The Trump Investigation(s) Thread

[Remus West]

That linked article just repeated more of what I've already read. Where do you get the idea that he had a change of heart?

[Smoove_B]

Friday: "I won't testify"

Sunday: ""That's a question I'll have to determine after my attorneys have some discussion ..."

The linked article in the Tweet is the same as the Vox Article. Watch the interview. He presents the situation a bit differently after two days of advice from lawyers, I'd imagine.

[GreenGoo]

In support of smoove's post, Fox also suggests Stone is now contemplating testifying, contrary to his earlier statements.

Someone else will have to link. Me and phones and linking don't mix well.

[Max Peck]

From some of the articles I've been reading, Mueller may not have much interest in Stone as a cooperating witness. His best chance at cutting a deal to save his own skin might be to give up his passwords.

No Escape for Roger Stone: Mueller’s Case Is a Slam Dunk and He’s Too Slimy to Get Flipped

Prosecutor who helped convict Dick Cheney aide Scooter Libby for lying and obstruction says the case against Trump’s old pal is virtually perfect.
. . .
Finally, do not expect to see Special Counsel Robert Mueller make any attempt to flip Stone and have him cooperate. A defendant like Stone is far more trouble than he is worth to a prosecutor. Stone is too untrustworthy for a prosecutor to ever rely upon. He has told so many documented lies, and bragged so often about his dirty tricks, that he simply has too much baggage to deal with even if here to want to cooperate—which seems unlikely in any event. Mueller, I suspect, would not even be willing to engage in a preliminary debrief with Stone to just test the possibility of cooperation out of concern that Stone would immediately go on television with his pals at Fox News to decry Mueller’s Gestapo tactics.

In short, Mueller does not need Stone to get to someone else and, even if he did, he could not rely on whatever Stone told him. Stone has nothing to sell that Mueller would be interested in buying.

Mueller’s Real Target in the Roger Stone Indictment

For many, Friday’s arrest of Roger Stone, the veteran political trickster and longtime adviser to Donald Trump, was a sign that the special counsel investigation into Russian electoral interference is entering its final phase. Yet there were also several indications that the probe may not be as near its conclusion as many observers assume — and that the true target of Friday’s F.B.I. actions was not Mr. Stone himself, but his electronic devices.

Mr. Stone’s early-morning arrest at his Florida home unsurprisingly dominated coverage, but reports also noted that federal agents were “seen carting hard drives and other evidence from Mr. Stone’s apartment in Harlem, and his recording studio in South Florida was also raided.” The F.B.I., in other words, was executing search warrants, not just arrest warrants. Even the timing and manner of Mr. Stone’s arrest — at the absolute earliest moment allowed under federal rules of criminal procedure without persuading a judge to authorize an exceptional nighttime raid — suggests a concern with preventing destruction of evidence: Otherwise it would make little sense to send a dozen agents to arrest a man in his 60s before sunrise.
. . .
Yet if Mr. Mueller is indeed less interested in Mr. Stone than the potential evidence on his phones and computers, the conventional wisdom that the special counsel probe is wrapping up — and could issue a final report as soon as next month — seems awfully implausible. Digital forensics takes time, and a single device could easily hold many thousands of messages to sift through. And if this really is the first time Mr. Mueller’s office is seeing the most sensitive communications from a key figure like Mr. Stone, it’s likely they’ll come away with new leads to follow and new questions to pose to other witnesses.

We may ultimately look back on Mr. Stone’s arrest not as the beginning of the special counsel’s endgame, but the point when the investigation began to really heat up.

[Holman]

My worry is that, given Stone's very public statements that he expected to he indicted, he sandblasted the important hard drives several months ago.

It would suck if all Mueller gets is terabytes and terabytes of Swinger Porn.

Maybe this is where the Cloud saves us after all?

[GreenGoo]

If I hear one more "this could be a sign the investigation is entering its final phase" I'm gonna punch the writer in the nuts. We've had 2 months of this uselessness speculation. Sure, it could be. Hell, it might even be probable. So what?

Second, there is no way for random prosecutor dude to know what value Stone is to Meuller. Even if he is completely untrustworthy as a witness, the information he might have could be devastating. Providing that evidence in exchange for leniency is still flipping, as pointed out by the second article/quote. To me that makes the first article of limited interest.

To Holman's point, Meuller went in with guns drawn and media blackout on the indictment for that exact reason. Sure Stone could have burned the evidence months earlier, but if Stone thought he was going to be indicted, Meuller almost certainly thought so too, and went after him with guns drawn anyway.

Drumpf's conspirators have been nothing if not arrogant and stupid (see Cohen especially, but Manafort too). Which might mean Stone talked a lot about being arrested but as time passed, believed he was going to go free after all. Or, he might be smart enough to preserve all the evidence so he has a bargaining chip.

Who knows? At this point it might turn out he's an alien with diplomatic immunity and I wouldn't be surprised.

I guess I'm just tired of the constant procession of 3rd party experts and their endless speculation despite having zero information about the facts beyond what is common knowledge.

[Alefroth]

Providing that evidence in exchange for leniency is still flipping, as pointed out by the second article/quote. To me that makes the first article of limited interest.

Nothing in the second article requires Stone's cooperation. Why would Mueller give leniency for evidence he already has?

[Max Peck]

Here's some more Roger Stone commentary from yet another random former federal prosecutor.

Roger Stone’s Greatest Liability is the fact that he insists on being Roger Stone.

Roger Stone opened the door early Friday morning to a group of gun-toting FBI agents and a seven-count federal indictment—the latest arrest in the Special Counsel investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election.

Robert Mueller’s chatty, informative indictment underscores Stone’s fierce loyalty to Donald Trump, and proves a larger point, too: Character is destiny. Roger Stone’s downfall is the logical conclusion of continuing to act like Roger Stone.

Stone is perfectly suited for the age of clickbait. He’s got a flamboyant wardrobe, a Nixon tattoo, and a flair for getting people to laugh at him. He has a brand: truculent and unjustified self-confidence, meandering trash-talking, and a penchant for lashing out at perceived enemies. These things make him a reliable eye-catcher. Nobody ever changed the channel when Stone was trying to talk himself out of trouble. But these same qualities make Stone and people like him easy targets for a ruthless prosecutor. The indictment depicts Stone acting in private more or less the way he acts in public. The special counsel has charged Stone with five counts of lying to Congress, one count of witness tampering, and one count of obstructing a House intelligence probe into Russian interference.
. . .
Most people wouldn’t perjure themselves in easily detectable ways to Congress and threaten a talkative witness in writing. But Roger Stone isn’t most people. Roger Stone is a character lovingly crafted by Roger Stone. And now Stone is facing prison time because he couldn’t seem to grasp the distinction between a television persona and a prudent response to a federal investigation. The lesson is an old one, drilled into our heads repeatedly in the past two years: Media strategies are not sound legal strategies. Mueller continues to take down Trump associates who could not bring themselves to lawyer up, assert their Fifth Amendment rights, and stop riding the cable-news circuit. But it’s not clear that any of them—including the president himself—have learned that lesson.

A white-collar-criminal defense attorney’s hardest job often is persuading clients to shut up. Their clients see themselves as Masters of the Universe and have and have enjoyed great success by being dynamic, decisive, and persuasive. They have a hard time accepting that the very volubility that got them where they are can send them to federal prison. But it’s getting easier. Lawyers used to have to make 15-year-old references to Martha Stewart’s conviction to wheedle clients into a prudent silence. In the age of Mueller, they can just point to the front page of nearly any newspaper.

[Alefroth]

My worry is that, given Stone's very public statements that he expected to he indicted, he sandblasted the important hard drives several months ago.

Yep. You'd have to be really stupid or careless to have anything incriminating on those devices still. Here's hoping.

[Jaymann]

Apparently Stone's hard drives not only contain proof of Trump colluding with Putin, but that Ted Cruz is the Zodiac Killer, and Cruz's father killed JFK. Is he related to Oliver Stone?

[GreenGoo]

Here's some more Roger Stone commentary from yet another random former federal prosecutor.

Roger Stone’s Greatest Liability is the fact that he insists on being Roger Stone.

That's all well and good, but what the world really wants to know is if this is a sign Meuller's investigation is nearing an end.

[GreenGoo]

Providing that evidence in exchange for leniency is still flipping, as pointed out by the second article/quote. To me that makes the first article of limited interest.

Nothing in the second article requires Stone's cooperation. Why would Mueller give leniency for evidence he already has?

And the second article knows what Stone knows and what Meuller has because...?

[Holman]

Maybe this is simplistic, but Stone's arrest might just (or also) serve as a warning to those closer to Trump that Mueller is coming for absolutely everybody.

Many of those indicted have been minor or subsidiary figures. Manafort was close, but he was an outsider brought in for the campaign. Stone and Cohen, however, have been Trump intimates since way before politics.

If I'm Jared or even Don Jr., I'm starting to calculate whether Mueller or Daddy will be capable of offering me a better future.

[malchior]

Why does Republicans failure to name members keep them from operating? Seems like the committee rules need to be updated.

My admittedly blind guess is because the committee rules are written in such a way that they need a quorum to operate. If he continues to drag his heel, McCarthy could be basically operating from the margins where our political civil war allows violation of norms to be exploited. And you can't change rules if the rules committee can't meet...I assume this will be cleared up shortly but if it isn't then we'll know the infection is spreading.

[Skinypupy]

Talking points have apparently been issued, as I saw this doozy twice in the conservative derp-o-sphere this morning:

"They sent more arms to arrest Roger Stone than they sent to Benghazi. Think about that one."

[Unagi]

Total aside: This is perhaps my all time favorite gif. It's near perfection. From the twice stalled utterances to the curled hand under the nose, palm to cheek, and last second eye look. All in a 3 second gif.

[LawBeefaroni]

Here's some more Roger Stone commentary from yet another random former federal prosecutor.

Roger Stone’s Greatest Liability is the fact that he insists on being Roger Stone.

That's all well and good, but what the world really wants to know is if this is a sign Meuller's investigation is nearing an end.

It is not the beginning of the end nor the end of the beginning. But is clearly entering the next phase with possible phases to follow. Or maybe not. But probably.

[Isgrimnur]

WaPo

A new study ... concerns the “emoluments clause” case, which was brought by the attorneys general in Maryland and the District of Columbia. The case seeks to show Trump is violating the portion of the Constitution barring a public official from accepting “any present, Emolument, Office, or Title, of any kind whatever, from any King, Prince, or foreign State.” The case has progressed further than some experts predicted, with a U.S. district judge last year allowing it to proceed and launching the discovery process, in which Trump’s business dealings can be revealed.

Perhaps the biggest unresolved question hanging over the whole thing is this: What exactly is an “emolument"?
...
[A] new study submitted as an amicus brief in the case bolsters it, using a much-broader survey of how the word was used in the late-1700s than even the dictionary study.

The study from Clark D. Cunningham at Georgia State University and Jesse Egbert of Northern Arizona University uses a scientific method called “corpus linguistics” that combines traditional linguistics with large sets of data, in the form of contemporary written texts.

Studying 138 million words written between 1760 and 1799, the researchers found more than 2,500 uses of “emolument” or “emoluments." From there, they found:

1. The word was usually modified either before or after its usage — much more than an average noun — suggesting it had a broad meaning that required such specification and clarifying.
2. Many of the uses concerned personal or private transactions not involving a public official.
3. The word was often modified using the adjective “official," which would be redundant if that were understood as part of its definition.
4. It often appeared (35 percent of the time) with other nouns as part of a “coordinated noun phrase," and in many cases involving public officials it was used alongside the word “profit.” This suggests it could be something besides a profit.

Perhaps most importantly, the study found these coordinated noun phrases often used the word “other” before emoluments. (In fact, the phrase “other emoluments" accounted for one out of every 40 uses of emolument, which is far more common than for other nouns.) This suggests many of the words that would proceed “other emoluments” were understood themselves to be forms of emoluments. This would include words like “bounties,” “fees,” “contracts,” “lands,” “pay,” “clothing,” “privileges” and “places."

Taken together, this research suggests that many things constitute an emolument and that Trump’s continued acceptance of basically anything from foreign states could be interpreted as accepting emoluments.

[El Guapo]

There have to be a small group of people with expertise in emoluments who are now making serious bank from the rise of Trump.

[Alefroth]

Here's some more Roger Stone commentary from yet another random former federal prosecutor.

Roger Stone’s Greatest Liability is the fact that he insists on being Roger Stone.

That's all well and good, but what the world really wants to know is if this is a sign Meuller's investigation is nearing an end.

It is not the beginning of the end nor the end of the beginning. But is clearly entering the next phase with possible phases to follow. Or maybe not. But probably.

Whitaker thinks it's the end.

[El Guapo]

Here's some more Roger Stone commentary from yet another random former federal prosecutor.

Roger Stone’s Greatest Liability is the fact that he insists on being Roger Stone.

That's all well and good, but what the world really wants to know is if this is a sign Meuller's investigation is nearing an end.

It is not the beginning of the end nor the end of the beginning. But is clearly entering the next phase with possible phases to follow. Or maybe not. But probably.

Whitaker thinks it's the end.

Report: Mueller Investigation Nearly Done With First Day Of Trump Campaign.

WASHINGTON—Confirming that the special counsel’s probe into potential Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election had made significant progress, sources in the Justice Department revealed to reporters Tuesday that Robert Mueller’s investigation was nearly done with the first day of the Trump campaign. “After two years of thoroughly pursuing all leads and documenting any evidence that suggests a connection between the Trump team and Russia, the Mueller investigation is almost ready to reveal the crimes and misdeeds that occurred within the first 24 hours of his campaign,” said a source who spoke on condition of anonymity, adding that Mueller’s investigation was nearly finished compiling the Trump campaign’s illicit behavior during working hours on June 16, 2015 and could finally move on to indictments for the early evening. “We can also confirm that the special counsel is expediting his efforts to get the investigation of the first day done and recently requested extra staff to deal with the volume of the potential criminal behavior during the 4-4:30 p.m. period alone. At this rate, he should be ready to reveal his findings about the first 96 hours of the Trump campaign by 2020.” Justice Department sources also cautioned people following the investigation not to get too excited about it ending with bombshell arrests, and estimated that it would likely lead to indictments for only 10-12 percent of the U.S. population.

[Alefroth]

That must be what he meant

[LawBeefaroni]

There have to be a small group of people with expertise in emoluments who are now making serious bank from the rise of Trump.

Lawyers' COBOL.

[ImLawBoy]

There have to be a small group of people with expertise in emoluments who are now making serious bank from the rise of Trump.

Lawyers' COBOL.

/furiously reads through ConLaw notes from 25 years ago looking for emoluments references.

/remembers that I threw out my ConLaw notes about 24.5 years ago.

[coopasonic]

There have to be a small group of people with expertise in emoluments who are now making serious bank from the rise of Trump.

Lawyers' COBOL.

/furiously reads through ConLaw notes from 25 years ago looking for emoluments references.

/remembers that I threw out my ConLaw notes about 24.5 years ago.

Maybe Mr. Fed has something you can borrow.

[Jaymann]

There have to be a small group of people with expertise in emoluments who are now making serious bank from the rise of Trump.

Lawyers' COBOL.

/furiously reads through ConLaw notes from 25 years ago looking for emoluments references.

/remembers that I threw out my ConLaw notes about 24.5 years ago.

Maybe Mr. Fed has something you can borrow.

You should set it up since he is your BFF.

[GungHo]

Report: Mueller Investigation Nearly Done With First Day Of Trump Campaign.

WASHINGTON—Confirming that the special counsel’s probe into potential Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election had made significant progress, sources in the Justice Department revealed to reporters Tuesday that Robert Mueller’s investigation was nearly done with the first day of the Trump campaign. “After two years of thoroughly pursuing all leads and documenting any evidence that suggests a connection between the Trump team and Russia, the Mueller investigation is almost ready to reveal the crimes and misdeeds that occurred within the first 24 hours of his campaign,” said a source who spoke on condition of anonymity, adding that Mueller’s investigation was nearly finished compiling the Trump campaign’s illicit behavior during working hours on June 16, 2015 and could finally move on to indictments for the early evening. “We can also confirm that the special counsel is expediting his efforts to get the investigation of the first day done and recently requested extra staff to deal with the volume of the potential criminal behavior during the 4-4:30 p.m. period alone. At this rate, he should be ready to reveal his findings about the first 96 hours of the Trump campaign by 2020.” Justice Department sources also cautioned people following the investigation not to get too excited about it ending with bombshell arrests, and estimated that it would likely lead to indictments for only 10-12 percent of the U.S. population.

Funny.

[Kraken]

Report: Mueller Investigation Nearly Done With First Day Of Trump Campaign.

WASHINGTON—Confirming that the special counsel’s probe into potential Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election had made significant progress, sources in the Justice Department revealed to reporters Tuesday that Robert Mueller’s investigation was nearly done with the first day of the Trump campaign. “After two years of thoroughly pursuing all leads and documenting any evidence that suggests a connection between the Trump team and Russia, the Mueller investigation is almost ready to reveal the crimes and misdeeds that occurred within the first 24 hours of his campaign,” said a source who spoke on condition of anonymity, adding that Mueller’s investigation was nearly finished compiling the Trump campaign’s illicit behavior during working hours on June 16, 2015 and could finally move on to indictments for the early evening. “We can also confirm that the special counsel is expediting his efforts to get the investigation of the first day done and recently requested extra staff to deal with the volume of the potential criminal behavior during the 4-4:30 p.m. period alone. At this rate, he should be ready to reveal his findings about the first 96 hours of the Trump campaign by 2020.” Justice Department sources also cautioned people following the investigation not to get too excited about it ending with bombshell arrests, and estimated that it would likely lead to indictments for only 10-12 percent of the U.S. population.

Funny.

And accurate. This clown commits new offenses at such a pace that no institutions can keep up. He'll be safely dead long before it can all be laid out.

[malchior]

There is breaking news on the cable news networks that sounds absolutely insane. The gist is that a court filing by the SCO today said that files from discovery that was given to defense attorneys last year appeared in Russian data dumps. They were linked via a twitter account that has since been terminated. Apparently the files had been tagged (verified via hash) and were confirmed to be the ones given to the defense team. WTF!?

Edit: The story! The SCO is alleging that non-sensitive data given to the defense team for the Russian troll farm appeared in disinformation campaigns spun up by the Russians. I was hoping it was one of our clueless American defendants but still pretty crazy. Mueller's team was using the incident as a case to push back against discovery requests for sensitive or confidential data.

[Isgrimnur]

Bloomberg

The federal judge who must decide whether Paul Manafort lied to investigators after pledging to cooperate with Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia probe began a hearing Monday in a sealed courtroom to discuss secret evidence gathered by the government.
...
Jackson, who held a brief hearing on the matter last month, is set to sentence Manafort on March 5 for two conspiracy counts. Her decision on the alleged deal breach could influence how harshly she sentences him.

[Dogstar]

Now the SDNY has gotten subpoenas for records from Trump's inauguration committee.

The scope of documents requested in the subpoena and potential crimes investigators are probing are both remarkable — investigating everything from false statements to money laundering. Investigators are said to be interested in the inaugural committee’s spending, its donations, whether any donations came from illegal foreign sources, and potential corruption involving favors for donors.

I'm starting to believe Kraken is right. We'll be investigating Trump and his administration for years after it ends.

[YellowKing]

It just seems incredible to me that someone could be so thoroughly corrupt they can't even raise inauguration funds in an ethical manner.

[GreenGoo]

It just seems incredible to me that someone could be so thoroughly corrupt they can't even raise inauguration funds in an ethical manner.

I think the point is that he probably doesn't know how to raise funds in an ethical manner. If he had decent, experienced teams he almost certainly could have reduced his ethical missteps by a significant percentage. He's just a moron who doesn't know anyone decent or ethical. I'm sure it never occurred to him that what he and his committees were doing was wrong. We have plenty of evidence that even when it is explained to him he is defiant in his belief that he has done no wrong.

[Smoove_B]

It just seems incredible to me that someone could be so thoroughly corrupt they can't even raise inauguration funds in an ethical manner.

My guess is that long after we're all dead (I'm going to say 50 years from now), there's going to be books written about the money-laundering criminal family that was somehow (accidentally?) elected to the office of the Presidency. The longer this goes on, the more I believe this was never supposed to happen. But once it did, the rats swarmed.

[$iljanus]

It just seems incredible to me that someone could be so thoroughly corrupt they can't even raise inauguration funds in an ethical manner.

My guess is that long after we're all dead (I'm going to say 50 years from now), there's going to be books written about the money-laundering criminal family that was somehow (accidentally?) elected to the office of the Presidency. The longer this goes on, the more I believe this was never supposed to happen. But once it did, the rats swarmed.

Well, since the electronic medium will be nonexistent except as myth and paper will be scarce because it was burned to get through the nuclear winter the Trump story will probably be told through interpretative dance.

But as for our pre-apocalyptic times, Trump is behaving exactly like a businessman and perhaps that’s why it’s not always a good idea to have a country run by a businessman. And he wasn’t even that good of a businessman.

[Isgrimnur]

A modern day Medici family, only not as effective.

[Holman]

It just seems incredible to me that someone could be so thoroughly corrupt they can't even raise inauguration funds in an ethical manner.

[Ron Howard Narrator:] The funds weren't for the inauguration.

[Unagi]

A modern day Medici family, only not as effective.

Horrible comparison.

[Unagi]

It just seems incredible to me that someone could be so thoroughly corrupt they can't even raise inauguration funds in an ethical manner.

I think the point is that he probably doesn't know how to raise funds in an ethical manner. If he had decent, experienced teams he almost certainly could have reduced his ethical missteps by a significant percentage. He's just a moron who doesn't know anyone decent or ethical. I'm sure it never occurred to him that what he and his committees were doing was wrong. We have plenty of evidence that even when it is explained to him he is defiant in his belief that he has done no wrong.

"It's not obstruction of justice, I'm just defending myself... anyone would defend themselves, you can't ask someone not to defend themselves"

[em2nought]

Wow, this thread kinda dropped off the map

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/ ... on-1156624