Ukraine

[raydude]

They use donkeys and golf carts in their supply lines. They had real trouble the last time they tried a draft (september 2022? if I recall) and while I don't know how many North Koreans Kim Jong-Un is willing to sell to Putin's meat grinder I don't see how they could realistically pull it off. Unless everyone (America + EU) leaves, that is. Which is not going to happen, because Europeans see the Ukraine war as their war. Stop Putin in his tracks now or let him rebuild and come back later.

While I don't know about using donkeys and golf carts, Russia definitely is where Germany was near the end of WW2. Russia just doesn't have the modern supply and logistics chain that US and the NATO countries have, period. Why do you think Russia can't seem to pull off flanking maneuvers and/or concentrate at one point and breakthrough? They don't have the armor anymore and they don't have the ability to sustain a breakout even if they did.

Meanwhile, NATO countries know full well what pallets, forklifts, and other modern supply innovations are and have staff dedicated to nothing but logistics.

[El Guapo]

I did read somewhere that aid to Ukraine from EU countries already exceeds American aid in many areas. I also assume that Trump's overt favoritism of Russia will wind up increasing political support for additional Ukraine aid within the EU.

I also saw that Trump tweeted that the EU was created to oppose America, which is of course the inverse of the truth - America strongly supported European integration as a bulwark against the Soviets. But naturally Trump may well create the specific conditions that he imagines exist now.

[Holman]

It's tragic that Tony Judt is no longer around to interpret the present moment.

[IceBear]

I don't want Zelensky to step down, although it sounds like he'll throw himself on his sword for his country. I have no faith that his replacement won't be a Russian stooge

[Holman]

I don't want Zelensky to step down, although it sounds like he'll throw himself on his sword for his country. I have no faith that his replacement won't be a Russian stooge

His replacement would likely be appointed by him.

But he wouldn't step down anyway before guarantees of peace and security (presumably from the EU or rump NATO) were already in place.

[IceBear]

Well the White House was saying they don't believe peace can be found with him still aa Ukraine president but he wants to work with them...worried that the White House won't budge unless he leaves now. If he appoints that's fine, but if the US insists on elections that'll be bad

[LordMortis]

This GOP Administration's word is as good as Charles Ponzi's, contractual or otherwise. You'll need to look to the EU for security guarantees.

[Daehawk]

I wouldn't piss in Trump's mouth if his tongue was on fire.

[Blackhawk]

FWIW, I might resent the tone, but I'll be happy to see the EU step in. Our 'control' in the world hasn't been doing it a lot of favors lately. Instead of expecting the world to line up for us, we need to be on the outside for a while, then come back as part of the world community rather than as it's self-appointed leader.

[Blackhawk]

I wouldn't piss in Trump's mouth if his tongue was on fire.

The mental image, it burns!

(That isn't an invitation to pee in my brain.)

[El Guapo]

Well the White House was saying they don't believe peace can be found with him still aa Ukraine president but he wants to work with them...worried that the White House won't budge unless he leaves now. If he appoints that's fine, but if the US insists on elections that'll be bad

There's zero chance that Zelenskyy steps down anytime soon. He was making a rhetorical point. I imagine that he genuinely would resign if that would make a real peace deal possible, but everyone knows that Trump and Putin wouldn't agree to that type of agreement.

[Lagom Lite]

I did read somewhere that aid to Ukraine from EU countries already exceeds American aid in many areas. I also assume that Trump's overt favoritism of Russia will wind up increasing political support for additional Ukraine aid within the EU.

I also saw that Trump tweeted that the EU was created to oppose America, which is of course the inverse of the truth - America strongly supported European integration as a bulwark against the Soviets. But naturally Trump may well create the specific conditions that he imagines exist now.

If I recall (and I'm drawing from memory, so don't quote me here), latest figures had USA at 43% of the total military support to Ukraine, and is the single largest individual contributor. European countries as a whole give more aid than the US. Then there's humanitarian aid which is about as much in money, where Europe is also the biggest donor.

But it's more complicated than raw numbers. It's what kind of military materiel that is given, how it is valued and how it is used on the battlefield. Russian military investments, for example, looks smaller on paper than they actually are, especially when the Rubel is weak. Adjusted for purchasing power, even a relatively small economy such as the Russian one (in GDP) can actually muster a larger effort since the materiel they produce is cheaper.

Here is a Danish military analyst who makes good videos on the subject:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rxq-TvgNCBU

As I hinted at before, the greatest contribution to the Ukrainian war effort from the American point of view is actually intelligence sharing, logistics and organizational structure. Although Patriot missiles help, too.

[Lagom Lite]

FWIW, I might resent the tone, but I'll be happy to see the EU step in. Our 'control' in the world hasn't been doing it a lot of favors lately. Instead of expecting the world to line up for us, we need to be on the outside for a while, then come back as part of the world community rather than as it's self-appointed leader.

I feel like I need to comment this; and I hope you don't think me condescending or dismissive; but when American Presidents post-Cold War have pressured Europe to arm up, it's often been recieved as American corporations wanting to make money by exporting their (expensive) products to us. And few European countries have seen the need to arm up against a fallen Soviet Union with whom we're improving relations and trading. European critique of America has long been that you're warmongers, and arming against a threat that doesn't exist.

Of course, Europe was naive, and the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 created that insight. With President Trumps recent abandoning of Ukraine the EU now has full focus on gearing up. Some central functions still rely on American leadership through NATO (Command structures, intelligence, logistics) and will be difficult to replace in the short term, so I still think this endeavour will happen under a NATO umbrella. Maybe a more clear European Pillar will emerge, with a European deputy Supreme Commander instead on an American, for example. I can't see it being organized through the EU per se. Britain, France, Poland and Germany (and later, Ukraine, who will field one of the most battle-hardened armies in the world) will be the major players in building a coalition of the willing. Smaller countries can contribute with specialized contributions. I mean, Germany + Ukraine + Poland + Finland alone matches Russia in terms of manpower. There's no point in throwing a Portugese regiment on the ground, the level and type of contribution could vary per country.

Above all, European defense industries need to grow as America is increasingly seen as an unreliable partner. Sweden has a small but competent arms and aerospace industry, so our small nation may profit from this development quite a bit. Time to buy shares in Bofors and SAAB I guess.

[raydude]

US pausing intelligence support for Ukraine

In the lead up to Trump’s inauguration, Ratcliffe and the Trump transition team were told of the value of intelligence sharing with Ukraine by US officials who stressed that it was a hallmark of their achievements on the battlefield, according to a source familiar with the discussions.

#*@!#$ traitors. I hope they all rot in a Russian version of hell.

[Max Peck]

Next up, America disables GPS in the Ukraine theatre of operations and begins sharing detailed targeting intel on Zelenskyy's whereabouts with the Kremlin. Trump will earn huge brownie points by putting Putin's Three Day War back on schedule.

[Max Peck]

Trump has done his best to cripple Ukraine's ability to use HIMARS effectively, even before they run out of ammunition for the systems.

Abruptly Blocking Intel, The U.S. Prevents Ukraine’s HIMARS From Firing For Maximum Effect

Unilaterally demanding Ukraine end a war it did not start, the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump ended a longstanding intelligence-sharing arrangement with Ukraine this week. The schism had an immediate effect on the Ukrainian army’s U.S.-made High-Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems.

According to The Washington Post, some of the Ukrainian batteries that operate the country’s 40 or so wheeled HIMARS rocket launchers, each of which lobs a six-pack of 660-pound precision-guided rockets as far as 57 miles, are no longer getting coordinates for the most distant Russian targets, 40 miles away or farther.

“America cut a key intel link for alerts at 2pm Kyiv [time],” The Economist’s Oliver Carroll wrote Wednesday. “Before that: targeting data for HIMARS. Ukraine also isn’t receiving realtime information for long-range strikes.”

HIMARS, like other artillery systems, just needs map grid coordinates—manually calculated or aided by GPS—to accurately strike a target. Those coordinates can come from any intelligence source: a satellite, a drone, radio eavesdropping or even a human spotter with a pair of binoculars.

Which is why, around the same time the Americans began blocking intel, a Ukrainian HIMARS blasted a concentration of Russian troops around Pokrovsk, a Ukrainian-held fortress city in eastern Ukraine. The nearest Russian regiments are just a few miles from Pokrovsk, well within reach of even smaller drones.

Ukraine’s own intel assets—in particular, its drones—are concentrated directly over or near the front line. Beyond 40 miles or so, U.S. assets such as satellites tend to be more abundant. It’s not that Ukraine can’t spot targets for its HIMARS with its own intel or intel provided by its European allies. It’s just that it’s harder now that the Americans have ended intel sharing.

It might prove painful, but Ukraine can compensate for the sudden American intransigence. Ukraine’s European allies possess many of the same space capabilities as the U.S., albeit on a smaller scale. Commercial providers possess others—and can be paid to provide them.

Unless and until Trump reverses his anti-Ukraine positions or the Ukrainians secure other sources of intel on distant targets, Ukraine’s HIMARS might not fire as far or as accurately.

But they can still fire. At least until their rockets, most of which have been donated by the U.S., run out.

[Holman]

How long because Trump has Hegseth's Pentagon start sharing intelligence with the Russians?

I really think this is within the realm of possibility. All in the name of achieving a "peaceful resolution," of course.

[LordMortis]

How long because Trump has Hegseth's Pentagon start sharing intelligence with the Russians?

I really think this is within the realm of possibility. All in the name of achieving a "peaceful resolution," of course.

I don't think he will. How long until this GOP Administration has assets sharing intelligence with the Russians? I'm guessing, since before they took office and now it's just getting more organized and easier to do.

[Skinypupy]

Utterly reprehensible, deplorable, and shameful.

Trump to revoke legal status of 250,000 Ukranians

This stain ain't ever coming out of the US. We are the baddies.

[Smoove_B]

Holy shit.

[El Guapo]

Utterly reprehensible, deplorable, and shameful.

Trump to revoke legal status of 250,000 Ukranians

This stain ain't ever coming out of the US. We are the baddies.

From reading the article it sounds like this is better and worse than that (more worse, really). I get the sense that it's not that Ukrainians are being specifically targeted for deportation, it's that Trump wants to get rid of all programs for temporary residency of those from conflict areas. So hundreds of thousands of Central Americans, 70K Afghans, etc. are all in danger of getting thrown out.

[Blackhawk]

How long because Trump has Hegseth's Pentagon start sharing intelligence with the Russians?

Let me go grab my novelty watch that runs backwards.

[Max Peck]

Utterly reprehensible, deplorable, and shameful.

Trump to revoke legal status of 250,000 Ukranians

This stain ain't ever coming out of the US. We are the baddies.

From reading the article it sounds like this is better and worse than that (more worse, really). I get the sense that it's not that Ukrainians are being specifically targeted for deportation, it's that Trump wants to get rid of all programs for temporary residency of those from conflict areas. So hundreds of thousands of Central Americans, 70K Afghans, etc. are all in danger of getting thrown out.

Explain the "better" part to me, like I'm 5 years old.

[raydude]

Utterly reprehensible, deplorable, and shameful.

Trump to revoke legal status of 250,000 Ukranians

This stain ain't ever coming out of the US. We are the baddies.

From reading the article it sounds like this is better and worse than that (more worse, really). I get the sense that it's not that Ukrainians are being specifically targeted for deportation, it's that Trump wants to get rid of all programs for temporary residency of those from conflict areas. So hundreds of thousands of Central Americans, 70K Afghans, etc. are all in danger of getting thrown out.

Explain the "better" part to me, like I'm 5 years old.

I read the part about the Afghans, in particular the one Afghanian who helped the US and as such had to flee the country and reside here. I think the message is going to be pretty clear to the rest of the world - never ever help the US when they ask for it. They won't have your back.

[Unagi]

Utterly reprehensible, deplorable, and shameful.

Trump to revoke legal status of 250,000 Ukranians

This stain ain't ever coming out of the US. We are the baddies.

From reading the article it sounds like this is better and worse than that (more worse, really). I get the sense that it's not that Ukrainians are being specifically targeted for deportation, it's that Trump wants to get rid of all programs for temporary residency of those from conflict areas. So hundreds of thousands of Central Americans, 70K Afghans, etc. are all in danger of getting thrown out.

Explain the "better" part to me, like I'm 5 years old.

Look, if you can spray a little "Equal Opportunity" onto something, it's better than the one you didn't - got it, Jimmy?

/shrug

[Isgrimnur]

How long because Trump has Hegseth's Pentagon start sharing intelligence with the Russians?

Let me go grab my novelty watch that runs backwards.

[Blackhawk]

Nope, that one still tells future time. To answer the question of how long it will be until Trump shares intel with Russia, I need the one that actually runs in reverse.

If Trump hasn't outright shard intel behind the scenes, then he did so vicariously through EOs and what Musk has been doing in opening all of the doors to all of our agencies.

At this point, it's the smart move to assume that that even if we aren't actively feeding it to Russia, any and all intel we possess is potentially compromised.

[Unagi]

Nope, that one still tells future time.

How can you possibly know that watch doesn't run backwards from a still photo?

I demand the entire post be rejected on its thesis statement.

[Blackhawk]

Nope, that one still tells future time.

How can you possibly know that watch doesn't run backwards from a still photo?

I demand the entire post be rejected on its thesis statement.

I specifically said a watch that runs backwards. If that one does turn the hands backwards, then the time still runs forwards due to the number order. And if the hands move clockwise, then they're not running backwards. While you may argue (rightfully) about the ambiguity of the word 'backwards', either interpretation means that the suggested timepiece is a half-measure.

Rejection denied.

[Unagi]

Maybe it doesn't even move at all but announces the time audibly. You! Don't! Know!

[Blackhawk]

Maybe it doesn't even move at all but announces the time audibly. You! Don't! Know!

This is harassment, and I demand... wait...

Does it announce it in Goofy's voice?

[Unagi]

UhHuH'!, why it suuure does.

[Unagi]

(did I do that well) ?

[WYBaugh]

gawrsh

[Hyena]

UhHuH'!, why it suuure does.

I TOTALLY read that in his voice.

[El Guapo]

Utterly reprehensible, deplorable, and shameful.

Trump to revoke legal status of 250,000 Ukranians

This stain ain't ever coming out of the US. We are the baddies.

From reading the article it sounds like this is better and worse than that (more worse, really). I get the sense that it's not that Ukrainians are being specifically targeted for deportation, it's that Trump wants to get rid of all programs for temporary residency of those from conflict areas. So hundreds of thousands of Central Americans, 70K Afghans, etc. are all in danger of getting thrown out.

Explain the "better" part to me, like I'm 5 years old.

Skinypupy's post made me think that Trump was specifically targeting Ukrainians for expulsion, which would be taking his pro-Russia anti-Ukraine animus to a whole new level. The "good" news (such as it is), is that I don't think he is. The bad news (which is much worse) is that he's expelling hundreds of thousands of more people of all sorts of nationalities.

[naednek]

latest figures had USA at 43% of the total military support to Ukraine, and is the single largest individual contributor. European countries as a whole give more aid than the US. Then there's humanitarian aid which is about as much in money, where Europe is also the biggest donor.

[Victoria Raverna]

Musk's Grok AI estimated that Trump is very likely (75%-86%) a Putin's compromised asset: