Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[Paingod]

Two decades of pandemic war games failed to account for Donald Trump

I hope all future scenarios and plans include an element where they think about what to do when someone "Who just wants to watch the world burn (for personal gain) and leads a cult of fanaticals" is in office.

[Unagi]

CPS has canned the hybrid model. Online/at home only to start the year.

We are up in suburban cook county, region 10.

I’m very frustrated because our schools seem to be sticking to the hybrid model.

The hybrid model is just so pointless. Massive pain in the ass, no help to the ‘need parent home all day’ problem, and puts the kids at full risk, and thus the whole community.

So frustrating. My hope was the CPS would help push our district , but they seem compelled to listen to the community that (I’m depressed to learn) seems to be demanding in person schooling.

Ugh.

Apparently if our region dips out of phase 4, then they will go full virtual classrooms.
But only then.

[LordMortis]

All this talk, so I was curious. It looks like as of July 30th all 3 options are still on the table for my district with the idea that may switch philosophies rapidly (which suggests to me they plan to be fully open unless the state mandates otherwise)

The plans we have in place are thorough and ready to implement without delay in the event we need to switch plans. While we all want students back in school full time, direction and guidance we receive from the State of Michigan, the local health department, and the CDC may change details of these plans. One thing that won’t change is making the safety of our students and staff our top priority.

The three scenarios the District are preparing for include:

Face to face instruction (traditional model)
Hybrid instruction (students return to school two days a week)
Virtual instruction (all classes are online)

We were hit pretty hard during the spike. Probably around 2% of the municipality tested positive and 1% of those died. One can only hope it ran its course because this looks irresponsible to me, like we know it's wrong but making the decision is toxic, so we'll wait for Whitmer to make the decision and let her take the fire.

I'd take solace in the promise that they are ready to change rapidly, but that is reactionary decision making, not prophylactic decision making. Maybe I've just been working in disaster mitigation too long, where the guidance for mitigation "is not if it happens but when it happens."

[El Guapo]

Two decades of pandemic war games failed to account for Donald Trump

I hope all future scenarios and plans include an element where they think about what to do when someone "Who just wants to watch the world burn (for personal gain) and leads a cult of fanaticals" is in office.

What should be done is wargaming / scenario planning at the state level, assuming that the federal government is unhelpful.

[Paingod]

Two decades of pandemic war games failed to account for Donald Trump

I hope all future scenarios and plans include an element where they think about what to do when someone "Who just wants to watch the world burn (for personal gain) and leads a cult of fanaticals" is in office.

What should be done is wargaming / scenario planning at the state level, assuming that the federal government is unhelpful.

Lots of norms need to be adjusted. Up until now it was an impossible thought that the executive branch of office would seemingly act in ways wildly contrary to public safety and national security.

I wasn't old enough to have an opinion of Reagan, I didn't care about Bush Sr. and I thought Bush Jr. was simply incompetent. I didn't care one way or another about Clinton, and I really liked Obama as a person. I never once, though, considered any of them an active threat to the nation. Trump has set all kinds of new lows that need to be addressed before anyone like him comes along again.

[malchior]

Trump has set all kinds of new lows that need to be addressed before anyone like him comes along again.

Sure but no one has any reasonable idea how to do that. To the extent that no one even really talks about it beyond tweaks to the system that will just continue the political warfare.

[YellowKing]

The problem really isn't Trump; we have safeguards in place to stop a President who is a threat to the nation. The problem is we have an entire political party willing to support and protect him in his endeavors. That's a situation nobody anticipated.

[LawBeefaroni]

I wasn't old enough to have an opinion of Reagan, I didn't care about Bush Sr. and I thought Bush Jr. was simply incompetent. I didn't care one way or another about Clinton, and I really liked Obama as a person. I never once, though, considered any of them an active threat to the nation. Trump has set all kinds of new lows that need to be addressed before anyone like him comes along again.

The main issue with any of them, any past president really, was that they might be wrong in what they believed to best for the nation. With Trump, he doesn't give a fuck about the nation. He only cares about what is best for him and it is almost always at odds with what is best for the country.

[Smoove_B]

Oh well. We can't expect them to work when there's $600 a week potentially going out to the poors.

The senators’ departure from Washington despite a tentative Friday deadline signals just how far apart Democrats and the White House remain on reaching an agreement. The coronavirus pandemic has killed more than 157,000 Americans, while tens of millions more are unemployed. The Labor Department reported Thursday that 1.19 million people filed for unemployment benefits last week in state programs, a decline from previous weeks but still a sign that the economy is showing little sign of improving.

The report was the first since a federal $600 weekly unemployment benefit allocated in March’s $2 trillion CARES Act officially expired.

[LordMortis]

The main issue with any of them, any past president really, was that they might be wrong in what they believed to best for the nation. With Trump, he doesn't give a fuck about the nation. He only cares about what is best for him and it is almost always at odds with what is best for the country.

This is my sense, so you must be telling the truth. (I'm too young to remember Nixon. He might be the exception)

[malchior]

The main issue with any of them, any past president really, was that they might be wrong in what they believed to best for the nation. With Trump, he doesn't give a fuck about the nation. He only cares about what is best for him and it is almost always at odds with what is best for the country.

This is my sense, so you must be telling the truth. (I'm too young to remember Nixon. He might be the exception)

Nixon had his issues. He was authoritarian and paranoid to a fault yet he still mostly put the country first. It just happened that he thought *he* was best for the country. His policies and his views to put a point on it but it wasn't about personal enrichment. It's shades of grey different. Trump is an especially broken human being. Every calculation for Trump runs first to what is best for him then he declares that is best for the nation.

[Blackhawk]

Confusion emerged in most pandemic simulations, but none explored the consequences of a White House sidelining its own public-health agency. Perhaps they should have, suggests a scientist...

If you'd walked into a meeting five years ago and suggested that they run a model that included a populist President with control of the senate who considered any pandemic response to be politically harmful, and thus acted by politicizing the safety measures, falsifying data, and discrediting science itself to gain reelection without consideration of the human cost, you'd have been laughed out of the room.

[Smoove_B]

Sounds like things are going great down in Georgia:

For the second straight day, parents of students in the Cherokee County School District were informed of students testing positive for COVID-19. Since Monday, four schools in the county have been impacted by the virus.

...

A first grade student at Hasty Elementary Fine Arts Academy tested positive for the coronavirus. Due to this exposure, Barbara Jacoby, a district spokesperson, said three students from the child’s classroom, as well as the teacher, and seven students from the after school program must quarantine for two weeks.

...

An eighth grade student at Dean Rusk Middle School also tested positive for COVID-19. Contact tracing was conducted, the district said, and all affected students’ parents were notified to pick up their children early on Wednesday.

...



Lastly, an entire kindergarten class at R.M. Moore Elementary School was sent home Wednesday to quarantine for 14 days after a teacher showed symptoms and was in close contact with someone who tested positive for the coronavirus.

Jacoby said the teacher began showing symptoms after school on Monday and did not come to school on Tuesday or Wednesday.

This comes one day after a second grade class at Sixes Elementary School was informed that a student tested positive and would also have to learn virtually for 14 days.

[malchior]

Azar is on MSNBC right now. He sounded half-reasonable until the hydroxychloroquine question. It went so, so far off the rails. Andrea Mitchell asked him if it is proper for Trump or Navarro to be pushing it now that there are negative indications about its usage. He ignored her question and instead talked about how doctor's can use anything approved in the United States off-label and it is up to doctor's to decide. Andrea persisted and said that was it appropriate for the President to push a drug with negative indicators. Azars response. There are warning labels on the medicine. Good lord.

Apparently Trump also just claimed that the vaccine will be ready by November 3rd but it isn't for the election. It'll help him of course but the most important thing is people's health.

Edit: Also another note, just heard that Fauci and other health officials are now reporting they've been receiving death threats throughout the year. Great. News is off again. I'm sorry I turned it on.

[Enough]

So that viral photo from Georgia schools we all were seeing of a hall on the first day of school that was incredibly crowded and only a fraction masked? Apparently the student who shared it has been suspended.

[Isgrimnur]

Ludicrous.

[$iljanus]

So that viral photo from Georgia schools we all were seeing of a hall on the first day of school that was incredibly crowded and only a fraction masked? Apparently the student who shared it has been suspended.

Much easier to squash dissent than to mandate masks.

[Enough]

OH governor DeWine has announced he has tested positive for COVID-19.

https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status ... 0283983883

https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status ... 0283983883

[Enough]

DeWine is apparently asymptomatic. And in more education news, the school that Pence featured for reopening last week is now quarantining 4-grade students and their teachers for 14 days due to a positive student test.

[Pyperkub]

A good look at how the US Testing effort is failing, and possible fixes:

Storms aside, the main reason U.S. testing is going down instead of up is that the type of testing we’re doing — PCR (polymerase chain reaction) — seems to have reached its limit. PCR tests are the gold standard for diagnosing COVID-19, and rightly so: They correctly identify more than 98 percent of positive cases.

But they’re also slow, and getting slower. As the virus spreads, more and more potentially exposed Americans are demanding tests, forcing overwhelmed U.S. labs to compete with other countries for the supplies required to process so many samples. Often, labs run out. As a result, crippling backlogs have been delaying test results for so long they’ve essentially become worthless.

According to a new national survey by researchers from Harvard University, Northeastern University, Northwestern University and Rutgers University, Americans tested for COVID-19 in July reported waiting an average of four days for their results. About 10 percent of people reported waiting 10 days or more.

Yet public health experts say results that take more than 24 to 48 hours to arrive defeat the purpose of testing. By the time people get a positive result, they may have already infected others. By the time they get a negative result, they may have been infected by others.

[malchior]

I was just doing some reading on Florida and came across something startling. At least to someone from NJ. All of Florida has 67 school districts. NJ has 9-10 times that for 40% the population. Wow. And even then managing the coronavirus response is difficult. In NJ, it is practically a free for all due to the insane number of stakeholders.

[Blackhawk]

So that viral photo from Georgia schools we all were seeing of a hall on the first day of school that was incredibly crowded and only a fraction masked? Apparently the student who shared it has been suspended.

Also from that school:

On Wednesday, an intercom announcement at the school from principal Gabe Carmona said any student found criticizing the school on social media could face discipline.

[Enough]

So that viral photo from Georgia schools we all were seeing of a hall on the first day of school that was incredibly crowded and only a fraction masked? Apparently the student who shared it has been suspended.

Also from that school:

On Wednesday, an intercom announcement at the school from principal Gabe Carmona said any student found criticizing the school on social media could face discipline.

And apparently it was not the first photo we wall saw, which the source of is still unclear. It was for two students who shared videos and other posts on social media it seems.

[Paingod]

Sounds like the first lesson the students will actually need to learn is the ACLU hotline number.

[LawBeefaroni]

So that viral photo from Georgia schools we all were seeing of a hall on the first day of school that was incredibly crowded and only a fraction masked? Apparently the student who shared it has been suspended.

Also from that school:

On Wednesday, an intercom announcement at the school from principal Gabe Carmona said any student found criticizing the school on social media could face discipline.

If every student, or most students, posted the same critical video or photo or comment at roughly the same time, they could break the school disciplinary process.

[Blackhawk]

And the Principal will learn that he's not untouchable. It sounds like the Principal is emulating Trump. He'll find out that it doesn't work without a trained Senate to watch your back.

[LordMortis]

So that viral photo from Georgia schools we all were seeing of a hall on the first day of school that was incredibly crowded and only a fraction masked? Apparently the student who shared it has been suspended.

Also from that school:

On Wednesday, an intercom announcement at the school from principal Gabe Carmona said any student found criticizing the school on social media could face discipline.

And apparently it was not the first photo we wall saw, which the source of is still unclear. It was for two students who shared videos and other posts on social media it seems.

it's not clear from the article if "Freeyourmind" was one of the suspended but if they were, it's a stretch to caption a phone of the first day of school with "This is the first day of school in Paulding County, Georgia." is criticism, isn't it?

Edit, NM didnt' read close enough. freeyourmind was re-post.

posting pictures of minors without consent,

Is a very real concern for schools but this sort of a bullshit excuse to invoke it.

and this + Georgia's current infection reporting? They are well and truly fucked.

[LawBeefaroni]

Edit, NM didnt' read close enough. freeyourmind was re-post.

posting pictures of minors without consent,

Is a very real concern for schools but this sort of a bullshit excuse to invoke it.

If they had masks they would be unidentifiable and the photo would be OK.

[Holman]

posting pictures of minors without consent,

Is a very real concern for schools but this sort of a bullshit excuse to invoke it.

The average high schooler posts pics like this a dozen times a week.

[Ralph-Wiggum]

https://twitter.com/chelseahandler/stat ... 03266?s=20

Spoiler:

Students are being suspended for taking pictures of schools that aren’t following coronavirus safety protocols. Hopefully they don’t stop until every student is suspended and safe at home.

[LawBeefaroni]

I was at a CPD district station last night for a few hours. Very few masks and even then they were just a courtesy for us civies. They came on when entering the room. And when eating it was just like normal, 3-4 cops per 4-person table.

I get that it's a different kind of job but it can rip through a station.

[El Guapo]

So that viral photo from Georgia schools we all were seeing of a hall on the first day of school that was incredibly crowded and only a fraction masked? Apparently the student who shared it has been suspended.

Also from that school:

On Wednesday, an intercom announcement at the school from principal Gabe Carmona said any student found criticizing the school on social media could face discipline.

If every student, or most students, posted the same critical video or photo or comment at roughly the same time, they could break the school disciplinary process.

Also, didn't the Supreme Court *just* issue a ruling saying that students can't be disciplined for off-school grounds criticisms of their school on social media?

[Pyperkub]

So that viral photo from Georgia schools we all were seeing of a hall on the first day of school that was incredibly crowded and only a fraction masked? Apparently the student who shared it has been suspended.

Also from that school:

On Wednesday, an intercom announcement at the school from principal Gabe Carmona said any student found criticizing the school on social media could face discipline.

If every student, or most students, posted the same critical video or photo or comment at roughly the same time, they could break the school disciplinary process.

5 day suspension per NYT for posting to Twitter:

A 15-year-old student at the high school, Hannah Watters, was suspended for five days for posting images of the crowded hallways on Twitter, according to her mother, Lynne Watters, who said she filed a grievance with the school on Thursday morning.

“I expressed my concerns and disagreement with that punishment,” Ms. Watters said in an email message.

North Paulding’s principal, Gabe Carmona, said he would be in contact with her by the end of the day Friday, she said. Mr. Carmona could not immediately be reached for comment.

On the other hand, that's not a bad way to protect yourself before they get shut down...

[stessier]

Our county is basing school attendance on three metrics -

• Number of cases
• Trend in number of cases
• Percent Positive

We are now testing fewer people - earlier in the month it was 8500-10,000/day. Now it is 5000-6500/day. Guess what - the number of cases is down - from 2000/day to 1200/day. Guess what, the trend in cases is positive - the number of cases/day is dropping. Oddly the percent positive hasn't shown much movement - from about 20% earlier in the month to about 18.5% now, but there is a fair bit of noise there.

Anyway, with 2 out of 3 metrics showing improvement, the schools are looking to open in the hybrid model instead of full online learning that is indicated by the early month numbers.

I hate people who take advantage of those who don't understand math.

[Daehawk]

This cartoon was posted in Chattanooga's newspaper today.

[Smoove_B]

Clorox won't have enough disinfectant wipes until 2021, according to CEO:

Grocery shelves won’t be fully stocked with Clorox’s disinfecting wipes until next year, CEO Benno Dorer told Reuters on Monday, as the world’s biggest cleaning products maker struggles with overwhelming pandemic-led demand for its top product.

Since the start of global lockdowns, makers of hygiene goods have seen a sustained boom in sales. While California-based Clorox typically holds aside excess supply for flu seasons, it says it has been unable to keep up with a six-fold increase in demand for many of its disinfectants.

The company is currently understocked across much of its portfolio, which includes Glad trash bags and Burt’s Bees lip balm. Supply for most products, like liquid bleach, will improve dramatically over the next four to six months - but not wipes, Dorer said.

Clorox products are used in Uber vehicles and United Airlines planes, and are sold by major retailers like Walmart, Amazon and Kroger.

[malchior]

Edit: Also another note, just heard that Fauci and other health officials are now reporting they've been receiving death threats throughout the year. Great. News is off again. I'm sorry I turned it on.

Here's the story.

https://twitter.com/nycjim/status/1291514402680844294

[Holman]

Clorox won't have enough disinfectant wipes until 2021, according to CEO:

Grocery shelves won’t be fully stocked with Clorox’s disinfecting wipes until next year, CEO Benno Dorer told Reuters on Monday, as the world’s biggest cleaning products maker struggles with overwhelming pandemic-led demand for its top product.

Since the start of global lockdowns, makers of hygiene goods have seen a sustained boom in sales. While California-based Clorox typically holds aside excess supply for flu seasons, it says it has been unable to keep up with a six-fold increase in demand for many of its disinfectants.

The company is currently understocked across much of its portfolio, which includes Glad trash bags and Burt’s Bees lip balm. Supply for most products, like liquid bleach, will improve dramatically over the next four to six months - but not wipes, Dorer said.

Clorox products are used in Uber vehicles and United Airlines planes, and are sold by major retailers like Walmart, Amazon and Kroger.

I stuffed three cannisters up my butt per POTUS orders, but now I'm having trouble finding a UV light that fits.

[YellowKing]

“There is a degree of anti-science feeling in this country,” Fauci said.

There's Fauci being Fauci again - understating and being over-polite.

There's not a degree of anti-science feeling in this country. There's an epidemic.

[Skinypupy]