El Guapo wrote: Wed Jul 22, 2020 1:56 pm
It just seems like for a decent-sized school, even if the school does everything right, at least one parent or kid in the school community is going to contract coronavirus. And that's not necessarily through the school. And when that happens, what does the school do? Essentially by definition that parent will have had contact with their kid, and that kid will have had contact through the school with a huge chunk of the school population. So does the school shut down at that point, at least temporarily? If so, opening at all seems temporary and mostly pointless. If not, then it seems like we're inevitably creating major disease vectors.
That is exactly the plan for our school district. Two infections in 14 days means a cluster and they shut er' down for a couple of weeks for deep cleaning and go back again in theory. It's nutso.
I don't have kids, but my girlfriend is a pediatric occupational therapist and talks to a lot of parents. The craziest local plan I have heard is that everyone goes back to school, but if there is a positive case they shut down the school . . . for 5 days. And then go right back to waiting for the next infection, which presumably will appear 5-9 days later.
President Trump on 5/18" wrote:REOPEN OUR COUNTRY!
Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint
Posted: Wed Jul 22, 2020 2:58 pm
by Combustible Lemur
Skinypupy wrote:We got all our info yesterday, and have to make our live/virtual decision by the 31st. The district has some good protocols in place for going back in person...none of which I can see surviving the first 10 minutes of the day with 800 elementary school kids.
Wanted to reiterate this.
There are lots of good ideas that lots of hard working people are trying to implement. But it seems from where I sit, the anti science political pressure is making people make foolish compromises.
From a teaching standpoint consistency is super important. You can get away with some strange things if you're consistent. Kids REALLY do crave order and predictability. So the idea of making a system that only works as a best case. Rather than planning for the worst and rewarding surpassing expectations, is very counterintuitive for me as an instructor. Bring in the kids twice a week in 50% sets and do virtual the rest. If we can do that without outbreaks or at least with contact traced flairs for six weeks or twelve. Great! Ramp up. But the cram the whole school in for extended time initially with the underlying knowledge that it is almost certainly going to lead to additional mitigation to my eyes is creating more trouble.
Granted, I've always been a turtle strategist in everything. The zerg approach has always been hard for me.
In other Texas news, camp exposure leads to positive COVID cases:
Keystone Church in Keller, Texas, took a group of 300 teens to Latham Springs Camp in Aquilla, about 75 miles south of Fort Worth, from July 6-10 and had plans in place to keep students and staff safe.
"I'm angry," said Stephanie Brady of Keller, whose 17-year-old daughter tested positive after returning from camp.
From what I can surmise, it sounds like the camp had little (if any) formal protection plans in place. Here the term "camp" is being used quite loosely (imho) and what they did here is explicitly prohibited under NJ executive orders (mainly the off-site trip).
Regarding the schools, I suspect schools will be open for 2-3 weeks, at most. At some point a child will get a fever and congestion and there will be panic and closures. And then much consternation over what to do. I understand why parents are looking to send kids back. I cannot thought-experiment a plan that adequately addresses all potentially affected parties.
Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint
Posted: Wed Jul 22, 2020 3:43 pm
by Enough
Smoove_B wrote: Wed Jul 22, 2020 3:40 pm
That picture is amazing, thanks for posting it.
In other Texas news, camp scenario leads to positive COVID cases:
Keystone Church in Keller, Texas, took a group of 300 teens to Latham Springs Camp in Aquilla, about 75 miles south of Fort Worth, from July 6-10 and had plans in place to keep students and staff safe.
"I'm angry," said Stephanie Brady of Keller, whose 17-year-old daughter tested positive after returning from camp.
From what I can surmise, it sounds like the camp had little (if any) formal protection plans in place. Here the term "camp" is being used quite loosely (imho) and what they did here is explicitly prohibited under NJ executive orders (mainly the off-site trip).
The Missouri Christian summer camp Kanakuk, which is now in its 94th year of operation, likes to declare every year its “Best Summer Ever.” This year, that title will be tough to claim. Camp sessions opened on May 30 with an impressive roster of new safety measures in place, including new low-contact drop-off procedures, new air filtration systems, daily temperature checks, quarantine protocols, and more. But on June 26, the camp notified parents by email that there were two positive COVID-19 cases at K-2, one of its six camp locations. Over the next few days, the number of diagnoses climbed to 82. K-2 shut down, and parents from 10 states scrambled to pick up their children early.
Kanakuk reassured parents in part by touting the state’s approval for its summer plans. “The Missouri Governor Mike Parson has given our opening his blessing, and said he was ‘totally impressed’ with our COVID-19 Kamper Care Plan,” the camp emailed parents on May 5. (The governor’s office did not respond to a request to confirm the camp’s account.) In a video posted to the camp’s website at the same time, Joe White, who has owned the camp since 1976, said he was confident in the camp’s precautions. “As a 71-year-old man with compromised health issues, as well as a grandfather of 15 grandkids of my own,” he said, “I feel deeply the concerns that both the knowns and unknowns bring to a youth care ministry such as Kanakuk.”
Some parents say the camp has been incommunicative with them as the outbreak spread. “There was 0 communication or efforts made from Kanakuk to contact us regarding the closure. Nothing!” one Texas parent, Mia Chase, wrote to the camp’s president and health services, according to NBC News. Chase told NBC that campers were assembled in a single large group to receive the news about the diagnoses, furthering their exposure. She said kids gathered again that same night for a “mosh-pit-style” dance party, where not everyone wore their masks or the Kanakuk-branded “face buffs” they received on arrival at camp. The camp has made few public statements about the outbreak, and its communications office did not respond to multiple interview requests. Last summer, the camp’s Twitter account tweeted every day in June. This year, the camp’s main Twitter account did not tweet between June 1 and July 1, and the account for K-2 has not tweeted since June 1. When a rumor spread last week that a positive case had been diagnosed at K-1, another camp location, a camp representative declined to answer questions and asked a local news reporter to leave the property.
Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint
Posted: Wed Jul 22, 2020 3:58 pm
by Smoove_B
Wow - I did not. Hasn't been circulating in my media circles (that I can recall). Thanks!
El Guapo wrote: Wed Jul 22, 2020 1:56 pm
It just seems like for a decent-sized school, even if the school does everything right, at least one parent or kid in the school community is going to contract coronavirus. And that's not necessarily through the school. And when that happens, what does the school do? Essentially by definition that parent will have had contact with their kid, and that kid will have had contact through the school with a huge chunk of the school population. So does the school shut down at that point, at least temporarily? If so, opening at all seems temporary and mostly pointless. If not, then it seems like we're inevitably creating major disease vectors.
That is exactly the plan for our school district. Two infections in 14 days means a cluster and they shut er' down for a couple of weeks for deep cleaning and go back again in theory. It's nutso.
I don't have kids, but my girlfriend is a pediatric occupational therapist and talks to a lot of parents. The craziest local plan I have heard is that everyone goes back to school, but if there is a positive case they shut down the school . . . for 5 days. And then go right back to waiting for the next infection, which presumably will appear 5-9 days later.
Every day they send a random kid home with the school gun, but there's only one bullet in the chamber. One trigger pull is mandatory.
Mathematically, each family's odds would be better than this plan.
Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint
Posted: Wed Jul 22, 2020 4:15 pm
by malchior
Smoove_B wrote: Wed Jul 22, 2020 3:40 pm
In other Texas news, camp exposure leads to positive COVID cases
“You would have hoped that everybody would have at least kept masks on, but in so many of the pictures, there were no masks. They considered their small groups, 40, which was how many in her cabin,” Brady said.
Krissy Askins, who lives near the church, said the city, county and church leadership should inform the community how many kids tested positive.
40 in each cabin?!?
Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint
Posted: Wed Jul 22, 2020 4:20 pm
by LordMortis
I guess that is the difference between a state contract tracing and publishing and a state proclaiming "your kids will get COVID 19 and that's OK". I do wonder how many Missouri public school professionals will show up to work in September because, well, fuck that noise. Teachers ought be thankful they have among the last of the unions in the US. Now is the time to act on behalf of all your school career brethren (and sestren?) What we are asking of these people is NUTS N-V-T-S NUTS.
You want to put your family at risk, that's the way we've run the nation forever. Right or wrong. You demand that your right to put your family at risk also puts others at risk, not so much.
Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint
Posted: Wed Jul 22, 2020 5:02 pm
by Freyland
LordMortis wrote: Wed Jul 22, 2020 4:20 pm
I guess that is the difference between a state contract tracing and publishing and a state proclaiming "your kids will get COVID 19 and that's OK". I do wonder how many Missouri public school professionals will show up to work in September because, well, fuck that noise. Teachers ought be thankful they have among the last of the unions in the US. Now is the time to act on behalf of all your school career brethren (and sestren?) What we are asking of these people is NUTS N-V-T-S NUTS.
You want to put your family at risk, that's the way we've run the nation forever. Right or wrong. You demand that your right to put your family at risk also puts others at risk, not so much.
N-V-T-S?
Just find a spelling error in a thread about teachers entertaining.
LordMortis wrote: Wed Jul 22, 2020 4:20 pm
I guess that is the difference between a state contract tracing and publishing and a state proclaiming "your kids will get COVID 19 and that's OK". I do wonder how many Missouri public school professionals will show up to work in September because, well, fuck that noise. Teachers ought be thankful they have among the last of the unions in the US. Now is the time to act on behalf of all your school career brethren (and sestren?) What we are asking of these people is NUTS N-V-T-S NUTS.
You want to put your family at risk, that's the way we've run the nation forever. Right or wrong. You demand that your right to put your family at risk also puts others at risk, not so much.
N-V-T-S?
Just find a spelling error in a thread about teachers entertaining.
Just find a spelling error in a thread about teachers entertaining.
It's a line from History of the World I can't shake.
Spoiler:
Edit: BAM!
Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint
Posted: Wed Jul 22, 2020 5:07 pm
by Isgrimnur
Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint
Posted: Wed Jul 22, 2020 6:57 pm
by Blackhawk
Well, Indiana finally gave a mask mandate. The Governor simultaneously announced that it would be a class-B felony to not wear one, then stated that they wouldn't enforce it.
Still, it is better than nothing. It will help stores enforce their policies (they can now shift blame to the state.) It won't have any impact on the anti-maskers, but it might have an impact on the casually mask-lazy who just don't want to bother, but aren't willing to violate the law for it. One positive is that it will apply to schools, too (the Governor stated that outright.) That means that my kids' school administrator who refused to act like a grown-up just had that choice taken away from her (and yet she still has the playgrounds open for the elementary school...)
El Guapo wrote: Wed Jul 22, 2020 1:56 pm
It just seems like for a decent-sized school, even if the school does everything right, at least one parent or kid in the school community is going to contract coronavirus. And that's not necessarily through the school. And when that happens, what does the school do? Essentially by definition that parent will have had contact with their kid, and that kid will have had contact through the school with a huge chunk of the school population. So does the school shut down at that point, at least temporarily? If so, opening at all seems temporary and mostly pointless. If not, then it seems like we're inevitably creating major disease vectors.
That is exactly the plan for our school district. Two infections in 14 days means a cluster and they shut er' down for a couple of weeks for deep cleaning and go back again in theory. It's nutso.
I don't have kids, but my girlfriend is a pediatric occupational therapist and talks to a lot of parents. The craziest local plan I have heard is that everyone goes back to school, but if there is a positive case they shut down the school . . . for 5 days. And then go right back to waiting for the next infection, which presumably will appear 5-9 days later.
Is that Allen ISD's policy?
In Wylie they aren't requiring masks inside the school or on busses. Pretty much made our decision for us right there. We HATE the idea of another semester of virtual learning but we just can't with these guidelines. Really sucks because our oldest is transitioning to a new school this year and we really want him to be there on Day One. This is all so incredibly frustrating
Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint
Posted: Wed Jul 22, 2020 11:06 pm
by YellowKing
Blackhawk wrote:Still, it is better than nothing. It will help stores enforce their policies (they can now shift blame to the state.) It won't have any impact on the anti-maskers, but it might have an impact on the casually mask-lazy who just don't want to bother, but aren't willing to violate the law for it.
Just anecdotally, it's made a HUGE difference in NC. I've seen mask wearing go from 20% or so to 99% in most stores I've visited. Most people want to follow the rules and not cause a stir, and I think it even gives anti-maskers a way to save face (no pun intended).
Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint
Posted: Thu Jul 23, 2020 7:09 am
by Paingod
Blackhawk wrote: Wed Jul 22, 2020 6:57 pmWell, Indiana finally gave a mask mandate. The Governor simultaneously announced that it would be a class-B felony to not wear one, then stated that they wouldn't enforce it.
Stay with me here... If this is a Class B felony, which may include crimes such as use of a deadly weapon, sex crimes involving children or any crime involving a vulnerable or elderly victim, gang crimes, and hate crimes ... punishable by 6 to 20 years in prison ... then it seems as though use of deadly force to protect the public may be warranted given the severity being assigned to it. Did the Governor just declare open season on non-mask wearers?
McConnell at a lunch meeting Tuesday with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, White House chief of staff Mark Meadows and Republican senators told colleagues he wants to keep the size of the next package at $1 trillion. But that hasn’t satisfied some Tea Party Republicans.
Cruz declared he is a “hell no” on McConnell’s emerging coronavirus relief proposal. He said Republicans “sadly” envision McConnell’s bill as “an opening gambit,” predicting it will soon balloon in cost.
“This is the swamp in a feeding frenzy. Everybody’s lobbyist has their hand out, saying, ‘Look, if you’re spending trillions of dollars, I want to get some.’ And it’s not right,” he said.
Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint
Posted: Thu Jul 23, 2020 9:34 am
by Smoove_B
And a story that will surprise no one, ~20 teens test positive in NJ after an alleged house party:
A coronavirus cluster in Monmouth County in which about 20 young adults were infected with COVID-19 has been linked to a party in Middletown, authorities said.
...
The local health department said it was conducting contact tracing to narrow down the extent of the cluster.
However, “responsiveness has been less than satisfactory, with many refusing to answer our question,” the health department said.
This virus will not Kid and Play.
Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint
Posted: Thu Jul 23, 2020 9:35 am
by Paingod
Smoove_B wrote: Thu Jul 23, 2020 9:27 amCruz declared he is a “hell no” on McConnell’s emerging coronavirus relief proposal. He said Republicans “sadly” envision McConnell’s bill as “an opening gambit,” predicting it will soon balloon in cost.
“This is the swamp in a feeding frenzy. Everybody’s lobbyist has their hand out, saying, ‘Look, if you’re spending trillions of dollars, I want to get some.’ And it’s not right,” he said.
Secret Politician Code: I've already paid back my lobbyists whom I'm hoping will forgive me for needing to appear strong.
Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint
Posted: Thu Jul 23, 2020 9:51 am
by LawBeefaroni
Southwest Airlines CEO Gary Kelly just now on CNBC:
I have no problem with a mask mandate, I just don't think it should be only for air travel. Let's mandate masks. I mean you have to wear pants, why can't we mandate that you have to wear a mask in a pandemic? I think it's broader than air travel...you outta be wearing it everywhere.
Which got me wondering, when will we see the first mask burning?
Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint
Posted: Thu Jul 23, 2020 10:14 am
by Smoove_B
LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Jul 23, 2020 9:51 amWhich got me wondering, when will we see the first mask burning?
I think it was back in June, though maybe there were earlier events.
Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint
Posted: Thu Jul 23, 2020 10:24 am
by Unagi
Aren't our Speed Limits also a good example of where people are legally forced to do something, for public safety?
Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint
Posted: Thu Jul 23, 2020 10:28 am
by LawBeefaroni
Unagi wrote: Thu Jul 23, 2020 10:24 am
Aren't our Speed Limits also a good example of where people are legally forced to do something, for public safety?
They are also routinely ignored so I'm not sure anyone is actually forced.
Unagi wrote: Thu Jul 23, 2020 10:24 am
Aren't our Speed Limits also a good example of where people are legally forced to do something, for public safety?
They are also routinely ignored so I'm not sure anyone is actually forced.
Yes and no...
I mean, when someone says 'You can't force me to wear a mask!', I would think you could point out that "We also can't force you to drive 30 mph through a school zone, or stop at a Stop Sign, but it's still the law, and there are good reasons they are in place."
I'm not saying it will change anyone's mind, but it seems like a good thing to point out.
(For instance, I wouldn't dare bring up Helmet Laws...)
Smoove_B wrote: Thu Jul 23, 2020 9:34 am
alleged house party
"Trevor called it a house party, but it was really just a bunch of losers on the couch with an Xbox."
Saw a dozen later age teenagers walking in very close proximity, behaving like teenagers do on the sidewalk on the drive home from work yesterday. If they were carrying masks for their eventual destination for from where they came from, they were squished in pockets somewhere. My local municipality was averaging more than a death a day through most of June.
I just want to say has Zaxxon mentioned, we're fucked?
A vaccine that I won't take until it's been around for a while can't get here fast enough. When school starts and WE MUST OPEN THE ECONOMY and we MUST OPEN THE CLASSROOMS (except for private and religious classrooms for reasons that are yet to be explained to me while I can only assume this is where the lobbying to open is coming from) all hell is going to break loose before October.
Unagi wrote: Thu Jul 23, 2020 10:24 am
Aren't our Speed Limits also a good example of where people are legally forced to do something, for public safety?
They are also routinely ignored so I'm not sure anyone is actually forced.
Yes and no...
I mean, when someone says 'You can't force me to wear a mask!', I would think you could point out that "We also can't force you to drive 30 mph through a school zone, or stop at a Stop Sign, but it's still the law, and there are good reasons they are in place."
I'm not saying it will change anyone's mind, but it seems like a good thing to point out.
(For instance, I wouldn't dare bring up Helmet Laws...)
If someone is virulently anti-mask, especially now, then no appeal to reason is going to matter.
Blackhawk wrote: Wed Jul 22, 2020 6:57 pmWell, Indiana finally gave a mask mandate. The Governor simultaneously announced that it would be a class-B felony to not wear one, then stated that they wouldn't enforce it.
Stay with me here... If this is a Class B felony, which may include crimes such as use of a deadly weapon, sex crimes involving children or any crime involving a vulnerable or elderly victim, gang crimes, and hate crimes ... punishable by 6 to 20 years in prison ... then it seems as though use of deadly force to protect the public may be warranted given the severity being assigned to it. Did the Governor just declare open season on non-mask wearers?
Oops. Class B misdemeanor. Typey bad. Words mixed.
Although I suppose COVID-19 is a deadly weapon, and does involve vulnerable and elderly victims...
Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint
Posted: Thu Jul 23, 2020 11:48 am
by Blackhawk
In other news, the Indiana AG is challenging the Governor on the mask mandate.
Sigh.
Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint
Posted: Thu Jul 23, 2020 11:54 am
by Paingod
LordMortis wrote: Thu Jul 23, 2020 11:34 amall hell is going to break loose before October.
Aye. What's blowing my mind is how "normal" keeps chasing the curve of the virus.
Back in March, people would have been pants-shitting horrified and running around in panic, screaming with their arms in the air, if we were reporting 1000 deaths per day from the pandemic.
Today, though, it's almost business as usual. Let's see what else we can open up. Maybe send the kids into the line of fire. That'll play out well. We don't really have enough statistics to know what kind of permanent damage the virus will do to them, or if it'll weaken them enough to kill them the second or third time they get infected - so let's get to generating that data... right?
From what I've read, this plague's antibodies last maybe a year in the human body if their predictions based on observable data play out accurately. That means we're living with it as a permanent fixture in global society. Vaccine or no, as long as there are anti-vaxxers preventing complete eradication, the disease will carry on killing year after year.
If that's all true, in upcoming years we'll see two statistics. Flu deaths per year and COVID deaths per year. It'll become a new line of data in every report... and life will get back to normal. There will just be fewer people each year in that normal.
Retirement plans should come standard with investments in face masks and vaccination needles if you want to make it through your golden years.
Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint
Posted: Thu Jul 23, 2020 12:04 pm
by Kurth
Paingod wrote: Thu Jul 23, 2020 11:54 am
If that's all true, in upcoming years we'll see two statistics. Flu deaths per year and COVID deaths per year. It'll become a new line of data in every report... and life will get back to normal. There will just be fewer people each year in that normal.
Is this necessarily a bad thing? Guess it all depends on what those statistics are.
Paingod wrote: Thu Jul 23, 2020 11:54 am
If that's all true, in upcoming years we'll see two statistics. Flu deaths per year and COVID deaths per year. It'll become a new line of data in every report... and life will get back to normal. There will just be fewer people each year in that normal.
Is this necessarily a bad thing? Guess it all depends on what those statistics are.
It depends but signs point to yes it'd be bad. If we can't eradicate it and it continues to hit this hard it'll likely be society changing. A lot of folks focuses on the death count but the soft effects are significant as well. Even when folks don't die it hospitalizes a significant amount of people, otherwise healthy people, and may have long-term health impacts. Maybe we have to get used to that but it'll have serious impact on how we live.
Paingod wrote: Thu Jul 23, 2020 11:54 am
If that's all true, in upcoming years we'll see two statistics. Flu deaths per year and COVID deaths per year. It'll become a new line of data in every report... and life will get back to normal. There will just be fewer people each year in that normal.
Is this necessarily a bad thing? Guess it all depends on what those statistics are.
It depends but signs point to yes it'd be bad. If we can't eradicate it and it continues to hit this hard it'll likely be society changing. A lot of folks focuses on the death count but the soft effects are significant as well. Even when folks don't die it hospitalizes a significant amount of people, otherwise healthy people, and may have long-term health impacts. Maybe we have to get used to that but it'll have serious impact on how we live.
If you get a chance listen to RadioLab, they've been doing an excellent series on looking at the pandemic through different lenses. The one on the 1918 pandemic is life changing, it is unreal how much of impact on society it had/still has and I suspect COVID will have a similar path of unexpected and expected impacts on the meta level on society that will be absolutely huge.
Paingod wrote: Thu Jul 23, 2020 11:54 am
If that's all true, in upcoming years we'll see two statistics. Flu deaths per year and COVID deaths per year. It'll become a new line of data in every report... and life will get back to normal. There will just be fewer people each year in that normal.
Is this necessarily a bad thing? Guess it all depends on what those statistics are.
It depends but signs point to yes it'd be bad. If we can't eradicate it and it continues to hit this hard it'll likely be society changing. A lot of folks focuses on the death count but the soft effects are significant as well. Even when folks don't die it hospitalizes a significant amount of people, otherwise healthy people, and may have long-term health impacts. Maybe we have to get used to that but it'll have serious impact on how we live.
Agreed. But, stating the obvious, it's already having incredibly serious impacts on how we live. I suppose, the real question is to what extent we can minimize those impacts going forward and how best to achieve that.
Living in OR where the impact has been one of the mildest in the nation so far, I still find myself puzzled by people who are vehemently insisting that we need to take every precaution in order to prevent new cases of the virus because that's the only way we'll get back to normal, pre-COVID19 life. I just think they're going to be disappointed when they realize there really is no going back. This thing is likely to be with us for the foreseeable future, no matter how much we're willing to live with severe lock down policies.
So, do smart, reasonable, rational things now to minimize long term impacts, but the goal shouldn't be to eliminate long term impacts. That doesn't seem realistic.
