Octopus Overlords

Posted: **Fri May 23, 2014 5:21 pm**

LawBeefaroni wrote: Which is essentially market timing, right?

No, because it makes no predictions about tomorrow.

Buffett is a great investor and a great role model for investors and that's decent advice, of course. But he can be greedy when others are fearful because he absolutely cannot lose. He gets BAC warrants at pennies on the marked-to-market-dollar. He makes millions before the ink is even dry.

Now he does. Not when he was building the company.

Posted: **Sat May 24, 2014 10:38 am**

noxiousdog wrote:
LawBeefaroni wrote: Which is essentially market timing, right?
No, because it makes no predictions about tomorrow.

When you decide to spend buy with your cash or add more to the pile, you are making a prediction about tomorrow.

Posted: **Sat May 24, 2014 11:56 am**

LawBeefaroni wrote:
noxiousdog wrote:
LawBeefaroni wrote: Which is essentially market timing, right?
No, because it makes no predictions about tomorrow.

When you decide to spend buy with your cash or add more to the pile, you are making a prediction about tomorrow.

Clarifying: market timing is making a short term prediction. Asset balancing makes a prediction about the long term.

Posted: **Fri Jun 13, 2014 1:04 pm**

LawBeefaroni wrote:Really bad day for tech, picked the wrong time to play an IGT bounce (May $14 calls at $0.10 yesterday).

Well shit. I had 30 of these May $14 calls at $.09. After getting screwed by IGT in April and May, I let them expire and didn't get more. I was hoping for some kind of M&A action or Patti Hart (worst CEO I can think of right now) to get ousted. Didn't happen. Until 3 weeks later. The Junes just hit $2.20, probably could have had another 30 calls for around $400 in May which would have been $6,000 today. I need to stick with my convictions a bit more.

Posted: **Thu Jun 26, 2014 6:06 pm**

Hmm... GoPro IPO bounces 30%:

However, GoPro's growth appears to be slowing.

While the company's 2013 revenue quadrupled to $986 million, its first-quarter sales dipped slightly. Profits declined year-over-year to $11 million from $23 million in the first quarter.

The biggest risk facing GoPro is the threat a deep-pocketed rival will develop technology that tops its imaging and memory capabilities. Tech giants like Google (GOOG) are increasingly moving into the wearable gadget space with products that have built-in cameras.

Still, Menlow said: "First into a market usually gets the largest market share."

Biggest risk? I'll be honest, I don't think GoPro will be around in 10 years. I think this is like being the only goldfish in the sink while the water is running out. They may be better, but I really believe that cell phone video is going to eat their lunch down the road and more likely sooner than later.

This almost strikes me as a pre-emptive "lets take the money while it's there" IPO. Another Zynga instead of Facebook, if you will.

Posted: **Thu Jul 03, 2014 8:00 am**

My goodness. Does anyone see any compelling buys? I am impatiently sitting on about 18% cash right now (thanks to several recent sales), but I also know that relatively, the market is a bit spendy. Hate the thought of trying to time the market, but it sure would be sweet to have this much available when the market makes its next big dip.

I also am not crazy about trying to find things that don't appear to be richly valued currently - that's no small task. Considering buying another emerging market fund, but I already have quite a bit of exposure there.

I didn't pull the trigger on Tesla when I mentioned it above, and now I wish I had. I did buy Amazon though, in a big way...and am currently very happy with that decision. That particular stock, though, like EXC (Exelon) and SID (Brazilian National Steel Co), I plan to hold for a looooong time...just forget I have them for a few years.

Considering:
NUE (Nucor Steel) Domestic steel mfr. but man I already have tons of steel exposure currently.
PBR (Petrobras) Brazilian national oil company.
APO (Apollo Global Mgmt) Already have some of this, but considering buying more here.
CHK (Chesapeake Energy) Owned this previously, but now under new, less controversial management.

I don't feel particularly strongly about any of these, except maybe APO. Maybe some more Amazon.

Posted: **Thu Jul 03, 2014 10:23 am**

I have a conference call every Monday evening with some friends to bounce ideas off of each other. Only two of us made it on Monday but we identified the following opportunities:
ORCL August calls. I liked the $44s, my friend went with the $45s.
XONE July bullish put spread. I didn't hop on this but XONE went from $40 to $48 the very next day. I think it's still an OK play with options being as expensive as they are for XONE. Recent put spreads in AMZN and SPLK worked out well so we're keeping with the idea.

Stuff we're watching for an opportunity:
KNDI (personally I'm thinking of shorting/getting puts at around $15 depending on the news).
INO
WAG/CVS
SDRL
EXAS
MU
BPOP
NOV

Stuff I need to research:
ABTL
OMED
IBCP

We were thinking about shorting SPY/QQQ in early June but one of the guys, at TA guy, said that the hardest aversion to overcome is to get long in an overbought market. It seemed overbought then and even moreso now but, as another guy likes to say, markets can stay irrational far longer than you can stay solvent. So the hard trade right now is to stay long. But I'm sticking to staying long only in short bursts (well, except for my "professionally" managed stuff).

Posted: **Thu Jul 03, 2014 10:24 am**

Carpet_pissr wrote:I didn't pull the trigger on Tesla when I mentioned it above, and now I wish I had.

Fire sale (figuratively this time) on TSLA today.

Posted: **Thu Jul 03, 2014 10:50 am**

Zaxxon wrote:
Carpet_pissr wrote:I didn't pull the trigger on Tesla when I mentioned it above, and now I wish I had.
Fire sale (figuratively this time) on TSLA today.

? -1.8%? That's not even a trim around the ears!

I am thinking more like $200, or better still, $190's range, but as mentioned much earlier here, the time to buy (IMO) was at the end of May when it dropped to $180.

Posted: **Thu Jul 03, 2014 10:54 am**

When I posted, it was down 9% from Monday afternoon.

The real time to buy was in fire madness time in late 2013 when it was $120. That was a ginormous drop for an issue that was clearly completely ridiculous to any rational observer.

Posted: **Thu Jul 03, 2014 11:09 am**

Zaxxon wrote:When I posted, it was down 9% from Monday afternoon.

The real time to buy was in fire madness time in late 2013 when it was $120. That was a ginormous drop for an issue that was clearly completely ridiculous to any rational observer.

Yeah, I try not to dwell on those kinds of historical "what if I had bought this in XXXX?!" scenarios, as that path only leads to mental anguish.

BUT, every once in a while, I do mentally kick myself for not buying Amazon many years ago when I was seriously considering it. The annual returns v. S&P are pretty disgusting.

http://tinyurl.com/lkrpotw

For those who can't play along at home, the ten year period ending today for the S&P is about 78% vs. 596% for AMZN.

Posted: **Thu Jul 03, 2014 11:11 am**

Yes, they sure are. I had the fortune of happening into a local Tesla gallary in late 2012, driving the car and doing my research in early 2013, resulting in some TSLA purchase in 4/2013.

That's worked out well so far.

Posted: **Thu Jul 03, 2014 11:18 am**

Zaxxon wrote: TSLA purchase in 4/2013.

That's worked out well so far.

Noice!

Posted: **Thu Jul 03, 2014 11:24 am**

CP, that URL is breaking the margins. Can you put it in a tag with a short name?

Posted: **Thu Jul 03, 2014 12:12 pm**

Carpet_pissr wrote:My goodness. Does anyone see any compelling buys?

I subscribe to a newsletter that is fairly conservative (based on a historical yield + some safety measures). However, it has given me the following returns:

Code: Select all

Company    Purchase Date  Annualized Return
CVX        Jan 2014       21.49%
HD         Dec 2006       22%
JNJ        Jun 2009       20%
MCD        Jan 2008       19%
WMT        May 2006       13%
XOM        Jun 2010       20%

Their top ten current recommendations:
CVX
APA
CVS
ABT
OXY
KO
XOM
T
LOW
TJX

Posted: **Thu Jul 03, 2014 12:23 pm**

What is that letter? I'm still looking for an entry point and eduction sometime in the not too distant future. I figure the house should be paid off soon, I'm maxing my 401k beginning this year and setting enough aside to max a Roth IRA for the 2014 tax year. Going forward, my current goal is to start "investing" non retirement money after I rebuild enough of a savings to able to pay cash for a new car at will in reserve. I should learn how to invest before that time comes.

Posted: **Thu Jul 03, 2014 12:40 pm**

noxiousdog wrote:
Their top ten current recommendations:
CVX
APA
CVS
ABT
OXY
KO
XOM
T
LOW
TJX

Looks like my 401K.

Off the top of my head here's how I'd categorize them:
CVX (Energy - Oil Gas)
APA (Energy - Oil Gas
CVS (Consumer retail - Ubiquity)
ABT (Pharma/Medical supplies)
OXY (Energy - Oil Gas)
KO (Consumer goods - staples)
XOM (Energy - Oil Gas)
T (Communications)
LOW (Consumer retail - Big Box)
TJX (Consumer retail - Discount)

The only one I'd personally trade(as opposed to accumulate in a retirement account) right now is ABT. Jan 2016 options seem cheap right now. I'd have to look deeper to see if there's something I'm missing but $42 calls are $3.15.

Posted: **Thu Jul 03, 2014 12:47 pm**

LordMortis wrote:What is that letter? I'm still looking for an entry point and eduction sometime in the not too distant future. I figure the house should be paid off soon, I'm maxing my 401k beginning this year and setting enough aside to max a Roth IRA for the 2014 tax year. Going forward, my current goal is to start "investing" non retirement money after I rebuild enough of a savings to able to pay cash for a new car at will in reserve. I should learn how to invest before that time comes.

IQ trends. It's not cheap. If you ever want to know their top ten just pm me. That should be fair use.

Posted: **Thu Jul 03, 2014 12:58 pm**

I am sure as the time approaches I will attack you and lawbeef for more and more information. I need much more of a basic understanding of what it means to do something like open a Scott Trade account and throwing money at "the market" before the time comes to do it, so my curiosity is more about looking at what why they say this is the top ten but just buying stuff. Especially when you are happily pulling down about 2 to 4 times what my conservative goals would be. 10 - 20% a year since 2006. That's salivating risk money to me.

Posted: **Thu Jul 03, 2014 1:04 pm**

LordMortis wrote:I am sure as the time approaches I will attack you and lawbeef for more and more information. I need much more of a basic understanding of what it means to do something like open a Scott Trade account and throwing money at "the market" before the time comes to do it, so my curiosity is more about looking at what why they say this is the top ten but just buying stuff. Especially when you are happily pulling down about 2 to 4 times what my conservative goals would be. 10 - 20% a year since 2006. That's salivating risk money to me.

Their screen is pretty straight forward. In order to qualify:
1. Dividend increases 5 times in the last 12 years
2. S&P Quality Ranking in the “A” category
3. At least 5,000,000 shares outstanding
4. At least 80 institutional investors
5. At least 25 years of uninterrupted dividends
6. Earnings improved in at least 7 of the last 12 years

Then they look at each companies historical yield and "The Timely Ten is comprised of stocks from the Undervalued category that generally have an S&P Dividend & Earnings Quality ranking of A- or better, a “G” designation for exemplary long-term dividend growth, a P/E ratio of 15 or less, a payout ratio of 50% or less (75% for Utilities), long-term debt-to-equity of 50% or less (75% for Utilities), and technical characteristics on the daily and weekly charts that suggest the potential for imminent capital appreciation."

Posted: **Fri Jul 04, 2014 8:38 am**

Isgrimnur wrote:CP, that URL is breaking the margins. Can you put it in a tag with a short name?

Done. Sorry.

And to cross ND's top ten with Morningstar "stars" - of those, the following have a 4 star rating (indicating probably a good price to buy in here) None of the ten have 5 stars, which considering the current average market valuation, is not unusual:

TJX
XOM
OXY

Thanks - always love being able to cross as many paid sources as possible to see what happens. I only have two currently, Morningstar, and Zacks, which are in some ways at odds with each other, M* focusing on long term and Zacks, 6 months or less.

It's interesting to see when the stars align for those two what can happen (i.e. when both indicate that a stock is a good buy) Doesn't happen often, but when it does I pay attention.

Posted: **Fri Jul 04, 2014 8:56 am**

Here's the list with last week's IBD's Composite Rating (1-99, with 99 being their highest):

CVX (Energy - Oil Gas) - 61
APA (Energy - Oil Gas) - 68
CVS (Consumer retail - Ubiquity) - 81
ABT (Pharma/Medical supplies) - 57
OXY (Energy - Oil Gas) - 75
KO (Consumer goods - staples) - 55
XOM (Energy - Oil Gas) - 64
T (Communications) - 54
LOW (Consumer retail - Big Box) - 48
TJX (Consumer retail - Discount) - 47

Keeping in mind that IBD's composite is based on EPS (growth), "Relative Strength" (12 month performance vs all other stocks), Sales+Margin+ROE, 3 month AC/D.

Posted: **Fri Jul 04, 2014 9:07 am**

LawBeefaroni wrote:Here's the list with last week's IBD's Composite Rating (1-99, with 99 being their highest):

CVX (Energy - Oil Gas) - 61
APA (Energy - Oil Gas) - 68
CVS (Consumer retail - Ubiquity) - 81
ABT (Pharma/Medical supplies) - 57
OXY (Energy - Oil Gas) - 75
KO (Consumer goods - staples) - 55
XOM (Energy - Oil Gas) - 64
T (Communications) - 54
LOW (Consumer retail - Big Box) - 48
TJX (Consumer retail - Discount) - 47

Keeping in mind that IBD's composite is based on EPS (growth), "Relative Strength" (12 month performance vs all other stocks), Sales+Margin+ROE, 3 month AC/D.

Excellent! Now just for the hell of it, I am going to buy OXY on Monday as a kind of experiment to see if our little trifecta of newsletters are on the money. I am not counting Zack's here, due to the shorter time frame generally considered, but if anyone is interested, OXY is currently listed as HOLD for short term (1-3 months I think is the frame), and NEUTRAL on the longer term, with a "target price" of $106.

Their reasoning for not being more bullish (though they list quite a few positives) is potential "stringent regulation, volatile commodity prices, and risks associated with exploration and production" which is pretty standard fare risk for such a company IMO.

Posted: **Fri Jul 04, 2014 9:17 am**

Carpet_pissr wrote: Excellent! Now just for the hell of it, I am going to buy OXY on Monday as a kind of experiment to see if our little trifecta of newsletters are on the money. I am not counting Zack's here, due to the shorter time frame generally considered, but if anyone is interested, OXY is currently listed as HOLD for short term (1-3 months I think is the frame), and NEUTRAL on the longer term, with a "target price" of $106.

Their reasoning for not being more bullish (though they list quite a few positives) is potential "stringent regulation, volatile commodity prices, and risks associated with exploration and production" which is pretty standard fare risk for such a company IMO.

Heh, now we just need some TA. BTW, even though I'm more just an "eyeballer", I love this site.

You might get a discount on OXY depending on Iraq news over the weekend. I think OXY's exposure there is overstated.

Posted: **Mon Jul 07, 2014 1:01 pm**

There is generally significant lag time in the IQ Trends stuff. CVX was the only thing that responded significantly within 6 months in my experience.

Posted: **Wed Jul 09, 2014 7:00 pm**

Stock up over 24,000% since June 17th. I'd love to know what's going on here, I'm sure it's all legit

.

Posted: **Mon Jul 14, 2014 2:32 pm**

DOS=HIGH wrote:Stock up over 24,000% since June 17th. I'd love to know what's going on here, I'm sure it's all legit .

Intially looked like a pump and dump, though there's an interesting theory that it was an engineered short squeeze.

As the article notes, the SEC is now paying attention and names will be named so we'll find out eventually.

Posted: **Mon Jul 14, 2014 3:12 pm**

Go Amazon, it's yer birfday!

Posted: **Wed Jul 23, 2014 6:12 pm**

Well then. PBYI almost TRIPLED today, going up $174.40 per share to $233.43 on positive breast cancer treatment news. Wow.

Posted: **Wed Jul 23, 2014 8:48 pm**

INO and KNDI were my big movers today.

pr0ner wrote:Well then. PBYI almost TRIPLED today, going up $174.40 per share to $233.43 on positive breast cancer treatment news. Wow.

Crazy news for PBYI. $100 August calls were $0.61 at the last trade before today. They're around $132 today. Low volume and open interest but if you had even one contract at $61 when you went to bed, today it would be worth $13,000. IOW, $500 would be around $110,000.

Posted: **Thu Jul 24, 2014 11:33 pm**

AMZN is down almost 11% in after hours training after posting massive 2nd quarter losses.

PBYI dropped almost 9% as some investors surely decided to take some profits after yesterday's skyrocket.

Posted: **Fri Jul 25, 2014 9:49 am**

pr0ner wrote:AMZN is down almost 11% in after hours training after posting massive 2nd quarter losses.

PBYI dropped almost 9% as some investors surely decided to take some profits after yesterday's skyrocket.

I strongly considered puts on PBYI, since after a run like that it was sure to fall off some. But I've got too many irons in the fire right now and a real job I have to pay attention to.

Posted: **Fri Jul 25, 2014 10:16 am**

Bittersweet result on Amazon for me, which highlights my personal biggest challenge as an investor - these short term blips shouldn't matter much if you are holding in a retirement account for 20 years! Yet after reading way too much opinion on why it's not a good hold even, right now, I sold it before the earnings report, making me feel more than a little bit dirty, and pushing me closer to the inevitable "maybe I should just buy funds and quite doing this" position (which I have actually started to do in the past year).

Currently 8% of portfolio in funds (one of them a bond fund, which is new for me), and sitting on 15% cash, WHICH I WILL NOT TOUCH UNTIL THE NEXT MAJOR CORRECTION. I am writing that here in all caps (because caps makes words IMPORTANT) for posterity, and as a reminder.

DO NOT TOUCH THE CASH. DO NOT TOUCH THE CASH.

I also fully plan to buy AMZN again (and TSLA) whenever that drop occurs (general market drop, not just AMZN itself)

Posted: **Fri Jul 25, 2014 10:22 am**

The radio was saying last night that AMZN expects to post a huge loss in Q3, too. I wonder if that news is going to drive the stock down even more prior to its inevitable drop on the Q3 reporting date.

Posted: **Fri Jul 25, 2014 11:16 am**

pr0ner wrote:The radio was saying last night that AMZN expects to post a huge loss in Q3, too. I wonder if that news is going to drive the stock down even more prior to its inevitable drop on the Q3 reporting date.

They gave guidance on the CC. Analysts will base their Q3 expectations on those numbers and people will buy or sell the stock based on how they think actual results will compare to those Q3 expectations. If Amazon beats those expections, the price may go up on earnings. At least that's how the short term trading will go.

For Q3 2014, we expect net sales of between $19.7 billion and $21.5 billion or growth of between 15% and 26%. This guidance anticipates approximately 120 basis points of favorable impact from foreign exchange rates. GAAP operating loss to be between $810 million loss and a $410 million loss compared to a $25 million loss in the third quarter of 2013. This includes approximately $410 million for stock-based compensation and amortization of intangible assets.

We anticipate consolidated segment operating income or loss, which excludes stock-based compensation and other operating expense to be between $400 million loss and $0 compared to $267 million of income in the third quarter of 2013.

Posted: **Fri Jul 25, 2014 11:51 am**

pr0ner wrote:The radio was saying last night that AMZN expects to post a huge loss in Q3, too. I wonder if that news is going to drive the stock down even more prior to its inevitable drop on the Q3 reporting date.

One of these days, people are going to give AMZN a normal multiple. Don't know when, but even 20 times projected earnings in 2017 would make it prices around 200.

Posted: **Fri Jul 25, 2014 11:13 pm**

I sell credit spreads in SPX and RUT for a hedge fund. Obviously, the market downturn and added volatility created an excellent day and pay off for us.

I'm curious who here is into similar strategies, and/or the like? What are you doing to offset risk? I'd love to hear of others who are successfully navigating the summer (slight VIX) swings.

Thanks.

Posted: **Sat Jul 26, 2014 6:01 pm**

LawBeefaroni wrote:INO and KNDI were my big movers today.

pr0ner wrote:Well then. PBYI almost TRIPLED today, going up $174.40 per share to $233.43 on positive breast cancer treatment news. Wow.
Crazy news for PBYI. $100 August calls were $0.61 at the last trade before today. They're around $132 today. Low volume and open interest but if you had even one contract at $61 when you went to bed, today it would be worth $13,000. IOW, $500 would be around $110,000.

A friend of mine at my golf club was saying a friend of his who gambles like crazy on the stock market made $1.3 MILLION on the PBYI spike. And that was with buying shares, not options.

Posted: **Sun Jul 27, 2014 11:28 am**

pr0ner wrote:
LawBeefaroni wrote:INO and KNDI were my big movers today.

pr0ner wrote:Well then. PBYI almost TRIPLED today, going up $174.40 per share to $233.43 on positive breast cancer treatment news. Wow.
Crazy news for PBYI. $100 August calls were $0.61 at the last trade before today. They're around $132 today. Low volume and open interest but if you had even one contract at $61 when you went to bed, today it would be worth $13,000. IOW, $500 would be around $110,000.
A friend of mine at my golf club was saying a friend of his who gambles like crazy on the stock market made $1.3 MILLION on the PBYI spike. And that was with buying shares, not options.

I wonder how much he really made.

Posted: **Fri Aug 01, 2014 1:20 pm**

Carpet_pissr wrote:
pr0ner wrote:
LawBeefaroni wrote:INO and KNDI were my big movers today.

pr0ner wrote:Well then. PBYI almost TRIPLED today, going up $174.40 per share to $233.43 on positive breast cancer treatment news. Wow.
Crazy news for PBYI. $100 August calls were $0.61 at the last trade before today. They're around $132 today. Low volume and open interest but if you had even one contract at $61 when you went to bed, today it would be worth $13,000. IOW, $500 would be around $110,000.
A friend of mine at my golf club was saying a friend of his who gambles like crazy on the stock market made $1.3 MILLION on the PBYI spike. And that was with buying shares, not options.
I wonder how much he really made.

Would have needed around $300-$400K in PBYI shares.

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