Ukraine

[Carpet_pissr]

Ukraine needs a win, any win, to boost their flagging morale.

Well, sure - but this is a pretty good 'win', no? That sentence sounds like the win is actually a loss, but they will take it cause it's spelled 'w i n' and that's good enough. Is this win really a loss?

Probably strategically/tactically not a smart move (for whatever reason, I have no idea...maybe they will not be able to hold it, or it has no strategic importance), but as mentioned, morale-wise, could have been a shot in the arm Ukraine needed. 100% talking out of my recently colonoscopied ass right now.

[Daehawk]

Could be two fold. Moral for Ukraine and fear for Russian citizens. Hoping they'll do something against Putin if they see they are part of a war for realsies.

[Alefroth]

to stir up resistance among the Russian people

To some degree it is resistance from the Russian people. I've seen reports that a significant portion of the activity involves anti-Putin Russian militias who have been fighting alongside the Ukrainian military for the last couple of years. They've conducted other cross-border raids into Russian territory in the past.

That was my first thought this time, especially with the silence from Kyiv.

[hepcat]

to stir up resistance among the Russian people

To some degree it is resistance from the Russian people. I've seen reports that a significant portion of the activity involves anti-Putin Russian militias who have been fighting alongside the Ukrainian military for the last couple of years. They've conducted other cross-border raids into Russian territory in the past.

Oh, that's too good.

[Max Peck]

Another interesting thing I'm seeing today is some reporting indicating that the axis of advance is pointing toward the Kursk nuclear power plant, which is only about 50 km from the Ukrainian border. There is some speculation that they may be attempting to neutralize it.

The plant feeds the grid for Kursk Oblast and 19 other regions. Kursk NPP is one of the three biggest NPPs in Russia and one of the four biggest electricity producers in the country.

[LordMortis]

As if it matters what I think, I'm firmly against it, and in this case turn about is not fair play. Nuclear reactors should be verboten.

[Max Peck]

I don't really think that's actually what they're planning to do (the USA, Germany and others would be very upset with that course of action), but the possibility still serves to force Russia's hand in terms of responding.

[Kraken]

Well, whatever their strategy is here it's refreshing to see Ukraine mounting an effective offense.

[Blackhawk]

One thing that they may accomplish is to change the perception that they are doing nothing but slowly losing.

[LawBeefaroni]

As if it matters what I think, I'm firmly against it, and in this case turn about is not fair play. Nuclear reactors should be verboten.

If they take it, it's to cut off electricity to the Russians, not to blow it up.

[abr]

As if it matters what I think, I'm firmly against it, and in this case turn about is not fair play. Nuclear reactors should be verboten.

If they take it, it's to cut off electricity to the Russians, not to blow it up.

I've also read some speculation from Russian military bloggers that they could try to exchange it for the Zaporizhzhia plant, not sure how realistic that would be.

[Alefroth]

So do they expect to execute a retreat when the stronger reinforcements inevitably arrive, or are they in it to the death?

[Grifman]

So do they expect to execute a retreat when the stronger reinforcements inevitably arrive, or are they in it to the death?

Who knows, if they build defenses, they may not need to defend to the death, except for the death of Russians. I think we just need to see how this plays out. They may pull back, then strike another border region to keep the Russians off guard, and keep them on the back foot.

[Holman]

One function of a serious cross-border attack is to evaporate Western concerns about escalation.

A drive into Kursk means it no longer makes sense for NATO to insist that Ukraine refrain from hitting targets inside Russia.

[El Guapo]

One function of a serious cross-border attack is to evaporate Western concerns about escalation.

A drive into Kursk means it no longer makes sense for NATO to insist that Ukraine refrain from hitting targets inside Russia.

Yeah, Ukraine has asked for permission to use ATACMS as part of its incursion. That may be part of the point, or at least a side benefit - to illustrate that it's silly to allow U.S. weapons only to be used in part of the theatre of war.

[mori]

If you look at the strategic map it could allow Ukraine a smaller front to consolidate behind within Russian borders since Ukraine has to defend its entire border region and Russia does not.

[waitingtoconnect]

A referendum must be held in Ukrainian occupied Kursk immediately to determine if as polls suggest114% of the regions population want to join Ukraine.

[Kraken]

That's gonna be kind of hard since the region is being rapidly evacuated to make it suitable for glide bombs.

[Isgrimnur]

Ukraine, Russia exchange accusations after fire at Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant

Ukraine, Russia and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said there had been no detected spike in radiation levels or any impact on nuclear safety.

“As a result of shelling of the town of Energodar by the Ukrainian armed forces, there was a fire at a cooling system of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station,” Yevgeny Balitsky, the Russian-installed governor of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region, said on Telegram.

[Isgrimnur]

[raydude]

According to this article the operation includes elements from at least 4 brigades. Which is amazing considering that drones are supposed to prevent this kind of surprise attack.

I think this raid may force Russia to garrison more troops at their borders; troops which will not be able to fight in the Donbas and which will still require resupply from their already struggling supply chain. Also, raids like this allow Ukraine to conduct maneuver warfare without having to worry about getting bogged down in minefields or hit by drones.

As both sides have seen, it's been tough for an attacker to advance into prepared defenses. So if Russia wants to kick Ukraine out of Kursk it will have to bring forces far larger than the ones Ukraine has put into Kursk. And as the article notes, Ukraine is not sitting back and allowing Russia to move men and supplies without conducting a few ambushes, which are again a lot easier to do without the threat of minefields.

[Pyperkub]

This interactive/updated map is pretty good if you haven't been looking at maps a lot lately:

You can also go back to the beginning and see just how close Russia was to crushing Kyiv in the first week...

[Carpet_pissr]

This interactive/updated map is pretty good if you haven't been looking at maps a lot lately:

You can also go back to the beginning and see just how close Russia was to crushing Kyiv in the first week...

Great map!

[Grifman]

[waitingtoconnect]

Hahaha that’s just brutal.

[Daehawk]

I see no map

[Grifman]

From what I have read, over the AFU has continued to advance for the most part. Russian resistance largely consists of small infantry teams, there is very little armor supporting the Russians, though they are supported by drones, artillery and attack aircraft. The biggest problem appears to the Russian air force, which dropping those big glide bombs on the AFU. The Russian are even using ballistic missiles on them in an attempt to slow things down. A large AFU attack on a village was reportedly defeated with heavy losses but in many places the AFU is simply bypassing any points of resistance, where the Russians either have a choice of getting surrounded or retreating. The Russian Air Force doesn’t seem to be doing much interdiction as AFU reserves and engineering equipment seem to be moving rather freely in support. There are also reports now of Russian troops from the south being pulled out of the line and moved to Kursk. Yet for now, the Russians continue to advance in the south.

Interestingly enough, Russian conscripts, which were largely manning the area, are being withdrawn. Legally, they could be sent to fight since they can fight on Russian soil. But Putin is sensitive to using them and upsetting the public, and continues to rely upon more highly paid volunteers and units of criminals. I suspect that getting back those conscripts that were captured early on will be a priority in prisoner exchanges.

[Kurth]

It feels like there’s a lot of excitement in certain corners of the internet about this Ukrainian counter-offensive. But, from a big picture perspective, is it really going to move the needle for Ukraine? I don’t question that they needed to do something, and this has certainly succeeded so far from a PR and Comms perspective, but isn’t it axiomatic that taking land from Russia is meaningless or even possibly disadvantageous?

It’s not like Ukraine is knocking on the door of any major metropolitan areas. From what I understand, they’re moving through rural, mostly empty territory, which they have little to no chance of holding once Russia refocuses its resources. I’ve seen people say that forcing Russia to refocus is the goal, but that seems like a short term thing.

What’s the end game here?

[Unagi]

I've heard: to force Russia to start drafting citizen (1 year) soldiers to defend the homeland (so as to free up the others to continue to fight in Ukraine), and by doing so - erode at any domestic support Putin has in the war.

[Grifman]

It feels like there’s a lot of excitement in certain corners of the internet about this Ukrainian counter-offensive. But, from a big picture perspective, is it really going to move the needle for Ukraine? I don’t question that they needed to do something, and this has certainly succeeded so far from a PR and Comms perspective, but isn’t it axiomatic that taking land from Russia is meaningless or even possibly disadvantageous?

It’s not like Ukraine is knocking on the door of any major metropolitan areas. From what I understand, they’re moving through rural, mostly empty territory, which they have little to no chance of holding once Russia refocuses its resources. I’ve seen people say that forcing Russia to refocus is the goal, but that seems like a short term thing.

What’s the end game here?

First off, I will say that this is a risky operation. There is a real possibility that Ukraine overextends itself like Germany in the WW2 Battle of the Bulge, and is eventually pushed back with heavy losses.

But it seems to me you are making too many assumptions about the inevitable outcome. It is a mistake to assume that taking Russian territory is “meaningless or disadvantageous” , or that the Russians will eventually retake the territory. The defense is strong in this war and engineering units have already been seen moving into the territory to build defenses. And there are good reasons for such a move.

That said, here is my take on possible reasons/goals:

1). Battlefield successes help to sustain or increase Western support and increase Ukrainian morale.

2). An offensive imposes new costs on the Putin regime. There are already over 200k Russian refugees and any fighting will destroy Russian villages not Ukrainian ones.

3). This is enormously embarrassing to the Putin regime. It shows once again that the emperor has no clothes.

4). Were there to be negotiations and Ukraine was holding this territory, it becomes a very valuable bargaining chip. Putin can’t leave Russian territory under Ukrainian control.

5). One of the captured towns is a major rail hub, supporting Russian troops further south. Supplying them has just become much more difficult.

6). This may draw away Russian troops from ongoing offensives in the south, at least temporarily, giving UAF troops there time to build up defenses.

That’s my take on the why. Whether it will be worth it in the end, only time can tell.

[Grifman]

And I see this just after I posted:

[LordMortis]

I've heard: to force Russia to start drafting citizen (1 year) soldiers to defend the homeland (so as to free up the others to continue to fight in Ukraine), and by doing so - erode at any domestic support Putin has in the war.

You start pulling safe kids out of college and the educated youth support ought to erode, I would think. No idea what the goals are or how drafting works in Russia but there seems to be a lot of safe young educated support for "unification" unless it's "fake news."

[Punisher]

As unlikely and far fetched it is I think it would be hilarious if they took Moscow and grabbed Putin.

[waitingtoconnect]

It’s an act of desperation. The Ukrainians have nearly run out of manpower.

Sadly, Russia is winning, they are meatwaving and walking barraging their way to taking over all of Ukraine east of the Dnipro river. And they could so by winter.

This attack only works only because Putin is a politician and for the sake of his prestige he can’t allow this advance to succeed.

I’f the war was being run by competent generals they’d let the Ukrainians run through whatever they want in Kursk, exhausting what’s left of their best troops and press ahead toward Dnipro regardless.

[raydude]

It’s an act of desperation. The Ukrainians have nearly run out of manpower.

Sadly, Russia is winning, they are meatwaving and walking barraging their way to taking over all of Ukraine east of the Dnipro river. And they could so by winter.

This attack only works only because Putin is a politician and for the sake of his prestige he can’t allow this advance to succeed.

I’f the war was being run by competent generals they’d let the Ukrainians run through whatever they want in Kursk, exhausting what’s left of their best troops and press ahead toward Dnipro regardless.

Press ahead toward Dnipro with what supplies? There are several rail lines in the Kursk region and at least one (the Sudzha line) is under Ukrainian control. We've seen various reports showing how the Russian military is heavily dependent on rail supply. Ever wonder why Russia couldn't do the same cross border raid from Kursk to Kyiv? Because they don't have the logistics capacity, aka trucks, to supply their troops. Ukraine on the other hand is not as dependent on rail supply, so they have more options on where to strike.

Supported by what airpower? From this WaPo article on Ukranian drone strkes on Kursk airfields there are at least 4 Russian airfields within range of Ukranian drones, thanks to the Kursk raid. And those airfields have valuable targets - Mig-31s, which fire the Kinzhal ballistic missle and other planes that carry out KAB glide bomb attacks. Take out some of those and Ukraine has some respite from air attacks. As long as the Kursk salient exists Ukraine can keep launching drones day and night on those airfields.

Finally, if what you say is true, then Russia should be taking more ground in the east right now. Why aren't we seeing bigger advances by Russia?

[Grifman]

It’s an act of desperation. The Ukrainians have nearly run out of manpower.

Not true. Ukraine has chosen not to conscript 18-24 year olds, leaving them exempt. This pool is still available if things get desperate.

Sadly, Russia is winning, they are meatwaving and walking barraging their way to taking over all of Ukraine east of the Dnipro river. And they could so by winter.

I would agree that Russia is winning but they have a long ways to go before they can declare "victory". I will say that whatever the end result, strategically, the war has been a huge defeat for Russia:

1) The Russian army, navy and air force have been shown to be incompetent and poorly trained and led, with deficient equipment
2) Finland and Sweden have joined NATO - smart move there, Putin, master strategist
3) The Russian armed forces have been gutted equipment wise. They're pressing 70+ year old T55 and T62 tanks into battle, along with ancient BMP1's and old artillery guns too. They've used up vast quantities of their armored reserves and it will take them years to replace their armor, aircraft and ship losses, if they ever do. Much of their front-line equipment has been lost.
4) The West has realized the need to rearm and increase industrial capacity for armaments. They won't be caught flatfooted in the future. Their potential industrial capacity far exceeds Russia's.

This attack only works only because Putin is a politician and for the sake of his prestige he can’t allow this advance to succeed.

That it works is all that matters. You can't ignore the political in fighting a war. After all, war is simply politics by another means as someone once said.

If the war was being run by competent generals they’d let the Ukrainians run through whatever they want in Kursk, exhausting what’s left of their best troops and press ahead toward Dnipro regardless.

If they had had competent generals, the war would have never gotten this far.

[Grifman]

Ukraine continues to advance:

[Grifman]

Conscripts to the rescue:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2 ... prisoners/

[Unagi]

what's it say?

Could you cut and paste the article here, so that I could read it?

[Isgrimnur]

When Ukrainian forces rolled into Kursk on Aug. 6, the first Russian troops they encountered weren’t the Russian military’s best professional troops. Instead, they were lightly equipped, ambivalently led conscripts.
...
The 488th Motor Rifle Regiment was in a difficult position as Ukrainian brigades closed in. Outgunned by the Ukrainian army’s 88th Mechanized Brigade, parts of the 488th Motor Rifle Regiment tried retreating on or before Wednesday. According to the Center for Defense Strategies, the fleeing Russians got turned back by Chechen “blocking units” working for the Kremlin.
...
In Soviet and Russian tradition, a blocking unit forces poorly motivated troops to fight—by threatening to arrest them ... or even shoot them. Compared to well-trained professional troops, undertrained conscripts are more likely to try fleeing after coming under fire. In that sense, conscripts and blocking units go hand-in-hand in the Russian military.

But forcing the 488th Motor Rifle Regiment to turn around and fight didn’t improve the regiment’s odds against the 88th Mechanized Brigade.

Some of the Russian regiment’s 2,000 or so troops were able to retreat from Sudzha on Wednesday when an adjacent Russian unit gained control over at least one route out of the town, CDS reported. But parts of the 488th Motor Rifle Regiment got left behind—and grabbed by the special forces at the vanguard of the Ukrainian advance.