Octopus Overlords

El Guapo wrote:More generally, trig is being generally helpful and mostly logical from what I can tell, even if I don't agree with everything (and his posts are sometimes...strange and offputting somehow). I'm not saying I'm sure he's imperial, but I'm not sold on lynching him.

I'm not getting the logical but I'm thinking probably helpful in the long game if we see it. Action/reaction are most of the game and he's moving and shaking. I've lost track of most of his train of thought.

Grundbegriff wrote:I can't believe you're all just giving tru1cy a pass.

Explicitly, that's mainly me and that's for right now. Right now I'm in a scoop or tru1cy sort of gate. If scoop is rebel then Tru1cy is probably empire. If scoop is empire then Tru1cy is probably rebel. However, I lean more on scoop.

Chaosraven wrote:

LordMortis wrote:CR has elected not to defend himself. I'd put him down.

Doesn't seem to be much point. The Blind Mob has decided for itself that their interpretation of what I called for is what I was trying to do.

So fuck 'em.

Here's my deal. You guys are stupid enough to believe I would make a Slip of that Magnitude? Vote me off. *AFTER* N is reached I will tell you how stupid you were and you can work out for yourselves, if I make it in time before the writeup.

But what do you expect of people on the first day? How do you expect to come to a decision? I don't think you're that stupid. I think the only flimsy evidence we see actually points to scoop and I really hate running someone up the ladder and then letting them down. But I'd rather see you lynched than no one and I don't think you're sitting back while the train built helped your case.

I'm going back to  Scoop 
 


It's getting late, Scoop claims no special role, he was at N-1 and was not pushed over by a secret vote, and he still brings me up tied to stessier as if he's trying to invent a reason to get me in the spot light. To me he seems the best option for today.

Chaosraven 8 <---------- Kenetickid, Triggercut, RMC, Coopasonic, Newcastle, Theohall, Scoop20906, El Guapo
Scoop20906 7 <---------- Stessier, Pr0ner, Remus West, Lord Mortis, Semaj, Chaosraven, Lassr
Triggercut 2 <----------- Isgrimnur, Unagi
Tru1cy 2 <---------------- Qantaga, Grundbegriff
Unagi 1 <----------------- Tru1cy
Semaj 1 <----------------- Mr Bubbles

I think this is where we stand with just under 12 hours to go. I think it would take something extraordinary to get anyone but Scoop or CR to 11 in that time.

I think the good thing is all these targets have the rebels spread pretty thin. On the other hand the amount of discussion and finger pointing when we don't have a single fact of any kind is either impressive or frightening.

Chaosraven wrote:

LordMortis wrote:CR has elected not to defend himself. I'd put him down.

Doesn't seem to be much point. The Blind Mob has decided for itself that their interpretation of what I called for is what I was trying to do.

So fuck 'em.

Here's my deal. You guys are stupid enough to believe I would make a Slip of that Magnitude? Vote me off. *AFTER* N is reached I will tell you how stupid you were and you can work out for yourselves, if I make it in time before the writeup.

Chaos, this is why I think that my interpretation is correct. Perhaps it isn't.

But "You guys will be sorry, I'm a key player in this and I'll tell you my role AFTER I'm at N so you know how foolish you are!" is what I'd expect a badguy to say.

I've made wrong interpretations of plays in this game quite a bit. You'd be about the fifth person to call me a moron today. Tell me WHY I'm a moron and what key role you play for the Empire and I'll go get on another train posthaste and we can hopefully marshal some protection for you in the short-term and see how it goes from there and I'll happily wear the goat horns the rest of the way.

I don't expect you to do that, though. I still very much think you are a Rebel.

Surprise me.

coopasonic wrote:Chaosraven 8 <---------- Kenetickid, Triggercut, RMC, Coopasonic, Newcastle, Theohall, Scoop20906, El Guapo
Scoop20906 7 <---------- Stessier, Pr0ner, Remus West, Lord Mortis, Semaj, Chaosraven, Lassr
Triggercut 2 <----------- Isgrimnur, Unagi
Tru1cy 2 <---------------- Qantaga, Grundbegriff
Unagi 1 <----------------- Tru1cy
Semaj 1 <----------------- Mr Bubbles

I believe Remus' vote is on Trig. BB2112 made this mistake as well. I think this is correct

Chaosraven 8 <---------- Kenetickid, Triggercut, RMC, Coopasonic, Newcastle, Theohall, Scoop20906, El Guapo
Scoop20906 6 <---------- Stessier, Pr0ner, Lord Mortis, Semaj, Chaosraven, Lassr
Triggercut 3 <----------- Isgrimnur, Unagi, Remus
Tru1cy 2 <---------------- Qantaga, Grundbegriff
Unagi 1 <----------------- Tru1cy
Semaj 1 <----------------- Mr Bubbles

stessier's vote count is correct.

Remus West wrote:

triggercut wrote:

Remus West wrote:

El Guapo wrote:

Remus West wrote:Keep voting Scoop - who I think is a Rebel (and not for the outburst but for the way the voting has gone against him)

By "the way the voting has gone against him" are you referring to the whole Yoda debate? Or is there something else about the voting that you find suspicious?

edit: fixing broken quote tags.

I could care less about the tiny window that Yoda had to cast his vote in. I do not agree with triggercut that Yoda would have already asked about presetting his order but even if I did that would just make Scoop look even more like a Rebel. What I am talking about is the way the voting against him stalled out. It will be very hard to get to 11 votes on anyone that is Rebel today since the other Rebels will likely not be very interested in helping that process. Seems we got close on Scoop and folks bailed. Seems to me that screams Scoop is a Rebel. It also means if he comes up Rebel the folks who jumped ship become VERY interesting.

Remuscide strikes again.

Hey, if you wanna run me up the flagpole, bring it. It'll make for some very interesting vote analysis that reveals a whole batch of Rebels and/or a whole lot of dense Empire players and we'll just need to sort who belongs in which pile.

You do realize that by saying that you are claiming you know for 100% certain that neither Scoop NOR I are Rebels. I would give you the Scoop thing since you keep saying you think him Empire but you have just claimed me Empire. Only one way for you to be certain of that. You just gave me reason to move my vote as though you were not already high on my list. You want a slip. There is a slip.

 triggercut 
 

stessier wrote:

coopasonic wrote:Chaosraven 8 <---------- Kenetickid, Triggercut, RMC, Coopasonic, Newcastle, Theohall, Scoop20906, El Guapo
Scoop20906 7 <---------- Stessier, Pr0ner, Remus West, Lord Mortis, Semaj, Chaosraven, Lassr
Triggercut 2 <----------- Isgrimnur, Unagi
Tru1cy 2 <---------------- Qantaga, Grundbegriff
Unagi 1 <----------------- Tru1cy
Semaj 1 <----------------- Mr Bubbles

I believe Remus' vote is on Trig. BB2112 made this mistake as well. I think this is correct

Chaosraven 8 <---------- Kenetickid, Triggercut, RMC, Coopasonic, Newcastle, Theohall, Scoop20906, El Guapo
Scoop20906 6 <---------- Stessier, Pr0ner, Lord Mortis, Semaj, Chaosraven, Lassr
Triggercut 3 <----------- Isgrimnur, Unagi, Remus
Tru1cy 2 <---------------- Qantaga, Grundbegriff
Unagi 1 <----------------- Tru1cy
Semaj 1 <----------------- Mr Bubbles

You are right. It was hard to dig through all Unagi's votes for Trig. Unagi has voted for Trig 4 times now. 1 normal and 3 R2?

Stessier is correct. Updated.

Votes

1 Lassr -----------------> Scoop20906
2 RMC ------------------> Chaosraven
3 Tru1cy --------------- > Unagi
4 Remus West ---------> Triggercut
5 Qantaga --------------> Tru1cy
6 Newcastle ------------> Chaosraven
7 Mr. Bubbles ----------> Semaj
8 Theohall --------------> Chaosraven
9 Chaosraven ----------> Scoop20906
10 Scoop20906 ----------> Chaosraven
11 Coopasonic -----------> Chaosraven
12 El Guapo --------------> Unagi
13 Lord Mortis -----------> Scoop20906
14 Stessier ---------------> Scoop20906
15 Unagi ------------------> Triggercut
16 Pr0ner -----------------> Scoop20906
17 Semaj -----------------> Scoop20906
18 Kenetickid ------------> Chaosraven
19 Triggercut ------------> Chaosraven
20 Isgrimnur -------------> Triggercut
21 Grundbegriff ---------> Tru1cy

Unagi 1 <----------------- Tru1cy
Tru1cy 2 <---------------- Qantaga, Grundbegriff
Semaj 1 <----------------- Mr Bubbles
Scoop20906 6 <---------- Stessier, Pr0ner, Lord Mortis, Semaj, Chaosraven, Lassr
Triggercut 3 <----------- Isgrimnur, Unagi, Remus West
Chaosraven 8 <---------- Kenetickid, Triggercut, RMC, Coopasonic, Newcastle, Theohall, Scoop20906, El Guapo


Majority is 11
Deadline: July 13th 9PM EST

Yeah, it's funny that there's all this talking when, especially at this point, this is really a glorified guessing game (with the odds stacked against a correct guess, at that). Straight odds would give us maybe a 33% chance of getting it right (if there's somewhere in the nature of 7 rebels to 14 imperials); with the thin evidence available to us I think we're doing well if we shift our guessing percentage up a few points.

Coop's right that it seems unlikely to lynch anyone other than Scoop or Chaos today - risky anyways, since we could wind up just short. So to catalogue evidence against them:

(1) Scoop - got to n-1 without getting Yoda'd; people (possible rebels) bailed on voting for him after he got close to a lynch; odd attempt to lynch pr0ner after pr0ner's joke.

(2) Chaos - odd Dooku argument that seemed poised to give more information to the rebels than the empire; arguably presupposed lack of existence of Yoda; FWIW the "you'll rue lynching me based on stuff I'll tell you after you lynch me" argument does sound a tad wolfy, and is at the very least unhelpful.

Neither case is open and shut, but then it's day 1. I lean Chaos since the voting pattern seems to comprise most of the case on Scoop, and I don't think that's super-compelling (since a lot of people joined the Scoop train largely on whimsy, the shift away from him could just as easily be people moving to new targets based on new information).

But in any event we should lynch someone as that will yield critical information (and hopefully a rebel as well). So I'm willing to shift if it becomes apparent that Chaos isn't happening. So let's talk Scoop v. Chaos.

Since it looks like neither Chaosraven nor Scoop will be pushed over the edge (it's been long enough), both look guilty to me. So let's find out if the rebels will kill...

 triggercut 
 


Really do not like doing this, because I believe triggercut is Empire and is actively trying to catch rebels. Meanwhile, it looks like the rebels are preventing lynches of both Chaosraven and Scoop. So, if triggercut turns up Empire, we have two targets for the next couple of days.

Hmmm, "I think Trig is a helpful imperial player, but I'm going to vote to lynch him." Let me just add that to the "theohall as rebel" file...

Now then. The rebels *can't* prevent a lynch of someone - there are (IIRC) something like 6 - 9 of them. If you think that both Scoop and Chaos look like rebels, stay on one of them (probably the one with the highest vote total, which is Chaos ATM). If they're rebels then the rebel players won't switch over, but at least a few imperials likely will to avoid passing. For example, if Scoop got higher I'd probably switch to him. Moving to the longest to the shortest train doesn't seem likely to improve the chance of a lynch.

The rebels could be preventing both lynches if they aren't on either lynch train and most of Imperials have voted already.

Are their 17 Imperials in the game? Very doubtful with only 21 players. If the Imperial vote is split right now, the rebels could be preventing both lynches.

El Guapo wrote:Now then. The rebels *can't* prevent a lynch of someone - there are (IIRC) something like 6 - 9 of them. If you think that both Scoop and Chaos look like rebels, stay on one of them (probably the one with the highest vote total, which is Chaos ATM). If they're rebels then the rebel players won't switch over, but at least a few imperials likely will to avoid passing. For example, if Scoop got higher I'd probably switch to him. Moving to the longest to the shortest train doesn't seem likely to improve the chance of a lynch.

Yup, the only thing preventing a lynch of Scoop or CR is that we are split between scoop and CR. At this stage I will go to either, but I'm not putting my vote on trig. If trig turns out to be a rebel I'll eat my proverbial hat.

If the rest of the world starts moving to Scoop/CR, I will move. But we Imperials aren't working together and the rebels aren't going to help us lynch them.

So the answer is to work on not having the imperials divided. Coop and I are willing to do Scoop, for example, and Remus has shown a willingness to go Scoop - that would put him at 9. You vote for him, he's at 10 (n-1). Pretty much no imperial (that I know of) wants to pass on lynching, so I'm confident that we'll see a move to get one of Scoop or Chaos lynched.

Meanwhile, what makes you think that all of the imperials are going to promptly unify behind the minority triggercut train?

El Guapo wrote:So the answer is to work on not having the imperials divided. Coop and I are willing to do Scoop, for example, and Remus has shown a willingness to go Scoop - that would put him at 9. You vote for him, he's at 10 (n-1). Pretty much no imperial (that I know of) wants to pass on lynching, so I'm confident that we'll see a move to get one of Scoop or Chaos lynched.

Meanwhile, what makes you think that all of the imperials are going to promptly unify behind the minority triggercut train?

A desire to actually lynch somebody and gather information instead of lynching no one and learning nothing. When the field starts moving, I will move.

El Guapo wrote:Hmmm, "I think Trig is a helpful imperial player, but I'm going to vote to lynch him." Let me just add that to the "theohall as rebel" file...

Now then. The rebels *can't* prevent a lynch of someone - there are (IIRC) something like 6 - 9 of them. If you think that both Scoop and Chaos look like rebels, stay on one of them (probably the one with the highest vote total, which is Chaos ATM). If they're rebels then the rebel players won't switch over, but at least a few imperials likely will to avoid passing. For example, if Scoop got higher I'd probably switch to him. Moving to the longest to the shortest train doesn't seem likely to improve the chance of a lynch.

Yeah....what the hell is theohall doing?

Theo, I'm Empire, and I am not a Red-shirt. I actually accidentally revealed my role waaaaay back when.

Voting for me is silly. Voting for me when you think that I'm Empire is Colby Rasmus-stupid...

El Guapo wrote:So the answer is to work on not having the imperials divided. Coop and I are willing to do Scoop, for example, and Remus has shown a willingness to go Scoop - that would put him at 9. You vote for him, he's at 10 (n-1). Pretty much no imperial (that I know of) wants to pass on lynching, so I'm confident that we'll see a move to get one of Scoop or Chaos lynched.

Meanwhile, what makes you think that all of the imperials are going to promptly unify behind the minority triggercut train?

If I have to move off Chaosraven, whom I firmly believe with his "I'm Empire and VERY IMPORTANT...but I won't tell you until I'm dead" post last night confirmed to me that he's a Rebel, I would prefer to move to poke a silent.

Actually explaining it, screws it up. Just think a little bit to understand.

(BTW, I'm telling you I'm Empire, and also telling you that while I'd rather not explicitly reveal my role--more explicitly than before, btw--I will do so before getting 8 votes against me.)

Thinking about it some more, this is bugging me:

Unagi 1 <----------------- Tru1cy
Tru1cy 2 <---------------- Qantaga, Grundbegriff
Semaj 1 <----------------- Mr Bubbles

What the hell are these people doing? There *has* to be at least one rebel amongst these four voters, right? They've been hanging out on these votes for awhile with no one jumping on board. The only explanations here are lack of interest in the game or rebel-ness, right?

El Guapo wrote:Pretty much no imperial (that I know of) wants to pass on lynching

Setting up an argument for subsequent days? "You were late to a lynching! You must be a rebel!"

"I'm not, honest! My TIE ran out of gas! I---I had a bad motivator! I didn't have enough credits for a shuttle! My armor didn't come back from the cleaners! An old clone came in from offworld! Someone stole my ship! There was an earthquake! A gungan attack! A solar flare! IT WASN'T MY FAULT, I SWEAR TO GOD!!!"

Remus West wrote:I am really curious as to why Q still likes his tru1cy vote. tru1cy pretty much came out and claimed a protector role.

It's been mostly discussed, but I'll give my reasons for still liking my tru1cy vote.

tru1cy responded directly to Grund. Here is the full post:

tru1cy wrote:

Grundbegriff wrote:Here are the ones I find especially interesting:



Fourth, and most strikingly: what happened to the new, talkative tru1cy?

My job is the protect the emperor not engage in idle chatter. You talk I protect. I have nothing and see no reason to move my vote

1. I did not interpret that as tru1cy claiming a "special" protector role. Like LM and El Guapo, I read that as tru1cy claiming generic Emperor's Royal Guard.
2. tu1cy's reply looks to me like a "defiant" tru1cy trying to justify why he's been so quiet and effectively saying that he has no plans of contributing to the general discussion of the game.
3. I can't imagine that a "special" tru1cy would even remotely hint at true special status at that point. He had 2-3 votes on him, max. It would be idiotic to tell the Rebels that you are a special at that time of Day 1. I don't think tru1cy is an idiot, so I read it as him claiming general Empire peon.

So, I don't think tru1cy is claiming a "special" role and thus, I still think he's a good lynch (especially, since there's no indication that he plans to actively participate).

Regardless, it is obvious that tru1cy will not gain enough votes to be lynched today. I will change my vote as soon as possible. My problem is that I don't get a Rebel vibe from Scoop, Chaos, or trig. I'm going to take one more look through the thread and I'll make a choice shortly.

El Guapo wrote:Thinking about it some more, this is bugging me:

Unagi 1 <----------------- Tru1cy
Tru1cy 2 <---------------- Qantaga, Grundbegriff
Semaj 1 <----------------- Mr Bubbles

What the hell are these people doing? There *has* to be at least one rebel amongst these four voters, right? They've been hanging out on these votes for awhile with no one jumping on board. The only explanations here are lack of interest in the game or rebel-ness, right?

Yeah, something. I'd be happy to throw full weight on any of these and re-visit Chaosraven later in the game if I'm not an overnight snack.

...and Qantaga wakes up!

Having re-read that post from tru1cy...yeah, what up? "I'm in the game, but I won't be contributing."

That tells me that he's either a red-shirt, a hiding rebel, or...dunno.

 withdraw triggercut 
 
(Think I found your role. Missed it in that one post the first time).

Then let's move to some very quiet folks.

Where the heck is:

 Mr Bubbles 
 

El Guapo wrote:Thinking about it some more, this is bugging me:

Unagi 1 <----------------- Tru1cy
Tru1cy 2 <---------------- Qantaga, Grundbegriff
Semaj 1 <----------------- Mr Bubbles

What the hell are these people doing? There *has* to be at least one rebel amongst these four voters, right? They've been hanging out on these votes for awhile with no one jumping on board. The only explanations here are lack of interest in the game or rebel-ness, right?

Yeah, that's just strange, and not helpful to the Empire, at all. tru1cy is just being tru1cy, but Grund, in particular, is being weird.

I'm regretting not pushing for a quiet person train either yesterday or the day before. Tru1cy's not a bad lynch choice, so I'm not holding that against Qantaga (especially now that he's here and I can read his rationale, which seems reasonable), but it is probably a bit too late in the day.

theohall wrote: withdraw triggercut 
 
(Think I found your role. Missed it in that one post the first time).

Then let's move to some very quiet folks.

Where the heck is:

 Mr Bubbles 
 

We really don't have time to be poking the silents this late in the day.

pr0ner wrote:

theohall wrote: withdraw triggercut 
 
(Think I found your role. Missed it in that one post the first time).

Then let's move to some very quiet folks.

Where the heck is:

 Mr Bubbles 
 

We really don't have time to be poking the silents this late in the day.

It's been done before with mixed success. Heck, the early lynch trains never seem to succeed in these deadline games, anyway, as Remus West already point out.

theohall wrote:

pr0ner wrote:

theohall wrote: withdraw triggercut 
 
(Think I found your role. Missed it in that one post the first time).

Then let's move to some very quiet folks.

Where the heck is:

 Mr Bubbles 
 

We really don't have time to be poking the silents this late in the day.

It's been done before with mixed success. Heck, the early lynch trains never seem to succeed in these deadline games, anyway, as Remus West already point out.

I'm not moving my vote off scoop to join a silent train. I'd consider Chaosraven if it means getting a lynch and information, but I'd prefer scoop.

I'd go for the Bubbles train, but I'm guessing that train wont produce 11 by the dealine.


Let's finish what we started.

 Scoop 
 

The fact we can't seem to get the votes on Scoop or Chaos is the most damning evidence to me on Day 1. We know there are 11 or more Imperials and the most vociferous are already on CR. If they were Imperials, the Rebs would have helped us finish them off by now.

I'm want to take a break from this thread for an hour or two, but I really want to see the imperials come together on this sooner rather than later. Yes, I am pushing CR hard. I think it's our best shot for a rebel kill and probably our second best shot for getting the votes (people seem more willing to for Scoop, but I still don't see it).

We just need 3 more votes on CR and to pull theo back to the pack. Heck 2 more if Dooku is around and wants to help us out, ignoring the whole Yoda/Dooku muddying the waters, I just want the vote placed.

theohall wrote: withdraw triggercut 
 
(Think I found your role. Missed it in that one post the first time).

Then let's move to some very quiet folks.

Where the heck is:

 Mr Bubbles 
 

Sick as a dog. Just checked in briefly, but I won't pretend to be participating. damn thing has me on my back most of the day.

Oh wait - look at that, Mr Bubbles is here.

nice timing.

 Mr Bubbles 
 



Let's give the train a chance....


(I'll be back on Scoop this afternoon if this train doesn't move)

Unagi wrote:I'd go for the Bubbles train, but I'm guessing that train wont produce 11 by the dealine.


Let's finish what we started.

 Scoop 
 

In the interest of momentum...

 Scoop 
 

Unagi wrote:Oh wait - look at that, Mr Bubbles is here.

nice timing.

 Mr Bubbles 
 



Let's give the train a chance....


(I'll be back on Scoop this afternoon if this train doesn't move)

Unagi wrote:Oh wait - look at that, Mr Bubbles is here.

nice timing.

 Mr Bubbles 
 



Let's give the train a chance....


(I'll be back on Scoop this afternoon if this train doesn't move)

??? You think I'm meta gaming? I don't do that period. Good try though.

Mr Bubbles wrote:

Unagi wrote:Oh wait - look at that, Mr Bubbles is here.

nice timing.

 Mr Bubbles 
 



Let's give the train a chance....


(I'll be back on Scoop this afternoon if this train doesn't move)

??? You think I'm meta gaming? I don't do that period. Good try though.

Actually, I typed that up before you posted, I saw you browsing.


On that note - I don't know what you mean about meta gaming, but you certainly aren't beyond: 1. Being Evil and 2. Sharing with us your RL problems that keep you from participating. That's a simple fact I recorded long ago. (and I don't hold it against ya)