tru1cy wrote:I don't get the push to reveal the rest of the cabal, but I am dead set against it.
triggercut wrote:Newcastle wrote:
Cabal should come out.
No.
Just no.
Chaosraven wrote:Stop helping the furry.
bb2112 wrote: Anyone who wants all three to come out now is not fighting for team good.
These are strong opinions to a question that does not have an absolute advantage on one side or the other.
Let's take a closer look.
There are two predominant reasons that have been cited for the remaining cabal members to remain silent:
Lagom Lite wrote:Calling for the reveal of the other Cabal members is a terrible idea. It narrows down the pool of players that might be the Seer, so the wolves can kill him in the night.
and
bb2112 wrote: With three it makes it that much harder on the protector.
1. Less Room for the Seer to Hide
- If the remaining cabal members reveal, it is true that the Seer (and other specials) would have less room to hide. Let's look at a hypothetical where we lynch a good, non-special today. That would mean that 20 players would advance to night. The wolves would know the four of themselves and three cabal members for a total of seven known and 13 unknown. Thus, they would have a 1 in 13 chance of hitting the Seer (2 in 13 chance of hitting the Seer or the Hunter and a 4 in 13 chance of hitting a good special). A nice side effect of this scenario would be that
this would also increase the chances of the wolves killing the Sorcerer.
- If the remaining cabal members remain silent (under the same good, non-special lynch hypothetical), the wolves would have a 1 in 15 chance of hitting the Seer. (2 in 15 chance of hitting the Seer or Hunter and 4 in 15 chance of hitting a good special).
So, they would have a 6.7% chance of hitting the Seer if the cabal stays silent and a 7.7% chance of hitting the Seer if the remaining cabal members reveal.
Now, let's talk about the flip side that has previously been disregarded.
Let's consider the plight of the Seer.
The cabal revealing will not only make it easier for the wolves to find the Seer,
it will also make it easier for the Seer to find a wolf.
Let's take the same hypothetical as above (good, non-special lynched) from the Seer's perspective:
- With the two remaining cabalists remaining silent, the Seer would know himself, his Night 0 scan, and Lagom (there's even a slight possibility that Lagom was the Seer's Night 0 scan). That means he would be looking for 4 wolves (if he hits the Sorceror, he won't know) in a pool of 17 players.
- With the two remaining cabalists revealing, the Seer would then be looking for 4 wolves in a pool of 15 players.
If the cabal stays silent, the Seer has a 23.5% chance of finding a wolf. If they reveal, he has a 26.7% chance of finding a wolf.
Here's the other burden that the current situation has imposed upon the Seer:
- Without knowledge of the other two cabal members' identities, the Seer could scan one of them. This would in essence be a wasted scan, since the cabal members will presumably reveal themselves eventually anyway.
- Of course, the way for the Seer to avoid scanning a cabal member would be for him to avoid anyone on Lagom's "good guy" list. The problem with that is that the Seer is now handcuffed by Lagom's list. Do we want the Seer to ignore his own instincts and observations and rely on Lagom's Day 1 impressions?
2. More Difficult Protection Choices for the Hunter.
There is a fallacy involved with those claiming that if the remaining cabalists reveal, it will make the Hunter's choices more difficult. The truth is that it will make the Hunter's protection choice
easier. The assertion that the cabal revealing will make it harder for the Seer to hide
-and- harder for the Hunter to protect is flawed. Those two assertions cannot peacefully coexist.
The consensus objection to the cabalists revealing is that the wolves would then ignore the cabalists and have a smaller pool in which to find the Seer and the other good specials. However, if that is true, why would the Hunter be protecting Lagom or one of the two revealed cabalists? The Hunter would also realize that the wolves would be going after a non-cabalist and would direct his protection accordingly.
If the cabalists remain silent, the Hunter will have a 1 in 18 chance (maybe 1 in 17, depending on his Night 0 protection, or lack thereof) of making the right protection choice. If they reveal, he will have a 1 in 16 chance of making the right protection choice. By revealing, the cabal gives the Hunter an increase from 5.6% to 6.3% of being successful.
Of course, the wolves could consider that and just kill one of the cabalists in the night. But, that would be a worthwhile trade-off. The longevity of the Seer and the Hunter is more valuable than that of the cabalists. (Especially, given that, if the wolves choose that path, it would take the wolves three night kills to be rid of the cabal, giving the Seer four scans in return and giving the Hunter much more information to help decide how to use his shot).
Lagom
Here's the other issue that the cabal must debate. How confident are they of Lagom's read of the game on Day 1?
- If Lagom is very intuitive this game and has listed the majority of wolves/Sorcerer in his "maybe baby" list, then the other cabalists remaining hidden will be a big advantage for us.
- If Lagom's intuition and read of players on Day 1 is off and the majority of wolves/Sorcerer are in his "good guy" list, we are going to be in trouble the longer we abide by it.
In trying to decide whether it is best for the cabal to reveal, we are at a distinct disadvantage to the wolves. We don't know which is the best path. However, the wolves do.
Thus, my contention that there is no absolute best choice in this matter.
Cabal Reveal
The assertion that the other cabalists revealing themselves is only beneficial to the wolves is patently false. Both paths have advantages and disadvantages to each team.
- The cabalists remaining silent lessens the odds for both the wolves and the good specials to be successful in their goals.
- The cabalists revealing increases the risks and the rewards for both the wolves and the good specials.