[WW] Crimson Moon III - Game ends in a Draw?

[triggercut]

Folks who have voted with me:

1. Unagi
2. pr0ner
3. Silky

I have leveled accusations against both Mr. Bubbles and Newcastle. We know that all these players are innocents.

Folks who have voted against me:

1. Austin
2. Remus
3. Zurai (from the earliest, he defended Austin)

Those three are your wolves.

Hey Zurai, I've been voting with three innocents. You've been defending the wolves.

You're a liar.

[Remus West]

It comes back to what you both have to say about me. Go village.

BTW Zurai, the voting for today is alreay sealed. I am for the noose.

Oh, and because I think I have this out there somewhere, withdraw Zurai

[triggercut]

BTW, in case you're interested, Lassr was a ditchdigger.

Austin? he was a Carpenter when less lycanthropically leaning.

Also: I find myself wondering if Remus is just majestically blundering as an innocent, and Mr. Bubbles might be our last wolf. I guess we'll find out soon.

[Remus West]

Folks who have voted with me:

1. Unagi
2. pr0ner
3. Silky

I have leveled accusations against both Mr. Bubbles and Newcastle. We know that all these players are innocents.

Folks who have voted against me:

1. Austin yep, wolf
2. Remus Nope, vanilla villager
3. Zurai (from the earliest, he defended Austin) Remains to be seen now doesn't it

Those three are your wolves.

Hey Zurai, I've been voting with three innocents. You've been defending the wolves.

You're a liar.

Color comments added by me. Although, triggercut, you really need to let go of the idea that folks were defending Austin as a player rather than not agreeing with the method used to determine his guilt. I think it would serve the village to go back and check Zurai's second day though since he would have known Lassr's innocence. How did he approach the bandwagon on Austin? What did he have to say regarding the lynch of Lassr the day before?

[Zurai]

3. Zurai (from the earliest, he defended Austin)

For the third time this game:

Do not lie to make your case.

Give me one instance - just one instance - where I defended Austin.

On day 1 I said I did not think either he or Lassr were wolves. That's the closest I've come.

[Remus West]

Also: I find myself wondering if Remus is just majestically blundering as an innocent, and Mr. Bubbles might be our last wolf. I guess we'll find out soon.

Don't hedge until tomorrow, its unbecoming.

[Zurai]

BTW Zurai, the voting for today is alreay sealed. I am for the noose.

Yeah, I missed Mr. Bubbles' vote on my first tally.

I guess we'll have to wait until tomorrow to hang trig.

[triggercut]

3. Zurai (from the earliest, he defended Austin)

For the third time this game:

Do not lie to make your case.

Give me one instance - just one instance - where I defended Austin.

On day 1 I said I did not think either he or Lassr were wolves. That's the closest I've come.

That's been your piteous, shitty refrain this entire game.

It's awfully damned ironic coming from a complete and utter liar.

[Zurai]

That's been your piteous, shitty refrain this entire game.

It's awfully damned ironic coming from a complete and utter liar.

So no proof? Just personal attacks?

[Remus West]

BTW, there is a very interesting Day 2 action. Some interaction between triggercut and Austin. Then some interesting stuff between Zurai and triggercut. Folks should go back and read.

[triggercut]

That's been your piteous, shitty refrain this entire game.

It's awfully damned ironic coming from a complete and utter liar.

So no proof? Just personal attacks?

Day 2 dawns, and I posit analysis that Lassr was innocent and the pool of guilties can be drawn from the 6 who voted for him.

So here's some proof for the village.

I present the idea that Lassr was innocent as a "probable" right as Day 2 starts(I'm trying to avoid detection.) Zurai doesn't accept that line of reasoning at all, not a bit of it. Zurai should've known--he says he's the coroner, after all, and scanned lassr and found him innocent--that Lassr was innocent, and if he was trying to HELP the village, he'd have accepted that particular given.

Look, one person has been active since they would have gotten their first coroner scan, trying to gently and at times not so gently steer the village towards analysis that can be formed with the absolute knowledge gained by a coroner.

The other person has been absent from the thread almost altogether, and offered little of substance either for good or bad for the village.

[triggercut]

Trig, I think you'er waaaaaaaaay too sure of your assertion that no wolves voted for Lassr. If there's anything to be learned from playing these games, it's that there is absolutely no such thing as a sure bet.

Ok. lets take the assumption that Lassr was a werewolf, and shoot it down. Let's say you're on the werewolf team, and you see your teammate Lassr on the verge of hanging. He then announces that he's out for the day. Given that information,

1. It would start off as being extremely unlikely that a werewolf would have an active vote sitting on Lassr, but even if that were the case...

2. When Lassr announced he was leaving, surely any wolf with an active vote on their buddy would've pulled it.

Why would they have pulled it? If they'd determined that Lassr was to be the sacrificial lamb as it were, then not only would they not have pulled their vote, they'd have been actively campaigning to get him lynched BEFORE he could have time to come back to "defend" himself.

He left with 4 active votes. Do you think any of those were a wolf teammate? I cannot even fathom it. No way in hell. If I were a wolf teammate of Lassr's and I had a vote on him at that point, I say "well, I'd hate to lynch Lassr without him being around to defend himself, so I'm pulling my vote for now just to make it fair to him before we string him up!" Easily done without drawing suspicion.

And that would send major red flags up for me, because the day was already dragging on and on and on, and someone withdrawing a vote on one of the leading contenders for the noose AFTER said person had already had a day+ to defend themselves would ring completely and utterly false.

Lassr *maybe* was a wolf.

If so, though, then the other two wolves have to--have to--be pr0ner and Zurai.

because of the unique circumstances by which Lassr died (away for the day), if he was a wolf, we must assume that none of the six who voted for him are also wolves

Thus, I reject these assertions.



That said, I also believe Lassr was innocent. I was saying it all throughout day 1. You're very quickly moving up my suspicio-meter, though, with your absolute insistence that no wolf could possibly have voted for Lassr.

From the early part of Day two I quoted the above.

One of us said: "Lassr was innocent, and that makes Austin very probably a wolf". (I said that, in fact.)

The other of us said "That's waaaaay too much assumption on Lassr, he might be a wolf; Austin might not be a wolf. Oh, and Lassr I think is innocent after all."

Given that we know that Austin was guilty (by way of Unagi's proof), I'll leave it to the village to figure out who was trying to help the village and steer them towards bagging a wolf, and who was trying to muddy the waters.

[Newcastle]

/heads to the center of the village in time for triggercuts counter revelation

And holy smackdown here! what the hell just happened here. Zurai comes out, triggercut counters him. Wow,simply wow. Either brave play Zurai or very clever triggercut.

Questions to both of you:

1. what clues did you leave behind to back you up?
2. What were your rationale for choosing which body?
3. What is your suggested course of action?

All i can think of right now. I will watching and gauging your reactions guys. And please answer them sooner the better...thanks.

[Newcastle]

oh remus what pages also?

[Newcastle]

and also, saw triggercuts reply...will scour them more thoroughly...and zurai? what say you?

[Remus West]

oh remus what pages also?

Eh, I started to make a post of quotes but thought it better for folks to read them all in context.

Regarding triggercuts recent attack on Zurai though, what Zurai was saying was that he rejected triggercut's assertation that no wolves would have voted for a wolf Lassr. Zurai never said he did not think Lassr was a wolf.

I'll go find what page day 2 starts on but I'm not going to post quotes. I'll post a link to the page though.

[Remus West]

link to start of day 2, page 8. Day 1 is worth a reread as well though.

[Silky]

I have done no analysis so this is just more of a gut reaction. Triggercut is probably the least likely villager to get lynched. Zurai is the most probable villager to get lynched (after Remus).

If Triggercut played for the wolf team it really makes no sense for him to come out. He can probably just ride the whole thing out. Zurai on the other hand must do some shenanigans to survive the next days lynch.

Both will survive the night while Pr0ner or myself will be killed. We will want the Remus reading from both.

Maybe the wolf team thought Lassr to be the coroner. Thats the only thing that makes any sense. After waiting for the call of the coroner to stand forward and after everybody checked in a coroner appeared and bought the wolf team more time. Who knows what can happen in two days?

It also very much helps to explain why Triggercut was so sure of Lassr's innocence. I was also "sure" but only from a statistical standpoint.

[Remus West]

It also very much helps to explain why Triggercut was so sure of Lassr's innocence. I was also "sure" but only from a statistical standpoint.

No it doesn't. A wolf would know the exact same thing. And the interpretations triggercut made from there do not add up. As I have repeatedly said, success aside, the means of building the original vote versus Austin were bogus.

This does not mean that triggercut is lying but it does mean it was entirely in the reach of a wolf to do it. Austin came so very close the first day, they may have decided he was dead day 2 so wanted one of their own to lead the assault. Keep in mind that triggercut also rejected any chance of Austin being the Seer BEFORE Unagi spoke up.

[Silky]

It also very much helps to explain why Triggercut was so sure of Lassr's innocence. I was also "sure" but only from a statistical standpoint.

No it doesn't. A wolf would know the exact same thing. And the interpretations triggercut made from there do not add up. As I have repeatedly said, success aside, the means of building the original vote versus Austin were bogus.

This does not mean that triggercut is lying but it does mean it was entirely in the reach of a wolf to do it. Austin came so very close the first day, they may have decided he was dead day 2 so wanted one of their own to lead the assault. Keep in mind that triggercut also rejected any chance of Austin being the Seer BEFORE Unagi spoke up.

Not important. I thought you were a wolf before and I think you are a wolf now. You have been trying to show how Triggercut could be a wolf for some time. Sometimes it is subtle sometimes it is not. I will be the first to agree with you that some of his analysis is a little wacko. I have made the same mistakes as an innocent villager as well.

The important part and the one you can chose to address or not is why would Trigger come forward as a coroner if he was a wolf?

[Remus West]

The important part and the one you can chose to address or not is why would Trigger come forward as a coroner if he was a wolf?

Because he is so trusted right now and if you guys lynch the wrong person tommorrow the game ends. You will have missed on Lassr, Me, and Zurai. Wolves win.

Its exactly his "wacky" means that have attracted my attention.

And yes, I realize you look at is as "well, the game doesn't end because Remus is a wolf." I'm not though and I know this. Hopefully the real Coroner will be able to tell you something that can show that. I'm not sure what else to tell you.

Let me ask you this though. If I were a wolf and were questioning triggercuts methods why would Zurai have done the exact same thing? Would the wolves have put all their eggs in one basket? I doubt it.

Yes, there is some doubt about the timing of Zurai's claim but he did come out the day BEFORE any vote started on him so he had time to try other ideas rather than reach for the desperate one.

All I am asking is that everyone alive tomorrow go back and read the rest of the thread before making the final call. I honestly am torn between the two of them but either way they are not the last wolf so you will need to find one more after that.

[Zurai]

Right, so let's wade through this.

First, I'd like to point out that TWICE now, I've made very reasonable requests for Triggercut to explain his position to me and been ignored. Once, on day 1:

3. Zurai feels about as suspicious as it gets. His specials reasoning just feels wolfish to me.

<blinkblink> I can understand being considered suspicious - I have literally never played one of these games where everyone wasn't saying I'm suspicious - but what about my specials reasoning brings that up?

and once on day 3:

This post/response makes me believe that Zurai is Wolf 3.

Can you please explain your reasoning to me, in small words so I can understand it?

Again, both of those requests were completely and utterly ignored.

Next...

I present the idea that Lassr was innocent as a "probable" right as Day 2 starts(I'm trying to avoid detection.) Zurai doesn't accept that line of reasoning at all, not a bit of it. Zurai should've known--he says he's the coroner, after all, and scanned lassr and found him innocent--that Lassr was innocent, and if he was trying to HELP the village, he'd have accepted that particular given.

And another lie. You even quoted the proof that you're lieing here in your next post:

That said, I also believe Lassr was innocent. I was saying it all throughout day 1.

Look at it from my point of view: I know for a fact that Lassr was innocent. I can't say that outright because it exposes me as the Coroner. On the other hand, here's triggercut also claiming that he's certain Lassr was innocent. Certainty - Coroner = Wolf.

The other person has been absent from the thread almost altogether, and offered little of substance either for good or bad for the village.

Absent from the thread altogether? I have made 34 posts in this thread counting this one since day 1 started. For reference, the totals (not counting ghost posts):

Code: Select all

Name: total posts (posts in day 1, posts in day 2, posts in day 3); average posts per day
Remus West: 162 posts (49, 78, 35); 54
triggercut: 98 posts (11, 65, 22); 33
Austin: 108 posts (60, 48, dead); 54
Unagi: 57 posts (24, 33, dead); 29
Silky: 47 posts (9, 23, 15); 19
Zurai: 34 posts (16, 6, 12); 11
pr0ner: 29 posts (6, 22, 3); 10
Lassr: 25 posts (25, dead, dead); 25
Mr Bubbles: 18 posts (9, 3, 6); 6
Newcastle: 17 posts (5, 3, 9); 6
tru1cy: 12 posts (12, dead, dead); 12

By my count, that's 3 players who have made fewer posts than me that are still alive currently - and one of them really has made literally no posts of substance (Bubbles).

One of us said: "Lassr was innocent, and that makes Austin very probably a wolf". (I said that, in fact.)

The other of us said "That's waaaaay too much assumption on Lassr, he might be a wolf; Austin might not be a wolf. Oh, and Lassr I think is innocent after all."

That isn't what either of us said. For one thing, you said you were willing to entertain the possibility of Lassr being a wolf. For another, I have never once said I thought Lassr was a wolf -- in fact, I have repeatedly said that he was innocent -- merely that I did not agree with your reasoning on day 2.

Throughout this ENTIRE game, you have been constantly hounding me, misrepresenting my statements, and ignoring my calm, simple requests for explanations for your suspicions.

[Silky]

I obviously haven't been all that great at determining what the wolves will and won't do. I am surprised they killed Unagi. Now the silver tongues need to come out. It is easier to hide a voice in a chorus then going solo.

Triggercuts claim is absurd to me if he is a wolf. He was in no danger that I can fathom of being lynched tomorrow so the game ends anyway if you are not a wolf. In addition if you are not they still have a block of two. One wrong vote somewhere will end the game.

I was willing to give Zurai the benefit of the doubt provided he was lynched as the last miss anyway. This much I have already stated. But next to you Zurai was my least trusted unknown quantity.

There are some reasons for this if you or the village would like to hear them. Most of the are meta however and I won't be going back and doing quoting.

I really like to rock the boat on day one if I am unpowered. (Next game I play I will have to do something a little different to shake that up). Reasoning is if I get lynched no big deal. It also allows me to see how others react to the only known quantity I have at the time which is my innocence.

Well I did rock the boat with my lynching call on Triggercut. Zurai reacted to this in the two classic ways a wolf would. Find something you can sink your teeth in and not let go. He now has a valid reason to vote for me and also never waver in it unless some game mechanics like seers or such dictate he change it. This allows him to retain his low profile. No one else is worried about him because he rarely posts and his vote is on some low trusted kook anyway.

The second is the removal of his vote on me. One which he wouldn't remove unless the stars and planets aligned. Now he is in position to kill Lassr. But wait that is suspicious so instead I will tell the village what I am going to do first. Once I let that sink in for a while I will do what I said I am going to do. You see no guilt no fuss and no muss when or if the coroner comes out later. He even didn't have to be on the same vote as you and Austin. A win win I think.

[Zurai]

He now has a valid reason to vote for me and also never waver in it unless some game mechanics like seers or such dictate he change it.

Again, someone's misrepresenting what I said.

I said I would not vote against someone I thought was innocent unless game mechanics dictate otherwise. I never said I wouldn't retract my vote. Especially when I'm the only one on the vote and the chance of that changing is nil.

I'd like to point out that this isn't new. If anyone cares enough to go back to other games I've played, they'll find I almost always follow that same pattern. I don't like being wishy-washy or bandwagoning unless I believe in the reasons behind the bandwagon. Lassr's bandwagon started with a wolf's casual counter-accusation, with absolutely no reasoning behind it. In no game will I switch my vote to someone with literally no reasoning behind the bandwagon.

As you said, that's all very meta-gamey, but it was brought up so I feel compelled to counter.

[Grundbegriff]

We need portraits of Zurai, tru1cy, and Bubbles for the Minion Mugshots.

[pr0ner]

So, Zurai, why, if Triggercut is wolf, would he come out as coroner to object to your claim of being coroner? He could have just eaten you overnight and stayed hidden.

Why would he cast obvious suspicion upon himself when, after myself and Silky, he was the most likely villager to be innocent?

[Zurai]

So, Zurai, why, if Triggercut is wolf, would he come out as coroner to object to your claim of being coroner? He could have just eaten you overnight and stayed hidden.

Because now he doesn't have to eat me overnight - he can get you all to lynch me tomorrow and thus lose the game.

[pr0ner]

So, Zurai, why, if Triggercut is wolf, would he come out as coroner to object to your claim of being coroner? He could have just eaten you overnight and stayed hidden.

Because now he doesn't have to eat me overnight - he can get you all to lynch me tomorrow and thus lose the game.

He could have eaten you overnight, and we lynched someone else, and the village still loses.

Your logic is faulty.

[Zurai]

He could have eaten you overnight, and we lynched someone else, and the village still loses.

Your logic is faulty.

Tell me why I would have come out NOW if I was a wolf? There's still a chance that Mr. Bubbles or Newcastle would be lynched tomorrow.

What do I as a wolf gain?

Why has trig been constantly hounding me the entire game without ever being willing to tell me his reasons?

[Remus West]

I would like to point out to you all that much of what you are deciding upon is an incorrect thought that I am a wolf.

As I said before, triggercut comes forward as the coroner and it condemns the previous one to come out. You lynch him (Zurai) and the game is over.

Please take tomorrow slowly. Allow both claimants to state their case regarding their scan of me before casting a single vote. ANY misplaced vote by an innocent will cause the game to end. Do not come out and vote for either Zurai or triggercut until they have posted the results and you have discussed their claims in light of ALL the information you will have at the time.

I don't know for sure which is which but, knowing I am not a wolf, triggercut's play certainly makes sense for a wolf. However, it also makes sense for a villager who thinks there is only one wolf remaining.
Zurai's play makes sense for a wolf feeling extremely desperate (which I know they are not since they have two left but you can not yet know that). It could be they hope to not lose one of their number and think they can save Zurai, problem is that even if you believed him and triggercut was a vanilla villager you still would have a 50/50 shot at nailing the other wolf and continuing the game.

Now we are at 7
Known:2
Wolves:2
lynch 6 Remus West
night kill 5 pr0ner or Silky
Tommorrow: 5
Known:1
Wolves: 2
lynch wolf 4
night kill 3 pr0ner or Silky
Next day: 3
known: 0
Wolves: 1
lynch Game Ends one way or the other.

Again, please just take your time and let both have their say. triggercut and Zurai can vote right away if they want since one of them has to be a wolf and thus can not be the fatal mistake for the village but the rest of you need to be careful.

[triggercut]

Let's accept the given that Austin was a wolf. I know this because of two pieces of evidence: I scanned his body last night, AND he claimed that pr0ner was a wolf, a fact since proven wrong by Unagi, our priest. The village has only that second piece of evidence to verify Austin guilty, but hopefully it's enough to take it as a given.

Ok then.

1. On day one, the wolves got the village to lynch Lassr. They then killed tru1cy overnight. If I read the rules correctly, with every kill, the wolves find out the ROLE of their kill-ee. So at this point, the wolf team has it 6 villagers vs. 3 wolves with the most powerful village special eliminated.

2. If the wolves can convince the village to lynch another one of their own as Day 2 breaks, they'll be sitting at 4 villagers vs. 3 wolves on Day 3. That's an almost insurmountable lead for the wolves at that point, especially if the wolves can kill a special for the village overnight before Day 3.

3. As it is, the wolves are sitting pretty as day 2 dawns, with things whittled down to 6-3 and the seer gone. They have the initiative.

4. Given all of the above, can someone present a coherent case as to why, precisely the wolves would decide at that point to throw one of their own under the bus?? I can understand grudgingly giving way with a few votes in, but please, please re-read. I was gunning for Austin almost from the earliest on Day 2. I KNEW he had to be a wolf, because that's the only way the day 1 vote added up. I didn't wait for anyone else to suggest Austin, I didn't jump any bandwagon. I drove the freakin' bandwagon, because I recognized that as the Coroner, I was our most powerful remaining special. That's my job.

5. Part of that job, besides driving the bandwagon, is to stay alive. I have run a bunch of fakeouts for the wolves to keep them from thinking I'm the Coroner. Notably: coming up with convoluted and downright headscratching reasoning as to why Lassr was an innocent lynch victim and the below-mentioned condition Coroner outing two-step. On that second bit, notice something from earlier today. You have Silky, Bubbles, and maybe Remus saying that it would be good for the Coroner to come out. I *really* didn't want to come out yet. I figured that Silky and pr0ner are the next two wolf targets, but I could move to the top of that list if I came out. With everyone else saying "come on out Mr. Coroner!" I didn't want to be the one guy saying "I don' think that's such a good idea..." because that'd practically be like putting "Hey, I'm the Coroner!" in my sig. So instead I carefully phrased it so that our Coroner could come out if he had information differing from the two sensible Coroner plays I made. I knew we wouldn't have that happen (although as a sidebar, I was hoping if a wolf came out as me, he'd at least give us some sort of backhanded confirmation as to whom our seer was, since I never scanned tru1cy or Grund...)

6. Finally, scan today's postings by other villagers. All that you get from that is a chorus of "I think triggercut is innocent". Now think about a few things here. Remus is already called for the noose when I post that Zurai is lying about being the Coroner. If I'm a wolf and Zurai is really the coroner, here's what the obvious play is:

A. Remus is an innocent, and lynched. One more down!
B. We wolves kill Zurai overnight. Woohoo! 5-2 is the spread.
C. Without a "coroner" to confirm the ID's of lynchings, if I'm a wolf I can ride this rocket like Slim Pickens right to the last day.

I came out when I did because:

1. It lets me show that Zurai is a wolf....
2. If I came out later, it'd seem suspicious. For instance, Zurai can claim tomorrow that Remus had either status...and it could profoundly effect the voting from there. If someone counterclaims against him, he's fighting the mindset that Zurai is the coroner that's been allowed to roost for a good amount of time. I figured I'd better come out right away before it became tougher to change minds.

[triggercut]

He could have eaten you overnight, and we lynched someone else, and the village still loses.

Your logic is faulty.

Tell me why I would have come out NOW if I was a wolf? There's still a chance that Mr. Bubbles or Newcastle would be lynched tomorrow.

What do I as a wolf gain?

Why has trig been constantly hounding me the entire game without ever being willing to tell me his reasons?

Here are some reasons why I've been suspicious of you:

1. You pulled your vote off Silky just before Lassr got his 6 vote that lynched him.

Earlier in the day you proclaimed that you'd NEVER change your vote unless there was game-changing information, or we were deadlocked with one vote necessary to force a lynch "for a significant time". Day 1 took nearly 4 days to sort out, but when the 5th vote was cast for Lassr, you decided that 50 minutes was "significant time" to change your vote from Silky. If I didn't state it explicitly, I'll do so now: when you changed your vote, I think that it was just a bit of odd chance that Unagi cast the decider on Lassr and kept you from having to do it.

2. On Day 2, after showing that either Austin or Lassr had to be a wolf, I listed the supported theory that if Austin was innocent, you, me, and pr0ner had to be the set containing 2 wolves. I proposed that we start with you, and specifically Remus demurred, preferring instead to string up pr0ner.

3. The analysis of why Lassr was innocent might indeed have been faulty, but I used it to show that Austin was a wolf. I stand firmly by when I state that if Lassr was innocent, Austin HAD to be a wolf. Period, end of story. If you were the Coroner, you'd at least have said "that's interesting, let me analyze that." Instead, with a remarkably short passage of time, you were shooting down Austin as Wolf. If you knew absolutely that Lassr was innocent, Austin as wolf is almost prohibitively likely.

[Zurai]

Earlier in the day you proclaimed that you'd NEVER change your vote unless there was game-changing information, or we were deadlocked with one vote necessary to force a lynch "for a significant time".

For the fourth? fifth? time this game: No. You're reading and ignoring context. I said:

I don't see any reason to change my vote from the person I think is most likely to be a wolf when changing my vote won't end the current day. Perhaps you can explain why you think changing a person's vote from the person they think is most likely to be a wolf to a person they don't think is likely to be a wolf except under extreme circumstances (ie, the game just will not continue without that vote being changed) is a good idea?

And for the record, no one was able to give me an answer to that.

Day 1 took nearly 4 days to sort out, but when the 5th vote was cast for Lassr, you decided that 50 minutes was "significant time" to change your vote from Silky.

Again, no. I said I'd vote for Lassr if the vote was still deadlocked in 3-4 hours from that post (4-5 hours from vote #5 on Lassr, and as you said 4+ days from the start of day 1). I withdrew my Silky vote because it was utterly pointless.

2. On Day 2, after showing that either Austin or Lassr had to be a wolf, I listed the supported theory that if Austin was innocent, you, me, and pr0ner had to be the set containing 2 wolves.

No, actually, you said that pr0ner and I had to be the set containing 2 wolves.

Interesting. I guess I can come around to the remote possibility that Lassr *maybe* was a wolf.

If so, though, then the other two wolves have to--have to--be pr0ner and Zurai.

3. The analysis of why Lassr was innocent might indeed have been faulty

Hell, at this point I'll take just that admission as a victory! You've been saying that was ironclad!!!1one! for days and days now. He was indeed innocent, and I agreed with you, but you really had no solid evidence of him being innocent to back up your "my argument is ironclad' statement.

but I used it to show that Austin was a wolf. I stand firmly by when I state that if Lassr was innocent, Austin HAD to be a wolf. Period, end of story. If you were the Coroner, you'd at least have said "that's interesting, let me analyze that." Instead, with a remarkably short passage of time, you were shooting down Austin as Wolf. If you knew absolutely that Lassr was innocent, Austin as wolf is almost prohibitively likely.

Enlighten me: where did I shoot down Austin as a wolf? I only had 6 posts on day 2, and in only 1 of them did I even MENTION Austin. That was when I corrected you when you said I pulled a vote off Austin at the last minute (yet another lie from you to add to the pile).

[Silky]

I do encourage silky, newcastle, zurai, bubbles, triggercut, and misguided pr0ner, to vote Lassr for noose.

I don't intend to change my vote except under one of two circumstances:

1) Signifigant new information comes out that points to a very likely wolf.
2) The vote stalls at 5 votes for one person to hang for a signifigant amount of time.

I think this is the quote that people are referring to Zurai.

[triggercut]

I do encourage silky, newcastle, zurai, bubbles, triggercut, and misguided pr0ner, to vote Lassr for noose.

I don't intend to change my vote except under one of two circumstances:

1) Signifigant new information comes out that points to a very likely wolf.
2) The vote stalls at 5 votes for one person to hang for a signifigant amount of time.

I think this is the quote that people are referring to Zurai.

Ding ding ding.

[Zurai]

I think this is the quote that people are referring to Zurai.

Right, and I modified that about half an hour later because it was worded poorly. You should remember that since it was you I was responding to.

Here's the complete post:

The way you reacted to Unagi was bizarre in my opinion. Then you will not change your vote unless new information appears that points to a likely wolf. How is that supposed to happen... A seer coming forward on day one? I got news for you. If a seer comes forward then we are in big trouble. The only way a seer will come forward is if he or a wolf in seers clothing is about to be lynched.

That's my general rule of thumb on any day of any WW game, not just for today. I see how easy it is to mis-interpret what I said though. Mea culpa.

Oh yeah the other reason is the vote stalls at five. You want to be the executioner now? The vote has been stalling for days now. It just isn't at your magic number yet.

As I've said four times now, me changing my vote now would have absolutely no effect whatsoever. I don't see any reason to change my vote from the person I think is most likely to be a wolf when changing my vote won't end the current day. Perhaps you can explain why you think changing a person's vote from the person they think is most likely to be a wolf to a person they don't think is likely to be a wolf except under extreme circumstances (ie, the game just will not continue without that vote being changed) is a good idea?

Also, that rule is a general rule, not specifically day 1. Again, easily misinterpreted.

Let me re-phrase both:

IN GENERAL, I will not change my vote unless signifigant new information comes forward that points to a very likely wolf, or if the vote is long-term stalled at a point where my vote will end the stall.

[Remus West]

I do encourage silky, newcastle, zurai, bubbles, triggercut, and misguided pr0ner, to vote Lassr for noose.

I don't intend to change my vote except under one of two circumstances:

1) Signifigant new information comes out that points to a very likely wolf.
2) The vote stalls at 5 votes for one person to hang for a signifigant amount of time.

I think this is the quote that people are referring to Zurai.

It was a pretty quick jump from 5 votes to 6 with Unagi's killing vote. triggercut actually called me out on that earlier.

[Remus West]

As for the wolves killing a claimant to the Coroner role, that idea is just stupid. The Coroner has no way to prove himself the way Silky and pr0ner are proven. NO WAY the wolves take a player the can cast doubt on instead of taking out a known innocent. NO WAY.

B. We wolves kill Zurai overnight. Woohoo! 5-2 is the spread.

5-2 spread with 2 certain knowns and no way to get rid of both before the final day if the village gets one of you.

Once again, this is not to say that triggercut is a liar. This is to say there is no way for the village to be certain of EITHER before tomorrow. You may be able to make more sense of this when I am gone.

Please do not make up your mind before all the information is in.

[triggercut]

No, actually, you said that pr0ner and I had to be the set containing 2 wolves.

Right. I knew I was the Village Coroner, and hence not a wolf. What were you hiding, wolfboy?

Interesting. I guess I can come around to the remote possibility that Lassr *maybe* was a wolf.

If so, though, then the other two wolves have to--have to--be pr0ner and Zurai.

3. The analysis of why Lassr was innocent might indeed have been faulty

Hell, at this point I'll take just that admission as a victory! You've been saying that was ironclad!!!1one! for days and days now. He was indeed innocent, and I agreed with you, but you really had no solid evidence of him being innocent to back up your "my argument is ironclad' statement.

My reasoning for Lassr's innocence may have had assumptions based on probability in it. I knew all along that Lassr was innocent. My task (you know, to be helpful to the village and not ignore them) was to show Lassr's innocence while trying to remain hidden as the Coroner.

[Silky]

First to Remus. I don't understand what you are trying to say. Yes Unagi looked suspicious to me at the time. I think we can all rule out that he was a wolf. If you are trying to say that Zurai didn't have an opportunity to follow through with his personal rules that I would agree with you.

To Zurai.

I do not understand the practical difference between

IN GENERAL, I will not change my vote unless signifigant new information comes forward that points to a very likely wolf, or if the vote is long-term stalled at a point where my vote will end the stall.

and

I don't intend to change my vote except under one of two circumstances:

1) Signifigant new information comes out that points to a very likely wolf.
2) The vote stalls at 5 votes for one person to hang for a signifigant amount of time.

I did not want to argue with you about it at the time because I would not have welcomed more forum judo. I honestly do not know what your argument is Zurai. Is it that you have a personal code of conduct apparently that you adhere to regardless of role assigned? If that is the case then I can only not argue with you because it would be circular at best.