Octopus Overlords

Newcastle wrote: LASSR - if someone is resurected during the day time....are they given a card?

No.

theohall wrote:Other than your initial Mr Bubbles vote, when did your vote NOT follow someone else's vote?

You realize how absurd that reasoning is? So anyone who isn't the first vote is GUILTY! Well done, Sherlock.

Newcastle ---------- kraegor ----- Qantaga ----- redrun ----- Chaosraven ----- Newcastle ----- stessier ----- Chaosraven ----- stessier -----
BB2112 ---------- Remus West ----- Remus West. ----- Newcastle ----- Mr. Bubbles ----- Remus West ----- ----- ----- -----
theohall ---------- stessier ----- Chasoraven ----- RMC ----- Chaosraven ----- redrun ----- Chaosraven ----- stessier ----- RMC ----- Chaosraven
kraegor ---------- Remus West ----- Chasoraven ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
Remus West ---------- bb2112 ----- redrun ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
El Guapo ---------- Remus West ----- kraegor ----- RMC ----- Mr. Bubbles ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
stessier ---------- Mr. Bubbles ----- RMC ----- redrun ----- Mr. Bubbles ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
triggercut ---------- El Guapo ----- Remus West ----- RMC ----- Mr. Bubbles ----- Chaosraven ----- ----- ----- -----
Chaosraven ---------- bb2112 ----- redrun ----- Mr. Bubbles ----- stessier ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
Qantaga ---------- theohall ----- stessier ----- Newcastle ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
RMC ---------- Remus West ----- Mr. Bubbles ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
redrun ---------- Qantaga ----- Chasoraven ----- Newcastle ----- Chaosraven ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
Mr. Bubbles ---------- Chaosraven ----- stessier ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
.
.
stessier -3 ---------- Newcastle, Mr. Bubbles, Chaosraven
Chaosraven -3 ---------- kraegor, triggercut, theohall
Mr. Bubbles -1 -------- El Guapo
Remus West -1 ---------- bb2112
redrun -1 --------- Remus West
Newcastle -1 ---------- Qantaga
----------

Majority = 7

stessier wrote:

theohall wrote:Other than your initial Mr Bubbles vote, when did your vote NOT follow someone else's vote?

You realize how absurd that reasoning is? So anyone who isn't the first vote is GUILTY! Well done, Sherlock.

You realize your words mean nothing to me, right? It's how quickly you jump on other vote trains which have stood out, while completely ignoring some others who have looked rather suspicious. But - again - that's your actions and not your words. Is that a difficult concept for you to understand, because it seems as if you keep talking instead of acting. How about helping us lynch Chaosraven - who was actually within two of being lynched once - and as triggercut has pointed out - was acting awfully opportunistic when Mr Bubbles reached N-2 while he did nothing when Remus West reached N-2. Heck, he even voted for you. But stick to your guns and not vote for him still. Then quickly jump on someone else's train when it comes along as you have done since your first vote. It just makes you two look in cahoots.

If we can get the other folks who voted for CR before to vote for him again, all it will take his Remus West or bb2112 to lynch him. If we take RW at his word, he should cast the lynch vote.

Then we won't need stessier-wolf to vote for his partner.

I won't vote for Chaos today. I'll be quite interested to see the result, however.

 RMC 
 

bb2112 wrote:

Remus West wrote: Giving him a pass based on what he has done today is pretty close to the same as suggesting you give him a pass for the game.

Wow. Your statements are getting more and more rediculous.

First off, as one of the folks who have given me crap about my misuse of too/to, you really need to learn the ridiculous does not have an e in it.

Secondly, what do you think is going to change regarding redrun between today and tomorrow that may change the status of his claim? Personally I think the answer to that question is "nothing". Thus, giving him a pass today is the same as giving him a pass tomorrow since his situation is going to be the same. Give him a pass tomorrow and it just keeps extending. Your willful refusal to see that would almost make me switch my vote save for the scan claim regarding your villager-ness.

 withdraw stessier 
 
... Well now what do I do? Guess I have to vote with stessier to prove theohall right.

I think Stessier should be looked at. Just a feeling about him..Plus he just went to Japan, we should lynch him just because.

I think that Chaos and Remus are both worth lynching as well.

And I am going to put my vote back on
 Remus West 
 


I just have a feeling about him, and the play of Chaos being so reluctant to vote for Remus has me with the heebee jeebees.. <shrug>

Is it just me or am i sensing day 1 fatigue? Think it would be beneficial if ElG played his deadline card to force us to make a decision?

Newcastle wrote:Is it just me or am i sensing day 1 fatigue? Think it would be beneficial if ElG played his deadline card to force us to make a decision?

2 players at 3 votes.
4 people not on a train.
7 votes for a lynch

Lynching chaosraven, Priceless.

 Chaosraven 
 
I can go for that.

If you guys are sure you want to do it this time, make sure El G uses the deadline card to avoid surprises later... And don't waste the damned talk to dead people cards on me!

stessier wrote:

redrun wrote:

Remus West wrote:

bb2112 wrote:I am not blind to the possibility of RR being a wolf, but come on, we at least have some info on him. We just need a day or 2 to prove him either through scan or a night death. Why are we proposing to do the wolves job for them?

How about this. I scanned Chaosraven and he is not a wolf.

Now, obviously that is a lie on my part but you really have nothing to differentiate that statement from the one redrun made. Suppose Chaosraven IS a wolf. Do you think he is going to call me out on it? Nope. Suppose Chaosraven is a villager. Do you think he is going to know if I actually used a card or not? Nope.

Is he going to know if you actually used a card or not... really, I think that depends on: does someone step forward to say "Hey, you said you have this card but instead I do", or on a future turn does someone steps forward to say: "Hey, you said you played this one use card, but here it is still available".

Someone else will have to come up with the logic map for faking a one use card. I don't see how anyone would get away with it.

Cards are dealt out randomly every day and there is no guarantee they will all be dealt out over the course of the game. Thus, someone claiming use of a one use card may quite easily never be caught.

No. I did the math this morning. There is a 1/3 chance of a card being in play today. Allowing for the number of 1 use cards and for two players being gone tomorrow, there is a 1/3 chance of a card being in play tomorrow. Since the second 1/3 chance can only happen if the card wasn't played on the first day, there is roughly 2/3's chance a card will be available in the first two days. Of the 39 cards in existance, 12 of them are one use, 13 of them are two use - so, we'll reduce the number of players as the game goes on, but we'll also reduce the number of cards in play.

 Stessier 
 

Newcastle ---------- kraegor ----- Qantaga ----- redrun ----- Chaosraven ----- Newcastle ----- stessier ----- Chaosraven ----- stessier -----
BB2112 ---------- Remus West ----- Remus West. ----- Newcastle ----- Mr. Bubbles ----- Remus West ----- ----- ----- -----
theohall ---------- stessier ----- Chasoraven ----- RMC ----- Chaosraven ----- redrun ----- Chaosraven ----- stessier ----- RMC ----- Chaosraven
kraegor ---------- Remus West ----- Chasoraven ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
Remus West ---------- bb2112 ----- redrun ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
El Guapo ---------- Remus West ----- kraegor ----- RMC ----- Mr. Bubbles ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
stessier ---------- Mr. Bubbles ----- RMC ----- redrun ----- Mr. Bubbles ----- RMC ----- ----- ----- -----
triggercut ---------- El Guapo ----- Remus West ----- RMC ----- Mr. Bubbles ----- Chaosraven ----- ----- ----- -----
Chaosraven ---------- bb2112 ----- redrun ----- Mr. Bubbles ----- stessier ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
Qantaga ---------- theohall ----- stessier ----- Newcastle ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
RMC ---------- Remus West ----- Mr. Bubbles ----- Remus West ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
redrun ---------- Qantaga ----- Chasoraven ----- Newcastle ----- Chaosraven ----- stessier ----- ----- ----- -----
Mr. Bubbles ---------- Chaosraven ----- stessier ----- Chaosraven ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
.
.
Chaosraven -4 ---------- kraegor, triggercut, theohall, Mr. Bubbles
Remus West -2 ---------- bb2112, RMC
stessier -2 ---------- Newcastle, redrun
Mr. Bubbles -1 -------- El Guapo
redrun -1 --------- Remus West
Newcastle -1 ---------- Qantaga
RMC -1 ---------- stessier
----------

Majority = 7

redrun wrote:No. I did the math this morning. There is a 1/3 chance of a card being in play today. Allowing for the number of 1 use cards and for two players being gone tomorrow, there is a 1/3 chance of a card being in play tomorrow. Since the second 1/3 chance can only happen if the card wasn't played on the first day, there is roughly 2/3's chance a card will be available in the first two days. Of the 39 cards in existance, 12 of them are one use, 13 of them are two use - so, we'll reduce the number of players as the game goes on, but we'll also reduce the number of cards in play.

Your math is wrong. By that logic, it is guaranteed the card will be dealt by the third day (1/3+1/3+1/3) and there is no such guarantee. I stink at odds though and don't have time to look up the proper amount. I know the odds it will be drawn on both days is .33*.33 though!

If only there were a math teacher in this game...

stessier wrote:

redrun wrote:No. I did the math this morning. There is a 1/3 chance of a card being in play today. Allowing for the number of 1 use cards and for two players being gone tomorrow, there is a 1/3 chance of a card being in play tomorrow. Since the second 1/3 chance can only happen if the card wasn't played on the first day, there is roughly 2/3's chance a card will be available in the first two days. Of the 39 cards in existance, 12 of them are one use, 13 of them are two use - so, we'll reduce the number of players as the game goes on, but we'll also reduce the number of cards in play.

Your math is wrong. By that logic, it is guaranteed the card will be dealt by the third day (1/3+1/3+1/3) and there is no such guarantee. I stink at odds though and don't have time to look up the proper amount. I know the odds it will be drawn on both days is .33*.33 though!

If only there were a math teacher in this game...

Nope, math not wrong. I didn't bother doing all the edge conditions, and after day two the edge conditions get weird (how many 1 use cards are gone, how many 2 use cards are gone, how many players are left). The odds of a card being in play on a given turn go down as the game goes further (we'll lose a greater percentage of players than cards, especially as we reduce the number of 1 or 2 use cards, and as fewer players play fewer cards we'll reduce the number of cards taken out of play). However, there is roughly 2/3'rds chance of a card being in play in the first two days.

The odds it will be drawn both days is zero. It's a one use card.

You're calling on our resident math teacher to correct my math.
(Inside joke - our resident math teacher is a dedicated teacher who does work I greatly admire, but I also play games with him - and it's best to double check his results when math is involved.)

stessier wrote:

redrun wrote:No. I did the math this morning. There is a 1/3 chance of a card being in play today. Allowing for the number of 1 use cards and for two players being gone tomorrow, there is a 1/3 chance of a card being in play tomorrow. Since the second 1/3 chance can only happen if the card wasn't played on the first day, there is roughly 2/3's chance a card will be available in the first two days. Of the 39 cards in existance, 12 of them are one use, 13 of them are two use - so, we'll reduce the number of players as the game goes on, but we'll also reduce the number of cards in play.

Your math is wrong. By that logic, it is guaranteed the card will be dealt by the third day (1/3+1/3+1/3) and there is no such guarantee. I stink at odds though and don't have time to look up the proper amount. I know the odds it will be drawn on both days is .33*.33 though!

If only there were a math teacher in this game...

Assuming a pure 33% chance (13/39), the odds of a particular card making an appearance:

- by Day 2 are 5/9 or (56%). 1 - 2(squared)/3(squared) or (1 - 4/9).
- by Day 3 are 19/27 (or 70%). 1 - 2(to the third)/3(to the third) or (1 - 8/27).
- by Day 4 are 65/81 (or 80%)... and so on.

In this game, it's trickier because cards are used and players are eliminated, but it should still be in the same ballpark. Say, 5 cards are used on Day 1, one player is lynched and one is killed overnight, that would be a 13/39 chance on Day 1 and an 11/34 chance on Day 2, which still closely approximates the theoretical result.

* cross-posted with redrun.

well...since my stessier train went *POOF*...lets hop to one of my other suspects:

 CR 
 

I think that's 5....

Oh CR...any last words? Well, if we can push your fat ass over the voting line.....but still be nice to see if you name your partners or not. Kind of doubt if you'll say anything...but...hey worth a shot.


/gets back on the end of the train
"All aboard the CR DARK MAGE EXPRESS.....C'mon, Come one, Come all...Spots for 2 more. Let nab a dark mage on our first day..Yeah!"

Looks like El Guapo went all DC and disappeared.

You need a majority before I have 'last words', chump.

I'm surprised Newcastle won't go back and but you at 6.

Chaosraven wrote:You need a majority before I have 'last words', chump.

/passes CR a questionaire

1. In the dark mages hut, when i dont do the cooking it is done by: ______(fill in the blank) or ______ (blank)

2. For funsies my favorite activity is ______ (name activity) but ______'s (name) favorite activity is _______ (name of activity). Also, ______ (fill in blank with 3rd person) favorite activity is _______ (name of activity). We get along splendidly.

3. My gas is usually the foulest in the dark mages hut....but i like to blame it on _______ (name) or _____ (Name)

4. In the dark mages hut, my favorite meal is _______ but _______(name) favorite meal is ______ (name of meal)

5. Name the order of earliest to latest riser in the dark mages hut ______(name), ______ (name), _____ (name)

6. Sometimes i like to cast dark ____(name of spell) on _____ (name of item/creature) but _____ (name) likes to cast ____ (spell name) on _____ (item). Also _____ (name) likes to cast ____ (spell name) on _____ (item)

7. In the dark mages bedroom i like to sleep in the ______ bunk bed. But _____ (name) likes the _____(bed). And _____ (name) likes the _____(bed).

/continues pushing CR's large rump
"a little help here!!"

I'm not going to waste my time trying the math because day 2 will be a mess based off what gets used day 1 and day 3 even more of a mess based off what gets used day 1 and 2 etc. Also, I hate statistics. Ask the Meal.

Remus West wrote:I'm not going to waste my time trying the math because day 2 will be a mess based off what gets used day 1 and day 3 even more of a mess based off what gets used day 1 and 2 etc. Also, I hate statistics. Ask the Meal.

hey remus, any chance you're gonna get off the lonely redrun-goin-nowhere express...and like choose like a candidate that's ya know...at least a smidgen viable?

for those on the fence about CR..my case V. him

1. I didnt like his putting words in my mouth. I didnt like him insinuating and pretty much stating i was defending Remus. I wasnt. i didnt like that train that developed.

1b. I didnt like that set up he was pushing my way.

2. He's been acting very un CR like. Good CR usually will be helpful to a degree. Compiling info, data and so forth. Where is that now? Where's teh analysis?

3. Good CR would even do stuff to draw attention to himself to sacrifice himself in place of the seer. Has he done that? If anything he hasnt done anything to really draw attention to himself.

4. He's played a VERY laser like focused game thats been focused on me. He's barely touched on others. Yet there are 3 wolves in this game right? But he decides to blast at me.

5. The opportunism of the Bubbles vote..quick train...CR hopes on board.

This is EVIL CR. Not good CR. He's basically been unhelpful and playing a very un-antagonistic game, not making enemies or anything...because face it...rattling cages gets people to look at you closely...makes people notice you....has CR done that....nah because this is stealth CR.

Think bout it guys.

*chuckling malevolently* if you imagine I have tells that transparent, you are deluding yourself

Chaosraven wrote:*chuckling malevolently* if you imagine I have tells that transparent, you are deluding yourself

no..you do have tells CR....just like everyone else...some i didnt name

Newcastle wrote:

Chaosraven wrote:*chuckling malevolently* if you imagine I have tells that transparent, you are deluding yourself

no..you do have tells CR....just like everyone else...some i didnt name

For all his bravado, he definitely has some tells. The more involved you get and the more you try to manipulate the spin the more you look guilty. I saw too much of his spin in his analysis. You cannot judge with your own standards. You have to judge person off their own behavior and CR does vary his approaches, which makes things a bit easier to read. I felt strongly from the beginning that he was guilty. I am also cautious when it comes to trig and his defense of CR. What I've seen is hardly typical CR, but trig saw me as acting strange, which confuses me as I actively played the same game, but whatever. I still think CR is guilty and trig is either guilty of off on his assessment.

Oh for petes sake would somebody just lynch me already so these guys can be proven stupid?

Chaosraven wrote:Oh for petes sake would somebody just lynch me already so these guys can be proven stupid?

Your version of death by cop?

 Chaosraven 
 

Chaosraven wrote:Oh for petes sake would somebody just lynch me already so these guys can be proven stupid?

And once again there is no gif that could truly articulate how much rolly eyes this comment should get.

Mr Bubbles wrote:

Chaosraven wrote:Oh for petes sake would somebody just lynch me already so these guys can be proven stupid?

And once again there is no gif that could truly articulate how much rolly eyes this comment should get.

And if he is a villager? No gif for the you'll feel?

I believe that puts him at n-1. Anyone want to finish him off?













 Chaosraven 
 


too late.

stessier wrote:

Mr Bubbles wrote:

Chaosraven wrote:Oh for petes sake would somebody just lynch me already so these guys can be proven stupid?

And once again there is no gif that could truly articulate how much rolly eyes this comment should get.

And if he is a villager? No gif for the you'll feel?

Not really. If he is innocent the guy hasn't been a good villager. He's antagonized the last part of this vote. I put that squarely on him.

Newcastle ---------- kraegor ----- Qantaga ----- redrun ----- Chaosraven ----- Newcastle ----- stessier ----- Chaosraven ----- stessier ----- Chaosraven
BB2112 ---------- Remus West ----- Remus West. ----- Newcastle ----- Mr. Bubbles ----- Remus West ----- ----- ----- -----
theohall ---------- stessier ----- Chasoraven ----- RMC ----- Chaosraven ----- redrun ----- Chaosraven ----- stessier ----- RMC ----- Chaosraven
kraegor ---------- Remus West ----- Chasoraven ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
Remus West ---------- bb2112 ----- redrun ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
El Guapo ---------- Remus West ----- kraegor ----- RMC ----- Mr. Bubbles ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
stessier ---------- Mr. Bubbles ----- RMC ----- redrun ----- Mr. Bubbles ----- RMC ----- Chaosraven ----- ----- -----
triggercut ---------- El Guapo ----- Remus West ----- RMC ----- Mr. Bubbles ----- Chaosraven ----- ----- ----- -----
Chaosraven ---------- bb2112 ----- redrun ----- Mr. Bubbles ----- stessier ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
Qantaga ---------- theohall ----- stessier ----- Newcastle ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
RMC ---------- Remus West ----- Mr. Bubbles ----- Remus West ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
redrun ---------- Qantaga ----- Chasoraven ----- Newcastle ----- Chaosraven ----- stessier ----- ----- ----- -----
Mr. Bubbles ---------- Chaosraven ----- stessier ----- Chaosraven ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
.
.
Chaosraven -7 ---------- kraegor, triggercut, theohall, Mr. Bubbles, Newcastle, stessier, Remus West
Remus West -2 ---------- bb2112, RMC
stessier -1 ---------- redrun
Mr. Bubbles -1 -------- El Guapo
---------
Newcastle -1 ---------- Qantaga
----------
----------

Majority = 7 Voting Closed

Decision-Day 1
The Mage Stone sat on the table for hours as the villagers debated whom to test. It showed no activity, no judgment, nothing. It was impartial. But when the majority vote was cast against Chaosraven it acted. A bolt of energy shot out from the stone striking Chaosraven in the chest. He did not have time to react. Like a stone, he dropped dead to the ground.
Within minutes a white aura appeared above his body and drifted away. A loud maon escaped the villagers lips. Chaosraven was not a Dark Mage.

Night time:
Seer: Who will you scan?
Dark Mages: Who will you kill?

Remus West wrote:I believe that puts him at n-1. Anyone want to finish him off?

 Chaosraven 
 


too late.

So exactly why did we not wait for El Guapo to play his card? I don't see where he played it..Did I miss that?

If he did not get a chance to play the card, we have just given the possibility that the wolves will have a way to mess with us...

And who did not allow that to happen..Oh look it was Remus...Hmm...