Political Randomness

[Holman]

He's a lunatic only if you're​ not a religious conservative.

And if you get all your news from Fox, he's not even a child molester.

[Pyperkub]

He's a lunatic only if you're​ not a religious conservative.

A religious conservative who believes the power of the state should be used to force his extremist religious beliefs on everyone else.

[GreenGoo]

I am aware of the definition of religious conservative.

[Jaymann]

It did not appear he was defining religious conservative, but referring to obnoxious behavior of some religious conservatives.

[Pyperkub]

It did not appear he was defining religious conservative, but referring to obnoxious behavior of some religious conservatives.

Bingo!

In other words, there are religious conservatives who aren't authoritarian lunatics.

[GreenGoo]

Oh, that changes everything, then.

Let me know when one of them runs for election.

[Holman]

Oh, that changes everything, then.

Let me know when one of them runs for election.

2012

[GreenGoo]

Iffy. Governor of a blue state with lots of questions about whether religious conservatives would accept him as one of their own.

And let's face it, religious conservative in America should really be called Protestant conservative.

[Holman]

Iffy. Governor of a blue state with lots of questions about whether religious conservatives would accept him as one of their own.

And let's face it, religious conservative in America should really be called Protestant conservative.

There are plenty of religious conservatives who are not authoritarians, though. The word you want is probably "theocrat" or "Christianist."

FWIW many hardcore Evangelicals reject the label "Protestant" out of the gate. They consider the whole Cat-Prot divide irrelevant as they claim to trace back only to Jesus rather than to Luther/Calvin/Zwingli.

[Defiant]

Since I didn't want to resurrect the Trump election thread (well, part of me kind of did, but most of me didn't want to)...

Remember how people had said that Trump won because of "economic anxiety"? Turns out that people who shifted from Democrat to Republican had *lower* levels of economic anxiety:

Leaving the Democratic Party was most strongly associated with negative attitudes about immigration, unfavorable attitudes toward Muslims, self-identification as more ideologically conservative, more conservative economic views, and lower levels of economic anxiety.

https://www.voterstudygroup.org/publica ... ty-hoppers

[Remus West]

People of color and those under 45 were among the likeliest to switch out of the Republican Party, while Democrats have lost non-college white voters and those over 45.

Sort of highlights that racist nature of Trump's campaign and the Republican party in general right now. They lost diversity while the Dems lost old people and uneducated whites.

[pr0ner]

You think Roy Moore is bad? Here are two examples of Republicans trying to get into office in 2018.

1) Paul Nehlen. He's the guy who primaried Paul Ryan in 2016, and will do so again if Ryan doesn't retire in 2018. He is a full blown white nationalist. He's appeared on an anti-Semtic, white power podcast called "Fash the Nation". He's currently in a Twitter war with Jewish attorney Ari Cohn, wherein Nehlen is using neo-Nazi code words and saying Cohn isn't white because he's Jewish. It's horrific, so I won't link any specific tweets here, but it's about what you'd expect. I would hope that if Ryan does retire sanity prevails and Democrats pick up that seat, but who knows.

2) Craig R. Brittain. He's currently running for Senate in Arizona to replace Jeff Flake. Brittain's such a loon that he can't even get his Twitter account verified. He's a former revenge porn site operator, he considers himself "anarcho-capitalist", and his platform includes things such as decriminalizing marijuana and ending taxation (which he considers to be theft). He's also a white nationalist, and he's made up tweets that make it appear Trump is endorsing him over Kelli Ward (who has her own loony issues).

The Republican fringe is getting worse all the time.

[gilraen]

The Republican fringe is getting worse all the time.

There's hoping that having such crazy Republican contenders will help Democrat candidates in Wisconsin and Arizona, just like it did in Alabama (and Alabama is a *much* redder state than either one of those).

[Captain Caveman]

The Republican fringe is getting worse all the time.

That's because they're no longer the fringe.

[El Guapo]

The Republican fringe is getting worse all the time.

There's hoping that having such crazy Republican contenders will help Democrat candidates in Wisconsin and Arizona, just like it did in Alabama (and Alabama is a *much* redder state than either one of those).

Fringe candidates have probably cost the GOP at least 4 senate seats since 2010 - Todd Akin, Christine O'Donnell, Roy Moore, Ken Buck... possibly one or two examples I'm missing. That the Democrats have a 50/50 shot at the Senate in 2018 given the map is a blinding indicator of the political costs of GOP insanity.

[Remus West]

Is it time to simply admit that the Republican party has ceased to exist and has been replaced by a neo-nazi white nationalist party? Given that the core values of the traditional Republican party are now fringe elements compared with what is their main base today I think it over due to simply acknowledge how horrible they have become with the appropriate name.

[Zaxxon]

Craig R. Brittain.

Mr. Fed has been all over him.

[Defiant]

Fringe candidates have probably cost the GOP at least 4 senate seats since 2010 - Todd Akin, Christine O'Donnell, Roy Moore, Ken Buck... possibly one or two examples I'm missing.

Courtesy of 538, Sharron Angle and Richard Mourdock

[malchior]

Super wonky discussion. I wish they weren't talking about a symptom of the disease versus the actual disease. IMO they almost got there in the discussion. I suspect Nate and I would agree since he clearly talks about them in a root cause way. Namely the +5% skew on House control, Super PAC money, and the Fox propaganda machine. The only things he leaves out that have major impact are the Social Media bubbles and the over-influence of "conservative" think tanks...oh and Russia.

[Holman]

I remember in 1991 I had just graduated college and was working in a bookstore. On my lunch break I would get in my car and eat my sandwich and listen to Rush Limbaugh, which at the time felt like just some sort of freakshow curiosity.

It didn't even occur to me how dystopic it would be for that kind of voice to become dominant. It just didn't seem possible.

[GreenGoo]

infowars was invited to the white house. We're WAY past Limbaugh.

[AWS260]

Public intellectual slapfight!

Cornel West, one of the the most prominent African American intellectuals of the Baby Boomer generation, wrote a very critical essay about Ta-Nehisi Coates, the most prominent African American intellectual of my generation.

It is clear that his narrow racial tribalism and myopic political neoliberalism has no place for keeping track of Wall Street greed, US imperial crimes or black elite indifference to poverty.
***
I stand with those like Robin DG Kelley, Gerald Horne, Imani Perry and Barbara Ransby who represent the radical wing of the black freedom struggle. We refuse to disconnect white supremacy from the realities of class, empire, and other forms of domination – be it ecological, sexual, or others.

The same cannot be said for Ta-Nehisi Coates.

Which led to this tweetstorm from Jelani Cobb, a New Yorker writer, who calls West a hypocritical ivory tower elitist. It's fairly entertaining.

[pr0ner]

In another turn of events to everything, Coates has deleted his Twitter account over the spat with West.

Some white nationalists, like Richard Spencer, are taking credit for Coates leaving Twitter.

[Captain Caveman]

My most viral twitter moment was when Coates retweeted one of my posts. It's one and only time I've been inundated with an avalanche of notifications. I felt pretty cool for a couple of hours.

[Holman]

That's a shame. Coates is brilliant and insightful. West has been nothing but a contrarian dick for about 15 years.

Time to subscribe to The Atlantic.

[El Guapo]

Coates is 100x the intellect that West is.

[El Guapo]

So election night in Virginia left the VA House of Delegates with a 51-49 GOP advantage (after a 67-33 advantage at the start of the night), with a few recounts pending. After one of those recounts, the democratic candidate is now the winner with a margin of literally one vote.

So as of now, it looks like it'll be 50-50 and the parties will have to figure out a power-sharing arrangement. There are a few more recounts, but while the margin in thin it looks like the GOP candidate is likely to hold on in each of them. There is a chance for democrats to win one more seat - basically in one of the races (where the GOP candidate leads by something like 83 votes), several hundred voters were routed to the wrong precinct by an election official. So democrats are likely to petition in court for a redo of that election - I assume that's unlikely, but who knows.

[gilraen]

The estimate in the Virginia elections is that about 200k more Democrat votes were cast than Republican votes. And yet the state is so badly gerrymandered that with all that voter support Democrats still only managed to eke out a tie. It's truly sickening.

[Holman]

The estimate in the Virginia elections is that about 200k more Democrat votes were cast than Republican votes. And yet the state is so badly gerrymandered that with all that voter support Democrats still only managed to eke out a tie. It's truly sickening.

Yeah. Somehow a greater than 53%-43% split -barely- produces a 50-50 tie.

[El Guapo]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/943530754881015808

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/943534225931857921

Passing the tax bill polling at around 25% favorability ought to right this ship, though.

[Fitzy]

I suspect a lot will depend on how much the tax cut shows up on actual paychecks. People will forget their dislike of the bill if there is a noticeable increase in their pay. They'll be pissed if it's tiny or eaten up by other increases and the Democrats can get the message out about how much the rich are gaining without helping the less well off.

[El Guapo]

I suspect a lot will depend on how much the tax cut shows up on actual paychecks. People will forget their dislike of the bill if there is a noticeable increase in their pay. They'll be pissed if it's tiny or eaten up by other increases and the Democrats can get the message out about how much the rich are gaining without helping the less well off.

Nate Silver had a good (brief) Twitter thread on why that's probably not the case.

The changes will be modest (to the extent that people get them), and probably not easily tied to the bill in a way that people will understand.

Meanwhile, the media coverage (accurately) shows how overwhelming tilted towards the rich the bill is. Plus that's what people generally assume that Republicans will do anyway, AND that's before you factor in that Trump's people seemingly can't help themselves from doing things like this:

[El Guapo]

Also, I'm trying to remember where I saw this, but the Bush tax cuts did not get more popular over time, and they were both more straightforward and (somehow) less tilted toward the rich.

[El Guapo]

So election night in Virginia left the VA House of Delegates with a 51-49 GOP advantage (after a 67-33 advantage at the start of the night), with a few recounts pending. After one of those recounts, the democratic candidate is now the winner with a margin of literally one vote.

So as of now, it looks like it'll be 50-50 and the parties will have to figure out a power-sharing arrangement. There are a few more recounts, but while the margin in thin it looks like the GOP candidate is likely to hold on in each of them. There is a chance for democrats to win one more seat - basically in one of the races (where the GOP candidate leads by something like 83 votes), several hundred voters were routed to the wrong precinct by an election official. So democrats are likely to petition in court for a redo of that election - I assume that's unlikely, but who knows.

But wait! Today a three judge panel ruled that a vote that had been disqualified (because it had marks for both candidates, though the mark for the democrat had seemingly been crossed out) should count for the Republican, SO now the race is literally tied.

Apparently the procedure (unless something changes the vote total again) is to actually flip a coin to decide the winner. The loser can then request a second recount, which I'm guessing that they will.

[Skinypupy]

GOP Rep in Minnesota refuses to meet with high school students because...wait for it...she might get falsely accused of sexual harassment.

In a Facebook post explaining her refusal to meet with student members of the Alexandria Area High School Democrats, Franson alluded to Roy Moore, the Alabama GOP Senate candidate accused of initiating an inappropriate sexual relationship with a high school girl while he was in his 30s.

“A man’s life was destroyed in AL,” Franson wrote in a Facebook message. “40 years ago he met with minors alone and they recently accused him of horrendous actions. In the world of we must believe every sexual harassment claim, I would think my approach is beyond reasonable. All it takes is one perceived action and my life is destroyed. The life of my family is destroyed. That is a risk I will not take.”

OK, no one tell her that minors can actually, you know, go outside. She'll be confined to her home for years!

[GreenGoo]

Bringing hope to the future of America.

[Kraken]

During the child-abuse hysteria in the 1980s-90s Wife and I made a point of never, ever being alone with any toddler under any circumstances (not a big sacrifice since neither of us likes kids anyway). As non-parents we would have been convicted on the slightest suspicion. You do have to be careful when these waves sweep the culture and a mere accusation is enough to ruin your career, or even your life. And yes, the #MeToo thing is veering into that territory.

[GreenGoo]

And yes, the #MeToo thing is veering into that territory.

How so? I'm willing to entertain the idea, but I'm following along for the most part and have not seen what you describe. Please elaborate.

Plus, the idea that this politician doesn't want to meet kids because some time in the future she might be ruined is ridiculous on the face of it. First, there is no expectation that she be alone with anyone. Presumably there would be additional adults chaperoning and organizing, including her own people. Second, and this is key, don't try to get into any of their pants and you won't have your career ruined years later.

[Skinypupy]

During the child-abuse hysteria in the 1980s-90s Wife and I made a point of never, ever being alone with any toddler under any circumstances (not a big sacrifice since neither of us likes kids anyway). As non-parents we would have been convicted on the slightest suspicion. You do have to be careful when these waves sweep the culture and a mere accusation is enough to ruin your career, or even your life. And yes, the #MeToo thing is veering into that territory.

That's the absurd thing about her statement. How hard would it be to bring someone with her? Record the meeting? Have the meeting in a public place? Have the parents of the kids present?

There's any number of options that wouldn't make her look like an utterly insane person who is too cowardly to speak with high school students because they are *gasp* liberals.

[Isgrimnur]

ChiTrib

Republican Roy Moore hasn't conceded his 20,000-vote loss to Democrat Doug Jones in Alabama's Senate race, and military and provisional vote totals announced Wednesday aren't enough for Moore to close the deficit.
...
Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill announced Wednesday that a total of 366 military ballots were returned from overseas. He also said 4,967 provisional ballots were cast. Even if all of those votes went to Moore, that is well short of the 20,000-vote deficit that Moore would need to close the gap. It also would not be enough to trigger an automatic recount.

"No additional ballots are eligible to be received," Merrill's office said in announcing those last ballot totals.
...
On Friday, counties are to submit the tallies for 22,780 write-in votes cast Dec. 12. However, most of those are expected to go to other people and not Jones and Moore, whose names were on the ballot.
...
Alabama will certify the election result between Dec. 26 and Jan. 3.