and we are equal. Why don't you lynch me instead? That way if you are wrong the priest still has the opportunity to do his good work. In fact it would be a kindness to me if all of the villagers and wolfs remember and think about that. If you believe us to be wolves start with me and then go down to pr0ner. Anything else is working for the wolf team and you know it.
Well said - I wonder what Newcastle will make of that.
The silent night was comforting to the Villagers... until the Howls returned. The crunching sounds that cut off the screams kept most of them awake through the rest of the night... all but one. In the morning light as they gathered they found only the head... eyes wide in horror and spattered with blood. Unagi was no more.
It is Day
Players remaining: 7
Majority is 4
"Where are you off to?"
"I don't know," Snufkin replied.
The door shut again and Snufkin entered his forest, with a hundred miles of silence ahead of him.
