Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[Ralph-Wiggum]

UNC announced yesterday that the positivity last week was over 31%.

[Daehawk]

I think they want everyone to get it and either die or get well and return to classes. That way they dont have to fool with it for a months again.

[Smoove_B]

UNC announced yesterday that the positivity last week was over 31%.

Iowa State is at ~14% after the first week of classes.

During the first week of classes (Aug. 17-23), 957 students, faculty and staff were tested on campus with a total of 130 positive cases for a positivity rate of 13.6%. There are currently 204 positive individuals still within their 10-day CDC-defined isolation period. Nineteen are isolating in on-campus housing. There are 385 individuals still in their 14-day CDC-defined quarantine period due to close contact with a known positive. Thirty-one of these individuals are quarantining in on-campus housing.

“We are monitoring the data closely to quickly identify and address trends,” said Kristen Obbink, ISU’s COVID-19 public health coordinator. “The university is taking a targeted approach with testing, which allows us to take the appropriate steps to reduce the spread of infection. Our public health team is providing case investigation and contact tracing. We also have adequate isolation and quarantine housing available.”

[Enough]

UNC announced yesterday that the positivity last week was over 31%.

Iowa State is at ~14% after the first week of classes.

During the first week of classes (Aug. 17-23), 957 students, faculty and staff were tested on campus with a total of 130 positive cases for a positivity rate of 13.6%. There are currently 204 positive individuals still within their 10-day CDC-defined isolation period. Nineteen are isolating in on-campus housing. There are 385 individuals still in their 14-day CDC-defined quarantine period due to close contact with a known positive. Thirty-one of these individuals are quarantining in on-campus housing.

“We are monitoring the data closely to quickly identify and address trends,” said Kristen Obbink, ISU’s COVID-19 public health coordinator. “The university is taking a targeted approach with testing, which allows us to take the appropriate steps to reduce the spread of infection. Our public health team is providing case investigation and contact tracing. We also have adequate isolation and quarantine housing available.”

I've seen them with higher numbers depending on how you break them down and they don't even count antigen tests.

[Smoove_B]

Hadn't seen that, ugh. If only we had some type of gigantic, all-encompassing policy that every state was following. I'm not sure what type of agency or public official would help to see that happen. Maybe in 2021 we'll create a system that's never before be in place to address this.

[$iljanus]

Hadn't seen that, ugh. If only we had some type of gigantic, all-encompassing policy that every state was following. I'm not sure what type of agency or public official would help to see that happen. Maybe in 2021 we'll create a system that's never before be in place to address this.

Whatever agency that would handle such a novel thing should probably have a catchy name that can be referred to by three initials. And maybe the first and last initial could be the same?

[Isgrimnur]

Hadn't seen that, ugh. If only we had some type of gigantic, all-encompassing policy that every state was following. I'm not sure what type of agency or public official would help to see that happen. Maybe in 2021 we'll create a system that's never before be in place to address this.

Whatever agency that would handle such a novel thing should probably have a catchy name that can be referred to by three initials. And maybe the first and last initial could be the same?

Don't forget the silent P.

[El Guapo]

https://twitter.com/DKThomp/status/1298421178642632705

Just looking at this, and it reminded me of a question that I've been thinking about. How do I judge whether a place is well ventilated or poorly ventilated? I assume it's mostly about whether there is regular air flow? Early on I had been thinking that air flow (from air conditioners or whatnot) was bad because it would spread virus particles around. But maybe it's good because it disperses virus particles rather than letting them accumulate in particular areas?

[Zaxxon]

Just looking at this, and it reminded me of a question that I've been thinking about. How do I judge whether a place is well ventilated or poorly ventilated? I assume it's mostly about whether there is regular air flow? Early on I had been thinking that air flow (from air conditioners or whatnot) was bad because it would spread virus particles around. But maybe it's good because it disperses virus particles rather than letting them accumulate in particular areas?

I thought the key was *external* air flow, not just air flow/recirculation. Our company building management and school have both mentioned specifically that they've greatly increased external air intake.

[Scraper]

Hadn't seen that, ugh. If only we had some type of gigantic, all-encompassing policy that every state was following. I'm not sure what type of agency or public official would help to see that happen. Maybe in 2021 we'll create a system that's never before be in place to address this.

Whatever agency that would handle such a novel thing should probably have a catchy name that can be referred to by three initials. And maybe the first and last initial could be the same?

I just wish someone in the Federal Government would have thought to create a Pandemic Playbook and handed it off for future leaders to follow. Crazy wish I know.

[Smoove_B]

I thought the key was *external* air flow, not just air flow/recirculation. Our company building management and school have both mentioned specifically that they've greatly increased external air intake.

Right - dilution is the solution. You're ideally mixing in fresh/outdoor air and actively removing the "stale" air from the indoor environment. The rub is how then you're moving the air around and getting it away from people. If you're blowing or drafting it and creating air currents, is that increasing spread by moving particulates?

How do I judge whether a place is well ventilated or poorly ventilated?

Is it fully indoors, i.e surrounded by 4 walls? Poorly ventilated. Is there an open window? Slightly better. Are there 2+ windows that can promote a draft? Better. Are you under a pavilion / tent structure that has no walls, only a ceiling? Even better.

Think about using Testor's model cement or a can of spray paint. If you can imagine that you'll be choking or your eyes will be burning if you try to use it in the area you're currently in, it's poorly ventilated.

[LawBeefaroni]

Just looking at this, and it reminded me of a question that I've been thinking about. How do I judge whether a place is well ventilated or poorly ventilated? I assume it's mostly about whether there is regular air flow? Early on I had been thinking that air flow (from air conditioners or whatnot) was bad because it would spread virus particles around. But maybe it's good because it disperses virus particles rather than letting them accumulate in particular areas?

My rule, if it has open doors/windows then it's ventilated. The more, the better. Internal recycling, even if it has external intake, doesn't move the needle. You have no idea how they work or how they air circulates.

[ImLawBoy]

What about a recently constructed (last 5-7 years) supermarket? High ceilings, cranking air conditioner, but no open windows? Some food prep areas with what I assume are externally venting fans.

[malchior]

I thought the key was *external* air flow, not just air flow/recirculation. Our company building management and school have both mentioned specifically that they've greatly increased external air intake.

Right - dilution is the solution. You're ideally mixing in fresh/outdoor air and actively removing the "stale" air from the indoor environment. The rub is how then you're moving the air around and getting it away from people. If you're blowing or drafting it and creating air currents, is that increasing spread by moving particulates?

How do I judge whether a place is well ventilated or poorly ventilated?

Is it fully indoors, i.e surrounded by 4 walls? Poorly ventilated. Is there an open window? Slightly better. Are there 2+ windows that can promote a draft? Better. Are you under a pavilion / tent structure that has no walls, only a ceiling? Even better.

Think about using Testor's model cement or a can of spray paint. If you can imagine that you'll be choking or your eyes will be burning if you try to use it in the area you're currently in, it's poorly ventilated.

Or just assume poorly ventilated if reasonable to do so.

[El Guapo]

The rub is how then you're moving the air around and getting it away from people. If you're blowing or drafting it and creating air currents, is that increasing spread by moving particulates?

I take it that this is an open question for which we don't really have a great answer?

Part of it is also that I've seen a few articles that suggest that airplane ventilation systems are great and that as such the risk of coronavirus spreading on an airplane is much lower than one would think. Not that I'm planning on flying anytime soon, but it raised the question for me of the ability of a good ventilation system to make an indoor environment relatively low risk.

With the understanding that windows / doors / etc. are good rules of thumb for assessing ventilation, since I'm not going to conduct extensive research on any given building.

[LawBeefaroni]

What about a recently constructed (last 5-7 years) supermarket? High ceilings, cranking air conditioner, but no open windows? Some food prep areas with what I assume are externally venting fans.

Volume is more of a factor in a place like that. There is enough air volume that direct ventilation isn't as important.

I think that table should differentiate low and high density rather than high and low occupancy. 50 people spread throughout a large supermarket with no open windows is better than 50 people in a house party with a bunch of open windows.

[LawBeefaroni]

We have a consultant that uses the empty office next to mine. She is here a few times a week. We chat a fair amount.

This morning she told me that she tested positive for antibodies. "A lot of them!"

I reckon I should get the same test.

[Zaxxon]

This morning she told me that she tested positive for antibodies. "A lot of them!"

The best antibodies.

Believe me.

[Smoove_B]

Part of it is also that I've seen a few articles that suggest that airplane ventilation systems are great and that as such the risk of coronavirus spreading on an airplane is much lower than one would think. Not that I'm planning on flying anytime soon, but it raised the question for me of the ability of a good ventilation system to make an indoor environment relatively low risk.

Unless the airline industry is lying to me, cabin air is run through HEPA filtration - which (in theory) should be removing larger (but still microscopic) virus laden particulates and (in theory) naked virus just floating around. I say "in theory" because we just don't know for sure - we're guessing based on what we do know and what the HEPA filters are capable of. I think the mountain of data is strong, but until it's been confirmed in a lab we won't have a demonstrated verification of the theory.

The reason an airplane can use HEPA filtration is because of the volume of air. As mentioned by Lawbeef, the volume of air is also a consideration - which feeds back into the "dilution is the solution" element I mentioned earlier.

Yes, going into a giant box store or supermarket that is occupancy rated for 500 people but only allowing 75 in is helping to keep the air contamination diluted. Add in people wearing masks and the risk drops even lower.

If we knew HEPA was 99.97% effective against the virus (as we expect it to be), then you might think we should just simply install HEPA filtration on all the HVAC units in corporate buildings, schools and other structures where large volumes of air are being recirculated. Unfortunately, like plumbing, HVAC craft is wizardry and the motors used to move air would be stressed and likely break if you forced them to move air through a restricted filtration media (like a HEPA filter).

For reference, this is also why random people shouldn't be wearing a filtered mask like an N-95 - it absolutely stresses your heart and lungs to do so. You can wear one, but you should be medically evaluated and "fit tested" to verify you're not going to have an issue while wearing it. This is true for any type of filtered mask or anyone wearing supplied air (SCBA).

Anyway, retrofitting or upgrading an HVAC system to allow for HEPA filtration would be expensive (at best) or mechanically impossible (design / space). so the current recommendation then would be to increase outside/makeup air into the mix and just move more fresh air into the space being occupied.

Thanks for coming to my Ted talk.

[wonderpug]

Part of it is also that I've seen a few articles that suggest that airplane ventilation systems are great and that as such the risk of coronavirus spreading on an airplane is much lower than one would think.

A relative of mine was planning on some air travel recently, and I did some Google research trying to find examples of why air travel is a horrible idea. I ended up finding similar things to what you're reading -- being on an airplane with other people is relatively the same level of risk of sitting in the same arrangement with them on benches in a large building. The airplane risk seems to be more about direct close interaction with people seated near you, not about growing accumulations in the air like in the church choir or restaurant incidents.

[$iljanus]

Well, this certainly doesn't come as a surprise at all.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/26/worl ... k-75471d37

"The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention was instructed by higher-ups within the Trump administration to modify its coronavirus testing guidelines this week to exclude people who do not have symptoms of Covid-19 — even if they have been recently exposed to the virus, according to two federal health officials.
One official said the directive came from the top down. Another said the guidelines were not written by the C.D.C. but were forced down.
Admiral Brett M. Giroir, the administration’s coronavirus testing czar, told reporters the guidelines ultimately belong to the C.D.C., specifically its director, Dr. Robert Redfield. But he also said other members of President Trump’s coronavirus task force were involved."

I'm sure top men were involved...

[Ralph-Wiggum]

Not surprisingly, reports are coming out that the change in the CDC guidance about who should be tested (i.e. stating that asymptomatic people in contact with infected people don't need to be tested) were directed by the WH. It seems like a blatantly obvious way to artificially reduce infection numbers, especially now that schools and universities are opening up and causes huge spikes in infections. And, like everything directed by the WH re; Covid, it has the intent of making things look better while making the actual situation much worse.

edit: and I've been bammed.

[Enough]

Not surprisingly, reports are coming out that the change in the CDC guidance about who should be tested (i.e. stating that asymptomatic people in contact with infected people don't need to be tested) were directed by the WH. It seems like a blatantly obvious way to artificially reduce infection numbers, especially now that schools and universities are opening up and causes huge spikes in infections. And, like everything directed by the WH re; Covid, it has the intent of making things look better while making the actual situation much worse.

edit: and I've been bammed.

Out of the loop... bammed?

[$iljanus]

As I keep reading about the pressure being brought upon the CDC I think we've all been bammed in a different way from this administration.

[Enough]

So it looks like the testing changes were put through while Faunci was unconscious from surgery:

https://twitter.com/KatiePhang/status/1 ... 3532453890

https://twitter.com/KatiePhang/status/1 ... 3532453890

Spoiler:

“I was under general anesthesia in the operating room and was not part of any discussion or deliberation regarding the new testing recommendations.”

Hard to pick the bleakest point on the current timeline: COVIDsanity? BLM chaos? Wildfire-paloza? Hurricane of doom? Gutting of American greatness? What a time to be alive.

[Holman]

So it looks like the testing changes were put through while Faunci was unconscious from surgery:

https://twitter.com/KatiePhang/status/1 ... 3532453890

https://twitter.com/KatiePhang/status/1 ... 3532453890

Spoiler:

“I was under general anesthesia in the operating room and was not part of any discussion or deliberation regarding the new testing recommendations.”

Hard to pick the bleakest point on the current timeline: COVIDsanity? BLM chaos? Wildfire-paloza? Hurricane of doom? Gutting of American greatness? What a time to be alive.

That he comes out and says this without endorsing the new standards is everything.

He'll be fired as soon as Trump thinks it's possible.

[Smoove_B]

So it looks like the testing changes were put through while Faunci was unconscious from surgery

Haven't used this gif in a few weeks.

[Smoove_B]

In case anyone is looking for perspective on testing:

https://twitter.com/AlfredLRoca/status/ ... 1978221569

My university is testing all students and staff 2x/wk.

So it processed 17,000 coronavirus tests yesterday.

That is 2.7 percent of all testing done across the entire United States.

That is not a typo.

We should be doing this for *all* schools that are having in-person instruction right now, K-12.

[malchior]

DOJ wants to investigate blue states over nursing home deaths

[malchior]

In case anyone is looking for perspective on testing:

https://twitter.com/AlfredLRoca/status/ ... 1978221569

My university is testing all students and staff 2x/wk.

So it processed 17,000 coronavirus tests yesterday.

That is 2.7 percent of all testing done across the entire United States.

That is not a typo.

We should be doing this for *all* schools that are having in-person instruction right now, K-12.

Well they are asymptomatic so they don't need to be tested, right?

[LawBeefaroni]

We should be doing this for *all* schools that are having in-person instruction right now, K-12.

If we did, the tests, if there were enough, would take months to process.

[Daehawk]

Scrotumger's Test. You're both infected and not infected as long as the test stays in the box.

[Holman]

I took a test today at my university. It wasn't the probe-up-the-nose, but instead one that involved spitting into a tube for about three minutes until I'd produced a sufficient volume of saliva.

I'm told that I'll get results in two or three days. They won't indicate whether I've got the antibodies, but they'll tell me whether I had the virus at the time of the spitting.

[malchior]

I took a test today at my university. It wasn't the probe-up-the-nose, but instead one that involved spitting into a tube for about three minutes until I'd produced a sufficient volume of saliva.

Developed at Rutgers btw!

[Enough]

Hard not to get whiplash these days,

https://twitter.com/B52Malmet/status/12 ... 6662860800

https://twitter.com/B52Malmet/status/12 ... 6662860800

Spoiler:

Dr. Redfield reverses the stupid CDC stance that people exposed to #Covid who show no symptoms should not be tested. So much chaos, so little time.

[Daehawk]

Welp time to close the government and go back to bartering for everything. Too much political dick wagging to actually get anything real done. The capital shall be Bartertown. We'll need a woman with big hair to run it and a little guy to take care of pigs and power then we're set. Seems like an upgrade to me.

[malchior]

This is fascinating.

https://twitter.com/cfishman/status/1299050153261912064

https://twitter.com/cfishman/status/1299051182133055491

https://twitter.com/cfishman/status/1299051941864013825

https://twitter.com/cfishman/status/1299052728115748865

https://twitter.com/cfishman/status/1299053523926159365

https://twitter.com/cfishman/status/1299054304142204928

[Isgrimnur]

Let’s hear it for the Wildcats!

[LawBeefaroni]

What a shitty way to test students.

[Skinypupy]