Octopus Overlords

Unagi wrote: ↑Sat Oct 28, 2023 4:19 pm I imagine it was mostly about $truggling to rai$e money, as they never had any chance of gaining any traction in the polls.

I think Brian's point is that money would have flowed like water if he wasn't such a dead fish.

Holman wrote: ↑Sat Oct 28, 2023 4:25 pm Now that Mike Johnson is Speaker, I have to wonder if Pence regrets doing the right thing on January 6.

In retrospect, it would have been so easy to give away the Republic and give Christian Nationalists a secure seat at the new table in Trumplandia. There must be some part of him that thinks he wasn't bold enough.

I think he knew what the cost of that would have been, and how history would remember him and he wanted no part of it. Would he willingly have enjoyed the benefits of a stolen election? Almost certainly. Being remembered as the guy who stole it? I think he knew what the right thing to do was there at the end and he did it. That he did it while under a threat of real violence is a gold star for him.

Of course I'm not saying he's a hero. Not destroying democracy is a pretty low bar. Still, I think he did the right thing and knew it.

GreenGoo wrote: ↑Sat Oct 28, 2023 5:14 pm

Holman wrote: ↑Sat Oct 28, 2023 4:25 pm Now that Mike Johnson is Speaker, I have to wonder if Pence regrets doing the right thing on January 6.

In retrospect, it would have been so easy to give away the Republic and give Christian Nationalists a secure seat at the new table in Trumplandia. There must be some part of him that thinks he wasn't bold enough.

I think he knew what the cost of that would have been, and how history would remember him and he wanted no part of it. Would he willingly have enjoyed the benefits of a stolen election? Almost certainly. Being remembered as the guy who stole it? I think he knew what the right thing to do was there at the end and he did it. That he did it while under a threat of real violence is a gold star for him.

Of course I'm not saying he's a hero. Not destroying democracy is a pretty low bar. Still, I think he did the right thing and knew it.

Furthermore, he swore an oath on a Bible to protect the Constitution, so help him God. His faith might be why he kept that oath.

Kraken wrote: ↑Sat Oct 28, 2023 5:46 pm

GreenGoo wrote: ↑Sat Oct 28, 2023 5:14 pm

Holman wrote: ↑Sat Oct 28, 2023 4:25 pm Now that Mike Johnson is Speaker, I have to wonder if Pence regrets doing the right thing on January 6.

In retrospect, it would have been so easy to give away the Republic and give Christian Nationalists a secure seat at the new table in Trumplandia. There must be some part of him that thinks he wasn't bold enough.

I think he knew what the cost of that would have been, and how history would remember him and he wanted no part of it. Would he willingly have enjoyed the benefits of a stolen election? Almost certainly. Being remembered as the guy who stole it? I think he knew what the right thing to do was there at the end and he did it. That he did it while under a threat of real violence is a gold star for him.

Of course I'm not saying he's a hero. Not destroying democracy is a pretty low bar. Still, I think he did the right thing and knew it.

Furthermore, he swore an oath on a Bible to protect the Constitution, so help him God. His faith might be why he kept that oath.

I'm not so sure.

I grew up as Reagan Youth (junior high to high school was 1980-1987), and my high-school years were spent at an Evangelical school that is now in the process of transforming itself into a Christian college.

The Constitution is *nothing* compared to the Bible for these people. Or, rather, the Constitution is a document easily converted to Biblical interpretation regardless of history or what the Founders wrote and what any of the rest of us think.

Pence might right now be realizing that he has lagged behind the GOP trend towards theocracy. Maybe he'll retire from political life, but if he endorses Trump then we'll know he's making a play for Gayfinder General or something.

GreenGoo wrote: ↑Sat Oct 28, 2023 5:10 pm

Unagi wrote: ↑Sat Oct 28, 2023 4:19 pm I imagine it was mostly about $truggling to rai$e money, as they never had any chance of gaining any traction in the polls.

I think Brian's point is that money would have flowed like water if he wasn't such a dead fish.

Yeah. I was speaking to the AP headline. (I had not even read Brian’s reply to it)

And to them, I only meant that cynically speaking - if Pence was somehow raising money but still “not gaining any traction in the polls”, he’d find a reason to keep raising the money. I argue that it’s simply the lack of money that has him throwing in the towel.

GreenGoo wrote: ↑Sat Oct 28, 2023 5:14 pm

Holman wrote: ↑Sat Oct 28, 2023 4:25 pm Now that Mike Johnson is Speaker, I have to wonder if Pence regrets doing the right thing on January 6.

In retrospect, it would have been so easy to give away the Republic and give Christian Nationalists a secure seat at the new table in Trumplandia. There must be some part of him that thinks he wasn't bold enough.

I think he knew what the cost of that would have been, and how history would remember him and he wanted no part of it. Would he willingly have enjoyed the benefits of a stolen election? Almost certainly. Being remembered as the guy who stole it? I think he knew what the right thing to do was there at the end and he did it. That he did it while under a threat of real violence is a gold star for him.

Of course I'm not saying he's a hero. Not destroying democracy is a pretty low bar. Still, I think he did the right thing and knew it.

+1 to all of this. Just my impression after reading and hearing interviews, etc.

I'm not sure. I think a lot of people overestimated the likely consequences of participating in an effort to overturn the election. If Pence knew that he probably would have gotten away with it...would he still refuse?

One other thing I suppose is that the risk / benefit calculation was off for Pence. That is, he was being asked to bear a lot of risk in terms of supporting a coup, but the benefits would go disproportionately to Trump (since he was the one who would be President as a result).

El Guapo wrote: ↑Mon Oct 30, 2023 1:43 pm That is, he was being asked to bear a lot of risk in terms of supporting a coup, but the benefits would go disproportionately to Trump (since he was the one who would be President as a result).

That is the way of TFG. I don't get people falling on the sword for him. It makes no sense to me. Loyalty is what's most important to him, so he said. But the only people he's shown loyalty to are to those who can still do for him.

LordMortis wrote: ↑Mon Oct 30, 2023 2:08 pm

El Guapo wrote: ↑Mon Oct 30, 2023 1:43 pm That is, he was being asked to bear a lot of risk in terms of supporting a coup, but the benefits would go disproportionately to Trump (since he was the one who would be President as a result).

That is the way of TFG. I don't get people falling on the sword for him. It makes no sense to me. Loyalty is what's most important to him, so he said. But the only people he's shown loyalty to are to those who can still do for him.

I’ve also wondered about this. He must really have a very strong, personal 1-1 charisma, and/or the people deciding to be on ‘personal team Trump’ are:
A. Idiots

B. Star-struck, making them act like A.

C. Will do anything for the limelight/15s of fame, even if it means their own probable ruin (think Lindsey F. Graham and his desperate need for relevance)

D. Realize and acknowledge the danger, but do it anyway hoping to cash out on some future monetary reward: book deal or speaking your/talk show circuit after the fact.

I suspect a LOT are in “D”.

Carpet_pissr wrote: ↑Tue Oct 31, 2023 9:11 amC. Will do anything for the limelight/15s of fame, even if it means their own probable ruin (think Lindsey F. Graham and his desperate need for relevance)

Off-topic but did anyone else feel that Graham pretty much hid under a rock after the Georgia stuff came out? He only slithered out recently to speak about Israel mostly.

malchior wrote: ↑Tue Oct 31, 2023 9:44 am

Carpet_pissr wrote: ↑Tue Oct 31, 2023 9:11 amC. Will do anything for the limelight/15s of fame, even if it means their own probable ruin (think Lindsey F. Graham and his desperate need for relevance)

Off-topic but did anyone else feel that Graham pretty much hid under a rock after the Georgia stuff came out? He only slithered out recently to speak about Israel mostly.

His face was very recently eaten by leopards, very publicly (I posted a video in one of the threads) so he currently has no mouth, as it were (but must scream).

Carpet_pissr wrote: ↑Tue Oct 31, 2023 9:11 am

LordMortis wrote: ↑Mon Oct 30, 2023 2:08 pm

El Guapo wrote: ↑Mon Oct 30, 2023 1:43 pm That is, he was being asked to bear a lot of risk in terms of supporting a coup, but the benefits would go disproportionately to Trump (since he was the one who would be President as a result).

That is the way of TFG. I don't get people falling on the sword for him. It makes no sense to me. Loyalty is what's most important to him, so he said. But the only people he's shown loyalty to are to those who can still do for him.

I’ve also wondered about this. He must really have a very strong, personal 1-1 charisma, and/or the people deciding to be on ‘personal team Trump’ are:
A. Idiots

B. Star-struck, making them act like A.

C. Will do anything for the limelight/15s of fame, even if it means their own probable ruin (think Lindsey F. Graham and his desperate need for relevance)

D. Realize and acknowledge the danger, but do it anyway hoping to cash out on some future monetary reward: book deal or speaking your/talk show circuit after the fact.

I suspect a LOT are in “D”.

I think part of it is that the GOP has become so radicalized over the past few decades that the areas of substantive disagreement between Trump and the rest of the GOP are fairly small. And since we have a two party system, in their minds at least they have to decide between Trump and Democratic Party socialism. It's no accident that the Republicans most consistently opposed to Trump have been foreign policy conservatives, because the areas of substantive disagreement (such as not surrendering to Putin) are generally very large.

Plus any disloyalty is likely to cause them their current and easiest and most lucrative future jobs (GOP consulting / lobbying).

Not good news on the Arab American front:

https://time.com/6330102/biden-israel-g ... ans-trump/

I’m seriously worried Trump will actually win. A year ago I would have said otherwise.

It's been a very real possibility all along. It's close to a coin flip because of the EC and the durable coalition that seemingly has formed.

I was just thinking how terrified and stressed I will be at this point next year, regardless of how the polls are looking like.

Even my usually optimistic self is prepping for the worst. I don't even want to think about it, but the timeline we're in shows no signs of improving.

I'll say from the cybertrenchs that foreigners seem to be much more realistic about this than Americans. There are now multiple accounts of summits occurring in Europe discussing what they have to do with America falling apart. I'm sure they're holding out hope we pull through but they know that it probably a matter of time.

Worse they have no real idea what that means and the world has some real bad actors out there who see the precipitous decline that has occurred. China might have internal issues right now but they still have a lot of momentum.

YellowKing wrote: ↑Wed Nov 01, 2023 9:31 am Even my usually optimistic self is prepping for the worst. I don't even want to think about it, but the timeline we're in shows no signs of improving.

The big wild card is what's going to happen on Trump's criminal trials over the next year. Like, it's within the reasonable realm of possibility that he could be in jail this time next year.

El Guapo wrote: ↑Wed Nov 01, 2023 10:27 am

YellowKing wrote: ↑Wed Nov 01, 2023 9:31 am Even my usually optimistic self is prepping for the worst. I don't even want to think about it, but the timeline we're in shows no signs of improving.

The big wild card is what's going to happen on Trump's criminal trials over the next year. Like, it's within the reasonable realm of possibility that he could be in jail this time next year.

And still be elected or contesting the election shortly after this time next year.

LordMortis wrote: ↑Wed Nov 01, 2023 10:29 am

El Guapo wrote: ↑Wed Nov 01, 2023 10:27 am

YellowKing wrote: ↑Wed Nov 01, 2023 9:31 am Even my usually optimistic self is prepping for the worst. I don't even want to think about it, but the timeline we're in shows no signs of improving.

The big wild card is what's going to happen on Trump's criminal trials over the next year. Like, it's within the reasonable realm of possibility that he could be in jail this time next year.

And still be elected or contesting the election shortly after this time next year.

Right. Unfortunately it is a also a wild card in terms of what the reaction to his conviction would be. FWIW I do believe that it would matter to enough swing voters to make Trump non-viable, but unfortunately that's not a guarantee these days.

I may have missed it here, but there is a lawsuit to disqualify TFG from the ballot in Colorado based on the 14th Amendment language about barring an insurrectionist. Day 2 update

Jaymann wrote: ↑Wed Nov 01, 2023 11:01 am I may have missed it here, but there is a lawsuit to disqualify TFG from the ballot in Colorado based on the 14th Amendment language about barring an insurrectionist. Day 2 update

What's the point of filing something like this in Colorado? Trump's not winning Colorado regardless (or if he is, then he's winning elsewhere so that it doesn't matter). But this would threaten to open the floodgates of counter-litigation on this stuff.

Precedent. Encouragement for others.

There's some alarm tonight over a pair of polls that show Biden losing to trump by significant margins in 5/6 swing states. Polls a year away from an election are subject to change, shall we say; a lot can happen in a year, such as criminal convictions. It's still cause for concern, but the aspect that baffles me most is voters' overwhelming opinion that trump is much better for the economy, by a margin of roughly 60/35. 51% of those surveyed believe the unemployment rate is at a 50-year high when the exact opposite is true. Inflation is drifting down, wages are still rising at a healthy clip, unions are growing in size and influence, and consumer spending is strong even as consumer sentiment is awful. In short, the economy is doing remarkably well amidst serious headwinds coming from multiple directions -- so why doesn't it feel that way to most voters? Why is the economy Biden's lowest rating? Why are working-class people in particular flocking to trump?

Increasing inequality? That could skew perceptions.

The Inflation Reduction Act, the Chips and Science act, the bipartisan infrastructure bill, and more are major Biden achievements that explain why the Fed isn't tanking the economy. Most of those $trillions are being invested in red states. Bidenomics is working. Why does the vast majority believe otherwise? Am I just deluded, or do you have to be a political nerd to understand it?

I hypothesize that gas prices are a big factor. People remember $2 gas under trump and forget why it got so cheap.

Kraken wrote: ↑Mon Nov 06, 2023 12:51 amWhy is the economy Biden's lowest rating? Why are working-class people in particular flocking to trump?

The simplest answer? Rampant misinformation. They get bad information from social media and the media. The media has for a year been telling them how bad the economy is. They keep telling them we are on the edge of recession.

Kraken wrote: ↑Mon Nov 06, 2023 2:58 am The Inflation Reduction Act, the Chips and Science act, the bipartisan infrastructure bill, and more are major Biden achievements that explain why the Fed isn't tanking the economy. Most of those $trillions are being invested in red states. Bidenomics is working. Why does the vast majority believe otherwise? Am I just deluded, or do you have to be a political nerd to understand it?

I hypothesize that gas prices are a big factor. People remember $2 gas under trump and forget why it got so cheap.

The average person on the street doesn't know about these. They will tell you however that inflation has been the worst in 40 years and crime is out of control and our country is being invaded.

Here's a new one for me. Disease spread in the US was under control but then illegal immigration got out of control and now it's rampant. It has nothing to do with increased worldwide mobility over the last 30 years concurrent with the ever expanding belief that public health is an individual choice.

malchior wrote: ↑Mon Nov 06, 2023 8:48 am

Kraken wrote: ↑Mon Nov 06, 2023 12:51 amWhy is the economy Biden's lowest rating? Why are working-class people in particular flocking to trump?

The simplest answer? Rampant misinformation. They get bad information from social media and the media. The media has for a year been telling them how bad the economy is. They keep telling them we are on the edge of recession.

I did an eyeroll when the NYT reported on last week's Goldilocks jobs report with "Declining jobs market weighs on Biden reelection."

Kraken wrote: ↑Mon Nov 06, 2023 2:58 am The Inflation Reduction Act, the Chips and Science act, the bipartisan infrastructure bill, and more are major Biden achievements that explain why the Fed isn't tanking the economy. Most of those $trillions are being invested in red states. Bidenomics is working. Why does the vast majority believe otherwise? Am I just deluded, or do you have to be a political nerd to understand it?

I hypothesize that gas prices are a big factor. People remember $2 gas under trump and forget why it got so cheap.

Have you looked at mortgage and auto loan rates? Good luck buying a house or affording a new car right now. I work for one of the top auto lenders in the US and the market is pretty much hell. Super high risk, very little reward.

I kick myself for not buying a home during the pandemic when rates were ridiculously low.

coopasonic wrote: ↑Mon Nov 06, 2023 5:08 pm

Kraken wrote: ↑Mon Nov 06, 2023 2:58 am The Inflation Reduction Act, the Chips and Science act, the bipartisan infrastructure bill, and more are major Biden achievements that explain why the Fed isn't tanking the economy. Most of those $trillions are being invested in red states. Bidenomics is working. Why does the vast majority believe otherwise? Am I just deluded, or do you have to be a political nerd to understand it?

I hypothesize that gas prices are a big factor. People remember $2 gas under trump and forget why it got so cheap.

Have you looked at mortgage and auto loan rates? Good luck buying a house or affording a new car right now. I work for one of the top auto lenders in the US and the market is pretty much hell. Super high risk, very little reward.

Piling onto that:
Try to afford college.
Try to buy a house
Try to buy a car

Those shouldn't be lumped together, but for young people, even youngish people, it's a pretty nasty trifecta right now. Tuition was already out of control, and the housing and auto markets are trouble for different reasons.

coopasonic wrote: ↑Mon Nov 06, 2023 5:08 pm

Kraken wrote: ↑Mon Nov 06, 2023 2:58 am The Inflation Reduction Act, the Chips and Science act, the bipartisan infrastructure bill, and more are major Biden achievements that explain why the Fed isn't tanking the economy. Most of those $trillions are being invested in red states. Bidenomics is working. Why does the vast majority believe otherwise? Am I just deluded, or do you have to be a political nerd to understand it?

I hypothesize that gas prices are a big factor. People remember $2 gas under trump and forget why it got so cheap.

Have you looked at mortgage and auto loan rates? Good luck buying a house or affording a new car right now. I work for one of the top auto lenders in the US and the market is pretty much hell. Super high risk, very little reward.

We've been house-hunting since last March. I'm keenly aware of what happened to the housing market in that time. I'm also hopeful that it will start to thaw by spring.

hepcat wrote: ↑Mon Nov 06, 2023 5:10 pm I kick myself for not buying a home during the pandemic when rates were ridiculously low.

We lucked into some great timing and moved in January 2022, right before rates started to rise. I think about it every time I see a new house listed in our area and think, “We could never afford that with current interest rates.”

What amazes me is how prices don’t really seem to be impacted that much. Houses certainly stay on the market a lot longer than before, but the asking prices seem every bit as high as they ever were. I would have thought we’d start to see those come down by now given what’s happened to interest rates.

Carpet_pissr wrote: ↑Mon Nov 06, 2023 5:28 pm

coopasonic wrote: ↑Mon Nov 06, 2023 5:08 pm

Kraken wrote: ↑Mon Nov 06, 2023 2:58 am The Inflation Reduction Act, the Chips and Science act, the bipartisan infrastructure bill, and more are major Biden achievements that explain why the Fed isn't tanking the economy. Most of those $trillions are being invested in red states. Bidenomics is working. Why does the vast majority believe otherwise? Am I just deluded, or do you have to be a political nerd to understand it?

I hypothesize that gas prices are a big factor. People remember $2 gas under trump and forget why it got so cheap.

Have you looked at mortgage and auto loan rates? Good luck buying a house or affording a new car right now. I work for one of the top auto lenders in the US and the market is pretty much hell. Super high risk, very little reward.

Piling onto that:
Try to afford college.
Try to buy a house
Try to buy a car

Those shouldn't be lumped together, but for young people, even youngish people, it's a pretty nasty trifecta right now. Tuition was already out of control, and the housing and auto markets are trouble for different reasons.

The trying to afford college thing is a real PITA. I knew it was bad, but when my daughter started applying this year I wanted to just stab myself. We're busy applying for any scholarship that exists and applying to some schools that offer crazy funding. Princeton is crazy cheap, but getting in is pretty much impossible, but we're trying anyway. That would be 12,500 a year for everything, but it's like 4 percent acceptance rate. And she hasn't saved any whales or won the national fencing championships.

Kurth wrote:We lucked into some great timing and moved in January 2022, right before rates started to rise. I think about it every time I see a new house listed in our area and think, “We could never afford that with current interest rates.”

Same, I give my wife all the credit (she's the one with the accounting and finance degrees). She was watching things like a hawk and she knew when to pounce. We wound up locking in when interest rates were at about their lowest point, and right before housing costs skyrocketed. There's no way in hell I could afford my house if I was buying from scratch right now.

The current struggle is needing a new car. But there's no way right now with the rates what they are.

I think you can still find ok rates on new cars if you have good credit. The rates aren't as high as the mortgages. I still see things like 3.9, but it's a lot more rare. The biggest issue is that you are paying sticker price or more. I've never even come close to paying sticker price my entire life. And paying more than sticker? Kill me.

Octavious wrote: ↑Mon Nov 06, 2023 5:57 pm I think you can still find ok rates on new cars if you have good credit. The rates aren't as high as the mortgages. I still see things like 3.9, but it's a lot more rare. The biggest issue is that you are paying sticker price or more. I've never even come close to paying sticker price my entire life. And paying more than sticker? Kill me.

Is that still happening? We bought our electric Hyundai Kona during the period when you couldn't find new car inventories to save your life and the price of used cars was prohibitive. We paid a "$5K" dealer "fee" on top of the sticker price, and I thought that was insane. Can't believe that's still going on.

We bought a Kia three weeks ago at $4K above sticker. We had been hunting that particular vehicle for two-plus months and they were getting snapped up same day. Which is what we did because I happened to see it being unloaded from the delivery truck.